politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of getting her deal through
The past 24 hours on the "when will the Betfair Commons pass" the vote market@betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/4wzQAggTTw
Comments
-
First. Unlike TM s latest wheeze.0
-
Cox!0
-
I wonder how Peter Goldsmith feels today?0
-
Gweeve up now up - Cox thinks he's wrong.
0 -
PB’s 6,666th thread on Vanilla. Nice.0
-
This is bizarre legal argument prior to the most important political vote since Iraq at least.
None of this is relevant in any meaningful sense.0 -
FPT:
Yep. If anything a narrow defeat would be seen by May as license to continue her game of chicken, which increases the chance of no deal (especially if we get a short extension, as we'd be unlikely to then get another). That could then force Remain-/soft Brexit-leaning Tories to move against her.rottenborough said:
I thought HoC would be voting tomorrow on No Deal? And there was no way that vote would be lost i.e. No Deal off the table and extension.david_herdson said:
I agree. It is possible - and I'm not necessarily predicting this as a scenario - that more Con MPs could jump ship to TIG if it looked like the ERG were trying to engineer a No Deal, and that they would prefer to ensure an A50 extension through whatever means necessary than be complicit in No Deal.Anorak said:
I think you're misreading how febrile the situation is.brokenwheel said:
You mean like it brought down the government last time?Anorak said:
Because a loss by 200 would bring down the government, whereas a loss by 60 would not?Philip_Thompson said:
No its not. No deal is better than a bad deal and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.brendan16 said:
Because a bad Brexit is better than no Brexit at all?Philip_Thompson said:
Why? DUP are against, enough ERGers are against. This is dead. Why vote in favour.rottenborough said:ERG will split. Question is how many diehards?
Expect 400+ Nays again. There's more life in John Cleese's Norwegian Blue.
But its moot. The deal is dead. It won't win. Once its clear it won't win, why compromise on your principles and back a dead deal futilely given it won't win even if you do?
Why do these Tories need to join TIG to do that?0 -
I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?0
-
Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.0
-
Isn’t the extension vote tomorrow? One wonders if May will survive the night.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?
0 -
Cox is really very good. Not sure it’s going to be enough but the respect from all sides of the House is palpable.0
-
Dodds standing up...0
-
Just an FYI.
Mike’s busy tonight and I’m your editor for the evening.
As we all know things are quiet when I’m in the hot seat.0 -
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
0 -
But won't MPs have voted against No Deal? And, unlike the people voting against Remain, they'll argue they shouldn't have to vote on No Deal again.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?
0 -
So - what threshold is needed to keep trying? 202 ayes last time. Looks like 240-280 this time.Stereotomy said:
Yep. If anything a narrow defeat would be seen by May as license to continue her game of chicken, which increases the chance of no deal (especially if we get a short extension, as we'd be unlikely to then get another). That could then force Remain-/soft Brexit-leaning Tories to move against her.
Seems it'd need the very upper end of that. I suppose the govt could talk up 202>280, then the final push is much less of a leap. But even then the last holdouts are going to be near impossible, the DUP and the final 20 foamers.
0 -
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.
0 -
-
Geoffrey Cox's deep, booming voice
0 -
Hoey sitting behind him next to Lady HermonGallowgate said:Dodds standing up...
0 -
Class act. Could do with another 649 of him in parly.Sunil_Prasannan said:Geoffrey Cox's deep, booming voice
0 -
Be careful looking at Wiki poll listing - someone has put up a one year old Survation poll showing a Lab lead of 7%.
(Click on link and you get 2018, not 2019!)0 -
Hmm, but hasn't a customs union must have been voted on 6 times at least ?tlg86 said:
But won't MPs have voted against No Deal? And, unlike the people voting against Remain, they'll argue they shouldn't have to vote on No Deal again.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?
0 -
0
-
Yes, remainers are hypocrites. Who knew?Pulpstar said:
Hmm, but hasn't a customs union must have been voted on 6 times at least ?tlg86 said:
But won't MPs have voted against No Deal? And, unlike the people voting against Remain, they'll argue they shouldn't have to vote on No Deal again.Pulpstar said:I wonder if the extension vote will pass, and then the EU will come back to us saying we will grant an extension only for a new referendum. May comes back, the 2nd referendum vote is shot down and then the deal goes up for one final go against no deal ?
0 -
Thumbs down from Sir Bill Cash! He's hanging tough.
Has not spent his entire political life fighting for the UK to leave the EU just in order to vote for a deal that takes the UK out of the EU.0 -
Quiet day then.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.0
-
We had a few hours optimism that a resolution was in sight. Now the zombie deal is dead again. What a ride.
