politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the TIGers make the DUP less powerful and a 2019 general e
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That said, you will never be forgotten as the originator of the expression "wetter than an otter's pocket....."SeanT said:
Oh GOD.Andrew said:SeanT said:
The search thingy seems unreliable, but.......
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=from:thomasknox since:2009-01-01 until:2010-02-12&src=typd
Which yields .....
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/83350303370 -
On the other hand, this was very astute, and quietly acute
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/69348811340 -
The first sign that TIG can potentially take support from BOTH major parties and not demolish the LibDems entirely.Scott_P said:0 -
You are always true to your beliefs for an election as unlikely as it seemskinabalu said:In fact you cannot delete any aspect of your prior existence. All you have done since birth, and indeed before, is recorded for posterity in the form of light emissions, and every word you have ever uttered lives on as radiation. It is all there in the beams and the waves. When we gaze at a celestial star we see it as it was many moons ago. Not just last Wednesday but long before that. The noise from Big Bang reverberates to this day as the background hum to our everyday activities and will continue to do so until the end of time. Which is in itself determined. It is common knowledge how and when and why all things, including time itself, will cease to be. If you really think about it, which is unwise, this means that the future has already happened and, since the past is captured and alive, both tomorrow and yesterday are with us today. Quite a thought, but what does it tell us about the header topic, the prospects for a general election in 2019? Alas, very little. My view, FWIW, is that it is far more likely that TM will call one, should she fail to get her deal through, than most pundits believe.
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ArfGallowgate said:
I think I’m tired after too many media interviews.IanB2 said:
Eh?Gallowgate said:
So TIG + Lib Dem alliance higher than Lab. Delicious.stodge said:Afternoon all
Nice to see a new poster on here, we had a SeanT on here before. I think he was a writer, called David Cameron "Gaylord Ponceyboots" I believe.
Sky Poll shows CON 32% LAB 24% TIG 10%, LD 9% - I've seen no figures for other parties.
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That was when my account was hacked by my wildly vengeful ex-girlfriend who I shan't name out of gallantry.IanB2 said:
It's still on Google. Including this classic:Andrew said:SeanT said:
The search thingy seems unreliable, but.......
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=from:thomasknox since:2009-01-01 until:2010-02-12&src=typd
Which yields .....
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/8335030337SeanT said:
Fuck Islam. Polls say almost 50% of Europeans think Islam is incompatible with European values. I agree with them. I'm one of the 48%. Unless it swiftly reforms, Islam must depart these shores. I want it gone. It must be slowly squeezed out with bans on burqas, imams, mosques, halal, the works, as is now happening across Europe from Austria to Denmark to Switzerland.0 -
She was a busy girl.SeanT said:
That was when my account was hacked by my wildly vengeful ex-girlfriend who I shan't name out of gallantry.IanB2 said:
It's still on Google. Including this classic:Andrew said:SeanT said:
The search thingy seems unreliable, but.......
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=from:thomasknox since:2009-01-01 until:2010-02-12&src=typd
Which yields .....
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/8335030337SeanT said:
Fuck Islam. Polls say almost 50% of Europeans think Islam is incompatible with European values. I agree with them. I'm one of the 48%. Unless it swiftly reforms, Islam must depart these shores. I want it gone. It must be slowly squeezed out with bans on burqas, imams, mosques, halal, the works, as is now happening across Europe from Austria to Denmark to Switzerland.0 -
Jordan Belfort on how May needs to sell the emotional and not just the logical side of her Brexit Deal
https://www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/london-life/jordan-belfort-on-how-to-sell-anything-even-a-brexit-deal-a4070561.html0 -
I hope we find out.stodge said:Afternoon all
For all the criticism of Corbyn's response to the creation of the TIG, what would be the response from May and the Conservative Party if five of their MPs left to join the same group?
