politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”
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For the whole twelve days we’ve had one out of the last 47 years.Scott_P said:Nemtynakht said:That sums up my opinion of the continuity remain. So many people insulting the intelligence of those who voted Leave, and still no positI’ve campaign. If they are going to morph into rejoin they are going to have to rethink
Trade deals with Japan and others is a positive.0 -
I think the two extreme wings will still find reasons not to back it.edmundintokyo said:So say TMay calls an election, with her current deal in the manifesto, and gets back in. How much of a majority do we reckon she needs to pass her deal?
Does her whole party suck it up because it was in the manifesto? Do any of the opposition MPs say, "she beat us fair and square, better giver her the deal"? Or are all the people who are currently opposed still opposed, and a similar proportion of the new MPs to boot, so she needs like 75% of the seats to make up for the 25% who are still voting against?0 -
I think they'd find it harder to vote against a deal if the public had voted them into a majority with that deal in the manifesto.FrancisUrquhart said:
Thing is even if the the most favourable polls are around correct for the tories, may still wouldn’t end up with a particularly big majority and a significant minority of her own party still against anything other than remain-ing/ BINO.Barnesian said:
I think Rejoin is a hopeless sell.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, indeed. It's easier to castigate the heretics than seek to persuade them.
Mr. Barnesian, hmm. Whether that flies may depend on whether we've actually left. Remain is a much easier sell than Rejoin.
I'm assuming she calls a GE because she can't get her deal through, won't allow a crash out, and thinks a GE is the best bet rather than a 2nd referendum. So we'd still be in.
And then we are still stuck in the loop of parliament not wanting any particular outcome.0 -
I'm working on the assumption that the declaration on the future relationship would ultimately be implemented as described. C) is the only one where I think there's a serious risk of backsliding.ralphmalph said:
T Mays deal is not an end state, it is a period whilst the end state is negotiated.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.0 -
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I’m looking forward to the day Scotland vote marginally to leave the U.K. and the SNP come up with a plan to still enforce U.K. law, and set employment policy in line with the EEEEEvil Tories in Westminster. Because that will respect those who didn’t want to leave!malcolmg said:
Now is not the time as the Tories like to say when democracy does not suit themMarqueeMark said:
Win a referendum - and we'll implement it.malcolmg said:
LOL, only when it suits.MarqueeMark said:
Except, we use democracy. Unlike revolutionary France. Or the EU.Scott_P said:
Independence means independence.0 -
The model's final projection on 7th June showed Labour winning only one of the seven seats actually taken in Scotland. In East Lothian Labour was predicted to come third - yet won the seat.Tissue_Price said:0 -
The independent was very pleasantly surprised to read that news this morning. Her strength is everything to do with her and very little to do with Hugo Swire who is no better or worse than several hundred other MPs with apparently safe seats - which is not very good at all.justin124 said:
I believe the Yougov model showed the Independendent winning in 2017 - though she fell far short.It needs to be recalled though that even the final eve of poll predictions from the Yougov model in 2017 were very 'hit and miss'. Of the 7 seats won by Labour in Scotland the model only predicted 1 - in East Lothian Labour was shown in third place behind the Tories. Similarly , it had Labour winning both seats in Pembrokeshire - yet both stayed Tory.AlastairMeeks said:
There’s a very strong independent there.Sean_F said:FPT That's a fascinating survey from Yougov. Hugo Swire must really have upset his voters.
Apparently the model shows Labour increasing its majorities in many seats won in 2017 - possibly some indication of a first term incumbency bonus.
Having said that the Tories will still be red hot favourite next time out.. Claire Wright is a very hard core remainer and politically pretty close to Corbynite and makes no secret of it - and this is demographically still a very conservative area.0 -
That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.edmundintokyo said:So say TMay calls an election, with her current deal in the manifesto, and gets back in. How much of a majority do we reckon she needs to pass her deal?
Does her whole party suck it up because it was in the manifesto? Do any of the opposition MPs say, "she beat us fair and square, better give the voters the deal they voted for"? Or are all the people who are currently opposed still opposed, and a similar proportion of the new MPs to boot, so she needs like 75% of the seats to make up for the 25% who are still voting against?
