politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today could be the day that Corbyn’s Labour Party finally spli
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More like Boxer.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The Prescott role then?IanB2 said:Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
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The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.0
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The next few months will be fascinating and I expect more labour mps will leave labour for this groupkinabalu said:
I need to process properly but initial thoughts -Big_G_NorthWales said:Maybe your hope for a GE is somewhat diminished
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Perhaps more.
If it gains real momentum (forgive the pun) we may see a public groundswell towards them and of course will damage Corbyn.
A GE may come along but I am not expecting one this year0 -
For those looking at the second tier to join The Seven:
https://labourlist.org/2016/03/leaked-list-ranks-labour-mps-by-hostility-to-corbyn/0 -
Shuker is far more of a concern.IanB2 said:Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
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The tragedy for Corbyn is that these MPs would probably have stayed in the party if he'd just taken a stand against anti-Semitism.0
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We'll see - I'm sure there will be plenty of polling in the next few days.Nigelb said:
And quite possibly the Tory one, too.rkrkrk said:Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.
Which is presumably why they're avoiding the SDP intake of casting themselves as a replacement for Labour.
But unless some Conservative MPs join them, I can't see why they would appeal to Tory voters. I presume a large majority of Tory voters do not want a second referendum and probably aren't that keen on whatever other policies these ex-Labour MPs come up with.0 -
Gapes has been solid on Brexit. The good thing about the way they've positioned it as a group of independents means there won't be much mileage in playing up ideological splits.IanB2 said:
If they become cast as Labour in exile, for sure. But I reckon Chuka and the others have bigger hopes.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The Prescott role then?IanB2 said:Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
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They're so sweet0
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Dan Hodges must be allowed a moment of smug self-satisfaction today.0
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What antisemtism cry the cult...AndyJS said:The tragedy for Corbyn is that these MPs would probably have stayed in the party if he'd just taken a stand against anti-Semitism.
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I thought I heard that in relation to LDs specifically. And was surprised to hear it. Although am prepared to be corrected. Makes no sense to attack them by name, even if, as you say, it is clearly true.IanB2 said:
But clearly true, going on their poll ratings. Although I thought that comment was prefaced by "major parties"?dixiedean said:
I thought that. However, there was an attack on the LDs too in there. "Lost the trust of the electorate".AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Which seemed curious.0 -
Yes, and anti-semitism should have been an easy win. Throwing out a few hundred people to demonstrate zero tolerance for racism and abuse in practice should not have been beyond their political and organisational capabilities.rottenborough said:
The more thinking members of Jezza's inner cabinet have been terrified this would happen for months Stephen Bush has written in Newstatesman recently.TheWhiteRabbit said:
a sort of alliance?murali_s said:
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.
Yet, nobody seemed prepared to try and stop it by doing anything about the causes.
Jezza's team have only themselves to blame for this.0 -
We'll see.rkrkrk said:
We'll see - I'm sure there will be plenty of polling in the next few days.Nigelb said:
And quite possibly the Tory one, too.rkrkrk said:Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.
Which is presumably why they're avoiding the SDP intake of casting themselves as a replacement for Labour.
But unless some Conservative MPs join them, I can't see why they would appeal to Tory voters. I presume a large majority of Tory voters do not want a second referendum and probably aren't that keen on whatever other policies these ex-Labour MPs come up with.
I suspect there's a significant minority of Tory voters equally disillusioned with current politics. And perhaps a number of MPs, too.0 -
I'm not sure I agree with that (in public, at least). Surely, they need to be seen *not* to throwing their lot in with any of the existing structures - that being their distinctive feature. Branded as "LD light" would be death.IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
With great respect, I don’t think you have the first clue of how women feel about being slighted in the work place. The things I have described above have happened to every single woman of my acquaintance, including myself, no matter what the industry or sector or their political views or age. And it is still going on.Roger said:
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
Labour looks like an old-fashioned mysogynistic party where the behaviour of individual men, including those close to the leadership, is as bad as as any seen anywhere.
