politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit
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For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.Scott_P said:0 -
Westminster generally communicates via WhatsApp.matt said:
So when he hears he's probably reading.0 -
Nor can I.RobD said:Is Robert around? I can't access comments through the main site.
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A lot happening today - have we done this VI poll?
https://twitter.com/kantarpublic/status/1105413105897652224?s=210 -
Still a better plan than the backstop.Scott_P said:0 -
Moral collapse by one leading Brexit commentator:
https://twitter.com/olivernorgrove/status/1105585971221942280?s=210 -
CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.0 -
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.0 -
Disagree, I can totally see how she goes on and on. She can only be sacked by the MPs, the MPs have to give the final decision to the members, and the members are bonkers. Nothing has changed: TMay or the country burns.The CNN thing said:
And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.
Also we know how to get from here to either Deal or Remain, and none of it requires TMay to take the initiative or in any way stick her neck out.0 -
But it won't be. Even now how many MPs are advocating that? They need a referendum to justify it to themselves, so it is not their responsibility.Recidivist said:
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.0 -
Also I take issue with "the political fallout will be savage". I think the political fallout will just be glad when the whole fucking thing goes away. I mean, there will be some angry people, but they've always been angry.0
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But there are only two options left. The deal is rejected. It is no deal or remain. And we can't do no deal.kle4 said:
But it won't be. Even now how many MPs are advocating that? They need a referendum to justify it to themselves, so it is not their responsibility.Recidivist said:
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.0 -
The perception will be savage fallout. The media seems obsessed with Twitter as a barometer of the state of the country when perhaps Twitter is best seen as a barometer of the sort of jerks, virgins and class warriors who infest Twitter.edmundintokyo said:Also I take issue with "the political fallout will be savage". I think the political fallout will just be glad when the whole fucking thing goes away. I mean, there will be some angry people, but they've always been angry.
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They will be collapsing like a badly judged soufflé soon.Gardenwalker said:Moral collapse by one leading Brexit commentator:
https://twitter.com/olivernorgrove/status/1105585971221942280?s=210 -
No, the deal can be unrejected, either by parliament or by a binding referendum. And there are three different ways to remain: Straight-out revoke, referendum and infinite extensions.Recidivist said:
But there are only two options left. The deal is rejected. It is no deal or remain. And we can't do no deal.0 -
Schrodinger's Brexit it is.edmundintokyo said:
No, there the deal can be unrejected, either by parliament or by a binding referendum. And there are three different ways to remain: Straight-out revoke, referendum and infinite extensions.Recidivist said:
But there are only two options left. The deal is rejected. It is no deal or remain. And we can't do no deal.0 -
Can May survive the night0
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I vote yesChris_A said:Can May survive the night
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It's called an Exhaustive Ballot, actually. Calling it "quasi-AV" is like calling tonight's vote a "quasi-win" for TMay!TheScreamingEagles said:
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Do one of your graphs. You know you want to.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's called an Exhaustive Ballot, actually. Calling it "quasi-AV" is like calling tonight's vote a "quasi-win" for TMay!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Hey, it's me_Anazina_ said:
Only on PB could a poster admit that he spent tons on hundreds of hookers, only to be picked up on his inaccurately citing the phylum of his favourite type of seafood.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Oysters are bivalve molluscs, NOT crustacea!SeanT said:
Mmm maybe. I used to spend a ton on hookers. Hundreds of them.Theuniondivvie said:
Would immoral spendings be a teeny bit fair?SeanT said:
Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etcIanB2 said:
In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.kinabalu said:
Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊_Anazina_ said:I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.
Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
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Also a poll reported by Anthony Wells, from BMG, with the Conservatives ahead by 5%.NeilVW said:A lot happening today - have we done this VI poll?
https://twitter.com/kantarpublic/status/1105413105897652224?s=210 -
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.0 -
Corbyn gets a GE this way too lolDrutt said:
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.0 -
If my Twitter feed is anything to go by, which it probably isn't, Labour activists think a general election is imminent.
I hope they are wrong.0 -
It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.0
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I don't think that a general election would assist Labour.Recidivist said:If my Twitter feed is anything to go by, which it probably isn't, Labour activists think a general election is imminent.
I hope they are wrong.0 -
It wouldn't help the country much either.Sean_F said:
I don't think that a general election would assist Labour.Recidivist said:If my Twitter feed is anything to go by, which it probably isn't, Labour activists think a general election is imminent.
