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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

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  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    She has no choice now, unless she can 'pull' something out with EU to convice Bercow to allow it,.
    What does she go to the EU for an extension FOR though ? Another referendum clearly doesn't have the numbers unless the Gov't whips for, and I can't see that happening.
    Would another vote on a referendum be allowed? Would it be substantially different to the previous vote?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Benn setting massive trap for government....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Theresa May paying the price for losing her majority: the big winner was The Speaker.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    This is how Brexit ends.
    This is how Brexit ends.
    This is how Brexit ends.
    Not with a bang, but with a procedural ruling from the Speaker.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Wasn't the main problem that John Prescott was adamantly against it?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So Bercow refusing any MV3 unless the EU changes the deal. Which they won't.

    So we're not getting anything before July... Extention or No deal is ONLY option now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1107672326957662209

    LOL basically, i'll do what the f*** i'll want...

    That sounds like the way twitter enforce their rules...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Deal vs Remain. She isn't going to voluntarily have a GE. Crazy as it sounds (given where we are) there are too many unknowns and Jezza back up on the stump would be in his element.

    MV3 must come somehow and it must be side letter-related.
    Tentative timetable:

    - May agrees extension on March 21st
    - Big People's Vote rally on March 23rd
    - May makes MV3 on March 25th a free vote subject to a second referendum
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Mogg looking very pensive.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1107672326957662209

    LOL basically, i'll do what the f*** i'll want...

    That sounds like the way twitter enforce their rules...
    The Commons has voted against so many things through this process.. what is left?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1107672326957662209

    LOL basically, i'll do what the f*** i'll want...

    That sounds like the way twitter enforce their rules...
    The Commons has voted against so many things through this process.. what is left?
    Revoke?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1107672326957662209

    LOL basically, i'll do what the f*** i'll want...

    That sounds like the way twitter enforce their rules...
    The Commons has voted against so many things through this process.. what is left?
    Revocation?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    So Bercow basically setting himself as sole voice on what brexit is or isn't allowed??

    F**k me....
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Deal vs Remain. She isn't going to voluntarily have a GE. Crazy as it sounds (given where we are) there are too many unknowns and Jezza back up on the stump would be in his element.

    MV3 must come somehow and it must be side letter-related.
    Tentative timetable:

    - May agrees extension on March 21st
    - Big People's Vote rally on March 23rd
    - May makes MV3 on March 25th a free vote subject to a second referendum
    TM cannot bring back MV3 so all ideas on amendments including a referendum fall as well

    Not sure this helps remain
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Deal vs Remain. She isn't going to voluntarily have a GE. Crazy as it sounds (given where we are) there are too many unknowns and Jezza back up on the stump would be in his element.

    MV3 must come somehow and it must be side letter-related.
    Tentative timetable:

    - May agrees extension on March 21st
    - Big People's Vote rally on March 23rd
    - May makes MV3 on March 25th a free vote subject to a second referendum
    - Tory vote collapses on 2nd May
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Is there any way that No Dealers could at some point filibuster the business of the House until 30th March? Does a variation of the 29th March date need to go through the House to be validated?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Wasn't the main problem that John Prescott was adamantly against it?
    Because he couldn't spell "PR", right?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_P said:
    That is because he is a knob more interested in the sound of his own voice than respecting Parliament. He isn't a progressive - he is an interventionist who is determined to use the chair for his own ends rather than really working for the benefit of Parliament and voters.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1107672326957662209

    LOL basically, i'll do what the f*** i'll want...

    That sounds like the way twitter enforce their rules...
    The Commons has voted against so many things through this process.. what is left?
    Revoke?
    Seems like it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Would be ironic if the government now prorogued Parliament until 1st April starting a new session of Parliament with "so we've left, now what".
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Perhaps Osborne should have gone away and got to know his electorate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    So Bercow refusing any MV3 unless the EU changes the deal. Which they won't.

    So we're not getting anything before July... Extention or No deal is ONLY option now.

    Why not revocation? Isn't that still a legal option?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    How long is the current session of Parliament scheduled to last?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    On our friend timmo's "report from a LD insider" (ok) that Tom Brake may stand in the leadership election, fine. I helped in a very small way to get Tom into Parliament in 1997 and he's survived five Conservative attempts to unseat him. He would be a valuable addition to the race and I would certainly like to hear what he has to say.

    If MV3 (4,5,6 or whatever) is off the table, the options narrow even further.

    So will the EU grant May a long extension? One option might be she would have to revoke A50 now and perhaps in 6-12 months re-start the process with a clearer sense of what we want and what the EU will accept which might mean A50 (2) can be completed in less than 24 months. This is the Clarke/Tusk option.

    I can't see the EU granting a long extension without something from the UK and I don't know what conditions might be such that May finds them unacceptable. Forcing a second referendum might be seen to be trampling all over Parliamentary sovereignty.

