politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
Comments
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I'm not betting on this market but if I were I'd be betting against at current odds. Too many people not noted for their willingness to concede defeat who are not yet looking like conceding defeat would need to concede defeat to make this viable.0
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FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.0
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If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
Sixth!0
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Deal or no deal?0
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Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
May needs the 'Go ahead punk, make my day' strategy now.
No more cajoling. Take no prisoners.
Vote for my deal on Wednesday or I will take Brexit off for two years.0 -
The Leave campaign kicked off by proposing a second referendum after a vote to Leave intimidated the EU into offering a new deal. Do you really think they had a better plan?Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
Or even a subsequent general election in which to vote in MPs to do their bidding...Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
Too many would rather be defeated, so long as they could say they never compromised their beliefs.AlastairMeeks said:I'm not betting on this market but if I were I'd be betting against at current odds. Too many people not noted for their willingness to concede defeat who are not yet looking like conceding defeat would need to concede defeat to make this viable.
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Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
You mean they cried off.
If only another Brextremist had made it into the final two...0 -
How did Gove [whom I backed] cry off?Freggles said:Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
You mean they cried off.
If only another Brextremist had made it into the final two...0 -
[Ulster accent]AlastairMeeks said:I'm not betting on this market but if I were I'd be betting against at current odds. Too many people not noted for their willingness to concede defeat who are not yet looking like conceding defeat would need to concede defeat to make this viable.
Never, never, never.......0 -
Two more years of being paid to moan about the EU. Endless invites onto the news, QT, to lavish dinners....rottenborough said:May needs the 'Go ahead punk, make my day' strategy now.
No more cajoling. Take no prisoners.
Vote for my deal on Wednesday or I will take Brexit off for two years.
No brainer.0 -
Team Sky are set to announce a new sponsor - owned by Britain's richest man Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
The broadcaster said in December that it would end its decade-long commitment at the end of 2019, during which time Team Sky have won eight Grand Tours.
The team will be renamed Team Ineos - after the chemicals giant that billionaire Ratcliffe owns.0 -
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
Indeed and Farage and his Brexit party, the continuity SDP (Rod Liddle new member) and old UKIP all gain time to boost their pitch.dixiedean said:
Two more years of being paid to moan about the EU. Endless invites onto the news, QT, to lavish dinners....rottenborough said:May needs the 'Go ahead punk, make my day' strategy now.
No more cajoling. Take no prisoners.
Vote for my deal on Wednesday or I will take Brexit off for two years.
No brainer.0 -
0
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Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
Brexiteers are trying to activate the Queen to stop this, but are running into problems because they can't find her on Facebook.
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/11075568936718090260 -
[Northern Ireland accent]anothernick said:
[Ulster accent]AlastairMeeks said:I'm not betting on this market but if I were I'd be betting against at current odds. Too many people not noted for their willingness to concede defeat who are not yet looking like conceding defeat would need to concede defeat to make this viable.
Never, never, never.......
"The Brits partitioned my country too, you know!"0 -
She's on twitter though and very funny after a few G&Ts.....williamglenn said:Brexiteers are trying to activate the Queen to stop this, but are running into problems because they can't find her on Facebook.
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1107556893671809026
https://twitter.com/Queen_UK/status/1105932633639473153?s=190 -
I'd go further. The artificial division of people into "leavers" and "remainers" is the type of binary, Manichaean, dualistic nonsense that infects so much of our public discourse. I was a bit of a young fogey Eurosceptic, gradually being converted to the benefits of the EU over my professional life after I qualified, but perfectly content to see a properly managed exit process with attainable goals over a realistic period of time. That didn't happen.williamglenn said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
The fundamental mistake, triggering Article 50 without a plan, was done as a result of intense pressure from Tory leavers who could wait no longer. May turned on the shot clock (to use a basketball analogy) before she had to, purely as a result of the pressure to leave placed on her. Anyone who wanted to do this sensibly would have waited. May's inability to consult didn't help but that character flaw is not a result of her being a remainer before the referendum0 -
Shows how desperate Number 10 is now though...Richard_Nabavi said:Ah, looks like I was right:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/11076350292854538240 -
Thought he was now Monaco's richest man , having milked UK of as much as he could get.FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky are set to announce a new sponsor - owned by Britain's richest man Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
The broadcaster said in December that it would end its decade-long commitment at the end of 2019, during which time Team Sky have won eight Grand Tours.
