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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

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  • _Anazina_ said:

    I see someone is keen to prove Anna Soubry's point.

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Woolfe/status/1098224374476390403


    Cry Woolfe!
    The party has said he is not a member and cannot stand for the party
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So May turns up to Brussels spends half an hour talking crap and then shuffles back to the UK delusionally exclaiming further progress has been made .

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019
    AndyJS said:

    I thought that Anna Soubry on Channel 4 News was a bit rude and patronising towards Bill Cash. He was courteous to her but she was rather snooty towards him.

    To me, she comes across like that all the time. In contrast, Heidi Allen came across well this afternoon.
  • AndyJS said:

    I thought that Anna Soubry on Channel 4 News was a bit rude and patronising ...

    I thought that the Pope was Catholic ...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Here's one People's Vote the people do actually want

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098284695735943168

    Ah, the public who want to keep FPTP but don't like what that means.
    I hope you aren't suggesting that voters say one thing and mean the other?

    (Or hold multiple contradictory views simultaneously?)
    What like "why can't parties stop fighting and just get together in coalition?"
    Coalition building implies compromise and a bit of give and take in some areas, and agreeing to disagree in others.

    This is not the same as believing all the things at once.
  • Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    2011 Referendum:

    No to AV: 68%
    Yes to AV: 32%
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Floater said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Until you have walked through Dedham Vale on a warm spring day, you should STFU.
    I was at Flatford Mill last weekend - just a wonderful spot.
    It’s a very heaven. Walk up from there and lunch in the garden at The Sun at Dedham on a warm Saturday. Pretty much the perfect day.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    AndyJS said:

    I thought that Anna Soubry on Channel 4 News was a bit rude and patronising towards Bill Cash. He was courteous to her but she was rather snooty towards him.

    My (pretty politically neutral, Remain voting) other half just said exactly the same.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    nico67 said:

    So May turns up to Brussels spends half an hour talking crap and then shuffles back to the UK delusionally exclaiming further progress has been made .

    Why wouldn't she? The tactic has worked like a dream so far.

    Can successfully kicked another few yards towards Point-Of-No-Return-My-Deal-Or-No-Deal-Panic-Panic-Panic-Panic-Panic Day.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)


    One could argue the SDP's most significant achievement was to being first Labour and then the Conservative parties back to the centre - perhaps TIG will do something similar.

    The problem is we still don't really know what TIG stands for apart from being opposed to Brexit - rather like the early days of the SDP or May anyone can project anything.

    A survey of SDP members found 25% joined from Labour, 10% from the Tories, 5% from the Liberals, with the remaining 60% joining afresh as previous non-party members.
    The SDP comparison is overdone. There was no major issue where a significant proportion of the population were unrepresented by the major parties (Brexit). The internet wasn't a thing. I think it will work out a completely different way, this time around. How it will play out is anyones guess.
    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government destroyer, looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    I noticed the style of the defection of the Tories today and the three seemed to be trying to optimise Heidi Allen's exposure to the media. This maybe because she has only been an MP since 2015 and many people will never have heard of her before. It may also have been because she is very telegenic in my opinion and the message coming from a fresh faced source maybe mean a more receptive public approval?
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    AndyJS said:

    I thought that Anna Soubry on Channel 4 News was a bit rude and patronising towards Bill Cash. He was courteous to her but she was rather snooty towards him.

    Perhaps we can arrange a support group for poor Cash to cope with the trauma !
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)


    One could argue the SDP's most significant achievement was to being first Labour and then the Conservative parties back to the centre - perhaps TIG will do something similar.

    The problem is we still don't really know what TIG stands for apart from being opposed to Brexit - rather like the early days of the SDP or May anyone can project anything.

    A survey of SDP members found 25% joined from Labour, 10% from the Tories, 5% from the Liberals, with the remaining 60% joining afresh as previous non-party members.
    The SDP comparison is overdone. There was no major issue where a significant proportion of the population were unrepresented by the major parties (Brexit). The internet wasn't a thing. I think it will work out a completely different way, this time around. How it will play out is anyones guess.
    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    I noticed the style of the defection of the Tories today and the three seemed to be trying to optimise Heidi Allen's exposure to the media. This maybe because she has only been an MP since 2015 and many people will never have heard of her before. It may also have been because she is very telegenic in my opinion and the message coming from a fresh faced source maybe mean a more receptive public approval?
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    So far England are doing unexpectedly well.

    Cue a sudden collapse...

    You fecker.

