David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).
Wouldn't we need single market alignment for NI still?
W.r.t. Numbers. No idea, I wasn't there. However, some Leavers seem surprised and even offended by it. This points to something. They've had 40+ years of being the plucky outsiders railing against Government policy. But, for the last nearly 3 years they have been the Establishment. They are the official policy of the government (and indeed the opposition). And they have royally and spectacularly ballsed it up. So, People are energised against it. No surprise in any other field of policy, so no surprise here. Except to some Leavers. When was the last huge march in support of government policy? No way does this issue die down, if and when we leave. The campaign to rejoin will start the next day.
David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).
Wouldn't we need single market alignment for NI still?
Oh well, that'd piss off the DUP, what a shame.
All it would do is make the temporary Customs Union for the UK permanent while keeping the Customs Union and Single Market alignment backstop for NI as is, it could get a majority in the Commons, certainly compared to any alternative
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
That worked well last time
Last time we had a remainer pm who thought she could win a GE by promising the death tax. It was almost as if she wanted to blow her 24point lead on purpose it was that bad
What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?
Just because the scare stories used three years ago turned out to be bollox / lies doesn't mean there wouldn't be significant effects from No Deal.
How significant they would be we don't know and their size and duration would depend greatly on how quickly the government was able to agree multiple mini-deals sector by sector.
Personally I don't see the potential damage as a price worth paying for choosing No Deal over a Deal.
Spot on. Unnecessary damage and a more difficult relationship with the EU going forward. The deal is significantly better than no deal. But the extremists on both sides hate it and think that they can do better either by remaining or by leaving with no deal. I just don’t see how May gets a majority for it in those circumstances in which event we will have one extreme or the other.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
We all know how accurate the polls have been .#anyone but Theresa May and Jeremy corbyn
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
That worked well last time
Last time we had a remainer pm who thought she could win a GE by promising the death tax. It was almost as if she wanted to blow her 24point lead on purpose it was that bad
May got 42% it is unlikely a hard Brexiteer will top that
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
Agreed, another election would likely ensure a Corbyn minority government and BINO or EUref2. The Tories might just about win a majority in England on a hard Brexit platform, they are unlikely to do so across the UK
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
That worked well last time
Last time we had a remainer pm who thought she could win a GE by promising the death tax. It was almost as if she wanted to blow her 24point lead on purpose it was that bad
Theresa May, a remainer? Pull the other one. The Tories haven’t won a workable majority since 1987 and, on current polling, they would be mad to try now.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
And especially as I don't see how the three factions of Tories could agree a platform for such an election. Labour would probably give its best shot at yet another fantasy unicorn Brexit deal, accompanied by promise of a second vote to keep its Remain wing happy. But what manifesto could ever unite Tory remainers, soft leavers, and ERG?
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:
"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."
So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.
Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliament elections that is required for extension, the results of the indicative votes will be just something the EU Council will consider for the future negotiations in that extension.
Therefore even if Parliament has not made a majority decision as to what to do next in the indicative votes provided it has voted to participate in the EU Parliament elections a further extension will be granted by the EU and we remain in the EU beyond April 12th, effectively indefinitely
Does it require the/a Prime Minister to go to Europe and ask for long extension and to join the EU election?
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised
Good to get out this fine morning in Isleworth, Hounslow with a great Conservative team, and take the temperature. We have got to get Brexit sorted and make the party tough on law and order again. Another young life lost in a stabbing in Isleworth today. Knife criminals have to know they'll get a severe sentence aswell.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
And especially as I don't see how the three factions of Tories could agree a platform for such an election. Labour would probably give its best shot at yet another fantasy unicorn Brexit deal, accompanied by promise of a second vote to keep its Remain wing happy. But what manifesto could ever unite Tory remainers, soft leavers, and ERG?
Agreed. Predicting from the polls is tricky at the best of times but in the current political scenario? Impossible.
Never mind. The Grand National is due up shortly. That will be a lot easier to fathom.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?
The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
I didn't hear any heckling of Tom Watson, and he was recieved well. Certainly some speakers got a more positive reception than others, but there wasn't any heckling even when Heseltine started praising Mrs Thatcher for her work on the Single Market. It was a very respectful crowd.
And very well behaved - I only saw about 6 police all day and there seemed to be no stewarding by the organisers. It was considerably bigger than the last march - we waited 2 hours in Hyde Park before starting and apparently some people did not move off until another 1 1/2 hours after that.
Good to get out this fine morning in Isleworth, Hounslow with a great Conservative team, and take the temperature. We have got to get Brexit sorted and make the party tough on law and order again. Another young life lost in a stabbing in Isleworth today. Knife criminals have to know they'll get a severe sentence aswell.