I hope they are wrong.0 -
Revoke. Is that the only option? A bit of a dogs dinner of a thread header to be honest. You start by saying all supporters of May’s deal, all opponents of no deal brexit, all second vote supporters, all remainiacs currently dead in the eye of the law. UK going to leave EU without deal on 29th March. EU saying no deal now likely. Even a huge take it off the table vote against a no deal in the commons tomorrow isn’t primary legislation doesn’t stop it, or does itkle4 said:
But it won't be. Even now how many MPs are advocating that? They need a referendum to justify it to themselves, so it is not their responsibility.Recidivist said:
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.
I genuinely don’t know how no deal is stopped. Surely now we need a cool headed header walking us through it0 -
There would still have been a government, and a delay/revocation of A50 is surely a prerogative power?Drutt said:
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.0 -
There's still a PM until there's a new PM, she'd ask for an extension.Drutt said:
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.0 -
I don't think the HoC will ever get to a stage where there is a majority for revoke. Hence the machinations to get someone else to do it.kle4 said:
But it won't be. Even now how many MPs are advocating that? They need a referendum to justify it to themselves, so it is not their responsibility.Recidivist said:
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.0 -
Drutt said:
I don't think the HoC will ever get to a stage where there is a majority for revoke. Hence the machinations to get someone else to do it.kle4 said:
But it won't be. Even now how many MPs are advocating that? They need a referendum to justify it to themselves, so it is not their responsibility.Recidivist said:
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.
Time for another Pride's Purge.Drutt said:
I don't think the HoC will ever get to a stage where there is a majority for revoke. Hence the machinations to get someone else to do it.kle4 said:
But it won't be. Even now how many MPs are advocating that? They need a referendum to justify it to themselves, so it is not their responsibility.Recidivist said:
Article 50 has to be revoked. There is no other option.IanB2 said:CNN:
The EU now sees the UK as an unreliable negotiating partner and, short of a thumping Commons victory for one option or another, is reluctant to spend more political capital trying to bail out a UK that it can no longer predict nor depend upon. On Friday, Brexit will be 14 days away. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that two weeks from deadline day, the state of Brexit will have remained virtually static for the best part of three years. At some point, that has to change. And when it does, the fallout and consequences of this political failure will be savage. And it's very hard to envisage a scenario in which the first victim isn't May herself.0 -
*rings ECJ about the Wightman case* Nope to revocation. Could still ask for an extension but there's no real prospect of getting it in those circumstancesRobD said:
There would still have been a government, and a delay/revocation of A50 is surely a prerogative power?Drutt said:
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.0 -
Helluva windy !0
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Biggest Con meltdown ever! McDonnell moving in tomorrow!0
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Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse.0 -
I find that last minute desperate measures with the heavy tinge of panic are very convincing.viewcode said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105596959002382336
Fan fiction governance continues...
More relevantly, she won't quite and despite it all no Tories are going to back a no confidence motion brought by Labour, even now. And the DUP love having this power, even if they seem rather less keen on seeing any governmental power exercised because they've paralysed the government.viewcode said:0 -
Viewcode! You are my favourite poster. Let's hope so!0
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May will not leave office voluntarily and the other Conservatives do not have the moral fibre to evict her until Brexit is done. Whenever that is...another_richard said:
Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse. 0 -
I think it's more likely that the 75 that voted the deal down could be better aligned with the rank and file membership than those who voted for it.another_richard said:
Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse.
Deselection may happen the other way0 -
The brexit means brexit no deal better than bad deal prime minister, resolute on delivering brexit for many years, been insisting all year we are leaving 29th March, will go through lobby on Wednesday to prevent Britain leaving 29th March??? Will voters understand?
Polls have been finding large numbers of public keen on just getting on with no deal brexit, will they understand what looks a pretty straightforward U turn and betrayal? 😕0 -
TSE will Liverpool finish second or third this season? Slippy!!0
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Those 75 have likely ended Brexit - is that what Conservative members want ?asjohnstone said:
I think it's more likely that the 75 that voted the deal down could be better aligned with the rank and file membership than those who voted for it.another_richard said:
Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse.
Deselection may happen the other way0 -
Anyway, it's at times like these you have to remember there's someone worse off than you. You could be ten points behind THIS government right now, or you could have seen GDP fall from $334B to $90B in eight years, like in Venezuela.
Assuming Chris Grayling has been a minister for about the same period and has cost the country say $3BN over that time, being Venezuelan is like having seventy Graylings in the cabinet all at once. Over eight years, you'd be approaching half a kiloGrayling, which is why they are eating their pets and there's no electricity.