Would not May claim her door was always open and she was always "willing to listen to colleagues" ?0 -
Sky leading with poll showing TIG higher than Lib Dems (yes - leading story)
34% labour are anti semitic
35% Corbyn is anti semitic0 -
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Crikey. Labour aren't just splintering, they are close to dissolving.Scott_P said:0 -
That’s, shall we say, somewhat interesting...Scott_P said:0 -
Not sure how you Baxter that, but it must be carnage for Labour?Scott_P said:0 -
Incidental fact (ht Dr Thevoz): Since WW2, 69 MPs have switched from one party to another (not including party mergers, withdrawals of the whip, & sitting as an Independent). Only 4 triggered by-elections.0
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If one cannot completely erase untoward past comments, perhaps best to just repost it all and swamp people with the sheer volume so they cannot focus on any one thing to be offended about?
I'm an extreme centrist personally, I cannot stand the moderate centrists.RobD said:0 -
If May gets her Deal through and the 7 abstain on a VONC then the DUP can no longer blackmail the PM over forcing an early general election unless she abandons her Deal0
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Excellent. Now I can enjoy my complacencyMarqueeMark said:
Not sure how you Baxter that, but it must be carnage for Labour?Scott_P said:
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May be @seant could use that privacy delete thing that google doesIanB2 said:
It's still on Google. Including this classic:Andrew said:SeanT said:
The search thingy seems unreliable, but.......
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&q=from:thomasknox since:2009-01-01 until:2010-02-12&src=typd
Which yields .....
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/8335030337SeanT said:
Fuck Islam. Polls say almost 50% of Europeans think Islam is incompatible with European values. I agree with them. I'm one of the 48%. Unless it swiftly reforms, Islam must depart these shores. I want it gone. It must be slowly squeezed out with bans on burqas, imams, mosques, halal, the works, as is now happening across Europe from Austria to Denmark to Switzerland.
Need to be quick though - hear it won’t work in a no deal scenario0 -
But are you on the left or right of extreme centerism?kle4 said:If one cannot completely erase untoward past comments, perhaps best to just repost it all and swamp people with the sheer volume so they cannot focus on any one thing to be offended about?
I'm an extreme centrist personally, I cannot stand the moderate centrists.RobD said:0 -
Tories down to 2005 levels, Labour down to 1983 levels maybe the new Independent party could break the mould? UKIP and LDs also up on 2017Scott_P said:0 -
Where TIG gets its vote from is likely to shift about a fair bit, especially if they do pick up a bunch of Tory MPsMarqueeMark said:
Not sure how you Baxter that, but it must be carnage for Labour?Scott_P said:
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I'm offended you cannot immediately tell, you must be one of those evil moderates trying to undermine the one true path of centrism!RobD said:
But are you on the left or right of extreme centerism?kle4 said:If one cannot completely erase untoward past comments, perhaps best to just repost it all and swamp people with the sheer volume so they cannot focus on any one thing to be offended about?
I'm an extreme centrist personally, I cannot stand the moderate centrists.RobD said:0 -
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Certainly not on those numbersBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Does he have to accept the challenge?Sandpit said:0 -
It's obvious he is an imposter for want of being able to spell it.kle4 said:
I'm offended you cannot immediately tell, you must be one of those evil moderates trying to undermine the one true path of centrism!RobD said:
But are you on the left or right of extreme centerism?kle4 said:If one cannot completely erase untoward past comments, perhaps best to just repost it all and swamp people with the sheer volume so they cannot focus on any one thing to be offended about?
I'm an extreme centrist personally, I cannot stand the moderate centrists.RobD said:0 -
It's about reason number tenBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!0 -
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Watson in office, but not in power.....Sandpit said:0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky leading with poll showing TIG higher than Lib Dems (yes - leading story)
Funny.
The Poll asks about "A new centrist party opposed to Brexit". 59 people say they would vote for it (compared with 47 people for the LibDems). Of the 59 people, 1 people previously voted Tory, 25 Labour and 10 LibDem.
