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SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the TIGers make the DUP less powerful and a 2019 general election less likely

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  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited February 2019
    Surge - or more appropriately BOUNCE.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1097862766486945792
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Surge - or more appropriately BOUNCE.

    Bouncing's what Tiggers do best.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Fourth like TIg
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Afternoon all :)

    The TIG haven't said what they will or won't do on a range of issues. Will they back May's WDA or simply abstain? I'm sure they will back a Second Vote but there simply aren't the votes for that in the Commons at this time.

    We can imagine they'll be opposed to a No Deal but that's meaningless as No Deal can only be stopped by either voting for the WDA or revocation (or of course kicking the can down the road via an extension).

    As for a VONC, why assume they wouldn't support such a vote? The LDs and SNP backed Corbyn last time though Vince did suggest support for a second try couldn't be guaranteed. The TIG can decide for themselves but a more Machiavellian thought might be that somehow triggering a GE (and a VoNC doesn't do that) and initiating a heavy defeat for Corbyn might be the start of getting Labour "back" as they would term it.

    Chuka might well argue a centrist Labour Party might look a very attractive alternative to a Conservative Government exhausted by internal turmoil and a long spell in office.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1097862766486945792

    Losing 4% overnight will do that :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    Right at the back of a long queue...like at Starbucks when all the twats infront of me want a grande latte made with cold brew espresso, with an extra shot, almond milk and a single pump of hazelnut, put in a venti cup topped up with boiling water.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    The TIG haven't said what they will or won't do on a range of issues. Will they back May's WDA or simply abstain? I'm sure they will back a Second Vote but there simply aren't the votes for that in the Commons at this time.

    We can imagine they'll be opposed to a No Deal but that's meaningless as No Deal can only be stopped by either voting for the WDA or revocation (or of course kicking the can down the road via an extension).

    As for a VONC, why assume they wouldn't support such a vote? The LDs and SNP backed Corbyn last time though Vince did suggest support for a second try couldn't be guaranteed. The TIG can decide for themselves but a more Machiavellian thought might be that somehow triggering a GE (and a VoNC doesn't do that) and initiating a heavy defeat for Corbyn might be the start of getting Labour "back" as they would term it.

    Chuka might well argue a centrist Labour Party might look a very attractive alternative to a Conservative Government exhausted by internal turmoil and a long spell in office.

    And finish their political careers - not going to happen
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    edited February 2019
    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.

    me fpt:

    They could be the difference between any and every policy or vote from now until 2022. That is in anyone's book a success. And success breeds success. Would you rather be a marginalised back bencher in the Cons or Lab or have real influence in parliament, a la the DUP in a new grouping/party? It's a no-brainer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Do we think there'll be any new Tiggers this week?

    And does that make Corbyn an Eeyore?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.

    That point needs qualification. The TIGers can only make a difference (compared with what would have been the case if they'd stayed as Labour MPs) if they vote in a way which is both different from Labour and is the same as the Conservatives (or at least the bulk of the Conservatives plus other MPs from the opposition parties). In practice, in almost any cases where this might apply, they could have simply rebelled against the Labour whip. So the difference caused by the defections may be less than it seems at first sight.

    The big exception to this is a vote of no confidence, as we discussed on the previous thread.

    Things may change further, of course, if there are substantial numbers of Tory defectors.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Do we think there'll be any new Tiggers this week?

    And does that make Corbyn an Eeyore?

    Two Tories maybe tomorrow. More Labour maybe next week.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1097866494988423168
  • DonTsInferno_DonTsInferno_ Posts: 108
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1097866494988423168

    ‘All unemployed’ could be added to worst case?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. B2, interesting. We shall see what happens.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DonTsInferno_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1097866494988423168

    ‘All unemployed’ could be added to worst case?
    Something about the level of public support, membership, councillor defections, and donations, needs to be added to the best case.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DonTsInferno_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1097866494988423168

    ‘All unemployed’ could be added to worst case?
    At least two would probably have been retiring at the next election anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Do we think there'll be any new Tiggers this week?

    And does that make Corbyn an Eeyore?

    He will Roo the day.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.

