politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the whic

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Beverley_C said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Beverley_C said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.

You seem to have missed the Elephant In The Room - inaction leads to No Deal and you get your precious Brexit.

Not really, if you read and understood my comment. If MPs are successful in grabbing control of the parliamentary agenda, which I referred to up front, there won’t be a Brexit.

I took the implication of your post to be that nothing will happen. As you say, MPs are deadlocked and the Maybot's programming does not allow her to make decisions and the Tories have made her invulnerable from deselection until the end of 2019.

No Deal looks nailed on (as they say around this parish)

I'm betting on No Deal as much as personal insurance as for a political bet.

At 6/1 on Betfair it's obvious value.

Worth reading the small print to that bet, which only pays off for a departure with no deal at end March. If there is any delay or extension then the bet fails, even if we eventually leave with no deal. Given that proviso I think the 6/1 is fair, not value

Edit/ and a lot less valuable as insurance against being shafted by no deal.

Thanks. Useful warning.

Still interested in the definition of “a deal” too. Because I suspect there’s a much slimmer “open in case of emergency” envelope in Barnier’s desk which basically says “OK, OK, we get it. How about we sort the planes and meds and stuff for 6 months?”. Is *that* a deal?

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Chris said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1089942285658267648

So all the stuff about the DUP having agreed to support the deal and the speculation that they would bring 100 Tory MPs across with them was predicated on sheer fantasy.

That much was obvious a week ago.

Has anyone actually identified a single MP who has changed his or her position since the meaningful vote?

Well not since the vote..

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1089923239558762497

Wouldn't surprise me if that wasn't a standard CCHQ-organised leaflet. There's probably a similar one to embarrass all the Remainiacs. It's a really shit design, so looks about right. I mean, what is that double ripped effect supposed to be, top and bottom? Urgh.

Some of them were so awful, a conscious decision was taken not to deliver them.

SaJav’s plan for EU immigration in case of No Deal - three-year leave to remain available until new Immigration law comes in:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-outlines-no-deal-arrangements-for-eu-citizens?utm_source=c8c35f32-63bf-4847-a716-ceba7ecf2d50&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

I hope that the food supply experts of this morning were looking at the BBC early evening news. Unlikely though given physical location.

David_Evershed said:

rcs1000 said:

David_Evershed said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1089907284346589184

Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.

With all due respect, David, the second option will not happen.

In the event of No Deal the Eu has been made aware that neither Ireland nor the UK are prepared to instal infrastructure on the Ireland/NI border.

Consequently their fallback position is to check goods coming into the EU from the UK and Ireland in the same way - both for tariffs and compliance with standards.

The EU are not keen to publicise their position because it undermines their negotiating position of course, which is to weaponise the Irish border issue.

Given that will mean the goods are delayed big time it will mean someone will end up needing to stick a border in or stop trading.

williamglenn said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1089908940601786368

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1089908211182944256?s=21

Some of you may recall that I have in the past indicated that Mr Lilico is a bear of very little brain. Sometimes you look at what he writes and wonder how such can exist in the world...

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1089908940601786368

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1089908211182944256?s=21

Some of you may recall that I have in the past indicated that Mr Lilico is a bear of very little brain. Sometimes you look at what he writes and wonder how such can exist in the world...

He truly is an idiot. How someone like that survives in a job as some sort of thinktank type is beyond me.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

If the ERG does not vote for the Brady amendment, they will have truly sabotaged Brexit.

Do you think they care?

It seems your position is closer to Gina Miller's than to Jacob Rees-Mogg's.

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1089819354290704385

That deal is no longer available.

Indeed. More fictions, more fantasies, more procrastination...:(

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Chris said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1089942285658267648

So all the stuff about the DUP having agreed to support the deal and the speculation that they would bring 100 Tory MPs across with them was predicated on sheer fantasy.

That much was obvious a week ago.

Has anyone actually identified a single MP who has changed his or her position since the meaningful vote?

Well not since the vote..

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1089923239558762497

Unlike the hard as nails and dumb as rocks Brextards, she has looked over the cliff and doesn’t like the ending.

kle4 said:

ralphmalph said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1089947829383163904?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1089947829383163904&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/jan/28/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-will-commit-to-insisting-eu-replace-backstop-say-leading-tory-brexiters-politics-live

Seems to me a lot of the problem is that the No10 operation is incompetent. The arse does not know what the elbow is doing.

