politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin
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You’re new here. You may not realise I am, literally, the Times Luxury Travel Correspondent. Here’s a piece from this Saturday, on my recent tour of Vietnam (££)Fishing said:
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/travel/luxury-vietnam-hotels-the-hot-new-places-to-stay-gpn63lgm6
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.
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Also likely the day democracy died if your timeline is accurate.HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
Worldwide as far as I am awareTGOHF said:
Where are those 400 located / owned ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children0 -
Yes, of course. Mea culpa.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not all 737 just the Max versiondixiedean said:Boeing 737 banned from UK airspace.
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Just plain silliness to hang on. What can she do? No changes are coming. Unless she backs a referendum or a GE she has nothing to offer.rottenborough said:
No, it seems she plans to cling on:kle4 said:
How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11054593909566627840 -
Most of them are in the US and China. The US airlines have so far sided with Boeing but they’re going to come under increasing pressure given most of the rest of the world seems to be grounding.TGOHF said:
Where are those 400 located / owned ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children
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Southwest airlines, hat tip @rcs1000 has some...TGOHF said:
Where are those 400 located / owned ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children0 -
Not just Hodges. Sounds like the Tories are briefing to put pressure on the ERG ...
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1105459270701772802?s=210 -
We inculcate dreams of a final unconditional victory...Pulpstar said:
What do we do at the moment ?viewcode said:
Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...?
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It May be..Danny565 said:Could it be....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/11054585171572695040 -
As well it's sensible to do so...if the deal if voted down, there's no way we are leaving before the elections.SouthamObserver said:Not just Hodges. Sounds like the Tories are briefing to put pressure on the ERG ...
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1105459270701772802?s=210 -
If you’re thinking about her position as PM, probably not, she’d have to speak to HM first.Danny565 said:Could it be....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105458517157269504
A GE, not sure. Technically the government doesn’t need HMs go-ahead now, just needs to rely on the FTPA. Was Liz consulted last time?0 -
Curse of the New Thread, but for added lolz, I'm still hoping Sinn Fein rock up this afternoon with crossed fingers.
No idea which way they'd vote if they did, but it would be a good laugh to watch.0 -
Because voting against No Deal doesn't prevent No Deal, any more than voting against the sun setting stops it getting dark. If you want to stop No Deal then you have to vote *for* something.rottenborough said:
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.david_herdson said:
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?
The easiest thing to vote for is an A50 extension but that has to be more than 3 months otherwise the UK drives up a cul-de-sac with No Deal very clearly at the end of it. However, asking for more than 3 months might not be something the government is willing to do, depending on what terms come with it. That's the point at which the TIG option comes into play.0 -
No, I mean with checking lorries from the EU ?viewcode said:
We inculcate dreams of a final unconditional victory...Pulpstar said:
What do we do at the moment ?viewcode said:
Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...?0 -
Too late. They've already announced the view, too embarrassing to change now. Fair play to Cox for not altering his professional view as much as the politics required it if he felt that was not justified, but it was needed for a reason.Nigelb said:Cox confirming for the headbangers that it would be perfectly possible for a headbanger government to resile from the treaty.
The Commons might as well be a pb thread right now for all the weight the words spoken now will have on the vote.0 -
Very evocative. Have you considered taking up writing as a career?SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.dixiedean said:0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzNyv6OdZuoSeanT said:
You’re new here. You may not realise I am, literally, the Times Luxury Travel Correspondent. Here’s a piece from this Saturday, on my recent tour of Vietnam (££)Fishing said:
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/travel/luxury-vietnam-hotels-the-hot-new-places-to-stay-gpn63lgm6
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.0 -
My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
I like this argument that stopping No Deal honours the referendum result.
https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1105048571039150080?s=210 -
The current Labour party would, in my view, destroy the Union in any event, so she might as well take the former.rpjs said:
I guess we’re going to find out whether May puts preserving the Conservative Party first or preserving the Union.Slackbladder said:0 -
Think the Good Ship May could be heading for an iceberg...0
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I think the future PPE finals question will be “At what point did the U.K. cease to be a meaningful political community?”