    That point needs qualification. The TIGers can only make a difference (compared with what would have been the case if they'd stayed as Labour MPs) if they vote in a way which is both different from Labour and is the same as the Conservatives (or at least the bulk of the Conservatives plus other MPs from the opposition parties). In practice, in almost any cases where this might apply, they could have simply rebelled against the Labour whip. So the difference caused by the defections may be less than it seems at first sight.

    The big exception to this is a vote of no confidence, as we discussed on the previous thread.

    Things may change further, of course, if there are substantial numbers of Tory defectors.
    Even small numbers of Tories starts to make the government position more fragile.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Just saw this so posting it for the LOLs

    https://twitter.com/MrKenShabby/status/1097495659463278592
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    One of the few possible benefits of the FTPA, of course, is that it might give novel political groupings a little more space to establish themselves.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.

    That point needs qualification. The TIGers can only make a difference (compared with what would have been the case if they'd stayed as Labour MPs) if they vote in a way which is both different from Labour and is the same as the Conservatives (or at least the bulk of the Conservatives plus other MPs from the opposition parties). In practice, in almost any cases where this might apply, they could have simply rebelled against the Labour whip. So the difference caused by the defections may be less than it seems at first sight.

    The big exception to this is a vote of no confidence, as we discussed on the previous thread.

    Things may change further, of course, if there are substantial numbers of Tory defectors.
    If there are enough Tory defectors to deprive May of her majority then May's strategy of appeasing the ERG to create a majority for her deal runs out of road - she would have to win support from another group.

    It would be much easier to envisage a compromise between TIG and the Conservatives, than between Corbyn and May. But they would need enough Tories to deprive May of her majority (7?) and enough Labour / other MPs to outweigh the ERG/DUP (50-100?).

    It's a stretch and time is short.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.

    That point needs qualification. The TIGers can only make a difference (compared with what would have been the case if they'd stayed as Labour MPs) if they vote in a way which is both different from Labour and is the same as the Conservatives (or at least the bulk of the Conservatives plus other MPs from the opposition parties). In practice, in almost any cases where this might apply, they could have simply rebelled against the Labour whip. So the difference caused by the defections may be less than it seems at first sight.

    The big exception to this is a vote of no confidence, as we discussed on the previous thread.

    Things may change further, of course, if there are substantial numbers of Tory defectors.
    If the DUP are more dispensable because there is another group of MPs to treat with, government policy might change in important ways.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1097868969078337541
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1097868969078337541

    They cannot help themselves
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097869939996876800

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097870486128730112
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Do we think there'll be any new Tiggers this week?

    And does that make Corbyn an Eeyore?

    I think the next amendable vote is on the 27th. That seems like an obvious landmark date by which they would hope to have attracted some new defections.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MrTCHarris/status/1097869832605892608
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Honda has insisted that Brexit did not influence its decision to close its Swindon factory as the car maker confirmed that it will axe 3,500 jobs in the UK."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/19/honda-confirms-swindon-plant-will-close-latest-blow-uks-car/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This thread makes an important point. A lot of people are asking whether the new grouping can break the mould (and mostly answering no). But there's a lot of important business to be done in this Parliament and in this Parliament this new grouping could make a big difference to the dynamics of this hung Parliament. It's fairly close to some important hinge points and with much greater freedom of manoeuvre it can use its power to get more of what it wants.

    What happens after the next general election is another matter, but by then a lot could have happened, and the success or failure of the new grouping might be incidental to its previous achievements.

    That point needs qualification. The TIGers can only make a difference (compared with what would have been the case if they'd stayed as Labour MPs) if they vote in a way which is both different from Labour and is the same as the Conservatives (or at least the bulk of the Conservatives plus other MPs from the opposition parties). In practice, in almost any cases where this might apply, they could have simply rebelled against the Labour whip. So the difference caused by the defections may be less than it seems at first sight.

    The big exception to this is a vote of no confidence, as we discussed on the previous thread.

    Things may change further, of course, if there are substantial numbers of Tory defectors.
    If the DUP are more dispensable because there is another group of MPs to treat with, government policy might change in important ways.
    That's true, but the actual numbers haven't changed (yet!). The TIGers can only have some influence if they can bring something to the table which is acceptable to the government and which Corbyn can't or won't bring. Even then, though, it has to be something which they couldn't or wouldn't have brought to the table as Labour rebels.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    One wonders why the AG wasn’t an intrinsic part of the negotiations all along .

