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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the whic

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  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
    No. Very hard tô see how May could engineer this - MPs will suggest Remain or delay as amendments and Bercow will allow them to be put. And delay would probably win.
    I'm half convinced that really was May's only plan, that she was blindsided by the A50 case decision making revocation so much easier a prospect (previously it could not be certain to work even if we wanted to go down that route), and has simply never come up with another stratagem.
    Possibly. Though I think May's plan, Inasmuch as there was one, was to call an election, win a big majority and then force her version of Brexit on everyone else. And she has not changed it one iota since the election - she seems unable to grasp the simply repeating that she is right and the deal is a good one is not going to convince many people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
    No. Very hard tô see how May could engineer this - MPs will suggest Remain or delay as amendments and Bercow will allow them to be put. And delay would probably win.
    I'm half convinced that really was May's only plan, that she was blindsided by the A50 case decision making revocation so much easier a prospect (previously it could not be certain to work even if we wanted to go down that route), and has simply never come up with another stratagem.
    Possibly. Though I think May's plan, Inasmuch as there was one, was to call an election, win a big majority and then force her version of Brexit on everyone else. And she has not changed it one iota since the election - she seems unable to grasp the simply repeating that she is right and the deal is a good one is not going to convince many people.
    Oh I think that is true too, mine merely followed yours.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Cameron coming across very badly in the BBC 2 thing.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Jonathan said:

    Cameron coming across very badly in the BBC 2 thing.

    A fair portrayal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
    No. Very hard tô see how May could engineer this - MPs will suggest Remain or delay as amendments and Bercow will allow them to be put. And delay would probably win.
    I'm half convinced that really was May's only plan, that she was blindsided by the A50 case decision making revocation so much easier a prospect (previously it could not be certain to work even if we wanted to go down that route), and has simply never come up with another stratagem.
    Possibly. Though I think May's plan, Inasmuch as there was one, was to call an election, win a big majority and then force her version of Brexit on everyone else. And she has not changed it one iota since the election - she seems unable to grasp the simply repeating that she is right and the deal is a good one is not going to convince many people.
    Such a good one that she is now whipping an amendment to change it...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It’s also worth noting that YouGov have had to massively weight that poll. Remainers are happy to identify themselves, Leavers, it seems, are much less keen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
    No. Very hard tô see how May could engineer this - MPs will suggest Remain or delay as amendments and Bercow will allow them to be put. And delay would probably win.
    I'm half convinced that really was May's only plan, that she was blindsided by the A50 case decision making revocation so much easier a prospect (previously it could not be certain to work even if we wanted to go down that route), and has simply never come up with another stratagem.
    Possibly. Though I think May's plan, Inasmuch as there was one, was to call an election, win a big majority and then force her version of Brexit on everyone else. And she has not changed it one iota since the election - she seems unable to grasp the simply repeating that she is right and the deal is a good one is not going to convince many people.
    Such a good one that she is now whipping an amendment to change it...
    An amendment to tell herself to try to change it more like?

    Hey, it is almost, but not quite, progress, in that she does clearly understand that the deal, whatever its merits, is dead as it stands.
  • NEW THREAD

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    It’s also worth noting that YouGov have had to massively weight that poll. Remainers are happy to identify themselves, Leavers, it seems, are much less keen.

    As a lifelong remainer I find it a very curious attitude indeed.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edited January 2019

    Jonathan said:

    Cameron coming across very badly in the BBC 2 thing.

    A fair portrayal.
    Sir Fred Goodwin brought down RBS. As a result, he lost his knighthood. Some people wanted him to lose his pension.

    Mr David Cameron precipitated a constitutional crisis and made the UK an international laughing stock. As a result, what should he lose?

    Answers on a postcard, please.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    This is going swimmingly:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3vq4kkd53t/5News_BrexitMentalHealth_190118_w.pdf

    By 24:44 people think Brexit will make life worse, by 32:3 they think it has already made life worse. Not a single Remain voter from 2016 feels happy about Brexit.

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?
This discussion has been closed.