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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    Obvious next lib dem leader
    And ensure swathes of people will never consider voting for the closet Tory Lib Dems?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dixiedean said:

    Was watching the 64 election a while back. They said the election would turn on the East Anglian marginals...how times change.
    Massive demographic change in rural Norfolk over the intervening decades. The Agicultural Workers Union made Labour competitive in rural seats until the early 1970s. Kings Lynn was a key marginal - as was Yarmouth. On the other hand, the Tories are now weaker in Norwich City . . Lowestoft remained Tory in 1964 against the national swing due to a strong personal vote for Jim Prior - though Waveney was Labour-held 1997 - 2010.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited February 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Though Allen, Soubry, and Wollaston have sought to force a choice between No Deal and No Brexit. They have compromised over nothing. They can't complain that No Deal is now an option.
    I suppose they have built a firewall around themselves if No Deal Brexit happens. I don't think it is in their gift to change the outcome of Brexit as they number too few at the moment.

    On strategy it will be interesting to see the next move from ERG + DUP!
  • Chris Gayle could do with laying off the red stripes....I’ve seen darts players move faster to retrieve their darts tha Gayle chasing the ball in the field.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited February 2019

    I suppose they have built a firewall around themselves if No Deal Brexit happens. I don't think it is in their gift to change the outcome of Brexit as they number too few at the moment. On strategy it will be interesting to see the next move from ERG + DUP!
    Probably dig in their heels even further - after all, May needs their votes even more now, and they have the potential to take far more MPs with them if they were to flounce out. No deal remains very much the favourite, since the fact May cannot give them anything they might accept has not changed. Only the EU suddenly capitulating on something can make it not the favourite, and that'd be optimistic to expect.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    edited February 2019
    Following on from recent events, I watched the first episode of G.B.H. this evening (for the first time since it was originally broadcast). I know it is a drama - but it is based in the reality of Labour politics of the 1980s. The thugs depicted on top of the school buildings are the 80s equivalent of the current mob of online haters - the parallels of left wing intimidation of the past to what is seen today is quite striking (!) and scary at the same time.

    Hatton may have been suspended - but his fellow travellers are running the show. And that is a lesson people should not be allowed to forget.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jonathan said:

    Jeremy and the hard left have their betrayal narrative. An excuse for defeat that will sustain the myths.

    Of course, we'd all much rather they were screaming betrayal in a few years than blaming the rolling blackouts, 1,000,000% inflation rate and national bog roll shortage on the Americans, whilst their still-foetuses-in-the-womb future successors were already preparing to say "But it wasn't REAL socialism!"

    One can but pray.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    The Sun at Feering. The Bell in the same village. The Chapel or the Woolpack in Coggeshall. The Old Crown at Messing.

    Windies have just dropped another catch.
    Thanks.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,523

    Chris Gayle could do with laying off the red stripes....I’ve seen darts players move faster to retrieve their darts tha Gayle chasing the ball in the field.

    So far they're not a patch on England, are they. Fielding-wise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    That’s not true. Soubra consistently pushed for a single market plus customs union Brexit until fairly recently.
    She's voted against the government at every opportunity.
  • Modern ODI really is something else. England have cruises to 200 off 26 overs. At that kind of clip if they had to get 450 it wouldn’t be impossible.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Anyone have a link for John Mann’s comments? I checked out the tape someone posted up thread but the time stamp only led to some very mundane Scottish debate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,442
    Sean_F said:

    She's voted against the government at every opportunity.
    And how many opportunities has the government given ?

    This mess is about May’s stubbornness and procrastination.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    Probably dig in their heels even further - after all, May needs their votes even more now, and they have the potential to take far more MPs with them if they were to flounce out. No deal remains very much the favourite, since the fact May cannot give them anything they might accept has not changed. Only the EU suddenly capitulating on something can make it not the favourite, and that'd be optimistic to expect.
    I suspect you are probably correct about No Deal. The ERG seem to have adopted the DUP strategy on getting their own way.