Yes, that seems the simplest explanation. Which, frankly, makes them a perfect fit for the party they lead. Not a one of them shows any quality right now. The sooner they are out of office the better.

Surely this chaos around the Brady amendment will secure some more votes for Cooper's plan? The 'pass an amended deal' plan was the only plan the government had to get something through it seems, and with that blown up surely enough Tories and Labour will fall back on the 'kick the can' plan?

We have arrived at a situation where most sensible people would agree that this appalling government needs to be kicked out of office yet with an opposition most people see is utterly unfit to govern. And with a third party that has been almost obliterated as punishment for what, against current sins, were relatively small mistakes. Woe betide the UK.

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

kle4 said:

If most Tory MPs were concerned about the next election they'd have come behind a single view by now, whatever it was. As frustrating as the lack of decision has been, and while May's indecision has been because she is too afraid of splitting her own party, that they are so ungovernable on this issue even to the idiotic point of derailing the entire project and possibly losing Brexit entirely, or alternately causing a no deal the remain faction claim not to want, it shows that they are, at least, truly focusing on this issue to the exclusion of other concerns. Because they cannot be so stupid as to think all out party war will be good for them.

You could be right. In which case Jeremy Corbyn is on his way to Downing St.

That will be quite something.

H

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

If most Tory MPs were concerned about the next election they'd have come behind a single view by now, whatever it was. As frustrating as the lack of decision has been, and while May's indecision has been because she is too afraid of splitting her own party, that they are so ungovernable on this issue even to the idiotic point of derailing the entire project and possibly losing Brexit entirely, or alternately causing a no deal the remain faction claim not to want, it shows that they are, at least, truly focusing on this issue to the exclusion of other concerns. Because they cannot be so stupid as to think all out party war will be good for them.

You could be right. In which case Jeremy Corbyn is on his way to Downing St.

That will be quite something.

Saying the same thing repeatedly, albeit with subtle tonal variations, doesn’t equal insight.

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllisonMorris1/status/1089898739676954624

Seems like a bit of a non-issue, unless you think there is going to be no extradition treaty between the EU and UK in the future?

We can't even agree on a withdrawal agreement (which we asked for and extends the status quo for several months) without Mark Francois busting a blood vessel and Tim Weatherspoon gobbing off. What do you think is the probability of this Parliament approving legislation that moves English people to European courts involuntarily?

matt said:

H

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

If most Tory MPs were concerned about the next election they'd have come behind a single view by now, whatever it was. As frustrating as the lack of decision has been, and while May's indecision has been because she is too afraid of splitting her own party, that they are so ungovernable on this issue even to the idiotic point of derailing the entire project and possibly losing Brexit entirely, or alternately causing a no deal the remain faction claim not to want, it shows that they are, at least, truly focusing on this issue to the exclusion of other concerns. Because they cannot be so stupid as to think all out party war will be good for them.

You could be right. In which case Jeremy Corbyn is on his way to Downing St.

That will be quite something.

Saying the same thing repeatedly, albeit with subtle tonal variations, doesn’t equal insight.

But that's my whole thing!

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

I wonder which of the various possible outcomes is worse for the Tories? Which one will mean that they lose the next election and lose it badly?

Because if it is very obviously one particular outcome, rather than any of the others, one would assume that everything the Labour leadership do from here will be geared with a lazer like focus to steering events towards that outcome.

I mean, this is what politics is about, right? - Power.

And especially for the Corbyn project at this time. They have the chance, if they play their cards right, to effect a massive and irreversible transfer of wealth and power in this country in favour of working people.

The chance will probably not come again, not in a lifetime, so surely they will at least do their damnedest to grab it.

If most Tory MPs were concerned about the next election they'd have come behind a single view by now, whatever it was. As frustrating as the lack of decision has been, and while May's indecision has been because she is too afraid of splitting her own party, that they are so ungovernable on this issue even to the idiotic point of derailing the entire project and possibly losing Brexit entirely, or alternately causing a no deal the remain faction claim not to want, it shows that they are, at least, truly focusing on this issue to the exclusion of other concerns. Because they cannot be so stupid as to think all out party war will be good for them.

