politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn harking back to LAB’s GE2017 vote share is no solution

AndyJS said:

"I'm a liberal Tory and a member of the ERG. How dare the splitters call me an extremist
Michael Fabricant"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/20/liberal-tory-member-erg-dare-splitters-call-extremist/

'O would some power the gift to give us to see ourselves as others see us'

Sandpit said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Dominic Grieve confirms on Newsnight he would leave the Tory Party if No Deal

Grieve's own actions make No Deal more likely, so he's seeking a pretext to leave the party.

And with the government and the EU clearly expecting each other to blink at the last minute, it could well happen by accident.

That depends on what Parliament votes for, even if it does not vote for the Deal it is still likely to vote for a permanent Customs Union over No Deal and the EU would agree to that

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Dominic Grieve confirms on Newsnight he would leave the Tory Party if No Deal

Grieve's own actions make No Deal more likely, so he's seeking a pretext to leave the party.

I think Grieve is a Conservative, though.

On everything except Brexit. The regret and respect response yesterday may well keep him in the tent for now but May obviously can’t count on his vote for anything Brexit related.

All of which makes me wonder how different the political landscape might look in a month if May gets her deal through and we finally start to move on. I think Soubry in particular might regret her decision yesterday.

May's deal simply resets the argument to the beginning with another two years for us all to enjoy hearing it.

In theory yes but in reality I think that we will find that much of the "transition" becomes permanent. Which I personally am reasonably happy with.

So the only way we actually leave is that we no longer have MEPs and representation at the meetings, while we have to meekly accept every new regulation they throw at us?

And we will no longer be in the CAP, the CFP, will no longer have FoM (although immigration is unlikely to fall much given our shortage of labour), will have much greater discretion and accountability in social and employment matters, there will be no direct effect regulations, we will not be subject to the CJEU, our responsibility to implement directives will be limited to SM issues and we will have a choice, albeit a choice with significant consequences if we don't. Its a soft Brexit but no one will be able to say May has not delivered Brexit.

My guess is that we will end up with the CU as well, its just too damn convenient, but that will be the trickiest bit for May to sell.

But all of those things continue as-is during the transition period though, the deal (if agreed) takes effect from after the transition period finishes. So an indefinite transition would still leave us paying in billions a year and subject to freedom of movement.

That is not my reading of the WA. Existing rights are protected but there is not unlimited FoM thereafter. But I need to go so I can't quote chapter and verse right now.

I thought it was that FOM continued until the end of the transition period, as opposed to March 29th.

Less time on here today is probably better for most of us, not sure too much work got done yesterday! No more defections today please.

Pike put in his place:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1098499678323249152

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1098500080519258113

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1098498869841854464

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1098499964278329344

AndyJS said:

"I'm a liberal Tory and a member of the ERG. How dare the splitters call me an extremist
Michael Fabricant"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/20/liberal-tory-member-erg-dare-splitters-call-extremist/

Because not all ERGers are the same but the larger group of them are extremists. Sorry fabbers

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098489038095478784

Boo. We've not had a defection in 22 hours, I'm bored.

Morning all,

Why is Justine Greening trending on twitter? Have I missed an announcement?

MarqueeMark said:

Nigelb said:

edmundintokyo said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Dominic Grieve confirms on Newsnight he would leave the Tory Party if No Deal

Grieve's own actions make No Deal more likely, so he's seeking a pretext to leave the party.

I think Grieve is a Conservative, though.

On everything except Brexit. The regret and respect response yesterday may well keep him in the tent for now but May obviously can’t count on his vote for anything Brexit related.

All of which makes me wonder how different the political landscape might look in a month if May gets her deal through and we finally start to move on. I think Soubry in particular might regret her decision yesterday.

There's no moving on, all the difficult decisions have been punted into the next two years.

The Tory response to the defections thus far seems to be to pretend that nothing of any importance has happened.

Pretend?

QED.

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

Why is Justine Greening trending on twitter? Have I missed an announcement?

No but hopefully you're about to

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

Why is Justine Greening trending on twitter? Have I missed an announcement?