For all these reasons, a GE doesn't seem to be a way of resolving the issue whatever happens. Of course that doesn't mean that one can't happen, almost by accident, but it does mean that it seems unlikely that Theresa May will deliberately seek a GE.0 -
Neither the ERG nor some Labour MPs have any issue standing on a manifesto then voting against itRichard_Nabavi said:That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.
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Yes but they'd make a hell of a fuss about this particular point before it even got to issuing the manifesto, accompanied by lots of threats.Scott_P said:
Neither the ERG nor some Labour MPs have any issue standing on a manifesto then voting against itRichard_Nabavi said:That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.
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If we end up trapped in the backstop then it is an end state.ralphmalph said:
T Mays deal is not an end state, it is a period whilst the end state is negotiated.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.0 -
Oh god, are these suckers really going to take May's word for it again? When will they learn?Scott_P said:0 -
We're a net contributor to the EU budget. You might think that the benefits of membership outweigh our net contribution, but that's deeply arguable, at best. In simple terms, it still costs us money.Scott_P said:
Er, no we don't.Endillion said:Er, we still do currently make large net payments to Brussels, though?
We make large payment to Brussels, which generate a net return.0 -
They either stand on the manifesto, or defect.Richard_Nabavi said:Yes but they'd make a hell of a fuss about this particular point before it even got to issuing the manifesto, accompanied by lots of threats.
Which is most likely to get them elected?0 -
So after leaving the UK to its rumpiness, the SNP will set aside Scotland's separate legal system and 'enforce U.K. law'? An interesting proposition.Nemtynakht said:
I’m looking forward to the day Scotland vote marginally to leave the U.K. and the SNP come up with a plan to still enforce U.K. law, and set employment policy in line with the EEEEEvil Tories in Westminster. Because that will respect those who didn’t want to leave!malcolmg said:
Now is not the time as the Tories like to say when democracy does not suit themMarqueeMark said:
Win a referendum - and we'll implement it.malcolmg said:
LOL, only when it suits.MarqueeMark said:
Except, we use democracy. Unlike revolutionary France. Or the EU.Scott_P said:
Independence means independence.0 -
Scotland was very difficult to predict at the last election because so many seats were close 3-way battles.justin124 said:
The model's final projection on 7th June showed Labour winning only one of the seven seats actually taken in Scotland. In East Lothian Labour was predicted to come third - yet won the seat.Tissue_Price said:0 -
However we already have our Scottish Legal system and will for sure improve on the eeeeviil parsimonious employment policy.Nemtynakht said:
I’m looking forward to the day Scotland vote marginally to leave the U.K. and the SNP come up with a plan to still enforce U.K. law, and set employment policy in line with the EEEEEvil Tories in Westminster. Because that will respect those who didn’t want to leave!malcolmg said:
Now is not the time as the Tories like to say when democracy does not suit themMarqueeMark said:
Win a referendum - and we'll implement it.malcolmg said:
LOL, only when it suits.MarqueeMark said:
Except, we use democracy. Unlike revolutionary France. Or the EU.Scott_P said:
Independence means independence.0 -
What would they threaten her with? She doesn't need their votes, she's dissolving parliament. I mean, they could refuse to run as Conservative candidates, but that's fine by her...Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes but they'd make a hell of a fuss about this particular point before it even got to issuing the manifesto, accompanied by lots of threats.Scott_P said:
Neither the ERG nor some Labour MPs have any issue standing on a manifesto then voting against itRichard_Nabavi said:That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.
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May up now0
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I think any double digit working majority would suffice. The key key is the one which unlocks the cuffs chaining her to the DUP.edmundintokyo said:So say TMay calls an election, with her current deal in the manifesto, and gets back in. How much of a majority do we reckon she needs to pass her deal?
Does her whole party suck it up because it was in the manifesto? Do any of the opposition MPs say, "she beat us fair and square, better give the voters the deal they voted for"? Or are all the people who are currently opposed still opposed, and a similar proportion of the new MPs to boot, so she needs like 75% of the seats to make up for the 25% who are still voting against?0 -
This should be true, but I've seen nothing to convince me that Labour wouldn't just release a manifesto claiming to honour the result of the referendum, spend the entire campaign giving nods and winks to Remain supporters that actually they support a second referendum, and then watching as the suckers vote for them again in their millions.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes but they'd make a hell of a fuss about this particular point before it even got to issuing the manifesto, accompanied by lots of threats.Scott_P said:
Neither the ERG nor some Labour MPs have any issue standing on a manifesto then voting against itRichard_Nabavi said:That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.
