politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 dealing
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Comments
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First. Like 'anyone but'0
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A good point about Johnson from John Rentoul
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/10917181338014638120 -
Any idea what caused the spike in Govephilia on the markets?0
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In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
But Jezza is also utterly hopeless in the Chamber and yet wins landslides amongst the middle class marxists who dominate the new labour party.MikeSmithson said:A good point about Johnson from John Rentoul
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1091718133801463812
I suppose Boris has to get past the MPs so more of an issue.0 -
On topic:
Gove - About right
Johnson - Too short
Rabb - Too short
Javid - Too long
Hunt - Too long
Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
Tugendhat - No
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His speech in the no confidence debate.Freggles said:Any idea what caused the spike in Govephilia on the markets?
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I know one or two remainers who will laugh their heads off at this news.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
Which shows how Brexit has so divided our country.0 -
Seems fair that those who voted for Brexit get all the ‘dividends’.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
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I worry about Leadsome. I'm red on her. But she did run last time and so...Richard_Nabavi said:On topic:
Gove - About right
Johnson - Too short
Rabb - Too short
Javid - Too long
Hunt - Too long
Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
Tugendhat - No0 -
Fishermen and farmers too.TheScreamingEagles said:
Seems fair that those who voted for Brexit get all the ‘dividends’.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
Immigrants won't pinch jobs, when those jobs are gone. Simples!rottenborough said:0 -
She certainly has a better chance than some of those at shorter odds.rottenborough said:
I worry about Leadsome. I'm red on her. But she did run last time and so...Richard_Nabavi said:On topic:
Gove - About right
Johnson - Too short
Rabb - Too short
Javid - Too long
Hunt - Too long
Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
Tugendhat - No0 -
Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).0
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Not at allrottenborough said:
I know one or two remainers who will laugh their heads off at this news.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
Which shows how Brexit has so divided our country.
It just shows that those individuals are deeply unpleasant people who take joy in the misfortune of others0 -
He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.Stark_Dawning said:Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).
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rottenborough said:
What is the alternative? Not to build it at all?0 -
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
Gove is soft on the Norway option.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.Stark_Dawning said:Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).
When they were in, they were in
And when they were out, they were out
But when they were only half way out
They were neither out nor in.
So the Conservative members will only vote for for Gove if he is against Rudd.0 -
They may choose Spain instead. But the news is awful for the city.David_Evershed said:0 -
If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured0 -
Or Johnson. Or any of the other Brexiteer loons (there are still a lot of sensible members left, amazing as it might seem).David_Evershed said:
Gove is soft on the Norway option.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.Stark_Dawning said:Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).
When they were in they were in
And when they were out they were out
But when they were onky half way out
They were neither out nor in.
So the Conservative members will only for for Gove if he is against Rudd.0 -
Somehow can’t see him unifying the country, though....Richard_Nabavi said:
He's just about the only possible unifying candidate now.Stark_Dawning said:Gove's been shrewd since flaunting his Leave credentials during the referendum. Unlike Boris, who embraced the darkness, he's tacked to a more moderate Brexit and has even pleased liberals by being a bit of a greeny. His loyalty to Theresa has surely also been noticed and noted by the party faithful (cf. the insolence of Rees-Mogg and crew).
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Do any of them have any direct connections to Nissan? Just Googling it suggests that the plant employs 6,700 directly and then a lot more in the supply chain. That sounds like a lot of people, but there will still be plenty in Sunderland who don't have a connection to the plant.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:0 -
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.0 -
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
The Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the battle of Cannae.0
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Gove should have been fired.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.
<img src=https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcCHxtdWAAMUgz0.jpg:large0 -
Second Italian tryTheScreamingEagles said:The Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the battle of Cannae.
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And equally a lot of those 6700 may live outside Sunderland - South Shields, Durham Chester-le-Street are well within a 15 minute commuting distance.tlg86 said:
Do any of them have any direct connections to Nissan? Just Googling it suggests that the plant employs 6,700 directly and then a lot more in the supply chain. That sounds like a lot of people, but there will still be plenty in Sunderland who don't have a connection to the plant.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
England start their second innings after West Indies take a lead of 119 on first innings.