    You are now exiled to ConHome until the UK revokes article 50 or rejoins the EU.
    Oops. It was a dumb thing to say, wasn't it?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)


    One could argue the SDP's most significant achievement was to being first Labour and then the Conservative parties back to the centre - perhaps TIG will do something similar.

    The problem is we still don't really know what TIG stands for apart from being opposed to Brexit - rather like the early days of the SDP or May anyone can project anything.

    A survey of SDP members found 25% joined from Labour, 10% from the Tories, 5% from the Liberals, with the remaining 60% joining afresh as previous non-party members.
    The SDP comparison is overdone. There was no major issue where a significant proportion of the population were unrepresented by the major parties (Brexit). The internet wasn't a thing. I think it will work out a completely different way, this time around. How it will play out is anyones guess.
    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    Far from clear that they have done that.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)



    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    I noticed the style of the defection of the Tories today and the three seemed to be trying to optimise Heidi Allen's exposure to the media. This maybe because she has only been an MP since 2015 and many people will never have heard of her before. It may also have been because she is very telegenic in my opinion and the message coming from a fresh faced source maybe mean a more receptive public approval?
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    It is good that we are back at the 1000 year Tory reich stage, maybe time for the Tories to call a general election to take advantage of Labour?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far England are doing unexpectedly well.

    Cue a sudden collapse...

    You fecker.

    You are now exiled to ConHome until the UK revokes article 50 or rejoins the EU.
    Oops. It was a dumb thing to say, wasn't it?
    Are you DavidL in disguise?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.

    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    Only works if they find a way to properly wound Labour between now and 2022, assuming that Parliament lasts its full term of course.

    If all they end up doing is whining about Brexit for another month before fading into obscurity then they'll make no practical difference to anything. Might as well rename themselves the P45 Club.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Antisemitic tweet I believe.

    'first as tragedy, then as farce'
    It wasn't all that antisemitic. But whatever. I think this is just a bit of news management.
    Indeed it's quite likely any enquiry will find him insufficiently antisemitic and re-expel him.

    Meantime, a lefty friend of mine shares a Facebook post which seeks to defend accusations of antisemitism by alleging a Jewish conspiracy. You couldn't make it up. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2070733679628884&id=100000768157558&sfnsn=mo
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    So May turns up to Brussels spends half an hour talking crap and then shuffles back to the UK delusionally exclaiming further progress has been made .

    You're surprised? May's behaviour in doing that for months has been hugely unacceptable. And it has been false claims of progress too, as the EU usually makes clear pretty quickly. Unforgivable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far England are doing unexpectedly well.

    Cue a sudden collapse...

    You fecker.

    You are now exiled to ConHome until the UK revokes article 50 or rejoins the EU.
    Oops. It was a dumb thing to say, wasn't it?
    Are you DavidL in disguise?
    No.

    All other considerations aside, I have good taste in films.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Interesting that Elizabeth Warren says 'full stop' instead of 'period'.

    https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1098322062895169536
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    ydoethur said:

    So far England are doing unexpectedly well.

    Cue a sudden collapse...

    You fecker.

    You are now exiled to ConHome until the UK revokes article 50 or rejoins the EU.
    Can PB rebrand as TiggerHome?
    Or Hundred acre wood?
    Better than its usual Pooh Corner.....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    _Anazina_ said:

    Floater said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Until you have walked through Dedham Vale on a warm spring day, you should STFU.
    I was at Flatford Mill last weekend - just a wonderful spot.
    It’s a very heaven. Walk up from there and lunch in the garden at The Sun at Dedham on a warm Saturday. Pretty much the perfect day.
    Yes; not a lot of better places. The estuary around Tollesbury is pretty good, too.

    There are some good pubs right across Essex N of Chelmsford.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Interesting that Elizabeth Warren says 'full stop' instead of 'period'.

    https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1098322062895169536

    An American who talks proper English like what we do?

    They be rare.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dare I say it, but some decent points in an article on...ConHome about tips for a new party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting that Elizabeth Warren says 'full stop' instead of 'period'.

    https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1098322062895169536

    An American who talks proper English like what we do?

    They be rare.
    True dat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    rcs1000 said:

    Pretty much agree with all of this.

    It's also a reminder that we need to spend the time to craft sensible legislation, not act in a series of jolts driven by headlines.

    The law should be that if you leave the country to fight against the United Kingdom, then you are guilty of treason, and punishment can be anything up to a whole life tariff.

