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SystemSystem Posts: 12,682
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From Marf a special cartoon for Gold Cup day

Great to see Marf once again on the site. The odds were all accurate when Marf did the cartoon.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 31,297
    First unlike every horse I backed so far today.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    1/8 on a 2nd referendum. I wish! I think that's one horse that's unbackable at the odds.

    If Steve Barclay is wavering over an extension, maybe Theresa May can save several problems in one go by making Chris Grayling Brexit Secretary. Cometh the hour, cometh the man?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Perhaps we might get better results if we put jockeys on the back of the MPs, forced them to jump over fences for a couple of miles and encouraged excessive use of the whip.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,144
    tpfkar said:

    1/8 on a 2nd referendum. I wish! I think that's one horse that's unbackable at the odds.

    If Steve Barclay is wavering over an extension, maybe Theresa May can save several problems in one go by making Chris Grayling Brexit Secretary. Cometh the hour, cometh the man?

    I'm not convinced that Barclay isn't as useless as Grayling, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,144
    Another straw in the wind for a challenge to Trump:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/15/jeb-bush-trump-2020-1223047
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,538
    edited March 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Perhaps we might get better results if we put jockeys on the back of the MPs, forced them to jump over fences for a couple of miles and encouraged excessive use of the whip.

    I fear that more than one would hope would really enjoy that......
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,304
    Afternoon all :)

    I was in Westminster this morning and walked through Parliament Square and up Whitehall to Trafalgar Square. A few hundred young people protesting - noisy but good natured and also up at Nelson's Column.

    Two ironies - a number of them were in McDonald's enjoying lunch and there were a few parents and guardians with some of them. More girls than boys to this observer. One or two slogans which would leave the PbTories and their associates apoplectic.

    Interesting to see a positive message from Michael Gove and a more negative one from Damian Hinds. I'm no fan of Gove but on this at any rate he is listening and it will be interesting to see, if he becomes Conservative leader, whether the Green Agenda will become part of the Tory agenda.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Steve Barclay seems to be threatening to resign if opposition parties and Tory rebels again fail to support the government. A curious position, but I suppose no odder than DD resigning because of the then Labour government's policy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541

    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Steve Barclay seems to be threatening to resign if opposition parties and Tory rebels again fail to support the government. A curious position, but I suppose no odder than DD resigning because of the then Labour government's policy.

    Maybe he could swap with David Davis, who now seems to be fully back on board Mrs May's Brexit Bus?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I was in Westminster this morning and walked through Parliament Square and up Whitehall to Trafalgar Square. A few hundred young people protesting - noisy but good natured and also up at Nelson's Column.

    Two ironies - a number of them were in McDonald's enjoying lunch and there were a few parents and guardians with some of them. More girls than boys to this observer. One or two slogans which would leave the PbTories and their associates apoplectic.

    Interesting to see a positive message from Michael Gove and a more negative one from Damian Hinds. I'm no fan of Gove but on this at any rate he is listening and it will be interesting to see, if he becomes Conservative leader, whether the Green Agenda will become part of the Tory agenda.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1106542586930647041

    One wag BTL on Guido pointed out the tautology in the slogan.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    McVey: People will have to hold their nose and vote for May's deal if they want Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1106575200739561478
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Steve Barclay seems to be threatening to resign if opposition parties and Tory rebels again fail to support the government. A curious position, but I suppose no odder than DD resigning because of the then Labour government's policy.

    Have the whips asked how many extra votes they could secure for MV3 if Mrs May agreed to stand down by 1st May ?

    Suspect the number is in double figures.

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I was in Westminster this morning and walked through Parliament Square and up Whitehall to Trafalgar Square. A few hundred young people protesting - noisy but good natured and also up at Nelson's Column.

    Two ironies - a number of them were in McDonald's enjoying lunch and there were a few parents and guardians with some of them. More girls than boys to this observer. One or two slogans which would leave the PbTories and their associates apoplectic.