Will England make WI bat again or not?0 -
The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.HYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured0 -
Unfortunately the damage arising from MPs rejection of the withdrawal deal is now becoming increasingly irreversible. Even if the blunder is swiftly corrected, it will be a hell of a long time before international business trusts the UK again; if your business depends on access to the EU market, why take the risk? Banks that have moved operations to Dublin and elsewhere are not going to reverse the process, and car manufacturers with multi-billion pound investment decisions need to be able to rely on many years of stability.0
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Well we can believe in unicorns of course but that is not very likelyrottenborough said:
The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.HYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured0 -
Luckily no - my aunt and uncle are wealthy retired, bigoted and living in the past. My sister's family are all in good jobs but Nissan has been really good for area and they seem to have thrown it all away for a dream.tlg86 said:
Do any of them have any direct connections to Nissan? Just Googling it suggests that the plant employs 6,700 directly and then a lot more in the supply chain. That sounds like a lot of people, but there will still be plenty in Sunderland who don't have a connection to the plant.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:0 -
Doesn't it depend on where the supply chain, and target market for the X-trail is? SUVs aren't that popular in Japan, and the supply chain is mostly in continental Europe. My money would be on Spain : wages are lower than the UK, and the Spanish government has been lavish with its subsidiesDavid_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:0 -
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
Project fear, Richard. Just project fear....Richard_Nabavi said:Unfortunately the damage arising from MPs rejection of the withdrawal deal is now becoming increasingly irreversible. Even if the blunder is swiftly corrected, it will be a hell of a long time before international business trusts the UK again; if your business depends on access to the EU market, why take the risk? Banks that have moved operations to Dublin and elsewhere are not going to reverse the process, and car manufacturers with multi-billion pound investment decisions need to be able to rely on many years of stability.
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It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?David_Evershed said:
We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....0 -
Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flowsHYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured
If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain
Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.
IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.
(You notice I do say IMHO)
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Rudd was splashed on today's FT with her picture taking up half the front page. Maybe one of pb's City types can tell us why.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic:
Gove - About right
Johnson - Too short
Rabb - Too short
Javid - Too long
Hunt - Too long
Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
Tugendhat - No0 -
Third.HYUFD said:
Second Italian tryTheScreamingEagles said:The Italians are putting up the worst performance by a side from Rome since the battle of Cannae.
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I’m in full patrician one nation mode today.felix said:
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.
Pains me that people are going to suffer and if Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then the voters will turn to Corbyn.0 -
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.0 -
I am beginning to wonder. I have said repeatedly on here that the EU has told May there will be no changes on WA/backstop etc and that's that. The unicorns do not exist.HYUFD said:
Well we can believe in unicorns of course but that is not very likelyrottenborough said:
The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.HYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured
But I wonder now whether it might dawn on the EU at this late hour that a No Deal combined with the recession in Europe and the situation in Italy, might break the whole thing.
Will they find some form of unicorny words that allows most of the Tory party to back away from the edge?0 -
I would want more detail but if Japan now avoids duty why would they not bring it home and support their own workforce. However, if it moves to Spain that is a loss and it greatly sadden meGardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.
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Think of the pure, sweet smelling air of freedom.Nigelb said:
Project fear, Richard. Just project fear....Richard_Nabavi said:Unfortunately the damage arising from MPs rejection of the withdrawal deal is now becoming increasingly irreversible. Even if the blunder is swiftly corrected, it will be a hell of a long time before international business trusts the UK again; if your business depends on access to the EU market, why take the risk? Banks that have moved operations to Dublin and elsewhere are not going to reverse the process, and car manufacturers with multi-billion pound investment decisions need to be able to rely on many years of stability.