We have lost Protestantism, the Empire, and cannot resist a European hegemon that formed through willing cooperation rather than armed conquest. EU membership has been the solvent that has dissolved the last bonds of unity, and massively diluted the economic case for Britain.
Perhaps we really are finished.0 -
Many are owned by Irish companies.TGOHF said:
Where are those 400 located / owned ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children0 -
Why do the Tory faithful keep putting their trust in May?0
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You can probably tell using the seat map. They only have four of them, so chances are small.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
these are people who cycle at night wearing black with no lights but are also comforted by their insurance policy against a giant meteorite hitting Earth.Scrapheap_as_was said:I'm glad I don't have these headbangers as clients - their attitude to risk would be hard to score... willing to risk UK economy, jobs, growth, smaller role in the world etc (see Remainers list of risks) but not willing to accept a legal potential scenario whilst still achieving their objective return otherwise.
Does my head in.0 -
Why does that pressure them? They think remain is better than the deal so euro elections wont sppok them.SouthamObserver said:Not just Hodges. Sounds like the Tories are briefing to put pressure on the ERG ...
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1105459270701772802?s=210 -
"Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the ERG, asks what penalties would fall on the UK if a future parliament ignored its obligations under the backstop.
Cox says, as a law officer, he would not recommend breaking the law. But if circumstances changed fundamentally, the UK would be able to withdraw from the backstop. A sovereign country can resile from a treaty if circumstances change fundamentally. But he also says that it would be unwise for the country to ignore its legal obligations. This country would not do it, he says." - The Guardian
The return of perfidious Albion; no treaty safe with us...0 -
I think the DUP have seriously pissed off the centre in NI with their antics. A united Ireland is now very much on the cards while I think Scotland is less likely to go.SeanT said:
If there is no Brexit or a very soft Brexit why on earth would a united Ireland be more likely? We’d be staying in the Single Market and CU, so there would be no hard border. And after the Brexit experience, I don’t think anyone in these isles will be in the mood for another wrenching referendum anytime soon. The same, I think, applies in Scotland.felix said:OT - I'd be happy with a Referendum now or an alternative softer Brexit deal. I su.spect the die is now cast for a referendum on a united Ireland which would be a just reward for the DUP/ERG. I still think there is also a goodish chance of No Brexit. Indeed the least likely option now is No deal - another just reward for the diehards.
No Deal IS a direct threat to the Union, though the chaos and turmoil would make any vote quite hard to call.0 -
I am saddened by the likely loss of the deal tonight and find no comfort in the prospect of a referendum or more especially remaining in the EU, without ever acting on the original referendum.
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved0 -
There's no intelligence test for MPs is there. Even when they had it there appears to be a better than even chance of it being removed upon becoming a MP.0
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I think it was said in 2017 that she phoned Liz to tell her about the election the night before she announced it. Dunno if that was required, or just a courtesy.numbertwelve said:
If you’re thinking about her position as PM, probably not, she’d have to speak to HM first.Danny565 said:Could it be....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1105458517157269504
A GE, not sure. Technically the government doesn’t need HMs go-ahead now, just needs to rely on the FTPA. Was Liz consulted last time?0 -
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
It turns out the Irish government did not overplay its hand.0
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So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.0 -
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They have some Max in their fleet:Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Icelandair.htm
What’s the route?0 -
What if May had the bottle to turn up and say this is not a vote of confidence in my government but a vote of confidence in me. I have done my best. I will resign if I lose. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.0
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Because she’s not Boris.Jonathan said:Why do the Tory faithful keep putting their trust in May?
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Integrity is a quality most missing from our mps. Well done to Cox even if the outcome is not what I wantkle4 said:
What good is respect if they wont back the deal? With the DUP against it's done, so any respect is nice but meaningless.DavidL said:Cox is really very good. Not sure it’s going to be enough but the respect from all sides of the House is palpable.