Note these are people not percentages. A tiny sample. Many of the 59 people probably have not heard of TIG but fancy a centrist party opposed to Brexit.0 -
Does this path involve losing the meaningful vote and then kicking the can while telling everyone to hold their nerve?Scott_P said:0 -
Hmm, they were loyal Labour MPs obeying the party whip, weren't they? So it's a bit of a strange line of attack, given that Labour wants to portray them as mavericks.Scott_P said:Interesting question
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/10979206950262251530 -
It’s been a while since we went through Labour Party leadership rules on here, but from memory the process is the same for the deputy leader as for the leader - it needs to start with a vote of no confidence in him from the PLP, after which nominations are opened up and he is automatically on the ballot that goes to the membership. The problem he has is if the PLP get somewhat smaller and less inclined to back him over time, due to defections etc.Gallowgate said:
Does he have to accept the challenge?Sandpit said:
Alternatively, he gets throughly sick of being ignored and undermined by everyone else around him, and chooses to walk. Would be a massive coup for the TIG group if they could get him to resign the whip from a leadership position.0 -
Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
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Not sure it's an attack, as such, but I guess that is probably the answerRichard_Nabavi said:Hmm, they were loyal Labour MPs obeying the party whip, weren't they? So it's a bit of a strange line of attack, given that Labour wants to portray them as mavericks.
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Yes, the same people arguing we'll have no food on the shelves are also arguing that we'll be unable to export it. I think I might see a simple solution to that problem...RobD said:
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!0 -
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:0 -
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It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:0 -
It's it really just a variant of the argument that MPs represent all of the people, not just those who voted for them or for a particular policy?DonTsInferno_ said:
It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, we can expect creative cookery programmes on the TV with ideas about how you can substitute offal for tomatoes and whelks for strawberries.Sandpit said:
Yes, the same people arguing we'll have no food on the shelves are also arguing that we'll be unable to export it. I think I might see a simple solution to that problem...RobD said:
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!0 -
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Tell me again - how did this plonker vote in the Referendum?williamglenn said:0 -
I have a lot of time for Major, and I've been persuaded away from Leave toward remain because of how incompetently things have been handled, but at times he really lets his remain fanaticism get away from him.DonTsInferno_ said:
It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:0 -
@SeanT appeared in the “people you might know” listing on my Facebook feed a while back... he is a friend of a friend... curious, I looked and was delighted to find several images of Mrs T... my admiration and mild jealousy for the author/travel writer grew immensely that day... thankfully I have just checked and the said images have not been subject to the year zero purge of social media...0
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Ironic to see Major doing to Theresa what Maggie did to him.Scott_P said:
Guess he's come full circle...0 -
They were going to try again anyway, but yet that is a powerful incentive. And at least he admits the welsh also voted for it, unlike some others.Scott_P said:0 -
Except the referendum wasn’t about electing representatives.williamglenn said:
It's it really just a variant of the argument that MPs represent all of the people, not just those who voted for them or for a particular policy?DonTsInferno_ said:
It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:0 -
Whilst one doesn't wish to take any poll too seriously, one suspects that this could otherwise be interpreted as:Scott_P said:
Tory core vote: 34%
Labour core vote: 23%
Other: 43%
It would be nice to think that this really is the beginning of the end for the horrendous, toxic Labour Party, and that something palatable will come along to replace it. But that would be far too easy, wouldn't it?Scott_P said:In living memory of the Holocaust, a Jewish MP has been driven out of the Labour party by anti-Semites whose grip on the institution is total and irreversible. That last sentence stirs a sulphurous nausea and, 1,255 days after the Corbyn disaster began, still sounds too horrific to be true — and yet it is. The decent who remain imagine this stain will be scrubbed away one day, under a new leader, but it will not because it cannot.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/luciana-bergers-departure-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-labour/0 -
What a stupid comment to make. It undermines the rest of his message.DonTsInferno_ said:
It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:
Frankly, it is just dishonest0 -
Let them eat offal!Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, we can expect creative cookery programmes on the TV with ideas about how you can substitute offal for tomatoes and whelks for strawberries.Sandpit said:
Yes, the same people arguing we'll have no food on the shelves are also arguing that we'll be unable to export it. I think I might see a simple solution to that problem...RobD said:
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!
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Sounds like Tory Christmas come early if it plays out like thatBarnesian said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky leading with poll showing TIG higher than Lib Dems (yes - leading story)
Funny.
The Poll asks about "A new centrist party opposed to Brexit". 59 people say they would vote for it (compared with 47 people for the LibDems). Of the 59 people, 1 people previously voted Tory, 25 Labour and 10 LibDem.