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1098481480119013377

CarlottaVance said:

They're going to keep being asked this:

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1098478725312757761

Why is there a Labour split hashtag but not a Conservative one? Surely the same question applies to the blue defectors? #MediaBias and have you noticed LBC is only one letter away from BBC? #TinFoil #LizardPeople

Momentum To Launch Ground Campaign Against Labour Defectors

The grassroots organisation that helped propel Jeremy Corbyn to the leadership will stage events with “celebrities” in the constituencies of those who have split.
Laura Parker, Momentum’s national coordinator, slammed the defectors, including Chuka Umunna, for “working hand-in-hand with the Tories”.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/momentum-to-launch-ground-campaign-against-labour-defectors_uk_5c6d5c21e4b0e37a1ed3891c

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098489038095478784

Boo. We've not had a defection in 22 hours, I'm bored.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1098498869841854464

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1098499964278329344

Is it ironic that after all the hilarity of the Corbynite loyalty pledge that went around last week that many many mps on both sides in effect need to make a loyalty pledge or else have people think they might split?

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/1098312833580834816

the Brighton Kemptown MP also revealed Corbyn had come under huge pressure “behind closed doors” from MPs over the walkouts and was now “edging” towards a new “remain and reform” Brexit policy.

“I am almost certain, when the votes come, that we will be in a position of remaining in and reforming the EU – and those scabs that left will suddenly regret the day that they ever left the Labour Party.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-split-scabs-will-regret-it-says-corbyn-ally-lloyd-russell-moyle_uk_5c6dc41be4b0f40774cba687?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

Charles said:

GreenHeron said:

On the TIGgers, I agree with those who feel that May will get her deal through. As long as No Deal is the alternative then she will win a vote, and may even get some concessions to ease the passage.

I'd go one step further and suggest that the TIGgers already expect this to happen, and their strategy is to supplant Labour as the major opposition with the primary aim of rejoining.

.

I think that’s spot on

Wollaston, Allen and Soubry are being played. It would be great for them to return to the fold - I suspect Allen will become a LibDem, Wollaston an independent and Soubry will end up a Tory peer,

None of them will be MPs after the next election

The Tory Three seem, politically, to have got themselves bent way out of shape by their hatred of Brexit. If we had voted to Remain, I doubt any of the three would have made a move. That they were all elected within the past two years on a manifesto commitment to implement Brexit might make their inner turmoil easier to understand. But ethically, it's much harder to see they can just carry on as MPs without offering themselves up for immediate re-election. They are currently sat in the House of Commons under false pretences. Not many other jobs where you could behave as they have done and yet continue to draw your salary.

From the soundbites I've heard from Allen et al, it's not just the Brexit vote: it's the fact that Brexit has utterly consumed government, and the backwards-looking, navel-gazing right-wing tendency so eloquently evoked by JRM and his fellow winnets is in control.

This government is not a conservative government. It's barely a Conservative government. Some might say it's not even a government ...

In Allen's case, it's down to being centre-left in outlook (not a left-wing Conservative) and joining a centr-right party by mistake.

Her pitch yesterday was clearly to her constituency - sounding like a Lib Dem - she's also provided the headline 'Destroy the Tory Party' which will make the return of the conservative Conservative Soubry much more difficult.

I’m not losing too much sleep over Wollaston and Allen.

Soubry and Grieve are Conservatives, though, if not precisely from my wing, so I can only conclude Brexit is driving them out.

Wollaston has been in the wrong party all along. But thoughtful Conservatives ought to ponder Heidi Allen. There are a lot of people like her around in business nowadays. And very few of them are joining the Tories. Why do think that is? It is pretty obvious to me.

Off topic, but as this thread will surely die soon, I feel compelled to state that Heidi Allen is simply gorgeous.

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098489038095478784

Boo. We've not had a defection in 22 hours, I'm bored.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1098498869841854464

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1098499964278329344

Is it ironic that after all the hilarity of the Corbynite loyalty pledge that went around last week that many many mps on both sides in effect need to make a loyalty pledge or else have people think they might split?

and the numpty journalist will have to phone them all up again tomorrow

Recidivist said:

Big picture. The 2017 vote share is likely to become something the left go on about for the next fifty years. The Brexit effect will be forgotten. It will be much like the way the 1983 result got trotted out to prove that left wing policies repel voters, forgetting the Falklands and the Alliance had quite a lot to do with it.