Dunno. It worked for Labour.

And while lightning can in fact strike in the same way twice, the Tories should not expect that.

In the last 12 months they have proven that Corbyn would indeed be a better Prime Minister, something Corbyn himself is far too incompetent to prove.

Er, no. They have not proven that. .

Yes, they have. Corbyn could not be more incompetent than the Tories right now. They certainly haven't proven he would be any good, he'd be very crap I have no doubt, but this government and its farcical MPs deserve to see him become PM, and as bad as that will be for us, it'd be better than this shower.

Yes he could, and he would. Let's keep a sense of perspective here. May has Major (pun intended) faults but she hasn't launched a Chavez or Yeltsin style catastrophe on us.

That oversight might be corrected in two months and a day.

AlastairMeeks said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

I wonder which of the various possible outcomes is worse for the Tories? Which one will mean that they lose the next election and lose it badly?

Because if it is very obviously one particular outcome, rather than any of the others, one would assume that everything the Labour leadership do from here will be geared with a lazer like focus to steering events towards that outcome.

I mean, this is what politics is about, right? - Power.

And especially for the Corbyn project at this time. They have the chance, if they play their cards right, to effect a massive and irreversible transfer of wealth and power in this country in favour of working people.

The chance will probably not come again, not in a lifetime, so surely they will at least do their damnedest to grab it.

If most Tory MPs were concerned about the next election they'd have come behind a single view by now, whatever it was. As frustrating as the lack of decision has been, and while May's indecision has been because she is too afraid of splitting her own party, that they are so ungovernable on this issue even to the idiotic point of derailing the entire project and possibly losing Brexit entirely, or alternately causing a no deal the remain faction claim not to want, it shows that they are, at least, truly focusing on this issue to the exclusion of other concerns. Because they cannot be so stupid as to think all out party war will be good for them.

Dunno. It worked for Labour.

And while lightning can in fact strike in the same way twice, the Tories should not expect that.

In the last 12 months they have proven that Corbyn would indeed be a better Prime Minister, something Corbyn himself is far too incompetent to prove.

Er, no. They have not proven that. .

Yes, they have. Corbyn could not be more incompetent than the Tories right now. They certainly haven't proven he would be any good, he'd be very crap I have no doubt, but this government and its farcical MPs deserve to see him become PM, and as bad as that will be for us, it'd be better than this shower.

Yes he could, and he would. Let's keep a sense of perspective here. May has Major (pun intended) faults but she hasn't launched a Chavez or Yeltsin style catastrophe on us.

That oversight might be corrected in two months and a day.

It is most unlikely Brexit will cause 1,000,000% inflation.

Increasing the money supply by 50% in the first year, on the other hand...

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Just.Remain.Already. Why insult us with the extension nonsense? He can talk about the legislation needed for brexit all he wants, but that's a distraction if the brexit direction is not decided, we can request extensions if needed after we decide to deal or not deal.

The extension of course would be to enable moves towards Norway Plus or Customs Union BINO or Remain v Deal EUref2.

That is why if the Cooper amendment extending Article 50 and the Grieve amendment enabling Parliament to put forward its own Brexit proposals every Tuesday both pass Parliament will have taken control of the Brexit process

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Gummer was deselected by the voters of Ipswich last year but his views match those of Tory Remainers. (He was also 2 years above me at school and a Europhile even then)

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Just.Remain.Already. Why insult us with the extension nonsense? He can talk about the legislation needed for brexit all he wants, but that's a distraction if the brexit direction is not decided, we can request extensions if needed after we decide to deal or not deal.

The extension of course would be to enable moves towards Norway Plus or Customs Union BINO or Remain v Deal EUref2.

That is why if the Cooper amendment extending Article 50 and the Grieve amendment enabling Parliament to put forward its own Brexit proposals every Tuesday both pass Parliament will have taken control of the Brexit process

Unfortunately, every outcome other than the existing deal and no-deal requires the consent of the EU.

matt said:

Saying the same thing repeatedly, albeit with subtle tonal variations, doesn’t equal insight.

