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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

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  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited March 2019
    TM, Leadsom et al on the naughty step...

    (EDIT: And also MPs who have played silly buggers in the past and are only now thinking of changing)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Dynamite
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    What do we do now lol
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Hard to fault Bercow here. Over to you Prime Minister...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Well, that's that.

    If one wishes to get Brexit through in the future, one must first change the Speaker.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    T

    Scott_P said:
    Good!

    You know what would allow a MV3? A change to the deal.
    You know what would allow MV3 to be won? A change to the deal.

    Are you listening Barnier? Time to change the deal!
    No, he’s not listening. Got any bright ideas?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Hard to fault Bercow here. Over to you Prime Minister...

    Well and the EU....

    I presume if required they can add into the deal something like free KFC for EU diplomats during the transition period.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    tlg86 said:

    Hard to fault Bercow here. Over to you Prime Minister...

    Regardless of your views this has to be right. Well done Mr Speaker.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    A motion on Brexit for another so-called meaningful vote.

    Member for Wallasey asked if it would be proper to bring it back ad infinitem.

    Subsequently, members on both side of the Brexit argument about the House being repeatedly asked to prononce on the smae proposition.

    Erskine May - a motion which is the same may not be brought forward again during the same session. For the Chair. Dates back to 1604.

    Re-asserted by 4 different Speakers. Each time the Speaker ruled that a motion could not be brought back. It is a necessary rule to ensure the sensible use of the House's time.

    So far as the present situation is concerned, summarises events. Vote on "the Deal" due on 11th December; postponed on 10th December. Not caused by the Speaker or the House, but by the Govt. five weeks later, the first MV was held on 15th January. Loat by 230 votes. Subsequently, the second MV was to be hed in February. Brought again, but did not fall foul, because it could be credibly be argued it wa sa different proposition - legal changes the Govt considered binding. Moreover, accompanied by the publication of three new documents.

    In procedural terms, proper that it be held. (cont.)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Someone shut him up - we know what happened. This is just grand-standing on his behalf

    And this rule is not essential for the smooth running of Parliament - people are just using it to create even more chaos than anyone can stand.
  • Bercow rules out MV3 without changes
  • Bercow rules out MV3.

    UH OH.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Oh boy Oh boy Oh boy.....
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    As Bercow's car sticker said, bollocks to Brexit. I'm sure it's just a coincidence he does this now, just as the vote numbers are getting close.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    If we do somehow finish up going out with No Deal I can see Bercow being thrown to the wolves by Parliament the very next day in the same way Speaker Martin was (rather unfairly) thrown to the wolves over all those dodgy expenses fiddlers... ;)
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    "If the government wishes to bring forward a new proposition, which is neither the same of substantially the same as the one disposed of by the house, that would be entirely in order. What the government can't do is bring back the same motion. This motion should not be regarded as my last word.. it is simply the test by which I will judge" blah blah
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Afternoon all :)

    On our friend timmo's "report from a LD insider" (ok) that Tom Brake may stand in the leadership election, fine. I helped in a very small way to get Tom into Parliament in 1997 and he's survived five Conservative attempts to unseat him. He would be a valuable addition to the race and I would certainly like to hear what he has to say.

    If MV3 (4,5,6 or whatever) is off the table, the options narrow even further.

    So will the EU grant May a long extension? One option might be she would have to revoke A50 now and perhaps in 6-12 months re-start the process with a clearer sense of what we want and what the EU will accept which might mean A50 (2) can be completed in less than 24 months. This is the Clarke/Tusk option.

    I can't see the EU granting a long extension without something from the UK and I don't know what conditions might be such that May finds them unacceptable. Forcing a second referendum might be seen to be trampling all over Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Taking an EU summit to 28/3 seems wholly unnecessary brinkmanship - if we have to leave without a Deal, so be it otherwise let's take our time, reflect and start the process again in a few months with a much clearer idea of what we want.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    It has been strongly rumoured that possibly third and even fourth motions will be tabled.

    My conclusion: if the Govt. wishes to bring forward a proposition that is different, that would be in order. What it cannot do is submit the same proposition lost by 149 votes. It is meant to indicate the test the Govt.must meet in order for me to vote that another vote can be heard in this session.....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So now, we get to issue of what 'change' is and how it's defined.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Norm said:

    kjohnw said:

    to agree an extension all 27 countries of the EU have to agree to it. Is that a dead cert?

    Both Andrew Neil and James Forsyth, both of whom are I suspect sympathetic to Brexit, are adamant that the EU will not want to carry the blame for a no-deal outcome. So good as a dead cert.
    And the fact that people, by and large, act on incentives. As the EU wants us to remain in the EU, they are unlikely to seek a course of action that actively removes us from the EU when we are asking (temporarily) to remain in it.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    tlg86 said:

    Hard to fault Bercow here. Over to you Prime Minister...

