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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile Johnson edges up further in the next CON leader betting
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And in answer to Jonathan, I guess I would vote for the deal.
- Boris, July 2003.
- Boris, June 2004.
All you need is Gove
All you need is Gove
All you need is Gove, Gove
Gove is all you need
Boris don't hurt me
Don't hurt me
No more
On the business for the day, I hope MPs will take after Michael Collins rather than Eamonn de Valera.
Meanwhile the going at Cheltenham is blustery but we haven't had the rain that has been threatened. Yet.
After 12 years the passion has waned a little, but SNP & electorate still conjoining with dogged consistency.
https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1105397308856909825
I just cannot see Johnson as PM - unless he turns out like Hal in Henry V pt 1 and 2
I think he’ll chicken out, again.
I would vote for the deal but then I would have voted for it before.
I don't see the changes being that material in the real world. I don't think that the EU will want to hold us within the backstop without even a promise to chip into the pot indefinitely. It is not the way that they do business. I don't think we can be held to the backstop if we choose not to be although I do accept that there are consequences for unilateral withdrawal.
The real game here is what at least the first version of our actual deal with the EU will look like. If we are trapped into the backstop short of walking away we are pretty much committed to a very soft Brexit indeed, probably involving continued membership of the CU. If we have a credible means of withdrawing from the backstop then the parameters of that discussion are wider. Whether we choose to take advantage of those wider parameters will of course be up to us and the EU in negotiations. We will start with a slightly more level playing field and the ERG should recognise that, even if the slope still inevitably favours the bigger player.
The absolute priority for our political class today and every day for the last 6 months should be to end the uncertainty and risk of a cliff edge departure which we have not prepared for. The deal does that, or at least buys a period of time in transition to sort things out. Given where we are MPs will be in serious dereliction of their duties if they don't vote this through.
The size of May’s win tonight. With DUP, Mogg, Davis, and Rabb, boles and the permanently startled owl in lobby with her as now looking likely, then she wins by more than 40 surely? (The longer these people don’t say what they will do the more likely they back may)
The other interesting one is if May gains more labour MPs in lobby with her than Tory MPs in lobby with Corbyn and Abbott. May’s win is 50 or more as looking likely as today progresses isn’t just about Tory MPs. 30 or 40 labour MPs wishing to either avoid second ref or just stop playing brexit chicken will ensure she wins by over 50. What was made clear to all of us in winter months, Corbyns whips office have zero control over Labour MPs in the meaningful votes.
They are stuck. As therefore are we.
https://twitter.com/notDcfcBoss/status/1105246947961651201
Collins as with JFK is revered as he died young so never really had his reputation ruined by the realities of running a newly independent nation.
"Australia becomes latest country to suspend Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft"
https://news.sky.com/story/boeing-to-issue-software-update-to-make-737-max-safer-11662753
They're still flying in this country, with TUI Group.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47519929
If the deal is voted down today it will be those who are anti brexit who will be celebrating.
Is she that stupid? Did she really not confer with him first?
But I want a Brexit without the risk of disaster attaching to it, so I'd vote for May's Shit Deal. Then boot our May and anyone associated with the negotiations of May's Shit Deal - including all those who refused to plan for No Deal.
Then get real ornery on the trade deal negotiations, whilst planning for WTO in 2021.
Game theory suggests we will crash out, but in the end - surely - MPs will realize this is not a game.
I think there is a Brexit metaphor in there somewhere.....
[1] Back then, SF even refused to recognise the Dail.
Raining heavily now.
He very obviously doesn't have the necessary movable principles or the self deceiving ability to spin on the tiniest coin of 'unilateral declaration' to become an honorable member.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1105391205381218305
However, one thing was interesting. Although there was almost no discussion of national politics, no less than three people went out of their way, quite separately and without any real relevance to the subjects being discussed, to express what I can only describe as contempt for Boris. These were not lily-livered Cameroons, either, but traditional shire Tories who probably all voted Leave. No-one spoke favourably of Boris, or expressed disapproval of any other possible contenders.
Make of this what you will: my view is that support for Boris is much less than the media and the markets think, and (perhaps more importantly) the Anyone But Boris viewpoint is very widely shared not only amongst MPs, but also in the membership.
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/433599-trump-raises-hopes-for-permanent-daylight-savings-time
That doesn’t make his opinions worthless, however. He is often acute, and prescient.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1105387147446636545?s=20
Leadership race by weekend.