    I wonder how much they organise and plan strategy together? They must collude pretty deeply together on a lot of issues and especially No Deal Brexit.
  • Modern ODI really is something else. England have cruises to 200 off 26 overs. At that kind of clip if they had to get 450 it wouldn’t be impossible.

    Then you remember that England's two best batsmen haven't batted yet.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Awful shot by Roy and gone
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,320

    Modern ODI really is something else. England have cruises to 200 off 26 overs. At that kind of clip if they had to get 450 it wouldn’t be impossible.

    You can take the blame for the next wicket to fall for that one!
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Proper top slicer, yuk
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone have a link for John Mann’s comments? I checked out the tape someone posted up thread but the time stamp only led to some very mundane Scottish debate.

    https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/26a6adbe-141a-48d2-bafa-c8686b9093c5

    At 18.24
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited February 2019

    Then you remember that England's two best batsmen haven't batted yet.
    Well they are now....off to conservative home you go!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,320

    Then you remember that England's two best batsmen haven't batted yet.
    Rashid and Plunkett aren't that good.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone have a link for John Mann’s comments? I checked out the tape someone posted up thread but the time stamp only led to some very mundane Scottish debate.

    The link works. Scroll down through the time-stamped contributions on the right-hand side of the page until you get to "18:28:22 John Mann MP (Bassetlaw, Labour)"
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Don’t go on Peston Javid, its a trap.

    ITV twisted your policy on early evening bulletin on basis you and experts had a plan in place you shredded after a weeks trail by media.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,523
    Bother. Roy out. Could have done without losing a wicket.
  • Well they are now....off to conservative home you go!
    Nah Morgan and Buttler aren't batting yet.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    Stop it. You are putting OGH at risk.

    (And making yourself look ridiculous.)
    So when do you expect the snivelling little coward to repeat himself without protection?

    Not sure why you don't have an answer, surely brave John will do so any second?
  • Modern ODI really is something else. England have cruises to 200 off 26 overs. At that kind of clip if they had to get 450 it wouldn’t be impossible.

    The old rule of thumb used to be (don't know if it still is) that par is getting 50% of the target by the 30th over. Get the remaining 50% in final 20 overs.

    We've gotten well over half by the 25th over.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    I think wise council is for you to let this go, as said by other posters
    Let me guess you think John won't repeat his accusations without protection but want to stick up for John because he attacks Corbyn. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,320

    The link works. Scroll down through the time-stamped contributions on the right-hand side of the page until you get to "18:28:22 John Mann MP (Bassetlaw, Labour)"
    No it doesn't. I click on the time stamp and nothing happens. It's very frustrating.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,523

    Nah Morgan and Buttler aren't batting yet.
    Morgan is now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,320

    Bother. Roy out. Could have done without losing a wicket.

    I told you @FrancisUrquhart would own this.

    Just watch them collapse like a House of Cards now...
  • Glad to see The Jezziah showing his support for Jezbollah's Kinder, Gentler Politics by acting like a petulant teenager screeching on about snivelling cowards
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    Following on from recent events, I watched the first episode of G.B.H. this evening (for the first time since it was originally broadcast). I know it is a drama - but it is based in the reality of Labour politics of the 1980s. The thugs depicted on top of the school buildings are the 80s equivalent of the current mob of online haters - the parallels of left wing intimidation of the past to what is seen today is quite striking (!) and scary at the same time.

    Hatton may have been suspended - but his fellow travellers are running the show. And that is a lesson people should not be allowed to forget.

    Absolutely. I've been recommending GBH on here and on Twitter for months. The parallels are really striking.

    ...though if you take them literally, the later episodes raise all sorts of questions given that Corbyn could be said, like Michael Murray, to be an easily dupable "useful idiot"...