    Interesting to see a positive message from Michael Gove and a more negative one from Damian Hinds. I'm no fan of Gove but on this at any rate he is listening and it will be interesting to see, if he becomes Conservative leader, whether the Green Agenda will become part of the Tory agenda.

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1106542586930647041

    One wag BTL on Guido pointed out the tautology in the slogan.
    Possibly the most insightful comment ever posted there. And almost certainly the first four-syllable word.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Steve Barclay seems to be threatening to resign if opposition parties and Tory rebels again fail to support the government. A curious position, but I suppose no odder than DD resigning because of the then Labour government's policy.

    Maybe he could swap with David Davis, who now seems to be fully back on board Mrs May's Brexit Bus?
    My uncle who is a diehard Brexiteer of the Mark Francois mode was posting on FB this morning quotes from Davis against the Deal and Delay - twas great fun to point out to him how hie hero voted yesterday.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    williamglenn said:

    McVey: People will have to hold their nose and vote for May's deal if they want Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1106575200739561478

    Leadership contenders at the fierce end of the Brexit spectrum have a difficult calculation to make. Is it best to be one of the last holdouts, to be able to appeal to members as the pure candidate? Or does that scupper your chances of making the last two among MPs?

    Imagine the contortions Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab must now be going through.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    If the LibDems and Tiggers had an "Alliance", then I think Wollastan would probably end up winning.

    The irony therefore being that Totnes - which was pretty much the only seat in Devon and Cornwall the LibDems didn't have at their peak - would be their only seat in the West Country.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    McVey: People will have to hold their nose and vote for May's deal if they want Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1106575200739561478

    Leadership contenders at the fierce end of the Brexit spectrum have a difficult calculation to make. Is it best to be one of the last holdouts, to be able to appeal to members as the pure candidate? Or does that scupper your chances of making the last two among MPs?

    Imagine the contortions Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab must now be going through.
    Her message contradicts Stephen Barclay who is saying they can leave with no deal on March 29th.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Here's an odd thought. At the moment our daylight saving dates are aligned to the EU - namely clocks go forward on the last weekend in March and back on the last weekend in October. Will we no longer be required to observe these standard dates when we leave? Do we need to leave the single market (EEA) or just the EU to achieve this?

    Of course there may be no political will to make any changes even after leaving but for example Scotland because of their northerly latitude might seek to operate a different timezone to England. Or we might prefer to align DST to the USA where clocks change in the second week of March.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    edited March 2019
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
    How many MPs did Veritas have at its peak?*

    * Obviously, the TIGgers only have a chance if they merge/ally/whatever with the LibDems and therefore detoxify them to some extent
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,904
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Perhaps we might get better results if we put jockeys on the back of the MPs, forced them to jump over fences for a couple of miles and encouraged excessive use of the whip.

    Haven’t the last few weeks shown that the whip is now somewhat ineffective at achieving the desired result?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
    Battersea is such a close Conservative/Labour contest that I agree, they wouldn't feature (there is a TIG-type party, Renew, which came nowhere there in local elections).
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    If the LibDems and Tiggers had an "Alliance", then I think Wollastan would probably end up winning.

    The irony therefore being that Totnes - which was pretty much the only seat in Devon and Cornwall the LibDems didn't have at their peak - would be their only seat in the West Country.
    It would be a tight contest. Wollaston would poll very well in Totnes town and the Dart Valley up to Buckfastleigh, whereas the Conservatives would hold the coastal areas.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1106574867414028288
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
    How many MPs did Veritas have at its peak?*

    * Obviously, the TIGgers only have a chance if they merge/ally/whatever with the LibDems and therefore detoxify them to some extent
    None elected - neither do the TIG MPs. Defections do not count until confirmed by the voters - as happened to the two UKIP defectors in 2014.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Norm said:

    Here's an odd thought. At the moment our daylight saving dates are aligned to the EU - namely clocks go forward on the last weekend in March and back on the last weekend in October. Will we no longer be required to observe these standard dates when we leave? Do we need to leave the single market (EEA) or just the EU to achieve this?