I'm beginning to suspect that Starmer is actually fully behind Corbyn, and accepts his position as cover for the leadership's pro-Brexit agenda.
Edit: now realise the original point meant the Conservatives. I think Labour could get round it, and I suspect in practice the Conservatives would also manage.0 -
Not so. The clock has run down by many days.....Scott_P said:0 -
Strong and stable surely?Scott_P said:0 -
Corbyn told a funny joke!0
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There is a fair bit in that , though it is interesting that the eve of poll prediction still had Labour in third place in East Lothian - despite the fact that by that late stage it was being widely touted as a likely Labour gain. I also suspect that across Scotland many tactical voters ended up confusing themselves - in particular, many former Labour voters switched to the Tories - on the basis that Labour had ceased to be competitive - only to subsequently discover that they had no need to do so!Had it not been for such misdirection, Labour would probably have picked up Lanark & Hamilton East and Inverclyde - plus several other seats.Andy_JS said:
Scotland was very difficult to predict at the last election because so many seats were close 3-way battles.justin124 said:
The model's final projection on 7th June showed Labour winning only one of the seven seats actually taken in Scotland. In East Lothian Labour was predicted to come third - yet won the seat.Tissue_Price said:0 -
Because that would be in seine.....Nemtynakht said:0 -
Point of order: do we actually pay them in Pounds, or Euros?Nemtynakht said:0 -
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:0 -
It would certainly be easier for Labour, because their proposal could be less specific. Still, the People's Vote crew would be trying hard to get a commitment to another referendum, and they'd have the membership on their side.Endillion said:
This should be true, but I've seen nothing to convince me that Labour wouldn't just release a manifesto claiming to honour the result of the referendum, spend the entire campaign giving nods and winks to Remain supporters that actually they support a second referendum, and then watching as the suckers vote for them again in their millions.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes but they'd make a hell of a fuss about this particular point before it even got to issuing the manifesto, accompanied by lots of threats.Scott_P said:
Neither the ERG nor some Labour MPs have any issue standing on a manifesto then voting against itRichard_Nabavi said:That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.
I'm beginning to suspect that Starmer is actually fully behind Corbyn, and accepts his position as cover for the leadership's pro-Brexit agenda.
Edit: now realise the original point meant the Conservatives. I think Labour could get round it, and I suspect in practice the Conservatives would also manage.0 -
Yeah, I think the People's Vote crowd would generate enough noise that Labour wouldn't be able to get their narriative on non-Brexit matters into the spotlight.Richard_Nabavi said:
It would certainly be easier for Labour, because their proposal could be less specific. Still, the People's Vote crew would be trying hard to get a commitment to another referendum, and they'd have the membership on their side.Endillion said:
This should be true, but I've seen nothing to convince me that Labour wouldn't just release a manifesto claiming to honour the result of the referendum, spend the entire campaign giving nods and winks to Remain supporters that actually they support a second referendum, and then watching as the suckers vote for them again in their millions.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes but they'd make a hell of a fuss about this particular point before it even got to issuing the manifesto, accompanied by lots of threats.Scott_P said:
Neither the ERG nor some Labour MPs have any issue standing on a manifesto then voting against itRichard_Nabavi said:That's certainly a good question, but the bigger problem is how to even agree a manifesto if the ERG etc persist in their current stance. For that matter, a similar problem would apply to Labour.
I'm beginning to suspect that Starmer is actually fully behind Corbyn, and accepts his position as cover for the leadership's pro-Brexit agenda.