    10 points for spotting a young Anna Friel and another 10 points for the narrator of Thomas the Tank Engine and Friends.
  • Let me guess you think John won't repeat his accusations without protection but want to stick up for John because he attacks Corbyn. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
    Have you listened to his comments
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    ydoethur said:

    So Labour MP made statements laying themselves wide open to ridicule today.

    One is an insignificant backbench MP at odds with the party, whom everyone sane thinks is a racist coward, liar and failure.

    the MP for Bassetlaw.

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
    FTFY ;)
  • ydoethur said:

    No it doesn't. I click on the time stamp and nothing happens. It's very frustrating.
    Slide the bar to 18.28
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    edited February 2019
    eek said:

    Fitch May be cutting the UK’s credit rating from AA

    Remember when everyone was obsessed about the UK's AAA rating?

    Those were the days... :D
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    No it doesn't. I click on the time stamp and nothing happens. It's very frustrating.
    Try pressing the pause button at the bottom of the video and then pressing play again. That's what I had to do to get it to wake up.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Have you listened to his comments
    I have been polite and already answered your question, I will do so again. Yes I have.

    I expect you will now be polite and answer my question.

    Do you expect John to repeat his accusations somewhere he can't make untrue accusations without consequence (like outside the commons)?

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited February 2019
    No Defection this evening?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Slide the bar to 18.28

    Slide the bar to 18.28
    As I say, that’s Scottish questions, no sign of John Mann.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,523
    Root's been dropped.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Hales 95.65

    Root 86.43

    So largely comparable, especially when you consider Hales opens when there are fielding restrictions in place.
    Mann 18.24. But can spin better than Ali
  • ydoethur said:

    I told you @FrancisUrquhart would own this.

    Just watch them collapse like a House of Cards now...
    Comment on the Guardian "England only have Stokes, Buttler, Mooen, Woakes, Rashid and Plunkett to come. "
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Assuming the West Indies continue to field Beadle-handedly, Root gets to 5000 ODI runs today and he's the 4th-fastest to do so ever. Seven runs to go.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,148
    GIN1138 said:

    Remember when everyone was obsessed about the UK's AAA rating?

    Those were the days... :D
    I remember when you could get $2 or €1.5 for £1.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,442

    FTFY ;)
    You really do give credence to the idea that Labour has become a quasi religious cult.

  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    IanB2 said:

    Did you not see the response from Tory HQ saying that they had already turned him down?

    Whilst former kipper far less impressive than Wolfe and way more swivel eyed, but without any media profile comes into and shapes the Conservative party? 🤔
  • Root's been dropped.

    About time too after his captaincy in the tests.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,076
    _Anazina_ said:

    As I say, that’s Scottish questions, no sign of John Mann.
    It's just over seven hours in
  • I have been polite and already answered your question, I will do so again. Yes I have.

    I expect you will now be polite and answer my question.

    Do you expect John to repeat his accusations somewhere he can't make untrue accusations without consequence (like outside the commons)?

    I make no further comment
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,320

    FTFY ;)
    No you haven't, that makes no sense now. And there's a full stop with no capital letter afterwards.

    Honestly, these Corbynistas.
  • NEW THREAD

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,650
    I have not heard John Mann's allegations but given it is possible to hear them and read them in reports of proceedings could they without a problem be repeated on an Internet forum just as for example the Philip Green story was?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Drutt said:

    Assuming the West Indies continue to field Beadle-handedly, Root gets to 5000 ODI runs today and he's the 4th-fastest to do so ever. Seven runs to go.

    ROOOOOOOOOOT. That 'fewest innings to 5k ODI runs' list is Amla, Viv, Kohli, Root, Lara.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    _Anazina_ said:

    Anyone have a link for John Mann’s comments? I checked out the tape someone posted up thread but the time stamp only led to some very mundane Scottish debate.

    You can read his speech here:

    https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-02-20/debates/993F895E-D215-4773-A464-1A6320523B0E/AntisemitismInModernSociety#contribution-3697F29B-93EA-4016-AE6B-C40017640901
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Nigelb said:

    You really do give credence to the idea that Labour has become a quasi religious cult.

