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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit

Cartoon by Marf
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And they'd be as thick as pig shit.
The remainers (of the Rees-Mogg and Grieve varieties) will see it happen. It's too late! The time for that was after Chequers was rejected outright. She managed it brilliantly, she must have been terrified when it looked like the massive poll leads would be borne out, and had to take drastic action to put a stop to that.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1105557387002429441
"A" no Brexit doesn't make sense? You would just say it's increased the chance of no Brexit not A no Brexit?
This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.
Which is not at all convincing because as we have been informed many many times, the result was legally, though not politically, irrelevant to them triggering A50, and just like any GE you cannot extrapolate that because a majority voted against the party that 'won' it is illegitimate somehow, because there's a majority against the positions of all the other parties too, including those that backed Remain.
I say May’s Deal Mk3 or Mk4 will pass.
I wonder what Tory Leavers would have done then.
In another life MPs voted to leave today and 5 years from now we'd be out of the EU, we'd have 40-50 trade deals signed and we'd be about to sign a long term trade deal with the EU along the lines of the Canada deal with a bit more border facilitation for goods trade.
Your lot have blown it and now we're doomed to an existence of servitude to the EU.
If we remain, I think it's time for us to join the Euro and Schengen. We need to go all in now and own the place. Our current stance doesn't work any longer.
more bloody amendments.
How ironic.
For an account of how the world's greatest direct democracy voted on the same issue two days running, changing its mind in the process. If it can do that in 2 days surely we can do it in 3 years?
I think the Betfair market might be the wrong way around.Betfair say Yes 1.16, No 6.8.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.156133674
IIRC the motion is in the negative, so Yes is for no deal.
It was 1.02 / 55 a few mins ago.
Someone once said no deal is better than a bad deal. Same could be said of no Brexit being better than a bad deal which is what May’s deal is. The mistakes were made at the beginning - failing to prepare for no deal and failing to go for a FTA from the start.
Wherever we end up, Britain’s reputation has been shredded thanks to the muppets we elect as MPs.
In the Cartoon I'm not sure if those arrow wounds are fatal, but they have been in practice.
"Are you so much a fucking loser, you can't tell when you've won?"
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.156133674
Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.153697106
Hurrah for the Tory party electing their leader via quasi-AV.
JCIAAS
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1105580868586926080
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105581633921601536
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1105581947592556544
1) Extension past Euro elections, possibly much longer
2) Moderate Tories help pass EU Ref 2 (Deal vs Remain) with the requirement that it be binding (they'll make a big deal about insisting on this), and the justification that it's the quickest way to make Brexit actually happen
Once they see this happening DUP/ERG may decide to suck it up and take TMay's Deal in preference to a coin flip between TMay's Deal and Remain, but who knows.
The hard part is that the 27 have to agree to (1), potentially without a clear plan presented to them, since the political space to say you'll do (2) has to first be created by (1). But TMay can point them to this post explaining how it all works out one way or another.
If not, we have an extension being voted for on Thursday.
If the EU come realise that we're serious and offer us a good deal we don't need to go for No Deal. If they don't, we're prepared.
I know it's getting hard to tell the difference nowadays.
In 21 months after planning for it, that's different.
We'll be offered defer A50 for 21 months or fuck off knowing that the EU will do all it can to make no deal as bad as possible.