    Of course there may be no political will to make any changes even after leaving but for example Scotland because of their northerly latitude might seek to operate a different timezone to England. Or we might prefer to align DST to the USA where clocks change in the second week of March.

    Didn't the rest of Europe change their daylight saving times to align with the UK?

    (It was one of those curious things that never gets mentioned...)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Norm said:

    Here's an odd thought. At the moment our daylight saving dates are aligned to the EU - namely clocks go forward on the last weekend in March and back on the last weekend in October. Will we no longer be required to observe these standard dates when we leave? Do we need to leave the single market (EEA) or just the EU to achieve this?

    Of course there may be no political will to make any changes even after leaving but for example Scotland because of their northerly latitude might seek to operate a different timezone to England. Or we might prefer to align DST to the USA where clocks change in the second week of March.

    Aren’t the EU planning on ditching daylight saving time?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,304
    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2019
    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. D, I saw some polling on that. I think it was from the EU itself, perhaps six months ago. A clear majority were in favour of ditching the change. However, the vast majority of respondents were, I think, from one country (believe it was Germany but can't be certain) which totally skewed the figures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. D, I saw some polling on that. I think it was from the EU itself, perhaps six months ago. A clear majority were in favour of ditching the change. However, the vast majority of respondents were, I think, from one country (believe it was Germany but can't be certain) which totally skewed the figures.

    I think that was a self selecting poll. Still, I thought the EU parliament was considering the issue soon (tackling the issues that really matter).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. D, oh aye, but I saw it cited by a sensible chap I follow on Twitter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,904
    edited March 2019
    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
    How many MPs did Veritas have at its peak?*

    * Obviously, the TIGgers only have a chance if they merge/ally/whatever with the LibDems and therefore detoxify them to some extent
    I suspect the future prospects of TIG and the LDs are closely bound-up with Brexit:

    eg:

    Pain-free deal-based exit: TIG dies, LDs continue with a dozen or two MPs. Everyone moves on; big two (just about) prove they still care about broad churches; middle continues to be squeezed.

    Painful crash-out: big splits from the big two, centrist MPs and voters need a new home.

    Lengthy Ref2 campaign: the voice for remain; success dependent on how unique a selling point that is.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
    I agree. My MP is one of the defectors to the TIGs - the number of councillors who have followed suit is ... er 0 and the number of party members (to my knowledge) can be counted on the fingers of one hand. I see no sign of them developing a presence at constituency level on the scale of the SDP.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    Presumably there are also a lot of Jewish 'snowflakes' in the Labour Party.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,465
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Frankly I believe that article to be a load of tosh. The idea that TIG would come close to winning seats such as Battersea or any other seat where they lack incumbency is fanciful. In reality, their candidates would struggle to save their deposits - given that 5% is much more likely nationally than 18%. Commentators have yet to wake up to the fact that we are are likely to be looking at a Kilroy-Silk Veritas scenario - rather than a 1981 SDP type surge.
    But it might do just enough to save us from a Corbyn government, and enable the current strong, stable, united, clearly focussed, consistent and pragmatic government, firmly in the John Major tradition, to carry on its helpful work of unifying the nation.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    And should teachers be encouraging foul mouthed misogynistic chants?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2019
    felix said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    Presumably there are also a lot of Jewish 'snowflakes' in the Labour Party.
    There are, but they are gradually driving them out, so it won't be a problem for long.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1106590905895698432
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,304
    edited March 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    I've seen and heard the clip picked up by Guido which might make you think it was widespread - on the clip there was one girl and then two or three others following her. None of the other children I saw or heard were chanting anything abusive. Were there provocateurs in the crowd encouraging others? That's a different question.

    The numbers were infinitesimally small - a few hundred at most. By most measures it was pathetic. As to whether there were debates and discussions at schools about climate change to coincide with this, I can't say. I do think it's a topic of genuine concern and of particular interest to those who will follow us in the stewardship of our planet.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    stodge said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    I've seen and heard the clip picked up by Guido which might make you think it was widespread - on the clip there was one girl and then two or three others following her. None of the other children I saw or heard were chanting anything abusive. Were there provocateurs in the crowd encouraging others? That's a different question. Guido has an agenda.