    Taking an EU summit to 28/3 seems wholly unnecessary brinkmanship - if we have to leave without a Deal, so be it otherwise let's take our time, reflect and start the process again in a few months with a much clearer idea of what we want.

    Tom Brake standing? It would be the only memorable thing he's done in a 22 year parliamentary career. Other than not wearing a tie
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election*

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    *With a Tory Candidate in Buckingham, no doubt :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    EU says "No"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Is there any way that No Dealers could at some point filibuster the business of the House until 30th March? Does a variation of the 29th March date need to go through the House to be validated?

    No it can be done by a minister without further reference to the House.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election*

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    *With a Tory Candidate in Buckingham, no doubt :)
    Bercow probably does better than most independents, but not well enough I think.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Endillion said:

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Wasn't the main problem that John Prescott was adamantly against it?
    Because he couldn't spell "PR", right?
    John never had his proportions under control
  • Scott_P said:
    MV3 cannot come back so nothing to amend. Remainers haven't thought it through
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Sean_F said:


    How long is the current session of Parliament scheduled to last?

    Until July.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3PKE8uTSp8
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    EU says "No"
    Indeed because of Parliament voting to rule out No Deal. Had Parliament not done that there is no way Bercow would have done this today.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Bercow certainly knows how to place a cat amongst the feathery beings.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Actually, we and the government and the commentariat should have seen this coming - after all, a number of MPs have been pointing to this convention for a while.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election*

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    *With a Tory Candidate in Buckingham, no doubt :)
    Bercow probably does better than most independents, but not well enough I think.
    If the others stand aside (as per convention) I think it would be very tight. 49% Leave...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Norm said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Surely she'll jump straight to extension?

    Yes, I think so. But she needs to make clear what the extension is supposed to be for, which is why I think an election is quite likely. The only other thing an extension could be used for is a referendum, but there's no way the party will accept that, and almost certainly not Labour and therefore parliament either.
    Deal vs Remain. She isn't going to voluntarily have a GE. Crazy as it sounds (given where we are) there are too many unknowns and Jezza back up on the stump would be in his element.

    MV3 must come somehow and it must be side letter-related.
    Tentative timetable:

    - May agrees extension on March 21st
    - Big People's Vote rally on March 23rd
    - May makes MV3 on March 25th a free vote subject to a second referendum
    - Tory vote collapses on 2nd May
    No Dealers back VONC and force GE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    We are now in a full blown constitutional crisis.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_P said:
    Rory is spot on. We are wasting Parliamentary time with this statement. Why not spend every minute between now and 29th March debating and voting to get this thing resolved?

    Surely that is the best use of time.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election*

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    *With a Tory Candidate in Buckingham, no doubt :)
    Bercow probably does better than most independents, but not well enough I think.
    If there's a GE and the Tories win a majority bercow wouldn't get back in as speaker even if he stood and won in Buckingham
    If no majority then it barely matters as we'd either have PM jezza or chaos
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Is there any way that No Dealers could at some point filibuster the business of the House until 30th March? Does a variation of the 29th March date need to go through the House to be validated?

    Yes. The order to change the exit date has to be confirmed by both houses.

    I don’t think filibustering is allowed inthe Commons though.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Scott_P said:
    A referendum cannot instruct Parliament
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Scott_P said:
    MV3 cannot come back so nothing to amend. Remainers haven't thought it through
    Remainers think all roads lead to Remain...

    But unless something changes we're leaving the EU in (almost) ten days time with or without a deal...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Bercow going out of way to piss off the government now..opening insulting them frankly.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Bercow certainly knows how to place a cat amongst the feathery beings.
    A cat isn't the animal that springs to mind. Bercow reminds me more of that old internet meme about "honey badger don't care... honey badger don't give a s---".
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    GIN1138 said:

    If we do somehow finish up going out with No Deal I can see Bercow being thrown to the wolves by Parliament the very next day in the same way Speaker Martin was (rather unfairly) thrown to the wolves over all those dodgy expenses fiddlers... ;)

    Martin should never have been there in the first place, he was a roaster of the top order, filled his pockets to the brim and did zilch for his constituents.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Bercow going out of way to piss off the government now..opening insulting them frankly.

    Whilst at the same time saying that he is never rude - which he was being in the same breath.

    He really is a knob.
  • rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Do not assume that you can make your electoral system prevent an outcome you don't want. Think Labour in Scotland. They thought they'd be in power for ever after they rigged the Holyrood voting system. Then the SNP outflanked them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    She gets a shot at keeping her job if she jumps to 4).

    What are the ERG going to do? What can they do? VONC the government? Perhaps so but then we get GE anyway.

    What is the procedure for a second referendum?
  • Looks like this has stopped any prospect of any amendments so the whole process is paralysed, other than TM obtaining an extension
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Am I being thick, or has Bercow just got May off the hook from another failed MV vote?