An interesting example of how the Falklands War - which had little or no effect on the 1983 general election - became an alibi for the Left.

The Tories were back in the lead in several polls during the early months of 1982. Indeed, one on the 5th February (admittedly a clear outlier) had them very close to their actual 83 vote share. The overall trend was however clearly one of steady improvement long before Galtieri's act of insanity.

Moreover, the SDP probably took a large number of votes from the Tories, as discussed on these threads a few days ago, while providing a home for many who would otherwise have abstained. It might have been an even worse defeat for Labour without them. But the Labour party doesn't want to admit that truth.

As with 1983 so with 2017. Corbyn's surprisingly high vote share doesn't prove left wing policies are popular. In fact, rather the reverse. It proves they can't beat a divided and exhausted government with an unpopular manifesto running on a divisive and controversial main policy.

But Labour under Corbyn will unfortunately keep kidding themselves 'one more heave and then we can embezzle lots of money to make ourselves rich like Chavez did have true Socialism.' And will keep losing as a result.

tlg86 said:

... I think voting to leave the EU was marginally a left of centre thing to do (even if most of the leave voters are probably to the right of centre).

I think you can make the case that the EU has primarily been run in the interests of big business, and one of the justifications for the single market is that it creates a larger home market to make it easier for big pan-European businesses to develop, so this seems relatively explicit.

However, I think this has been a choice, and is not inherent in the existence of a Union of European nations At a fundamental level I think that co-operating across existing national boundaries is something that is very much in line with the underlying principles of the left - "workers of the world unite" and all that. So I see Brexit as very much a right-wing project.

A confident and strong European trade union movement would have done more to organise at a European level, but instead they are trapped in competing with each other to defend jobs in country A rather than country B. Most employers do not have these internal tensions in their management and so can have the upper hand against their employees. The left have been on the defensive for so long that they've forgotten how to be hopeful about new opportunities and to be imaginative about using them for their advantage.

Brexit in 878 hours and 20 minutes.

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Tory Three seem, politically, to have got themselves bent way out of shape by their hatred of Brexit. If we had voted to Remain, I doubt any of the three would have made a move. That they were all elected within the past two years on a manifesto commitment to implement Brexit might make their inner turmoil easier to understand. But ethically, it's much harder to see they can just carry on as MPs without offering themselves up for immediate re-election. They are currently sat in the House of Commons under false pretences. Not many other jobs where you could behave as they have done and yet continue to draw your salary.

From the soundbites I've heard from Allen et al, it's not just the Brexit vote: it's the fact that Brexit has utterly consumed government, and the backwards-looking, navel-gazing right-wing tendency so eloquently evoked by JRM and his fellow winnets is in control.

This government is not a conservative government. It's barely a Conservative government. Some might say it's not even a government ...

In Allen's case, it's down to being centre-left in outlook (not a left-wing Conservative) and joining a centr-right party by mistake.

Her pitch yesterday was clearly to her constituency - sounding like a Lib Dem - she's also provided the headline 'Destroy the Tory Party' which will make the return of the conservative Conservative Soubry much more difficult.

I’m not losing too much sleep over Wollaston and Allen.

Soubry and Grieve are Conservatives, though, if not precisely from my wing, so I can only conclude Brexit is driving them out.

Wollaston has been in the wrong party all along. But thoughtful Conservatives ought to ponder Heidi Allen. There are a lot of people like her around in business nowadays. And very few of them are joining the Tories. Why do think that is? It is pretty obvious to me.

It is. The Conservatives are no longer the party of business, and have mutated into the party of fuck business in thrall to an unhinged monomania.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1098496159381893120

Except that Hammond is not the Conservative party - and is regularly derided as a traitor by the ultras.
His position is not entirely unlike that of (say) Tom Watson.

IanB2 said:

the Brighton Kemptown MP also revealed Corbyn had come under huge pressure “behind closed doors” from MPs over the walkouts and was now “edging” towards a new “remain and reform” Brexit policy.

