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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the whic

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019

    Alistair said:
    Columnist Isabel Hardman said it was important to acknowledge where great figures got things wrong, but she objected to the tone of Ross Greer's tweet.

    She said: "I think this tweet is an example of where our political discourse is going which is a sort of 'Miley Cyrus-isation' of politics where everyone is trying to get attention, including with little clappy hands in the tweet to sort of say 'look at me' - and I don't think that's particularly helpful.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47028246

    And yet because it he is going to be on national telly again....
    That's exactly it.

    It's working, though, isn't it? He's got himself noticed and we're all talking about him, including me.
    Katie Hopkins made a career out of it...
    And then got herself into bankruptcy?
    Well yes...her response to that law suit was about as well thought out of a certain Labour MP made up Russian joyrider.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ydoethur said:

    Never heard 'brown envelope' jobs called 'wages' before.

    You never got a paypacket?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    https://twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

    Ben Gummer was never the Cabinet Secretary.
    I think he was Cabinet Office Minister though, which is significant less important
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    Will they all be singing that at Glasto this year?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Alistair said:
    Columnist Isabel Hardman said it was important to acknowledge where great figures got things wrong, but she objected to the tone of Ross Greer's tweet.

    She said: "I think this tweet is an example of where our political discourse is going which is a sort of 'Miley Cyrus-isation' of politics where everyone is trying to get attention, including with little clappy hands in the tweet to sort of say 'look at me' - and I don't think that's particularly helpful.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47028246

    And yet because it he is going to be on national telly again....
    That's exactly it.

    It's working, though, isn't it? He's got himself noticed and we're all talking about him, including me.
    Katie Hopkins made a career out of it...
    And then got herself into bankruptcy?
    It’s amazing how far people will go rather than admit they’re wrong.

  • Well yes...her response to that law suit was about as well thought out of a certain Labour MP made up Russian joyrider.

    I think someone worked out the Mail paid a seven figure total in damages and legal fees following all the problems from her columns.

    Here's some examples.

    Mail pays out £150,000 to Muslim family over Katie Hopkins column

    Hopkins had falsely accused Mahmood family, who were stopped from visiting Disneyland by US authorities, of extremist links

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/dec/19/mail-pays-out-150k-to-muslim-family-over-katie-hopkins-column

    Mail Online to pay damages to teacher over Katie Hopkins column

    Columnist falsely accused Jackie Teale of taking schoolchildren to demonstration against Donald Trump in Westminster

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/28/mail-online-damages-teacher-katie-hopkins-column

    Cannot understand why the Mail let her go.

  • Well yes...her response to that law suit was about as well thought out of a certain Labour MP made up Russian joyrider.

    I think someone worked out the Mail paid a seven figure total in damages and legal fees following all the problems from her columns.

    Here's some examples.

    Mail pays out £150,000 to Muslim family over Katie Hopkins column

    Hopkins had falsely accused Mahmood family, who were stopped from visiting Disneyland by US authorities, of extremist links

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/dec/19/mail-pays-out-150k-to-muslim-family-over-katie-hopkins-column

    Mail Online to pay damages to teacher over Katie Hopkins column

    Columnist falsely accused Jackie Teale of taking schoolchildren to demonstration against Donald Trump in Westminster

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/28/mail-online-damages-teacher-katie-hopkins-column

    Cannot understand why the Mail let her go.
    I reckon she is definitely a milk in firster....
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

    Ben Gummer was never the Cabinet Secretary.
    I think he was Cabinet Office Minister though, which is significant less important
    Minister for Burger Consumption perhaps?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Kudos to Corbyn.

    On a day when the government look even more chaotic than yesterday, he manages to out-omnishambles them.

    Again.

    https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1089974029698650112
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Kudos to Corbyn.

    On a day when the government look even more chaotic than yesterday, he manages to out-omnishambles them.

    Again.

    twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1089974029698650112

    The leaders of both of our major parties. Both utterly clueless....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1089977093155360768

    Boris Johnson PM - Crickey have I had an afternoon nap and all shit broke loose?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    https://twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    I don't quite know what I'm looking at.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    Will they all be singing that at Glasto this year?
    In 2020 youtube videos of that Glasto chant will be as cringey as 2015 youtube videos about putting loombands on fidget spinners.
  • Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    Will they all be singing that at Glasto this year?
    In 2020 youtube videos of that Glasto chant will be as cringey as 2015 youtube videos about putting loombands on fidget spinners.
    If only pissing Fortnite would go the way of loombands and fidget spinners...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    matt said:

    Charles said:

    Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
    https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

    Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

    In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.
    If the EU is a German superstate, why can't more of us speak German?
    We've escaped assimilation into the Germanosphere by the skin of our teeth.
    We do speak a sort of German.
    Certainly a lot of Anglo Saxon spoken on PB with the additional asterisk letter used.