Note these are people not percentages. A tiny sample. Many of the 59 people probably have not heard of TIG but fancy a centrist party opposed to Brexit.0 -
That is profoundly humiliating for the Lib Dems. No idea what the Tiggers, actually want, 90%+ would struggle to name more than 1 of them, no party, no organisation, no candidates, but hey, got to be better than those Liberal Democrats, eh?Scott_P said:0 -
And we lose whatever functional majority we have even with the DUP. Fuck that noise.Luckyguy1983 said:It would not be wholly unwelcome if the Tory remainer faction headed off to pastures TIG.
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What terrifies me is the possibilty that that post is not tongue-in-cheek.Sandpit said:
Yes, the same people arguing we'll have no food on the shelves are also arguing that we'll be unable to export it. I think I might see a simple solution to that problem...RobD said:
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!0 -
And an EU border from Carlisle to Berwick on TweedScott_P said:0 -
No it isn't - the context of his views are very clear, he is implying that 63% do not want Brexit because that many did not vote for it. It's unworthy of him, particularly when there are pleny of good arguments to use, so why he used a shit, and dishonest one, first up I do not know.williamglenn said:
It's it really just a variant of the argument that MPs represent all of the people, not just those who voted for them or for a particular policy?DonTsInferno_ said:
It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:0 -
Well quite. It is rather AC Grayling-lite, isn't it?kle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:
I suppose the best that can be said is that at least Major managed not to count all the children and babies as fanatical Remainers as well.0 -
Michael Gove. So dazzlingly clever he couldn’t even workshop post Leave vote scenarios. Of which our current one was always most likely.murali_s said:
Tell me again - how did this plonker vote in the Referendum?williamglenn said:
Same with our other PB Leavers.0 -
Project Fear.williamglenn said:0 -
ITV reports the IS bride is to be stripped of her British nationality0
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No it won't. Alternative histories abound and this will be another. Here's one: Suppose on Planet Sanity remainers had voted in GE2017 in really large numbers for....er….the parties that explicitly supported remain (Lib Dem, SNP, PC) instead of voting for parties that explicitly and unequivocally didn't, with, in the case of Labour, its voters voting with exhilarated enthusiasm for a leader with a longer anti EU record than anyone in parliament apart from Dennis Skinner. Then we wouldn't be where we are... would we.HYUFD said:
Tories down to 2005 levels, Labour down to 1983 levels maybe the new Independent party could break the mould? UKIP and LDs also up on 2017Scott_P said:
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Wow...really not many defections in British politics
https://twitter.com/mattsmithetc/status/10978700345826017320 -
checks.
Labour on sub-30.
gosh.
did not see that coming.0 -
To be fair, I expect the shops in Dubai will be stocked just fine.Ishmael_Z said:
What terrifies me is the possibilty that that post is not tongue-in-cheek.Sandpit said:
Yes, the same people arguing we'll have no food on the shelves are also arguing that we'll be unable to export it. I think I might see a simple solution to that problem...RobD said:
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!0 -
I have a feeling in my water that Gove will recant of his errors and back Remain/revoke sometime soon, and before the end of March.TOPPING said:
Michael Gove. So dazzlingly clever he couldn’t even workshop post Leave vote scenarios. Of which our current one was always most likely.murali_s said:
Tell me again - how did this plonker vote in the Referendum?williamglenn said:
Same with our other PB Leavers.0 -
Does anyone know how Others can be at 7% when UKIP, Green and the Nationalists are already included separately?Scott_P said:0 -
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None voted LD? Interesting.Foxy said:0 -
I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.0
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I've been quite consistent in saying that the biggest problem is going to be with food exports from the UK, as they'll be banned at the first sign of trouble with imports.Foxy said:
To be fair, I expect the shops in Dubai will be stocked just fine.Ishmael_Z said:
What terrifies me is the possibilty that that post is not tongue-in-cheek.Sandpit said:
Yes, the same people arguing we'll have no food on the shelves are also arguing that we'll be unable to export it. I think I might see a simple solution to that problem...RobD said:
More food for the barren supermarket shelves.kle4 said:
Eh, that's probably nothing.williamglenn said:twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1097916707690217472
...WHAT?!