    Well and the EU....

    I presume if required they can add into the deal something like free KFC for EU diplomats during the transition period.
    "Or substantially the same", I think was the phrase :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    So now, we get to issue of what 'change' is and how it's defined.

    Make it subject to a second referendum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    Could a different motion be bought and then amended to create MV3 by the backdoor ?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I think this might end up with an extension and an election. Unfortunately that probably won't resolve anything.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    No Deal it is then.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Bill Cash praises Bercow's decision.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    So now, we get to issue of what 'change' is and how it's defined.

    Make it subject to a second referendum.
    So when that fails to pass the house I take it the same principle will hold ?
  • I think this helps TM in so far as she can now go to the EU meeting and the choices should be clearer and will enable MV3 to be redefined
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Speaker is within his rights. It’s a poor decision though so far as the third meaningful vote is concerned. The mood of some on the winning side has noticeably changed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    edited March 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    No Deal it is then.....

    In your dreams.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Bercow rules out MV3 without changes

    First 2 words
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    No Deal it is then.....

    God willing.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I like the idea that if you start down a road which you soon realise leads to a dead end, you have a moral duty to go all the way to the end before you're allowed to turn round.

    :smiley:
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    Streeter said:

    T

    Scott_P said:
    Good!

    You know what would allow a MV3? A change to the deal.
    You know what would allow MV3 to be won? A change to the deal.

    Are you listening Barnier? Time to change the deal!
    No, he’s not listening. Got any bright ideas?
    It's isn't down to him surely. Down to our PM. (And I can't see Olly Robbins being remarkably helpful or inventive. Although that's unfair to a loyal civil servant.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    3 dead, 5 injured in Utrecht, Mayor says.
  • Bill Cash praises Bercow's decision.

    He thinks no deal is inevitable
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    JRM "delighted" - not least as he can stop sweating over which way he was gonna vote.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, let me make sure I understand this.

    May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.

    The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.

    Have I got this right?

    The people have voted. MPs are not the people.
    But why does the anti-democratic principle that you are not allowed to reconsider your own decision apply to the people, but not to MPs?
    We are allowed to reconsider our decision. Once its been implemented.
    Why "once it has been implemented"? Where is the sense in that?

    Putting it another way, what is your answer to this:

    Thought experiment.

    20 years in the future global warming looks ten times as urgent and frightening a problem as it does now. Also, the problems with thorium reactors seem to have been ironed out. They look safe and cheap. However, there is lots of opposition to nuclear power and the government decides to hold a referendum as to whether to convert the whole country (except existing renewables) to thorium energy. Thorium wins 52:48.

    Three years later nobody can decide how to finance the conversion or who to give the work to, the estimated budget has risen tenfold, and new research shows that for pregnant women, living within 50 miles of a thorium reactor has precisely the same effect as thalidomide.

    Is it antidemocratic to have a second referendum at this stage, or are we obliged to convert the country to thorium as a precondition for having one?
    Bravo.

    Superb post.

    PB at its best.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Each avenue closed off makes another referendum relatively more attractive.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, let me make sure I understand this.

    May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.

    The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.

    Have I got this right?

    The people have voted. MPs are not the people.
    But why does the anti-democratic principle that you are not allowed to reconsider your own decision apply to the people, but not to MPs?
    We are allowed to reconsider our decision. Once its been implemented.
    Why "once it has been implemented"? Where is the sense in that?

    Putting it another way, what is your answer to this:

    Thought experiment.

    20 years in the future global warming looks ten times as urgent and frightening a problem as it does now. Also, the problems with thorium reactors seem to have been ironed out. They look safe and cheap. However, there is lots of opposition to nuclear power and the government decides to hold a referendum as to whether to convert the whole country (except existing renewables) to thorium energy. Thorium wins 52:48.

    Three years later nobody can decide how to finance the conversion or who to give the work to, the estimated budget has risen tenfold, and new research shows that for pregnant women, living within 50 miles of a thorium reactor has precisely the same effect as thalidomide.

    Is it antidemocratic to have a second referendum at this stage, or are we obliged to convert the country to thorium as a precondition for having one?
    Bravo.

    Superb post.

    PB at its best.
    Other than the fact that the analogy is bizarre.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Surely a paving vote to set aside the convention would be in order, if the House had the numbers?
  • rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He did explain that very well
  • Holy shitballs Batman!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Didn't expect Bercow to make No Deal happen. Amazing stuff.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Bill Cash praises Bercow's decision.

    He thinks no deal is inevitable
    It's always been the default...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Pioneers, did you lose your expletive-repellent batspray?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Anyone who thinks this paves the way for No Deal ... there's not the slightest chance Parliament will allow it.