Are you lost? Surely this was intended for twitter.
Good to get out this fine morning in Isleworth, Hounslow with a great Conservative team, and take the temperature. We have got to get Brexit sorted and make the party tough on law and order again.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised
The vast majority of Leavers voted Tory in 2017 anyway, some have since moved over to UKIP since Chequers and the Deal but winning them back only returns the Tories to 2017 levels. I fail to see how a hard Brexit platform wins a Tory Landslide? Even if it won over a few more Labour Leave voters it also risks losing Tory Remainers to the LDs and TIG
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised
We must agree to disagree on that. IMO remainers flocked to Labour on the basis that, naively, they thought that was the best way to stop it, or soften it. The true position of Corbyn on the issue was not properly appreciated at that point. That’s certainly what happened in my home town of Canterbury, which is hardly Corbyn territory and threw out a Hard Brexiteer after, well, forever. The Conservatives have had a majority for two years in the past quarter of a century. Those two years were hardly glorious. I’m not sure people are rushing to give them another chance.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not wanthe EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:
"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."
So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.
Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliamenely
Does it require the/a Prime Minister to go to Europe and ask for long extension and to join the EU election?
Because that ain’t going to happen. Is it?
We now have a PM in name only who has basically given up power and handed it over to Parliament rather than have to deal with the damage of No Deal, May promised Brexit would happen on Friday, once Parliament voted against No Deal and for extension of Article 50 May meekly complied and cancelled Brexit Day. May will keep can kicking for as long as possible, in her guts she is not really a Brexiteer, after all she backed Remain, she will say she is to keep her in No 10 though for as long as possible which is all she really cares about, can kicking suits May fine.
If Parliament still fails to get a majority for something in the indicative votes May will offer Parliament a No Deal or lengthy extension and contest the EU Parliament vote, the Commons will vote for the latter and May will again meekly comply and kick the can further down the road
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...
The Conservatives have held a majority for only two years in the last 24.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised
We must agree to disagree on that. IMO remainers flocked to Labour on the basis that, naively, they thought that was the best way to stop it, or soften it. The true position of Corbyn on the issue was not properly appreciated at that point. That’s certainly what happened in my home town of Canterbury, which is hardly Corbyn territory and threw out a Hard Brexiteer after, well, forever. The Conservatives have had a majority for two years in the past quarter of a century. Those two years were hardly glorious. I’m not sure people are rushing to give them another chance.
Your naively seems somewhat misplaced. Depriving the Tories of their majority seems to have worked wonders for undermining Brexit. Although to be fair the ERG would probably have had the same effect even if the Tories had a small majority.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
TM could have won a huge majority in 2017 if she had stuck to the simple message of delivering brexit, but she had to screw it up with the death tax it was the worst GE campaign in my lifetime. So a decent leader will win a majority IMO . Corbyn is despised
We must agree to disagree on that. IMO remainers flocked to Labour on the basis that, naively, they thought that was the best way to stop it, or soften it. The true position of Corbyn on the issue was not properly appreciated at that point. That’s certainly what happened in my home town of Canterbury, which is hardly Corbyn territory and threw out a Hard Brexiteer after, well, forever. The Conservatives have had a majority for two years in the past quarter of a century. Those two years were hardly glorious. I’m not sure people are rushing to give them another chance.
Just think at some point in the future - who knows how long - some Government's going to figuratively wipe its hands and go "ok, Brexit's sorted" (whatever "sorted" means in that sense, either leave or remain).
At that point it's probably going to turn and look at the pile of mess behind it and go "shit, forgot about literally everything else other than Brexit for the last X years".
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
How did that go last time? LOL!
Last time we had a PM who'd actually campaigned to leave the EU? I don't know, do you?
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not wanthe EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:
"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."
So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.
Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliamenely
Does it require the/a Prime Minister to go to Europe and ask for long extension and to join the EU election?
Because that ain’t going to happen. Is it?
We now have a PM in name only who has basically given up power and handed it over to Parliament rather than have to deal with the damage of No Deal, May promised Brexit would happen on Friday, once Parliament voted against No Deal and for extension of Article 50 May meekly complied and cancelled Brexit Day. May will keep can kicking for as long as possible, in her guts she is not really a Brexiteer, after all she backed Remain, she will say she is to keep her in No 10 though for as long as possible which is all she really cares about, can kicking suits May fine.
If Parliament still fails to get a majority for something in the indicative votes May will offer Parliament a No Deal or lengthy extension and contest the EU Parliament vote, the Commons will vote for the latter and May will again meekly comply and kick the can further down the road
May is going to be gone soon. The sensible Tories will try to install a moderate caretaker - Lidlington was yesterday's favourite although the rumour mill today is bigging up Gove. Whoever it is will apply for the longer extension May knows we need but didn't have the political capital to ask for.