What a waste of time 3 months has been.0 -
-
Is OGH away tomorrow, too?DavidL said:
Quiet day then.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Watching Cox perhaps. Was a great session until that nugget Creasey stood up.Richard_Nabavi said:Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
0 -
So if Cox is really "marking his own homework", would could do better be written at the bottom?0
-
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.dixiedean said:0 -
Been a while since I have seen anyone dominating the House quite like this.TGOHF said:
Watching Cox perhaps. Was a great session until that nugget Creasey stood up.Richard_Nabavi said:Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
0 -
If I am caught in the act of committing a crime in front of dozens of witnesses with a smoking gun in my hand I want Geoffrey Cox to defend me.0
-
Slurrby now up -calls Cox "the attourney".
0 -
Two more MPs have changed sides Mark Pritchard and John Lamont. But I agree. 215-220 is my guess right now.:Richard_Nabavi said:Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
0 -
Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.0 -
Nice.SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.dixiedean said:0 -
Hope-betting?Richard_Nabavi said:Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
Maybe the markets think MPs are lying cowards who will secretly vote YES. If so, I suspect the markets are wrong, at least as regards the YES-voting. The deal falls.0 -
Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
-
I’m confused, here on soi Nana, Sukhumvit Road. Are we still sure there will be a No Deal vote tomorrow? Didn’t TMay threaten to pull that or something?HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
Indeed, Cox may be a good lawyer but he is no politicianTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
OT - I'd be happy with a Referendum now or an alternative softer Brexit deal. I su.spect the die is now cast for a referendum on a united Ireland which would be a just reward for the DUP/ERG. I still think there is also a goodish chance of No Brexit. Indeed the least likely option now is No deal - another just reward for the diehards.0
-
I'm glad I don't have these headbangers as clients - their attitude to risk would be hard to score... willing to risk UK economy, jobs, growth, smaller role in the world etc (see Remainers list of risks) but not willing to accept a legal potential scenario whilst still achieving their objective return otherwise.
Does my head in.
0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Been AFK for most of the day. Mildly regretting not backing the 3.25 on 200-249 MPs backing the deal, but there we are.0 -
However. Were assymetric warfare to occur, as probably likely, 2 good places for guerrillas to hold out would be big cities and the Highlands. Both Remain redoubts...viewcode said:
Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.
...I can't believe we are discussing this semi-seriously....0 -
I've sold the Ayes at 248 for £3 a vote.AlastairMeeks said:
Two more MPs have changed sides Mark Pritchard and John Lamont. But I agree. 215-220 is my guess right now.:Richard_Nabavi said:Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
0 -
Agree - this is how Blair probably advised Macron to play it too....HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
Platinum, gold, steel, shavings, surgical steel. Everything is bright, shiny and glittering. Pause. You're on MDMA again, aren't you...SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.dixiedean said: 0 -
Yes. They had the chance to Brexit and dont want it.Slackbladder said:
When will the official break happen? A couple months into no deal or when the commons approves a referendum and we remain?0 -
-
Except that, like the Confederacy, their economy will collapse.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.0 -
I am not so sure. There’s the Glasgow Neds and the Provos to throw in for Remain.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.
0 -
Convenient for the Leave generals that remainers are concentrated in a few areas....dixiedean said:
However. Were assymetric warfare to occur, as probably likely, 2 good places for guerrillas to hold out would be big cities and the Highlands. Both Remain redoubts...viewcode said:
Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.
...I can't believe we are discussing this semi-seriously....
0 -
If there is no Brexit or a very soft Brexit why on earth would a united Ireland be more likely? We’d be staying in the Single Market and CU, so there would be no hard border. And after the Brexit experience, I don’t think anyone in these isles will be in the mood for another wrenching referendum anytime soon. The same, I think, applies in Scotland.felix said:OT - I'd be happy with a Referendum now or an alternative softer Brexit deal. I su.spect the die is now cast for a referendum on a united Ireland which would be a just reward for the DUP/ERG. I still think there is also a goodish chance of No Brexit. Indeed the least likely option now is No deal - another just reward for the diehards.
No Deal IS a direct threat to the Union, though the chaos and turmoil would make any vote quite hard to call.0 -
-
How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.Scott_P said:0 -
Don't jinx it; I'm having huge fun making small amounts of money every time it bounces around. Have now cashed out twice at one point away from local extrema.Richard_Nabavi said:Spread now back up to 253-263. I don't really see why TBH. We're seeing precious little sign of movement amongst MPs compared with last time.
0 -
https://twitter.com/RSAMatthew/status/1105457278633865216tottenhamWC said:
Agree - this is how Blair probably advised Macron to play it too....HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
They are going to field candidates? Brave.Scott_P said:0 -
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.0 -
No, it seems she plans to cling on:kle4 said:
How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11054593909566627840 -
I voted remain and was very firmly of the opinion that the referendum result should be implemented. But given what an almighty mess the Brexiteers have made of everything I’m tempted to say sod it, let’s have a second vote now. They’ve had their chance.HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children
0 -
Boeing 737 banned from UK airspace.0
-
LOL, as much as I know you agree with Mr Hodges' opinions, you don't really take him seriously as an "inside source", do you?rottenborough said:
No, it seems she plans to cling on:kle4 said:
How quick from potential triumph to political end. I hope she's packed her thi gs ready to move out.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105459390956662784
0 -
Those adjectives probably only apply when you are sober.Fishing said:
My condolences. Bangkok is a sprawling, grimy, polluted shithole, though better than Jakarta or Manila. Head to the islands or Ayyuthaya instead. Much nicer.SeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel. 0 -
A bit like Dobby in Harry Potter who bargained long and hard against actually being paid by Dumbledore.kinabalu said:Thumbs down from Sir Bill Cash! He's hanging tough.