The team will be renamed Team Ineos - after the chemicals giant that billionaire Ratcliffe owns.0 -
It's because Leavers always need someone else to blame.williamglenn said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.0 -
I would hope and assume that the Queen is far better advised than to get anywhere near this. It is a matter of politics and she should stay well away. Again this applies even were she to come down from on high swinging an axe in support of Brexit and smiting Remainers to the right and to the left.williamglenn said:Brexiteers are trying to activate the Queen to stop this, but are running into problems because they can't find her on Facebook.
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1107556893671809026
For the sake of the Institution, the constitution and the country she needs to stay out of this argument.0 -
Just what the people of Utrecht want to hear, Katie Hopkins is on her way there!!!0
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No matter how you wrap it , it is the Tories holding the great steaming turd.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
Except that one of the very first voices to demand Article 50 was that well-known Tory leaver Jeremy Corbyn.DougSeal said:
I'd go further. The artificial division of people into "leavers" and "remainers" is the type of binary, Manichaean, dualistic nonsense that infects so much of our public discourse. I was a bit of a young fogey Eurosceptic, gradually being converted to the benefits of the EU over my professional life after I qualified, but perfectly content to see a properly managed exit process with attainable goals over a realistic period of time. That didn't happen.williamglenn said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
The fundamental mistake, triggering Article 50 without a plan, was done as a result of intense pressure from Tory leavers who could wait no longer. May turned on the shot clock (to use a basketball analogy) before she had to, purely as a result of the pressure to leave placed on her. Anyone who wanted to do this sensibly would have waited. May's inability to consult didn't help but that character flaw is not a result of her being a remainer before the referendum0 -
Yes, some Labour MPs (such as Emma Lewell-Buck) are pretty much saying that. But how many will actually go as far as voting in favour?MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/im-not-even-dipping-a-toe-in-that-fking-mess-says-queen-20190313183515Richard_Tyndall said:
I would hope and assume that the Queen is far better advised than to get anywhere near this. It is a matter of politics and she should stay well away. Again this applies even were she to come down from on high swinging an axe in support of Brexit and smiting Remainers to the right and to the left.williamglenn said:Brexiteers are trying to activate the Queen to stop this, but are running into problems because they can't find her on Facebook.
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1107556893671809026
For the sake of the Institution, the constitution and the country she needs to stay out of this argument.0 -
Her advice would be given quietly and never leaked from her side, in the way she has to many many prime mininsters over 68 years.Richard_Tyndall said:
I would hope and assume that the Queen is far better advised than to get anywhere near this. It is a matter of politics and she should stay well away. Again this applies even were she to come down from on high swinging an axe in support of Brexit and smiting Remainers to the right and to the left.williamglenn said:Brexiteers are trying to activate the Queen to stop this, but are running into problems because they can't find her on Facebook.
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1107556893671809026
For the sake of the Institution, the constitution and the country she needs to stay out of this argument.
She is hardly going to undo a record of not getting involved in political matters by jumping into the single most polarising issue of her reign.
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https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.0 -
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.0 -
Give it time. 48 hours to go should be enough......Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, some Labour MPs (such as Emma Lewell-Buck) are pretty much saying that. But how many will actually go as far as voting in favour?MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
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I don't know what May's been offering Arlene Foster in exchange for DUP support, but Northern Ireland has a space program now.0
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You haven't got 48 hrs. You've got until close of Parliamentary business today for May to be assured that MV3 is going to pass and for the motion to be tabled.MarqueeMark said:
Give it time. 48 hours to go should be enough......Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, some Labour MPs (such as Emma Lewell-Buck) are pretty much saying that. But how many will actually go as far as voting in favour?MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
Correct and indeed anyone who was awake during the referendum campaign would know May is not a remainer. She was even strongly touted as a possible leader of the Leave campaign before she decided sticking with Cameron was the better option. Those decrying May as a Remainer are invariably no-dealers.DougSeal said:
I'd go further. The artificial division of people into "leavers" and "remainers" is the type of binary, Manichaean, dualistic nonsense that infects so much of our public discourse. I was a bit of a young fogey Eurosceptic, gradually being converted to the benefits of the EU over my professional life after I qualified, but perfectly content to see a properly managed exit process with attainable goals over a realistic period of time. That didn't happen.williamglenn said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
The fundamental mistake, triggering Article 50 without a plan, was done as a result of intense pressure from Tory leavers who could wait no longer. May turned on the shot clock (to use a basketball analogy) before she had to, purely as a result of the pressure to leave placed on her. Anyone who wanted to do this sensibly would have waited. May's inability to consult didn't help but that character flaw is not a result of her being a remainer before the referendum0 -
This is what Remainers like you still don't understand. There are no contradictions behind Brexit.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.