    It would have been pulled in any case, this just stops the chicanery dead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Looks like this has stopped any prospect of any amendments so the whole process is paralysed, other than TM obtaining an extension

    GE 2019
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited March 2019
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If we do somehow finish up going out with No Deal I can see Bercow being thrown to the wolves by Parliament the very next day in the same way Speaker Martin was (rather unfairly) thrown to the wolves over all those dodgy expenses fiddlers... ;)

    Martin should never have been there in the first place, he was a roaster of the top order, filled his pockets to the brim and did zilch for his constituents.
    Indeed. But it was still unfair the way a Parliament of expenses fiddlers threw him out to try and save their own skins.

    I think Speaker B is heading for a very similar end.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261
    edited March 2019
    With the benefit of hindsight, the bailout of RBS might have been more profitably managed....
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47609536
    A payment processing firm that used to be owned by Royal Bank of Scotland has been sold in a deal worth $43bn (£32bn)...
  • Looks like this has stopped any prospect of any amendments so the whole process is paralysed, other than TM obtaining an extension

    GE 2019
    It does look likely now.

    We can have it on the same day as the EU elections, just for LOLZ.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Bercow going out of way to piss off the government now..opening insulting them frankly.

    Whilst at the same time saying that he is never rude - which he was being in the same breath.

    He really is a knob.
    TM is the knob IMO

    2 MASSIVE DEFEATS

    Motion not changed lets abuse Parliament
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Fenman said:

    Scott_P said:
    A referendum cannot instruct Parliament
    Yes, Parliament's made that very clear.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    She gets a shot at keeping her job if she jumps to 4).

    What are the ERG going to do? What can they do? VONC the government? Perhaps so but then we get GE anyway.

    What is the procedure for a second referendum?
    Potentially, May bringing forward a MV which is substantially different by including something like "subject to a referendum". I can't see it happening but to be honest I've given up predicting what's happening half an hour out from now...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    She gets a shot at keeping her job if she jumps to 4).

    What are the ERG going to do? What can they do? VONC the government? Perhaps so but then we get GE anyway.

    What is the procedure for a second referendum?
    I have no idea how realistic it was but it was mooted that the 1922 Committee could change the rules on challenging the PM and so bring forward another leadership challenge.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    She gets a shot at keeping her job if she jumps to 4).

    What are the ERG going to do? What can they do? VONC the government? Perhaps so but then we get GE anyway.

    What is the procedure for a second referendum?
    I think we do need a GE. This House of Commons can agree nothing.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Bercow going out of way to piss off the government now..opening insulting them frankly.

    Whilst at the same time saying that he is never rude - which he was being in the same breath.

    He really is a knob.
    TM is the knob IMO

    2 MASSIVE DEFEATS

    Motion not changed lets abuse Parliament
    As if you'd give two shits about Jezza the clown 'abusing' Parliament.
  • AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    Does this matter?

    MV3 was going to fail anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What does May go to the EU with ? What on earth does she say now !

    Amend the deal.
    EU says "No"
    Indeed because of Parliament voting to rule out No Deal. Had Parliament not done that there is no way Bercow would have done this today.
    You're basically saying that if Parliament hadn't taken control, it wouldn't have taken control.

    But that is what happens when a government doesn't command a parliamentary majority.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Weimar had PR, didn't it?

    What you're seeing in this parliament is a glimpse into what Britain under PR would be like: large parties in hock to small-to-medium-sized fringe ones. The collapse of the Lib Dems means that there isn't a big enough centre.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Gin, au contraire.

    Bercow was at risk of going over bullying allegations, but strong Labour support helped him to Remain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Seems like the penny might, again be dropping this is not helpful to the ERG.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Alasdair said:

    Does this matter?

    MV3 was going to fail anyway.

    Indeed. What's more the amendment to attach a second referendum is also dead in the water.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Bercow was at risk of going over bullying allegations, but strong Labour support helped him to Remain.

    .... and this period, the end-game of Brexit, was exactly why. It wasn't remotely hidden, he'd have been booted out long before now otherwise.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497

    rpjs said:

    rpjs said:

    Sean_F said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    You would have hoped the government would have been abreast of this convention. But, these days, no level of abject incompetence surprises me.
    Bercow adheres to convention, and changes convention, as it suits his purposes.

    One thing ought to be clear. The Speakership is now a partisan role.
    I'd say if anything Bercow was partisanly in favour of the government by allowing MV2 in the first (second?) place.
    He himself just explained why MV2 did not fall foul of this rather pointless convention
    I doubt you'd think it pointless if the Corbyn administration saw the Socialism (Red in Tooth and Claw) Bill just fail its third reading.
    The way around that is a suitable form of PR. It provides a barrier to extremism even if the speaker is partisan, i.e. it's a further check on the executive.