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Icelandair's model is hubbing through Reyjavik so even if no MAX8 is operated to the UK, if your final destination is anywhere but Reyjavik, the second leg could be on a MAX. Icelandair's fleet is Boeing.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
I recently flew back from iceland on icelandair on a 737 max. should say on your ticjetPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
If it WIPs for a no-deal, that IS the point where TIG get a whole load of new converts in the house...david_herdson said:
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.0 -
Good map,TGOHF said:
Where are those 400 located / owned ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children
https://mobile.twitter.com/tictoc/status/11051277247237201920 -
I assume they will be in touch if they have 737 - 8 planes as they are grounded in the UK at presentPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
Harry Enfield actually looks a bit like me, there. The silvering hair, the winter tan, the drunken boasting. I have a MUCH hotter wife tho.FrancisUrquhart said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzNyv6OdZuoSeanT said:
You’re new here. You may not realise I am, literally, the Times Luxury Travel Correspondent. Here’s a piece from this Saturday, on my recent tour of Vietnam (££)Fishing said:
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/travel/luxury-vietnam-hotels-the-hot-new-places-to-stay-gpn63lgm6
In that light, forgive me if I completely ignore your ludicrously inferior travel advice, on the basis that I probably know, better than anyone in Britain, where to have a very nice time - given that I am paid by the Times to do precisely that.0 -
He was absolutely raging - in a very polite way.Scott_P said:0 -
It's been pretty obvious they're not in control of anything for months and they seem to have the strongest mid-term polling lead any government has seen in decades, so at this point it seems like a semblance of control is overrated.david_herdson said:
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.0 -
They have some planes and do fly them out of Manchester, I just don't know whether our flights going to be affected or not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume they will be in touch if they have 737 - 8 planes as they are grounded in the UK at presentPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
If the deal falls, there are very few good options for anyone who does not look forward to more uncertainty and the possibility of a lengthy period of utter chaos.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am saddened by the likely loss of the deal tonight and find no comfort in the prospect of a referendum or more especially remaining in the EU, without ever acting on the original referendum.
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved
The route to any kind of second referendum is necessarily convoluted, and there is very little time left to cobble it together. There is certainly no quick handwaving to accomplish it.0 -
She lost by 230 last time - might be even higher if she followed your suggestion.DavidL said:What if May had the bottle to turn up and say this is not a vote of confidence in my government but a vote of confidence in me. I have done my best. I will resign if I lose. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
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They operate a boeing fleet.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
Ask them the question on twitter maybe (With the obvious bias that you'd rather not), social media pressure can nudge companies these days.Philip_Thompson said:
They have some planes and do fly them out of Manchester, I just don't know whether our flights going to be affected or not.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume they will be in touch if they have 737 - 8 planes as they are grounded in the UK at presentPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
The government whipped against the Spelman amendment, so consistency suggests that they will whip to keep no deal as an option.david_herdson said:
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.0 -
That is a possibility, but FI could get in some wet-leased planes to cover, like Norwegian did when their 787s were having their engines fixed.Philip_Thompson said:
So the flight would still be going ahead? I'm worried we're going to be told the flight is cancelled.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
I wouldn't worry too much right now about it though. The aviation authorities are grounding the Maxes to a) reassure the public and b) get Boeing to get its finger out.
Either Boeing will satisfactorily demonstrate the Max is safe, and that the two crashes were unrelated (which is still quite possible to be the case) or it will find and fix the issue. Chances are that the Maxes will be flying again by the time you and your family are.0 -
On the contrary - we would be entering into a treaty with clear notice that a government of headbangers might resile from it.148grss said:"Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the ERG, asks what penalties would fall on the UK if a future parliament ignored its obligations under the backstop.
Cox says, as a law officer, he would not recommend breaking the law. But if circumstances changed fundamentally, the UK would be able to withdraw from the backstop. A sovereign country can resile from a treaty if circumstances change fundamentally. But he also says that it would be unwise for the country to ignore its legal obligations. This country would not do it, he says." - The Guardian
The return of perfidious Albion; no treaty safe with us...
And arrangement unlikely to be duplicated any time soon.0 -
I don't see how the Con party allows Mrs May to fight another election.Scott_P said:0 -
Earlier today you were confidently predicting a victory for the Deal, even though we told you this was unlikely. So your further utterances must be seen in that context.SouthamObserver said:It turns out the Irish government did not overplay its hand.
