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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit

SystemSystem Posts: 12,550
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit is delayed and/or revoked and it is all thanks to the ERG

Cartoon by Marf

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,936
    edited March 2019
    First... Like REMAIN in the next referendum?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited March 2019
    1 or rather (edit) 2.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,844
    Some MPs might say the 2016 result was superseded when Mrs May asked for a large majority to implement her Red Lines on Brexit and the country took away the majority she had inherited from David Cameron.

    And they'd be as thick as pig shit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Well this is all going terribly well..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    The path to remain has been activated. As you say revocation is too ballsy to happen, so extension it is, and I don't think even our MPs will dare ask and risk one holdout by not having an idea of what that extension is for, so something which puts remain back on the table will be included.

    The remainers (of the Rees-Mogg and Grieve varieties) will see it happen.
    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    dr_spyn said:

    more leaks than a Cardiff international.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602

    Oh, excellent. More dumb fucks debating on the deal that they wish existed. This is fan fiction, not governance.
    The way you get a deal you wish existed is to fight for it, take control and get it.

    May's crap deal has died. A new PM must get a new deal and this is a decent starting point.
    It's too late! The time for that was after Chequers was rejected outright.
    GIN1138 said:

    kjohnw said:

    Jonathan said:

    We need to pause to consider Mays unique incompetence today. The vote was not close. It was blown apart by a document her government published. She seems to have no idea that defeat was going to happen. She ploughed on regardless, spending whatever political capital she had left. What was her whipping operation doing? Why does she walk into these cul de sacs? Who is advising her?

    The cynic in me says she has purposely engineered this crap deal to ensure we remain in the EU. It was a cunning plan all along
    I've always thought the way she blew the election was suspicious... ;)
    She managed it brilliantly, she must have been terrified when it looked like the massive poll leads would be borne out, and had to take drastic action to put a stop to that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,936
    edited March 2019
    Surely this should be "has increased the chance of a no deal Brexit" ?


    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1105557387002429441


    "A" no Brexit doesn't make sense? You would just say it's increased the chance of no Brexit not A no Brexit?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,629
    Brexit would be done and dusted by now if we had gone for the true compromise; Switzerland.

    This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,812
    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.

    Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
    In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
    Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc

    Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
    Would immoral spendings be a teeny bit fair?
    Mmm maybe. I used to spend a ton on hookers. Hundreds of them.

    But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.

    Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
    Oysters are bivalve molluscs, NOT crustacea!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1105572996608151554
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Some MPs might say the 2016 result was superseded when Mrs May asked for a large majority to implement her Red Lines on Brexit and the country took away the majority she had inherited from David Cameron.

    Which is not at all convincing because as we have been informed many many times, the result was legally, though not politically, irrelevant to them triggering A50, and just like any GE you cannot extrapolate that because a majority voted against the party that 'won' it is illegitimate somehow, because there's a majority against the positions of all the other parties too, including those that backed Remain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,936
    Jonathan said:

    Well this is all going terribly well..

    You should be happy. Looks like we'll be remaining.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited March 2019
    I suppose, in May’s defence, leaving the EU was always destined to be this horribly fucking difficult. It’s a existential fight to the death for the Remainers, and the final throes of their collective raison d’étre for the ERG purists. Trying to find a way to the finish line was always going to be miserably difficult so in a weird way we have the perfectly miserable and difficult human being in charge of it.

    I say May’s Deal Mk3 or Mk4 will pass.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Sean_F said:

    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.

    I was told back in 2015 that had the coalition continued after the election then Clegg would have agreed to a referendum if the franchise was extended to those two groups.

    I wonder what Tory Leavers would have done then.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    Philip_Thompson said:

    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    felix said:

    another_richard said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    DavidL said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?

    The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.

    No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.
    Better than this deal.

    If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
    Who's going to be the new PM to invoke A50 ?