'Night all.0 -
Remain! 😁0
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If you want full Coke No Deal then you will go for the real thing not the Asda own brand, in any case having insulted the whole of Slovenia a few weeks ago Hunt is lucky to still be Foreign Secretary let alone considered for the top jobkle4 said:
For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed. It's all very well saying what they want aligns with what members want - I can easily believe that - but in terms of what either the EU or the House of Commons, or both, will accept (all options require one of these, since the Commons can, albeit not easily, stop no deal), is what they will get aligned with what the members want. Which of the options is least unpalatable to those same Tory members. Is it no Brexit? They had better hope so.another_richard said:
Those 75 have likely ended Brexit - is that what Conservative members want ?asjohnstone said:
I think it's more likely that the 75 that voted the deal down could be better aligned with the rank and file membership than those who voted for it.another_richard said:
Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse.
Deselection may happen the other way
But given the betrayal narratives they adore more than Brexit itself, I am sure they will be fine.0 -
The Foreign Office is probably a good place to mess up on the job and not be noticed by most of the public. Of course it makes anything other than a big triumph harder for people to notice too, but you may be insulated from everyday gaffes a bit.HYUFD said:
If you want full Coke No Deal then you will go for the real thing not the Asda own brand, in any case having insulted the whole of Slovenia a few weeks ago Hunt is lucky to still be Foreign Secretary let alone considered for the top jobkle4 said:
For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.Scott_P said:0 -
Until the ERG Remainers are cleared out Brexit is crippled.kle4 said:
Indeed. It's all very well saying what they want aligns with what members want - I can easily believe that - but in terms of what either the EU or the House of Commons, or both, will accept, is what they will get align with what the members want. Which of the options is least unpalatable to those same Tory members. Is it no Brexit? They had better hope so.another_richard said:
Those 75 have likely ended Brexit - is that what Conservative members want ?asjohnstone said:
I think it's more likely that the 75 that voted the deal down could be better aligned with the rank and file membership than those who voted for it.another_richard said:
Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse.
Deselection may happen the other way
But given the betrayal narratives they adore more than Brexit itself, I am sure they will be fine.0 -
For some reason Graham Brady now believes No Deal is the best solution.
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/11055592656689315850 -
Slovenia will have noticed though and they are one of the EU27 with a veto on the outcome of any future negotiations with the UKkle4 said:
The Foreign Office is probably a good place to mess up on the job and not be noticed by most of the public. Of course it makes anything other than a big triumph harder for people to notice too, but you may be insulated from everyday gaffes a bit.HYUFD said:
If you want full Coke No Deal then you will go for the real thing not the Asda own brand, in any case having insulted the whole of Slovenia a few weeks ago Hunt is lucky to still be Foreign Secretary let alone considered for the top jobkle4 said:
For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.Scott_P said:0 -
I was thinking about a Tory leadership election only. As he is.HYUFD said:
Slovenia will have noticed though and they are one of the EU27 with a veto on the outcome of any future negotiations with the UKkle4 said:
The Foreign Office is probably a good place to mess up on the job and not be noticed by most of the public. Of course it makes anything other than a big triumph harder for people to notice too, but you may be insulated from everyday gaffes a bit.HYUFD said:
If you want full Coke No Deal then you will go for the real thing not the Asda own brand, in any case having insulted the whole of Slovenia a few weeks ago Hunt is lucky to still be Foreign Secretary let alone considered for the top jobkle4 said:
For principled reasons not connected to a future leadership election of course.Scott_P said:0 -
How much is Mike paying for Vanilla to be embedded on his website?
It's been down for hours... He should ask for some money back.
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Have followed a lot today but no time to post, demanding new job doesn’t allow too many daytime refreshes.
But agree with most posters that the ERG and co are their own worst enemies.
More thoughts:
1) tomorrow should be a Tory bloodbath. The question of no deal is dead easy for all other parties except the DuP so the whole debate should be blue on blue. The other party speeches should simply read ‘Don’t be daft’ and leave the Tories to fight all day.
2) hopefully we’ll also see the Malthouse ‘compromise’ thrashed. What on earth is Nicky Morgan doing pushing this?
3) I think it’ll have to be a long extension, and we’ll have to pledge a GE, 2nd ref or full Norway deal to get it (maybe choosing between those 3 later)
4) even if the deal had passed today, under that sort of duress, it would never have held. The legislation to come is trickier, future relationship talks even harder.
5) EU should say they’ll ignore any extension proposal not agreed by May and Corbyn. Only way to force a majority I reckon.
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Drutt said:
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.