Edit: now realise the original point meant the Conservatives. I think Labour could get round it, and I suspect in practice the Conservatives would also manage.0 -
Yes but Scottish Law should be changed to reflect U.K. law in perpuity.malcolmg said:
However we already have our Scottish Legal system and will for sure improve on the eeeeviil parsimonious employment policy.Nemtynakht said:
I’m looking forward to the day Scotland vote marginally to leave the U.K. and the SNP come up with a plan to still enforce U.K. law, and set employment policy in line with the EEEEEvil Tories in Westminster. Because that will respect those who didn’t want to leave!malcolmg said:
Now is not the time as the Tories like to say when democracy does not suit themMarqueeMark said:
Win a referendum - and we'll implement it.malcolmg said:
LOL, only when it suits.MarqueeMark said:
Except, we use democracy. Unlike revolutionary France. Or the EU.Scott_P said:
Independence means independence.0 -
I suspect it is by mouse clickEndillion said:
Point of order: do we actually pay them in Pounds, or Euros?Nemtynakht said:0 -
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We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that she has antereograde amnesia. Somebody should give her a photo of Nick Timothy with "Don't believe his lies" written underneathviewcode said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:0 -
She is running the clock down.viewcode said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:
She is being spectacularly good at it. Admittedly, the only thing you could ever claim she has been spectacularly good at. But she's helped by the fact that everyone with any competing notion has been spectacularly shite.
She has only ever had one end-point. The HoC having one decision to make, five to midnight: May's Shit Deal vs. No Deal.
She is being fed information from some EU Heads of State that despite the facade, they REALLY don't want crash out no deal. These latest press pieces, saying that she now seems to believe "No Deal? No biggy....." can only help ratchet up the tension in those capitals.
All she needs to do is hold the line. She is happy enough for her Shit Deal to be implemented. If the EU blink and give her something last minute on the backstop - bonus.0 -
That was particularly barmy.Scott_P said:0 -
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I think the amount of money we need to pay is denominated in Euros, but the money we pay is in Pounds. The EU uses Euros for accounting purposes, and the UK uses GBP. So they would charge us (say) 100 Euros, and we would pay them the pound equivalent, say £85. Happy to be corrected.Endillion said:
Point of order: do we actually pay them in Pounds, or Euros?Nemtynakht said:0 -
Once rUK law is subsumed into permanent EU vassalage, I daresay we can come to some arrangement.Nemtynakht said:
Yes but Scottish Law should be changed to reflect U.K. law in perpuity.malcolmg said:
However we already have our Scottish Legal system and will for sure improve on the eeeeviil parsimonious employment policy.Nemtynakht said:
I’m looking forward to the day Scotland vote marginally to leave the U.K. and the SNP come up with a plan to still enforce U.K. law, and set employment policy in line with the EEEEEvil Tories in Westminster. Because that will respect those who didn’t want to leave!malcolmg said:
Now is not the time as the Tories like to say when democracy does not suit themMarqueeMark said:
Win a referendum - and we'll implement it.malcolmg said:
LOL, only when it suits.MarqueeMark said:
Except, we use democracy. Unlike revolutionary France. Or the EU.Scott_P said:
Independence means independence.0 -
Ian Blackford looks as if he is going to explode.
This debate is just stuck in the same place with no new ideas, no give or take, no statesmanship, and each and everyone of the mps need to get a grip
HOC in complete melt down just now0 -
May fiddles, while Brexit burns.Stereotomy said:
That was particularly barmy.Scott_P said:
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If the post-Brexit investigation team discover that somebody whispers "cease all motor functions" into her ear at regular intervals, I wouldn't be surprised...Stereotomy said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that she has antereograde amnesia. Somebody should give her a photo of Nick Timothy with "Don't believe his lies" written underneathviewcode said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:
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The Single Market is a good thing. But over 30 years our politicians did not secure democratic consent for the other stuff. And so a majority of people decided the costs outweighed the benefits. Hence we must leave - you can’t just look at a part and say “why are we giving that up” because that part is not available on a standalone basisCyclefree said:
As is the Single Market. We practically invented it. We pushed for it. We benefited from it. It is Britain's single most important contribution to the EU.SouthamObserver said:
FoM is in our interests. We are ending it.Alanbrooke said:
of course not, I very much doubt its an election winning issue in Spain, the domestic agenda on the other hand is. But like all secondary issues if its worth doing it will get done, we;d do the same in reverse if it was in our interest.SouthamObserver said:
He is overwhelmingly backed by Irish voters. But putting that to one side, do you think Spanish politicians are going to reap big electoral rewards by proposing to make it easier to immigrate to Spain?Alanbrooke said:
the Irish border shouldnt be an issuegeousSouthamObserver said:
You could see no reason why the Irish border would be an issue. If it were down to businesses it wouldn’t be.Alanbrooke said:
I see no reason in any case.SouthamObserver said:
“British citizensthat will change.Alanbrooke said:
No its just wild conjecture the spanish government basically is who we should listen toSouthamObserver said:
I am not doom-mongeribg, merely observing that only rich Brits wil insurance you’ll be fine.Alanbrooke said:
so in effect there will be some inconvenience but money is money and things will continueSouthamObserver said:
so whats all the doom mongering about ?
