politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we on the point of breakthrough?
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Juncker has called it legally-binding.0
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'Not enough yet'?! What is he on about, he thinks they can get more by tomorrow?Scott_P said:0 -
THOR: You're lateGallowgate said:
Ragnarok is my 2nd favourite.viewcode said:
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcoughGallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105226399089152007
LOKI: You're missing an eye
VALKYRIE: This isn't over...
Given that we are all celebrating May's EU thing but Jacob Rees Hela is still advancing towards us, I thought it might be a good time to remind ourselves of that dialogue...0 -
Finally something helpful. I'll choose to be relatively hopeful for a few minutes on this, but I guess it'll come down to Cox to give it even a chance.Philip_Thompson said:Juncker has called it legally-binding.
Better hope for Labour too - if enough ERGers do not hold firm you need them to do so.Awb683 said:Hold firm ERG and vote this awful deal down.
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Junker seems to think it’s legally binding0
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It seems Liddington has not seen it yet either, so currently we have the blind debating the blind.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.FF43 said:
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
I reckon that we really know Nothing has Changed!
Indeed one of the problems of the backstop, from Dec 2017 on has been that what the Backstop means has been interpreted differently by each side all along.0 -
Ken Clarke on Newsnight is quite splendid.
JRM.... isn’t.0 -
Also said no changes to WAPhilip_Thompson said:Juncker has called it legally-binding.
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“Tired and emotional”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers seems quite upset to be fair
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Juncker seems a bit less Soubry than usual. Definitely conciliatory too.0
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Ken Clarke pure class on newsnight.
I suspect this is all a waste of time and this deal isn't going through, but I've given up on trying to work this out.0 -
Seriously, I would expect him to say, why are you insulting our intelligence by making a statement on an agreement that either doesn't exist or you don't think we deserve to see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.FF43 said:
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Did he say that?0 -
If you were thinking that A50 requires the leaving MS to negotiate with the Council, and were wondering why Tusk isn't doing this presser rather than Juncker, the latter just said "I have just [told Tusk the EUCO will approve it] and he [rolled over and said okay]".Philip_Thompson said:Juncker has called it legally-binding.
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They can't reject no deal. It's the law. They can't force the government to drop it as you need primary legislation to do that, plus the Queen's consent which only Ministers can give. If the deal dies we will either have to revoke or leave on 29th with no deal. That's it.HYUFD said:
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes realsolarflare said:
It's worked so well this far.HYUFD said:
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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What's it though?Sweeney74 said:Junker seems to think it’s legally binding
Meaningful legal assurances in complementary instrument outside of WA which is unaltered.0 -
Junckers has delivered the best speech I have ever heard from him with a direct appeal to the HOC to pass the deal in everyone's interests0
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Fuck me...did JRM just reference Larry Grayson's "Shut that Door".....the man is human after all...0
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Bit hard to take that line when Labour have been pestering for a statement all day.FF43 said:
Seriously, I would expect him to say, why are you insulting our intelligence by making a statement on an agreement that either doesn't exist or you don't think we deserve to see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.FF43 said:
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Did he say that?0 -
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ERG: The EU like it, therefore it is terrible.Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers has delivered the best speech I have ever heard from him with a direct appeal to the HOC to pass the deal in everyone's interests
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Not really.Richard_Nabavi said:
Bit hard to take that line when Labour have been pestering for a statement all day.FF43 said:
Seriously, I would expect him to say, why are you insulting our intelligence by making a statement on an agreement that either doesn't exist or you don't think we deserve to see.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.FF43 said:
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Did he say that?0 -
Many MP's form opinions about things without troubling to read them.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.SouthamObserver said:
Only if he’s wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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GE by end of the week?0
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Lets see what tomorrow brings.
Smoke n mirrors BREXIT.
Goodnight0 -
PM on Europarl presser now: We'll make a unilateral declaration that if we think backstop is a turd we'll bin it (my paraphrasing, obvs)0
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Unfortunately so. I had higher expectations of Starmer, but clearly I was naive.Sean_F said:
Many MP's form opinions about things without troubling to read them.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.SouthamObserver said:
Only if he’s wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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Drutt said:
PM on Europarl presser now: We'll make a unilateral declaration that if we think backstop is a turd we'll bin it (my paraphrasing, obvs)
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Solving what? Brexit Day is less than a month away for goodness sake, Parliament has to come to a decision before thenrottenborough said:GE by end of the week?