    I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.
    There are a lot of thick Brexiters in Parliament and a few more on here. Mr Thompson is one of them.
    I'm not thick, I have a principled objection to the backstop. And I don't view Brexit as more important than that.
    I've seen a lot of your recent posts and you arte well out of your depth on this.
    Disagreements aren't out of depth. Name one thing I've said which is wrong rather than a difference of opinion.
    That the commission wouldn't work towards a long term trade deal. You are absolutely wrong about that. They want us in the backstop permanently about as much as we want to be in it permanently. That plus the new arbitration process on bad faith on the part of the EU gave us a way out of the backstop if they kept us in against our will.

    In another life MPs voted to leave today and 5 years from now we'd be out of the EU, we'd have 40-50 trade deals signed and we'd be about to sign a long term trade deal with the EU along the lines of the Canada deal with a bit more border facilitation for goods trade.

    Your lot have blown it and now we're doomed to an existence of servitude to the EU.

    If we remain, I think it's time for us to join the Euro and Schengen. We need to go all in now and own the place. Our current stance doesn't work any longer.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Gallowgate said:

    Brexit would be done and dusted by now if we had gone for the true compromise; Switzerland.

    This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.

    EFTA would have made some sense as a first step. But no, May the technocrat had to over complicate it.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I agree with TSE.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1105488148929359872
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Gallowgate said:

    Brexit would be done and dusted by now if we had gone for the true compromise; Switzerland.

    This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.

    Switzerland has a hard border with the EU, so does Norway
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Thanks for the header, TSE.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,310
    https://twitter.com/MaryCreaghMP/status/1105573029940260864

    more bloody amendments.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,672
    So it looks as if the only control we have taken back is the right to revoke Brexit.

    How ironic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1105572996608151554

    They are becoming slightly unhinged. But based on current levels of switching the deal should get passed with MV4: Live Free or Die Hard Brexit
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,629
    Does Parliamentary procedure allow another vote on the exact same deal?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mytilenian_Debate

    For an account of how the world's greatest direct democracy voted on the same issue two days running, changing its mind in the process. If it can do that in 2 days surely we can do it in 3 years?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Fucking shyte (sorry Mike/TSE)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    edited March 2019
    Hang on a minute, does anyone have the text from Hansard of tomorrow’s no-Deal motion?

    I think the Betfair market might be the wrong way around.

    Betfair say Yes 1.16, No 6.8.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.156133674

    IIRC the motion is in the negative, so Yes is for no deal.
    It was 1.02 / 55 a few mins ago.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1105573315601670150
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    What would the likes of Bill Cash be able to do with their lives if not whinge about the EU? Revoking Brexit just enables them to step up the whinge even more
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TMay has many times noted just how many MPs voted in invoke article 50, a new vote to see if it is to be revoked would be v interesting!
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Sean_F said:

    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.

    If A50 is revoked, why would anyone think voting is worthwhile?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/MaryCreaghMP/status/1105573029940260864

    more bloody amendments.

    I know, right? They love amendments so much they spend more time on those than the main motion, no wonder they spend all the time talking about unicorns.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,946
    #CorbynsCustomsUnion
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,629
    Pulpstar said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Brexit would be done and dusted by now if we had gone for the true compromise; Switzerland.

    This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.

    Switzerland has a hard border with the EU, so does Norway
    Doesnt matter because it would not have depended on DUP to pass. NI could have been given the special status it needs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    This whole crisis owes way too much to Tory politicians trying to look good to their elderly and declining membership.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    Hang on a minute, does anyone have the text from Hansard of tomorrow’s no-Deal motion?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105552662785855496
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,422
    Gallowgate said:

    Brexit would be done and dusted by now if we had gone for the true compromise; Switzerland.

    This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.

    Even many Labour MPs from Leave seats have reservations about staying in or close to the single market as it requires free movement, more voters in a Labour seat like Burnley voted for Brexit over immigration than did Tory voters in the Home Counties
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    On topic: Agreed. The madness may be finally coming to an end. Sad that it may seriously damage one of the great political parties [ or more] in the process. For me, at my age, I have to go with the 'Peelites, I haven't the time to wait for the others to grow up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1105574099621998592
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    I don’t often agree with TSE but the para “Donkeys led by Donkeys” is right on the money. Revocation however doesn’t require balls. It just requires contempt for the electorate.