I’ve no idea whether this grouping will be successful. I do know one of the women closely involved in it (not Luciana) and I know that she has been appallingly bullied and treated by those within Labour who claim to be in favour of womens’ rights in theory but cannot stomach any individual woman speaking up for herself in practice.
That strikes with a chord with rather more women across the political spectrum than you might suppose.0 -
Stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.MarqueeMark said:Dan Hodges must be allowed a moment of smug self-satisfaction today.
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His opponent in 2017 was pretty appalling.MarqueeMark said:
Just looked at his details for his Hove seat. His majority in 2015 - 1,236. In 2017 - 18,757. There must be a monster Remain effect in that seat?williamglenn said:
That's Peter Kyle.Scott_P said:Labour MP on Sky sounding ambivalent about staying.
"A Jewish woman has been hounded out of the Labour party. Which side of that line are we on?"0 -
Where is hashtag fourpercent?
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Starring Chuka Umunna as Yul Bryner...?SouthamObserver said:It’s going to be a long hard slog, but having something to believe in again feels like it might be magnificent.
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Yes, but also there aren't many seats that are changing faster demographically than Hove from Tory to Labour. There can't be many retired colonels left there now.MarqueeMark said:
Just looked at his details for his Hove seat. His majority in 2015 - 1,236. In 2017 - 18,757. There must be a monster Remain effect in that seat?williamglenn said:
That's Peter Kyle.Scott_P said:Labour MP on Sky sounding ambivalent about staying.
"A Jewish woman has been hounded out of the Labour party. Which side of that line are we on?"0 -
It will be interesting to see how Chuka does in the "Best PM" polls.0
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Isn't the form in this case "with the very greatest respect" ?Cyclefree said:
With great respect, I don’t think you have the first clue of how women feel about being slighted in the work place. The things I have described above have happened to every single woman of my acquaintance, including myself, no matter what the industry or sector or their political views or age. And it is still going on.Roger said:
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
Labour looks like an old-fashioned mysogynistic party where the behaviour of individual men, including those close to the leadership, is as bad as as any seen anywhere.
I’ve no idea whether this grouping will be successful. I do know one of the women closely involved in it (not Luciana) and I know that she has been appallingly bullied and treated by those within Labour who claim to be in favour of womens’ rights in theory but cannot stomach any individual woman speaking up for herself in practice.
That strikes with a chord with rather more women across the political spectrum than you might suppose.0 -
Is it me or does that make absolutely no sense? Some of the loudest voices calling for his resignation have given up and gone elsewhere. Surely that makes Corbyn more secure, not less?Scott_P said:0 -
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Anyone else got a clue what this sentence even means?Roger said:The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
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Removed their support and switched to the Tories? I doubt it.BudG said:
Don't you think that those who share their criticism of Corbyn and anti Semitism in Labour have already removed their support in current polling from Labour. Surely this is the reason why Conservatives are polling so high.rkrkrk said:Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.
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I suspect Angela Smith's "left-wing intellectuals" comment was aimed squarely at Seumas Milne.0
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Mischievous thought: I wonder if any LibDems MPs might be tempted?0
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There is no point wasting money on polling on that.williamglenn said:It will be interesting to see how Chuka does in the "Best PM" polls.
He isn't a serious candidate for anything right now.0 -
Maybe there's a subtext I'm missing but we were talking about this new grouping attracting members. All the things you quote from cyclefree about Berger's ill treatment don't make her someone people are going to follow. Do you think they will?Nigelb said:
...all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men....Roger said:
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
I'm pretty sure that's not the limited view you imagine it might be.0 -
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He might go of his own accord, at this point it's pretty obvious the left would do better with someone equally left-wing but more agile with the mood music.Endillion said:
Is it me or does that make absolutely no sense? Some of the loudest voices calling for his resignation have given up and gone elsewhere. Surely that makes Corbyn more secure, not less?Scott_P said:0 -
Too many mimosas for breakfast?BannedInParis said:
Anyone else got a clue what this sentence even means?Roger said:The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
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Or once a day if it's one of these.FrancisUrquhart said:
Stopped clock is right twice a day and all that.MarqueeMark said:Dan Hodges must be allowed a moment of smug self-satisfaction today.