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Good, they should do that. It's not in their interests to let us keep dragging things out.Scott_P said:0 -
In substance, nothing has changed. The question now is how many MPs want to pretend that is not the case. I think it will be enough.0
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ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.0 -
Has a single word changed No siree
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His statement is interestingly ambiguous:Big_G_NorthWales said:Junckers has delivered the best speech I have ever heard from him with a direct appeal to the HOC to pass the deal in everyone's interests
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1105238043106181120?s=190 -
Junckers - No new negotiations, this is it0
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Not yet, they still think No Deal is default, that will change over the next few days as No Brexit or BINO overtakes No Deal as the likely alternative to the Dealkle4 said:
May has been hinging her hopes on that group as being very big for months. Now we'll see if those hopes were fruitless at least. Same with the occasionally rumoured 'dozens' of Labour votes which are needed even if 50+ Tories change their minds.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
It's something (or at least presented as something). That at least means people have to reconfirm their positions in light of purportedly new info, which is progress in one sense at least
It should already be real to them. When I'm standing in the path of an oncoming train it is still real when it is 500m away, not just 50m away. They know no Brexit or BINO could happen if they vote down the deal, they always haveHYUFD said:
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes realsolarflare said:
It's worked so well this far.HYUFD said:
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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May's voice has gone. Let's hope the Commission's set is glued together properly.0
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There are new words added on, so yes.bigjohnowls said:Has a single word changed No siree
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At 11pm it will be seventeen days to Brexit...HYUFD said:
Solving what? Brexit Day is less than a month away for goodness sake, Parliament has to come to a decision before thenrottenborough said:GE by end of the week?
http://daystobrexit.co.uk/0 -
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Perhaps the point is that if both parties agree publiclly on an interpretation of the WA before finally inking the deal, then it might be quite hard to challenge that interpretation subsequently ?bigjohnowls said:
What's it though?Sweeney74 said:Junker seems to think it’s legally binding
Meaningful legal assurances in complementary instrument outside of WA which is unaltered.
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I can't help feeling that starting out an agreement with one party claiming it can unilaterally renege on it isn't the most wholesome basis for a friendly future relationship, but needs must, I suppose.0
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You now have seventeen days to reach minimum safe distance...0
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Ends labour's positionBig_G_NorthWales said:Junckers - No new negotiations, this is it
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Of course they can, the government is giving Parliament the chance to overwhelmingly vote against No Deal tomorrow which it will take. Parliament will vote for extension and EUref2 or Norway Plus over No Deal, the No Deal vote will just confirm that, if the Deal is rejected then Brexit likely diesExiledInScotland said:
They can't reject no deal. It's the law. They can't force the government to drop it as you need primary legislation to do that, plus the Queen's consent which only Ministers can give. If the deal dies we will either have to revoke or leave on 29th with no deal. That's it.HYUFD said:
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes realsolarflare said:
It's worked so well this far.HYUFD said:
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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She is a fooking liability.williamglenn said:May's voice has gone. Let's hope the Commission's set is glued together properly.
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Fourteen million? What happened to the other 3.4 million Leave voters?dots said:
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.0 -
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.0
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Who knows, they are evil, shifty devils those Leave voters.Benpointer said:
Fourteen million? What happened to the other 3.4 million Leave voters?dots said:
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.0 -
What climbdown? Seriously, what am I missing?dots said:
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
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Labour mayor and former MP Tony Lloyd says on Newsnight the deal is a bad deal, despite being pro-EU in the referendum.0
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Well, on Betfair the implied probability of the deal passing by 29 March has rocketed from under 20% to about 35%.0
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Of course it's a bad deal if you're pro-EU. It takes us out of the EU.AndyJS said:Labour mayor and former MP Tony Lloyd says on Newsnight the deal is a bad deal, despite being pro-EU in the referendum.
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Labour's position ended months ago. It's just an excuse to trash the possibility of a good outcome, and always has been. If it wasn't, they'd have voted for the deal because nothing in it would prevent a future Labour government going for a closer relationship or customs union.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Ends labour's positionBig_G_NorthWales said:Junckers - No new negotiations, this is it
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Seems like it is still value.Chris said:Well, on Betfair the implied probability of the deal passing by 29 March has rocketed from under 20% to about 35%.
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I guess there is a glimmer of hope in the fact that Sammy Wilson hasn't been shooting his mouth off about this.0 -
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUPPhilip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
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All this stuff about the sanctity of our one precious union has evaporated surprisingly quickly if there are now 14m different Britains. Still, Scotland will be happy.dots said:We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
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Giving the game away that there's no intention to find a good deal to leave the EU as the referendum decided.williamglenn said:
Of course it's a bad deal if you're pro-EU. It takes us out of the EU.AndyJS said:Labour mayor and former MP Tony Lloyd says on Newsnight the deal is a bad deal, despite being pro-EU in the referendum.