    The Evershed family name was Everesheved back in the 1200s and is Anglo Saxon for Wild Boer's Head.

    Ich bin ein Anglo Saxoner.
    The Irish side of the family got to know Coeur De Lion after being imprisonned with him in Austria.

    First hand experience of European hospitality
    Do you have any further humblebrags that you’d like to share?
    You can find them all on google if you care that much
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?

    Perhaps she wants to be seen to be 'forced' by the house to do something that will fail so she can say they share in her defeat this time (previously the EU agreed her deal and it was parliament who said no to it after all), thus opening the door to them all deciding to just cave?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    Will they all be singing that at Glasto this year?
    In 2020 youtube videos of that Glasto chant will be as cringey as 2015 youtube videos about putting loombands on fidget spinners.
    If only pissing Fortnite would go the way of loombands and fidget spinners...
    More of a PUBG man?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    https://twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    I don't quite know what I'm looking at.
    THE LYRICS ARE RIGHT THERE KLE4.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Alistair said:
    Columnist Isabel Hardman said it was important to acknowledge where great figures got things wrong, but she objected to the tone of Ross Greer's tweet.

    She said: "I think this tweet is an example of where our political discourse is going which is a sort of 'Miley Cyrus-isation' of politics where everyone is trying to get attention, including with little clappy hands in the tweet to sort of say 'look at me' - and I don't think that's particularly helpful.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47028246

    And yet because it he is going to be on national telly again....
    That's exactly it.

    It's working, though, isn't it? He's got himself noticed and we're all talking about him, including me.
    Katie Hopkins made a career out of it...
    And then got herself into bankruptcy?
    Well yes...her response to that law suit was about as well thought out of a certain Labour MP made up Russian joyrider.
    Hey, she might yet win the day pending her appeal!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    The word 'seeking' seems like a crucial one there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?

    Perhaps she wants to be seen to be 'forced' by the house to do something that will fail so she can say they share in her defeat this time (previously the EU agreed her deal and it was parliament who said no to it after all), thus opening the door to them all deciding to just cave?
    In which case I suspect she may be overthinking.
  • kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    https://twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    I don't quite know what I'm looking at.
    Jeremy Corbyn?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    Will they all be singing that at Glasto this year?
    In 2020 youtube videos of that Glasto chant will be as cringey as 2015 youtube videos about putting loombands on fidget spinners.
    If only pissing Fortnite would go the way of loombands and fidget spinners...
    More of a PUBG man?
    PUBG has turned into a shit show....Fortnite though, try talking to any child and all you will get is babble about Fortnite and they will start Jones-ing like some addict if they don't get to play it (or very least watch it on YouTube / Twitch).

    All the parents I know, all they talk about is how trying to get their kids away from Fortnite is a daily battle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Brexit: High risk of UK crashing out - EU negotiator

    There is a high risk of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal by accident, the EU's deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand has said.
    She said there was "full ownership of what was agreed" in the EU, but "no ownership" of it in the UK Parliament."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47024450

    They keep saying it was agreed

    May - AIUI - has no authority to agree a deal without approval from Parliament

    Therefore it is not agreed
    They are being deliberately obtuse on that point, they are not fools and know how our government works. But as a token of intent on their part it is still telling.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

    Ben Gummer was never the Cabinet Secretary.
    I think he was Cabinet Office Minister though, which is significant less important
    Minister for Burger Consumption perhaps?
    His Dad(?) I think - John Selwyn Gummer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    Will they all be singing that at Glasto this year?
    In 2020 youtube videos of that Glasto chant will be as cringey as 2015 youtube videos about putting loombands on fidget spinners.
    If only pissing Fortnite would go the way of loombands and fidget spinners...
    More of a PUBG man?
    PUBG has turned into a shit show....Fortnite though, try talking to any child and all you will get is babble about Fortnite and they will start Jones-ing like some addict if they don't get to play it (or very least watch it on YouTube / Twitch).
    I understand from those with kids you are not exaggerating. Kids, they don't even know how to game properly anymore!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?

    Perhaps she wants to be seen to be 'forced' by the house to do something that will fail so she can say they share in her defeat this time (previously the EU agreed her deal and it was parliament who said no to it after all), thus opening the door to them all deciding to just cave?
    In which case I suspect she may be overthinking.
    Her actions to date indicate she has either done far too little thinking, or far too much thinking, with the same result - inability to move forward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    Those of you looking for a non-partisan but delightedly parliamentary way of passing the next 30 seconds should click here:

    https://twitter.com/Darren_Dutton/status/1089298638373879808

    No autotune, apparently. Just Bercow.

