politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time
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a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?
b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?
c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?0 -
How many billionaires do you know? The AB class which was strongest for Remain includes all high income earners like ceos and stockbrokers and corporate lawyers not just graduates, ordinary people on modest incomes, even those who were graduates are more likely to be in the C1 class or even C2s than ABs.OnlyLivingBoy said:
The billionaires were on both sides although the ones I've met have tended to the Leave side. The point I was making is that it's absurd to rail against the 'Liberal elite' because the Liberal left have had no political power for almost a decade and the kind of well-educated people that you seem to be targeting for your scorn are mostly just ordinary people on modest incomes who happened to do well enough at school and went to university.HYUFD said:
Plenty of billionaires voted Remain, including Sir Richard Branson who is again calling for EUref2 or revocation of Article 50OnlyLivingBoy said:
The real power in this country is exercised by billionaires meeting Tory politicians for lunch in Mayfair not by a secret cabal of Polly Toynbee, Professor Brian Cox and Richard Curtis plotting Liberal world domination over a butternut squash lasagna in a North London basement kitchen. There is some crazy cultural inferiority complex stuff going on here.HYUFD said:
The strongest group which voted Remain was upper middle class ABs, so no surprise there.glw said:
It's not about persuading Leavers — Remainers haven't even tried that as yet — it's about demonstrating their "superiority". You only have to look at Scott_P's posts to see how cloth-eared Remainers are.CarlottaVance said:
This is Hilary's "basket of deplorables" times about a million or so.
According to Mori ABs voted 59% Remain 41% Leave compared to the country as a whole which voted 52% Leave and 48% Remain (C2s voted 62% Leave and 38% Remain and DEs 64% Leave and 36% Remain).
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum
The quickest way to be ostracised from the Islington and Cotswolds dinner party set is to say you were a Leaver
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/richard-branson-uk-dangerously-close-to-full-scale-brexit-disaster-1-4894352
There were also plenty in the 'Liberal elite' in the 2010 to 2015 Coalition government, some of them are still even in May's Cabinet, Rudd, Gauke etc0 -
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?
b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?
c) Again with your usual foresight you anticipate I will again exaggerate the numbers. Well as I have (to the best of my knowledge and if I have I will have been wrong) never attempted to calculate the numbers, because unlike you I actually do not have the foggiest idea what they are, I will not be doing so and so you will be wrong.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.0 -
People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .JosephG said:
According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).AndyJS said:
Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?WhisperingOracle said:The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.
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I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.0
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It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.nico67 said:
People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .JosephG said:
According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).AndyJS said:
Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?WhisperingOracle said:The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.
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I doubt it's easy to make an assessment from within the crowd, how far do you have to look to see a million people?SMukesh said:I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.
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You should ask Alastair Campbell for a job.SMukesh said:I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.
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No I actually understand the reality of the situation and care about democracy. You certainly do not in either case. You only play lip service to it when you are winning. It is those like you who hate democracy who will bring this country down.Ishmael_Z said:
You are just making up rules out of whole cloth to suit your case, and hedging them about with pompous flimflam on the lines of "Let's make it absolutely clear then" to make it look as if they are self-evident. We have no express rules for direct democracy (we should have had, before we started) and we therefore have to look to what is reasonable. It seems to me a reasonable rule that the proponents of a plan should be given a reasonable time to demonstrate that it is capable of execution. Leave have now had that. Your claim that the plan must actually be executed at no matter what cost, in a charge of the light brigade kinda way, is just risible.Richard_Tyndall said:
Let's make it absolutely clear then. If you do not implement what the people voted for in a single issue vote then it is not democracy. It is just a smokescreen for a technocracy. And if you start down that road why should any of us abide by any 'democratic' decision in the future. Pretty soon you have slid into 'might is right'.Ishmael_Z said:
"And a democracy normally implements a decision of a democratic election first." Can you produce any authority or rationale for that, or are you just saying it? Of course it is boringly true in this country in that 99% of democratic decisions in this country involve appointing people to things, which is easy and unproblematic and practically self-fulfilling. But why do you say it is what a democracy "normally" does in other cases?brendan16 said:
And a democracy normally implements a decision of a democratic election first. If the people then vote for something else after the first vote has been implemented then it can of course change its mind.kle4 said:
It's a good point to hammer home, but of course just because a democracy can change its mind doesn't mean it has or should do so.Scott_P said:
Keep voting until you deliver the result I want isn't quite the same thing!
You had your chance, Gorman.
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Whatever this woman may have posted three months ago as a private individual, both the revocation campaigns and people's vote campaigns, collectively , have been good-natured. The Leave campaign will always struggle to convert anger and resentment of the EU into something as civically responsible, and so far it has categorically failed to do that.nico67 said:
People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .JosephG said:
According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).AndyJS said:
Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?WhisperingOracle said:The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.
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Another stupid analogy from you Ian.IanB2 said:
Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.
Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.0 -
What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?0
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According to French TV News over 1,000,000. Not bad. At least they're covering it. For the most part the French have more interesting things to talk about than their ridiculous neigbours across the waterCasino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.Foxy said:
There were a lot of children, so yes. A few EU citizens, but not many. Mostly a rich tapestry of British citizens.Casino_Royale said:
That’s a fair point but my point is that a good number on the march wouldn’t be eligible to vote.brendan16 said:
"Yes, real British = British citizens registered here to vote and eligible to vote in a second referendum, as per the original vote, as opposed to EU citizens joining the march out of strong sympathy, who aren’t.
Don’t try and insinuate something that isn’t there."
Some EU citizens can vote though in referendums and national elections - if they are Cypriot, Maltese or Irish. As applies to Commonwealth citizens plus the Irish generally.
Of course very few Commonwealth nations return the favour if we move there - although Brits in Ireland can vote in Dail elections.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.0 -
I am not claiming it as fact, it was just an observation. If you look at the BBC news website now, you can see the aerial shots to give an idea of the number of people at the march.RobD said:
I doubt it's easy to make an assessment from within the crowd, how far do you have to look to see a million people?SMukesh said:I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.
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The French are simply parroting what the BBC have quoted from PV.Roger said:
According to French TV News over 1,000,000. Not bad. At least they're covering it. For the most part the French have more interesting things to talk about than their ridiculous neigbours across the waterCasino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.Foxy said:
There were a lot of children, so yes. A few EU citizens, but not many. Mostly a rich tapestry of British citizens.Casino_Royale said:
That’s a fair point but my point is that a good number on the march wouldn’t be eligible to vote.brendan16 said:
"Yes, real British = British citizens registered here to vote and eligible to vote in a second referendum, as per the original vote, as opposed to EU citizens joining the march out of strong sympathy, who aren’t.
Don’t try and insinuate something that isn’t there."
Some EU citizens can vote though in referendums and national elections - if they are Cypriot, Maltese or Irish. As applies to Commonwealth citizens plus the Irish generally.
Of course very few Commonwealth nations return the favour if we move there - although Brits in Ireland can vote in Dail elections.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
There is no extra analysis or evidence there.0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:
Another stupid analogy from you Ian.IanB2 said:
Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.
Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.
Maybe he fancies you?-1 -
When the same people who said No Deal was Project Fear went seamlessly to saying No Deal is nothing to be feared.saddo said:What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?
They have credibility issues.0 -
I have no idea how to interpret those pictures. There are definitely a lot of people, but I wouldn't claim to be able to tell how many.SMukesh said:
I am not claiming it as fact, it was just an observation. If you look at the BBC news website now, you can see the aerial shots to give an idea of the number of people at the march.RobD said:
I doubt it's easy to make an assessment from within the crowd, how far do you have to look to see a million people?SMukesh said:I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.
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Yes, I agree these analogies are stupid, really.Richard_Tyndall said:
Another stupid analogy from you Ian.IanB2 said:
Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.
Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.
Nevertheless if people clearly have changed their minds, it would makes no sense to go through with the original decision regardless, particularly since it wasn't accompanied by any actual plan.0 -
Everyone was at NOTTINGHAM with Nigel, silly.SMukesh said:I thought the million count seemed an understatement looking at the crowds that were there. My friend who had been there for the Iraq war March said this seemed much bigger. Some really funny placards to read and a nice sunny day to walk.
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I won’t be losing any sleep . As for damaged goods that looks like Brexit at the moment. Leavers were promised two weeks in New York in a five star hotel and ended up finding the reality is a wet weekend in Skegness .tlg86 said:
It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.nico67 said:
People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .JosephG said:
According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).AndyJS said:
Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?WhisperingOracle said:The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.
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Have people clearly changed their minds?IanB2 said:
Yes, I agree these analogies are stupid, really.Richard_Tyndall said:
Another stupid analogy from you Ian.IanB2 said:
Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.
Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.
Nevertheless if people clearly have changed their minds, it would makes no sense to go through with the original decision regardless, particularly since it wasn't accompanied by any actual plan.0 -
Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:HYUFD said:No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."
So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.
Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.0 -
It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?
b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?
c) g.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.0 -
No deal would be fine if we had a decade to prep for it.saddo said:What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?
And yes, project fear v1 was ridiculous. It's done quite a bit of damage, because now a lot of people (and some of the dimmer MPs) think we can just undo 46 years of fairly hefty economic integration overnight, with no consequences.
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Official numbers for various previous marches can be found here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
Police numbers for the big Stop The War march were 750k.0 -
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.0 -
I don't think being there is necessary. If you are caught up in the crowd how on earth can you tell how many people are in it?IanB2 said:
It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.0 -
The truth is you don't know and guessing low is pointless. And making up a low number is even less credible than the news agencies quoting a million (whether they are right or wrong themselves - at least they were there!)IanB2 said:
It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratu
c) g.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.0 -
I don't think being there would have been terribly helpful in this instance. Unless you were Carol Vorderman and surveying the scene from a tall building.0
-
Does it really matter CR?Casino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.
We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.
We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.
They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?
The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.