Has not spent his entire political life fighting for the UK to leave the EU just in order to vote for a deal that takes the UK out of the EU.
Still, look at it this way. If Brexit is stopped, only a minority of people like me will be unhappy. Remainers will obviously be happy, and the ERG will be ecstatic.0 -
Scouse battalion as well, la.SouthamObserver said:
I am not so sure. There’s the Glasgow Neds and the Provos to throw in for Remain.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.0 -
I guess we’re going to find out whether May puts preserving the Conservative Party first or preserving the Union.Slackbladder said:0 -
It's been that for quite some time.RobD said:PB’s 6,666th thread on Vanilla. Nice.
0 -
Leave is bankrolled by the Russians. Or had you forgotten?IanB2 said:
Except that, like the Confederacy, their economy will collapse.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave. 0 -
-
Cox confirming for the headbangers that it would be perfectly possible for a headbanger government to resile from the treaty.0
-
If I recall correctly, the 2014 European elections were the first national elections since 18something when the Tories came third.
They would be doing extremely well to reach that level if we send MEPs to the next European Parliament.0 -
Germany (Heckler and Koch), Italy (Berreta) and Austria (Glock) are manufacturers of firearms. In a no-deal brexit, lorries will be waved thru customs unchecked. How many sub machine guns or semi-automatics would you like...?dixiedean said:
However. Were assymetric warfare to occur, as probably likely, 2 good places for guerrillas to hold out would be big cities and the Highlands. Both Remain redoubts...viewcode said:
Although Goodwin divides Leavers into three tribes (the poor, the retireds, wealthy social Conservatives), I think its true that the biggest single indicator of Leaverism is age. Therefore a representative sample of Remainers would beat one of Leavers in a fistfight/knifefight because of their greater age and limited movement. However, if we consider access to wealth, the presence of superwealthy Leavers may imply access to exotic weaponry or mercenaries. In that scenario Leave would win.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.
...I can't believe we are discussing this semi-seriously.... 0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgc_LRjlbTUSeanT said:
Back in Bangkok, actually. The sun broils, the curries are hot, the ladyboys parade. I love these tropical evenings. The curve of the moon looks like a fallen platinum eyelash, a Halloween pumpkin smile, a shaving of gold from God’s workbench. The skyscrapers glitter, like surgical steel.dixiedean said:0 -
May will put the Union first, in any case there is a majority in the Commons for extension and BINO or EUref2 over No Deal so she has little choice, plus May knows she will not fight another election, Boris can do that, let him win back Leaversrpjs said:
I guess we’re going to find out whether May puts preserving the Conservative Party first or preserving the Union.Slackbladder said:0 -
Not all 737 just the Max versiondixiedean said:Boeing 737 banned from UK airspace.
0 -
Seriously why cant they just vote now?0
-
Where are those 400 located / owned ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boeing have 400 737 - 8 in service and 5000 on orderCarlottaVance said:
They have a very serious problem but I for one would not fly on one especially with my grand children0 -
Still on I believeSeanT said:
I’m confused, here on soi Nana, Sukhumvit Road. Are we still sure there will be a No Deal vote tomorrow? Didn’t TMay threaten to pull that or something?HYUFD said:Is today the day 'that Brexit died' to misquote American pie?
We know if the Deal fails tonight the Commons will overwhelmingly reject No Deal tomorrow and vote for extension of Article 59 on Thursday, the EU will likely demand Remain v Deal referendum ad its price, the Commons will agree to avoid No Deal and Remain likely would win it now0 -
Reading 'Rule Britannia' at moment. Some very interesting facts. Only 1/3 of under 25s voted in the referendum. Most sat it out.RobD said:
Leave is bankrolled by the Russians. Or had you forgotten?IanB2 said:
Except that, like the Confederacy, their economy will collapse.SeanT said:
Young people tended somewhat to Remain but the young Remainers are all hipster snowflakes with manginas, whereas the Leavers are hardnut council kids from Sunderland who’d give them a total shoeing.edmundintokyo said:
That would be unsportsmanlike since the brexit enthusiasts are mostly getting on a bit. Darts?SeanT said:Shall we just have a civil war? I think that’s the last option left. Take it outside, like men.
Walkover for Leave.0 -
Charles Walker MP calling for a GE if the vote goes down.0
