politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today could be the day that Corbyn’s Labour Party finally spli
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I don't think Tory MPs will join this breakaway group, but I think it is very likely that some Tory MPs will similarly choose to become independents, and they might work with the Labour refuseniks on specific issues. It could well be a large group of ex-Tory MPs if we're heading for a no-deal crash-out.MaxPB said:Distinct lack of Tories in that group. Solid work by the whips. Hopefully we can stop this stupid deselection game otherwise some MPs who have nothing to lose will join this breakaway.
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I assume Hinds has been instructed to say as little as possible about TIG. Just agree with their criticism of Corbyn...brendan16 said:Who gets put up first to defend the Corbyn position on BBC News - Owen Jones?! Seriously?
The Tories have at least put up the Education Secretary.0 -
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Well, there's nothing there I disagree with. Since I've voted Conservative all my life, I think that probably means there's not much there that most people could disagree with. Which means it says nothing at all.TheWhiteRabbit said:Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.
A strong economy means we can invest in our public services. We believe the collective provision of public services and the NHS can be delivered through government action, improving health and educational life chances, protecting the public, safeguarding the vulnerable, ensuring dignity at every stage of life and placing individuals at the heart of decision-making.
The people of this country have the ability to create fairer, more prosperous communities for present and future generations. We believe that this creativity is best realised in a society which fosters individual freedom and supports all families.
The barriers of poverty, prejudice and discrimination facing individuals should be removed and advancement occur on the basis of merit, with inequalities reduced through the extension of opportunity, giving individuals the skills and means to open new doors and fulfil their ambitions.
Individuals are capable of taking responsibility if opportunities are offered to them, everybody can and should make a contribution to society and that contribution should be recognised. Paid work should be secure and pay should be fair.
Our free media, the rule of law, and our open, tolerant and respectful democratic society should be cherished and renewed.
We believe that our parliamentary democracy in which our elected representatives deliberate, decide and provide leadership, held accountable by their whole electorate is the best system of representing the views of the British people.
In order to face the challenges and opportunities presented by globalisation, migration and technological advances, we believe the multilateral, international rules-based order must be strengthened and reformed. We believe in maintaining strong alliances with our closest European and international allies on trade, regulation, defence, security and counter-terrorism
As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change.
Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.0 -
Surely the fact that Momentum's response is being given any air time confirms that splitting is the correct idea..Scott_P said:0 -
The 1980s showed how difficult it was for a breakaway party, even in alliance with the Liberals, and even with more than two dozen MPs including some really big names.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
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Yep, a large number today would be news for a few days, but it would much better to make it seem like a party gaining new followers. If they could get a few MPs a week the press would have a field day speculating about who is next, and it would keep them in the limelight.FrancisUrquhart said:If they were really cunning they will have some more ready to leave in the coming days, where they can claim we were inspired by them, corbyn outriders disgust me in their reaction to this news..and a few tories who will claim may / brexit / etc.
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Labour MP on Sky sounding ambivalent about staying.
"A Jewish woman has been hounded out of the Labour party. Which side of that line are we on?"0 -
She hasn't got the political skills to even come close to Shirley - but she is still the best of this bunch.AndyJS said:Luciana Berger is reminding me very slightly of Shirley Williams at this press conference.
I find it hilarious that Chuka calls for honesty.0 -
I like the branding..fresh and modern.rottenborough said:0 -
No, I disagree. Not launching looks weak and unsure; as if they still want to return to Labour. They can't now: this break is irreversable (at least, not for many years until the bitterness is over). They should stake their ground and appeal to others to join them. At the moment, what would others be joining? Who knows.IanB2 said:
In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
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At least three of them have yet to update their Twitter profiles to remove references to being a Labour MP0
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Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.Brom said:Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents.
Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.0 -
That's Peter Kyle.Scott_P said:Labour MP on Sky sounding ambivalent about staying.
"A Jewish woman has been hounded out of the Labour party. Which side of that line are we on?"0 -
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.DonTsInferno_ said:Return of Ed Balls?
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And their shiny new web site now gives an http 503 error.0
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They have staked their ground and have made that appeal. They just haven't started to erect the paraphernalia of a new party that could deter Tory defectorsdavid_herdson said:
No, I disagree. Not launching looks weak and unsure; as if they still want to return to Labour. They can't now: this break is irreversable (at least, not for many years until the bitterness is over). They should stake their ground and appeal to others to join them. At the moment, what would others be joining? Who knows.IanB2 said:
In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
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Which marginal seat is that an aerial shot of??Slackbladder said:
I like the branding..fresh and modern.rottenborough said:
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https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1097445541980631041kinabalu said:As a Labour supporter I am worried and I think I am right to be worried. We saw what Macron was able to do in France. Formed a new Centrist Party - En Marche - and a couple of years later he sweeps to power. Dynamism, intellect, yes, but the main thing was that his timing was right. There is no reason, if he too has got the timing right, why Mike Gapes cannot do exactly the same here.