    Someone once said no deal is better than a bad deal. Same could be said of no Brexit being better than a bad deal which is what May’s deal is. The mistakes were made at the beginning - failing to prepare for no deal and failing to go for a FTA from the start.

    Wherever we end up, Britain’s reputation has been shredded thanks to the muppets we elect as MPs.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,629
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Brexit would be done and dusted by now if we had gone for the true compromise; Switzerland.

    This is all on May and the f*cking Conservative Party.

    Even many Labour MPs from Leave seats have reservations about staying in or close to the single market as it requires free movement, more voters in a Labour seat like Burnley voted for Brexit over immigration than did Tory voters in the Home Counties
    Stating that the country (read: the plebs) has a problem with EU free movement of people is not based on fact.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TMay has many times noted just how many MPs voted in invoke article 50, a new vote to see if it is to be revoked would be v interesting!

    Even if not a legal requirement, she should make the House vote on that. It's what the largest chunk want to do.

    In the Cartoon I'm not sure if those arrow wounds are fatal, but they have been in practice.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,108
    I cannot resist the temptation to repeat the immortal words of Harvey Keitel to George Clooney in From Dusk Till Dawn.
    "Are you so much a fucking loser, you can't tell when you've won?"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/1105566036349333504
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,250
    edited March 2019
    steve_garner said:

    Sean_F said:

    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.

    If A50 is revoked, why would anyone think voting is worthwhile?
    I'm always amazed that so many commenters here do appear to feel voting is worthwhile, but I guess statistically some people have to be lucky enough to live in a marginal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    steve_garner said:

    Sean_F said:

    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.

    If A50 is revoked, why would anyone think voting is worthwhile?
    When people claim that leaving the EU is the same as remaining in the EU and this vote against leaving though they want to leave, is there any point to voting anyway?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,042
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    I don’t often agree with TSE but the para “Donkeys led by Donkeys” is right on the money.

    'Asses led by assholes' would be a better summary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    HYUFD said:

    What would the likes of Bill Cash be able to do with their lives if not whinge about the EU? Revoking Brexit just enables them to step up the whinge even more

    Trouble is, your party has humoured such nonsense to the extent that it is now the default view amongst your pensioner members.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    El_Capitano said:

    steve_garner said:

    Sean_F said:

    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.

    If A50 is revoked, why would anyone think voting is worthwhile?
    I'm always amazed that so many comments here do appear to feel voting is worthwhile, but I guess statistically some people have to be lucky enough to live in a marginal.
    Not me sadly. Which does have the benefit that it won't be my fault if Corbyn wins the next election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hang on a minute, does anyone have the text from Hansard of tomorrow’s no-Deal motion?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105552662785855496
    Thanks. So it’s not back to front, but there’s a 16% return in 24 hours backing that to pass tomorrow night. There can’t be more than 150 or so against it.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.156133674
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    El_Capitano said:

    steve_garner said:

    Sean_F said:

    Altering the franchise would be seen as a gerrymander. MP's would be better off just revoking A50.

    If A50 is revoked, why would anyone think voting is worthwhile?
    I'm always amazed that so many commenters here do appear to feel voting is worthwhile, but I guess statistically some people have to be lucky enough to live in a marginal.
    One of the first council by-elections I ever helped with, the guy got in by one vote. For the rest of his term many of the residents who contacted him for help claimed that they were the one.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,250
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hang on a minute, does anyone have the text from Hansard of tomorrow’s no-Deal motion?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105552662785855496
    That last bit is obviously wrong, since there are clearly other routes to avoid no deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1105525382353170433
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    viewcode said:

    another_richard said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    eristdoof said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

    Yep.
    Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.

    Quite incredible.

    Quite predictable.
    I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.

    It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
    Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.
    And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.
    What are you talking about?

    Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.
    The backstop was the compromise.
    No the backstop was surrender.
    Only if you’re determined to be defeated, which the ERG appear to be.