It just seems a pointless argument.0 -
I have no idea how many it was. But then I never claimed to have. From the newsreel and video I have seen, it looked like a lot of people. My point is simply that claiming justification for a prior prediction based on no evidence whatsoever isn't particularly convincing.tottenhamWC said:
The truth is you don't know and guessing low is pointless. And making up a low number is even less credible than the news agencies quoting a million (whether they are right or wrong themselves - at least they were there!)IanB2 said:
It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratu
c) g.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.0 -
AgreedIanB2 said:
I have no idea how many it was. But then I never claimed to have. From the newsreel and video I have seen, it looked like a lot of people. My point is simply that claiming justification for a prior prediction based on no evidence whatsoever isn't particularly convincing.tottenhamWC said:
The truth is you don't know and guessing low is pointless. And making up a low number is even less credible than the news agencies quoting a million (whether they are right or wrong themselves - at least they were there!)IanB2 said:
It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratu
c) g.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
I and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
0 -
Apologies I was snappy with you which I did not mean to be.IanB2 said:
Yes, I agree these analogies are stupid, really.Richard_Tyndall said:
Another stupid analogy from you Ian.IanB2 said:
Yes. It is hardly as if the referendum was put aside and ignored the day after the vote. We have spent three years with a government committed to delivering it, and look at the shambles that has arisen as a result, with the most ardent supporters continually voting down their own side's Brexit plan. That is respect enough.
Tyndall is someone who would argue that if you've proposed marriage on a drunken night out and then sober up to realise what a dreadful mistake it is going to be, you still have to go through with it before starting divorce proceedings the following day, regardless of whether she walks off with a chunk of your pension.
Nevertheless if people clearly have changed their minds, it would makes no sense to go through with the original decision regardless, particularly since it wasn't accompanied by any actual plan.0 -
+1Richard_Tyndall said:
Does it really matter CR?Casino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.
We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.
We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.
They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?
The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.
It just seems a pointless argument.0 -
I was merely answering the question that had been asked in terms that, yes, as a matter of fact, this was the very same person. The reference to the source of the allegation was a health warning. I am not entirely sure how you somehow inferred that I was smearing the signatories of the petition with the unproven allegations against the orignator, but I am happy to clarify that I was not. Happy now?tlg86 said:
It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.nico67 said:
People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .JosephG said:
According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).AndyJS said:
Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?WhisperingOracle said:The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.
0 -
I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/11095282213793792020 -
It does, because I'm interested in truth and don't like to see propaganda go unchallenged. These numbers will be argued to be representative of the (current) will of the British people. That is not what it represents, and I will continue to say so.Richard_Tyndall said:
Does it really matter CR?Casino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.
We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.
We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.
They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?
The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.
It just seems a pointless argument.
The numbers cited by the GLA and the Police last time were precisely what I was quoting - I have no interest in undercooking them - but by then the lie has travelled twice around the world.0 -
The messages from the EU are mixed here. Definites: agree May's Deal as is for a short extension, or commit to EP elections for a long extension, with the decision to be made by April 12. Or it's No Deal. They were vague about what else would be required if the UK went down the long extension route, but the UK having in that case agreed the EP elections, it seems unlikely that the EU would turn round on the 13th April and say, not good enough, No Deal it is.Black_Rook said:
Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:HYUFD said:No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."
So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.
Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
It's not clear whether the EU would put the shutters down on April 13 if the UK parliament had agreed neither the Deal nor Euro elections. My guess is that it would start the clock running for the exit for a couple of weeks longer, so the UK could pull back from the brink before it's too late. But I don't know.0 -
The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.HYUFD said:
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.0 -
So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.kjh said:
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
I'm done engaging with you on this subject.0 -
That video gives as good a feel for the scale of it as any of us are likely to get.Theuniondivvie said:I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1109528221379379202
0 -
Apologies, I wasn't being particularly serious. Guido is very good at finding this sort of stuff, but in the grand scheme of things it really doesn't matter.JosephG said:
I was merely answering the question that had been asked in terms that, yes, as a matter of fact, this was the very same person. The reference to the source of the allegation was a health warning. I am not entirely sure how you somehow inferred that I was smearing the signatories of the petition with the unproven allegations against the orignator, but I am happy to clarify that I was not. Happy now?tlg86 said:
It's incredibly bad luck for remainers that the person who initiated the petition is damaged goods.nico67 said:
People are signing the petition to revoke Article 50 not to shoot May. This is just desperate from the GF site who have a nerve calling out others given some of their rhetoric .JosephG said:
According to Guido, yes: she wanted to shoot her in the face. She says that she cannot remember any such posts (although, again, according to Guido, two have since been deleted).AndyJS said:
Wasn't she the one who allegedly posted controversial remarks about Mrs May?WhisperingOracle said:The contrast between the civility of today's march and the death threats against Ms Georgiadou, as the petition organiser, couldn't be starker.