    Middle sentence is key. Javid is letting himself down. Making these sorts of decisions based on what you think will get the mob cheering tends to lead to bad decisions. Remember Balls and Sharon Shoesmith? This reminds me of that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    nico67 said:

    So May turns up to Brussels spends half an hour talking crap and then shuffles back to the UK delusionally exclaiming further progress has been made .

    But her husband gets another box of chocolates and a couple of bottles of Kwak. Job's a goodun.
  • justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)


    One could argue the SDP's most significant achievement was to being first Labour and then the Conservative parties back to the centre - perhaps TIG will do something similar.

    The problem is we still don't really know what TIG stands for apart from being opposed to Brexit - rather like the early days of the SDP or May anyone can project anything.

    A survey of SDP members found 25% joined from Labour, 10% from the Tories, 5% from the Liberals, with the remaining 60% joining afresh as previous non-party members.
    The SDP comparison is overdone. There was no major issue where a significant proportion of the population were unrepresented by the major parties (Brexit). The internet wasn't a thing. I think it will work out a completely different way, this time around. How it will play out is anyones guess.
    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    Far from clear that they have done that.
    It is more than clear that Corbyn is now unsuitable for office and the polls are already showing it.

    You need to take off your 'blinkers'
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    So May turns up to Brussels spends half an hour talking crap and then shuffles back to the UK delusionally exclaiming further progress has been made .

    You're surprised? May's behaviour in doing that for months has been hugely unacceptable. And it has been false claims of progress too, as the EU usually makes clear pretty quickly. Unforgivable.
    I thought Cameron was pretty poor at dealing with the EU Commission. And then May came along.....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    ydoethur said:

    So far England are doing unexpectedly well.

    Cue a sudden collapse...

    You fecker.

    You are now exiled to ConHome until the UK revokes article 50 or rejoins the EU.
    Can PB rebrand as TiggerHome?
    Or Hundred acre wood?
    Better than its usual Pooh Corner.....
    When we all hear pineapple pizza is on the menu....

    http://media.giphy.com/media/84ZzhsJZWlE3e/giphy.gif
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Real Madrid 2-1 Man City
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited February 2019

    Justin124
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    --------------------------------------------------------
    This is true but it depends on who the next defector and of course the timing.

    If any more Tory MPs go then the Government will be in danger of not getting legislation through and they already had trouble when DUP or ERG went on strike recently. A defection makes it potentially a permanent problem rather than a temporary one.

    More Labour MPs particularly former cabinet ministers or frontbenchers would be very newsworthy. The secret of a defection I suppose is to make it different to the last one! They are media savvy individuals and might combine a defection with something of strategic importance i.e. A candidate for the Newport West seat or a framework for a new party or even a big donation to get the party rolling!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)


    One could argue the SDP's most significant achievement was to being first Labour and then the Conservative parties back to the centre - perhaps TIG will do something similar.

    The problem is we still don't really know what TIG stands for apart from being opposed to Brexit - rather like the early days of the SDP or May anyone can project anything.

    A survey of SDP members found 25% joined from Labour, 10% from the Tories, 5% from the Liberals, with the remaining 60% joining afresh as previous non-party members.
    The SDP comparison is overdone. There was no major issue where a significant proportion of the population were unrepresented by the major parties (Brexit). The internet wasn't a thing. I think it will work out a completely different way, this time around. How it will play out is anyones guess.
    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    Wha

    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    Far from clear that they have done that.
    It is more than clear that Corbyn is now unsuitable for office and the polls are already showing it.

    You need to take off your 'blinkers'
    One doesn't need to think him suitable for office to believe that a Corbyn led Labour government may still be possible.

    I won't rule it out, although it looks less likely to me now, at the very least in the short term.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Given that the Tiggers are only about stopping Brexit (and Corbyn) it is very much about Westminster, given only they can prevent the former. I wonder how many local politicians are waiting to see what the Tiggers actually stand for beyond that to consider if they should jump ship .
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,816
    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    Does that mean Birmingham is going to split down the middle?

  • Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)



    I think if anything it is a more favourable environment for a new party with MPs in a hung H of C instead of a solid Tory majority as in the early 1980s. Political identification and partisanship are diminishing. People become bored and will embrace risks that they were not willing to do in the past.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    I noticed the style of the defection of the Tories today and the three seemed to be trying to optimise Heidi Allen's exposure to the media. This maybe because she has only been an MP since 2015 and many people will never have heard of her before. It may also have been because she is very telegenic in my opinion and the message coming from a fresh faced source maybe mean a more receptive public approval?
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    It is good that we are back at the 1000 year Tory reich stage, maybe time for the Tories to call a general election to take advantage of Labour?
    Not yet. There is a lot further for Corbyn and labour to fall as further defections happen when he refuses to back a second referendum and the constant daily drip of anti semitism and hard left influence in his office is exposed
  • kle4 said:


    One doesn't need to think him suitable for office to believe that a Corbyn led Labour government may still be possible.