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Didn’t May make certain promises to them?felix said:
They may choose Spain instead. But the news is awful for the city.David_Evershed said:
This is a leak not an official announcement (I think). If that is the case it may be a warning shot rather than a final decision0 -
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:0 -
Because her brother is a very well connected PR maestro?DecrepitJohnL said:
Rudd was splashed on today's FT with her picture taking up half the front page. Maybe one of pb's City types can tell us why.Richard_Nabavi said:On topic:
Gove - About right
Johnson - Too short
Rabb - Too short
Javid - Too long
Hunt - Too long
Rudd - Not a snowflake's chance in hell, unfortunately
Tugendhat - No0 -
The thing to look out for is will Nissan still make the next-generation Qashqai at Sunderland.0
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Except he was right of course. Typical Remainers wanting to have people fired for telling the truth.williamglenn said:
Gove should have been fired.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.
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Not a protectionist racket...Scott_P said:0 -
The voters are blameless. What else could they have done? Conservative MPs less so. They elected Theresa May; they banged the desks in applause after she lost their majority; they supported her in a confidence vote. Remarkably, they did all this while not supporting her policies. They are the guilty men (and women).felix said:
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
We’re not ready now, so I don’t know how you could say we were ready then.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except he was right of course. Typical Remainers wanting to have people fired for telling the truth.williamglenn said:
Gove should have been fired.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
Jesus Christ, ITV Player is shit...makes iPlayer look decent. The bloody pirates can provide better quality than either of them.0
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Are you kidding?MarqueeMark said:
It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?David_Evershed said:
We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....0 -
That won't make much difference up there. They're used to electing red donkeys.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m in full patrician one nation mode today.felix said:
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.
Pains me that people are going to suffer and if Project Fear turns out to be Project Reality then the voters will turn to Corbyn.0 -
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.0 -
People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.OllyT said:
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.0 -
Nonsense. The whole nature of democracy is to hand power to the people. There were two choices in the Referendum.DecrepitJohnL said:
The voters are blameless. What else could they have done? Conservative MPs less so. They elected Theresa May; they banged the desks in applause after she lost their majority; they supported her in a confidence vote. Remarkably, they did all this while not supporting her policies. They are the guilty men (and women).felix said:
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
The car makers all seemed sanguine though after Theresa's mysterious assurances given shortly after the referendum. What's changed? Do they think she'll renege on them (some kind of subsidy) or that it's no longer in her power to delivery them (reasonable trade links with the EU)?felix said:
Are you kidding?MarqueeMark said:
It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?David_Evershed said:
We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....0 -
True, what was , the abstain , did not vote rate ?felix said:
Nonsense. The whole nature of democracy is to hand power to the people. There were two choices in the Referendum.DecrepitJohnL said:
The voters are blameless. What else could they have done? Conservative MPs less so. They elected Theresa May; they banged the desks in applause after she lost their majority; they supported her in a confidence vote. Remarkably, they did all this while not supporting her policies. They are the guilty men (and women).felix said:
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
As noted below one big change is EU / Japan trade deal allows them to import the X-Trail from Japan without tariff. That is why I think it is important to see what Nissan are going to do about the next gen Qashqai, which is supposed to be being made at Sunderland.Stark_Dawning said:
The car makers all seemed sanguine though after Theresa's mysterious assurances given shortly after the referendum. What's changed? Do they think she'll renege on them (some kind of subsidy) or that it's no longer in her power to delivery them (reasonable trade links with the EU)?felix said:
Are you kidding?MarqueeMark said:
It's a model originally launched in 2000, albeit with several updates. Maybe there is some newly named replacement coming down the line later?David_Evershed said:
We need to see the fuller picture before leaping to Brexit-related conclusions....0 -
My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:0 -
Presumably she told them we would not crash out without any deal, disrupt all their supply chains and impose WTO tariffs on every product.Stark_Dawning said:The car makers all seemed sanguine though after Theresa's mysterious assurances given shortly after the referendum. What's changed? Do they think she'll renege on them (some kind of subsidy) or that it's no longer in her power to delivery them (reasonable trade links with the EU)?
Which she can't now deliver.0 -
I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.OblitusSumMe said:
My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:0 -
As noted above, the only reason to build in Sunderland was to avoid tariffs.FrancisUrquhart said:I think it will become clearly quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.