“I am almost certain, when the votes come, that we will be in a position of remaining in and reforming the EU – and those scabs that left will suddenly regret the day that they ever left the Labour Party.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-split-scabs-will-regret-it-says-corbyn-ally-lloyd-russell-moyle_uk_5c6dc41be4b0f40774cba687?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter

Switching from leave to remain woukd be huge indeed. But remain and reform is a nonsense. The EU would meaningfully reform when we threatened to quit, they sure as shit won't do so when we return with tail between our legs. It's remain and shut up.

CarlottaVance said:

Pike put in his place:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1098499678323249152

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1098500080519258113

Paul Waugh is talking absolute fucking shit in that second tweet. The 2021 QNLZ EASTPAC deployment decision was taken over a year ago and, as it involves the cooperation of the USMC, French Navy and Dutch Navy, is already in the planning stage.

Having said that, the Fireplace Salesman has turned it into a political problem where none existed so it might end up being curtailed to an Indian Ocean deployment. This would also save a lot of money and solve the RAF/RN air wing harmony regs problem.

OblitusSumMe said:

However, I think this has been a choice, and is not inherent in the existence of a Union of European nations At a fundamental level I think that co-operating across existing national boundaries is something that is very much in line with the underlying principles of the left - "workers of the world unite" and all that. So I see Brexit as very much a right-wing project.

This.

SouthamObserver said:

The child suffers by being deprived of its mother. Sajid knows this, but wants to be the leader of the Conservative party.

The whole thing is ridiculous because she will inevitably end up back here anyway. All Javid is doing by playing to the gallery is increasing the amount the taxpayer will have to fork out to protect her and her son from vigilantes. She has no legal right to be in Syria, and the Bangladeshis are absolutely right to refuse to have her. The idea that we can simply expel people we don't like and expect some other country to take them is just arrogant colonial era thinking. (If anyone is struggling to understand why the Bangladeshis don't see her as their problem, imagine she was Australian and her parents had emigrated to Australia from the UK decades ago; how many PB reactionaries would be arguing for her to come here?)

AlastairMeeks said:

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Tory Three seem, politically, to have got themselves bent way out of shape by their hatred of Brexit. If we had voted to Remain, I doubt any of the three would have made a move. That they were all elected within the past two years on a manifesto commitment to implement Brexit might make their inner turmoil easier to understand. But ethically, it's much harder to see they can just carry on as MPs without offering themselves up for immediate re-election. They are currently sat in the House of Commons under false pretences. Not many other jobs where you could behave as they have done and yet continue to draw your salary.

From the soundbites I've heard from Allen et al, it's not just the Brexit vote: it's the fact that Brexit has utterly consumed government, and the backwards-looking, navel-gazing right-wing tendency so eloquently evoked by JRM and his fellow winnets is in control.

This government is not a conservative government. It's barely a Conservative government. Some might say it's not even a government ...

In Allen's case, it's down to being centre-left in outlook (not a left-wing Conservative) and joining a centr-right party by mistake.

Her pitch yesterday was clearly to her constituency - sounding like a Lib Dem - she's also provided the headline 'Destroy the Tory Party' which will make the return of the conservative Conservative Soubry much more difficult.

I’m not losing too much sleep over Wollaston and Allen.

Soubry and Grieve are Conservatives, though, if not precisely from my wing, so I can only conclude Brexit is driving them out.

Wollaston has been in the wrong party all along. But thoughtful Conservatives ought to ponder Heidi Allen. There are a lot of people like her around in business nowadays. And very few of them are joining the Tories. Why do think that is? It is pretty obvious to me.

It is. The Conservatives are no longer the party of business, and have mutated into the party of fuck business in thrall to an unhinged monomania.

Yes exactly. But none of the Conservatives I know in real life see it.

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Dominic Grieve confirms on Newsnight he would leave the Tory Party if No Deal

Grieve's own actions make No Deal more likely, so he's seeking a pretext to leave the party.

I think Grieve is a Conservative, though.

On everything except Brexit. The regret and respect response yesterday may well keep him in the tent for now but May obviously can’t count on his vote for anything Brexit related.