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technically in breach of the GDPR as their privacy policy is #404, but yes, I agreeSlackbladder said:
I like the branding..fresh and modern.rottenborough said:0 -
The market for revolutions is a thin one.Dura_Ace said:
This is managerial balls. I prefer Corbo's Sturm und Drang.TheWhiteRabbit said:Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy....
SNIP
As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change.
Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.
As Lenin said; without a revolutionary theory there can be no revolutionary movement. There is no theory here.
Particularly after the Brexit debacle.0 -
The whole site could have used some proof-reading. I'd give examples but it has crashed.Essexit said:
Just the one taxpayer?TheWhiteRabbit said:Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.
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So, the company backing it ("Gemini A Ltd") was registered 2 days ago by Gavin Shuker.0
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At least 3 of today's 7 all but left Labour a while ago._Anazina_ said:
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.Brom said:Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents.
Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.0 -
I think that their server has crashed.0
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Blair said yesterday that people are going to be very surprised how many voters are looking for a new centrist home.MarqueeMark said:
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.DonTsInferno_ said:Return of Ed Balls?
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.0 -
I think David is (unusually) wrong as well.IanB2 said:
They have staked their ground and have made that appeal. They just haven't started to erect the paraphernalia of a new party that could deter Tory defectorsdavid_herdson said:
No, I disagree. Not launching looks weak and unsure; as if they still want to return to Labour. They can't now: this break is irreversable (at least, not for many years until the bitterness is over). They should stake their ground and appeal to others to join them. At the moment, what would others be joining? Who knows.IanB2 said:
In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
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South Cambridgeshire District Council went Lib Dem at the last locals. She's the one MP who probably has a better chance of re-election if she does defect._Anazina_ said:
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.Brom said:Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents.
Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.0 -
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
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I need to process properly but initial thoughts -Big_G_NorthWales said:Maybe your hope for a GE is somewhat diminished
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Perhaps more.0 -
From his lips to God's ears! The doomsday clock moves back a notch as Labour's distance from a majority increases by 10%.Scott_P said:0 -
We have to remember that the SDP attracted only 1 Tory MP defector IIRC - so I don't see the new 'group' attracting many more this time round.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.0 -
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OGH and TSE must still be sharing their tent up that mountain; no new thread.0
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I think there will be more Tory defectors than the SDP got due to Brexit.oxfordsimon said:We have to remember that the SDP attracted only 1 Tory MP defector IIRC - so I don't see the new 'group' attracting many more this time round.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.0 -
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"Our aim is to pursue policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology, taking a long-term perspective to the challenges of the 21st century in the national interest,"Endillion said:
Well, there's nothing there I disagree with. Since I've voted Conservative all my life, I think that probably means there's not much there that most people could disagree with. Which means it says nothing at all.TheWhiteRabbit said:Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.
A strong economy means we can invest in our public services. We believe the collective provision of public services and the NHS can be delivered through government action, improving health and educational life chances, protecting the public, safeguarding the vulnerable, ensuring dignity at every stage of life and placing individuals at the heart of decision-making.
The people of this country have the ability to create fairer, more prosperous communities for present and future generations. We believe that this creativity is best realised in a society which fosters individual freedom and supports all families.
The barriers of poverty, prejudice and discrimination facing individuals should be removed and advancement occur on the basis of merit, with inequalities reduced through the extension of opportunity, giving individuals the skills and means to open new doors and fulfil their ambitions.
Individuals are capable of taking responsibility if opportunities are offered to them, everybody can and should make a contribution to society and that contribution should be recognised. Paid work should be secure and pay should be fair.
As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change.
Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.
In the current climate, this is a pretty revolutionary and unique approach.0 -
They really should have called themselves the centrist dad party as a placeholder.0
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Soubry Woolaston and the deselected but more importantly there's a home for the disaffected.oxfordsimon said:We have to remember that the SDP attracted only 1 Tory MP defector IIRC - so I don't see the new 'group' attracting many more this time round.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.0 -
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism0 -
His "radar" also told him that Theresa May had a guaranteed landslide coming her way, and that Labour would shed masses of votes to the Lib Dems in 2017 unless they took a Remain position, so....rottenborough said:
Blair said yesterday that people are going to be very surprised how many voters are looking for a new centrist home.MarqueeMark said:
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.DonTsInferno_ said:Return of Ed Balls?
