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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

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  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    Good, having a referendum on a withdrawal agreement was stupid anyway.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    edited March 2019
    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    It's not a stupid rule - it's pretty standard in politics, even humble Labour party branches have it - prevents idiots with bees in their bonnet bringing back the same old boll*cks at every meeting. Or trying to browbeat people into voting for something they don't really think is a good idea just to get the topic to go away.

    Just like May is doing with the WA..
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Scott_P said:
    It is also good for the UK's negotiating position because the EU knows now that the deal is dead unless they offer more. The EU are effectively negotiating now with Bercow as to what constitutes "significant change".
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    MV3 cannot come back so nothing to amend. Remainers haven't thought it through
    Remainers think all roads lead to Remain...

    But unless something changes we're leaving the EU in (almost) ten days time with or without a deal...
    Wrong assumption, there at e a lot of us who have opposed the lunacy but realise we cannot remain. People who support leave have made us such a laughing stock we cannot remain in the EU. It is now a question of what type of leave we have to endure with damage limitation. We will probably have to grovel our way back in in 20 years time.

    As I have said many times, there is no mandate for leaving without a deal, and hopefully not even this government with it's tendency to appease thickos will not let it happen. Extension of A50 or a further embarrassment of revocation followed by reissue. It will turn into the Brexit hokey cokey .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    It isn't because isn't substantially different to the TIG amendment.
    Yes but the main motion is dead, so there is nothing to attach an amendment too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    Ha, knew Bercow would act to stop the government getting a third go. Anyone who balked at MV2 on the basis they intended to go for MV3 looking silly. Not sure why theres surprise, he as much as said he'd do this.

    Frankly the way Erskine mentions it you could justify bringing anything back if you really wanted but there is that presumption and it is up to the speaker to decide.

    No Brexit here we come.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    That's what I suggested immediately. This could be helpful to May as if the EU want the deal signing they need to now agree a change rather than just relying on MPs changing their minds.

    They may not want a deal though.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Weimar had PR, didn't it?

    What you're seeing in this parliament is a glimpse into what Britain under PR would be like: large parties in hock to small-to-medium-sized fringe ones. The collapse of the Lib Dems means that there isn't a big enough centre.
    There are, I think, signs of a LD revival.
    Nope, there are signs of Con/Lab uselessness, and signs of LD activists being motivated by meaningless district council by-elections in the middle of winter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261
    Nigelb said:

    With the benefit of hindsight, the bailout of RBS might have been more profitably managed....
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47609536
    A payment processing firm that used to be owned by Royal Bank of Scotland has been sold in a deal worth $43bn (£32bn)...

    I believe we got a couple of billion for it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Sean_F said:

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
    Popular sing-ist...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    And all this for an agreement about withdrawing. We have to fo it all agai gor the future relationship.
    As my old man would say screw that for a game of soldiers
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    It isn't because isn't substantially different to the TIG amendment.
    Yes but the main motion is dead, so there is nothing to attach an amendment too.
    Correct. The deal is finished.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Can I amend a previous comment? I said MPs were now thought of somewhere between lawyers and child-molesters. I think child-molesters just moved up one place.

    Sack 'em all. Start again with a fresh batch.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    Exactly. Bercow has paralysed brexit. Both sides seem to be pleased but they have not thought this through.

    Indeed labour now asking how they can put their amendments - panic happening
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    Sean_F said:

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
    Who or what surely!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    James Gray talking utter bollocks on R5L. Speaker is thwarting Brexit, by preventing a vote on this. Something he has voted against twice! (Which played NO part whatsoever in thwarting it obvs).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If we do somehow finish up going out with No Deal I can see Bercow being thrown to the wolves by Parliament the very next day in the same way Speaker Martin was (rather unfairly) thrown to the wolves over all those dodgy expenses fiddlers... ;)

    Martin should never have been there in the first place, he was a roaster of the top order, filled his pockets to the brim and did zilch for his constituents.
    Indeed. But it was still unfair the way a Parliament of expenses fiddlers threw him out to try and save their own skins.

    I think Speaker B is heading for a very similar end.
    GIN , he will go out a hero
    He should not make such decisions to be a remainer hero. But in this case he has more to justify his decision anyway.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    It isn't because isn't substantially different to the TIG amendment.
    Yes but the main motion is dead, so there is nothing to attach an amendment too.
    I see what you mean. Yes, but if the government wan't to bring another meaningful vote it will need to pre-amend its own motion to make it different, so it could go for something like the Kyle amendment.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    They won't. Try another idea.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    kle4 said:

    Ha, knew Bercow would act to stop the government getting a third go. Anyone who balked at MV2 on the basis they intended to go for MV3 looking silly. Not sure why theres surprise, he as much as said he'd do this.