    I don't quite know what I'm looking at.
    Jeremy Corbyn?
    Ah, I can see where I was going wrong.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Apologies if this has already been posted but here is a useful summary of the amendments that have been tabled to tomorrow's vote:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-next-steps-brexit

    It will be interesting to see which of these Bercow selects.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Interesting how much the EU are clear you cannot go back on a decision, when they are seemingly willing for us to go back on the Brexit decision.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Apologies if this has already been posted but here is a useful summary of the amendments that have been tabled to tomorrow's vote:

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-next-steps-brexit

    It will be interesting to see which of these Bercow selects.

    I honestly do not know on what grounds he selects, particularly when some are so similar to each other.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    Interesting how much the EU are clear you cannot go back on a decision, when they are seemingly willing for us to go back on the Brexit decision.
    There isn’t the slightest chance of the EU going back on its decision unless the U.K. comes up with a stable position that might stick. Even then, that position will need to be laced with some realism, which seems still less likely.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Velma from Scooby Do is the EU deputy negotiator? Did we get Shaggy?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    So if she's correct we've dug our own elephant trap.

    Ingenious...
  • Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Nope. She's Barnier's representative on Earth.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    I know it's a pain in the arse leaving the EU, but won't it be great when we don't have to do what these fat bossy Germans want?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Former Cabinet Secretary Ben Gummer 'Threat to leave the EU with No Deal is pie in the sky, so extend Article 50'

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/threat-to-leave-eu-with-no-deal-is-pie-in-the-sky-so-extend-article-50-a4050536.html

    Ben Gummer was never the Cabinet Secretary.
    I think he was Cabinet Office Minister though, which is significant less important
    Minister for Burger Consumption perhaps?
    His Dad(?) I think - John Selwyn Gummer
    Thanks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    They know what concessions we want, what are they talking about? That we negotiated the backstop is not of huge concern, it is now the thing which is the biggest stumbling block whoever came up with it.

    I really find the smug preening of the EU on this point rather baffling - is it making them feel better to know it will be our fault if we no deal? Perhaps they will get lucky and we will indeed cave one last time, but this self satisfaction that we're responsible for our own mess is odd when they will at the least catch some of the mess when we land in it, and they could so easily avoid it (or at least make it a lot closer to being avoided).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    If they really mean that, then we just have a choice between the Deal as it is now, No Deal and Revocation.

    Obviously that implies an extension is pointless, unless it's for (1) passing necessary legislation after the choice has been made, (2) a referendum or (3) a general election. And there would be no guarantee that a general election would resolve the problem.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    kle4 said:

    They know what concessions we want, what are they talking about? That we negotiated the backstop is not of huge concern, it is now the thing which is the biggest stumbling block whoever came up with it.

    I really find the smug preening of the EU on this point rather baffling - is it making them feel better to know it will be our fault if we no deal? Perhaps they will get lucky and we will indeed cave one last time, but this self satisfaction that we're responsible for our own mess is odd when they will at the least catch some of the mess when we land in it, and they could so easily avoid it (or at least make it a lot closer to being avoided).
    But their frustration is understandable if May has insisted on including something that a large chunk of her own MPs won't accept.
  • kle4 said:

    They know what concessions we want, what are they talking about? That we negotiated the backstop is not of huge concern, it is now the thing which is the biggest stumbling block whoever came up with it.

    I really find the smug preening of the EU on this point rather baffling - is it making them feel better to know it will be our fault if we no deal? Perhaps they will get lucky and we will indeed cave one last time, but this self satisfaction that we're responsible for our own mess is odd when they will at the least catch some of the mess when we land in it, and they could so easily avoid it (or at least make it a lot closer to being avoided).

    We agreed the backstop, now we don’t want it. What is the serious, viable alternative?

  • kle4 said:

    Interesting how much the EU are clear you cannot go back on a decision, when they are seemingly willing for us to go back on the Brexit decision.
    There isn’t the slightest chance of the EU going back on its decision unless the U.K. comes up with a stable position that might stick. Even then, that position will need to be laced with some realism, which seems still less likely.

    The EU is not negotiating with a country. It is negotiating with a political party that is split from top to bottom.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Chris said:

    twitter.com/channel4news/status/1089967123848417281?s=21

    If they really mean that, then we just have a choice between the Deal as it is now, No Deal and Revocation.

    Obviously that implies an extension is pointless, unless it's for (1) passing necessary legislation after the choice has been made, (2) a referendum or (3) a general election. And there would be no guarantee that a general election would resolve the problem.
    Yes - those points are correct. Some of our MPs are fools, some are blinded by ideology, but the bulk know the above is the case and all the options that are available. They simply seem to lack the nerve to select one.