In fact long before the word backstop entered our discourse even Barnier himself was touting a Canadian-style FTA as honouring all of our red lines.0 -
Well used to build a time machines there...so anything s possible.Philip_Thompson said:I don't know what May's been offering Arlene Foster in exchange for DUP support, but Northern Ireland has a space program now.
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Close of business tomorrow I think; the vote needs to be Wednesday at the latest.rpjs said:
You haven't got 48 hrs. You've got until close of Parliamentary business today for May to be assured that MV3 is going to pass and for the motion to be tabled.MarqueeMark said:
Give it time. 48 hours to go should be enough......Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, some Labour MPs (such as Emma Lewell-Buck) are pretty much saying that. But how many will actually go as far as voting in favour?MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
BrilliantPhilip_Thompson said:I don't know what May's been offering Arlene Foster in exchange for DUP support, but Northern Ireland has a space program now.
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I do like happy coincidences.Philip_Thompson said:I don't know what May's been offering Arlene Foster in exchange for DUP support, but Northern Ireland has a space program now.
0 -
He could never, ever not have.MarqueeMark said:
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.0 -
The issue I have with this interpretation is that Brexit has turned out broadly as I confidently expected it to turn out. Theresa May is incompetent but here's the thing. She hasn't made any real difference. The political crisis would happened under more or less any prime minister.DougSeal said:
I'd go further. The artificial division of people into "leavers" and "remainers" is the type of binary, Manichaean, dualistic nonsense that infects so much of our public discourse. I was a bit of a young fogey Eurosceptic, gradually being converted to the benefits of the EU over my professional life after I qualified, but perfectly content to see a properly managed exit process with attainable goals over a realistic period of time. That didn't happen.williamglenn said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
The fundamental mistake, triggering Article 50 without a plan, was done as a result of intense pressure from Tory leavers who could wait no longer. May turned on the shot clock (to use a basketball analogy) before she had to, purely as a result of the pressure to leave placed on her. Anyone who wanted to do this sensibly would have waited. May's inability to consult didn't help but that character flaw is not a result of her being a remainer before the referendum
I should say, for a betting site, that I am not good at predictions in general. The last time I felt so confident about an impending clusterfuck was Iraq. For pretty much the same reasons.0 -
He did a particularly good job on the backstop. Getting the EU to trash one of their sacred Four Freedoms and to drive a coach and horses through their red lines on paying for full access to the Single Market was a remarkable achievement.MarqueeMark said:
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.0 -
Ireland says to EU: it’s important that we don’t have a hard border between the republic and Northern Ireland. It was a source of discontent and could reignite the ‘troubles’.MarqueeMark said:
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.
Uk to EU: it’s important that we don’t have a hard border between the republic and Northern Ireland.
EU says: in the absence of a customs agreement we will need to have a border between the frontier of the Eu customs union and the UK’s own customs arrangements.
Ireland and UK: we won’t build one, so what you going to do about it?
EU: it is essential that in the absence of a failure to reach agreement on our future customs agreement to avoid a hard border that we have a ‘backstop’ arrangement that comes in to play which keeps the UK in the EU customs union.0 -
And left as soon as he was given a knighthood.malcolmg said:
Thought he was now Monaco's richest man , having milked UK of as much as he could get.FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky are set to announce a new sponsor - owned by Britain's richest man Sir Jim Ratcliffe.
The broadcaster said in December that it would end its decade-long commitment at the end of 2019, during which time Team Sky have won eight Grand Tours.
The team will be renamed Team Ineos - after the chemicals giant that billionaire Ratcliffe owns.0 -
I think May genuinely did support Remain but had an acute sense of how strongly many in the wider Tory party felt about it which is why she kept her head down and hired people like Stephen Parkinson and Nick Timothy.RobC said:Correct and indeed who was awake during the referendum campaign would know May is not a remainer. She was even strongly touted as a possible leader of the Leave campaign before she decided sticking with Cameron was the better option. Those decrying May as a Remainer are invariably no-dealers.