    As they see it "better to reign in hell than serve in Heaven."
    Well thank you, Khan... :)
    Thanks, that's interesting.
    It is genuinely embarrassing that my exposure to some major poems were via genre fiction. I know parts of Tennyson’s Ulysses not thru an expansive education, but because it's cropped up in Skyfall and Babylon 5 (more than once in the latter case)
    What's embarrassing about that? The medium you experience these things through is irrelevant I'd have thought. I'm not at all embarrassed to have found things profound in the works of Terry Pratchett for example.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    That amendment makes no fucking sense. Why not just ask for a 21 month the extension of A50?!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,063
    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    dr_spyn said:

    more leaks than a Cardiff international.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602

    Oh, excellent. More dumb fucks debating on the deal that they wish existed. This is fan fiction, not governance.
    The way you get a deal you wish existed is to fight for it, take control and get it.

    May's crap deal has died. A new PM must get a new deal and this is a decent starting point.
    You have seventeen days. In that time you have to get 27 countries (or a qualified majority?) to agree your new deal and then get the European Parliament to pass it. Plus the EP doesn't sit on the 29th. I don't think you can get it done in time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/JulieOwenMoylan/status/1105556027980873729
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    edited March 2019
    There’s still a load of 1.41 available on a vote of no confidence in the government taking place in 2019. Doesn’t have to pass, just to take place. Surely Corbyn will call one this week?
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.153697106
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1105577475378159617
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    viewcode said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    dr_spyn said:

    more leaks than a Cardiff international.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602

    Oh, excellent. More dumb fucks debating on the deal that they wish existed. This is fan fiction, not governance.
    The way you get a deal you wish existed is to fight for it, take control and get it.

    May's crap deal has died. A new PM must get a new deal and this is a decent starting point.
    You have seventeen days. In that time you have to get 27 countries (or a qualified majority?) to agree your new deal and then get the European Parliament to pass it. Plus the EP doesn't sit on the 29th. I don't think you can get it done in time.
    Well and we'd need to go through the formalities of getting a new PM as well. For better or worse May is there until the 29th. The deal is dead and there is no way forwards now. Brexit is dead and the ERG killed it. Traitors. The lot of them.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hang on a minute, does anyone have the text from Hansard of tomorrow’s no-Deal motion?

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105552662785855496
    Thanks. So it’s not back to front, but there’s a 16% return in 24 hours backing that to pass tomorrow night. There can’t be more than 150 or so against it.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28180290/market?marketId=1.156133674
    1.06 now, and can lay at 1.09. Hope you all piled in. :D
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    Boris is screwed then.

    Hurrah for the Tory party electing their leader via quasi-AV.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,075
    bigjohnowls said:

    #CorbynsCustomsUnion

    #CorbynCustomsUnionWithEveryoneExceptIsraelJewsAmerica

    JCIAAS
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,253
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    Yes. We should. Fuck them all.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,063
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    It is genuinely embarrassing that my exposure to some major poems were via genre fiction. I know parts of Tennyson’s Ulysses not thru an expansive education, but because it's cropped up in Skyfall and Babylon 5 (more than once in the latter case)

    What's embarrassing about that? The medium you experience these things through is irrelevant I'd have thought. I'm not at all embarrassed to have found things profound in the works of Terry Pratchett for example.
    It's embarrassing because there is so much good stuff and so little time. Given my time over again and an unlimited budget, I would have worked my way thru some fields of knowledge and become as good at it as I could. But money and time dictated that I pick up the scraps I can on an opportunistic basis. It annoys me. Should I get to Heaven, I am hitting that library and not coming out until I learn something, godsdammit... :(
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    It would be a good reason to give to the EU for having an extension.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105580414859657217
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105580414859657217

    What an idiot. It isn't inevitable as there is no doubt a majority exists in the Commons against no deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1105577475378159617

    Dearie me. The warnings were not real before tomorrow's vote? Even ERGers can see a day ahead and knew what would likely happen tomorrow as a result of actions today, why would that scare them?
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105580414859657217

    Belief in the inevitably of one's cause can lead to complacency and laziness, failing to put in the necessary effort to see it happen well, or at all. It's not inevitable, even if it is harder to stop no deal by default than many think.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1105580868586926080

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105581633921601536

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1105581947592556544
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Is Robert around? I can't access comments through the main site.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,063
    MaxPB said:

    viewcode said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    dr_spyn said:

    more leaks than a Cardiff international.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602

    Oh, excellent. More dumb fucks debating on the deal that they wish existed. This is fan fiction, not governance.
    The way you get a deal you wish existed is to fight for it, take control and get it.