    The numbers were infinitesimally small - a few hundred at most. By most measures it was pathetic. As to whether there were debates and discussions at schools about climate change to coincide with this, I can't say. I do think it's a topic of genuine concern and of particular interest to those who will follow us in the stewardship of our planet.
    Climate concerns absolutely should be a legitimate concern.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    stodge said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    I've seen and heard the clip picked up by Guido which might make you think it was widespread - on the clip there was one girl and then two or three others following her. None of the other children I saw or heard were chanting anything abusive. Were there provocateurs in the crowd encouraging others? That's a different question. Guido has an agenda.

    The numbers were infinitesimally small - a few hundred at most. By most measures it was pathetic. As to whether there were debates and discussions at schools about climate change to coincide with this, I can't say. I do think it's a topic of genuine concern and of particular interest to those who will follow us in the stewardship of our planet.
    Yet you said it 'made your afternoon'. Irrespective of the numbers, you approved of the foul-mouthed misogynistic rant. Perhaps you would have approved even more if the numbers had been higher?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
    The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,103
    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
    The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
    Was that not Richard's point?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Nabavi, perhaps. But I was less than delighted last year when the power here was interrupted (briefly) several times.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,904
    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    Good point, and there’s an interesting conversation to be had about where to draw the line.

    Some of the online abuse directed at politicians is pretty horrible, and direct threats are rightly passed to authorities. I’m also sure that a lot of the abuse directed at Ms Abbott is as much innumerate-ist as racist or sexist, certainly from Conservatives anyway.

    I’d hold abuse at a march to a slightly different standard, as it’s much easier for the police to understand what’s happening and the motives of those delivering the abuse. The chants aimed at the PM may be considered a bit sexist, but she will have been called a lot worse over the years. As an extreme example, it’s probably okay to march with an effigy of a hanging politician, but not okay to Tweet a picture of the same hanging effigy to the politician without context.

    Politicians should be able to accept that low-level abuse and protest comes with the job, but not to the point of being in genuine fear of harm. Protesting outside someone’s house for example, is not okay.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,872
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,220
    Sky

    DUP Westminster leader Nigel Dodds says the party has had a constructive dialogue with the cabinet ministers over Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal and talks will continue over the weekend

    Are we to expect 'white smoke' over no 10 by Tuesday

    Interesting Ester McVey coming round to voting for the deal
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
    The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
    Was that not Richard's point?
    Indeed. And I agree with him.

    Of course, free speech means that people can shout such abuse. Or indeed any abuse they want. But if we don't want our society to be coarsened by endlessly revolting misogynistic, sexist, racist, anti-islamic, anti-semitic etc abuse then we should try and educate our children not to indulge in it and call out adults when they do it.

    Asking our politicians to do something about climate change is a good thing. That is not aided by calling a female leader a f***ing wh***. Some of those girls doing it might reflect on why, if and when they find the same abuse hurled at them for no apparent reason - on social media, face to face etc - such stuff happens and why those doing it might think it acceptable.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    LOL. Good luck with that. With the exception of the stopped clock scenario CO2 emissions have never been 'zero net' over a time span of more than a century or so (if that) since the beginning of the Proterozoic.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,061
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    Re your last sentence, five minutes on any internet comment section indicates that, sadly, that boat has sailed years ago. There are vile comments everywhere and no side of the political spectrum is any position to try to claim the moral high ground.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    OllyT said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    Re your last sentence, five minutes on any internet comment section indicates that, sadly, that boat has sailed years ago. There are vile comments everywhere and no side of the political spectrum is any position to try to claim the moral high ground.
    It isn't a question of claiming moral high ground. It's about condemning such vileness whoever is the perpetrator or the target.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,538
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I think screaming abuse about senior politicians is covered by freedom of speech, and part of a long tradition of protesting those in charge. They’re not inciting violence or causing damage so let them have their protest, they’ll probably grow up in the end.