    Frankly the way Erskine mentions it you could justify bringing anything back if you really wanted but there is that presumption and it is up to the speaker to decide.

    No Brexit here we come.

    Or if May is so minded (I don't think she is but....) No Deal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    MV3 cannot come back so nothing to amend. Remainers haven't thought it through
    Remainers think all roads lead to Remain...

    You appear to keep assuming that all leavers are of one opinion, and all leavers are of another.

    Which is simply nonsense.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Methinks Prologuing Parliment is the only solution.

    Otherwise, Parliment cannot do anything....simple as that.
  • We could see 'Peak Gammon' very shortly!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    My take on this is that Bercow is a) enforcing the constitutional rules and b) telling May that if she wants MV3 she needs to be sure she has a majority/or is very close to a majority.

    I think he'll allow a vote if she has the numbers.

    To be fair it is taking the piss bringing a vote back just to get mullered again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak
    Follow Follow @bbclaurak
    More Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted BBC Politics
    This might sound a bit boring but it's massive - minister tells me he's now made this a 'constitutional crisis' - as the law stands we are leaving the EU in ten days - Speaker has just said the PM cant have another go at getting her deal through

    She didn't want this but she did warn people not to keep voting down her deal. That would take away any part of it being bercows call.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Sean_F said:

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
    Who or what surely!
    Yes. They are a popular singer.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Methinks Prologuing Parliment is the only solution.

    Otherwise, Parliment cannot do anything....simple as that.

    Wouldn’t that require a state opening and Queen’s Speech to kick off the “new” session though?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    It isn't because isn't substantially different to the TIG amendment.
    Yes but the main motion is dead, so there is nothing to attach an amendment too.
    Correct. The deal is finished.
    So is a referendum
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    We now need to dust off the most arcane bits of parliamentary convention - what's involved in proroguing and starting a new session, and how long does it take?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    edited March 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
    Who or what surely!
    Yes. They are a popular singer.
    He was a popular singer.
  • Andrea Leadsom boots Bercow
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    I hope it's banned from both bathrooms.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Streeter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    They won't. Try another idea.
    Prorogue Parliament to 1 April.
  • Bercow v Leadsom on BBC Parliament right now is quite entertaining.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sean_F said:

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
    A singer. Or a "pop singer" if you are the sort of person who still insists on calling the radio "the wireless"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Mr. Gin, au contraire.

    Bercow was at risk of going over bullying allegations, but strong Labour support helped him to Remain.

    And he has rewarded that support today.

    Lucky for him to actually have some precedent sometime. It's very important when it aligns with what he wants.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Fenster said:

    My take on this is that Bercow is a) enforcing the constitutional rules and b) telling May that if she wants MV3 she needs to be sure she has a majority/or is very close to a majority.

    I think he'll allow a vote if she has the numbers.

    To be fair it is taking the piss bringing a vote back just to get mullered again.

    The problem (and joy) of our constitution is that our rules are not rules.

    There is too much power in the hands of the Speaker on this particular subject - particularly when we have a Speaker who chooses to only follow convention when it suits him.

    We are living through dangerous times when the Speaker is seeking to be so active in political matters.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Leadsom and Bercow spitting tacks at each othere....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    It's not a stupid rule - it's pretty standard in politics, even humble Labour party branches have it - prevents idiots with bees in their bonnet bringing back the same old boll*cks at every meeting. Or trying to browbeat people into voting for something they don't really think is a good idea just to get the topic to go away.

    Just like May is doing with the WA..
    I appreciate it might be sensible if Mrs Dickensworth wants it to be party policy to distribute fruit fancies outside Morrisons, but we are talking about the immediate future of our country and in that context it is stupid.

    No point holding on to one sensible element in a world of madness because it breaks the space-time continuum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    That's what I suggested immediately. This could be helpful to May as if the EU want the deal signing they need to now agree a change rather than just relying on MPs changing their minds.

    They may not want a deal though.
    They dont. They want us to remain.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Bercow's got immense power at the moment, and I think that he might be enjoying wielding it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261
    edited March 2019

    We now need to dust off the most arcane bits of parliamentary convention - what's involved in proroguing and starting a new session, and how long does it take?

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/parliamentwork/offices-and-ceremonies/overview/prorogation1/prorogation/
    In recent decades, when Parliament has met all the year round, the prorogation of one session has usually been followed by the opening of a new session of Parliament a few days later.

    Which doesn't help much.

    Prorogation is instituted by the Sovereign on the advice of the Privy Council.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    Streeter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    They won't. Try another idea.
    Prorogue Parliament to 1 April.
    And how does that help?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    no brainer of course - as I said, it will be side letter (ie PD)-dependent.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    dixiedean said:

    James Gray talking utter bollocks on R5L. Speaker is thwarting Brexit, by preventing a vote on this. Something he has voted against twice! (Which played NO part whatsoever in thwarting it obvs).