No sign of any march to remain in Redcar or Whitby !
2000 + in Recar and 4200+ have signed the Revoke petition from there respectively though.
How many in Redcar marched for Farage?
Is that meant to be impressive? Even if there's no fake signatures or evidence of "vote early, vote often" (and security on this is very lax) then 2000 signatures in Redcar is far fewer than the 2,849 votes the Lib Dems got in 2017 . . . which was 6.7% of the electorate.
Ross Kempsell @rosskempsell 10m Tory MPs WhatsApp groups alive with speculation today that May could set out timetable to go / threaten general election in the Sundays
I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.
Ross Kempsell @rosskempsell 10m Tory MPs WhatsApp groups alive with speculation today that May could set out timetable to go / threaten general election in the Sundays
Newton Dunn is pointing out that the cabinet have all disappeared - not one of them defended our PriMino in the media today.
From @katyballs: Argument going around party tonight in favour of David Lidington taking charge/becoming caretaker PM, he could: 1. Agree A50 extension 2. Oversee indicative votes 3. Oversee leadership contest in a neutral manner
Regardless of their ability or worth to do the job I can believe Lidington as a temporary, caretaker PM. I can't believe Gove as a *temporary, caretaker* PM.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...
The Conservatives have held a majority for only two years in the last 24.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in 2010.
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...
The Conservatives have held a majority for only two years in the last 24.
Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Gordon did in 2010.
David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).
Wouldn't we need single market alignment for NI still?
Ross Kempsell @rosskempsell 10m Tory MPs WhatsApp groups alive with speculation today that May could set out timetable to go / threaten general election in the Sundays
Newton Dunn is pointing out that the cabinet have all disappeared - not one of them defended our PriMino in the media today.
I expect the Gover's at home having a deep conversation about what's expected of the spouse of a future pm.
Just think at some point in the future - who knows how long - some Government's going to figuratively wipe its hands and go "ok, Brexit's sorted" (whatever "sorted" means in that sense, either leave or remain).
At that point it's probably going to turn and look at the pile of mess behind it and go "shit, forgot about literally everything else other than Brexit for the last X years".
Which is the argument for just going no deal, managing the short term consequences and then sort the problems the country has. As opposed to being 90% focused on negotiating with the EU for the next 2 to 4 years.
We haven’t left yet , and everyone I speak to just wants the vote honoured and done . It’s called democracy and parliament has tried to thwart it and block the clear instruction given by the people’s vote, You might be happy to sell your country’s sovereignty out the window to a bunch of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels but most of us like to hold those we lend power to , to be accountable to us
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
So what , the silent majority just vote peacefully in the ballot box and don’t shout or march because they lost. What we need right now is TM to resign, a new PM who actually campaigned to leave the EU and a fresh General Election , to get a decent majority to get brexit through and purge parliament of the Tiggers and the sour grapes remainers
On current polling it would most likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and CU and SM BINO or EUref2
On current polling you’d be a madman to try to predict the outcome. The Conservative Party must by now realise that they have not won a decent majority for 32 years and, on current polling, they’d be mad to trigger another one. Especially given last time.
14 years since Labour won in excess of 300 MPs...
The Conservatives have held a majority for only two years in the last 24.
The 2005 result was pretty flukey. A 36/33 lead should never result in a 56 majority.
The voters do not trust Labour in power, or the Conservatives with a majority.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering once.
I don't think those links support that assertion, although I believe it to be true. In the HMG blog they even say they don't bother checking accounts from the big providers (e.g., google).
There's definitely overstatement. People can register twice with two personal emails or a work b and a personal email and some will. But it looks like the government have got decent monitoring and controls in place to prevent large scale cheating. I don't know for sure, obviously, but I have reasonable confidence that the overstatement is under10%, say, which is good enough for this purpose,. This means 4 million genuine voters have signed the petition, which is huge.
Edit the point about Google emails is that they are tied to Google accounts that have been though their own validation processes. This makes them undesirable as bot addresses. If most petition emails are from accounts like these it gives confidence that they are genuine.
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?
b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?
c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?
b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?
c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
LOL
Apparently Yorkshire alone sent at least 19 full coaches down. So I think CR was building his estimate on some false assumptions.
Interim leader kinda makes sense - none of the real candidates want the mess to stick to them, and the caretaker can try appear somewhat apolitical wrt Brexity stuff.
ps didn't someone here have Lidders at ~ ten billion to one?
How can they install anyone as interim leader? The Tory leadership rules are clear and they do not allow for any such arrangement. If May resigns as leader a new leadership election is triggered.
