politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer

Recidivist said:

OllyT said:

Gardenwalker said:

David_Evershed said:

Freggles said:

David_Evershed said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1091713140495212544

What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?

To build it in one of their other factories.

In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.

So not to do with Brexit.

It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.

"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.

Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

Mostly they live in the world of the retired.

England make way way too many mistakes.

Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

https://twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

IanB2 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Probably sod all to do with Brexit and more to do with the car industry struggling in general globally due to massive over production capabilities and the disruption of electric vehicles.

You keep telling yourself all these bad news stories are nothing to do with Brexit....

What bad news stories? Look at the big picture.

Big picture, the UK has its best employment rate EVER in recorded history, while the deficit is coming down faster than predicted and we are growing at twice the rate of the Eurozone and faster than any other European G7 nation.

Big picture, the car industry is suffering through major turmoil. Except for certain companies like Tesla, the industry has a glut of over production, demand is falling as customers sensibly hold on to older and reliable vehicles longer than normal while the transition to electric continues apace with cars devalueing faster than ever before.

Logically the big picture shows one and not the other being the cause. Macroeconomically the UK is not taking a hit despite being less than 8 weeks from Brexit day without a ratified deal yet.

rottenborough said:

Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

Nurses, pensioners, students, kids, teachers, trade unionists.

No small business people? Just public sector workers?

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

Nurses, pensioners, students, kids, teachers, trade unionists.

No small business people? Just public sector workers?

Photos look like mainly six formers to be honest.

Philip_Thompson said:

Recidivist said:

OllyT said:

Gardenwalker said:

David_Evershed said:

Freggles said:

David_Evershed said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1091713140495212544

What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?

s.

In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and do

So not to do with Brexit.

It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.

"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.

Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.

Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.

Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?

Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.

But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.

How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?

Cyclefree said:

I know Dominic Grieve is not popular with some on here.

But this is worth reading - https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-conservative-party-has-a-problem-its-no-longer-conservative.

Our ability as a party to get through this crisis will determine our future fortunes. As a Conservative MP it is my duty to listen to colleagues and to try and find a way through. But we will not find one unless we remember that, historically, the secret of our success as a party has been our ability to provide hope, confidence and leadership for a much wider group of electoral supporters than our membership. Streams of emails may only be the roughest of guides, but I am struck by the numbers who write to me who once gave us their support and now do not. Unless we reassure them of our ability to deliver the quiet stable government they desire, our relevance to promoting the wellbeing of our country must be in question

The view on a No Deal Brexit from a chip shop in Grimethorpe:

"We'll have a lot of shit to go through but we'll come out the other side."

Hard to argue with any of that.

Another great race to be laying rather than backing.

This is the sort of rugby match that gives me the horn.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloody biased French ref....just saying like...I blame Brexit ;-)

Didn't even let the TMO have a proper look.

Afternoon all

I'd forgotten it was that tedious time of the year when everyone gets interested in rugby union - a game for thugs played by gentlemen as someone once described it. To be honest, having been forced to play it as a callow youth, it fills me with nothing short of ennui with a bit of irritation thrown in.

Oh well, chacun a son gout as Robbie Williams would have you believe.

On matters political, the supporters of Theresa May once again have a straw to clutch with reports and rumours of some Labour MPs backing the WDA and the ERG softening. It's more like whistling to keep your hopes up.

We've been here before - every so often some friendly journalist offers a crumb of comfort but despite Brady nothing has changed. The WDA still needs to clear the Commons and its proponents are of course hoping the prospect of rubbish piling up in streets or fields (it's a folk memory from the yesteryear of 40 years ago which will play well with people of a certain age), Big Macs becoming the new currency and Waitrose running out of avocadoes will scare enough MPs into swallowing their reservations and signing up.

As I've always said, fear is the last weapon - make people scared enough and they'll vote for anything.

Its a good job England bat deep.....

FrancisUrquhart said:

Work on the Qashqai - which makes up the majority of Nissan Sunderland's work - is not expected to be affected. The Qashqai is the best-selling crossover in Europe.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708

Unclear is that includes the next-gen.

That’s the point, really. It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production. It’s future product that would become more uncertain.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Its a good job England bat deep.....

If they batted as deep as the Mindanao Trench they would still lose this series.

It's like the good ol' days for the Windies...

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step

Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flows

If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain

Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.

IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.

(You notice I do say IMHO)

If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).

I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions

What indications? The only 'indications' are the ERG and DUP will support a unicorn Deal with no backstop which is why the Brady amendment passed, but Juncker, Barnier and Verhofstadt this week have all been adamant there can be no changes to the Deal which require removal of the backstop.

The only likely possible change is a shift to permanent Customs Union and Single Market elements which Juncker has said would be acceptable for renegotiation given 301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last year and 318 MPs voted against No Deal last Tuesday but only 202 MPs voted for May's Deal with the backstop last month

Predictable response.

You do not seem to be able to accept that in this monumental crisis yesterdays views and votes can turn on a pin head and render your musings irrelevant.