    Brussels has PR, Whitehall doesn't.

    Blair ditched the Jenkins report, setting out how to implement PR here, when he saw the size of his majority. The other main UK party has never been interested although Hannan supports PR.
    Weimar had PR, didn't it?

    What you're seeing in this parliament is a glimpse into what Britain under PR would be like: large parties in hock to small-to-medium-sized fringe ones. The collapse of the Lib Dems means that there isn't a big enough centre.
    There are, I think, signs of a LD revival.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Sir Robert Syms

    Prorogue if you dont change your ruling because of time pressure

    Bercow Its not me thats caused the time pressure
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    MaxPB said:

    Alasdair said:

    Does this matter?

    MV3 was going to fail anyway.

    Indeed. What's more the amendment to attach a second referendum is also dead in the water.
    Explains why Corbyn was do bullish about it, he knew bercow would save him
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Herdson, quite. PR is the work of Satan.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    I actually thought the biggest news of today was BA's new business class seats... or in TSE's the new ipad or in SeanT's case the porn filtering stuff....
  • Alasdair said:

    Does this matter?

    MV3 was going to fail anyway.

    It matters in so far as there is no deal in place and we leave in 11 days, unless TM obtains an extension later this week, with no deal at which point the blame will fall on Bercow
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    The Bercow announcement has shifted the Betfair market and is still doing so (though I think there's still value there). Current buy/sell odds of:

    March 29 and before: 3.3 / 4.3
    March 30 and after: 1.32. / 1.47
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak
    23m23 minutes ago
    More
    One govt minister tells me Bercow is ‘breaking the constitution’ by stopping them putting forward another vote on the deal
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    TOPPING said:

    I think "Bercow" might soon become a verb.

    I'm not sure if it'll be defined by what he's done to Brexit, or by what gets done to him.

    It's a stupid rule but it is there in black and white so he has a duty to enforce it.

    The "if only I'd known" group will now reflect on what their least worst option is. I can't for the life of me think what it is, that said.

    But here is my prediction - May will come on to our screens, say nothing has changed and that work is ongoing to arrive at an agreement with the EU that will a) satisfy the ERG and DUP; and b) fulfil Bercow's requirement for the deal substantially to have changed.
    I think you are right to say he has to enforce it. The problem is that he has chosen not to enforce it on other occasions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Revoke

    General Election

    New Speaker

    Referendum

    She gets a shot at keeping her job if she jumps to 4).

    What are the ERG going to do? What can they do? VONC the government? Perhaps so but then we get GE anyway.

    What is the procedure for a second referendum?
    I think we do need a GE. This House of Commons can agree nothing.
    What was that earlier about Jezza intimating he would vote Leave in a 2nd referendum? If so there will be a lot of political orphans come polling day.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Laura Kuenssberg

    Verified account

    @bbclaurak
    Follow Follow @bbclaurak
    More Laura Kuenssberg Retweeted BBC Politics
    This might sound a bit boring but it's massive - minister tells me he's now made this a 'constitutional crisis' - as the law stands we are leaving the EU in ten days - Speaker has just said the PM cant have another go at getting her deal through
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    On a far more important note, Sam Smith has said he is neither man nor woman. This is in spite of his beard and hairy chest certainly giving him the appearance of one of the two "traditional" gender identities. Still if he wants to be called "Loretta", then we will fight the oppressors for his right....

    Who is Sam Smith?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    We all really ought to have seen this coming. Plenty of people raised it as a possibility. The convention was always there.
    Everyone simply psychologically shrugged it off.
    As if we wanted to pretend it wasn't there.
    There is not a majority for leaving the EU in Parliament.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Pulpstar said:

    The Kyle Amendment (Pass MV subject to a referendum), as others have noted downthread, is DEAD too now.

    It isn't because isn't substantially different to the TIG amendment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If we do somehow finish up going out with No Deal I can see Bercow being thrown to the wolves by Parliament the very next day in the same way Speaker Martin was (rather unfairly) thrown to the wolves over all those dodgy expenses fiddlers... ;)

    Martin should never have been there in the first place, he was a roaster of the top order, filled his pockets to the brim and did zilch for his constituents.
    Indeed. But it was still unfair the way a Parliament of expenses fiddlers threw him out to try and save their own skins.

    I think Speaker B is heading for a very similar end.
    GIN , he will go out a hero
  • rawzerrawzer Posts: 189

    Alasdair said:

    Does this matter?

    MV3 was going to fail anyway.

    It matters in so far as there is no deal in place and we leave in 11 days, unless TM obtains an extension later this week, with no deal at which point the blame will fall on Bercow
    Folks at Spectator seemed to think there was a plan already if MV3 failed for MV4 at the point May came back from EU summit with "its this or a 2 year delay - fancy another go"
This discussion has been closed.