Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
Welcome back
Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
Thanks.
No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
A 15th anniversary amnesty? Welcome back Sam!
My neighbour who was posted in Portugal for a couple of years mentioned getting a parking fine and paying it very promptly. When he told his Portuguese friends they were all aghast.
"Don't you know the Pope is visiting next month?"
Apparently the Portuguese tradition is that a Papal visit is celebrated with an amnesty on all outstanding parking and speeding fines.
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
If we are going to have a foreigner I would rather have Barnier. As I have said on here a number of times before he has played the whole thing with such a straight bat and with a clear sense of honour that I suspect he is a secret fan of our noble game of cricket.
Fair play😌
Barnier would make a superb PM.
Agreed that's settled.
Don't tell Shirley the racist
Who?
She's gone just been on 5 live
Loves TM hates foreigners taken all the jobs that our 6th formers should be getting.
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
The difference is that while they can't all be PM, they can all agree on policy (potentially), and they can all serve in the same government. Lidington PM, Gove Ch/Ex, Hunt FS would be one obvious possibility.
I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
Yes.
What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
The difference is that while they can't all be PM, they can all agree on policy (potentially), and they can all serve in the same government. Lidington PM, Gove Ch/Ex, Hunt FS would be one obvious possibility.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
Their members are Remainian though. And they don't have to vote down brexit, they just have to vote down the soft brexit that all the most pro-brexit people are saying is a sell-out. Would they defy a whip to back the government? Jeremy Corbyn won't back the government, right?
They would not be backing the government, the indicative votes would be done on a free vote basis so the government will not take a position on any of them bar MV3.
Whichever of the indicative votes got most support the Government would swing behind. Plus Sturgeon was proposing a SM and CU compromise only a few months ago anyway. Corbyn's backbenchers mostly hate him and will do their own thing.
It is this pathetic party politics approach to everything on Brexit which prevents us getting a solution to Brexit
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?
Because I don't.
The deal will be done with Watson.
Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
Watson would not do a deal that the majority of the PLP and party membership could not support. And their price would be a second referendum. Any deal with any opposition party will involve a second referendum. And the ERG will never agree to that.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
And therefore the Tories will split. The ERG and the bulk of the membership will go off and join UKIP and/or the Farage party and the rest will be left to throw in their lot with the tiggers.
Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
The difference is that while they can't all be PM, they can all agree on policy (potentially), and they can all serve in the same government. Lidington PM, Gove Ch/Ex, Hunt FS would be one obvious possibility.
Or Government of National Unity Lidington PM Gove Ch Umunna FS Watson HS
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
Do you think Corbyn would do a deal with Hunt?
Because I don't.
The deal will be done with Watson.
Corbyn doesn't want a deal. We all know that.
Labour's price is the CU (and some detail around rights). The LD/TIG price is Ref2. Suspect government will prefer Labour's.
Watson would not do a deal that the majority of the PLP and party membership could not support. And their price would be a second referendum. Any deal with any opposition party will involve a second referendum. And the ERG will never agree to that.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
And therefore the Tories will split. The ERG and the bulk of the membership will go off and join UKIP and/or the Farage party and the rest will be left to throw in their lot with the tiggers.
Labour would then split too with the non Corbynistas also joining the Tiggers
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
Their members are Remainian though. And they don't have to vote down brexit, they just have to vote down the soft brexit that all the most pro-brexit people are saying is a sell-out. Would they defy a whip to back the government? Jeremy Corbyn won't back the government, right?
They would not be backing the government, the indicative votes would be done on a free vote basis so the government will not take a position on any of them bar MV3.
Whichever of the indicative votes got most support the Government would swing behind. Plus Sturgeon was proposing a SM and CU compromise only a few months ago anyway. Corbyn's backbenchers mostly hate him and will do their own thing.
It is this pathetic party politics approach to everything on Brexit which prevents us getting a solution to Brexit
The problem isn't the indicative votes. CU can probably pass an indicative vote.
The problem is some unlucky person has to go and negotiate an actual deal, then bring it back to parliament, where half the people who supported it in the indicative vote will vote against it, at which point we'll be back where we started.
What a great 15th birthday. I have read PB for 12 years during Angus Reid etc., and it has never been better as a politics site, while the betting remains personally profitable if rarer.