0 -
I knew what the political spin line was that they wanted to take. That's allIanB2 said:
It's just remarkable how you knew how it wasn't going to be a million when the sun had barely risen and you know it wasn't a million now the sun has set, yet you weren't even there.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
a) Bearing in mind you were replying to my post where I was congratulating Mike and his team and mourning the loss of SDS, Mark Senior, Plato and others do you not think your post was highly inappropriate and in very poor taste?
b) I have now reached out to you twice to reconcile and you have spurned those attempts each time - you can really hold a grudge can't you?
c) g.
d) For someone who says they do not care, you do post an awful lot about the numbers. Dare I suggest you really, really do care. A lot in fact.
e) It appears you were unable to take what was intended to be friendly advice the other day (but which you interpreted as belittling you, which wasn't what was intended at all) and continue to open yourself up to, at best harmless fun, and at worst, ridicule. I was just trying to be helpful and to have a bit of fun.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
It's not hard. Go back and read my reasoning prior to 10am this morning. It's simple, easy, mnemonic and cuts through easy on news bulletins and creates a transmittable and repeatable story with traction.
On any other political subject other than this you'd see this, but you're too blindsided by your own interest.0 -
Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.kjh said:
There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.Casino_Royale said:
A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.Omnium said:I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
Makes the real British turnout even lower.0 -
You’ve spent all day boiling your piss and boring the rest of us with your vinegar-faced rantings about crowd numbers.Casino_Royale said:
It does, because I'm interested in truth and don't like to see propaganda go unchallenged. These numbers will be argued to be representative of the (current) will of the British people. That is not what it represents, and I will continue to say so.Richard_Tyndall said:
Does it really matter CR?Casino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
We know that this was a very large march with, at the very least, several hundreds of thousands of people attending to try and make their voice heard.
We know that the marchers only represent a fraction of those who voted Remain and who still want to Remain. For every one who attended there will be at least 10 or 15 at home who agree entirely but could not make it for a myriad of personal reasons.
We also know that Governments pay not a blind bit of notice to these things.
They marched and made their legitimate protest and did it peacefully and with good humour. Why try and belittle them for it by arguing about numbers?
The official numbers will emerge eventually from the London Authority and the Police as they did last time. As is the nature of these things they will probably be more than you and the detractors claim and less than the organisers claim.
It just seems a pointless argument.
The numbers cited by the GLA and the Police last time were precisely what I was quoting - I have no interest in undercooking them - but by then the lie has travelled twice around the world.
Haven’t you a hobby?0 -
That looks like a massive turnout .IanB2 said:
That video gives as good a feel for the scale of it as any of us are likely to get.Theuniondivvie said:I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/11095282213793792020 -
I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.Casino_Royale said:
So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.kjh said:
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a) I didn't mix messages. I made no point whatsoever in the post. It was a perfectly completely non controversial slightly self deprecating reasonable sign off by myself. I made no comment on numbers whatsoever. You did though in your response. SoCasino_Royale said:
I care about misrepresenting numbers for political ends. I keep “going on” about it because I don’t like to see them unchallenged. And I am not wrong about them. You will hear more from me on this when I know more.kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
.
I always welcome advice but am not going to shut up about it just because you might want me to do so. I think this is important as it has an important bearing on the debate over the biggest issue currently facing British politics.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
b) Try reading the posts before responding
c) I don't care if you carry on posting about the numbers; I was just trying to be helpful. Just look at the responses you have had in the last few minutes. Are you not self aware enough to realise that people are laughing at you?
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
I'm done engaging with you on this subject.0 -
Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbersviewcode said:
Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.kjh said:
There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.Casino_Royale said:
A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.Omnium said:I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
Makes the real British turnout even lower.0 -
I forget the anti-cuts marches in 2011.Phil said:Official numbers for various previous marches can be found here: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/28/demonstrations-protests-uk-list
Police numbers for the big Stop The War march were 750k.
They were big news at the time.0 -
My estimations are accurate and spot on, and based on official numbers.mwjfrome17 said:
Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbersviewcode said:
Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.kjh said:
There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.Casino_Royale said:
A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.Omnium said:I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
Makes the real British turnout even lower.
I note that precisely no-one has challenged my calculations downthread.
The dog point is a silly one because PV will have been assessing headcount, to which EU non-voters and underage children contribute, but err.. animals do not.
Unless the PV organisers truly are mad.0 -
Jesus! It looks like squillions. Thank goodness! I thought the country was in the hands of bigots from Hartlepool Stoke and GRIMsbyTheuniondivvie said:I can't quite match the 'I can feel it in ma (no doubt boiling) watter' certainty of some, but this does look like quite a lot.
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/11095282213793792020 -
You are completely barking mad.Casino_Royale said:
My estimations are accurate and spot on, and based on official numbers.mwjfrome17 said:
Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbersviewcode said:
Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.kjh said:
There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.Casino_Royale said:
A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.Omnium said:I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
Makes the real British turnout even lower.
I note that precisely no-one has challenged my calculations downthread.
The dog point is a silly one because PV will have been assessing headcount, to which EU non-voters and underage children contribute, but err.. animals do not.
Unless the PV organisers truly are mad.0 -
You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.kjh said:
I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.Casino_Royale said:
So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.kjh said:
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a)Casino_Royale said:kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.
I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.