There's nothing in her previous record to suggest she was a burning Eurosceptic. Arguably even her well-publicised issues with the ECHR were a deliberate misdirection.0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Just what the people of Utrecht want to hear, Katie Hopkins is on her way there!!!
God help the Right using a terrorist event to take advantage of the situation to score political points and settle grievances. The left would never ever do that.0 -
Just a burning xenophobe.williamglenn said:
I think May genuinely did support Remain but had an acute sense of how strongly many in the wider Tory party felt about it which is why she kept her head down and hired people like Stephen Parkinson and Nick Timothy.RobC said:Correct and indeed who was awake during the referendum campaign would know May is not a remainer. She was even strongly touted as a possible leader of the Leave campaign before she decided sticking with Cameron was the better option. Those decrying May as a Remainer are invariably no-dealers.
There's nothing in her previous record to suggest she was a burning Eurosceptic. Arguably even her well-publicised issues with the ECHR were a deliberate misdirection.0 -
What I heard (from a junior minister who worked with her a lot) was that she was genuinely undecided. She leaned towards coming down on the Leave side, but the clinching argument which finally made her vote Remain was that she could see the importance of EU-wide cooperation in combating terrorism and crime. And to be fair, her big speech before the referendum laying out her views was nuanced and consistent with that.williamglenn said:
I think May genuinely did support Remain but had an acute sense of how strongly many in the wider Tory party felt about it which is why she kept her head down and hired people like Stephen Parkinson and Nick Timothy.RobC said:Correct and indeed who was awake during the referendum campaign would know May is not a remainer. She was even strongly touted as a possible leader of the Leave campaign before she decided sticking with Cameron was the better option. Those decrying May as a Remainer are invariably no-dealers.
There's nothing in her previous record to suggest she was a burning Eurosceptic. Arguably even her well-publicised issues with the ECHR were a deliberate misdirection.0 -
You voted for this pig in a poke. Bit much gloating now, unless you are admitting you have seen the error of your ways?bigjohnowls said:
When are our remaining cards arriving.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
I thought Michael Gove said we held them all in 2016 looks like Failing Grayling was charged with delivery.
0 -
So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?0 -
UK: No that's not possible I'm afraid, we're leaving the EU customs union but are happy to co-operate as best as we can.notme2 said:
Ireland says to EU: it’s important that we don’t have a hard border between the republic and Northern Ireland. It was a source of discontent and could reignite the ‘troubles’.MarqueeMark said:
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.
Uk to EU: it’s important that we don’t have a hard border between the republic and Northern Ireland.
EU says: in the absence of a customs agreement we will need to have a border between the frontier of the Eu customs union and the UK’s own customs arrangements.
Ireland and UK: we won’t build one, so what you going to do about it?
EU: it is essential that in the absence of a failure to reach agreement on our future customs agreement to avoid a hard border that we have a ‘backstop’ arrangement that comes in to play which keeps the UK in the EU customs union.
Conceding the backstop was a grave error.0 -
The people have voted. MPs are not the people.Cyclefree said:So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?0 -
Well quite. It is extraordinary that Leavers find it so unpalatable – it is by far the best feature of the WA.Richard_Nabavi said:
He did a particularly good job on the backstop. Getting the EU to trash one of their sacred Four Freedoms and to drive a coach and horses through their red lines on paying for full access to the Single Market was a remarkable achievement.MarqueeMark said:
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.0 -
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
0 -
rcs1000 said:
BrilliantPhilip_Thompson said:I don't know what May's been offering Arlene Foster in exchange for DUP support, but Northern Ireland has a space program now.