    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    I am more concerned that they are skiving off school !!!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    That is unattainable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Cyclefree said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
    The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
    Was that not Richard's point?
    Indeed. And I agree with him.

    Of course, free speech means that people can shout such abuse. Or indeed any abuse they want. But if we don't want our society to be coarsened by endlessly revolting misogynistic, sexist, racist, anti-islamic, anti-semitic etc abuse then we should try and educate our children not to indulge in it and call out adults when they do it.

    Asking our politicians to do something about climate change is a good thing. That is not aided by calling a female leader a f***ing wh***. Some of those girls doing it might reflect on why, if and when they find the same abuse hurled at them for no apparent reason - on social media, face to face etc - such stuff happens and why those doing it might think it acceptable.
    I'd be very upset, and cross, if I heard my grandchildren calling anyone a f***ing anything. Wh*re possibly if it was justified.
    And I'd remonstrate with my sons.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
    That number looks rather too low to me and my current guess it that there will be a minimum of 30 refusniks for MV3, should it take place.

    Boris Johnson has got himself into a bit of a jam. How sad.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Sean_F said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    That is unattainable.
    Didn't we have a period in the fifth or sixth century CE when the Northern Hemisphere was very dark and cold, and thousands died? Not sure what happened in mid to North Asia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,884
    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Labour might fancy their chances in Totnes if the Tories + TIGs + LibDems all fight. Labour went up from 12.7% in 2015 to 26.8% and second in 2017. They won't be volunteering to give up votes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    King Cole, CE is the work of Satan.

    We did have a drastically cold period in the latter half of the 17th century, during which the Thames repeatedly froze, and there were warmer periods during the reigns of Caligula/Claudius, and Henry VIII.

    The climate's always changed over time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    1890?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
    That number looks rather too low to me and my current guess it that there will be a minimum of 30 refusniks for MV3, should it take place.

    Boris Johnson has got himself into a bit of a jam. How sad.
    Boris would vote for it if it came with a Mayexit clause.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    That is unattainable.
    Didn't we have a period in the fifth or sixth century CE when the Northern Hemisphere was very dark and cold, and thousands died? Not sure what happened in mid to North Asia.
    There was a huge plague across Europe and the Eastern Empire c.550. Britain in the 6th century must have been like a Mad Max film.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,884
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
    The EU can put those 17 absolutists on the Euro coinage, as an act of gratitude.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sean_F said:


    FPT, I expect that Wollaston and Allen would pick up Labour tactical votes, and Umunna, Shuker, and Streeting would pick up Conservative tactical votes, which would enhance their chances.

    I don't think there would be any tactical voting for Ryan, Smith, or Soubry, as both Conservatives and Labour would fancy their chances in these seats.

    Labour might fancy their chances in Totnes if the Tories + TIGs + LibDems all fight. Labour went up from 12.7% in 2015 to 26.8% and second in 2017. They won't be volunteering to give up votes.
    I expect the Lib Dems and Greens would stand down for Sarah Wollaston, which would give her a solid base of support.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    McVey: People will have to hold their nose and vote for May's deal if they want Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1106575200739561478

    Leadership contenders at the fierce end of the Brexit spectrum have a difficult calculation to make. Is it best to be one of the last holdouts, to be able to appeal to members as the pure candidate? Or does that scupper your chances of making the last two among MPs?

    Imagine the contortions Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab must now be going through.
    but surely both those gentlemen only vote on such matters in the best interests of the country?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    williamglenn said:

    McVey: People will have to hold their nose and vote for May's deal if they want Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1106575200739561478

    Leadership contenders at the fierce end of the Brexit spectrum have a difficult calculation to make. Is it best to be one of the last holdouts, to be able to appeal to members as the pure candidate? Or does that scupper your chances of making the last two among MPs?