    It’s clear that the key issue is him changing the legal advice . If the ERG then still refuse to vote for the deal they will come under huge pressure .

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1097870945769934848
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1097875333460774913

    https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1097810566742183937
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Charles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
    She gets her criminal record wiped. That's about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    Regarding batteries for electric vehicles, see Table 6 of this report to see why bulk manufacturing is likely to be done in the market being served:
    https://www.bcg.com/en-gb/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

    We might even get a significant facility (sufficient to provide at least 500k vehicles pa) in the UK... eventually.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1097872994851000321
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    MarqueeMark said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Do we think there'll be any new Tiggers this week?

    And does that make Corbyn an Eeyore?

    He will Roo the day.....
    And has been guilty of a number of Owlers recently.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1097876966357770243
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    Nigelb said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Do we think there'll be any new Tiggers this week?

    And does that make Corbyn an Eeyore?

    He will Roo the day.....
    And has been guilty of a number of Owlers recently.
    Though doubtless the Jezziah will be along shortly to Pooh Pooh the notion.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
    Not a lot, these days: you have to completely prove your innocence to get any compensation (rather than just refute your guilt).

    We really don't treat those found not guilty well - see The Secret Barrister's excellent book for more details.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,587
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681


    This can't be right. The most urgent need in the People's Republic is for production of a lot more Austin Allegros.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding batteries for electric vehicles, see Table 6 of this report to see why bulk manufacturing is likely to be done in the market being served:
    https://www.bcg.com/en-gb/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

    We might even get a significant facility (sufficient to provide at least 500k vehicles pa) in the UK... eventually.

    They have very different percentages for models than Uber and co (including Tesla) are working on. The article mentions robot taxis yet seems to miss an expected a big shift from car owning to short term renting as labour costs are removed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681


    This can't be right. The most urgent need in the People's Republic is for production of a lot more Austin Allegros.

    A square deal with the quartic steering wheel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    The good news for her is that if she is found not guilty on appeal, then she gets to spend her incarcerated days on other offences. "So, I'd like to use three months against an upcoming insider trading offence .."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding batteries for electric vehicles, see Table 6 of this report to see why bulk manufacturing is likely to be done in the market being served:
    https://www.bcg.com/en-gb/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

    We might even get a significant facility (sufficient to provide at least 500k vehicles pa) in the UK... eventually.

    They have very different percentages for models than Uber and co (including Tesla) are working on. The article mentions robot taxis yet seems to miss an expected a big shift from car owning to short term renting as labour costs are removed.
    Yes, right.
    I think the report is based on very conservative estimates of EV take-up (and modes of usage), but was nonetheless interesting for the detailed analysis of battery production costs.

    Of course new chemistries/techniques (eg Tesla's upcoming dry cathode) could make a nonsense of it all quite quickly, but they do nod towards those as well.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
    She gets her criminal record wiped. That's about it.
    The trial will still come up on a Criminal Records Check though, I think?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
    She gets her criminal record wiped. That's about it.
    You mean she can’t claim it was someone else’s?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Herdson, quite agree.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    A bit unfair on the Romans.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    It's fine if none of the letters in the acronym are also Roman Numerals, e.g. WWII.

    Though all acronyms only work if everyone involved can reasonably work out what they stand for, which will be the case for most of Mr H Cole's audience.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1097879243948810241
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Regarding batteries for electric vehicles, see Table 6 of this report to see why bulk manufacturing is likely to be done in the market being served:
    https://www.bcg.com/en-gb/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

    We might even get a significant facility (sufficient to provide at least 500k vehicles pa) in the UK... eventually.

    What's noteworthy is their description of Western Europe car manufacturing only includes France and Germany.

    We're at a transition point between ICE and BEVs but too distracted by Brexit to be able to do anything about it.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited February 2019
    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    Acronym? How do you say it..mveee, mveyeye?

    Or do you not mean acronym, and have just got confused by BBC reporters at trade union conferences using it to mean initialism?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681


    This can't be right. The most urgent need in the People's Republic is for production of a lot more Austin Allegros.

    A somewhat unfairly maligned car I feel. We had a couple when I were a lad and they were no worse than any other car of the era.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    JonathanD said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding batteries for electric vehicles, see Table 6 of this report to see why bulk manufacturing is likely to be done in the market being served:
    https://www.bcg.com/en-gb/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

    We might even get a significant facility (sufficient to provide at least 500k vehicles pa) in the UK... eventually.