    May's crap deal has died. A new PM must get a new deal and this is a decent starting point.
    You have seventeen days. In that time you have to get 27 countries (or a qualified majority?) to agree your new deal and then get the European Parliament to pass it. Plus the EP doesn't sit on the 29th. I don't think you can get it done in time.
    Well and we'd need to go through the formalities of getting a new PM as well. For better or worse May is there until the 29th. The deal is dead and there is no way forwards now. Brexit is dead and the ERG killed it. Traitors. The lot of them.
    Indeed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,900
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1105577475378159617

    That's just government people going through the denial stage of the change curve, unable to accept that two years' hard work is already on its way down the toilet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1105582485897969665
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1105582485897969665

    Hurrah for the ERG.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1105582485897969665

    Looking forward to the next UK presidency of the EU council, or the next EU commission president from the UK.... stop laughing in the back...!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,732
    edited March 2019
    I think there's now an obvious route out of the treacle, namely:
    1) Extension past Euro elections, possibly much longer
    2) Moderate Tories help pass EU Ref 2 (Deal vs Remain) with the requirement that it be binding (they'll make a big deal about insisting on this), and the justification that it's the quickest way to make Brexit actually happen

    Once they see this happening DUP/ERG may decide to suck it up and take TMay's Deal in preference to a coin flip between TMay's Deal and Remain, but who knows.

    The hard part is that the 27 have to agree to (1), potentially without a clear plan presented to them, since the political space to say you'll do (2) has to first be created by (1). But TMay can point them to this post explaining how it all works out one way or another.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SeanT said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.

    Yeah a complete and total shutdown of Brexit. We have no choice, folks, no choice. 😊
    In which case Mr Glenn will be the hero of the site for depriving SeanT of a tiny slice of his immoral earnings.
    Immoral?!? I write stories that people like, and buy. Indeed I’ve just had a Hollywood film offer AND a BBC TV offer for etc etc

    Apart from that, yes, you’re absolutely right. Williamglenn saw this coming, and I did not. He has rightly earned his 1000 sterling, if we now Remain, as seems likely.
    Would immoral spendings be a teeny bit fair?
    Mmm maybe. I used to spend a ton on hookers. Hundreds of them.

    But now I am happily married I spend my ample cash on fine wine, biz class flights, ludicrously overpriced shoes from Jermyn Street.... and... that’s about it. Also oysters for the wife. We both love them.

    Hedonistic and indulgent, but not immoral - unless you severely disapprove of crustracea or fine English footwear
    Oysters are bivalve molluscs, NOT crustacea!
    Only on PB could a poster admit that he spent tons on hundreds of hookers, only to be picked up on his inaccurately citing the phylum of his favourite type of seafood.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    viewcode said:

    dr_spyn said:

    more leaks than a Cardiff international.

    https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602

    Oh, excellent. More dumb fucks debating on the deal that they wish existed. This is fan fiction, not governance.
    The way you get a deal you wish existed is to fight for it, take control and get it.

    May's crap deal has died. A new PM must get a new deal and this is a decent starting point.
    You have seventeen days. In that time you have to get 27 countries (or a qualified majority?) to agree your new deal and then get the European Parliament to pass it. Plus the EP doesn't sit on the 29th. I don't think you can get it done in time.
    We have 17 days if the plan is No Deal.

