politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time

NickPalmer said:

David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).

Wouldn't we need single market alignment for NI still?

Oh well, that'd piss off the DUP, what a shame.

AndyJS said:

The petition isn't proving popular in Walsall North. Only 1.4% have signed it there.

Do they have mobiles in Walsall?

Andrew said:

NickPalmer said:

David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).

Wouldn't we need single market alignment for NI still?

Oh well, that'd piss off the DUP, what a shame.

All it would do is make the temporary Customs Union for the UK permanent while keeping the Customs Union and Single Market alignment backstop for NI as is, it could get a majority in the Commons, certainly compared to any alternative

IanB2 said:

kyf_100 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Fair play to the Remainers, that was an impressive turnout today. I reckon Brexit might be done for.

+1.

The honest truth is that us leavers have had three years now to come up with a plan that works.

There was something close in our grasp, but the hardliners of the ERG rejected it as not being pure enough.

Revolutions eat their children...

The country has lost the will to leave.

Reality can kick like a mule.

@Casino

Fwiw, there were a lot of dogs there. Dogs Against Brexit seems to be a significant pressure group.

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

That worked well last time

DougSeal said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

That worked well last time

Last time we had a remainer pm who thought she could win a GE by promising the death tax. It was almost as if she wanted to blow her 24point lead on purpose it was that bad

HYUFD said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2

We all know how accurate the polls have been .#anyone but Theresa May and Jeremy corbyn

kjohnw said:

DougSeal said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

That worked well last time

Last time we had a remainer pm who thought she could win a GE by promising the death tax. It was almost as if she wanted to blow her 24point lead on purpose it was that bad

May got 42% it is unlikely a hard Brexiteer will top that

kjohnw said:

DougSeal said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

That worked well last time

Last time we had a remainer pm who thought she could win a GE by promising the death tax. It was almost as if she wanted to blow her 24point lead on purpose it was that bad

Theresa May, a remainer? Pull the other one. The Tories haven’t won a workable majority since 1987 and, on current polling, they would be mad to try now.

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.

Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:

"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."

So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.

Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.

The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliament elections that is required for extension, the results of the indicative votes will be just something the EU Council will consider for the future negotiations in that extension.

Therefore even if Parliament has not made a majority decision as to what to do next in the indicative votes provided it has voted to participate in the EU Parliament elections a further extension will be granted by the EU and we remain in the EU beyond April 12th, effectively indefinitely

Does it require the/a Prime Minister to go to Europe and ask for long extension and to join the EU election?

Because that ain’t going to happen. Is it?

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2

On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.

14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...

Evening all, had a nice day out on the North Yorkshire coast

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Casino

Fwiw, there were a lot of dogs there. Dogs Against Brexit seems to be a significant pressure group.

Were they Barking?

matt said:

I CBA to read the comments here. Could someone advise if something original and/or unexpected was written.

Leave 48%
Remain 52%

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

FF43 said:

It looks like a lot of people to me.

Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.

https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/

Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.

In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'

Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.

The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?

The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.

I didn't hear any heckling of Tom Watson, and he was recieved well. Certainly some speakers got a more positive reception than others, but there wasn't any heckling even when Heseltine started praising Mrs Thatcher for her work on the Single Market. It was a very respectful crowd.

And very well behaved - I only saw about 6 police all day and there seemed to be no stewarding by the organisers. It was considerably bigger than the last march - we waited 2 hours in Hyde Park before starting and apparently some people did not move off until another 1 1/2 hours after that.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Casino

Fwiw, there were a lot of dogs there. Dogs Against Brexit seems to be a significant pressure group.

Were they Barking?

Demented, especially the Border Collies, who don't like what they've been hearing abour border controls.

JoeJamesBroughton said:

Good to get out this fine morning in Isleworth, Hounslow with a great Conservative team, and take the temperature. We have got to get Brexit sorted and make the party tough on law and order again.

Easier said than done.

kjohnw said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2

On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.

TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised

We must agree to disagree on that. IMO remainers flocked to Labour on the basis that, naively, they thought that was the best way to stop it, or soften it. The true position of Corbyn on the issue was not properly appreciated at that point. That’s certainly what happened in my home town of Canterbury, which is hardly Corbyn territory and threw out a Hard Brexiteer after, well, forever. The Conservatives have had a majority for two years in the past quarter of a century. Those two years were hardly glorious. I’m not sure people are rushing to give them another chance.

dots said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not wanthe EU indefinitely not No Deal.

Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:

"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."

So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.

Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.

The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliamenely

Does it require the/a Prime Minister to go to Europe and ask for long extension and to join the EU election?