https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-sanchez-brits-rights-wont-change-after-brexit/
I have no prior knowledge but Id gu to Spain
And that Leadsom woman was going on this morning about it being an achievement that we were withdrawing from it. Stupid is too polite a word to use about her and her ilk.0 -
Trimble launching his legal "NO!!!!!" to the backstop will just be adding to the meltiness......Big_G_NorthWales said:Ian Blackford looks as if he is going to explode.
This debate is just stuck in the same place with no new ideas, no give or take, no statesmanship, and each and everyone of the mps need to get a grip
HOC in complete melt down just now0 -
Has he actually launched itMarqueeMark said:
Trimble launching his legal "NO!!!!!" to the backstop will just be adding to the meltiness......Big_G_NorthWales said:Ian Blackford looks as if he is going to explode.
This debate is just stuck in the same place with no new ideas, no give or take, no statesmanship, and each and everyone of the mps need to get a grip
HOC in complete melt down just now0 -
She’s using method acting to perfect the madman strategy.Stereotomy said:
That was particularly barmy.Scott_P said:0 -
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I’m not sure if you’re married or notnotme2 said:
FFS your Irish wife? Really? Irish citizens have had unlimited unrestricted rights to live, work and vote in the UK since the partition.OblitusSumMe said:
Britain is not giving off a trustworthy vibe at the moment. My Irish wife is worried despite the assurances on the Common Travel Area for the reason of not trusting the British government.bookseller said:
That's what I thought. Seems an easy one to resolve. But talking to my EU friends, they are still very worried because of the uncertainty. Just because the government is *committed* to something doesn't mean that's what's going to *happen* on March 30.Richard_Tyndall said:
The 3 million EU citizens here is a red herring anyway. The Government already committed to enacting the settlement scheme that was part of the Deal even if No Deal results.bookseller said:Schrodinger's Brexit: we open the box on March 30, No Deal. I'm 95% sure of this.
So what happens next?
A lot of things will swing into action very quickly just to allow modern life to function. Yes, there will be queues at the borders, some headless chickens on the financial markets, a few of the nutters hosting spam fritter parties (or whatever) but - outside political and media bubbles - most people will simply have to roll their sleeves up and get on with their lives.
My thoughts are:
- some big, luminous agreement on settled status to kick in immediately so the 3 million EU citizens can get on with their lives (and more importantly, remove them from purgatory of not knowing what happens).
- pragmatic solutions kick in at the border. It's amazing how many rules you can overlook just to wave the trucks through (to anyone looking to get anything/anyone into the country, now's your chance!)
- snap election to lance the HoC boil?
But it's a genuine question. What immediate, pragmatic things do you think will happen to allow us to continue to function? Our politicians are probably not thinking about this - so websites like this should...
Things like Windrush, and her own experience of the difficulty of proving residency to Student Finance England, provide real evidence for this lack of trust.
Instead of pandering to her fears. Tell her to stop being so stupid and to calm down a bit.
But, in my experience, your second paragraph would not have a good outcome0 -
This is getting like a trend....Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
I think there is sillier yet to come.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
At least the voices say they are EU Heads of State ...MarqueeMark said:
She is running the clock down.viewcode said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:
She is being spectacularly good at it. Admittedly, the only thing you could ever claim she has been spectacularly good at. But she's helped by the fact that everyone with any competing notion has been spectacularly shite.
She has only ever had one end-point. The HoC having one decision to make, five to midnight: May's Shit Deal vs. No Deal.