It depends what that thing is, surely.

A certain Theresa May has said "Brexit means Brexit" about a hundred times but has the repetition lessened its power and relevance?

I think not.

So tomorrow are we seriously going to be treated to the spectacle of May failing to get parliament to sabotage her own deal?

kinabalu said:

matt said:

Saying the same thing repeatedly, albeit with subtle tonal variations, doesn’t equal insight.

It depends what that thing is, surely.

A certain Theresa May has said "Brexit means Brexit" about a hundred times but has the repetition lessened its power and relevance?

I think not.

To be honest, it was a pretty low starting point

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Ben Gummer was never the Cabinet Secretary.

Cabinet Office Minister then

Fairly important distinction!

Streeter said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

Er, no. They have not proven that. .

Yes, they have. Corbyn could not be more incompetent than the Tories right now. They certainly haven't proven he would be any good, he'd be very crap I have no doubt, but this government and its farcical MPs deserve to see him become PM, and as bad as that will be for us, it'd be better than this shower.

Yes he could, and he would. Let's keep a sense of perspective here. May has Major (pun intended) faults but she hasn't launched a Chavez or Yeltsin style catastrophe on us.

Neither has Corbyn. Your point being?

Well, be fair, you have to get into power before you can prove how epically and disastrously you would screw things up. I mean, in 1991 there were people who thought Yeltsin was the answer to Russia's major problems. In 1998 Chavez won a popular election even though people knew he was a treacherous and violent scumbag who thought democracy applied to other people, because he promised to end corruption (which would be amusing if the consequences hadn't been so tragic).

And it's not that long ago a huge majority thought May was a good Prime Minister.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Watching the Tories push away their traditional core support amongst educated middle class businesspeople is a sight to behold. Historians will watch and wonder.

I really resent the fact that wanting to extend Article 50 is invariably interpreted as code for remain.

I think I speak for the sane majority when I say we will accept a consensus on any of the following: May's deal, Norway, Referendum choice between May's deal and Remain, Revoke.

What we will not accept is 'no deal' - because we love our country and its citizens too much to accept such a catastrophic outcome!!

ThomasNashe said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Watching the Tories push away their traditional core support amongst educated middle class businesspeople is a sight to behold. Historians will watch and wonder.

I really resent the fact that wanting to extend Article 50 is invariably interpreted as code for remain.

I think I speak for the sane majority when I say we will accept a consensus on any of the following: May's deal, Norway, Referendum choice between May's deal and Remain, Revoke.

What we will not accept is 'no deal' - because we love our country and its citizens too much to accept such a catastrophic outcome!!

But you don't need an extension to decide whether to do the deal, Norway, referendum etc. You need an extension once that option has been picked, to prepare for a vote, or get the necessary legislation through and so on.

A consensus is no more likely in 3 months than it is now, in which case it should be made to be now, whatever that consensus should be. It could well be a referendum, or remain, or a permanent customs union, that's fine. But MPs have discussed it all to death, why give them more time to do that?

That's why extension is seen by some as code for remain. Because it seems to be intended to ease us into a remain position, when if that is needed, of BINO, or No deal, we can decide that now.

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Watching the Tories push away their traditional core support amongst educated middle class businesspeople is a sight to behold. Historians will watch and wonder.

We are in a world where genuflecting to the views of the stupid is the dominant culture. Will that change? I hope so, but I’m not optimistic.

David_Evershed said:

David_Evershed said:

OldKingCole said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.

If the EU is a German superstate, why can't more of us speak German?

We've escaped assimilation into the Germanosphere by the skin of our teeth.

We do speak a sort of German.

Certainly a lot of Anglo Saxon spoken on PB with the additional asterisk letter used.

The Evershed family name was Everesheved back in the 1200s and is Anglo Saxon for Wild Boer's Head.

Ich bin ein Anglo Saxoner.

The Irish side of the family got to know Coeur De Lion after being imprisonned with him in Austria.

First hand experience of European hospitality

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Just.Remain.Already. Why insult us with the extension nonsense? He can talk about the legislation needed for brexit all he wants, but that's a distraction if the brexit direction is not decided, we can request extensions if needed after we decide to deal or not deal.