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I wonder that as well. As I've said many times before the abject failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Brexit as The Remain Party is perplexing. There must be some Lib Dems thinking "we could do with a reboot too".Richard_Nabavi said:Mischievous thought: I wonder if any LibDems MPs might be tempted?
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Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.0
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That's how everyone staying can now be judged - you've made a decision to support the Corbynites if you haven't joined your ex-colleagues.Scott_P said:0 -
That's how the movement will gather momentum (sic). But really now they need some Tories.Scott_P said:0 -
I’m keeping in that reserve. I think there is more patronising bollocks to come.Nigelb said:
Isn't the form in this case "with the very greatest respect" ?Cyclefree said:
With great respect, I don’t think you have the first clue of how women feel about being slighted in the work place. The things I have described above have happened to every single woman of my acquaintance, including myself, no matter what the industry or sector or their political views or age. And it is still going on.Roger said:
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
Labour looks like an old-fashioned mysogynistic party where the behaviour of individual men, including those close to the leadership, is as bad as as any seen anywhere.
I’ve no idea whether this grouping will be successful. I do know one of the women closely involved in it (not Luciana) and I know that she has been appallingly bullied and treated by those within Labour who claim to be in favour of womens’ rights in theory but cannot stomach any individual woman speaking up for herself in practice.
That strikes with a chord with rather more women across the political spectrum than you might suppose.0 -
If May gets her deal through at the end of March (just humour me!), then THAT is when Corbyn is most at risk. He will have failed to prevent Brexit. And without the cover of Brexit, Labour MPs have the stark issue of anti-semitism to focus on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next few months will be fascinating and I expect more labour mps will leave labour for this groupkinabalu said:
I need to process properly but initial thoughts -Big_G_NorthWales said:Maybe your hope for a GE is somewhat diminished
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Perhaps more.
If it gains real momentum (forgive the pun) we may see a public groundswell towards them and of course will damage Corbyn.
A GE may come along but I am not expecting one this year0 -
Aside from how this new movement fares, all these "good news for Tories" types are forgetting that the Tory poll rating is propped up largely by fear of Corbyn, and that the government is in a truly abject state.0
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They could fill a taxi and go over to the launch.Richard_Nabavi said:Mischievous thought: I wonder if any LibDems MPs might be tempted?
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I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.Danny565 said:
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
Whatever discipline there was in the Labour Party looks like it'll be difficult to maintain.Scott_P said:0 -
AndyJS said:
I suspect Angela Smith's "left-wing intellectuals" comment was aimed squarely at Seumas Milne.
“Intellectual” there being meant ironically, I hope. Someone who spouts Citizen “Wolfie” Smith nonsense in a public school voice is not exactly Isaiah Berlin, after all.0 -
Probably not much point in burning that bridge at this point. Better to wait until an election gets close and see how the land's laying.Richard_Nabavi said:Mischievous thought: I wonder if any LibDems MPs might be tempted?
What makes things quite unpredictable is that it means if there's going to be a realignment, it may not happen until right before the next election.0 -
I think a general rule for politics is "if you think any given event only has one possible upside, perhaps you need to look more closely".IanB2 said:Aside from how this new movement fares, all these "good news for Tories" types are forgetting that the Tory poll rating is propped up largely by fear of Corbyn, and that the government is in a truly abject state.
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IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).Chris said:
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.Danny565 said:
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
Yes, ironically.Cyclefree said:AndyJS said:I suspect Angela Smith's "left-wing intellectuals" comment was aimed squarely at Seumas Milne.
“Intellectual” there being meant ironically, I hope. Someone who spouts Citizen “Wolfie” Smith nonsense in a public school voice is not exactly Isaiah Berlin, after all.0 -
I'd be surprised if Heidi Allen doesn't join this group.FrancisUrquhart said:Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
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Seumas MilneCyclefree said:AndyJS said:I suspect Angela Smith's "left-wing intellectuals" comment was aimed squarely at Seumas Milne.