She is being fed information from some EU Heads of State that despite the facade, they REALLY don't want crash out no deal. ...0 -
New gold standard.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
Yup ... for now... more rivals to challenge for it soon though?RobD said:
New gold standard.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
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Of course it also demonstrates that an island nation, bordering a huge landmass, which is a G7 member and isn't part of a protectonist trade block can of course negotiate its own trade deals - while controlling its own borders, laws and money!Scott_P said:
Which sort of bursts the idea the UK couldn't do the same thing with some self belief.0 -
And it negotiated a better deal with the EU than it will with us...brendan16 said:Of course it also demonstrates that an island nation, bordering a huge landmass, which is a G7 member and isn't part of a protectonist trade block can of course negotiate its own trade deals - while controlling its own borders, laws and money!
Whereas we will negotiate a worse deal with the EU, and Japan...
Awesome0 -
This rather confirms Yougov and suggests that the Tories have moved ahead. The implication of the Yougov model,however, is that Labour would be likely to be shielded by a first term incumbency bonus in many of their marginal seats from the adverse swing of 1.25%.. In 2015 this helped the Tories minimise losses to Labour despite a 1% swing against them in England compared with 2010.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
Who knows. At least the UK negotiators will only have our interests in mind.Scott_P said:
And it negotiated a better deal with the EU than it will with us...brendan16 said:Of course it also demonstrates that an island nation, bordering a huge landmass, which is a G7 member and isn't part of a protectonist trade block can of course negotiate its own trade deals - while controlling its own borders, laws and money!
Whereas we will negotiate a worse deal with the EU, and Japan...
Awesome0 -
Just as this is:MarqueeMark said:
This is getting like a trend....Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095307810445889536
https://twitter.com/KantarPublic/status/1095290950992228352?s=19
Interesting to see the number supporting Leave is dropping alongside Corbyn.0 -
I think we'll effectively stay in the single market, subject to ECJ rulings while not in its formal jurisdiction and still making net payments to the EU and member states broadly similar to now.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.
Once the unicorn hunt is eventually called off.0 -
Not sure I’m a fan of people losing their jobs for holding the wrong opinions.Scott_P said:0 -
Do other nations have to pay the EU to trade with it?FF43 said:
I think we'll effectively stay in the single market, subject to ECJ rulings while not in its formal jurisdiction and still making net payments to the EU and member states broadly similar to now.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.
Once the unicorn hunt is eventually called off.0 -
My wife is a self declared radical feminist, so I would likely end up in a pool of my own blood at some point.Charles said:
I’m not sure if you’re married or notnotme2 said:
FFS your Irish wife? Really? Irish citizens have had unlimited unrestricted rights to live, work and vote in the UK since the partition.OblitusSumMe said:
Britain is not giving off a trustworthy vibe at the moment. My Irish wife is worried despite the assurances on the Common Travel Area for the reason of not trusting the British government.bookseller said:
That's what I thought. Seems an easy one to resolve. But talking to my EU friends, they are still very worried because of the uncertainty. Just because the government is *committed* to something doesn't mean that's what's going to *happen* on March 30.Richard_Tyndall said:
The 3 million EU citizens here is a red herring anyway. The Government already committed to enacting the settlement scheme that was part of the Deal even if No Deal results.bookseller said:Schrodinger's Brexit: we open the box on March 30, No Deal. I'm 95% sure of this.
So what happens next?
A lot of things will swing into action very quickly just to allow modern life to function. Yes, there will be queues at the borders, some headless chickens on the financial markets, a few of the nutters hosting spam fritter parties (or whatever) but - outside political and media bubbles - most people will simply have to roll their sleeves up and get on with their lives.
My thoughts are:
- some big, luminous agreement on settled status to kick in immediately so the 3 million EU citizens can get on with their lives (and more importantly, remove them from purgatory of not knowing what happens).
- pragmatic solutions kick in at the border. It's amazing how many rules you can overlook just to wave the trucks through (to anyone looking to get anything/anyone into the country, now's your chance!)
- snap election to lance the HoC boil?
But it's a genuine question. What immediate, pragmatic things do you think will happen to allow us to continue to function? Our politicians are probably not thinking about this - so websites like this should...
Things like Windrush, and her own experience of the difficulty of proving residency to Student Finance England, provide real evidence for this lack of trust.
Instead of pandering to her fears. Tell her to stop being so stupid and to calm down a bit.