    Exactly as @williamglenn predicted upthread!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Bercow confirms he didn't tell anyone about the content of this statement.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Streeter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    They won't. Try another idea.
    Prorogue Parliament to 1 April.
    And how does that help?
    Start the new session having Brexited and address how we move on rather than whether to extend/revoke/leave with a deal/leave without a deal. Will end the uncertainty and actually do something.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. kle4, quite.

    Mr. Difficile, maybe he's a berdache?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Silly of John Bercow to make his announcement on a day when all anyone is going to be talking about is Sam Smith's gender identification.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Sterling thinks we'll work it all out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rpjs said:

    Methinks Prologuing Parliment is the only solution.

    Otherwise, Parliment cannot do anything....simple as that.

    Wouldn’t that require a state opening and Queen’s Speech to kick off the “new” session though?
    That's a problem. It is convention for a QS to contain some government policies.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If Parliament were prorogued would the Speaker have to be dragged to the chair [ie could he be challenged] at the start of the new session, or does that only happen after elections?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Sean_F said:

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
    A singer. Or a "pop singer" if you are the sort of person who still insists on calling the radio "the wireless"
    I've never heard of him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Fantastic news for Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab. It gets both of them off an excruciating hook.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TOPPING said:

    Sterling thinks we'll work it all out.

    Mr Sterling thought the referendum result would be Remain.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    time for a vote to change the rules then.....to suspends and change the standing orders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261
    dixiedean said:

    rpjs said:

    Methinks Prologuing Parliment is the only solution.

    Otherwise, Parliment cannot do anything....simple as that.

    Wouldn’t that require a state opening and Queen’s Speech to kick off the “new” session though?
    That's a problem. It is convention for a QS to contain some government policies.
    "My government will bring forward the WA, again.... er that's it."
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Anyone who thinks a Brexit reversal that will lead to a halving of the Tory membership and their vote collapsing on 2nd May is unimportant should note recent history has demonstrated parties don't recover well from the decimation of their activist and councillor base. One of the reasons the Lib Dem revival has not yet occurred.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Sterling thinks we'll work it all out.

    Mr Sterling thought the referendum result would be Remain.
    that's also true!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Bercow's got immense power at the moment, and I think that he might be enjoying wielding it.

    He has grown on me. Mainly because he seems to wind up some fairly repulsive people on the Tory right I have to confess! That aside, I think history will judge him quite well if it overlooks his alleged bullying.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    Has any parliament ever tied itself up in so many knots as this one ? It's not even all remain way traffic with a blocking majority against the EU-ref and the Benn amendment.
  • Scott_P said:
    It was very distasteful and the way he spoke to her is going to cause great concern among female mps. He is arrogant and has got himself too deeply into controversy
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Bercow's little eyes were sparking and he seemed to be enjoying himself. At keast, someone was happy. I can't see the EU changing anything now they have the backwind from the UK Parliament. So why should they?

    Instead, they'll force Mrs May to hold another referendum (they have form), and hope for a narrow Remain vote. Relish a neutered UK presence in the EU. Gins all round for Juncker and his pals.



  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I think the Government should do the following:

    1) Prorogue Parliament until 1 April

    2) Failing that, call a GE
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Bercow has been clear he is servant of the house. If, and it is not clear they would agree, the house by majority demanded they be allowed to vote on the deal again, and make whatever procedural changes necessary to allow that, how does he then say no given his usual logic?

    Not that that seems a very sensible course, messing around like that in a panic rarely helps
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261

    Silly of John Bercow to make his announcement on a day when all anyone is going to be talking about is Sam Smith's gender identification.

    I thought it was a Tadcaster brewery ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_P said:
    That's idiotic (not you Scott). If there's a VONC and May gets brought down, then they wilol get their way. They don't have the numbers full stop....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    That's what I suggested immediately. This could be helpful to May as if the EU want the deal signing they need to now agree a change rather than just relying on MPs changing their minds.

    They may not want a deal though.
    Including permanent membership of the customs union would be a significant change.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Scott_P said:
    MV3 cannot come back so nothing to amend. Remainers haven't thought it through
    ? If it was incumbent on approval via Deal vs Remain referendum, I dare say that it would qualify as having been substantially changed.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Honestly, the ERG have shown themselves for months to be total incompetents. Think about the complete fiasco over No Confidence in Theresa May.

    They are now desperately clinging to the idea that we will exit on No Deal.

    No we won't. The House of Commons has already rejected that option and it will only take an MP to table an emergency measure for revocation or statute.