Because that ain’t going to happen. Is it?

We now have a PM in name only who has basically given up power and handed it over to Parliament rather than have to deal with the damage of No Deal, May promised Brexit would happen on Friday, once Parliament voted against No Deal and for extension of Article 50 May meekly complied and cancelled Brexit Day. May will keep can kicking for as long as possible, in her guts she is not really a Brexiteer, after all she backed Remain, she will say she is to keep her in No 10 though for as long as possible which is all she really cares about, can kicking suits May fine.


If Parliament still fails to get a majority for something in the indicative votes May will offer Parliament a No Deal or lengthy extension and contest the EU Parliament vote, the Commons will vote for the latter and May will again meekly comply and kick the can further down the road

DougSeal said:

kjohnw said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2

On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.

TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised

We must agree to disagree on that. IMO remainers flocked to Labour on the basis that, naively, they thought that was the best way to stop it, or soften it. The true position of Corbyn on the issue was not properly appreciated at that point. That’s certainly what happened in my home town of Canterbury, which is hardly Corbyn territory and threw out a Hard Brexiteer after, well, forever. The Conservatives have had a majority for two years in the past quarter of a century. Those two years were hardly glorious. I’m not sure people are rushing to give them another chance.

Your naively seems somewhat misplaced. Depriving the Tories of their majority seems to have worked wonders for undermining Brexit. Although to be fair the ERG would probably have had the same effect even if the Tories had a small majority.

Just think at some point in the future - who knows how long - some Government's going to figuratively wipe its hands and go "ok, Brexit's sorted" (whatever "sorted" means in that sense, either leave or remain).

At that point it's probably going to turn and look at the pile of mess behind it and go "shit, forgot about literally everything else other than Brexit for the last X years".

HYUFD said:

dots said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not wanthe EU indefinitely not No Deal.

Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:

"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."

So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.

Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.

The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliamenely

Does it require the/a Prime Minister to go to Europe and ask for long extension and to join the EU election?

Because that ain’t going to happen. Is it?

We now have a PM in name only who has basically given up power and handed it over to Parliament rather than have to deal with the damage of No Deal, May promised Brexit would happen on Friday, once Parliament voted against No Deal and for extension of Article 50 May meekly complied and cancelled Brexit Day. May will keep can kicking for as long as possible, in her guts she is not really a Brexiteer, after all she backed Remain, she will say she is to keep her in No 10 though for as long as possible which is all she really cares about, can kicking suits May fine.


If Parliament still fails to get a majority for something in the indicative votes May will offer Parliament a No Deal or lengthy extension and contest the EU Parliament vote, the Commons will vote for the latter and May will again meekly comply and kick the can further down the road

May is going to be gone soon. The sensible Tories will try to install a moderate caretaker - Lidlington was yesterday's favourite although the rumour mill today is bigging up Gove. Whoever it is will apply for the longer extension May knows we need but didn't have the political capital to ask for.

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

No sign of any march to remain in Redcar or Whitby !

2000 + in Recar and 4200+ have signed the Revoke petition from there respectively though.

How many in Redcar marched for Farage?

Is that meant to be impressive? Even if there's no fake signatures or evidence of "vote early, vote often" (and security on this is very lax) then 2000 signatures in Redcar is far fewer than the 2,849 votes the Lib Dems got in 2017 . . . which was 6.7% of the electorate.

Theuniondivvie said:

Casino_Royale said:

Omnium said:

I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.

Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!

Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.

A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.

Makes the real British turnout even lower.

Real British.

.

that's you, that is

From @katyballs: Argument going around party tonight in favour of David Lidington taking charge/becoming caretaker PM, he could:
1. Agree A50 extension
2. Oversee indicative votes
3. Oversee leadership contest in a neutral manner

Is it possible for the tories to get a new pm in place and have a GE before April 11?

Dadge said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1109553007220457472?s=19

That's the kind of tweet people should get banned for.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DougSeal said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2

On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.

14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...

The Conservatives have held a majority for only two years in the last 24.

Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in 2010.

That’s because he’s unelectable

IanB2 said:

4,665,799

17.4 million

Andrew said:

NickPalmer said:

David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).

Wouldn't we need single market alignment for NI still?

Oh well, that'd piss off the DUP, what a shame.

Quite so.

IanB2 said:

kjohnw said:

IanB2 said:

4,665,799

17.4 million

(less deaths and desertions)

What happened to the other 12million who voted remain . You do talk bollocks

solarflare said:

Just think at some point in the future - who knows how long - some Government's going to figuratively wipe its hands and go "ok, Brexit's sorted" (whatever "sorted" means in that sense, either leave or remain).