Words like the 'only likely possible change' are meaningless as mps face the reality of the Country's desperate position and you have no way whatsoever of knowing which moving parts will change, some dramatically, even in the EU

turns on cricket, first ball wild drive skittles our no.3 bat who isn't a no.3, turns off....

I don't know what England's obsession with kicking is. Bloody run it...what's the point of having Manu in the backs if you aren't going to.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

turns on cricket, first ball wild drive skittles our no.3 bat who isn't a no.3, turns off....

Good job England bat deep.....

Scott_P said:

ydoethur said:

Given what was involved in the abrupt cessation of wing manufacturing, that claim was never going to fly.

If we leave with no deal, how many years do you give the Filton plant?

My point (apart from the pun you have missed) is that if people make lurid claims that are clearly not true, this discredits analyses that probably are true.

There was no way in hell Airbus would instantly stop production in the event of Brexit. Claims to the contrary merely made them look like fools, liars, puppets of the Fascist piss artist or all three together. But given ten years and enough incentive, they surely will build a plant elsewhere and transfer production to it.

Filton is in any case a bad example, as it is bound up with research which is most unlikely to move to an area where English isn't the main language. I was thinking more of Flintshire and Sunderland.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Send him off.

That Irishman just used the c word repeatedly on live tv.

LOCK HIM UP.

Given the biased French Ref, the only way he gets sent off is if he admits to drinking boxed Australian plonk live on tv.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step

Let me stop you in your first sentence fhe end of the month and there will not be a GE.

(You notice I do say IMHO)

If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).

I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions

What indications? The only 'indicationackstop last month

Predictable response.

You do not seem to be able to accept that in this monumental crisis yesterdays views and votes can turn on a pin head and render your musings irrelevant.

Words like the 'only likely possible change' are meaningless as mps face the reality of the Country's desperate position and you have no way whatsoever of knowing which moving parts will change, some dramatically, even in the EU

I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote ffor GB mirrors the backstop for NI).

I could have written your first paragraph reply because you are so predictable and set in your views. You do not seem to be able to countenance a change of stance not least as indications are a deal may well pass, yes, with many ERG on board

Your second paragraph is another repetition but nowhere do you allow for opinions and views to rapidly change, even on a day to day basis, as the pressure mounts to critical and pragmatism surfaces replacing previous entrenched positions

What indications? The only 'indications' are the ERG and DUP will support a unicorn Deal with no backstop which is why the Brady amendment passed, but Juncker, Barnier and Verhofstadt this week have all been adamant there can be no changes to the Deal which require removal of the backstop.

The only likely possible change is a shift to permanent Customs Union and Single Market elements which Juncker has said would be acceptable for renegotiation given 301 MPs voted for permanent Customs Union last year and 318 MPs voted against No Deal last Tuesday but only 202 MPs voted for May's Deal with the backstop last month

Predictable response.

You do not seem to be able to accept that in this monumental crisis yesterdays views and votes can turn on a pin head and render your musings irrelevant.

Words like the 'only likely possible change' are meaningless as mps face the reality of the Country's desperate position and you have no way whatsoever of knowing which moving parts will change, some dramatically, even in the EU

Also seems to live in some bizarre world where the House of Commons can independently negotiate a Brexit deal without the support of the Government or virtually all Conservative MPs.

stodge said:

Afternoon all

I'd forgotten it was that tedious time of the year when everyone gets interested in rugby union - a game for thugs played by gentlemen as someone once described it. To be honest, having been forced to play it as a callow youth, it fills me with nothing short of ennui with a bit of irritation thrown in.

Oh well, chacun a son gout as Robbie Williams would have you believe.

On matters political, the supporters of Theresa May once again have a straw to clutch with reports and rumours of some Labour MPs backing the WDA and the ERG softening. It's more like whistling to keep your hopes up.

We've been here before - every so often some friendly journalist offers a crumb of comfort but despite Brady nothing has changed. The WDA still needs to clear the Commons and its proponents are of course hoping the prospect of rubbish piling up in streets or fields (it's a folk memory from the yesteryear of 40 years ago which will play well with people of a certain age), Big Macs becoming the new currency and Waitrose running out of avocadoes will scare enough MPs into swallowing their reservations and signing up.

As I've always said, fear is the last weapon - make people scared enough and they'll vote for anything.

Re labour mps, the evidence of support for the deal was evidenced in their votes on public record.

Scott_P said:

ydoethur said:

Given what was involved in the abrupt cessation of wing manufacturing, that claim was never going to fly.

If we leave with no deal, how many years do you give the Filton plant?

Broughton where the main wing production is expect ten years plus with existing orders

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jesus Christ...massive mistake again from England. New Zealand be watching and thinking well we don't need to worry about this, get us another tinny from the fridge.

Steinlager comes in bottles.

Well that's England f##ked with Mario off.

Scott_P said:

matt said:

It’s always been clear that Brexit wouldn’t affect, for example, current Mini or Airbus or Bombardier production.

Apart from Airbus stating it could cease production...