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or...dots said:
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/11052409777600266270 -
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Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.0
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If she thinks that it will still lose, then this really is over for her. She got (or claims to have gotten) something, and she has no more room to ask for time to get something else.rottenborough said:
or...dots said:
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/11052409777600266270 -
The European Parliament hasn't passed this yet, has it? Have to hope they don't take the same view...Richard_Nabavi said:I can't help feeling that starting out an agreement with one party claiming it can unilaterally renege on it isn't the most wholesome basis for a friendly future relationship, but needs must, I suppose.
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Dream on.Mortimer said:Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
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If you're overs on 40 I'm unders. Betfair still says 2nd meaningful vote passing is at 9/2 or thereaboutsdots said:
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.comBenpointer said:
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’sit might squeak through climbdown today.0 -
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I'm not sure what more the EU can give quite frankly; or what May can get. The key is what Foster & Dodds make of the deal. If they approve it, the DUP will go for it. That brings along all but the ultra-die hards of the ERG.
A few Labour sprinkles, a Stephen Lloyd and bumph it is through.
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No. A good deal for a remainer is single market and customs union. This still honours the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
Giving the game away that there's no intention to find a good deal to leave the EU as the referendum decided.williamglenn said:
Of course it's a bad deal if you're pro-EU. It takes us out of the EU.AndyJS said:Labour mayor and former MP Tony Lloyd says on Newsnight the deal is a bad deal, despite being pro-EU in the referendum.
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Indeed. If Cox and the DUP back it that is good enough for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUPPhilip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc0 -
Jean-Claude Juncker as Martin Luther is an odd turn: Here I stand. I can do no other.0
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While not an indicator that they will back it, it is at least something that so far the DUP, all of them, are holding fire on their comments. Maybe they'll say it is an insulting fig leaf, maybe that is is something but not enough, but at least so far they seem willing to sleep on it.Scott_P said:0 -
Yup. Steve Baker takes the award for premature head bang prize... Surely one of the favourites to have done soBig_G_NorthWales said:
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUPPhilip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
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Interesting. They failed to make the obvious point that, under the Treaties, the WA cannot bind us permanently, since the EU has repeatedly said that the long-term relationship can only be negotiated once we've left.Scott_P said:
Still, as fudges go this isn't a bad one. Just as Northern Cyprus is simultaneously part of the EU and not part of the EU, in this new interpretation it would both be possible for the UK to exit the backstop and impossible to do so.0 -
How would another £5billion sound Nigel?Scott_P said:0 -
The truth is, May doesn’t know if this will work. Perhaps she thinks she will not.
I expect her to win tomorrow, but - even if the DUP are on board - It will be mighty close.
The idea of significant Labour abstentions is for the birds.0 -
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I imagine your view will be shared by MP's like Grant Shapps, Hugo Swire, Michael Fallon, Johnny Mercer, Sir Graham Brady, Stephen McParland, but I wonder will hold out to the bitter end.Philip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
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Someone wrote the other day that for some in the ERG (presumably Baker being a key one), May could come back with a cure for cancer, and they would still say no.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Yup. Steve Baker takes the award for premature head bang prize... Surely one of the favourites to have done soBig_G_NorthWales said:
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUPPhilip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
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It’s a gamble, for sure. But it might just work.Gardenwalker said:The truth is, May doesn’t know if this will work. Perhaps she thinks she will not.
I expect her to win tomorrow, but - even if the DUP are on board - It will be mighty close.
The idea of significant Labour abstentions is for the birds.
All contentious votes are close - Maastricht only just passed.
I’ve topped up on leaving by March 29th tonight.0 -
And does he now commit fully to a referendum given there will be no more negotiations?Scott_P said:0 -
Unilateral declaration described in the motion as:
the unilateral declaration by the UK titled ‘Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol’, setting out the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily;0 -
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I got 6-1 earlier..... Need the dup to bring home the bacon...Philip_Thompson said:
Seems like it is still value.Chris said:Well, on Betfair the implied probability of the deal passing by 29 March has rocketed from under 20% to about 35%.
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This is just a face-saving fudge. There was clearly always the possibility of abrogating on the basis of the other party not acting in good faith. Today's announcement and the unilateral declaration make it no easier to take that step, should the government of the day ever feel the need to.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed. If Cox and the DUP back it that is good enough for me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUPPhilip_Thompson said:If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.0 -
If 2016 is re run tomorrow leave will get at least fourteen million votes is what i’m Saying. What are you saying.El_Capitano said:
All this stuff about the sanctity of our one precious union has evaporated surprisingly quickly if there are now 14m different Britains. Still, Scotland will be happy.dots said:We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
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There's no fucking change. How can anyone possibly change their mind based on this.
There has been no change since December 2018!
What is this ludicrous dance we have embraced.
Nothing. Changes.0 -
Why would they not? The remain ultras are no different to the leaver ultras.rottenborough said:0