    Imagine the contortions Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab must now be going through.
    but surely both those gentlemen only vote on such matters in the best interests of the country?
    You would hope so. And don't call me Shirley.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,103
    edited March 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    1890?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/uk-carbon-emissions-fall-1894-first-petrol-powered-car-patent-greenhouse-gases-environment-climate-a7614066.html

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-carbon-emissions-in-2017-fell-to-levels-last-seen-in-1890
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,397
    edited March 2019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    King Cole, CE is the work of Satan.

    Surely it's the misattributed work of Jesus Christ...
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    TGOHF said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
    That number looks rather too low to me and my current guess it that there will be a minimum of 30 refusniks for MV3, should it take place.

    Boris Johnson has got himself into a bit of a jam. How sad.
    Boris would vote for it if it came with a Mayexit clause.
    I reckon that if they found a way of granting 5 additional first round votes in the next Tory leadership contest for anyone who came on board for MV3, there would be a few takers....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,220
    OldKingCole said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    On other matters, the ERG are now between the rock and the hard place - the question for them is whether they back the WA or whether they gamble on the EU playing hardball with a request for an extension. Last night's votes showed a narrow majority within the Parliamentary party not wishing to take No Deal off the table in terms of the leaving being the important thing.

    What would be the political consequence for failing to deliver on leaving on 29/3? What length of extension would May accept - 3 months, 6 months and what happens if the EU offers a minimum of say 2 years?

    Calling women whores is okay now?
    I’m sure parents will have legitimate concerns if there were teachers involved though.
    Presumably all those who point to the abuse levelled at other female politicians (Diane Abbott, for instance) will take the same relaxed view?
    I cant remember much abuse of Abbott being misogynistic abuse leveled by children who are meant to be at school orchestrated by teachers.
    The adults who level such abuse were children once. If we don’t want such abuse to happen then we should not turn a blind eye to children doing it.
    Was that not Richard's point?
    Indeed. And I agree with him.

    Of course, free speech means that people can shout such abuse. Or indeed any abuse they want. But if we don't want our society to be coarsened by endlessly revolting misogynistic, sexist, racist, anti-islamic, anti-semitic etc abuse then we should try and educate our children not to indulge in it and call out adults when they do it.

    Asking our politicians to do something about climate change is a good thing. That is not aided by calling a female leader a f***ing wh***. Some of those girls doing it might reflect on why, if and when they find the same abuse hurled at them for no apparent reason - on social media, face to face etc - such stuff happens and why those doing it might think it acceptable.
    I'd be very upset, and cross, if I heard my grandchildren calling anyone a f***ing anything. Wh*re possibly if it was justified.
    And I'd remonstrate with my sons.
    Absolutely
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,956
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1106598045217636352
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    stodge said:



    Looking at snowflake Guido getting all upset because some people had the temerity to be nasty to a Conservative Prime Minister. The cynic in me says if you're in politics you know you're in trouble when they stop insulting you. Made my afternoon.

    Do you really think it is OK for schoolchildren to bunk off school on the pretext of concerns about climate change, but then to indulge in chanting a highly offensive, foul-mouthed, personalised, extremely misogynistic slogan? Is that really the type of society you want?
    Two separate issues. Kids boycotting school for a day to express concern about the future of the planet seems to me well within the acceptable range of civil disobedience. Screaming misogynistic abuse does not. A good school reaction would be to have a follow-up discussion on how to influence public decisions, and what sort of behaviour might be counter-productive.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tpfkar said:

    TGOHF said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
    That number looks rather too low to me and my current guess it that there will be a minimum of 30 refusniks for MV3, should it take place.

    Boris Johnson has got himself into a bit of a jam. How sad.
    Boris would vote for it if it came with a Mayexit clause.
    I reckon that if they found a way of granting 5 additional first round votes in the next Tory leadership contest for anyone who came on board for MV3, there would be a few takers....
    That would mean Phil Hammond would score 6 votes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,304
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Yet you said it 'made your afternoon'. Irrespective of the numbers, you approved of the foul-mouthed misogynistic rant. Perhaps you would have approved even more if the numbers had been higher?

    No, you're not getting away with this misrepresentation. What "made my afternoon" was not the chanting itself but the way first Guido and then you got sanctimonious and high-handed about it. Watching the Right get itself in a stew over the smallest jibe is part of the fun of politics.