    Yes my lack of support for John Mann certainly marks me out as extreme...
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    viewcode said:

    I remember when you could get $2 or €1.5 for £1.
    Before Lawsons mid 80s economic miracle it was $4 for £1
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    I must admit that I'm slightly concerned about the distinction between:

    1. is a citizen of another country
    2. is eligible to the citizen of another country

    Because if 2 is the barrier, then the Home Secretary can - without going through any legal process - strip anybody of Jewsish heritage, or who was born in Northern Ireland, or who has one Irish grandparent of their citizenship.

    There is also the “seriously prejudicial” criteria!
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:

    There is also the “seriously prejudicial” criteria!
    So if, say, one of David Camerons parents had duel nationality, and we were operating a policy of stripping British citizenship from those showing evidence of causing chaos, disorder, threatening the way of life we have in this country... there could only be one outcome?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,442

    Yes my lack of support for John Mann certainly marks me out as extreme...
    Rather, your adopted acolyte persona.

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Nigelb said:

    Rather, your adopted acolyte persona.

    So do you think Mann will be repeating his accusations?

    Nobody answers me because nobody does, the little coward did that because he knows it offers him protection to make up whatever rubbish he wants without consequence.

    If pointing this out makes me an acolyte then so be it, but he is acting like a cheap bully and should be called out for it, I won't be deterred from doing so by insults.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,148
    dots said:

    Before Lawsons mid 80s economic miracle it was $4 for £1
    Um, no it wasn't. It was pegged to £1=$4.03 in 1940, then devalued to £1=$2.8 in 1949, then devalued to £1=$2.4 in 1967, then free-floated in 1971, then it had an arse of a time in Thatcher 1, ranging from $2.4 to $1.03, then around the end of the eighties/beginning of the 90's it began to stabilise, then had a wobble during the ERM fallout, then strengthened to $2.10 in 2007 at the peak of the boom, then fell to around $1.4 post-crisis, then began to strengthen again, around $1.6 around the 2015 elex, then fell to around $1.4 as the referendum campaign proceeded, then strengthened to $1.5 when the markets thought it would Remain, then fell to $1.35 overnight, then fell again when May talked to the 2016(?) conference and the markets realised the implications, then fell briefly to $1.2, then rose to just over $1.4 when the markets thought we had a deal, then fell again when they realised we might not. Some projections have us hitting $1.15 if we leave no-deal.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,632
    Y

    So do you think Mann will be repeating his accusations?

    Nobody answers me because nobody does, the little coward did that because he knows it offers him protection to make up whatever rubbish he wants without consequence.

    If pointing this out makes me an acolyte then so be it, but he is acting like a cheap bully and should be called out for it, I won't be deterred from doing so by insults.
    You are repeatedly making potentially libellous accusations against an MP on someone else’s site thereby putting the owner of this site at legal risk.

    Try and take some advice. Stop it. Mr Smithson allows people to post on this site but understandably expects posters not to behave in a way which could get him in trouble with lawyers.

    If you want to pursue whatever issues you have with Mr Mann do it on your own site.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    Y

    You are repeatedly making potentially libellous accusations against an MP on someone else’s site thereby putting the owner of this site at legal risk.

    Try and take some advice. Stop it. Mr Smithson allows people to post on this site but understandably expects posters not to behave in a way which could get him in trouble with lawyers.

    If you want to pursue whatever issues you have with Mr Mann do it on your own site.
    TBH if you are naive enough to believe John will repeat his accusations without the protection of being an MP in the commons then good for you.

    Willing to offer any time frame on that?

    My guess is the coward won't do it at all, he'll hide behind his ability to make accusations without consequence.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    nljnkljl;kl;kkl


    testing testing.. I really have spilt coffee all over my keyboard…..
This discussion has been closed.