    I won't rule it out, although it looks less likely to me now, at the very least in the short term.

    I think sustained No Deal Brexit ensures a Corbyn Premiership.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If Trump can get elected so can Corbyn .

    We live in strange times .
  • Should root be in the ODI team? Should hales be in there instead?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    i'm curious as to how you can be so certain as to the facts?
  • Derek Hatton and a funny/offensive/homophobic/sexist/fat shaming/chauvinistic/misogynistic (delete as applicable) joke

    http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/6202/full
  • kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pretty much agree with all of this.

    It's also a reminder that we need to spend the time to craft sensible legislation, not act in a series of jolts driven by headlines.

    The law should be that if you leave the country to fight against the United Kingdom, then you are guilty of treason, and punishment can be anything up to a whole life tariff.

    Middle sentence is key. Javid is letting himself down. Making these sorts of decisions based on what you think will get the mob cheering tends to lead to bad decisions. Remember Balls and Sharon Shoesmith? This reminds me of that.
    With a 78% v 15% approval a politician is doing something the country demands
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    The question whether MPs should subject themselves to by-elections is a good one. It seems to me that MPs who can fairly claim that events have taken their party away from them rather than vice versa don’t have the same obligation as MPs who have moved away from their party.

    So the current ex-Cons have more explaining for me on this than the ex-Labs.

    If Theresa May embraces no-deal, future Con defectors have no moral obligation to submit themselves to a fresh verdict of their constituency electorate.


    Hasn't she rather embraced No Deal already? That's what we're heading for, she has refused to take it off the table, her Deal has been heavily defeated and the EU has repeatedly said that the WA is not up for renegotiation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
    Look at old election results, and Labour was competitive across Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Real Madrid 2-1 Man City

    They are not playing Real Madrid
  • Should root be in the ODI team? Should hales be in there instead?

    ODI records

    Root average 51.52

    Hales average 37.32

    Sheffield's Joe Root deserves to be in ahead of Hales.
  • nico67 said:

    If Trump can get elected so can Corbyn .

    We live in strange times .

    And the proof of that is ...

  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pretty much agree with all of this.

    It's also a reminder that we need to spend the time to craft sensible legislation, not act in a series of jolts driven by headlines.

    The law should be that if you leave the country to fight against the United Kingdom, then you are guilty of treason, and punishment can be anything up to a whole life tariff.

    Middle sentence is key. Javid is letting himself down. Making these sorts of decisions based on what you think will get the mob cheering tends to lead to bad decisions. Remember Balls and Sharon Shoesmith? This reminds me of that.
    With a 78% v 15% approval a politician is doing something the country demands
    I have to say I am reminded of Kipling's lines
    I could not dig: I dared not rob:
    Therefore I lied to please the mob.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Should root be in the ODI team? Should hales be in there instead?

    ODI records

    Root average 51.52

    Hales average 37.32

    Sheffield's Joe Root deserves to be in ahead of Hales.
    Surprisingly decentish rate to start off too, considering no boundaries from him.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Heidi Allen just said on Peston that she wouldn't support a VONC.
  • nico67 said:

    If Trump can get elected so can Corbyn .

    We live in strange times .

    And the proof of that is ...

    Trump's supporters chant 'Jews will not replace us'

    You can't imagine Corbyn's supporters chanting that. Oh.
  • Derek Hatton and a funny/offensive/homophobic/sexist/fat shaming/chauvinistic/misogynistic (delete as applicable) joke

    http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/6202/full

    All those health tablets plus some of his interesting views, he sounds a bit like a left wing version of Alex Jones.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    The question whether MPs should subject themselves to by-elections is a good one. It seems to me that MPs who can fairly claim that events have taken their party away from them rather than vice versa don’t have the same obligation as MPs who have moved away from their party.

    So the current ex-Cons have more explaining for me on this than the ex-Labs.

    If Theresa May embraces no-deal, future Con defectors have no moral obligation to submit themselves to a fresh verdict of their constituency electorate.


    Hasn't she rather embraced No Deal already?
    Yes, but not officially.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Should root be in the ODI team? Should hales be in there instead?

    ODI records

    Root average 51.52

    Hales average 37.32

    Sheffield's Joe Root deserves to be in ahead of Hales.
    What about strike rate? England are now getting a bit bogged now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Yesterday’s man has new specs.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
    So you have no evidence. Good to get that cleared up.