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
FWIW I have reason to think that Hunt is also open to a deal with Labour, which presumably means customs union.
But remaining in the CU while outside the SM is pretty pointless; we get all the downsides and few of the upsides. We may as well Remain.
Trying to cobble a Brexit deal in panic in 3 weeks is ludicrous. Far better to revoke, participate in the EU elections and take a year, whatever it takes, to work out what we want to do and come up with a realistic well-thought out plan with as much cross-party consensus as possible.
I thought you were up for a CU + SM Brexit?
It seems to me to be a bit pointless. We end up following rules without having a say in them. That’s not taking back control. In fact, it’s humiliating for a self-respecting country. It’s just a formal version of May kicking her heels in a side room while the EU decided what extension they would grant.
Indeed. And that’s why I challenged you on it for being pointless over the many months (up until now) that you were advocating it.
I have not been advocating any Brexit for some time now. I would prefer to remain in the SM to not being in. But the more bits of the EU you want to stay in, the more this shows up the fact that you are agreeing to be bound by rules you don’t have a say in. So that is one reason why I have decided that on balance better to Remain. But my main reasons are (1) the absolute hash being made of Brexit by Brexiteers; (2) my concerns about a no deal exit; and (3) the changed geopolitical landscape since June 2016.
The ERG will clearly vote against anything (other than no deal) and therefore can, and must, be written off if the crisis is to be solved. That much is obvious.
ERG will vote against any EU relationship short of mining the Channel.
Corbyn will whip against anything the Tories suggest.
Most of Labour backbench and SNP/LDs/Tig will vote against anything that involves leaving.
The DUP will just say no to everything out of habit.
How can anyone pass anything?
Not really true, indicative votes will be free votes and most Labour backbenchers come from Leave seats and would happily vote for BINO, as may even the SNP given over a third of SNP voters voted Leave
Their members are Remainian though. And they don't have to vote down brexit, they just have to vote down the soft brexit that all the most pro-brexit people are saying is a sell-out. Would they defy a whip to back the government? Jeremy Corbyn won't back the government, right?
They would not be backing the government, the indicative votes would be done on a free vote basis so the government will not take a position on any of them bar MV3.
Whichever of the indicative votes got most support the Government would swing behind. Plus Sturgeon was proposing a SM and CU compromise only a few months ago anyway. Corbyn's backbenchers mostly hate him and will do their own thing.
It is this pathetic party politics approach to everything on Brexit which prevents us getting a solution to Brexit
The problem isn't the indicative votes. CU can probably pass an indicative vote.
The problem is some unlucky person has to go and negotiate an actual deal, then bring it back to parliament, where half the people who supported it in the indicative vote will vote against it, at which point we'll be back where we started.
The argument is not on the WA but the PD, the latter is what most of the indicative votes would be on, once a new PD was agreed the WA would pass as it is just really about the technicalities of Brexit.
No reason if necessary the WA could not be on a free vote basis either if absolutely necessary with the Government only taking over if it passes
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
What price are you on at?
100/1.
Wow good chance of winning good stuff.
Have I ever mentioned I tipped Hunt at 100/1 and 66/1 as well?
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
What price are you on at?
100/1.
Wow good chance of winning good stuff.
Have I ever mentioned I tipped Hunt at 100/1 and 66/1 as well?
The argument is not on the WA but the PD, the latter is what most of the indicative votes would be on, once a new PD was agreed the WA would pass as it is just really about the technicalities of Brexit
The PD isn't legally binding and we know that nearly all Tories oppose making brexit softer, and the ERG and DUP are good at getting their way. If I'm a Labour MP voting for the current WA, why would I trust the government to deliver the CU?
Not as daft as it sounds. It would be hard not to give the members a say this time round and so the best time to run a Con leadership contest would be over the summer.
Getting a referendum, winning it, then being prevented from leaving by a combination of the two major parties is almost too predictable
Welcome back
Thank you Robert, nice to be allowed back.
Yay, the man is back! Any good tips?
Thanks.
No I'm clueless! I had £37 at 1000 on Portillo to take over from May in a Jose/Ole stylee!!
I like doing that with really long-term, long-odds bets as it really messes with people to have their money tied up for years for a negligible return.