Have a good evening.0 -
It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering once.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-the-stop-brexit-petition-reliable0 -
@Casino_Royale why are you so rattled by this huge display of passion for the EU?0
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Fuck off. You're a tosspot who's got nothing else but to say I'm mad and or an idiot, so morally bankrupt are you and your arguments.kjh said:
You are completely barking mad.Casino_Royale said:
My estimations are accurate and spot on, and based on official numbers.mwjfrome17 said:
Yes but they are probably as good as C_R in estimating crowd numbersviewcode said:
Dogs did not vote. They can't vote. They have paws and very limited colour vision and cannot operate a PC or tablet. And they have very little interest in politics.kjh said:
There were dogs as well. So better chop them out of the numbers because they can't vote either. For goodness sake stop harping on about the numbers and get a life.Casino_Royale said:
A fantasy figure claimed by march organisers and a good number of them not British and not even qualified to vote here.Omnium said:I've just come from central London. Quite a lot of foreign accents in the mix of those protesting. I'm not entirely sure I'd be out marching if I lived in another country.
Don't really object of course, and the general mood of those I saw seemed to be that it was a fun day out. I hope they have an enjoyable day. I hope too we get on with the business of Brexit!
Oh, and PS - Happy 15th Birthday PB, and hats off to Mike and the others who've made PB such a jewel of the internet.
Makes the real British turnout even lower.
I note that precisely no-one has challenged my calculations downthread.
The dog point is a silly one because PV will have been assessing headcount, to which EU non-voters and underage children contribute, but err.. animals do not.
Unless the PV organisers truly are mad.
There's nothing remotely "mad" about that point, as you could see if you had even the basics of reading comprehension.0 -
From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers0
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Read her lots of stories, but on no account risk any numbers stuff, you'll only confuse her. Have a nice evening.Casino_Royale said:
You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.kjh said:
I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.Casino_Royale said:
So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.kjh said:
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a)Casino_Royale said:kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.
I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.
Have a good evening.0 -
There was even a march in the Shetlands.0
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I don't think those links support that assertion, although I believe it to be true. In the HMG blog they even say they don't bother checking accounts from the big providers (e.g., google).FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering once.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-is-the-stop-brexit-petition-reliable0 -
Fair play to the Remainers, that was an impressive turnout today. I reckon Brexit might be done for.0
-
The EU made clear that the EU Parliament elections will be the requirement for extension, the indicative votes Parliament holds next week will be something they can consider but will not be the requirement for further extension. So it is the EU Parliament elections and only the EU Parliament elections that is required for extension, the results of the indicative votes will be just something the EU Council will consider for the future negotiations in that extension.Black_Rook said:
Participation in the European Parliament elections is a necessary prerequisite for a further extension, not the sole requirement. The EU27 have made it clear that, if the existing WA is not passed by March 29th, then:HYUFD said:No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
"...the extension will be until 12 April 2019. In that event, the UK will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European Council."
So, Parliament needs to agree on a plan. If MPs simply state that they still haven't a bloody clue what they want the new relationship to be, but they've voted to have the scheduled European elections so that's all OK, then there is nothing new to present to the European Council and no reason for it even to meet and contemplate another delay.
Therefore, Parliament has to make a positive decision on what it wants to do next. If it doesn't make one, we leave by default on April 12th.
Therefore even if Parliament has not made a majority decision as to what to do next in the indicative votes provided it has voted to participate in the EU Parliament elections a further extension will be granted by the EU and we remain in the EU beyond April 12th, effectively indefinitely0 -
London Euston receives about 20 a hourCasino_Royale said:
A coach usually carries a maximum of 60. PV claims 180 coaches, so that’s about 11,000 by coach. Let’s be generous and round up.Foxy said:
There were a lot of children, so yes. A few EU citizens, but not many. Mostly a rich tapestry of British citizens.Casino_Royale said:
That’s a fair point but my point is that a good number on the march wouldn’t be eligible to vote.brendan16 said:
"Yes, real British = British citizens registered here to vote and eligible to vote in a second referendum, as per the original vote, as opposed to EU citizens joining the march out of strong sympathy, who aren’t.
Don’t try and insinuate something that isn’t there."
Some EU citizens can vote though in referendums and national elections - if they are Cypriot, Maltese or Irish. As applies to Commonwealth citizens plus the Irish generally.
Of course very few Commonwealth nations return the favour if we move there - although Brits in Ireland can vote in Dail elections.
A ten coach train can carry about 800 seated in 10 x 80 seat coaches. With standing it can get up to about 1,200. Let’s say 25% of these were PV marchers (it won’t be anything like the majority of the train and most will be regular travellers) and say about 50 such trains arrived this morning, which would have disproportionately concentrated on the Oxford, Bristol, Cambridge and Brighton lines. I’ll double it for good measure. That’s 30,000 by train.
Let’s also say another 10,000 (complete guess) drive or fly in - rare to central London, but not impossible.
I make that about 50,000 adults from rUK travelling into London for the march. The rest would have been from zones 1-6. Deducting about 20% for EU citizens and 10% for kids (again I’m being generous) I reckon you have ...
c.400k marchers of which 120k were non eligible voters, including 40k kids, 280k were and 230k were from Greater London and 50k from elsewhere in the UK
Very impressive but not representative of the “people’s voice” nationwide.