    For the record, the personal abuse against Theresa May was unacceptable though I would again contend a 7-second clip on Guido in no way represented what was as far as I could tell having been in Parliament Square and walked up to Trafalgar Square a small but peaceful and good-natured protest.

    I would concede there was a provocateur or two in the crowd but I've been on this site for the thick end of 15 years and have plenty come and go. There were adults with some of the children - were they teachers, parents or guardians? I had no way of knowing but to allege teachers were manipulating the students into various courses of actions would seem a serious allegation were it hypothetically to be made anywhere.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Incidentally, did we pick up this article about changes in the way Labour candidates are selected for the London assembly?

    http://www.cityam.com/274704/city-hall-risk-momentum-takeover-after-labour-changes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,884
    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    TGOHF said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    An (anonymous) Tory MP was quoted yesterday as thinking there were about 17 absolutists who wouldn't change their minds under any circumstances. That sounds about right to me as the best possible scenario for the government. Of course they might not get the number down even that far.
    That number looks rather too low to me and my current guess it that there will be a minimum of 30 refusniks for MV3, should it take place.

    Boris Johnson has got himself into a bit of a jam. How sad.
    Boris would vote for it if it came with a Mayexit clause.
    I reckon that if they found a way of granting 5 additional first round votes in the next Tory leadership contest for anyone who came on board for MV3, there would be a few takers....
    That would mean Phil Hammond would score 6 votes.
    Tied with Amber Rudd.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,326
    Catching up on the shenanigans from last night, I have to say that all the respect I had for Stephen Barclay (which was considerable) has gone. Making the key note speech in favour of an extension and then voting against it. That is beyond dishonest. That is taking the piss.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    Short of advanced civilisation being wiped out by a nuclear war, that is a fantasy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,465
    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

    Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

    I'm sceptical that the DUP will come on board. I don't see what's in it for them. But if they do come on board, Theresa May will need 314+10+5 IND -Y Tory Dissidents + (Y-17) Lab, I think.

    So, for example, if there are 40 Tory Dissidents, there will need to be 23 Labour assistants.

    If there really are only 30 Labour MPs who might conceivably assist, Theresa May still looks well odds against to me winning any third meaningful vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,144
    NorthofStoke said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    Short of advanced civilisation being wiped out by a nuclear war, that is a fantasy.
    Why ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2019
    stodge said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Yet you said it 'made your afternoon'. Irrespective of the numbers, you approved of the foul-mouthed misogynistic rant. Perhaps you would have approved even more if the numbers had been higher?

    No, you're not getting away with this misrepresentation. What "made my afternoon" was not the chanting itself but the way first Guido and then you got sanctimonious and high-handed about it. Watching the Right get itself in a stew over the smallest jibe is part of the fun of politics.

    For the record, the personal abuse against Theresa May was unacceptable though I would again contend a 7-second clip on Guido in no way represented what was as far as I could tell having been in Parliament Square and walked up to Trafalgar Square a small but peaceful and good-natured protest.

    I would concede there was a provocateur or two in the crowd but I've been on this site for the thick end of 15 years and have plenty come and go. There were adults with some of the children - were they teachers, parents or guardians? I had no way of knowing but to allege teachers were manipulating the students into various courses of actions would seem a serious allegation were it hypothetically to be made anywhere.
    Actually no-one here at all 'got sanctimonious and high-handed' about the issue. There wasn't a single comment about it (other than the tautology!) before yours. My post was a response to yours.

    You are a hypocrite, Sir. Sorry, to be so blunt, but there's no getting away from the fact that you praised a foul-mouthed misogynistic chant, no doubt because the target was a Tory woman.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,144
    kinabalu said:

    Catching up on the shenanigans from last night, I have to say that all the respect I had for Stephen Barclay (which was considerable) has gone. Making the key note speech in favour of an extension and then voting against it. That is beyond dishonest. That is taking the piss.