How can they install anyone as interim leader? The Tory leadership rules are clear and they do not allow for any such arrangement. If May resigns as leader a new leadership election is triggered.
We haven’t left yet , and everyone I speak to just wants the vote honoured and done . It’s called democracy and parliament has tried to thwart it and block the clear instruction given by the people’s vote, You might be happy to sell your country’s sovereignty out the window to a bunch of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels but most of us like to hold those we lend power to , to be accountable to us
You keep repeating this tosh, I'll keep replying that: 1. Parliament has not tried to thwart the referendum result. It's spent the last 2+ years trying to work out how to enact that result. There was a vote a few days ago regarding a 2nd referendum and it was heavily defeated. 2. Britain remains a sovereign nation. One safeguard of this is that our government selects our EU commissioner, rather than his being elected. The fact that he is unelected does not equate to a lack of democracy.
It won't work, given she won the confidence vote late last year May cannot be challenged again until December. If she goes before then it will be entirely down to her and as we know she is as stubborn as a mule
She can't be deposed as leader but she can be deposed as PM.
I think Gove or Lidington have what it takes. The latter is more likely to be acceptable to a broader cross-party spectrum, and stabilise the Conservative image.
Gove isn't trusted as much and has too much baggage, but no doubt will have creative solutions.
It would be nice if Lidington and Gove have gone off too early. I don't have any confidence in either of them. If Boris can similarly rule himself out soon, I'd be delighted.
Interim leader kinda makes sense - none of the real candidates want the mess to stick to them, and the caretaker can try appear somewhat apolitical wrt Brexity stuff.
ps didn't someone here have Lidders at ~ ten billion to one?
His price has collapsed to less than 8/1 as next PM in the last few minutes.
Comments
Oh well, that'd piss off the DUP, what a shame.
But, for the last nearly 3 years they have been the Establishment. They are the official policy of the government (and indeed the opposition). And they have royally and spectacularly ballsed it up. So, People are energised against it. No surprise in any other field of policy, so no surprise here. Except to some Leavers.
When was the last huge march in support of government policy?
No way does this issue die down, if and when we leave.
The campaign to rejoin will start the next day.
Fwiw, there were a lot of dogs there. Dogs Against Brexit seems to be a significant pressure group.
Theresa May, a remainer? Pull the other one. The Tories haven’t won a workable majority since 1987 and, on current polling, they would be mad to try now.
Because that ain’t going to happen. Is it?
Never mind. The Grand National is due up shortly. That will be a lot easier to fathom.
Remain 52%
How many in Redcar marched for Farage?
If Parliament still fails to get a majority for something in the indicative votes May will offer Parliament a No Deal or lengthy extension and contest the EU Parliament vote, the Commons will vote for the latter and May will again meekly comply and kick the can further down the road
https://youtu.be/dQY2CHx4d3U
At that point it's probably going to turn and look at the pile of mess behind it and go "shit, forgot about literally everything else other than Brexit for the last X years".
Ross Kempsell @rosskempsell
10m
Tory MPs WhatsApp groups alive with speculation today that May could set out timetable to go / threaten general election in the Sundays
1. Agree A50 extension
2. Oversee indicative votes
3. Oversee leadership contest in a neutral manner
The voters do not trust Labour in power, or the Conservatives with a majority.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564411101020163
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564707537604608
Edit the point about Google emails is that they are tied to Google accounts that have been though their own validation processes. This makes them undesirable as bot addresses. If most petition emails are from accounts like these it gives confidence that they are genuine.
Javid won't support Gove or Hunt. Hunt won't support Lidlington.
Apparently.
Who's got money on Hunt?
Who's got money on Lidington?
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564707537604608?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1109564827704442880?s=20
Lidington and Gove in play. If she does go, then laying JC as PM will pay out in just a few days.
So whose ears are closest to the ground?
This is ON.
ps didn't someone here have Lidders at ~ ten billion to one?
I reckon Lidington might be better for a cross-party solution to getting a deal through.
I'm laying off Javid in particular now.
1. Parliament has not tried to thwart the referendum result. It's spent the last 2+ years trying to work out how to enact that result. There was a vote a few days ago regarding a 2nd referendum and it was heavily defeated.
2. Britain remains a sovereign nation. One safeguard of this is that our government selects our EU commissioner, rather than his being elected. The fact that he is unelected does not equate to a lack of democracy.
I think Gove or Lidington have what it takes. The latter is more likely to be acceptable to a broader cross-party spectrum, and stabilise the Conservative image.
Gove isn't trusted as much and has too much baggage, but no doubt will have creative solutions.
Just a slob like one of us
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