London Waterloo receives about 40 a hour
London Paddington receives about 20 a hour
London Marylebone receives about 10 a hour
London Kings Cross receives about 10 a hour
St Pancras International receives about 25 a hour
London Liverpool Street receives about 15 a hour
London Fenchurch Street receives about 5 a hour
London Charing Cross receives about 20 a hour but let's halve it in case any came from waterloo, so that's 10
Total per hour: 155 trains.
Say arrival over three-four hours, that'll be around 600 trains that came in from outside between 9am and noon. Round down for sensibleness gives us about 500 trains.
I now await the objections from @Sunil_Prasannan as to any obvious mistakes I have made.
0 -
I'm struggling to work out how your mind works. This is what I said re Plato:Casino_Royale said:
You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.kjh said:
I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.Casino_Royale said:
So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.kjh said:
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a)Casino_Royale said:kjh said:
.
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You are right to not necessarily care what people think of you, but you should reflect on why people think like they do. Is it because you are correct and they are all wrong or is it because you are a deluded idiot?
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.
I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.
Have a good evening.
'Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over.'
I think everyone on PB thinks that Plato's posts at the end did change significantly and in a particular way.0 -
He's choosing between Snow White and the Two Dwarves, Ali Baba and the Fifteen Thieves, or the Thirty Four Dalmations.mwjfrome17 said:
Read her lots of stories, but on no account risk any numbers stuff, you'll only confuse her. Have a nice evening.Casino_Royale said:
You have patronised, condescended and insulted me. You've been conflicted between trying to take the high ground, contest the central argument, some cringeworthy attempts to use humorous irony, and to mock me and insult me. You then act surprised when I object. You've also made a rather nasty link to Plato in your last post but one, which has drastically lowered my opinion of you.kjh said:
I tried twice to reach out to you in the last few days and each time you reacted poorly. I even apologised to you regarding messing up a quote. You ignored them. Under the circumstances I think deluded idiot is putting it quite mildly. The emphasis on 'deluded'.Casino_Royale said:
So, you've reducing yourself to the level of calling me an idiot.kjh said:
You just don't read the post do you? I do not make any claims about the numbers. I have no idea what they are. I am not an idiot like you who believes I can calculate them. I also have an open mind unlike you.Casino_Royale said:
I couldn’t care less what people think of me and I will continue to make the point on numbers.kjh said:
a)Casino_Royale said:kjh said:CR re your post to me this morning:
.
I’m sorry about your first point where you’ve decided to try and mount a high horse. I can only recommend you don’t mix messages and arguments in your posts because it makes it impossible to engage with them without potential misunderstanding.
As you know, I didn’t realise about Plato and am rather upset about it.
Being the sole voice against a consensus often leads to ridicule in the first instance.
I’m not going to shut up about it because you’d rather the fantasy figures remained unchallenged.
You obviously think the former. Fair enough. Although I would reflect on the path that Plato eventual took when you think about that, because that is how you are coming over. You may of course be happy with that.
I'm done engaging with you on this subject.
I don't care if you reply to this so you can have the last word. Claim a little victory on that basis if you like. It obviously matters to you.
I'm going to spend time with my baby daughter, who is far more important than you.
Have a good evening.0 -
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.0 -
Just because the scare stories used three years ago turned out to be bollox / lies doesn't mean there wouldn't be significant effects from No Deal.saddo said:What is wrong with no deal? The project fear v2 attached to it is no more credible that v1 was. When did we become a nation of negative whimps?
How significant they would be we don't know and their size and duration would depend greatly on how quickly the government was able to agree multiple mini-deals sector by sector.
Personally I don't see the potential damage as a price worth paying for choosing No Deal over a Deal.0 -
The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other thingsAlanC said:
The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.HYUFD said:
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.0 -
Who could possibly have predicted in John Major's time that one day the country's governance would fall into the hands of the striped blazer brigade on the fruitcake wing of the Tory Party in coalition with the racists homophobes and bigots of the DUP?
What a rich tapestry of a country we live in!
0 -
The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?Peter_the_Punter said:
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.0 -
It probably has a lot to do with people over the last twenty years wanting a bit less Europe, not a bit more. While successive governments dragged us further and further in without seeking the consent of the electorate. Until euroscepticsm went from a fringe cult to a mainstream belief.Roger said:Who could possibly have predicted in John Major's time that one day the country's governance would fall into the hands of the striped blazer brigade on the fruitcake wing of the Tory Party in coalition with the racists homophobes and bigots of the DUP?
What a rich tapestry of a country we live in!
We are where we are because of the failings of our political class. Not the people who wanted to have their say.
0 -
Which is why a very long extension - replacing the transition period - would actually make some sense. If we're going to elect a new batch of MEPs they may as well have their say and the UK keep its place at the table, rather than going into extended limbo as the WA envisages.HYUFD said:
The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other thingsAlanC said:
The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.HYUFD said:
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.0 -
-
+1.twistedfirestopper3 said:Fair play to the Remainers, that was an impressive turnout today. I reckon Brexit might be done for.
The honest truth is that us leavers have had three years now to come up with a plan that works.
There was something close in our grasp, but the hardliners of the ERG rejected it as not being pure enough.