    What's noteworthy is their description of Western Europe car manufacturing only includes France and Germany.

    We're at a transition point between ICE and BEVs but too distracted by Brexit to be able to do anything about it.
    Which is funny because Spain is about the only place in Europe seeing increased car investment and which is now the second largest maker of cars in the continent, well ahead of France and us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    nico67 said:

    One wonders why the AG wasn’t an intrinsic part of the negotiations all along .

    It’s clear that the key issue is him changing the legal advice . If the ERG then still refuse to vote for the deal they will come under huge pressure .

    Hopefully the PM will be able to tell the Malthouse Compromisers that the EU are moving to a point where the AG can issue a revised advice - and that Hotel California Brexit is dead.

    Or it really is going to be a shit-fest......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    edited February 2019
    rpjs said:

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681

    This can't be right. The most urgent need in the People's Republic is for production of a lot more Austin Allegros.

    A somewhat unfairly maligned car I feel. We had a couple when I were a lad and they were no worse than any other car of the era.
    AutoExpress confirm the Allegro was not the worst car ever made.

    But only the REVA G-Wiz was worse....

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97617/austin-allegro-the-worst-cars-ever
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Soubry protester James Goddard charged with harassment

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47296821
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    JonathanD said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Regarding batteries for electric vehicles, see Table 6 of this report to see why bulk manufacturing is likely to be done in the market being served:
    https://www.bcg.com/en-gb/publications/2018/future-battery-production-electric-vehicles.aspx

    We might even get a significant facility (sufficient to provide at least 500k vehicles pa) in the UK... eventually.

    What's noteworthy is their description of Western Europe car manufacturing only includes France and Germany.

    We're at a transition point between ICE and BEVs but too distracted by Brexit to be able to do anything about it.
    Presumably since those are the largest markets.
    But the location of lithium deposits might also be significant - and Portugal/Spain also have the advantage of being great locations for solar, and energy costs are a part of the equation too..

    As I indicated below, it's a far from foolproof analysis, but the detail on production costs was very interesting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1097879243948810241

    Is she (finally) putting her foot down?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    david_herdson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
    She gets her criminal record wiped. That's about it.
    The trial will still come up on a Criminal Records Check though, I think?
    Possibly but only on a CRB "enhanced check" I think. The basic check, for most roles, only shows unspent convictions and cautions. I might be wrong though.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Soubry protester James Goddard charged with harassment

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47296821

    Harassment is fair if it is a repeated course of action. That’s the difference between free speech and continual targeting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1097870945769934848

    Is that Tim who used to post on here?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1097870945769934848

    Is that Tim who used to post on here?
    Yep
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1097870945769934848

    Is that Tim who used to post on here?
    Yep
    nope. It's tim.

    :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    Well that's a hostage to fortune statement..

    Carlo: “I used to work at Liberty, Liberty doesn’t publish who funds it. Open Rights Group doesn’t publish who funds it…

    O’Brien: “No, but I’m not troubled by their agenda.”

    ...

    O'Brien : I can't let people on this programme unless they disclose their full funding....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=HhMhmZ9KNMI

    Going to be a very quiet show if he sticks to that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    MarqueeMark said:

    rpjs said:

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681

    This can't be right. The most urgent need in the People's Republic is for production of a lot more Austin Allegros.

    A somewhat unfairly maligned car I feel. We had a couple when I were a lad and they were no worse than any other car of the era.
    AutoExpress confirm the Allegro was not the worst car ever made.

    But only the REVA G-Wiz was worse....

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/97617/austin-allegro-the-worst-cars-ever
    I hadn't realised the SsangYong was designed by a Brit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/status/1097870945769934848

    Is that Tim who used to post on here?
    Yes. Not only is he massively anti-Corbyn, I seemed to remember he was good friends with Ms Berger.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    TrèsDifficile said:

    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    Acronym? How do you say it..mveee, mveyeye?