    Forget it.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    No deal or revoke?
    Whats an equivocator to do?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    How did Angela Eagle ever get into Parliament? She can hardly string a sentence together.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    I like the idea that if you start down a road which you soon realise leads to a dead end, you have a moral duty to go all the way to the end before you're allowed to turn round.

    It's more like the idea that if you start down a road that leads to the edge of a cliff, you have a moral duty to fall to the bottom of the cliff before you're allowed to turn around.

    :smiley::smiley::smiley:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Bercow has now provided some very useful cover for May. Is she clever enough to take it?
  • I do not like Bercow and he is a remainer but his explanation of his decision was careful laid out and I cannot really fault his judgement even if I would like to. He is correct
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    To be fair it's not a pointless convention, it's quite sensible. However, it's arguable that it shouldn't apply to the current circumstances where there's a brick-wall deadline approaching and no other course of action has found favour in the House.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, let me make sure I understand this.

    May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.

    The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.

    Have I got this right?

    The people have voted. MPs are not the people.
    But why does the anti-democratic principle that you are not allowed to reconsider your own decision apply to the people, but not to MPs?
    We are allowed to reconsider our decision. Once its been implemented.
    Why "once it has been implemented"? Where is the sense in that?

    Putting it another way, what is your answer to this:

    Thought experiment.

    20 years in the future global warming looks ten times as urgent and frightening a problem as it does now. Also, the problems with thorium reactors seem to have been ironed out. They look safe and cheap. However, there is lots of opposition to nuclear power and the government decides to hold a referendum as to whether to convert the whole country (except existing renewables) to thorium energy. Thorium wins 52:48.

    Three years later nobody can decide how to finance the conversion or who to give the work to, the estimated budget has risen tenfold, and new research shows that for pregnant women, living within 50 miles of a thorium reactor has precisely the same effect as thalidomide.

    Is it antidemocratic to have a second referendum at this stage, or are we obliged to convert the country to thorium as a precondition for having one?
    Bravo.

    Superb post.

    PB at its best.
    Other than the fact that the analogy is bizarre.
    It was a very sharp analogy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    I think this might end up with an extension and an election. Unfortunately that probably won't resolve anything.

    On the contrary, escaping this current hell sounds cathartic.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Boom, have it
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    Bill Cash praises Bercow's decision.

    He thinks no deal is inevitable
    He's mistaken...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    Next move for the Gov't is to adopt the Kyle-Walker Amendment into the substantive, whip against and then have an amendment tabled "subject to no referendum" ?
    Would that work ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Jonathan said:

    I think this might end up with an extension and an election. Unfortunately that probably won't resolve anything.

    On the contrary, escaping this current hell sounds cathartic.
    Not if we come back to the same hell, which seems near-certain.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    She has no choice now, unless she can 'pull' something out with EU to convice Bercow to allow it,.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    To be fair it's not a pointless convention, it's quite sensible. However, it's arguable that it shouldn't apply to the current circumstances where there's a brick-wall deadline approaching and no other course of action has found favour in the House.
    These are indeed extreme circumstances. As I said below, the House surely need only to vote in favour of setting aside the convention, in order to then consider MV3.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Nabavi, Sisyphus, Tantalus, and so forth do seem to present precedents...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    _Anazina_ said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, let me make sure I understand this.

    May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.

    The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.

    Have I got this right?

    The people have voted. MPs are not the people.
    But why does the anti-democratic principle that you are not allowed to reconsider your own decision apply to the people, but not to MPs?
    We are allowed to reconsider our decision. Once its been implemented.
    Why "once it has been implemented"? Where is the sense in that?

    Putting it another way, what is your answer to this:

    Thought experiment.

    20 years in the future global warming looks ten times as urgent and frightening a problem as it does now. Also, the problems with thorium reactors seem to have been ironed out. They look safe and cheap. However, there is lots of opposition to nuclear power and the government decides to hold a referendum as to whether to convert the whole country (except existing renewables) to thorium energy. Thorium wins 52:48.

    Three years later nobody can decide how to finance the conversion or who to give the work to, the estimated budget has risen tenfold, and new research shows that for pregnant women, living within 50 miles of a thorium reactor has precisely the same effect as thalidomide.

    Is it antidemocratic to have a second referendum at this stage, or are we obliged to convert the country to thorium as a precondition for having one?
    Bravo.

    Superb post.

    PB at its best.
    Other than being utter bollocks. For a start any government that, under those circumstances, asked the public their opinion would be guilty of a huge dereliction of duty. They would simply reverse the decision.

    Of course our politicians know that this is neither such a situation and that they would rightly be utterly discredited and destroyed at the next election. The very fact they haven't simply revoked shows exactly how stupid the analogy is.
  • Bill Cash praises Bercow's decision.