The Mouse on the Moon?0 -
cherrypicking, even._Anazina_ said:
Well quite. It is extraordinary that Leavers find it so unpalatable – it is by far the best feature of the WA.Richard_Nabavi said:
He did a particularly good job on the backstop. Getting the EU to trash one of their sacred Four Freedoms and to drive a coach and horses through their red lines on paying for full access to the Single Market was a remarkable achievement.MarqueeMark said:
One word: backstop. He should never, ever have accepted the principle.FF43 said:https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107606521565888512
The dire Theresa May gets more despicable. Actually the deal Olly Robbins put together is a decent one on its own terms, given the poor parameters Robbins had to work with. It doesn't give away too much sovereignty in of itself and presents a plausible impression of seriousness. That it will fall apart in a week, if it ever gets passed, entirely reflects the contradictions behind Brexit. The deal will have served its purpose of getting the UK out of the EU and into the unknown.0 -
Something incredibly important is what Mike Smithson has mentioned on here before: Labour leavers are far less fixated about Brexit than Conservative ones. Put another way, they're flakey on the topic.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
Frankly when the General Election comes I don't think it will make a fig of difference to most Labour voters how their MP voted on Brexit.0 -
question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU0 -
Uh? It can be tabled up until tomorrow evening and voted on Wednesday.rpjs said:
You haven't got 48 hrs. You've got until close of Parliamentary business today for May to be assured that MV3 is going to pass and for the motion to be tabled.MarqueeMark said:
Give it time. 48 hours to go should be enough......Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, some Labour MPs (such as Emma Lewell-Buck) are pretty much saying that. But how many will actually go as far as voting in favour?MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....0 -
Yes that’s right.Cyclefree said:So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?
As in right wing demagoguery of the most venal sort.0 -
The easy spin for labour MPs is that the deal was very bad, so bad even Tory leavers didn't want it...0
-
Yes. Ratify a deal. The exit date is not the end of A50 period, it is the date a deal comes into force or end of the period if there is no deal.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
We could extend for 2 years this week and still be out before the elections if the deal got ratified.0 -
She's offered them the moon (on a stick). Rather than pineapple and cheese on a stick.Philip_Thompson said:I don't know what May's been offering Arlene Foster in exchange for DUP support, but Northern Ireland has a space program now.
0 -
The exit date in the withdrawal agreement could be before the end date of the newly extended Article 50 period, but it would be subject to negotiation with the EU.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU0 -
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
0 -
another question: if TM does apply for a long extension does parliament have to sign it off and if so the ERG and DUP could collude with labour to VONC the government before HOC has chance to sign it off?0
-
That flakiness of course doesn't extend to Kate Hoey who this morning seemed to be bigging up her buddies in the DUP as people who will never give way on the backstop.Mysticrose said:
Something incredibly important is what Mike Smithson has mentioned on here before: Labour leavers are far less fixated about Brexit than Conservative ones. Put another way, they're flakey on the topic.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
Frankly when the General Election comes I don't think it will make a fig of difference to most Labour voters how their MP voted on Brexit.0 -
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU0 -
What's more, c half of Leavers don't want the Deal. They want No Deal.Mysticrose said:
Something incredibly important is what Mike Smithson has mentioned on here before: Labour leavers are far less fixated about Brexit than Conservative ones. Put another way, they're flakey on the topic.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
Frankly when the General Election comes I don't think it will make a fig of difference to most Labour voters how their MP voted on Brexit.
Therefore, those angry at those voting for should approximately equal those angry at voting against.0 -
I would dispute that it was pressure from the Tory leavers. It was clear at the time that the main pressure was coming from the EU themselves who refused to get involved in any discussions until It was invoked and who were openly complaining about the delays.DougSeal said:
I'd go further. The artificial division of people into "leavers" and "remainers" is the type of binary, Manichaean, dualistic nonsense that infects so much of our public discourse. I was a bit of a young fogey Eurosceptic, gradually being converted to the benefits of the EU over my professional life after I qualified, but perfectly content to see a properly managed exit process with attainable goals over a realistic period of time. That didn't happen.williamglenn said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Freggles said:
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
The difference is that socialists have implemented socialism and its been a failure, whereas Brexit was implemented by Remainers. Putting Robbins and May in charge of Brexit is like putting Fred Goodwin and Jeffrey Skilling in charge of socialism.