Revolutions eat their children...0 -
If we contest the European elections it would effectively be a very long, if not indefinite, stay in the EU rather than a post Brexit transition period, yesIanB2 said:
Which is why a very long extension - replacing the transition period - would actually make some sense. If we're going to elect a new batch of MEPs they may as well have their say and the UK keep its place at the table, rather than going into extended limbo as the WA envisages.HYUFD said:
The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other thingsAlanC said:
The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.HYUFD said:
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.0 -
The latest estimate appears to be two million. So we can settle on a million plus and Casino will still be happy?
Meanwhile the petition has passed 4.6 million0 -
Hi Peter. Excellent post yesterday about May's 'citizens of nowhere'. I was flicking through the thread last night when I came across it and was so intrigued I read through hundreds of posts trying to get to the source. I never did but I googled Theresa's speech and I think you got it spot on. She has issues....Peter_the_Punter said:
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.0 -
The petition at current rates should hit 5 million by tomorrow morning . Quite remarkable given it really only got going on Wednesday night.0
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Just when I thought Brexit was done for, up pops that tosser to give me hope.HYUFD said:0 -
Moreover, a lot of people understand the basic ideas at play here - 20% of kids at their kids' primary school might be speaking Polish even though it was monolingual when they went there themselves; but they now have the right to go and retire in Spain or France without jumping through so many migration hoops. The business they work in can sell standardised products throughout the EU but in return it has to obey regulations crafted in Brussels not in London. If the British government (and British judges) screw them over on certain rights, they have the ability to go fight their case in a higher court - and the flip side of that is that people can vote for a government that promises it will do something, but despite its democratic mandate will find its hands tied. This stuff isn't incomprehensible and regardless of whether they'd pass a legal examination on the subject, folk generally understand there are trade-offs, the balance of which depends on the kind of country they want to live in.Richard_Tyndall said:
That is a stunningly arrogant comment. Most people don't understand economics either but we still expect them to elect politicians based on their views on economic theory. All the more extraordinary when most of those politicians also have no idea about economics.kinabalu said:
Most of the public do not know what the Single Market is. Nor neither the Customs Union, the ECJ, Schengen, the CAP or the CFP.MyBurningEars said:I reckon that the indicative votes should have been held two years ago and it should have been the general public, not the MPs, who got to vote in them.
Results might have been messy but if there was line by line voting on "should the UK remain in the single market" the other red-line determining issues, before Article 50 was triggered then at least the politicians would have had clearer parameters mandated to them.
It is therefore unwise to allow them anywhere near a ballot box where these things are concerned.
June 2016 and the 1000 days since shows what happens if you do.
Democracy is not clean and straightforward. It doesn't involve highly educated and informed people sitting around in mutual contemplation of the great issues of the day, no matter how much some people might like to portray it that way.
I find it strange you do not want people to have a direct vote on matters of such constitutional importance on the grounds of ignorance and yet are still happy to have those same ignorant people vote to elect their representatives to make laws for us.
Something that the current situation shows they are supremely unsuited for.0 -
Great to see!williamglenn said:There was even a march in the Shetlands.
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Shame , Guy V together with Tusk are two of my favourite European politcians . Not sure why you’re so worried about Brexit not happening . I’m sure it will but will take longer.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Just when I thought Brexit was done for, up pops that tosser to give me hope.HYUFD said:
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No, it wouldn't make sense as you can't negotiate anything while still a member.IanB2 said:
Which is why a very long extension - replacing the transition period - would actually make some sense. If we're going to elect a new batch of MEPs they may as well have their say and the UK keep its place at the table, rather than going into extended limbo as the WA envisages.HYUFD said:
The EU made quite clear provided we commit to participate in the EU Parliament elections a lengthy extension of Article 50, probably indefinite, will be granted. The EU do not want No Deal and all the associated hassle and as long as we continue to pay the cash and stay in the institutions of the EU they are happy to park us on the sidelines and get on with other thingsAlanC said:
The EU definitely want to avoid No Deal, and will agree an extension to avoid that. They want to give us a choice to remain rather than pursue No Deal. That extension is not indefinite. If an extension leads to more of the faffing about that has taken place over the last few months then another one won't be offered.HYUFD said:
No, the summit outcome last week made clear the EU are fine with endless can kicking, they saw the UK Parliament voted to rule out No Deal forever and do not want the hassle of No Deal with all the other problems they have to deal with which is why the EU Council made clear as long as the UK agrees to contest the European Parliament elections it can extend Article 50 as long as it wants and Parliament would vote for that over No Deal even if it cannot yet commit to an alternative Deal or revoking Art 50 or EUref2. The default is increasingly we stay in the EU indefinitely not No Deal.
Brexit is not a first order priority for the EU. They want it over and dealt with so that they can concentrate on other things.0 -
One banner I saw read 'Tewksbury for Europe' - not words you often see together. Another read 'Yorkshire Against Brexit'. I asked him if the other Yorkshire Remainer was here but apparently he couldn't make it.williamglenn said:There was even a march in the Shetlands.