It was a bet with the heart not the head. I just saw a parallel between Mourinho's ability to mess up a good opportunity with the tools at his disposal by being too defensive and stubborn, and May's handling of Brexit. Portillo was suggested to me as the ex crowd favourite that could go in with some energy and style it out.
I think I would have been happy enough for that to happen that I didnt need to waste money on it though!
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
What price are you on at?
100/1.
Wow good chance of winning good stuff.
Have I ever mentioned I tipped Hunt at 100/1 and 66/1 as well?
It only counts if they win. Anyone can tip long-priced losers. I tipped Hammond as the obvious candidate for just this men in grey suits scenario.
That is absurd. The Queen could not appoint anyone who could not command the support of the Commons in accordance with the procedure set out in the FTPA.
I've got to say, my Twitter feed hasn't been this lively since the night of the Cameron/pig romance story.
Did we ever get to the bottom of that initiation ceremony?
It was fake news.
Cameron was clearly Bullingdon Club material and you cannot be a member of the Piers Gaveston Society at the same time. The Piers Gaveston society is for plebs who think they are poshos, again ruling out Dave.
Totally unrelated, here's a story about the time Boris Johnson was sacked from The Times for making stuff up about Piers Gaveston.
Not as daft as it sounds. It would be hard not to give the members a say this time round and so the best time to run a Con leadership contest would be over the summer.
Yep - the Tories elect a leader in June / July followed by a general election in late October...
Who was the last PM not to have been an election winning LOTO, nor a former holder of one of the big 3 posts. Ps, not a quiz question, a genuine inquiry.
Ramsay Macdonald as PM in 1923, but not leader of largest party?
Good spot. Neither LOTO or former holder of one of the big 3 means Victorian times then, I presume?
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
What price are you on at?
100/1.
Wow good chance of winning good stuff.
Have I ever mentioned I tipped Hunt at 100/1 and 66/1 as well?
It only counts if they win. Anyone can tip long-priced losers. I tipped Hammond as the obvious candidate for just this men in grey suits scenario.
That is absurd. The Queen could not appoint anyone who could not command the support of the Commons in accordance with the procedure set out in the FTPA.
Twitter is suggesting the headbangers would VONC Lidington.
If he wins, by definition he could be PM.
If he loses, I think that would mean a General Election, and Brexit postponed (cancelled). Is that really what the ERG want?
£13 has been traded on Betfair on Lidington to be Next PM at 999/1. Someone should be feeling nervous. And someone else should be feeling very happy (unless they traded out at a stupidly high price themselves)
I think it was Alastair Meeks who took the 999/1.
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
What price are you on at?
100/1.
Wow good chance of winning good stuff.
Lidington was 100/1 with Betfred in December just after May delayed the first meaningful vote and had won the no confidence vote. At that time and with those odds it was worth the bet (an hour or so later the odds dropped to 40/1)..
Not as daft as it sounds. It would be hard not to give the members a say this time round and so the best time to run a Con leadership contest would be over the summer.
Yep - the Tories elect a leader in June / July followed by a general election in late October...
Well that's OK.
The problem is the small matter of the 3 months where we apparently have a Prime Minister nobody has ever heard of or voted for foisted upon us with the sole aim of pissing all over the 2016 referendum.
The argument is not on the WA but the PD, the latter is what most of the indicative votes would be on, once a new PD was agreed the WA would pass as it is just really about the technicalities of Brexit
The PD isn't legally binding and we know that nearly all Tories oppose making brexit softer, and the ERG and DUP are good at getting their way. If I'm a Labour MP voting for the current WA, why would I trust the government to deliver the CU?
Based on the last few months, I have no confidence that Labour MPs in general understand the distinction between the WA and the PD (also quite a few Tories).
Also it gets them out of any blame for No Deal, allows them to claim victory in stopping Hard Tory Brexit, gives them the opportunity to cry betrayal further down the line and makes Rejoin easier. What's not to like?
I've got to say, my Twitter feed hasn't been this lively since the night of the Cameron/pig romance story.
Did we ever get to the bottom of that initiation ceremony?
Cameron was clearly Bullingdon Club material and you cannot be a member of the Piers Gaveston Society at the same time. The Piers Gaveston society is for plebs who think they are poshos, again ruling out Dave.