    Or do you not mean acronym, and have just got confused by BBC reporters at trade union conferences using it to mean initialism?
    It's "Emveeyie": like a Roman tribe.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1097879243948810241

    Is she (finally) putting her foot down?
    Straight into some sticky brown smelly stuff...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Urquhart, he comes across as entirely one-sided.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    edited February 2019
    Corbyn kicks off his listening project by telling the gang of seven (or Labour MPs) they were wrong about not being listened to...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/19/labour-split-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-politics-live

    A interesting approach.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    philiph said:

    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    A bit unfair on the Romans.
    Not really. They could conquer much of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa but could come up with a decent number system. Just think where they'd have got to had they sorted their maths out.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Baldrick speaks, @Tony_Robinson: The notion that the Labour Party is about to become kinder and gentler is sadly misguided.The Bennite sect that runs it has an iron grip on the levers of party power and has no interest in providing a welcoming space for those who don’t buy into its revolutionary strategy.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1097888099856715777
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, he comes across as entirely one-sided.

    With his Tufton street nexus stuff, he sounds bloody Tapestry and his Finchley road.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    david_herdson said:

    philiph said:

    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    A bit unfair on the Romans.
    Not really. They could conquer much of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa but could come up with a decent number system. Just think where they'd have got to had they sorted their maths out.
    It’s a bit of a myth that the Romans were hamstrung by their mathematics and in particular their lack of a zero. They actually had quite sophisticated ways of handling long division and multiplication. Yes, our methods are easier, but nit overwhelmingly so.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    rpjs said:

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kinsman_a/status/1097866958161223681


    This can't be right. The most urgent need in the People's Republic is for production of a lot more Austin Allegros.

    A somewhat unfairly maligned car I feel. We had a couple when I were a lad and they were no worse than any other car of the era.
    I think that's a point often forgotten when going on about the awfulness of British Leyland, British Rail, GPO etc. There were plenty of other awful cars, railway services and phone companies in the world at that time. Of course the first product of the more-or-less nationalised British Leyland was 1977 European car of the year, the Rover SD81
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    SeanT said:

    Incidentally, I have been doing a mass purge of my tweets, messages, Whatsapps, Facebook posts. I recommend it heartily, like a coffee enema. Also stops you being Toby Younged.

    As I was mass deleting, I found this incredibly poignant tweet from our own TSE, back in 2013. It feels like a different geological epoch, now.

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/323170784774336512

    Why don't you just set up on of those auto-delete systems, that gets rid of all older than x months instantmagically?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    On-topic, and the next election. While OGH might be right that TIG makes it less likely Theresa May's government will be no-confidenced, it could also be, as suggested on the previous thread, that CCHQ will be tempted by a snap election while TIG has damaged Labour but before any, or many, Conservative MPs defect.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    edited February 2019
    Afternoon all :)

    For all the criticism of Corbyn's response to the creation of the TIG, what would be the response from May and the Conservative Party if five of their MPs left to join the same group?

    Would not May claim her door was always open and she was always "willing to listen to colleagues" ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,587
    DougSeal said:

    david_herdson said:

    DougSeal said:

    Charles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    david_herdson said:

    In addition to The Seven, Labour is also down by Onasanya (in clink) and Paul Flynn (died earlier this week).

    In fact, if TIG did resign and fight by-elections, it'd give the government an effective overall majority of two until new MPs were returned.

    I thought that Onasanya was appealing? does she go to prison in the interim?
    Yes, it's instant prison regardless of appeal.
    So what happens if she wins her appeal after serving time in choky?
    She gets her criminal record wiped. That's about it.
    The trial will still come up on a Criminal Records Check though, I think?
    Possibly but only on a CRB "enhanced check" I think. The basic check, for most roles, only shows unspent convictions and cautions. I might be wrong though.

    It would come up on an enhanced check if the police had reason to believe it was important or relevant. It arises out of the problem of people who have no relevant criminal convictions but have a bad record in terms of information, allegations etc which have come to official attention. I think it arose out of the Huntley case (school caretaker), who had no convictions but was well known to the police. There is a tribunal system to deal with difficult and contested cases.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    SeanT said:

    Incidentally, I have been doing a mass purge of my tweets, messages, Whatsapps, Facebook posts. I recommend it heartily, like a coffee enema. Also stops you being Toby Younged.

    As I was mass deleting, I found this incredibly poignant tweet from our own TSE, back in 2013. It feels like a different geological epoch, now.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/323170784774336512

    If only TSE was right, the UK would not be facing a calamitous mess!