The extension of course would be to enable moves towards Norway Plus or Customs Union BINO or Remain v Deal EUref2.

That is why if the Cooper amendment extending Article 50 and the Grieve amendment enabling Parliament to put forward its own Brexit proposals every Tuesday both pass Parliament will have taken control of the Brexit process

Unfortunately, every outcome other than the existing deal and no-deal requires the consent of the EU.

And Juncker has already said the EU would accept a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union at the weekend and the EU would also allow most likely a Remain v Deal referendum both of which outcomes would be acceptable to them, especially the former

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Just.Remain.Already. Why insult us with the extension nonsense? He can talk about the legislation needed for brexit all he wants, but that's a distraction if the brexit direction is not decided, we can request extensions if needed after we decide to deal or not deal.

The extension of course would be to enable moves towards Norway Plus or Customs Union BINO or Remain v Deal EUref2.

That is why if the Cooper amendment extending Article 50 and the Grieve amendment enabling Parliament to put forward its own Brexit proposals every Tuesday both pass Parliament will have taken control of the Brexit process

Unfortunately, every outcome other than the existing deal and no-deal requires the consent of the EU.

And Juncker has already said the EU would accept a renegotiation based on a permanent Customs Union at the weekend and the EU would also allow most likely a Remain v Deal referendum both of which outcomes would be acceptable to them, especially the former

Another reason why people think extension is code for remain. Personally I'd go for the latter, but talk of it seems to have dropped off in the past week or so.

matt said:

Charles said:

David_Evershed said:

David_Evershed said:

OldKingCole said:

Theuniondivvie said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.

If the EU is a German superstate, why can't more of us speak German?

We've escaped assimilation into the Germanosphere by the skin of our teeth.

We do speak a sort of German.

Certainly a lot of Anglo Saxon spoken on PB with the additional asterisk letter used.

The Evershed family name was Everesheved back in the 1200s and is Anglo Saxon for Wild Boer's Head.

Ich bin ein Anglo Saxoner.

The Irish side of the family got to know Coeur De Lion after being imprisonned with him in Austria.

First hand experience of European hospitality

Do you have any further humblebrags that you’d like to share?

There was something humble in that brag? Seems more like an explanabrag.

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Watching the Tories push away their traditional core support amongst educated middle class businesspeople is a sight to behold. Historians will watch and wonder.

I really resent the fact that wanting to extend Article 50 is invariably interpreted as code for remain.

I think I speak for the sane majority when I say we will accept a consensus on any of the following: May's deal, Norway, Referendum choice between May's deal and Remain, Revoke.

What we will not accept is 'no deal' - because we love our country and its citizens too much to accept such a catastrophic outcome!!

But you don't need an extension to decide whether to do the deal, Norway, referendum etc. You need an extension once that option has been picked, to prepare for a vote, or get the necessary legislation through and so on.

A consensus is no more likely in 3 months than it is now, in which case it should be made to be now, whatever that consensus should be. It could well be a referendum, or remain, or a permanent customs union, that's fine. But MPs have discussed it all to death, why give them more time to do that?

That's why extension is seen by some as code for remain. Because it seems to be intended to ease us into a remain position, when if that is needed, of BINO, or No deal, we can decide that now.

We need new MPs and/or a new leader. Three months gives us time for that to happen, although you're quite right that May doesn't accept that logic.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Guardian reporting that John Trckett has said that Cooper's amendment does not respect the vote and most likely the party will allow a free vote

Do you want to split the Labour Party? Because that's how you split the Labour Party.

No, I take that back. Labour politicians' tribal loyalty is such that Corbyn could announce the slaughtering of the first-born and the centrists would tut, tweet in exasperation, and then do precisely nothing.

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Watching the Tories push away their traditional core support amongst educated middle class businesspeople is a sight to behold. Historians will watch and wonder.

I really resent the fact that wanting to extend Article 50 is invariably interpreted as code for remain.

I think I speak for the sane majority when I say we will accept a consensus on any of the following: May's deal, Norway, Referendum choice between May's deal and Remain, Revoke.

What we will not accept is 'no deal' - because we love our country and its citizens too much to accept such a catastrophic outcome!!