Except that a minister of the crown would need to make an order to commence the EUWA for the original EC Act to be repealed. Without that on the 29th the UK woukd cease to be a member of the EU under international law, but still subject to EU law under donestic law!Drutt said:
On Hunt at 66/1, and some of you are on at 100/1, remember.Scott_P said:
Wargame me this: the ERG could have got no deal brexit, TODAY, by saying loudly they'd back the deal outright and say "bubbles to the Irish problem; stuff 'em". DUP would have dropped the C&S agreement, called VONC before the vote, and maybe just won it. Parliament can't agree what day it is, let alone a new PM, so no govt means no legislation - diamond hard brexit in 17 days.
Yes, it's a bit far-fetched, but *gestures around*.
Maybe the Queen would have to make the order herself then, although I suppose even after a VONC the current ministry remains in place as caretakers until a new one is appointed.0 -
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Greetings from Bali! Have I missed anything? Or is it SNAFU?0
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Short version “only likely to be an issue in the US or Canada.viewcode said:
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We back? 0
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Morning all.
So here we go again. Betfair have a market on tonight’s vote on No Deal. There’s 1.61 available on 400 or more Ayes, that’s MPs voting *not* to go with the No Deal plan.
Given all the opposition parties are whipping for the vote, and plenty of Conservatives with a free vote will join them, does this not seem outstanding value?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.1561339420 -
If it was Southwest Airlines and American Airlines and not Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines five months apart, the 737 Max fleet would’ve been grounded by Sunday evening, according to senior U.S. industry officials and aviation safety experts
https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/the-world-pulls-the-andon-cord-on-the-737-max/0 -
This is light tinge panic. The heavy tinge panicking hasn’t started yet.kle4 said:
I find that last minute desperate measures with the heavy tinge of panic are very convincing.viewcode said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105596959002382336
Fan fiction governance continues...0 -
I think you may be exaggerating the Conservative Party's internal democracy.asjohnstone said:
I think it's more likely that the 75 that voted the deal down could be better aligned with the rank and file membership than those who voted for it.another_richard said:
Already suggested that.Pulpstar said:
All 75 that voted down the deal should be deselectedSean_F said:It's funny to think that, objectively, people like Kenneth Clarke and Alistair Burt are more committed to Brexit than JRM and Steve Baker.
I don't see how we don't get a GE soon - government and parliament are barely functioning and things are likely to get worse.
Deselection may happen the other way0 -
Brilliant.Drutt said:Anyway, it's at times like these you have to remember there's someone worse off than you. You could be ten points behind THIS government right now, or you could have seen GDP fall from $334B to $90B in eight years, like in Venezuela.
Assuming Chris Grayling has been a minister for about the same period and has cost the country say $3BN over that time, being Venezuelan is like having seventy Graylings in the cabinet all at once. Over eight years, you'd be approaching half a kiloGrayling, which is why they are eating their pets and there's no electricity.
'Night all.0 -
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That’s a good piece, that explains the issues well for a wider audience. It’s quite possible Boeing have now pushed the 1960’s design of the 737 past its limit, if the Ethiopian accident is related to the MCAS software there’s going to be calls for the plane to be re-certified as a new type - grandfather rights having been used for too long on what’s clearly a brand new aircraft.CarlottaVance said:If it was Southwest Airlines and American Airlines and not Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines five months apart, the 737 Max fleet would’ve been grounded by Sunday evening, according to senior U.S. industry officials and aviation safety experts
https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/the-world-pulls-the-andon-cord-on-the-737-max/0 -
The system is borken. AIUI, internationally, we rely on the regulation authority of the country a plane manufacturer is in to certify (accept) an aircraft type. In the case of Boeing, that's the FAA. Local regulatory authorities (e.g. EASA) just validate that certification - they don't have the information to certify the type fully.CarlottaVance said:If it was Southwest Airlines and American Airlines and not Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines five months apart, the 737 Max fleet would’ve been grounded by Sunday evening, according to senior U.S. industry officials and aviation safety experts
https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safety/the-world-pulls-the-andon-cord-on-the-737-max/
A decade or so back, the FAA granted Boeing even more latitude to approve themselves - and the two types they have completed under that new system, the 787 and now the 737Max, had significant issues. In the former case it did not cost lives; in the latter case there is reason to believe it has.
The FAA need to up their game. IMV their statement after the LionAir crash was utterly wrong-headed for a regulator.0 -
Now there’s a new thread on the main page, but Vanilla hasn’t spawned a comments thread for it.0
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Guess we'll have to do it on this thread.Sandpit said:Now there’s a new thread on the main page, but Vanilla hasn’t spawned a comments thread for it.
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First0
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LOL, sneaky!edmundintokyo said:First
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So, May's current plan:
1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big.
2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down.
3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.
Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default0 -
She is persistent. You have to give her that.Andy_Cooke said:So, May's current plan:
1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big.