All of which makes me wonder how different the political landscape might look in a month if May gets her deal through and we finally start to move on. I think Soubry in particular might regret her decision yesterday.

Her basic pitch seems to be that the Tories have moved well to the right. That won’t change after 29th March. At some point the FTA negotiations will begin. They will be even more all-encompassing and will lead to big rows on any number of issues, including immigration - an issue that Soubry feels very strongly about.

But, Brexit apart (which is not really a left/right issue at all) what is the evidence for that? This government has yet to find a problem to which more public spending is not the answer. The last 2 budgets have abandoned any pretense of austerity. As a result the overall tax burden edges up rather than down and deficit reduction is in the lap of economic growth.

Does anyone seriously think we are not going to see more of this? It is quite clear that Amber Rudd does not believe for a minute that UC is fit for purpose in its current form. We have got the recent decision by Javid but does anyone really think that any responsible Home Secretary could do anything else? The government seems more focused on Ed Miliband's manifesto than their own.

Brexit is very much a left/right issue. The political voices in favour are overwhelmingly reactionary nationalists.

I disagree that it is very much a left/right issue, but as a leave voter myself, I think voting to leave the EU was marginally a left of centre thing to do (even if most of the leave voters are probably to the right of centre).

I agree that the Brexit divide is neither entirely orthogonal to, nor entirely in line with the left/right divide.

But to call it marginally a left of centre thing is like describing a room filled only with ERGers and Momentum members as marginally to the right or left of centre.

AlastairMeeks said:

Recidivist said:

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

The Tory Three seem, politically, to have got themselves bent way out of shape by their hatred of Brexit. If we had voted to Remain, I doubt any of the three would have made a move. That they were all elected within the past two years on a manifesto commitment to implement Brexit might make their inner turmoil easier to understand. But ethically, it's much harder to see they can just carry on as MPs without offering themselves up for immediate re-election. They are currently sat in the House of Commons under false pretences. Not many other jobs where you could behave as they have done and yet continue to draw your salary.

From the soundbites I've heard from Allen et al, it's not just the Brexit vote: it's the fact that Brexit has utterly consumed government, and the backwards-looking, navel-gazing right-wing tendency so eloquently evoked by JRM and his fellow winnets is in control.

This government is not a conservative government. It's barely a Conservative government. Some might say it's not even a government ...

In Allen's case, it's down to being centre-left in outlook (not a left-wing Conservative) and joining a centr-right party by mistake.

Her pitch yesterday was clearly to her constituency - sounding like a Lib Dem - she's also provided the headline 'Destroy the Tory Party' which will make the return of the conservative Conservative Soubry much more difficult.

I’m not losing too much sleep over Wollaston and Allen.

Soubry and Grieve are Conservatives, though, if not precisely from my wing, so I can only conclude Brexit is driving them out.

Wollaston has been in the wrong party all along. But thoughtful Conservatives ought to ponder Heidi Allen. There are a lot of people like her around in business nowadays. And very few of them are joining the Tories. Why do think that is? It is pretty obvious to me.

It is. The Conservatives are no longer the party of business, and have mutated into the party of fuck business in thrall to an unhinged monomania.

I have to agree with this. There gets to a point where Brexit, certainly the one pursued by the ERG is leading to the costs being far greater than the gains.

I still believe that we should not be part of the political construct of the EU, but we should seek all the economic advantages which work for us. Which means both the customs union and the single market.. Thats what we need to work for. So if the choice is no-deal or remain. It should be remain.

CarlottaVance said:

Home secretary Sajid Javid yesterday left the door open for Islamic State bride Shamima Begum's baby boy to come to Britain.

He told the Commons Begum’s ban from returning to Britain will have no impact on her baby son’s nationality.


Javid said: “Children should not suffer. So, if a parent does lose their British citizenship, it does not affect the rights of their child.”

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/isis-bride-shamima-begums-son-14028953

So the baby can come to Britain on its own? Javid's policy on this is moving from the indefensible to the ridiculous.

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Dominic Grieve confirms on Newsnight he would leave the Tory Party if No Deal

Grieve's own actions make No Deal more likely, so he's seeking a pretext to leave the party.