    For the sake of OGH's wallet, best not to keep repeating your allegation, which is potentially libellous.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    I see someone is keen to prove Anna Soubry's point.

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Woolfe/status/1098224374476390403

    Did you not see the response from Tory HQ saying that they had already turned him down?
  • Jonathan said:

    Yesterday’s man has new specs.
    He is starting to look more like magic great-grandad.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710

    Heidi Allen just said on Peston that she wouldn't support a VONC.

    She also said she didn't think they could cope with, or wanted, lots of Conservative defections, if I understood her correctly.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840


    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)



    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    I noticed the style of the defection of the Tories today and the three seemed to be trying to optimise Heidi Allen's exposure to the media. This maybe because she has only been an MP since 2015 and many people will never have heard of her before. It may also have been because she is very telegenic in my opinion and the message coming from a fresh faced source maybe mean a more receptive public approval?
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    It is good that we are back at the 1000 year Tory reich stage, maybe time for the Tories to call a general election to take advantage of Labour?
    Not yet. There is a lot further for Corbyn and labour to fall as further defections happen when he refuses to back a second referendum and the constant daily drip of anti semitism and hard left influence in his office is exposed
    Nice to see the pre 2017 confidence back, the racist right wing papers will accuse our opponents of racism and we'll sail to victory...
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
    As a matter of interest have you listened to his comments

    https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/26a6adbe-141a-48d2-bafa-c8686b9093c5

    About 18.24
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    _Anazina_ said:

    Taxman

    Heidi is a remarkably good communicator. Does great telly. She is superb again on Peston Live.

    And very warm toward the LibDems, whereas the Labour guy was lukewarm. I suspect that pattern goes for all of them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
    Look at old election results, and Labour was competitive across Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk.

    When I moved to whwre i lived now there was a Labour MP. And where I moved from, both in Essex there was a Labour MP for four years. Doesn't look as though that situation will be repeated in either constituency any time soon.
  • Should root be in the ODI team? Should hales be in there instead?

    ODI records

    Root average 51.52

    Hales average 37.32

    Sheffield's Joe Root deserves to be in ahead of Hales.
    What about strike rate? England are now getting a bit bogged now.
    Hales 95.65

    Root 86.43

    So largely comparable, especially when you consider Hales opens when there are fielding restrictions in place.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
    Look at old election results, and Labour was competitive across Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk.

    Was watching the 64 election a while back. They said the election would turn on the East Anglian marginals...how times change.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Heidi Allen just said on Peston that she wouldn't support a VONC.

    She said that this afternoon as well at the conference. There are several dynamics in play, one is opposing Brexit, another is not helping Corbyn to No10 and finally time to organise and create a party machine.
  • Heidi Allen just said on Peston that she wouldn't support a VONC.

    None of them will. Their revolution is over before it starts
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Floater said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Until you have walked through Dedham Vale on a warm spring day, you should STFU.
    I was at Flatford Mill last weekend - just a wonderful spot.
    It’s a very heaven. Walk up from there and lunch in the garden at The Sun at Dedham on a warm Saturday. Pretty much the perfect day.
    Yes; not a lot of better places. The estuary around Tollesbury is pretty good, too.

    There are some good pubs right across Essex N of Chelmsford.
    Recommendations please!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited February 2019

    Should root be in the ODI team? Should hales be in there instead?

    ODI records

    Root average 51.52

    Hales average 37.32

    Sheffield's Joe Root deserves to be in ahead of Hales.
    What about strike rate? England are now getting a bit bogged now.
    Hales 95.65

    Root 86.43

    So largely comparable, especially when you consider Hales opens when there are fielding restrictions in place.
    Have to say surprised hales is sub 100. Roy is 105.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
    Middle aged Tories leaving outer London.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
    So you have no evidence. Good to get that cleared up.

    For the sake of OGH's wallet, best not to keep repeating your allegation, which is potentially libellous.
    So when pray tell do you expect brave John to repeat his words without protection?

    Surely he would be happy to do so were he not making up a pack of lies, it is the only logical conclusion that the coward lacks the bravery to repeat his lies without protection.

  • Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)



    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    What if the defections slowly continue week on week? I used to work in a newsagents in my teens and remember looking at some newspapers from the early 1980s. The SDP defections happened over weeks or months and so in the current media environment a defection maybe as newsworthy as a by-election was then.