Isn't the Gaveston also for chaps who play for the home team, also making Cameron an unlikely member?
Anyway if this coup goes ahead, notice how European we are becoming. Just like Greece - Papandreou makes suggestion to the EU, they say no, he is forced to resign - and Italy - Berlusconi makes disobliging noises about the euro, the EU get cross and Berlusconi is replaced.
May goes to the EU Council, fails her viva, the EU let it be known that they won’t deal with her. Steps to remove her are now being taken, apparently. It’s the EU way.
I really thought that one didn't work. The character in the film was warning the person not to say it again or else, not asking him to
Quite right. Would be cracking on a pro Brexit anti 2nd ref march though.
Yes.
What really surprised me was the lack of attention paid to the claim that the petition organiser had been guilty of some pretty nasty threatening comments towards Theresa May, as well as talking of modifying weapons to use etc. It was on Guido, so maybe people know it to be overstated, but in the light of the murder of Jo Cox I thought people would be appalled at such behavior rather than following it in gung ho
"Mrs Georgiadou has faced criticism over posts she allegedly made on social media, using threatening language about the prime minister. She said she had no memory of the posts."
That's certainly one way of putting it...I have a feeling if the petition was pro-Brexit the BBC might have provided a bit more detail.
Mrs Georgiadou appears to be a fellow resident of my local ward. Out of interest I scanned her public Facebook, though not as far back as the alleged offending post. She's clearly a full on fanatical FBPE type, it is clear she is not fond of the Tories, but there was not much at all in the way of bile.
I do not know what part of the ward she resides in, but rest assured I now have half an eye out for roving Fascistic bully boys.
Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
The difference is that while they can't all be PM, they can all agree on policy (potentially), and they can all serve in the same government. Lidington PM, Gove Ch/Ex, Hunt FS would be one obvious possibility.
Spreadshit Phil ain't going to like Gove as CoE
No, well he can nurse his grievances from the backbenches. He's had a good run: 9 years in the cabinet (or 14 including the shadow cabinet), and 5 in a great office of state. At 63, it's time for him to step back - that and the fact that he's politically tin-eared.
Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
The difference is that while they can't all be PM, they can all agree on policy (potentially), and they can all serve in the same government. Lidington PM, Gove Ch/Ex, Hunt FS would be one obvious possibility.
Or Government of National Unity Lidington PM Gove Ch Umunna FS Watson HS
Not as daft as it sounds. It would be hard not to give the members a say this time round and so the best time to run a Con leadership contest would be over the summer.
Yep - the Tories elect a leader in June / July followed by a general election in late October...
Well that's OK.
The problem is the small matter of the 3 months where we apparently have a Prime Minister nobody has ever heard of or voted for foisted upon us with the sole aim of pissing all over the 2016 referendum.
If anything though, this makes the point for people who voted Leave better than anything else... we won, and Westminster couldn't bring themselves to accept it.
I was prepared to let whoever was in government implement Brexit however thay saw fit. But now the chance is there to destroy the two old parties (and the TIGs ) Whether anyone has the guts to do it is another matter
That is absurd. The Queen could not appoint anyone who could not command the support of the Commons in accordance with the procedure set out in the FTPA.
If he loses, I think that would mean a General Election, and Brexit postponed (cancelled). Is that really what the ERG want?
Couldn't it also mean a No Deal crash out, which would suit the loonies just fine?
The EU have said "agreed WA" or "new plan", not "more faffing around".
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Annoying Steve Baker is a great and noble cause. I support this wholeheartedly.
If the tories put a remainer in charge like Lidington they will destroy their party the associations will be in uproar and the party will split . I would think the erg will no confidence the governement in that situation and force a GE and many will switch to brexit party It’s about to get very nasty
I've got to say, my Twitter feed hasn't been this lively since the night of the Cameron/pig romance story.
Did we ever get to the bottom of that initiation ceremony?
Cameron was clearly Bullingdon Club material and you cannot be a member of the Piers Gaveston Society at the same time. The Piers Gaveston society is for plebs who think they are poshos, again ruling out Dave.
Isn't the Gaveston also for chaps who play for the home team, also making Cameron an unlikely member?