I think Grieve is a Conservative, though.

On everything except Brexit. The regret and respect response yesterday may well keep him in the tent for now but May obviously can’t count on his vote for anything Brexit related.

All of which makes me wonder how different the political landscape might look in a month if May gets her deal through and we finally start to move on. I think Soubry in particular might regret her decision yesterday.

Her basic pitch seems to be that the Tories have moved well to the right. That won’t change after 29th March. At some point the FTA negotiations will begin. They will be even more all-encompassing and will lead to big rows on any number of issues, including immigration - an issue that Soubry feels very strongly about.

But, Brexit apart (which is not really a left/right issue at all) what is the evidence for that? This government has yet to find a problem to which more public spending is not the answer. The last 2 budgets have abandoned any pretense of austerity. As a result the overall tax burden edges up rather than down and deficit reduction is in the lap of economic growth.

Does anyone seriously think we are not going to see more of this? It is quite clear that Amber Rudd does not believe for a minute that UC is fit for purpose in its current form. We have got the recent decision by Javid but does anyone really think that any responsible Home Secretary could do anything else? The government seems more focused on Ed Miliband's manifesto than their own.

Brexit is very much a left/right issue. The political voices in favour are overwhelmingly reactionary nationalists.

I disagree that it is very much a left/right issue, but as a leave voter myself, I think voting to leave the EU was marginally a left of centre thing to do (even if most of the leave voters are probably to the right of centre).

The UK population is overwhelmingly politically moderate - its Overton window so to speak is not gigantic. One of the things that has gone wrong right now is that many have stopped seeing the most important issue of our day - Brexit - as a difficult democratic political issue between people who are moderates. Dialogue has been replaced by the language of extremism. Not a good idea.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Bergmann_Mat/status/1098492130648080384

So you're saying a country must not be allowed to do things because others disapprove and only remaining is acceptable. Helpful.

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Dominic Grieve confirms on Newsnight he would leave the Tory Party if No Deal

Grieve's own actions make No Deal more likely, so he's seeking a pretext to leave the party.

I think Grieve is a Conservative, though.

On everything except Brexit. The regret and respect response yesterday may well keep him in the tent for now but May obviously can’t count on his vote for anything Brexit related.

All of which makes me wonder how different the political landscape might look in a month if May gets her deal through and we finally start to move on. I think Soubry in particular might regret her decision yesterday.

Her basic pitch seems to be that the Tories have moved well to the right. That won’t change after 29th March. At some point the FTA negotiations will begin. They will be even more all-encompassing and will lead to big rows on any number of issues, including immigration - an issue that Soubry feels very strongly about.

But, Brexit apart (which is not really a left/right issue at all) what is the evidence for that? This government has yet to find a problem to which more public spending is not the answer. The last 2 budgets have abandoned any pretense of austerity. As a result the overall tax burden edges up rather than down and deficit reduction is in the lap of economic growth.

Does anyone seriously think we are not going to see more of this? It is quite clear that Amber Rudd does not believe for a minute that UC is fit for purpose in its current form. We have got the recent decision by Javid but does anyone really think that any responsible Home Secretary could do anything else? The government seems more focused on Ed Miliband's manifesto than their own.

Brexit apart is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Earlier this week Sajid Javid essentially decided to deprive a days old, entirely innocent baby of its right to be brought up in the UK because he wants to lead the Conservative party. He knows his constituency, as does Anna Soubry.

A baby born in Syria to a Dutch father and a mother who clearly feels no loyalty to Britain. Sometimes parental choices have consequences. This is one of those times.

Slackbladder said:

IanB2 said:

and those scabs that left will suddenly regret the day that they ever left the Labour Party.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-split-scabs-will-regret-it-says-corbyn-ally-lloyd-russell-moyle_uk_5c6dc41be4b0f40774cba687?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter

That'll be the 'listening' exercise going well.

Lloyd Russell Moyle epitomises everything that is wrong with the current Labour Party. Entitled, arrogant, greedy, not very bright and filled with deep loathing for anyone who doesn't slavishly follow the party line (ironically this has included him on occasion as he's well to the left of Corbyn on things like housing).