“Intellectual” there being meant ironically, I hope. Someone who spouts Citizen “Wolfie” Smith nonsense in a public school voice is not exactly Isaiah Berlin, after all.
Aaron Bastani
Owen Jones
Take your pick....0 -
Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.0 -
Our relationship with Europe went badly wrong during the 2010-2015 period with cabinet ministers normalising the idea of Brexit. The Lib Dems did nothing to stop it.IanB2 said:
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.Roger said:The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
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The day that Brexit died? Time will tell.0
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Well that guy is...DonTsInferno_ said:‘We’re fucked’
https://twitter.com/elaswr/status/1097450695618449408?s=210 -
Well we'd probably notice in the Lib Dems...FrancisUrquhart said:Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
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Plenty of 50/1 still available on this man:
https://twitter.com/JonAshworth/status/10974385185431101440 -
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Otoh Cameron would have been gone if the LibDems had not propped him up from 2010 onwards (and incidentally wrecked their own party and its main policies: AV and the EU).IanB2 said:
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.Roger said:The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
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I do not need to humour you as I still think she will get a dealMarqueeMark said:
If May gets her deal through at the end of March (just humour me!), then THAT is when Corbyn is most at risk. He will have failed to prevent Brexit. And without the cover of Brexit, Labour MPs have the stark issue of anti-semitism to focus on.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The next few months will be fascinating and I expect more labour mps will leave labour for this groupkinabalu said:
I need to process properly but initial thoughts -Big_G_NorthWales said:Maybe your hope for a GE is somewhat diminished
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Perhaps more.
If it gains real momentum (forgive the pun) we may see a public groundswell towards them and of course will damage Corbyn.
A GE may come along but I am not expecting one this year
And as you say, Corbyn will then be very exposed0 -
At least it will give Mr Barnier something new to talk about when Corbyn goes to see him this week.0
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See their latest tweetDecrepitJohnL said:Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.0 -
How many Tory MPs to defect would it take for Con+DUP to lose its majority?FrancisUrquhart said:Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
I make it seven.
If they get those seven (plus more Labour MPs) then that would be big - but can they do it in time to affect Brexit?0 -
Methinks he doth protest too much...williamglenn said:0 -
He does.Richard_Nabavi said:
Methinks he doth protest too much...williamglenn said:0 -
That is a long hill to climb, but lets hope they can make this workSouthamObserver said:It’s going to be a long hard slog, but having something to believe in again feels like it might be magnificent.
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https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1097445622393774081Casino_Royale said:
He does.Richard_Nabavi said:
Methinks he doth protest too much...williamglenn said:0 -
I think it’ll be a wait and see.AndyJS said:
I'd be surprised if Heidi Allen doesn't join this group.FrancisUrquhart said:Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
The Conservatives already have a strong quasi-independent pro-EU caucus within the party.0 -
It already looks like there will be two sets of gnomes fishing in the same garden pond.....Richard_Nabavi said:Mischievous thought: I wonder if any LibDems MPs might be tempted?
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I agree with everything in your post. I loathe the labour leadership for the reasons you give and many more. I wouldn't vote for Corbyn's labour under any circumstances. But this is hopefully about a new grouping that will stop people like me (and maybe you) having nowhere to go. I can't see Berger being the magnet that will get this new grouping off the ground. Umunna on the other hand or Cooper (if she could be persuaded to join) might.Cyclefree said:
With great respect, I don’t think you have the first clue of how women feel about being slighted in the work place. The things I have described above have happened to every single woman of my acquaintance, including myself, no matter what the industry or sector or their political views or age. And it is still going on.Roger said:
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
Labour looks like an old-fashioned mysogynistic party where the behaviour of individual men, including those close to the leadership, is as bad as as any seen anywhere.
I’ve no idea whether this grouping will be successful. I do know one of the women closely involved in it (not Luciana) and I know that she has been appallingly bullied and treated by those within Labour who claim to be in favour of womens’ rights in theory but cannot stomach any individual woman speaking up for herself in practice.