Pass, I can only go on what my former Teddy Hall educated boss told me.
Not as daft as it sounds. It would be hard not to give the members a say this time round and so the best time to run a Con leadership contest would be over the summer.
Yep - the Tories elect a leader in June / July followed by a general election in late October...
Well that's OK.
The problem is the small matter of the 3 months where we apparently have a Prime Minister nobody has ever heard of or voted for foisted upon us with the sole aim of pissing all over the 2016 referendum.
The referendum result is only not delivered if we do not legally leave the EU. No Tory leader would countenance that.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
.
There is no such mechanism. And the fact that some people apparently think otherwise shows how detached from reality the Tories have become.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
The EU have said "agreed WA" or "new plan", not "more faffing around".
General Elections sounds like "new plan" to me, especially if followed by another referendum and cancellation...
What "new plan" might emerge from a GE? No guarantee of either another referendum or a cancellation. Despite what Tory MPs & the Cabinet thinks May is still more popular than them - they go to the country after ousting her and they'll get massacred.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Temporary PM not leader, but in any case, they could appoint a new leader without an election by agreeing that no-one will stand against the heir presumptive. This is what happened when Michael Howard replaced IDS.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Temporary PM not leader, but in any case, they could appoint a new leader without an election by agreeing that no-one will stand against the heir presumptive. This is what happened when Michael Howard replaced IDS.
That was choosing a LOTO.
What the Tories choose to do when they are in opposition is up to them. Its an entirely different matter when you're talking about the Prime Minister of a country.
Three candidates -- Gove, Hunt and Lidington -- with none commanding majority support. This coup is a perfect analogy for Brexit.
Which is why we cannot completely rule out a fourth candidate emerging.
The difference is that while they can't all be PM, they can all agree on policy (potentially), and they can all serve in the same government. Lidington PM, Gove Ch/Ex, Hunt FS would be one obvious possibility.
Spreadshit Phil ain't going to like Gove as CoE
No, well he can nurse his grievances from the backbenches. He's had a good run: 9 years in the cabinet (or 14 including the shadow cabinet), and 5 in a great office of state. At 63, it's time for him to step back - that and the fact that he's politically tin-eared.
Hammond's age and good run might make him a more plausible candidate to be temporary PM than those touted. Lidington hasn't the bottom, and Gove and Hunt might decline to step down after their three months is up -- remember Granita?
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
What would happen if she were taken ill and couldn't continue on those grounds? I'm assuming someone would take over as interim PM without consulting MPs? Could she step aside "on health grounds"? Not at all that implausible that her physical and indeed mental health is deteriorating. Whatever you think of her, the stress must be immense.
Not as daft as it sounds. It would be hard not to give the members a say this time round and so the best time to run a Con leadership contest would be over the summer.
Yep - the Tories elect a leader in June / July followed by a general election in late October...
Well that's OK.
The problem is the small matter of the 3 months where we apparently have a Prime Minister nobody has ever heard of or voted for foisted upon us with the sole aim of pissing all over the 2016 referendum.
The referendum result is only not delivered if we do not legally leave the EU. No Tory leader would countenance that.
And the membership are then going to elect somebody pledged to unravelling the Lidington Super-shit Deal agreed in the meantime.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
What would happen if she were taken ill and couldn't continue on those grounds? I'm assuming someone would take over as interim PM without consulting MPs? Could she step aside "on health grounds"? Not at all that implausible that her physical and indeed mental health is deteriorating. Whatever you think of her, the stress must be immense.
Incredible that anyone would want the hassle really. The abuse she has got from all sides would be enough to break 99% of the population
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Temporary PM not leader, but in any case, they could appoint a new leader without an election by agreeing that no-one will stand against the heir presumptive. This is what happened when Michael Howard replaced IDS.
Someone commented on Thursday that electing a new party leader immediately was impossible as some or all of the ERG were likely to stand to make a coronation impossible. That's why Lidington as PM rather than leader was the best bet.
Commentator have you been here previously in another cricket related identity that only old school pb.com elements like me will recognise?
No. I have posted a few times before, more than a decade ago... but barely. Lurking otherwise since at least 05 and decided anniversary was the time to start posting.
Commentator not intended as reference to cricket, either Just uninspired pseudonym.