Japan is now tariff free, and Sunderland might not be.0 -
I see the French LARPers are out again. It really has turned into the traditional Saturday afternoon hobby for some in France.0
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Which is why I said I think a telling factor will also be if they also pull out of making the next gen Qashqai there. XTrail and Qashqai were going to be new investment and additional jobs, but XTrail is currently made in Japan.Scott_P said:
As noted above, the only reason to build in Sunderland was to avoid tariffs.FrancisUrquhart said:I think it will become clearly quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.
Japan is now tariff free, and Sunderland might not be.0 -
If it is made in Japan because of the Japan-EU FTA to which the U.K. will no longer be a party —- then it is also because of Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.OblitusSumMe said:
My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:0 -
Well no it isn't. They don't need to move to any EU country with that deal, compared to 2 years ago when they announced this.Gardenwalker said:
If it is made in Japan because of the Japan-EU FTA to which the U.K. will no longer be a party —- then it is also because of Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.OblitusSumMe said:
My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:
As I said down thread, if they do announce that they are still bringing it to the EU rather than the UK, and the same for the Qashqai, then yes definitely is.0 -
What a start.0
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This is nonsense. People voted to leave based on promises we would thrive and prosper outside of the EU. This was a promise that was made. In communities where zero hour jobs and minimum wage contracts are the norm this was a message that was readily received. Remain needed to offer more than more of the same.Gardenwalker said:
People voted to be poorer and to limit the freedoms of their children. So not sure why we should “blame” anything - it was a conscious decision.OllyT said:
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.0 -
Spoiler alert....Bloody ITV player is crap and miles behind....TheScreamingEagles said:What a start.
I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.0 -
It is the pineapple on pizza of online viewing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Spoiler alert....Bloody ITV player is crap and miles behind....TheScreamingEagles said:What a start.
I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.0 -
Its even worse than that....its Radiohead live at Glastonbury bad.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is the pineapple on pizza of online viewing.FrancisUrquhart said:
Spoiler alert....Bloody ITV player is crap and miles behind....TheScreamingEagles said:What a start.
I don't understand how Laws isn't in the team.0 -
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Translation....BBC News has read Sky News website...Scott_P said:0 -
That's exactly what I thoughtFrancisUrquhart said:
Translation....BBC News has read Sky News website...Scott_P said:
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Probably sod all to do with Brexit and more to do with the car industry struggling in general globally due to massive over production capabilities and the disruption of electric vehicles.0
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Faisal Islam is wrong - the X-Trail is also made in St Petersburg. Not just Japan.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:0 -
The canny populist will pivot towards *not* applying the Japan FTA to the UK after Brexit.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think it will become clear quite quickly. If they announce they are going to continue to make it in Japan, I think we can make a good call that it is the FTA. If they say they have chosen another site in the EU, well that does scream Brexit was an the driving factor.OblitusSumMe said:
My first thought with most car-related announcements is whether it's related to the crash in diesel sales. If demand for the X-Trail is down because they were mainly sold with diesel engines then it would have nothing to do with either Brexit or the EU-Japan FTA.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That does look as if it is a result of their trade dealScott_P said:-1 -
Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.OllyT said:
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.
Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.
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You might be right......OllyT said:
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.
'PUTREFYING PILES OF WASTE AFTER BREXIT' is the headline in today's Guardian.
(Or maybe they saw the list for T May's successor)
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flowsHYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 gen generation by then might be favoured
If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain
Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.
IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.
(You notice I do say IMHO)
If the Deal passes it will almost certainly be because significant numbers of Labour MPs vote for it, the ERG and certainly the DUP will not be supporting it as it requires the backstop. The DUP have also been adamant that stopping the backstop is a 'blood red line' and if the Deal passes the Commons they will then vote of no confidence the government in order to stop to try and stop it instead.
TM and the ERG will of course not go all customs union and single market and I have never suggested that, if customs union and single market elements pass it will be through Labour, LD and SNP votes and the votes of the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out no deal (it may also be more acceptable to the DUP if permanent customs union and single market elements for GB mirrors the backstop for NI).0 -
Quite. To be a democratic country is to own the consequences of a vote. The broad suggestion is that the mass of people are too stupid to understand branching consequences. Why bother with voting - just leave it to the clever ones. Where does that logic end?felix said:
Sorry but voters have to share lots of the blame for this. That's what democracy means. There were lies on both sides most of which continue today. Voters get the politicians they deserve.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t blame the voters.felix said:
I come from there and my sister and family live there. My aunt and uncle are very enthusiatic Brexiters but to this day the rest of us have never understood the madness of the Sunderland vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
In the long annals of Brexit insanity, the fact that Sunderland voted Leave is surely the most extraordinary fact of all.rottenborough said:
I blame the politicians that said Brexit would be easy and painless, that any criticisms of Brexit were Project Fear.