The fundamental mistake, triggering Article 50 without a plan, was done as a result of intense pressure from Tory leavers who could wait no longer. May turned on the shot clock (to use a basketball analogy) before she had to, purely as a result of the pressure to leave placed on her. Anyone who wanted to do this sensibly would have waited. May's inability to consult didn't help but that character flaw is not a result of her being a remainer before the referendum0 -
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
Ms Hoey is somewhat Sui Generis.RobC said:
That flakiness of course doesn't extend to Kate Hoey who this morning seemed to be bigging up her buddies in the DUP as people who will never give way on the backstop.Mysticrose said:
Something incredibly important is what Mike Smithson has mentioned on here before: Labour leavers are far less fixated about Brexit than Conservative ones. Put another way, they're flakey on the topic.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
Frankly when the General Election comes I don't think it will make a fig of difference to most Labour voters how their MP voted on Brexit.0 -
Huge surprise klaxon:
"Jeremy Corbyn hints he could back Leave in second Brexit vote"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-corbyn-hints-he-could-back-leave-in-second-brexit-vote-kr7vlzdbp0 -
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
T
Hoey is a disgrace.dixiedean said:
Ms Hoey is somewhat Sui Generis.RobC said:
That flakiness of course doesn't extend to Kate Hoey who this morning seemed to be bigging up her buddies in the DUP as people who will never give way on the backstop.Mysticrose said:
Something incredibly important is what Mike Smithson has mentioned on here before: Labour leavers are far less fixated about Brexit than Conservative ones. Put another way, they're flakey on the topic.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
Frankly when the General Election comes I don't think it will make a fig of difference to most Labour voters how their MP voted on Brexit.0 -
Because we will have agreed to the new date. It's like invoking article 50 in the first place - there's a two year period and we can leave with no deal at the end of it, but not before.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
Hoey is very likely to be deselected.RobC said:
That flakiness of course doesn't extend to Kate Hoey who this morning seemed to be bigging up her buddies in the DUP as people who will never give way on the backstop.Mysticrose said:
Something incredibly important is what Mike Smithson has mentioned on here before: Labour leavers are far less fixated about Brexit than Conservative ones. Put another way, they're flakey on the topic.SouthamObserver said:
Labour MPs are first answerable to their CLPs, almost all of which will be jam-packed full of Remainers who will, in most cases, take a very dim view of their MP backing a deal when it could have been defeated. It's also worth remembering that most Labour voters in most Leave seats were likely to be Remain voters or less-bothered Leave voters.MarqueeMark said:
Look at Labour MPs.Richard_Nabavi said:A 32% chance sounds too high to me. She's getting closer, but it's hard to see how she'll get enough votes even with the DUP.
There is a real risk for them here. Let's say May buys off the DUP. Let's say the die-hard ERG number 25. Let's say the number of Labour MPs voting against is 250. Who do Leaver Labour voters blame for Brexit not happening - some soft southern Toff Tory who they've never heard of - or their Labour MP they voted for? That Labour MP said they would implement Brexit. Good luck geting ther vote next time. When "next time" could be really very soon.....
Frankly when the General Election comes I don't think it will make a fig of difference to most Labour voters how their MP voted on Brexit.
0 -
As far as understood things you can revoke a treaty as a sovereign nation if you believe the other party is not acting in good faith. At the end of the what are they going to do to stop us?RobD said:
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
I see no basis for repeatedly bringing the WA back to Parliament once it has been voted on, absent any change to the WA itself. It's bullying.Philip_Thompson said:
The people have voted. MPs are not the people.Cyclefree said:So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?
And, even more importantly, an agreement which is bludgeoned through in this way has no real consent. It will be undermined by those who don't really want it the moment after it goes through. The EU know this; they can see the sorts of games both Tories and Labour have been playing and they will take this into account during the transition period - when I fully expect them to make strenuous efforts to persuade industries to relocate to the EU in view of the political climate in Britain - and in relation to the FTA negotiations where they will do everything possible to nail down Britain in a way to prevent us competing with the EU, whether this is on the basis of the Tories' Singapore-on-Thames vision or Corbyn's autarkic socialist vision.
Far better either to get people's consent to it or to revoke Article 50 and think hard about what we really want as a country before taking such important decisions.0 -
Well you can. Countries have unilaterally denounced treaties in the past. That's usually been in the context of war breaking out though.RobD said:
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.