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UK participation in the EP elections could well shift the local elections to the same day. Local Campaign Managers won't be that involved in the former; the latter is their bread-and-butter.SouthamObserver said:Not just Hodges. Sounds like the Tories are briefing to put pressure on the ERG ...
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1105459270701772802?s=210 -
Just what we need, another Tezza v Jezza GE campaign..... groan.....Scott_P said:0 -
The £ has recovered much of the lost ground against the EURO - I suspect the markets feel soft Brexit or remain now in the ascendency. On T. May - many mistakes made but the majority of the problems are really much more to do with the nature of the task set rather than the person charged with delivery. Seriously who'd have done much better?0
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I think democracy is in fine shape. All the time there seemed to be a majority for Brexit it was taken seriously. But the composition of the HOC reflected the difference ideas about what Brexit meant. And now the public have cooled off the idea it looks like parliament is going to find a way to get us off the hook. The will of the people has been represented pretty well.Richard_Tyndall said:
Also likely the day democracy died if your timeline is accurate.HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
Nationality of the airline doesn't determine the source of their fleet very much. BA's long-haul fleet is predominantly Boeing, whereas US carriers like American and JetBlue have large Airbus fleets.Pulpstar said:
Noone will be flying out of UK airspace on an 8 Max, and quite rightly so. So I assume if the flight was originally going to be an 8-Max it'd be another Boeing, or more likely being a european(ish) operator the fleet would mainly be Airbus.Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.0 -
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You don’t know that yet.SouthamObserver said:It turns out the Irish government did not overplay its hand.
Ultimately they are forcing a no deal vs remain choice. They may have miscalculated.0 -
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Mrs May has negotiated a deal that relies extensively on the EU's good faith. The problem has always been that Leavers really don't trust the EU, but the Remainers do.
Tony's Blair's "We'll give back some of our rebate if you revise the CAP" was a classic of naïve meeting hard-headed EU practice. Sending soft, fluffy EU-fans who trust those nice men in Brussels was never going to end well.
Blair, Cammo, and May have found that out. Given their history, why would Leavers trust them?
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The EU was designed to do this. To dissolve allegiance to nations, to disaggregate them. The same is happening in Spain.RoyalBlue said:I think the future PPE finals question will be “At what point did the U.K. cease to be a meaningful political community?”
We have lost Protestantism, the Empire, and cannot resist a European hegemon that formed through willing cooperation rather than armed conquest. EU membership has been the solvent that has dissolved the last bonds of unity, and massively diluted the economic case for Britain.
Perhaps we really are finished.
It’s one of the reasons us eurosceptics have hated it from the start. But no one listened to us, until it was too late and leaving became impossibly hard.0 -
Okay, trying to break down to essentials:
As of today, we're legally set to leave the EU at 11pm, two weeks on Friday. This means that the only three options are:
1 - We sign a Deal
2 - We extend the deadline (includes extension+GE, extension+ref, extension+alternate deal, extension+fannying about and achieving nothing)
3 - We leave with No Deal
(NB - Item 3 is the default if nothing changes)
Deal-wise, this is the only one on the table. Chance of it passing - maybe 5%? Stranger things have happened.
If we ask to extend the deadline, my guess it will be "long, or nothing." With EU elections coming up, they need clarity on whether or not we'll be standing. If we're in them, we should run to the end of the budget period. If we're not, then it truly is "Deal or No Deal; we Brexit nevertheless". I can only see that happening if Parliament gets pretty close to passing it and May can convince the EU that one more heave will absolutely and genuinely get it over the line.
No-one (well, no-one in Parliament other than the loons) wants item 3, but if we're gridlocked, or if the EU overplay their hand in extension discussions ("You can have one, but give Spain Gibraltar"), it happens in 17 days and 9 hours, anyway.
My best guesses at odds:
- Deal (5%) [includes with short extension]
- Long extension (60%)
- No Deal (35%)
- Other unexpected <1%
- [Note that the first three are approximate to allow for that <1%]
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Afternoon, Brendanumbertwelve said:
Just what we need, another Tezza v Jezza GE campaign..... groan.....Scott_P said:
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a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.Scott_P said:0 -
If mps hate the deal fine, but what gets me spitting mad is the likely scenario that they dont make an actual alternative choice.