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.0 -
This inevitably reminds me of the launch of the SDP when a much younger less cynical DavidL got very excited.
The problem for me now is that this is clearly going to be an unequivocally pro-EU group. I suspect I may agree with them on many other matters but that's a deal breaker, at least until Brexit is bedded in.
I wonder if they have been smart enough to hold back some recruits to keep the story going?0 -
So in other words they are slightly rerunning the last Labour leadership election with a pretty centrist/left of centre pitch (a la Cooper et al back then) and hoping that whereas people then were happy to back Corbyn for lolz at that time, they might now realise what a shocking error that was.0
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We know there are two or three Con MPs who are effectively sitting as Independents to begin with, plus the same again who are most of the way there. Whether they jump or not is less important than it might seem.GIN1138 said:
I think there will be more Tory defectors than the SDP got due to Brexit.oxfordsimon said:We have to remember that the SDP attracted only 1 Tory MP defector IIRC - so I don't see the new 'group' attracting many more this time round.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.0 -
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Brokeback Mountain 2??IanB2 said:OGH and TSE must still be sharing their tent up that mountain; no new thread.
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Their server has crashed because a lot of people are trying to sign up
I don't think viewing this through the paradigm of the SDP is wise. This has been thought through- with lessons learned from Macron etc. Its only the beginning of something which may accelerate if they get a positive response.
They will have coordinated plans for the Libdems and the Tory left- in my view only one of the Tory or labour parties survive this- the question will be which one.0 -
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We saw that with the MP defections to UKIP, but it then came to be seen as shifty, as Reckless was thought to have been dishonest in the timing of his defection.glw said:
Yep, a large number today would be news for a few days, but it would much better to make it seem like a party gaining new followers. If they could get a few MPs a week the press would have a field day speculating about who is next, and it would keep them in the limelight.FrancisUrquhart said:If they were really cunning they will have some more ready to leave in the coming days, where they can claim we were inspired by them, corbyn outriders disgust me in their reaction to this news..and a few tories who will claim may / brexit / etc.
Any MP who is late to defect has to answer why later was better than earlier. Orchestrating a dripfeed would risk looking contrived.0 -
The endorsement they've been waiting for.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1097440986257649664
Has Tommy Robinson pronounced?
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Their twitter following is rising by about 1,000 every five or six minutes. Which means nothing, of course.rottenborough said:
Blair said yesterday that people are going to be very surprised how many voters are looking for a new centrist home.MarqueeMark said:
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.DonTsInferno_ said:Return of Ed Balls?
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.0 -
The circumstances of that one Tory defector were rather specific.oxfordsimon said:We have to remember that the SDP attracted only 1 Tory MP defector IIRC - so I don't see the new 'group' attracting many more this time round.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.0 -
Sounds good, but I suspect that the public won't be all that keen to hear many of those truths.JonathanD said:"Our aim is to pursue policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology, taking a long-term perspective to the challenges of the 21st century in the national interest,"
In the current climate, this is a pretty revolutionary and unique approach.0 -
the independents against an independent uk party?0
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Good point. She should go for it.El_Capitano said:
South Cambridgeshire District Council went Lib Dem at the last locals. She's the one MP who probably has a better chance of re-election if she does defect._Anazina_ said:
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.Brom said:Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents.
Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.0 -
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats. Chuka could even get up to 30% in his seat if he's lucky.0 -
As said upthread, the last Labour leadership election pitch was we agree with Jezza.TOPPING said:So in other words they are slightly rerunning the last Labour leadership election with a pretty centrist/left of centre pitch (a la Cooper et al back then) and hoping that whereas people then were happy to back Corbyn for lolz at that time, they might now realise what a shocking error that was.
This is not that0 -
Question of the day: What persuaded Chuka to hold off until OGH was out of circulation>?Slackbladder said:
Brokeback Mountain 2??IanB2 said:OGH and TSE must still be sharing their tent up that mountain; no new thread.
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Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?0
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I presume these new MPs will be wanting to have their stance affirmed by the electorate at the earliest opportunity.0
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Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.0
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Remarkable how like the Brexit hardliners that sounds.eek said:0 -
Ann Coffey, Chris Leslie, Chuka Umunna and Luciana Berger were all "Hostile" on Corbyn's famous 'Core Group Plus' list.
Angela Smith was Core Group Negative
Gavin Shuker and Mike Gaps were "Neutral but not Hostile"0 -
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
Do you really believe Umunna when he says that about building from the grassroots and not having the answers? If you want voters to agree with you, you have to make them think it was their idea, a smooth talking politico like Chuka knows that better than most. They are just using a tried and tested strategy of throwing out vague sound bites whilst saying they’ll listen.SouthamObserver said:
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
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SouthamObserver said:
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
Spot on.0 -
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism0 -
And quite possibly the Tory one, too.rkrkrk said:Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.