    He thinks no deal is inevitable
    He's mistaken...
    He is indeed. I think Bercow has helped TM rather than hindered
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's telling that Brexiteers and Labour are delighted. Gov't fuming.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    edited March 2019

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    She has no choice now, unless she can 'pull' something out with EU to convice Bercow to allow it,.
    What does she go to the EU for an extension FOR though ? Another referendum clearly doesn't have the numbers unless the Gov't whips for, and I can't see that happening.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Blimey, Mark Francois made a sharp point there. End times.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    I think this helps TM in so far as she can now go to the EU meeting and the choices should be clearer and will enable MV3 to be redefined

    I suspect that is exactly what will happen and we'll see amended MV3 next week.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Couldn't the partisan hack have made this clear to the House BEFORE MV1 and 2 were held?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    I think this might end up with an extension and an election. Unfortunately that probably won't resolve anything.

    On the contrary, escaping this current hell sounds cathartic.
    Not if we come back to the same hell, which seems near-certain.
    If we get rid of May, that will be a huge help.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Yes, Bercow is right here. Wonder what minor change the EU will allow to the deal so it can be brought again.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1107672326957662209

    LOL basically, i'll do what the f*** i'll want...
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I think this might end up with an extension and an election. Unfortunately that probably won't resolve anything.

    On the contrary, escaping this current hell sounds cathartic.
    Not if we come back to the same hell, which seems near-certain.
    If we get rid of May, that will be a huge help.
    In this crisis it is the last thing needed. There is no time to change the chairs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    She has no choice now, unless she can 'pull' something out with EU to convice Bercow to allow it,.
    What does she go to the EU for an extension FOR though ? Another referendum clearly doesn't have the numbers unless the Gov't whips for, and I can't see that happening.
    EURef2
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Could central office enforce passing of the deal to be a promise of all MPs though ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    So the header becomes obselete.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Am I being thick, or has Bercow just got May off the hook from another failed MV vote?
  • Foxy said:

    So the header becomes obselete.

    Not yet
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902

    Anyone who thinks this paves the way for No Deal ... there's not the slightest chance Parliament will allow it.

    Forget it.

    Okay, let's try some argument. IF there is to be no MV3, the timeline takes May to the EU summit at the end of the week. She will ask for an extension - will the EU grant it? Will such granting be conditional and what conditions will be set?

    Alternative options if an extension isn't politically acceptable (perhaps because it would mandate us to hold a second vote for example) come down to just two - revocation by which I mean we abandon the A50 process for now and we commit to re-starting in say 6 months having sorted out within the UK what kind of WA we want and whether such a WA will clear the Commons.

    The alternative to revocation is to allow the clock to run down to 29/3 and we leave without a WA

    The weakness of the UK Government AND Parliament is now fully exposed - we are contingent on the EU granting an extension and hoping such an extension doesn't come with such conditions as to be politically impossible for said Government.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1107673144704356359

    Oooof!!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    She has no choice now, unless she can 'pull' something out with EU to convice Bercow to allow it,.
    What does she go to the EU for an extension FOR though ? Another referendum clearly doesn't have the numbers unless the Gov't whips for, and I can't see that happening.
    She can do it free vote style like with the extension, while Labour whip for it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Could central office enforce passing of the deal to be a promise of all MPs though ?
    No. Neither main party could present a coherent manifesto on Brexit.
  • Am I being thick, or has Bercow just got May off the hook from another failed MV vote?

    You are not thick and yes, he most certainly has
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Slackbladder, a good point, and there have also been Commons defeats for the proposal to stay in the customs union.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Deal vs Remain. She isn't going to voluntarily have a GE. Crazy as it sounds (given where we are) there are too many unknowns and Jezza back up on the stump would be in his element.

    MV3 must come somehow and it must be side letter-related.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    He's not HER speaker, he's the speaker of the house.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    I think George is still somewhat bitter...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cyclefree said:

    So, let me make sure I understand this.

    May repeatedly bringing her deal to Parliament for a vote despite it having been heavily defeated twice, once on the original version and once on the renegotiated one, is democracy in action, despite it looking very much like the EU's hated habit of making people vote again and again until they get the right answer.

    The voters being asked their opinion on the proposed WA versus the alternatives is an affront to democracy.

    Have I got this right?

    The people have voted. MPs are not the people.
    But why does the anti-democratic principle that you are not allowed to reconsider your own decision apply to the people, but not to MPs?
    We are allowed to reconsider our decision. Once its been implemented.
    If we are going to be given the opportunity to change our minds surely it makes do so when we would still be able to remain on the advantageous terms and conditions that we currently have.

    I know that some hardline leavers want us to lose our current benefits in the hope it makes it less attractive to return. Fair enough but let's not pretend to be putting the national interest first.

    If we don't get a final say It would be highly ironic if Brexit then turned out so badly that we voted to rejoin, Euro and all!
This discussion has been closed.