Its unforgivable stupid to keep saying no to everything, they need to say yes to something, anything.0 -
If we remain, the Conservatives will lose enough Brexiteers to the Farage Party to put the hard left in power. On the plus side, at least Corbyn will be limited in what he can do by our continuing membership of the EU. Happy days!Big_G_NorthWales said:I am saddened by the likely loss of the deal tonight and find no comfort in the prospect of a referendum or more especially remaining in the EU, without ever acting on the original referendum.
If remainers think all will be fine if we stay in the EU the ill feeling towards the EU will be intense for years to come and I doubt we will be anything other than a difficult party, especially under a brexiteer led conservative government
This has no good endings but TM deal will in hindsight be seen as the best we could have achieved0 -
Except, as regard Brexit, for those who vote Labour or Conservative.Slackbladder said:
a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.Scott_P said:0 -
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1105467457014243328Slackbladder said:a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.
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If the ERG had backed the deal today but it failed due to Labour/DUP/TIG and a tiny handful of Remain headbangers like Grieve then a new election could have solved things.
If the deal dies by 200 votes or similar a new election solves nothing. Only May's resignation can change things and if a new PM can unite the Tory Party behind something then an election might make sense.0 -
David Davis, Boris Johnson, Andrew Bridgen etc etc. The whole lot of them.felix said:The £ has recovered much of the lost ground against the EURO - I suspect the markets feel soft Brexit or remain now in the ascendency. On T. May - many mistakes made but the majority of the problems are really much more to do with the nature of the task set rather than the person charged with delivery. Seriously who'd have done much better?
In their own minds.0 -
IMO, Labour's position in a snap election will be "we'll extend Article 50 for two years, we'll negotiate our version of Brexit (Customs Union etc.), then we'll put that deal vs Remain in a referendum at the end of it".
Which would store up a lot of problems for them down the road if they actually got into government, but could potentially work as a short-term position to get them through the election campaign.0 -
Mr b,
"a government of headbangers."
Bring it on, I'll vote for the headbangers next time. One democracy fails, I'll go with the most extreme. At least they won't pretend to be democratic. Hard left or far right, it doesn't matter.
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Nigel Evans is switching to support the deal.0
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Will there not be a great reckoning before/during the campaign? Or will the two leaders fudge something that allows their parties to continue to be home to people with opposite views on Brexit?Richard_Nabavi said:
Except, as regard Brexit, for those who vote Labour or Conservative.Slackbladder said:
a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.Scott_P said:0 -
That is the logic but it's a much sharper vote now and Hammond went as close as he could the other day to saying that he couldn't vote for it.OblitusSumMe said:
The government whipped against the Spelman amendment, so consistency suggests that they will whip to keep no deal as an option.david_herdson said:
We don't know how the government will whip on the No Deal vote yet. Seems pretty hard to go either way without prompting cabinet resignations. If it whips for No Deal, then the PM could be looking for a new chancellor to deliver the Spring Statement.TheScreamingEagles said:
Alternatively, it could have no whip and admit that it's completely lost any semblance of control.
Presumably Rudd would have to resign too, which might set a record of sorts. Has anyone resigned twice from the cabinet within 12 months before?0 -
Precisely. Tory GE supporters baffle me more than anyone when that is their reasoning. They need to fix the mess before they can ask the people to choose them.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1105467457014243328Slackbladder said:a GE is 'cleaner' potentially than a new referendum. at least people will know what they are voting for in the immediate.
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Thanks. My wife has the tickets, if need be I'll ask her to check. I don't want to worry her if don't need to.nielh said:
I recently flew back from iceland on icelandair on a 737 max. should say on your ticjetPhilip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
Manchester -> Keflavik, Keflavik -> Edmonton, Alberta.CarlottaVance said:
They have some Max in their fleet:Philip_Thompson said:My wife and children are booked to fly with Icelandair in a few weeks. Is there any way to tell whether their flight is booked to be on a Boeing 8 Max or not?
Nothing up on Icelandair's website or on their Twitter page that I can see regarding this.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Icelandair.htm
What’s the route?0