    To coin a phrase, don't blame me, I voted Labour in 2015.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Ed Miliband is still having counselling for the trauma of having to visit a Greggs...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    A long but interesting read. I don't find the - key - second chart as convincing as the authors; that Labour should be a straight Remain party looks a more reasonable conclusion from the data. But anyhow:

    https://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2019/02/19/do-people-want-a-new-centrist-party/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    Incidentally, I have been doing a mass purge of my tweets, messages, Whatsapps, Facebook posts. I recommend it heartily, like a coffee enema. Also stops you being Toby Younged.

    As I was mass deleting, I found this incredibly poignant tweet from our own TSE, back in 2013. It feels like a different geological epoch, now.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/323170784774336512

    If only TSE was right, the UK would not be facing a calamitous mess!

    To coin a phrase, don't blame me, I voted Labour in 2015.
    I hate to admit it, but Ed Miiband as PM and Ed Balls as COTE would suit me fine, right now.

    *sigh*
    I don't think we could cope with even more chaos.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    SeanT said:

    BTW does anyone know if it is possible to delete all one's comments and history on Vanilla?

    Of all the places I have Stupid Things When Drunk, this site is possibly the worst, and the last one to be bleached.

    I'd like me erased. Can it be done? Robert? Or can I delete myself and start again?

    Are you thinking of standing for parliament?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SeanT said:

    BTW does anyone know if it is possible to delete all one's comments and history on Vanilla?

    Of all the places I have Stupid Things When Drunk, this site is possibly the worst, and the last one to be bleached.

    I'd like me erased. Can it be done? Robert? Or can I delete myself and start again?

    Are you thinking of standing for parliament?
    Or the clergy...?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    MarqueeMark said:

    nico67 said:

    One wonders why the AG wasn’t an intrinsic part of the negotiations all along .

    It’s clear that the key issue is him changing the legal advice . If the ERG then still refuse to vote for the deal they will come under huge pressure .

    Hopefully the PM will be able to tell the Malthouse Compromisers that the EU are moving to a point where the AG can issue a revised advice - and that Hotel California Brexit is dead.

    Or it really is going to be a shit-fest......
    Let’s hope it’s the former . The problem for the ERG is that they bigged up the original legal advice and if the AG now says the backstop legally can’t be permanent then if they still dig their heels in the anger from the rest of the party will be huge . At that point May should do something she’s not done so far and threaten to push for a softer Brexit and throw them under a bus .

    I think what’s now happening is the realization that May surviving the no confidence from her MPs was pivotal . They can’t threaten to remove her now and no deal isn’t going to happen regardless of the government and media commentators continuing to peddle this fantasy .
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    david_herdson said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1097874221454319617

    People shouldn't use Roman Numerals attached to acronyms. Is that MV2, M7 or 1007?
    This article is more relevant than the title suggests, as it gives firmly-sourced info on what the EU is doing to meet TM halfway (spoiler: nothing!):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/19/brexit-labour-jeremy-hunt-eu
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    Incidentally, I have been doing a mass purge of my tweets, messages, Whatsapps, Facebook posts. I recommend it heartily, like a coffee enema. Also stops you being Toby Younged.

    As I was mass deleting, I found this incredibly poignant tweet from our own TSE, back in 2013. It feels like a different geological epoch, now.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/323170784774336512

    If only TSE was right, the UK would not be facing a calamitous mess!

    To coin a phrase, don't blame me, I voted Labour in 2015.
    I hate to admit it, but Ed Miiband as PM and Ed Balls as COTE would suit me fine, right now.

    *sigh*
    I'd prefer Ed Balls as PM and Miliband as Chancellor. EdM would come out of a meeting with Putin with his his underpants round his ears.

    And had Labour won in 2015, there's a strong chance Boris would be LotO (and performing well in a natural oppositionist position), UKIP would be on 15%+ and the Tories still committed to an In/Out referendum, as we headed to a GE next year.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2019
    Averages of February opinion polls:

    Con 39.3%
    Lab 35.6%
    LD 9.9%
    UKIP 5.0%
    Greens 3.7%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019

    Baxtered:

    Con 324 (+6)
    Lab 245 (-17)
    LD 18 (+6)
    SNP 41 (+6)
This discussion has been closed.