2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down.
3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.
Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default0 -
Greetings fellow vanilla fans, sometimes life writes an implausible story:
https://twitter.com/mrJamesGraham/status/1105552195683041280?s=190 -
Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife0 -
Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1105601387872899072?s=190 -
Read Oliver Norgrove posts and can't find much to disagree with. This is all just too ridiculous now. Might as well call the whole thing off as with brains like the ERG on hand Brexit is clearly never going to happen anyway.0
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I’m still not sure she has a plan for anything past the next vote in the Commons. The dealAndy_Cooke said:So, May's current plan:
1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big.
2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down.
3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.
Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default
went down yesterday, no deal will go down today and a delay will go down tomorrow. Then what?
The deal is as dead as a dodo (as it has been since December), and the only chance of a concession from the EU is if they genuinely believe that no deal is the alternative.
The sensible way out from here is probably an election, but neither of the two largest parties are going to be able to write a manifesto chapter on the biggest issue of the day that gets majority support among their own candidates!
Oh, and it’s the Chancellor’s Spring Statement today after PMQs, just to add a little more into the chaos.0 -
On the contrary. The legitimacy of the first referendum is highly questionable. The second one needs to be seen as the definitive one and so has to have as broad an electorate as possible.Charles said:Changing the electorate for a second referendum would absolutely undermine its legitimacy
For this to have any chance of achieving a long term resolution it needs to be like Caeser’s Wife0 -
Surely with it now in doubt, it's a Brexitentialist issue?CarlottaVance said:0 -
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1105718354504007680Sandpit said:Oh, and it’s the Chancellor’s Spring Statement today after PMQs, just to add a little more into the chaos.
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I don’t think he’s signed it but just added his name at the last minute? Looks like there is no room for his signature between Baker and HartEl_Capitano said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264
Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?0 -
So this morning we are in the bizarre situation where the only institution more scandal-ridden, inept, leaderless, pathetic and dishonest than the government...
...is the Opposition.
Reflected in the fact the Tories still have a big lead in the polls despite being split from top to bottom and having just suffered the two heaviest defeats of any government since 1688.
And on top of that, in 16 days we have a massive economic upheaval to contend with.
We're screwed, aren't we?0 -
Possibly the worst way to have No Deal Brexit is to have a government and commons so divided amongst themselves, that no one can control the consequences.Sandpit said:
I’m still not sure she has a plan for anything past the next vote in the Commons. The dealAndy_Cooke said:So, May's current plan:
1 - Vote on No Deal, phrasing it that the only way to secure Brexit in time is to leave with a Deal and imply that a "No" to No Deal means Deal or no Brexit. Have it go down big.
2 - Vote on extend-and-revoke and extend-and-referendum. Have them go down.
3 - Revive the Deal yet again and go for MV3, claiming the House has rejected literally everything else.
Pitfalls: The House may amend one of the above to something else (to what, though?). It may vote "All right, yes then" to one of them (Which one? Only the first vote is a free one; with a 3-line whip, is there a majority in the House for a 2nd ref or revocation?). There may be a VoNC that's won by the Opposition (Do enough MPs want to take the chance of a Corbyn government or for No Deal to occur while the 2 week period is running?). All the fannying about may result in the clock running out with no decision and No Deal by default
went down yesterday, no deal will go down today and a delay will go down tomorrow. Then what?
The deal is as dead as a dodo (as it has been since December), and the only chance of a concession from the EU is if they genuinely believe that no deal is the alternative.
The sensible way out from here is probably an election, but neither of the two largest parties are going to be able to write a manifesto chapter on the biggest issue of the day that gets majority support among their own candidates!
Oh, and it’s the Chancellor’s Spring Statement today after PMQs, just to add a little more into the chaos.
There is an ocean of difference between a planned WTO No Deal Brexit, and an uncontrolled and chaotic crashout one with no one at the wheel.
Even No Dealers should support a long 21 month extension, with a new government and time to prepare, but they won't.0 -
But that isn’t May’s problem. She never went to the members and even if she had she still probably would have beaten Leadsome. And Cameron was chosen by the members despite being a more modernist choice.Foxy said:Ultimately the reason our politics has become so dysfunctional is that we have two parties with leaders past and present, that have to get support from a few hundred thousand obsessive activists. It is not easy to combine this with commanding support either in the Commons or the country.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1105601387872899072?s=19
Really, the membership and activists should be part of the caucus, as should registered supporters and MPs and other elected members, but not the only part.
And the MPs and association chairs should engage much more meaningfully with the members and activists. And there should be far tighter rules against entryism.0