But, in my experience, your second paragraph would not have a good outcome0 -
Be a shock when she gets No Deal, especially given her No Deal is better than a bad Deal.MarqueeMark said:
She is running the clock down.viewcode said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:
She is being spectacularly good at it. Admittedly, the only thing you could ever claim she has been spectacularly good at. But she's helped by the fact that everyone with any competing notion has been spectacularly shite.
She has only ever had one end-point. The HoC having one decision to make, five to midnight: May's Shit Deal vs. No Deal.
She is being fed information from some EU Heads of State that despite the facade, they REALLY don't want crash out no deal. These latest press pieces, saying that she now seems to believe "No Deal? No biggy....." can only help ratchet up the tension in those capitals.
All she needs to do is hold the line. She is happy enough for her Shit Deal to be implemented. If the EU blink and give her something last minute on the backstop - bonus.0 -
“We didn’t vote for a deal, we voted to leave” Kate Hoey
Ffs.0 -
Mark Carney's speech today is very interesting indeed, especially the bits at 13:06 and 13:37 here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/12/markets-boosted-by-us-government-shutdown-deal-and-trade-war-hopes-business-live
0 -
In order to participate in the single market, yes.RobD said:
Do other nations have to pay the EU to trade with it?FF43 said:
I think we'll effectively stay in the single market, subject to ECJ rulings while not in its formal jurisdiction and still making net payments to the EU and member states broadly similar to now.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.
Once the unicorn hunt is eventually called off.0 -
If their last poll was margin of error 3%, and showed the Tories down 3%, it may be that has now been overcompensated by a net 2% to the Tories. With Labour down 3%, it could all just be margin of error movment and the parties are actually still tied on 38%.justin124 said:
This rather confirms Yougov and suggests that the Tories have moved ahead. The implication of the Yougov model,however, is that Labour would be likely to be shielded by a first term incumbency bonus in many of their marginal seats from the adverse swing of 1.25%.. In 2015 this helped the Tories minimise losses to Labour despite a 1% swing against them in England compared with 2010.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095307810445889536
We need more polls....0 -
That is fair comment - but we now have Yougov, Opinium & Kantar coming up with similar figures - not that I believe the position is at all stable.MarqueeMark said:
If their last poll was margin of error 3%, and showed the Tories down 3%, it may be that has now been overcompensated by a net 2% to the Tories. With Labour down 3%, it could all just be margin of error movment and the parties are actually still tied on 38%.justin124 said:
This rather confirms Yougov and suggests that the Tories have moved ahead. The implication of the Yougov model,however, is that Labour would be likely to be shielded by a first term incumbency bonus in many of their marginal seats from the adverse swing of 1.25%.. In 2015 this helped the Tories minimise losses to Labour despite a 1% swing against them in England compared with 2010.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1095307810445889536
We need more polls....0 -
Some do. We don't have a lot of leverage with the EU, but money makes us interesting to them. Even in a harder Brexit scenario, I think we will be aiming to buy back some of the influence we have lost. SM payments simply formalises the influence buying.RobD said:
Do other nations have to pay the EU to trade with it?FF43 said:
I think we'll effectively stay in the single market, subject to ECJ rulings while not in its formal jurisdiction and still making net payments to the EU and member states broadly similar to now.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.
Once the unicorn hunt is eventually called off.
Hauliers (who voted 2 to 1 for Leave) are up in arms this week because only 10% of them won the Euro permits lottery. Although the lockout kicks in immediately under No Deal the same applies at the end of any transition period, unless we go SM. I don't expect hauliers to have the rationality to think maybe their Leave vote was a mistake, but I doubt they would complain too bitterly if we ended up in the Single Market and they keep their permits. Multiplied across lots of sectors the same pressure makes the Single Market the relatively painless option. Don't forget, these people were promised no cost by Vote Leave.0 -
Be even more of a shock to those 100s of MPs saying that No Deal is unimaginable and simply HAS to be stopped at all costs (short of voting for May's deal, natch....)malcolmg said:
Be a shock when she gets No Deal, especially given her No Deal is better than a bad Deal.MarqueeMark said:
She is running the clock down.viewcode said:
We are not taking seriously enough the possibility that May has gone mad in office. Or, to phrase it less extremely, that she is stressed beyond her capacity to cope and her normal decision-making ability is compromised.Dura_Ace said:
Well, that is disturbing reading. It her makes her sound like a weird emotional cripple and casts Arthur Askey as the Lady Macbeth of Brexit.williamglenn said:
She is being spectacularly good at it. Admittedly, the only thing you could ever claim she has been spectacularly good at. But she's helped by the fact that everyone with any competing notion has been spectacularly shite.