As one Shires Conservative MP observed during Thatcher's defenestration "The Tory Party only ever panics in a crisis" - and I think we're a bit beyond the Poll Tax here....
The Conservative Party has been dysfunctional all my adult life. It's MP's see their primary role as sticking the knife into each other, and bringing down the leader of the day. They shit on their own voters endlessly. May is useless, but no doubt they'll install someone else who's useless.
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.
Am I missing something here? If Tezza goes, by what mechanism do the cabinet install a new leader without consulting MPs, and almost certainly the members?
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
Temporary PM not leader, but in any case, they could appoint a new leader without an election by agreeing that no-one will stand against the heir presumptive. This is what happened when Michael Howard replaced IDS.
Would you say that the Conservatives give the impression of such harmony that someone would be elected unopposed?
Comments
"Don't you know the Pope is visiting next month?"
Apparently the Portuguese tradition is that a Papal visit is celebrated with an amnesty on all outstanding parking and speeding fines.
Loves TM hates foreigners taken all the jobs that our 6th formers should be getting.
100 times worse than Gordon Brown's bigoted woman
He's going to be unbearably smug if Lidington becomes next PM.
Whichever of the indicative votes got most support the Government would swing behind. Plus Sturgeon was proposing a SM and CU compromise only a few months ago anyway. Corbyn's backbenchers mostly hate him and will do their own thing.
It is this pathetic party politics approach to everything on Brexit which prevents us getting a solution to Brexit
Quality political action all round UK
The problem is some unlucky person has to go and negotiate an actual deal, then bring it back to parliament, where half the people who supported it in the indicative vote will vote against it, at which point we'll be back where we started.
No reason if necessary the WA could not be on a free vote basis either if absolutely necessary with the Government only taking over if it passes
March 2019
7/4
April 2019
7/2
I think I would have been happy enough for that to happen that I didnt need to waste money on it though!
The Tories have taken complete leave of their senses...
Cameron was clearly Bullingdon Club material and you cannot be a member of the Piers Gaveston Society at the same time. The Piers Gaveston society is for plebs who think they are poshos, again ruling out Dave.
Totally unrelated, here's a story about the time Boris Johnson was sacked from The Times for making stuff up about Piers Gaveston.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/mar/25/simon-hoggart-sketch-boris-johnson
Nice to see you back posting.
*Cough*Trading Bet*Cough.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
If he wins, by definition he could be PM.
If he loses, I think that would mean a General Election, and Brexit postponed (cancelled). Is that really what the ERG want?
The problem is the small matter of the 3 months where we apparently have a Prime Minister nobody has ever heard of or voted for foisted upon us with the sole aim of pissing all over the 2016 referendum.
Also it gets them out of any blame for No Deal, allows them to claim victory in stopping Hard Tory Brexit, gives them the opportunity to cry betrayal further down the line and makes Rejoin easier. What's not to like?
Annoying Steve Baker is a great and noble cause. I support this wholeheartedly.
The Tory Party might as well go to the vault and open that remaining flask of smallpox......
May goes to the EU Council, fails her viva, the EU let it be known that they won’t deal with her. Steps to remove her are now being taken, apparently. It’s the EU way.
I do not know what part of the ward she resides in, but rest assured I now have half an eye out for roving Fascistic bully boys.
I was prepared to let whoever was in government implement Brexit however thay saw fit. But now the chance is there to destroy the two old parties (and the TIGs
The EU have said "agreed WA" or "new plan", not "more faffing around".
Presumably the bookies wouldn't pay out on a temporary leader, while awaiting a permanent one.
It pains me to say it, but I think there's a good chance Corbyn is PM by the end of the year.
elements like me will recognise?
A new temporary PM, explicitly NOT party leader.
I would expect a new government to follow a different path from the current one. A new plan, if you will...
What the Tories choose to do when they are in opposition is up to them. Its an entirely different matter when you're talking about the Prime Minister of a country.
Could she step aside "on health grounds"? Not at all that implausible that her physical and indeed mental health is deteriorating. Whatever you think of her, the stress must be immense.
Commentator not intended as reference to cricket, either Just uninspired pseudonym.
In an ideal world, each and every Conservative MP would be taken out and shot. Then a new party could be formed from scratch.