When told to say so by the Government, it transpired.....

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1091760308958449666

I think Manu tuilagi is imagining every Irish player is Chris Ashton.

Root gone...Good job England bat deep.

HYUFD said:

I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine

It's rare I agree with you, my friend, but in this instance you are absolutely spot on. We have created or reached or had provided for us (depending on your perspective) an irreconcilable dilemma.

There are, it seems, only two paths open - first, proceed to No Deal with all that may or may not flow from that. Second, seek an extension to the A50 timetable. Now, the EU might not be averse to the latter and you have argued (with some merit) if the UK agreed a permanent CU with the EU, that would likely be a) acceptable to the EU and b) acceptable to a majority in the Commons.

However, and you'd know this better than I, May has been steadfastly opposed to a CU with the EU so the politics of any shift will be fascinating. Indeed, from where I sit, irrespective of whether a permanent CU is the way out or not, I can't see how this politically ends well for the Conservative Party. Such a change would be seen as a huge betrayal by the ERG and presumably this new anti-EU party with all its big money backers might pick up members and support from Conservative ranks.

However, as someone else once said, it might be a price worth paying set against the possible consequences of a No Deal.

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

I do know the EU are still adamant they will not change the Deal in order to remove the backstop, the DUP and ERG will not vote for the Deal with the backstop and the DUP have made clear they will vote for a VONC in the government if the Deal with the backstop passes.

If you still think there can be a way around that fine but for the Deal to pass with the backstop as far as I can see it will need at least 50 Labour MPs to support it as well as 50 Tory MPs switching to back it and even if it did pass the Government would lose a VONC as the DUP would withdraw support. If you want to still think there is an alternative way it passes fine

It's rare I agree with you, my friend, but in this instance you are absolutely spot on. We have created or reached or had provided for us (depending on your perspective) an irreconcilable dilemma.

There are, it seems, only two paths open - first, proceed to No Deal with all that may or may not flow from that. Second, seek an extension to the A50 timetable. Now, the EU might not be averse to the latter and you have argued (with some merit) if the UK agreed a permanent CU with the EU, that would likely be a) acceptable to the EU and b) acceptable to a majority in the Commons.

However, and you'd know this better than I, May has been steadfastly opposed to a CU with the EU so the politics of any shift will be fascinating. Indeed, from where I sit, irrespective of whether a permanent CU is the way out or not, I can't see how this politically ends well for the Conservative Party. Such a change would be seen as a huge betrayal by the ERG and presumably this new anti-EU party with all its big money backers might pick up members and support from Conservative ranks.

However, as someone else once said, it might be a price worth paying set against the possible consequences of a No Deal.

If permanent CU and SM elements is to pass it will have to come from the legislature and May then reluctantly accepting it as a last resort to avoid No Deal and the will of Parliament.

It might boost UKIP or a new Farage party a bit with some defections from Tory Leavers to them but nowhere near as much as revoking Brexit would and of course Corbyn will still have to deal with diehard Remainers who will be annoyed there was no EUref with a Remain option and might give the LDs a try

felix said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1091759434743857153

Interesting.

Blimey

Re Nissan. This perhaps should also be seen in the context of the demise of Ghosn. A reversion to a Japan first policy.

Fecking hell.

We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

ydoethur said:

I don't think Denly will remember his Test debut with fondness either.

West Indies surely even money to win by an innings here.

Its a good job England....arhhh I can't be bother with this joke anymore. England are just shit.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fecking hell.

We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

In fairness, Labour never acknowledges that either. It would mean admitting the NHS was a monumental economic mistake paid for with money we couldn't spare, and they are not willing to.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

felix said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1091759434743857153

Interesting.

Blimey

Labour voters move to conservative - Corbyn is being found out

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fecking hell.

We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

So sad to be so bitter

rottenborough said:

Jezza tour of marginals continued this week. Broxtowe on Thursday. Anyone would think that an election was due.

https://twitter.com/danfirth1/status/1091057118164205574

So everyone either being paid by the state or receiving benefits from the state.

Nobody actually paying the taxes that fund it all.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fecking hell.

We were the largest recipient of the Marshall plan.

Why are some Leavers so lacking in knowledge about history?

Embarrassing.

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1091764665548500992

I had dinner with a big Corbyn fan last night. Their rather generous opinion of his performance on Brexit was "disappointing".

This made me laugh:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1091758299530313729

Where's your backstop now Ireland

'Forward pass'
Matt Dawson
'There's nothing to say about that pass. It's about three metres forward. It will be interesting to see how Jerome Garces reacts to the replay, whether he just gives Ireland a bit more leeway now.'

Qtwtain

Pulpstar said:

Where's your backstop now Ireland

Well its was a Frenchman, but even eventually even he couldn't help.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Where's your backstop now Ireland

Well its was a Frenchman, but even eventually even he couldn't help.

The pitch became a common travel area?

What a try from Slade.....

I thought the Irish were favourites for the rugby

Ireland 13 England 32 looks like a drubbing