    I noticed the style of the defection of the Tories today and the three seemed to be trying to optimise Heidi Allen's exposure to the media. This maybe because she has only been an MP since 2015 and many people will never have heard of her before. It may also have been because she is very telegenic in my opinion and the message coming from a fresh faced source maybe mean a more receptive public approval?
    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    It is good that we are back at the 1000 year Tory reich stage, maybe time for the Tories to call a general election to take advantage of Labour?
    Not yet. There is a lot further for Corbyn and labour to fall as further defections happen when he refuses to back a second referendum and the constant daily drip of anti semitism and hard left influence in his office is exposed
    Nice to see the pre 2017 confidence back, the racist right wing papers will accuse our opponents of racism and we'll sail to victory...
    I think you need to look at labour mps for the accusations. They have experienced it first hand and are leaving the party because of it
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
    As a matter of interest have you listened to his comments

    https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/26a6adbe-141a-48d2-bafa-c8686b9093c5

    About 18.24
    Yes, bullies often like to attack people if they don't think there is a consequence.

    Do you expect John Mann to repeat his accusations outside the commons or do you think he is too cowardly to do so?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    nielh said:

    IanB2 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)


    One could argue the SDP's most significant achievement was to being first Labour and then the Conservative parties back to the centre - perhaps TIG will do something similar.

    The problem is we still don't really know what TIG stands for apart from being opposed to Brexit - rather like the early days of the SDP or May anyone can project anything.

    A survey of SDP members found 25% joined from Labour, 10% from the Tories, 5% from the Liberals, with the remaining 60% joining afresh as previous non-party members.
    The SDP comparison is overdone. There was no major issue where a significant proportion of the population were unrepresented by the major parties (Brexit). The internet wasn't a thing. I think it will work out a completely different way, this time around. How it will play out is anyones guess.

    everal years ago that Brexit would be a Government , looks like he will be proved correct on both accounts!
    On the other hand there are now far fewer by elections than in earlier decades , and this will deny any new party the oxygen of momentum and publicity previously generated by such campaigns.
    .

    The novelty of a defection tends to wear off quite quickly.This week porobably represents peak exposure for the new group, and it seems unlikely it will receive further exposure via the Newport West by election or the Local Elections to be held on 2nd May.I am not sure that the departure of Woodcock, Lewis or even Frank Field has had a lasting impact.
    Apart from the lasting impact of making a Corbyn led Labour govt pretty much impossible...
    Far from clear that they have done that.
    It is more than clear that Corbyn is now unsuitable for office and the polls are already showing it.

    You need to take off your 'blinkers'
    I am not partial to 'blinkers' and am no Corbynite - indeed I have openly declared my intention to spoil my ballot paper next time ( albeit for unrelated reasons). As for the polls , it depends what you want to focus on - Yougov has the Tories 8% ahead after a difficult few days for Labour - yet Opinium is now putting the parties back at level pegging having had the Tories 7% ahead two weeks earlier. Perhaps today's Tory defections will shift the polls a bit to their disadvantage. We can only wait and see until things settle down again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    We are at our best when we work together...unless it is with Blairites.

    Also, if it is true, as he says, that the GE showed that only the Labour platform delivers what people actually want, why did the Tory platform receive more votes?

    I know why they go on the biggest increase in vote share line so much, and it was impressive, but I do get a bit sick of it though. It's like praising May increasing the share, it's true but on its own that is not critical.

    And he has got some major balls to complain about people abandoning policies on which they were elected - he really has become as shameless as any party leader he once decried.

    Depressing take on the public to believe that noone other than Labour has delivered for the many, not the few - it it means the public has consistently elected goverments for the few not the many.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
    So you have no evidence. Good to get that cleared up.

    For the sake of OGH's wallet, best not to keep repeating your allegation, which is potentially libellous.
    So when pray tell do you expect brave John to repeat his words without protection?

    Surely he would be happy to do so were he not making up a pack of lies, it is the only logical conclusion that the coward lacks the bravery to repeat his lies without protection.
    Stop it. You are putting OGH at risk.

    (And making yourself look ridiculous.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Heidi Allen just said on Peston that she wouldn't support a VONC.

    She also said she didn't think they could cope with, or wanted, lots of Conservative defections, if I understood her correctly.
    Yep. She doesn't want to collapse the government - wasn't clear whether this was because Brexit is at a critical juncture or because TIG aren't ready for an election, or both.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    So that's two Labour MPs who have made statements laying themselves wide open to ridicule today.

    One is an insignificant backbench MP at odds with the party, whom everyone sane thinks is a racist coward, liar and failure.

    And the other is of course the MP for Bassetlaw.