    If not, we have an extension being voted for on Thursday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Recidivist said:


    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    It would be a good reason to give to the EU for having an extension.
    "Sorry, we had to spend a bit of time purging the nutters from our party"? :p
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    That amendment makes no fucking sense. Why not just ask for a 21 month the extension of A50?!
    That's what I've advocated. 21 month extension, serious planning for No Deal in that time.

    If the EU come realise that we're serious and offer us a good deal we don't need to go for No Deal. If they don't, we're prepared.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    RobD said:

    Recidivist said:


    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    It would be a good reason to give to the EU for having an extension.
    "Sorry, we had to spend a bit of time purging the nutters from our party"? :p
    "Who'd be left over?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    RobD said:

    Recidivist said:


    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    It would be a good reason to give to the EU for having an extension.
    "Sorry, we had to spend a bit of time purging the nutters from our party"? :p
    We need more Ken Clarkes and fewer Jacob Rees-Moggs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    The way its been written makes it look like Steve Baker + Jacob Rees Mogg has been written by the same person.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    Philip_Thompson said:

    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    The way its been written makes it look like Steve Baker + Jacob Rees Mogg has been written by the same person.
    Yeah, the writing looks awfully similar.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,577
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Recidivist said:


    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    It would be a good reason to give to the EU for having an extension.
    "Sorry, we had to spend a bit of time purging the nutters from our party"? :p
    We need more Ken Clarkes and fewer Jacob Rees-Moggs.
    Ken Clarke for PM? :p
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RobD said:

    Recidivist said:


    glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1105578229010710528

    If the party had any brains they would deselect the lot of them.
    It would be a good reason to give to the EU for having an extension.
    "Sorry, we had to spend a bit of time purging the nutters from our party"? :p
    It was a joke not a serious proposal.

    I know it's getting hard to tell the difference nowadays.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Philip_Thompson said:

    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    The way its been written makes it look like Steve Baker + Jacob Rees Mogg has been written by the same person.
    Actually I think it has been written by the same person! What looks like it could be Baker's signature is there underlined but I don't see Mogg's signature there. Looks like Baker has signed it on behalf of both of them, looks like Mogg couldn't even be bothered to sign the paper. That's just weird.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Philip_Thompson said:

    MaxPB said:

    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    That amendment makes no fucking sense. Why not just ask for a 21 month the extension of A50?!
    That's what I've advocated. 21 month extension, serious planning for No Deal in that time.

    If the EU come realise that we're serious and offer us a good deal we don't need to go for No Deal. If they don't, we're prepared.
    We're not serious about no deal. The Commons is going to make that very clear tomorrow, so your plan will already have failed because the EU won't believe we will do it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The Commons will make it clear we're not prepared to exit in 17 days without any planning for it. So it bloody well should, I would too!

    In 21 months after planning for it, that's different.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,976
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The Commons will make it clear we're not prepared to exit in 17 days without any planning for it. So it bloody well should, I would too!

    In 21 months after planning for it, that's different.

    Only if you believe most of the objections to no deal in the Commons are because we don't have time to prepare for it now. Some will be, but a great many are just opposed on principle to no deal.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    El_Capitano said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1105573749288587264

    Why does Jacob Rees-Mogg sign his name with a "+"? Does he think he's a ****ing bishop?

    The way its been written makes it look like Steve Baker + Jacob Rees Mogg has been written by the same person.
    Actually I think it has been written by the same person! What looks like it could be Baker's signature is there underlined but I don't see Mogg's signature there. Looks like Baker has signed it on behalf of both of them, looks like Mogg couldn't even be bothered to sign the paper. That's just weird.
    Normally, one would need to pp it, if signing on behalf of another.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,546
    Seems clear that by Thursday's vote to beg an extension we will only get one if we have a significantly different plan other than keep bloody whining about the backstop and holding should-unseat-the-government vote mega defeats.

    We'll be offered defer A50 for 21 months or fuck off knowing that the EU will do all it can to make no deal as bad as possible.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Juve through. Another extraordinary turnaround.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105590034256809984
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105590964998098944
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,414
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105590034256809984

    Nothing has changed.
This discussion has been closed.