Which is presumably why they're avoiding the SDP mistake of casting themselves as a replacement for Labour.0 -
I trust SO has already registered his support?_Anazina_ said:SouthamObserver said:
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.david_herdson said:
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.Morris_Dancer said:Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
Spot on.0 -
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.0 -
Can't believe there hasn't been a serious discussion behind the scenes on that.IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
a sort of alliance?murali_s said:
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.0 -
It’s going to be a long hard slog, but having something to believe in again feels like it might be magnificent.0
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I doubt that they would poll many votes beyond those who would otherwise have voted Libdem.rkrkrk said:
If its Chukka and 4/5 Labour MPs standing on an anti-Brexit platform... they are going to be taking Labour voters predominantly, not Tory votes. So they will make it much more likely that the Tories win those marginals.Gallowgate said:
No. Tories need to win marginals too.rkrkrk said:
This presumably isn't correct. If their plan is to target marginals, then their plan is to ensure that the Tories win the next election.Scott_P said:
Their best hope of retaining their seats is surely to stand where they are already known/where Brexit is the most salient issue and Labour are popular.
If on the other hand, they stood against Kate Hoey in Vauxhall, well frankly they'd get plenty of Labour support and probably win the seat.0 -
Like.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism0 -
There is a new party in town - The Brexit Party!!0
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Just looked at his details for his Hove seat. His majority in 2015 - 1,236. In 2017 - 18,757. There must be a monster Remain effect in that seat?williamglenn said:
That's Peter Kyle.Scott_P said:Labour MP on Sky sounding ambivalent about staying.
"A Jewish woman has been hounded out of the Labour party. Which side of that line are we on?"0 -
Damn straight...SouthamObserver said:It’s going to be a long hard slog, but having something to believe in again feels like it might be magnificent.
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Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".IanB2 said:
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratingsDanny565 said:Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.0 -
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I thought that. However, there was an attack on the LDs too in there. "Lost the trust of the electorate".AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Which seemed curious.0 -
No indeed - as I said, they have learned from that and how.Scott_P said:
As said upthread, the last Labour leadership election pitch was we agree with Jezza.TOPPING said:So in other words they are slightly rerunning the last Labour leadership election with a pretty centrist/left of centre pitch (a la Cooper et al back then) and hoping that whereas people then were happy to back Corbyn for lolz at that time, they might now realise what a shocking error that was.
This is not that0 -
That's catchyFrancisUrquhart said:They really should have called themselves the centrist dad party as a placeholder.
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Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.0
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The more thinking members of Jezza's inner cabinet have been terrified this would happen for months Stephen Bush has written in Newstatesman recently.TheWhiteRabbit said:
a sort of alliance?murali_s said:
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.
Yet, nobody seemed prepared to try and stop it by doing anything about the causes.
Jezza's team have only themselves to blame for this.0 -
Don't you think that those who share their criticism of Corbyn and anti Semitism in Labour have already removed their support in current polling from Labour. Surely this is the reason why Conservatives are polling so high. So many have said on here that Labour should be well ahead in the polls. Surely this new movement is appealing to those who have already not supporting Corbyn and Labour in the polls.rkrkrk said:Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.
It could actually hit Tory share in the polls as much if not more than Labour.
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...all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men....Roger said:
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.Cyclefree said:
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.Roger said:
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.oxfordsimon said:
Chuka said nothing memorableRoger said:Umnuna much the best.....
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
I'm pretty sure that's not the limited view you imagine it might be.0 -
The Prescott role then?IanB2 said:Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
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But clearly true, going on their poll ratings. Although I thought that comment was prefaced by "major parties"?dixiedean said:
I thought that. However, there was an attack on the LDs too in there. "Lost the trust of the electorate".AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Which seemed curious.0 -
A premature view.murali_s said:
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.
We shouldn't discount the effect that a new Farage party will have on the Tory vote.
The next election could see many seats won with remarkably low vote shares with FPTP . Now there is a bet in there somewhere.
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Snap election?murali_s said:
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.AndyJS said:Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.0 -
If they become cast as Labour in exile, for sure. But I reckon Chuka and the others have bigger hopes.Scrapheap_as_was said:
The Prescott role then?IanB2 said:Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
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That's how a lot of people to your left felt when Corbyn was elected Labour leader. Look how well that turned out for them.SouthamObserver said:It’s going to be a long hard slog, but having something to believe in again feels like it might be magnificent.
Be careful of what happens when your dreams come true.0