That strikes with a chord with rather more women across the political spectrum than you might suppose.0 -
Don't agree with that. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who won't vote Tory but can't vote Labour. It won't win them seats in Middle England but it'll give them the credibility they need to contest their target areas.Danny565 said:
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).Chris said:
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.Danny565 said:
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.IanB2 said:
See their latest tweetDecrepitJohnL said:Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.0 -
I suspect "team" is one of their SpAdsDecrepitJohnL said:
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.IanB2 said:
See their latest tweetDecrepitJohnL said:Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.0 -
Within 9 months of launching in March 1981 the SDP were on 40-50% in the polls. That'll be difficult for this grouping to emulate.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-19830 -
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.Roger said:The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
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Labour's now lost 5% of its MPs elected in 20170
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Looks like they could soon be eight: from Woodcock: "It was inspiring and humbling to see my friends setting out why they are leaving the Labour Party to start something new. A sad day for them but the beginning of a time of great hope for all those of us who want our country and our politics to change."0
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My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.El_Capitano said:
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.Roger said:The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
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Seven MPs contesting seven seats means that 90 per cent (give or take) of the electorate won't be able to vote for this new lot anyway.Endillion said:
Don't agree with that. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who won't vote Tory but can't vote Labour. It won't win them seats in Middle England but it'll give them the credibility they need to contest their target areas.Danny565 said:
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).Chris said:
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.Danny565 said:
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
What the Seven really need now is a big name in Corbyn's frontbench team to join them. Someone who has tried to do the right thing, but been treated with contempt.
Time to leave, Keir Starmer.....0 -
Luciana Berger standing for the new party in Hendon or Bury would probably have a very good chance.0
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Well, we'll soon find out, but I don't think "Middle England" is going to be at all attracted to a party which makes EU membership, and generally retaining the status quo, its main objectives.Endillion said:
Don't agree with that. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who won't vote Tory but can't vote Labour. It won't win them seats in Middle England but it'll give them the credibility they need to contest their target areas.Danny565 said:
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).Chris said:
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.Danny565 said:
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
IMO, this party's main market (to the extent it has one at all) will be wealthy liberals/lefties, but there's very few marginal seats with a significant concentration of them (Kensington is an exception, admittedly) - most live in ultra-safe Labour seats.0 -
Doesn’t this split make it less likely that a second referendum will take place? Corbyn no longer needs to heed the Labour Europhiles, as they are tainted with disloyalty.0
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I hope potential rebels not only remember what followed the SDP formation, then the alliance, but also WHY it happened.
You seem tp forget that it was only post-Falklands War that the Tories won out. Between March and June 1982 the Tories rose from 31 per cent to 45 per cent, the Alliance fell from 33 per cent to 28 per cent and Labour fell from 33 per cent to 25 per cent. No doubt it’s oversimplified to say that The War meant that Tories who’d defected to the Alliance returned to the Tories, whereas those who’d defected from Labour remained defectors. Even if oversimplified, it needs explaining why since 1968, a rising vote for the centre party (Liberals as was) had hurt the Tories most, but after the Falklands War, Labour took the greatest hit.0 -
Since when were successful parties built from the grassroots up? Unusually, Corbyn's Labour is one such movement, although that was a parasite that infected a pre-existing host.SouthamObserver said:
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
All successful parties are driven from the top down. In this case, where only the top exists at the moment, that has to be even more so than normal.0 -
Chipping Barnet might be her best bet; it seems to be swinging more heavily to Labour than the neighbouring areas, and Theresa Villiers is a Brexiteer in a Remain area.SouthamObserver said:Luciana Berger standing for the new party in Hendon or Bury would probably have a very good chance.
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Clearly, both sides are working on a compromise whilst absolutely denying there’ll be any such thing.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1097445622393774081Casino_Royale said:
He does.Richard_Nabavi said:
Methinks he doth protest too much...williamglenn said:0 -
Or subject to a DDoS attack.DecrepitJohnL said:
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.IanB2 said:
See their latest tweetDecrepitJohnL said:Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.0