    No Deal is off the table. So is May's deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Did nobody wargame this s scenario in no.10? It was raised weeks ago as possible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261

    Streeter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    They won't. Try another idea.
    Prorogue Parliament to 1 April.
    Fool.
    :smile:
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    The title of this thread is now somewhat inaccurate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    That's what I suggested immediately. This could be helpful to May as if the EU want the deal signing they need to now agree a change rather than just relying on MPs changing their minds.

    They may not want a deal though.
    They dont. They want us to remain.
    Na, I think we might well have overstayed our welcome. I think many in the EU will happily see the backs of "us", or at least where "us" means the head banging swivel-eyed fraternity that are irrationally convinced of British superiority in all matters.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    This deal is only the first stage of leaving the EU: the real work begins afterwards. And yet we've proven unable to get even this deal past parliament, and all this farting about will have seriously pissed off the EU. They must be heartily sick of us now.

    Even if it now passes by either a bending of parliamentary convention or an EU concession, it does not bode well for the rest of the process: either on our side or the EU's.

    A clean start might be the best way out of this mess.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    It isn't because isn't substantially different to the TIG amendment.
    Yes but the main motion is dead, so there is nothing to attach an amendment too.
    Correct. The deal is finished.
    So is a referendum
    We don't need a referendum to revoke Article 50.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    rpjs said:

    Methinks Prologuing Parliment is the only solution.

    Otherwise, Parliment cannot do anything....simple as that.

    Wouldn’t that require a state opening and Queen’s Speech to kick off the “new” session though?
    That's a problem. It is convention for a QS to contain some government policies.
    "My government will bring forward the WA, again.... er that's it."
    Whilst I don't think the Queen will intervene per se, I could see her forcefully advise TM that she's opposed to prorogation as it would draw her into a partisan issue.
  • Bercow's got immense power at the moment, and I think that he might be enjoying wielding it.

    He has grown on me. Mainly because he seems to wind up some fairly repulsive people on the Tory right I have to confess! That aside, I think history will judge him quite well if it overlooks his alleged bullying.
    How can history view a bully quite well
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    This deal is only the first stage of leaving the EU: the real work begins afterwards. And yet we've proven unable to get even this deal past parliament, and all this farting about will have seriously pissed off the EU. They must be heartily sick of us now.

    Even if it now passes by either a bending of parliamentary convention or an EU concession, it does not bode well for the rest of the process: either on our side or the EU's.

    A clean start might be the best way out of this mess.

    I'm starting to think you're right. A clean slate then rebuild from there.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Hypothetically, if May asks the Commons to vote on revocation of Article 50 (let's say she gives her party a free vote and they split roughly down the middle), what do Labour do in response?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A clean start might be the best way out of this mess.

    We won't agree what a clean start looks like.

    Pre-referendum?

    Post vote, pre-article 50?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Pulpstar said:

    Has any parliament ever tied itself up in so many knots as this one ?

    The long parliament?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261
    RoyalBlue said:

    I think the Government should do the following:

    1) Prorogue Parliament until 1 April

    2) Failing that, call a GE

    Technically, it does not appear to be the government that prorogues parliament.

    And they would need a parliamentary majority to vote for a GE.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Bercow's got immense power at the moment, and I think that he might be enjoying wielding it.

    He has grown on me. Mainly because he seems to wind up some fairly repulsive people on the Tory right I have to confess! That aside, I think history will judge him quite well if it overlooks his alleged bullying.
    The alleged bullying that came to light at just the moment it would have been convenient to get him out of the speaker's chair?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr G,

    "How can history view a bully quite well."

    The old ones are the best. "Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited March 2019
    A few candidates back/lay prices on Betfair:

    Elizabeth Warren: 30/46
    Tulsi Gabbard: 34/36

    John Hickenlooper: 75/120
    Hillary Clinton: 70/85

    Julian Castro: 130/170
    Michelle Obama: 140/150

    Moral of the story: Not very liquid markets have funny oddities.

    (All prices to be nominee)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Has any parliament ever tied itself up in so many knots as this one ?

    The long parliament?
    Perhaps this one should be called the Wrong Parliament. It works on several levels.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Didn't we all see this coming last week when Bryant withdrew his amendment?

    Well, all of us except the government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    This was of course the reason the amendment on not having a mv3 was pulled. If parliament had voted against that harder for Bercow to make this call
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    CD13 said:

    Bercow's little eyes were sparking and he seemed to be enjoying himself. At keast, someone was happy. I can't see the EU changing anything now they have the backwind from the UK Parliament. So why should they?

    Instead, they'll force Mrs May to hold another referendum (they have form), and hope for a narrow Remain vote. Relish a neutered UK presence in the EU. Gins all round for Juncker and his pals.



    Hilarious. Thanks for the best example I have seen in a while of nationalistic paranoia. The interesting thing about nationalism is its mix of superiority and inferiority all wrapped up in one. The cunning furriners are out to get us even through we are much better than they are.
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