She has only ever had one end-point. The HoC having one decision to make, five to midnight: May's Shit Deal vs. No Deal.
She is being fed information from some EU Heads of State that despite the facade, they REALLY don't want crash out no deal. These latest press pieces, saying that she now seems to believe "No Deal? No biggy....." can only help ratchet up the tension in those capitals.
All she needs to do is hold the line. She is happy enough for her Shit Deal to be implemented. If the EU blink and give her something last minute on the backstop - bonus.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
I thought that the EU had already agreed to continue existing arrangements for a short period in this sector in the event of a no deal.FF43 said:
Some do. We don't have a lot of leverage with the EU, but money makes us interesting to them. Even in a harder Brexit scenario, I think we will be aiming to buy back some of the influence we have lost. SM payments simply formalises the influence buying.RobD said:
Do other nations have to pay the EU to trade with it?FF43 said:
I think we'll effectively stay in the single market, subject to ECJ rulings while not in its formal jurisdiction and still making net payments to the EU and member states broadly similar to now.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.
Once the unicorn hunt is eventually called off.
Hauliers (who voted 2 to 1 for Leave) are up in arms this week because only 10% of them won the Euro permits lottery. Although the lockout kicks in immediately under No Deal the same applies at the end of any transition period, unless we go SM. I don't expect hauliers to have the rationality to think maybe their Leave vote was a mistake, but I doubt they would complain too bitterly if we ended up in the Single Market and they keep their permits. Multiplied across lots of sectors the same pressure makes the Single Market the relatively painless option. Don't forget, these people were promised no cost by Vote Leave.0 -
Talking tough to the EU will be popular right up to the point the insulin runs out.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
This is important:
In response to a question from the Conservative pro-European Dominic Grieve, who says article 50 will have to be passed because parliament does not have the time to pass all the legislation, May says normally the Commons would need to study a treaty for 21 days before it can be ratified. But in this case that will not be necessary because MPs will have already debated these issues. This will be reflected in the EU withdrawal agreement bill, she says.
As Paul Waugh has tweeted:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10953153832953610240 -
If we receive poorer terms of trade then yes of course they do.RobD said:
Do other nations have to pay the EU to trade with it?FF43 said:
I think we'll effectively stay in the single market, subject to ECJ rulings while not in its formal jurisdiction and still making net payments to the EU and member states broadly similar to now.Endillion said:On topic: AFAIAC, Brexit means three very simple things:
a) Leaving the single market (I am relaxed about the Customs Union, but appreciate that many people do not share this view)
b) Ending jurisdiction of the ECJ
c) Ending large net payments to Brussels
Any form of Brexit that doesn't deliver these three things is therefore BINO. Norway (plus, minus or otherwise) does not deliver on A, and probably also not on C. Theresa May's Deal is, to my mind, basically perfect and in line with what I vaguely had in mind when I voted Leave.
Once the unicorn hunt is eventually called off.0 -
I imagine Type 1 diabetics are fairly left wing already. Relying on the NHS for your survival tends to impact your view on the world.Streeter said:
Talking tough to the EU will be popular right up to the point the insulin runs out.Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide...Scrapheap_as_was said:This is getting silly....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/10953078104458895360 -
So as usual you are in denial about the relative wealth of British people who move to Spain.SouthamObserver said:
All you need to live in Spain currently is an income that allows you to rent somewhere and pay your bills. That is not a dream beyond many millions of Brits. Economically, it certainly makes sense for things to stay the same, but the UK has decided there are more important things than economics. One of the consequences of that decision, which you support, is that in future many of those who dream of retiring to the Med will no longer be able to. For that reason I expect FoM to return to the table. It doesn’t just affect foreigners.another_richard said:Consumption per head in EU countries:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/2018
In the UK its 114% of the EU average, in Spain its 89% of the EU average.
Now I would expect that the average British person who moves to Spain has above average wealth and I would also expect that the Spanish regions where they tend to move to have below average wealth.0