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Shame for who? I'm not worried about Brexit happening or not. At the very least, Brexit coming so close to fruition has ended the careers of many, many politicians out of the current lot. Every cloud, as they say.nico67 said:
Shame , Guy V together with Tusk are two of my favourite European politcians . Not sure why you’re so worried about Brexit not happening . I’m sure it will but will take longer.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Just when I thought Brexit was done for, up pops that tosser to give me hope.HYUFD said:0 -
Har, har, 'mob rule' and 'mood of "the street"'. Dan's got an attack of the vapours. Again.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/11094954620657745920 -
Very kind, Roger. I really was unbothered by the 'citizens of nowhere' phrase until I read it in context. Don't generally get angry about things I read on line, but did about that, briefly.Roger said:
Hi Peter. Excellent post yesterday about May's 'citizens of nowhere'. I was flicking through the thread last night when I came across it and was so intrigued I read through hundreds of posts trying to get to the source. I never did but I googled Theresa's speech and I think you got it spot on. She has issues....Peter_the_Punter said:
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.0 -
David doesn't take into account the continued willingness of the EU to reopen the WA and have a long delay to reconsider, if we give up the customs union red line - the Danish PM reiterated it as a Summit conclusion just two days ago. The point isn't that the CU is part of the WA but that it potentially resolves the need for a backstop (because we're permanently inside anyway).0
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I didn't hear any heckling of Tom Watson, and he was recieved well. Certainly some speakers got a more positive reception than others, but there wasn't any heckling even when Heseltine started praising Mrs Thatcher for her work on the Single Market. It was a very respectful crowd.IanB2 said:
The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?Peter_the_Punter said:
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.0 -
Can't help you with that one. Only saw Sturgeon and she went down very well.IanB2 said:
The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?Peter_the_Punter said:
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
Yes, the Brexit thing cuts right across traditional Party and Class lines.0 -
'Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers' - They've all defected to Labour these days.MikeSmithson said:From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
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Completely OT 1
This looks rather unpleasant. I always fancied one of these cruises but I might have second thoughts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-476800550 -
Yes, I was surprised not to see any. They usually cadge a ride on other people's campaigns.SandyRentool said:
'Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers' - They've all defected to Labour these days.MikeSmithson said:From those I've spoken to who also attended the big anti Iraq war march in 2003 reckon that this was on about the same scale if not a bit more. Just fewer Socialist Worker sellers
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I wasn't at the march myself, as it seemed more useful to plug away in the locals where I'm standing. Anecdotally, there were an unusually large number of people saying they wouldn't vote because they were fed up with politics - this seemed to be predominantly former Tory Leavfers who felt that they'd been sold out by both sides.
One upsetting case was a (non-voting) Jehovah's Witness in a wheelchair (late 70s, I should think) who married a Canadian last year. She's been deported because they can't find the right paperwork and the Home Office suspects the marriage is not "genuine". She's 75, and on the face of it seems unlikely to be seeking to sneak in on a fake marriage so as to...what? Local MP Jeremy Hunt had been asked to help but couldn't. The man was sad but quite resigned about it - "Unfortunately this is what governments on earth are like - it's why we need the Lord."0 -
He initially got some heckling when he said he’d back the deal but then got cheered when he said on condition it went to a public vote .Foxy said:
I didn't hear any heckling of Tom Watson, and he was recieved well. Certainly some speakers got a more positive reception than others, but there wasn't any heckling even when Heseltine started praising Mrs Thatcher for her work on the Single Market. It was a very respectful crowd.IanB2 said:
The coverage I saw, it looked like Tom Watson got heavily heckled?Peter_the_Punter said:
Just got back, FF. Yes, there were a lot of people there. Reminded me of going to the FA Cup final. What struck me most was how white and middle-class the crowd seemed to be. What an irony, I thought. These are exactly the people that Mrs May should be appealing to, the most comfortable with.FF43 said:It looks like a lot of people to me.
Interestingly, it seems most of the 4.5 million signatories to the revoke petition are genuine. While there will be some people registering under multiple personal and work emails and a smaller number of foreign nationals registering, and therefore the figure is inflated a bit, the vast bulk of three signatories appear to be valid voters registering oneo.
https://technology.blog.gov.uk/2016/08/16/scaling-the-petitions-service-following-the-eu-referendum/
In Downing Street, I was lucky enough to catch Nicola Sturgeon's brief speech. I'd heard she was a good speaker and she didn't disappoint. Of course she was preaching to the converted but it was notable that her biggest cheer came when she asked 'Why isn't Jeremy Corbyn here?'
Why indeed. I thought Thursday was his allotment day.
The most remarkable thing about Brexit is how it's turning the class divide on its head, with middle class and business remainers being repelled from the Tories and working class leavers from Labour.
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Just for old time's sake:Theuniondivvie said:Har, har, 'mob rule' and 'mood of "the street"'. Dan's got an attack of the vapours. Again.
Leave 48%
Remain 52%
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My brother and I took my mother on a cruise in 2012 and we ended up in (well, on the edge of) Hurricane Sandy.Richard_Tyndall said:Completely OT 1
This looks rather unpleasant. I always fancied one of these cruises but I might have second thoughts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-476800550 -
The petition isn't proving popular in Walsall North. Only 1.4% have signed it there.0