    He always struck me as ineffectual. Now qualified by being clueless, as well.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    kinabalu said:

    Catching up on the shenanigans from last night, I have to say that all the respect I had for Stephen Barclay (which was considerable) has gone. Making the key note speech in favour of an extension and then voting against it. That is beyond dishonest. That is taking the piss.

    Have you seen his explanation?

    https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1106560180819496962?s=21
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    algarkirk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

    Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?



    I think most of them don't actually want to Brexit at all - they would much rather keep themselves pure and spend the rest of their lives ranting about betrayal and treachery rather than have to explain away their role in the disastrous clusterf*ck that Brexit has become. So there's really nothing May can do to get them on board.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    algarkirk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

    Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?



    Yes of course:
    No EU payments (unless they are paying us to trade with them)
    No freedom of movement
    Full trade access to goods and services
    No EU access to our fishing grounds
    We have full access to theirs
    European Arrest Warrant to extradite EU citizens from here but not Brits from abroad.
    Free access to European Agencies we like, with us able to pick and choose the rules we will follow.
    Northern Irish border to be ignored under all circumstances

    All called Canada Unicorn Plus
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,884
    anothernick said:

    algarkirk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

    Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?



    I think most of them don't actually want to Brexit at all - they would much rather keep themselves pure and spend the rest of their lives ranting about betrayal and treachery rather than have to explain away their role in the disastrous clusterf*ck that Brexit has become. So there's really nothing May can do to get them on board.
    Of course they want to Brexit. But they don't want to be held responsible for a never-ending transition. That they have spent £39 billion to achieve. But in that situation, I suspect there will be plenty of blame to go round....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Sean_F said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sean_F said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the substance of today's climate change protests, the UK's emmissions are back to levels last seen in 1890 !

    Yes, it's not the UK which people should be complaining about. Our switch from coal to renewables since 2010 has been absolutely astonishing - far different from what anyone had expected. The offshore wind industry in particular has been a great success - this is one of the things the Cameron governments got right (after a rather stuttering start, admittedly). Of course technological advances have also played their part, and again have been faster than expected.
    A lot of Green activists would like us to go back to the emission levels of 1090.
    And more. The world as a whole needs to be looking at reducing to zero net CO2 emissions within the next 50 years or so.
    That is unattainable.
    Didn't we have a period in the fifth or sixth century CE when the Northern Hemisphere was very dark and cold, and thousands died? Not sure what happened in mid to North Asia.
    There was a huge plague across Europe and the Eastern Empire c.550. Britain in the 6th century must have been like a Mad Max film.
    Google is one's friend. I had a hunt and found an article by a Dr Tim Newfield, from Princeton, https://www.historicalclimatology.com/blog/something-cooled-the-world-in-the-sixth-century-what-was-it.
    Doesn't come to a definite answer, but the period 500-600 CE (AD, Mr D) must have been a really fun time to be about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,956
    Beto was member of early computer hacking community says Reuters:

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-politics-beto-orourke/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,541
    tpfkar said:

    algarkirk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I've been doing a bit of research and what's interesting is just how many of the Conservative hardline Leavers have been pretty quiet over the last few days. I've gone through more than half and I'd say ten can be counted on to vote against, half a dozen or so look likely to vote against, three look like they're changing sides and the rest are keeping their powder dry.

    Make of that what you will.

    Assuming the DUP come on board. How many Labour votes do you think May will need?

    Of the irreconcilables from the ERG is it known if there is any sort of Brexit they would vote for apart from No Deal? And if so what its real shape would be?



    Yes of course:
    No EU payments (unless they are paying us to trade with them)
    No freedom of movement
    Full trade access to goods and services
    No EU access to our fishing grounds
    We have full access to theirs
    European Arrest Warrant to extradite EU citizens from here but not Brits from abroad.
    Free access to European Agencies we like, with us able to pick and choose the rules we will follow.
    Northern Irish border to be ignored under all circumstances

    All called Canada Unicorn Plus
    Some of them think that that was on offer, but for some reason, it was blocked by Theresa May and Olly Robins.
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