But you don't need an extension to decide whether to do the deal, Norway, referendum etc. You need an extension once that option has been picked, to prepare for a vote, or get the necessary legislation through and so on.

A consensus is no more likely in 3 months than it is now, in which case it should be made to be now, whatever that consensus should be. It could well be a referendum, or remain, or a permanent customs union, that's fine. But MPs have discussed it all to death, why give them more time to do that?

That's why extension is seen by some as code for remain. Because it seems to be intended to ease us into a remain position, when if that is needed, of BINO, or No deal, we can decide that now.

I don't really understand this line of reasoning. May has been incredibly obstructionist to any possibility except her own deal, so it's perfectly possible that once it's finally defeated again tomorrow progress can start on coalescing around a plan B. Given how slow parliament moves, 2 months seems like a very tight timescale for that, so it makes sense to move that deadline. Plus for somebody who thinks No Deal is way worse than any other option, taking it off the table (to the extent that's possible) is a goal unto itself, and one that's got much broader support than any specific final outcome, so why not focus on it?

Even if you're certain extra time won't help pick an outcome, how will it "help ease us into a remain position"? Surely the same logic that says no other option can gain ground in post-March extra time says the same thing about Remain?

Stereotomy said:

kle4 said:

ThomasNashe said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

Stop saying "extend" to some endless point, Gummer, and have the balls to say you want to cancel Brexit. Yes, you will be deselected, but at least you can hold your head up high.

Watching the Tories push away their traditional core support amongst educated middle class businesspeople is a sight to behold. Historians will watch and wonder.

I really resent the fact that wanting to extend Article 50 is invariably interpreted as code for remain.

I think I s a catastrophic outcome!!

But you don't need an extension to decide whether to do the deal, Norway, referendum etc. You need an extension once that option has been picked, to prepare for a vote, or get the necessary legislation through and so on.

A consensus is no more likely in 3 months than it is now, in which case it should be made to be now, whatever that consensus should be. It could well be a referendum, or remain, or a permanent customs union, that's fine. But MPs have discussed it all to death, why give them more time to do that?

That's why extension is seen by some as code for remain. Because it seems to be intended to ease us into a remain position, when if that is needed, of BINO, or No deal, we can decide that now.

I don't really understand this line of reasoning. May has been incredibly obstructionist to any possibility except her own deal, so it's perfectly possible that once it's finally defeated again tomorrow progress can start on coalescing around a plan B. Given how slow parliament moves, 2 months seems like a very tight timescale for that, so it makes sense to move that deadline. Plus for somebody who thinks No Deal is way worse than any other option, taking it off the table (to the extent that's possible) is a goal unto itself, and one that's got much broader support than any specific final outcome, so why not focus on it?

Even if you're certain extra time won't help pick an outcome, how will it "help ease us into a remain position"? Surely the same logic that says no other option can gain ground in post-March extra time says the same thing about Remain?

It's the one option that does better the more time there is for chaos on the other options. But in fairness you are right it doesn't make remain certain, that's the 'revoke and we'll sort brexit out later, we promise' option.

Harris_Tweed said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Beverley_C said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Beverley_C said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.

You seem to have missed the Elephant In The Room - inaction leads to No Deal and you get your precious Brexit.

Not really, if you read and understood my comment. If MPs are successful in grabbing control of the parliamentary agenda, which I referred to up front, there won’t be a Brexit.

I took the implication of your post to be that nothing will happen. As you say, MPs are deadlocked and the Maybot's programming does not allow her to make decisions and the Tories have made her invulnerable from deselection until the end of 2019.

No Deal looks nailed on (as they say around this parish)

I'm betting on No Deal as much as personal insurance as for a political bet.

At 6/1 on Betfair it's obvious value.

Worth reading the small print to that bet, which only pays off for a departure with no deal at end March. If there is any delay or extension then the bet fails, even if we eventually leave with no deal. Given that proviso I think the 6/1 is fair, not value

Edit/ and a lot less valuable as insurance against being shafted by no deal.

Thanks. Useful warning.

Still interested in the definition of “a deal” too. Because I suspect there’s a much slimmer “open in case of emergency” envelope in Barnier’s desk which basically says “OK, OK, we get it. How about we sort the planes and meds and stuff for 6 months?”. Is *that* a deal?