At that point it's probably going to turn and look at the pile of mess behind it and go "shit, forgot about literally everything else other than Brexit for the last X years".

Which is the argument for just going no deal, managing the short term consequences and then sort the problems the country has. As opposed to being 90% focused on negotiating with the EU for the next 2 to 4 years.

DougSeal said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

DougSeal said:

HYUFD said:

kjohnw said:

MikeSmithson said:

From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers

So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers

On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2

On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.

14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...

The Conservatives have held a majority for only two years in the last 24.

The 2005 result was pretty flukey. A 36/33 lead should never result in a 56 majority.

The voters do not trust Labour in power, or the Conservatives with a majority.

https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/1109466249732476928?s=20

RobD said:

FF43 said:

It looks like a lot of people to me.

Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering once.

https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-the-stop-brexit-petition-reliable

I don't think those links support that assertion, although I believe it to be true. In the HMG blog they even say they don't bother checking accounts from the big providers (e.g., google).

There's definitely overstatement. People can register twice with two personal emails or a work b and a personal email and some will. But it looks like the government have got decent monitoring and controls in place to prevent large scale cheating. I don't know for sure, obviously, but I have reasonable confidence that the overstatement is under10%, say, which is good enough for this purpose,. This means 4 million genuine voters have signed the petition, which is huge.

Edit the point about Google emails is that they are tied to Google accounts that have been though their own validation processes. This makes them undesirable as bot addresses. If most petition emails are from accounts like these it gives confidence that they are genuine.

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

CR re your post to me this morning:

a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?

b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?

c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.

d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.

b) Try reading the posts before responding

c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?

I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.

LOL

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564411101020163

Who's got money on Hunt?
Who's got money on Lidington?

_Anazina_ said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

CR re your post to me this morning:

a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?

b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?

c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.

d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.

e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.

I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.

I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.

I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.

As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.

b) Try reading the posts before responding

c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?

I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.

Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.

I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.

LOL

Apparently Yorkshire alone sent at least 19 full coaches down. So I think CR was building his estimate on some false assumptions.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564229542166528

Oh, smashing. That will keep us busy.

Jesus Christ... Tim Shipman's twitter feed.

This is ON.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564411101020163?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564707537604608?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564827704442880?s=20

How can they install anyone as interim leader? The Tory leadership rules are clear and they do not allow for any such arrangement. If May resigns as leader a new leadership election is triggered.

anothernick said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564411101020163?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564707537604608?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564827704442880?s=20

How can they install anyone as interim leader? The Tory leadership rules are clear and they do not allow for any such arrangement. If May resigns as leader a new leadership election is triggered.

He means interim PM

It looks like Lidington or Gove to me, with Hunt and Javid (somewhat reluctantly) considering backing one or the other.

I reckon Lidington might be better for a cross-party solution to getting a deal through.

I'm laying off Javid in particular now.

kjohnw said:

DougSeal said:

kjohnw said:

IanB2 said:

4,665,799

17.4 million

Three years ago

We haven’t left yet , and everyone I speak to just wants the vote honoured and done . It’s called democracy and parliament has tried to thwart it and block the clear instruction given by the people’s vote, You might be happy to sell your country’s sovereignty out the window to a bunch of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels but most of us like to hold those we lend power to , to be accountable to us

You keep repeating this tosh, I'll keep replying that:
1. Parliament has not tried to thwart the referendum result. It's spent the last 2+ years trying to work out how to enact that result. There was a vote a few days ago regarding a 2nd referendum and it was heavily defeated.
2. Britain remains a sovereign nation. One safeguard of this is that our government selects our EU commissioner, rather than his being elected. The fact that he is unelected does not equate to a lack of democracy.

Theresa May could head off the coup by backing a second referendum.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564411101020163?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564707537604608?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564827704442880?s=20

I hope they know what they're doing.

There's always a first time.

Casino_Royale said:

Check your betting positions guys..

Lidington and Gove in play. If she does go, then laying JC as PM will pay out in just a few days.

What if Gove was one of us
Just a slob like one of us
Blu,blu,blu,blu,blu,blu
blu,bla,bla,bli,bli,bli

It would be nice if Lidington and Gove have gone off too early. I don't have any confidence in either of them. If Boris can similarly rule himself out soon, I'd be delighted.

Casino_Royale said:

Jesus Christ... Tim Shipman's twitter feed.

This is ON.

With your contacts do you know who is Shippers cabinet source?