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Floater said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Until you have walked through Dedham Vale on a warm spring day, you should STFU.
    I was at Flatford Mill last weekend - just a wonderful spot.
    It’s a very heaven. Walk up from there and lunch in the garden at The Sun at Dedham on a warm Saturday. Pretty much the perfect day.
    Yes; not a lot of better places. The estuary around Tollesbury is pretty good, too.

    There are some good pubs right across Essex N of Chelmsford.
    Recommendations please!
    The Sun at Feering. The Bell in the same village. The Chapel or the Woolpack in Coggeshall. The Old Crown at Messing.

    Windies have just dropped another catch.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
    Look at old election results, and Labour was competitive across Essex, Suffolk, and Norfolk.

    And once upon a time LibDems came within a handful of winning Chemsford and Southend W, and did win Colchester
  • West Indies fielding about as good as Tessie May dancing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Oddly there were at one time a couple of Lib County Councillors in what is now Mark Francois constituency. But I must admit that having him, Priti Patel and Bernard Jenkin as MP's is not a good advertisement. It is in fact a good reason for changing from FPTP, although not necessarily to AV.
    Essex keeps moving Right, the same way Merseyside keeps moving Left.
    I know. It can be depressing. And although I've spent much of my life here, i'm not entirely sure why.
    Middle aged Tories leaving outer London.
    TBH, not sure that's right.
  • IanB2 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Taxman

    Heidi is a remarkably good communicator. Does great telly. She is superb again on Peston Live.

    And very warm toward the LibDems, whereas the Labour guy was lukewarm. I suspect that pattern goes for all of them.
    Obvious next lib dem leader
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Cyclefree said:

    The question whether MPs should subject themselves to by-elections is a good one. It seems to me that MPs who can fairly claim that events have taken their party away from them rather than vice versa don’t have the same obligation as MPs who have moved away from their party.

    So the current ex-Cons have more explaining for me on this than the ex-Labs.

    If Theresa May embraces no-deal, future Con defectors have no moral obligation to submit themselves to a fresh verdict of their constituency electorate.


    Hasn't she rather embraced No Deal already? That's what we're heading for, she has refused to take it off the table, her Deal has been heavily defeated and the EU has repeatedly said that the WA is not up for renegotiation.
    Though Allen, Soubry, and Wollaston have sought to force a choice between No Deal and No Brexit. They have compromised over nothing. They can't complain that No Deal is now an option.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So far England are doing unexpectedly well.

    Cue a sudden collapse...

    You fecker.

    You are now exiled to ConHome until the UK revokes article 50 or rejoins the EU.
    Oops. It was a dumb thing to say, wasn't it?
    Are you DavidL in disguise?
    No.

    All other considerations aside, I have good taste in films.
    You mean you recognise that Solo is an excellent Star Wars film and that Die Hard is a Christmas Classic.


    :)
  • _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Floater said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Always said Essex was a shithole full of bigots.

    TSE at his bigoted worst!
    Angry splutter. I'm not bigoted. I just hate Tory MPs. And someone is judging Essex by it's TV image.
    I've spent time in Essex, also Essex elected Mark Francois.
    Until you have walked through Dedham Vale on a warm spring day, you should STFU.
    I was at Flatford Mill last weekend - just a wonderful spot.
    It’s a very heaven. Walk up from there and lunch in the garden at The Sun at Dedham on a warm Saturday. Pretty much the perfect day.
    Yes; not a lot of better places. The estuary around Tollesbury is pretty good, too.

    There are some good pubs right across Essex N of Chelmsford.
    Recommendations please!
    The Sun at Feering. The Bell in the same village. The Chapel or the Woolpack in Coggeshall. The Old Crown at Messing.

    Windies have just dropped another catch.
    For all the exhilerating strokeplay - England still need over 6 an over. I remember when that used to be the death-knell for a side batting second.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Fitch May be cutting the UK’s credit rating from AA
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    With a 78% v 15% approval a politician is doing something the country demands

    Well count me in the 15%. The 15% that says the 78% are wrong to think that a Home Secretary should be driven in his decision making principally by popularity and his leadership prospects.