I've already a freezer full of Waitrose finest bacon, should be enough to last a couple of months before I have to get the Danish crap instead.0 -
It cannot be easy to jump knowing your career is over at the next election unless of course the next election is years away and the new party can cut through. An early election would end their political careerswilliamglenn said:I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.
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I don’t think so, because MP’s are often (usually) elected with a minority of the votes cast, so you could honestly say ‘what about the 63% who didn’t vote for them’ if an MP were elected with 37% of the vote.williamglenn said:
It's it really just a variant of the argument that MPs represent all of the people, not just those who voted for them or for a particular policy?DonTsInferno_ said:
It seems so open to the counter argument that more than 63% didn’t vote to Remainkle4 said:
Sure, but it's not the end for the Independent Group that I'm interested in, it's whether they even get a proper beginning or not. Good polling might help with that.GIN1138 said:Worth remembering that at one point during late 1981 and early 1982 the SDP/Liberals had a significant opinion poll lead including one Gallup poll that put them on 50% with Con and Lab on 23% each.
We know what happened on the end...
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983
He has really undermined himself by going for the 63% line first up in my opinion. No you cannot ignore non voters either, but he's implying that those non voters will all be against the thing he wants them to be against.Scott_P said:
This is an attempt to make something that won a majority of votes appear a minority view, which is only true if you allocate non voters arbitrarily (ie its not demonstrably true)0 -
What makes you say that?williamglenn said:I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.
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Sorry Pulpstar. I mangled that post. I was referring to the Survation poll not the new Skydata one and there was a typo that I was too late to edit.Pulpstar said:
Sounds like Tory Christmas come early if it plays out like thatBarnesian said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky leading with poll showing TIG higher than Lib Dems (yes - leading story)
Funny.
The Poll asks about "A new centrist party opposed to Brexit". 59 people say they would vote for it (compared with 47 people for the LibDems). Of the 59 people, 1 people previously voted Tory, 25 Labour and 10 LibDem.
Note these are people not percentages. A tiny sample. Many of the 59 people probably have not heard of TIG but fancy a centrist party opposed to Brexit.
Of the 59 people, 16 people previously voted Tory, 25 Labour and 10 LibDem. Makes a difference!
Here are the raw figures
https://www.survation.com/survation-on-behalf-of-daily-mail-final-tables/
Table 12. Column AC
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Because it shows they are able to draw support from both main parties, and might be able to pick up more momentum if they get a critical mass of MPs.RobD said:
What makes you say that?williamglenn said:I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.
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Project Crap, actually. Having got the Leave vote over the line by pretending there's no downside, he aims to get the deal over the line by claiming the alternative is Armageddon. Honesty isn't a Brexiteer trait.Recidivist said:
Project Fear.williamglenn said:0 -
The big danger it becomes home to remainers and not a wider churchwilliamglenn said:
Because it shows they are able to draw support from both main parties, and might be able to pick up more momentum if they get a critical mass of MPs.RobD said:
What makes you say that?williamglenn said:I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.
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Presumably because If it looks like a new grouping would command a reasonable amount of support it encourages more to consider jumping, because it would mean some level of Tory support is going to the potential new group making it less of a risk, and because the risk of letting Corbyn in would look lower.RobD said:
What makes you say that?williamglenn said:I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.
Still probably career ending, but a decent start would give a new group a chance to make a big splash at least.0 -
Corbyn 26%, Sane Centre-Left 28% (TIG+LD+SNP+PC+Green).
That'll do very nicely for starters. Apart from the slight fly in the ointment as to how that works under FPTP (i.e. it doesn't).0 -
Having parties split into outright leave and remain parties would seem to be a good idea right now. Certainly they operate like it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The big danger it becomes home to remainers and not a wider churchwilliamglenn said:
Because it shows they are able to draw support from both main parties, and might be able to pick up more momentum if they get a critical mass of MPs.RobD said:
What makes you say that?williamglenn said:I would have thought that this polling makes it more likely for any Tory MPs on the brink to make the leap.
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