I'd have thought it's a package that's both ratified by the UK Parliament and the EU institutions under A50, but willing to be proved wrong on this.

gypsumfantastic said:

Churchill may have been a white supremacist and mass murderer, but he was OUR white supremacist and mass murderer.

If Churchill was all of those things, what was Hitler?

IanB2 said:

El_Capitano said:

IanB2 said:

MPs says May got a cheer turning against Boris Johnson in meeting

Yes, well done Theresa. Just as Boris is showing signs of coming round to your deal, you take the opportunity to humiliate him in front of all his fellow Conservative MPs. Very smart, S-M-R-T.

Nevertheless good to see that Boris is still very unpopular within the PCP

It's the only reason she's still in the job....

MarqueeMark said:

IanB2 said:

El_Capitano said:

IanB2 said:

MPs says May got a cheer turning against Boris Johnson in meeting

Yes, well done Theresa. Just as Boris is showing signs of coming round to your deal, you take the opportunity to humiliate him in front of all his fellow Conservative MPs. Very smart, S-M-R-T.

Nevertheless good to see that Boris is still very unpopular within the PCP

It's the only reason she's still in the job....

Do you still think May's deal without a backstop could pass? Seems like Brady amendment will fail.

FA cup

Chelsea v Man Utd

If winner draws City in next round, the winner of that then turns this years FA cup into the most boring one for years

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Next meaningful vote is on the 13th February

We can say this for Mrs May: she doesn't like to be rushed.

Charles said:

AndyJS said:

"Brexit: High risk of UK crashing out - EU negotiator

There is a high risk of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal by accident, the EU's deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand has said.
She said there was "full ownership of what was agreed" in the EU, but "no ownership" of it in the UK Parliament."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47024450

They keep saying it was agreed

May - AIUI - has no authority to agree a deal without approval from Parliament

Therefore it is not agreed

Crown in parliament, innit.

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1089965754743705600?s=19

Columnist Isabel Hardman said it was important to acknowledge where great figures got things wrong, but she objected to the tone of Ross Greer's tweet.

She said: "I think this tweet is an example of where our political discourse is going which is a sort of 'Miley Cyrus-isation' of politics where everyone is trying to get attention, including with little clappy hands in the tweet to sort of say 'look at me' - and I don't think that's particularly helpful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47028246

And yet because it he is going to be on national telly again....

kinabalu said:

El_Capitano said:

Labour politicians' tribal loyalty is such that Corbyn could announce the slaughtering of the first-born and the centrists would tut, tweet in exasperation, and then do precisely nothing.

You talk as if party discipline is a bad thing. It is in fact essential. A Corbyn government will face much opposition. I doubt it will be able to do the things it wants to do. Without a well behaved parliamentary party it will have no chance at all.

It would have to be a complete disintegration of the Tories and SNP for Jezza to have a working majority to overule his sensible centrists, so chill and enjoy the ride.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1089965754743705600?s=19

Columnist Isabel Hardman said it was important to acknowledge where great figures got things wrong, but she objected to the tone of Ross Greer's tweet.

She said: "I think this tweet is an example of where our political discourse is going which is a sort of 'Miley Cyrus-isation' of politics where everyone is trying to get attention, including with little clappy hands in the tweet to sort of say 'look at me' - and I don't think that's particularly helpful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47028246

And yet because it he is going to be on national telly again....

That's exactly it.

It's working, though, isn't it? He's got himself noticed and we're all talking about him, including me.

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1089965754743705600?s=19

Columnist Isabel Hardman said it was important to acknowledge where great figures got things wrong, but she objected to the tone of Ross Greer's tweet.

She said: "I think this tweet is an example of where our political discourse is going which is a sort of 'Miley Cyrus-isation' of politics where everyone is trying to get attention, including with little clappy hands in the tweet to sort of say 'look at me' - and I don't think that's particularly helpful.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47028246

And yet because it he is going to be on national telly again....

That's exactly it.

It's working, though, isn't it? He's got himself noticed and we're all talking about him, including me.

Katie Hopkins made a career out of it...