The voters were sold a pup.0 -
You keep telling yourself all these bad news stories are nothing to do with Brexit....Philip_Thompson said:Probably sod all to do with Brexit and more to do with the car industry struggling in general globally due to massive over production capabilities and the disruption of electric vehicles.
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Not on any of the evidence so farrottenborough said:
I am beginning to wonder. I have said repeatedly on here that the EU has told May there will be no changes on WA/backstop etc and that's that. The unicorns do not exist.HYUFD said:
Well we can believe in unicorns of course but that is not very likelyrottenborough said:
The alternative is May gets a last minute bit of paper on backstop from the EU that just about persuades the DUP.HYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured
But I wonder now whether it might dawn on the EU at this late hour that a No Deal combined with the recession in Europe and the situation in Italy, might break the whole thing.
Will they find some form of unicorny words that allows most of the Tory party to back away from the edge?0 -
Agreed. How could it possibly be small? After 40 years of increasing integration and supply chain dependence etc etc.Recidivist said:
Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.OllyT said:
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.
Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.
0 -
If HY's certainly meant anything, Boris would be well ensconced in no. 10 by now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Let me stop you in your first sentence from which the rest of your speculation flowsHYUFD said:If May gets her Deal through there will be a general election in May anyway as the DUP join with the Opposition and VONC the government (given the EU have again refused to backdown over the backstop) and May will lead the Tories as she has only said she will step down before a 2022 general election. If May wins that general election the next leader will be a younger figure, if May loses it is hard to see any Deal backer like Gove getting it and Boris must be strong favourite to take over as leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform.
If we end up with permanent Customs Union with single market elements as is possible if Tory anti No Deal MPs vote with Labour and the SNP then May will likely last until December after which it is hard to see how she will not be toppled with a hard Brexiteer like Boris replacing her.
If we end up with No Deal then May might survive until 2022 with the ERG and DUP on board and either she wins and again a younger contender comes into play while even if she loses a candidate from the next generation by then might be favoured
If TM deal passes it will need a good number of ERG members on board and the DUP may go along with the deal. They may decide to withdraw their confidence and supply, but bring down the government in favour of a possible Corbyn government is not at all certain
Your views do follow a pattern with such certainty and recently you seem to think that TM and ERG will go all customs union and single market. The 40 plus labour mps are talking of voting for the deal as it is now and many are coming round to just get it done.
IMHO TM deal will go through by the end of the month and there will not be a GE.
(You notice I do say IMHO)0 -
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?Recidivist said:
Exactly. This may be nothing to do with Brexit - though even then Brexit can hardly have helped. But I am seeing similar decisions being made on a much smaller scale which certainly are to do with Brexit. Indeed in my own very modest way I have plans to open an office in Berlin which are entirely and unambiguously down to Brexit and nothing else. It will be pretty much a virtual operation just so I still have a legal presence in the EU. But it will mean money I might have spent in Britain going to Germany and will probably delay me hiring employee No 4.OllyT said:
"Nothing to do with Brexit" is a phrase we are going to hear a lot over the next few years and even if the odd one is true I doubt many will be fooled. People will want a scapegoat and Brexit will become the new EU and will get blamed for everything.Gardenwalker said:
It’s funny how all these project cancellations, headquarter transfers, staff moves, etc etc are never because of Brexit.David_Evershed said:
In Japan now that they have a trade deal with the EU and don't have to pay 12% duty importing cars into the EU from Japan.Freggles said:
To build it in one of their other factories.David_Evershed said:
So not to do with Brexit.
Anyone who thinks the short term hit we are going to take for leaving the EU is going to be small is simply not living in the real world.0