But that also means we shouldn't pay much attention to him. It would be like quoting Hollobone's views on Tory defectors after he's had five neat whiskies in four minutes.

kle4 said:

Slackbladder said:

IanB2 said:

and those scabs that left will suddenly regret the day that they ever left the Labour Party.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-split-scabs-will-regret-it-says-corbyn-ally-lloyd-russell-moyle_uk_5c6dc41be4b0f40774cba687?ncid=other_twitter_cooo9wqtham&utm_campaign=share_twitter

That'll be the 'listening' exercise going well.

But it would be - if the party switched to backing remain far fewer woukd want to split.

It's the same old bollocks from Corbyn which he's been spinning for years.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

Why is Justine Greening trending on twitter? Have I missed an announcement?

Justine Greening has confirmed she will quit the Tories if No Deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47313366

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

Why is Justine Greening trending on twitter? Have I missed an announcement?

Justine Greening has confirmed she will quit the Tories if No Deal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47313366

Greening has to jump before her local party pushes her.

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1098139734176686080

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1098139734176686080

Spot on

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Pike put in his place:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1098499678323249152

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1098500080519258113

Paul Waugh is talking absolute fucking shit in that second tweet. The 2021 QNLZ EASTPAC deployment decision was taken over a year ago and, as it involves the cooperation of the USMC, French Navy and Dutch Navy, is already in the planning stage.

In fairness to Mr Waugh, he's quoting Mr Hammond.

https://twitter.com/Howard_Goodall/status/1098241690622660610

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Bergmann_Mat/status/1098492130648080384

So you're saying a country must not be allowed to do things because others disapprove and only remaining is acceptable. Helpful.

I think our friends are pointing out that our course of action is inadvisable. As good friends ought to do.

Scott is saying only remaining can be acceptable. We would continue to be friends with our friends if we left, and yes it would be more difficult but the Scott's of the world act like no one will even talk to the UK afterwards. The world talks and works with far worse.

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1098506401624870912?s=21

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:

IanB2 said:

There was however a build up to the war - it wasn't a complete surprise - and the complete switch in the news agenda helped puncture the SDP's balloon.

Edit/ but you are certainly right that psephological analysis suggests that without the SDP the Tory landslide could well have been bigger

You are suggesting that the Thatcher government's chronic mishandling of Galtieri's much-telegraphed intentions to assault the Falklands boosted their support?

I have to say I feel this is a novel conclusion.

I am saying that the news focus was turning towards the Falklands before the actual invasion. As I recall there was that incident with the scrap metal merchants occupying one of the uninhabited islands a few weeks prior. And all the sabre rattling in Argentina.

The Franks Report largely exonerated the government although there is no denying that the planned withdrawal of HMS Endurance was interpreted by the Argentinians as Britain not giving a fuck about the F.I.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Howard_Goodall/status/1098241690622660610

Byelections andreferenda are not The same thing, that is such a lame attempt. I don't say we cannot revisit it and even I know that's lame. You really cannot help yourself

Mr. P, that argument does work both ways.

That said, MPs changing party is a different kettle of fish to the referendum. Also, voters elect an individual. The party may be a motivating factor, but the election is not handing over the seat to a party who then determines the MP, but handing the seat over to an individual.

That's the way the system works.

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1098506401624870912?s=21

Well it's certainly preferable for TIG than the converse, but I wouldn't have thought it was a strong determinant.

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1098506401624870912?s=21

Well it's certainly preferable for TIG than the converse, but I wouldn't have thought it was a strong determinant.

This has all the hallmarks of a flash in the pan, doesn’t it?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. P, that argument does work both ways.

Are you in favour of democracy or not?

You can't say people must have a right to vote, and NOT have a right to vote at the same time.

IanB2 said:

Mortimer said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1098506401624870912?s=21

Well it's certainly preferable for TIG than the converse, but I wouldn't have thought it was a strong determinant.

This has all the hallmarks of a flash in the pan, doesn’t it?

If it were just the politicians playing games in Westminster, without the general disillusion with politics in general and the main parties in particular, possibly so. But - as many here have been saying for a long time - the wider political environment looks ripe for some sort of realignment.

Just not by these people.....