However who'd want to make new treaties, including trade deals, with a country that unilaterally breaks other treaties?0 -
Pretty sure any SI to change the exit date in the EUWA needs both houses to positively approve it.williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
What would it achieve for the government to declare 'no deal' while the UK was still in the EU according to EU and UK law? It would just make them look even less credible.kjohnw said:
As far as understood things you can revoke a treaty as a sovereign nation if you believe the other party is not acting in good faith. At the end of the what are they going to do to stop us?RobD said:
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
But why does the anti-democratic principle that you are not allowed to reconsider your own decision apply to the people, but not to MPs?Philip_Thompson said:
The people have voted. MPs are not the people.Cyclefree said:So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?0 -
couldn't we just repeal the 1972 European communities act that took us in , in the first place?williamglenn said:
What would it achieve for the government to declare 'no deal' while the UK was still in the EU according to EU and UK law? It would just make them look even less credible.kjohnw said:
As far as understood things you can revoke a treaty as a sovereign nation if you believe the other party is not acting in good faith. At the end of the what are they going to do to stop us?RobD said:
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
How would they not be acting in good faith? If the UK wanted to leave with no deal, there is a clear procedure for that.kjohnw said:
As far as understood things you can revoke a treaty as a sovereign nation if you believe the other party is not acting in good faith. At the end of the what are they going to do to stop us?RobD said:
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.0 -
That's not unreasonable. Referenda carry a great deal more moral weight than Parliamentary resolutions do.Cyclefree said:So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?0 -
How's the Brexit march coming on?
Are they down to single figures?
0 -
Precisely why I said you can’t just decide not to folllow it.rpjs said:
Well you can. Countries have unilaterally denounced treaties in the past. That's usually been in the context of war breaking out though.RobD said:
It’s a treaty. Can’t just decide not to follow it.kjohnw said:
why not unilaterally? we are a sovereign nation aren't we?williamglenn said:
Not unilaterally. The 'no deal' cliff edge would be fixed at the new A50 date.kjohnw said:
if we extend then a new pm decides to go no deal can we unilaterally leave before extension end date?RobD said:
Probably in the same way it was at the behest of the EU before. If a treaty is concluded, we’ll leave. That requires both parties to agree.kjohnw said:question:
once article 50 is extended is there any legal way for the government to leave the EU before the end of the extension? or are we then at the behest of the EU
On your other question, the date change can be made via a statutory instrument so I don't think there's any way the ERG can veto it.
However who'd want to make new treaties, including trade deals, with a country that unilaterally breaks other treaties?
0 -
Richard_Tyndall said:DougSeal said:
I would dispute that it was pressure from the Tory leavers. It was clear at the time that the main pressure was coming from the EU themselves who refused to get involved in any discussions until It was invoked and who were openly complaining about the delays.williamglenn said:
I'd go further. The artificial division of people into "leavers" and "remainers" is the type of binary, Manichaean, dualistic nonsense that infects so much of our public discourse. I was a bit of a young fogey Eurosceptic, gradually being converted to the benefits of the EU over my professional life after I qualified, but perfectly content to see a properly managed exit process with attainable goals over a realistic period of time. That didn't happen.Philip_Thompson said:
If you go back further, Gove was a Remainer and Leadsom was a Remainer. I don't know why you put so much significance in where people stood in the run up to the referendum.Freggles said:
Unfortunately they didn't. Two of the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign stood for the leadership election but the MPs overwhelmingly backed May instead. Look where that's left us.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
Of course, you expect anything else?TOPPING said:
This is how it's going to be isn't it - shoulda woulda coulda from Leavers. If only it had been done properly....Philip_Thompson said:
When the alternative is No Deal. Which MPs have chosen to remove as an option.Streeter said:BMW is leaving it a bit late to turn up and save Brexit.
What's the latest betting on when they're going to intervene?
Very similar to socialists, in fact.
If only the leaders of the Vote Leave campaign had had the opportunity to take over.
The fundamental mistake, triggering Article 50 without a plan, was done as a result of intense pressure from Tory leavers who could wait no longer. May turned on the shot clock (to use a basketball analogy) before she had to, purely as a result of the pressure to leave placed on her. Anyone who wanted to do this sensibly would have waited. May's inability to consult didn't help but that character flaw is not a result of her being a remainer before the referendum
There was pressure from the EU but there was a terrific amount of cheering from the leave side when she did so. The amount of abuse that the Supreme Court got as a result of Gina Miller's application arose as a result of a fear of delay.0 -
Mr Tyndall,
" … the EU themselves who refused to get involved in any discussions until It was invoked and who were openly complaining about the delays."
Indeed they did, but many Leavers were in a hurry too because they feared Parliament would try to fart around for as long as possible to delay Brexit. How right they were.0 -
Not in a Parliamentary democracy when one of the arguments made during the referendum was to restore Parliamentary sovereignty.Sean_F said:
That's not unreasonable. Referenda carry a great deal more moral weight than Parliamentary resolutions do.Cyclefree said:So, let me make sure I understand this.
May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.
The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.
Have I got this right?0