    Ed Balls intervention in the Shoesmith case was also massively popular. Turned out badly as he will now acknowledge.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Not yet. There is a lot further for Corbyn and labour to fall as further defections happen when he refuses to back a second referendum and the constant daily drip of anti semitism and hard left influence in his office is exposed

    I'd be delighted to be proven wrong, but at this stage I doubt it. The antisemitism row has been rumbling on for what feels like forever, yet there's still no sign of a collapse in Labour's electoral support. This is probably because pretty much every single voter who gives a flying you-know-what about the subject has already abandoned Labour. And, frankly, it's entirely possible that the total number of voters who are *more* inclined to vote Labour because of this row (either because they've managed to convince themselves that Labour has been unfairly traduced, or because they think Jew-baiting is a good thing) is greater than the total number who find it off-putting.

    The only caveat to this is Corbyn's truly appalling ratings in the regular "Best PM" polls which, IIRC, has proved to be a more reliable guide to electoral performance than the largely useless headline VI polling numbers in the past. But, then again, if he were to step down and be replaced by someone with the same views but less of a record for fringe nuttery to defend - i.e. nothing whatsoever about the party itself changed - then one could confidently expect Labour's chances of victory to increase significantly.

    The formula most likely to wear Labour down, if this even proves to be possible, is either (a) the Tories finding a leader that people actually respect (and is capable of surviving an election campaign with that reputation intact,) and/or (b) the emergence of a popular new opposition party that can eat away at the old Labour core vote by being economically left, patriotic and socially small-c conservative, and unburdened with the historical baggage of the Tory party.

    TIG looks absolutely nothing like (b), which presently just leaves (a). Which is where the failed VoNC against Theresa May might actually turn out to help the Tories. They need her to stay in power long enough to act as a lightning rod for everything that could go wrong in the aftermath of Brexit, before jettisoning the charred remains and finding the right successor.

    That last part is the biggest challenge, of course.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The question whether MPs should subject themselves to by-elections is a good one. It seems to me that MPs who can fairly claim that events have taken their party away from them rather than vice versa don’t have the same obligation as MPs who have moved away from their party.

    So the current ex-Cons have more explaining for me on this than the ex-Labs.

    If Theresa May embraces no-deal, future Con defectors have no moral obligation to submit themselves to a fresh verdict of their constituency electorate.


    Hasn't she rather embraced No Deal already? That's what we're heading for, she has refused to take it off the table, her Deal has been heavily defeated and the EU has repeatedly said that the WA is not up for renegotiation.
    Though Allen, Soubry, and Wollaston have sought to force a choice between No Deal and No Brexit. They have compromised over nothing. They can't complain that No Deal is now an option.
    That’s not true. Soubra consistently pushed for a single market plus customs union Brexit until fairly recently.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited February 2019
    Jeremy and the hard left have their betrayal narrative. An excuse for defeat that will sustain the myths.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,157
    edited February 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    John Mann attacking Kevin Macquire in the HOC on anti semitism, and I am not going to repeat his allegation

    Go on! What's Kev been up to now?

    I think he's from Hartlepool
    I do not have the protection of the HOC so I would suggest you watch it on playback
    We could always wait for John to repeat it outside the of the commons.

    As we know what an honest and reliable source John is there would be no reason for him to have any fear about saying it without any protections on his speech.

    I know some of you are thinking John is some kind of coward who would smear someone by telling what he knows to be lies merely for his own political advancement but I think much more highly of him than that.

    John would only be saying these things if they were true, stake my life on it....
    If what John Mann said is true and he has the evidence, then it would be him who would have a good case for libel against the journalist in question.

    Still, good to see that Labour is still in shooting-the-messenger mode. That listening exercise of Mr McDonnell seems to have been very short-lived.
    If what John Mann said was true he would have said it (or be happy to repeat it) without the protections the common offers.

    I don't think anyone is naive enough to believe John isn't a coward and would repeat his lies without that protection.
    You know for a fact they're lies, do you? Have you seen the correspondence he received? And the correspondence he had with the police?
    I know what John's like, he is a snivelling little coward.

    When do you expect him to repeat what he said without protection?

    He won't because it is lies, that is the evidence I have, I wait to be proved wrong.
    As a matter of interest have you listened to his comments

    https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/26a6adbe-141a-48d2-bafa-c8686b9093c5

    About 18.24
    Yes, bullies often like to attack people if they don't think there is a consequence.

    Do you expect John Mann to repeat his accusations outside the commons or do you think he is too cowardly to do so?
    I think wise council is for you to let this go, as said by other posters
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    ydoethur said:

    So that's two Labour MPs who have made statements laying themselves wide open to ridicule today.

    One is an insignificant backbench MP at odds with the party, whom everyone sane thinks is a racist coward, liar and failure.

    And the other is of course the MP for Bassetlaw.

    *grabs tinfoil hat and ducks*
    What a lying shit he really is.
This discussion has been closed.