    Since nobody except the swivel-eyed loons of the ERG think "No Deal" is a good idea, that leaves us Maybot's Deal or Revoke. What a pity they all voted for "No Deal" 2 years ago. Idiots.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    So all in all another successful day in Brexit-land so far then?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    How do you prepare the ground for ditching your backstop without looking like you're ditching your backstop? Say it's not your backstop.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Drutt said:

    How do you prepare the ground for ditching your backstop without looking like you're ditching your backstop? Say it's not your backstop.
    She's right, though, isn't she? The entire backstop is the result of Britain's red lines.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    It’s all about winning the blame game now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?

    Perhaps she wants to be seen to be 'forced' by the house to do something that will fail so she can say they share in her defeat this time (previously the EU agreed her deal and it was parliament who said no to it after all), thus opening the door to them all deciding to just cave?
    One thing that is obvious is we don't have enough time left to prepare for any sort of Leave by end March. Hence we absolutely need to delay.

    Another thing that is obvious is that the government party cannot survive being seen to promote such an extension itself.

    Hence the only solution is an extension forced upon them by the opposition and some rebels.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Drutt said:

    How do you prepare the ground for ditching your backstop without looking like you're ditching your backstop? Say it's not your backstop.
    That's a... creative reading of her message
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    Don't worry German car manufacturers will come to the rescue.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited January 2019

    Drutt said:

    How do you prepare the ground for ditching your backstop without looking like you're ditching your backstop? Say it's not your backstop.
    That's a... creative reading of her message
    Another Brexiter flailing around trying to grasp a piece of driftwood from a wreckage of their own making.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?

    Perhaps she wants to be seen to be 'forced' by the house to do something that will fail so she can say they share in her defeat this time (previously the EU agreed her deal and it was parliament who said no to it after all), thus opening the door to them all deciding to just cave?
    One thing that is obvious is we don't have enough time left to prepare for any sort of Leave by end March. Hence we absolutely need to delay.

    Another thing that is obvious is that the government party cannot survive being seen to promote such an extension itself.

    Hence the only solution is an extension forced upon them by the opposition and some rebels.
    but it is not some rebels, it is a significant number of rebels. If the ERG and DUP keep voting against, then 120+ rebels are needed. Or half the PLP. Never going to happen in my view.

    Edit: Sorry you said the opposition would support an extension. I do not believe this.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    kle4 said:

    Interesting how much the EU are clear you cannot go back on a decision, when they are seemingly willing for us to go back on the Brexit decision.
    I don't think they're trying to sell not going back on decisions as a general concept, so much as refusing to go back on this particular one
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    Don't worry German car manufacturers will come to the rescue.
    Nah, Mark Francois is going to head them off at the ports.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    So May is now whipping an amendment forcing her to go back to re-negotiate her own Deal? To replace the backstop with...er...something else?
    Which will probably be defeated.
    So. She is likely to lose her Deal. And lose on forcing herself to the re-negotiating table.
    If she wins, then in the face of such a powerful mandate, the EU is bound to cave?
    Have I got that right?

    Perhaps she wants to be seen to be 'forced' by the house to do something that will fail so she can say they share in her defeat this time (previously the EU agreed her deal and it was parliament who said no to it after all), thus opening the door to them all deciding to just cave?
    One thing that is obvious is we don't have enough time left to prepare for any sort of Leave by end March. Hence we absolutely need to delay.

    Another thing that is obvious is that the government party cannot survive being seen to promote such an extension itself.

    Hence the only solution is an extension forced upon them by the opposition and some rebels.
    The EU may say we can have an 8-week extension, but only on condition we make a definite decision first.
  • The former CEO of coffee chain Starbucks has said he is "seriously considering" running for president. Howard Schultz, who stepped down as the firm's boss last year, says he is considering running as a centrist independent candidate in 2020.

    I am sure his companies record of aggressive tax efficiency won’t come up as an issue.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    They know what concessions we want, what are they talking about? That we negotiated the backstop is not of huge concern, it is now the thing which is the biggest stumbling block whoever came up with it.

    I really find the smug preening of the EU on this point rather baffling - is it making them feel better to know it will be our fault if we no deal? Perhaps they will get lucky and we will indeed cave one last time, but this self satisfaction that we're responsible for our own mess is odd when they will at the least catch some of the mess when we land in it, and they could so easily avoid it (or at least make it a lot closer to being avoided).
    But their frustration is understandable if May has insisted on including something that a large chunk of her own MPs won't accept.
    You could offer a number of those MPs the moon on a stick and they would complain about the type of wood.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Labour bringing its big guns to bear: just a paltry one-line whip against the Immigration Bill, on which this morning the leadership wanted to abstain.
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    And then what?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    And then what?

    Whoever wins gets majority power. Woe betide the rest of us.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Well, no, obviously. Which does make EU's reticence more reasonable, since there's no guarantee that the deal gets through even if they concede on the backstop.

    kle4 said:

    Interesting how much the EU are clear you cannot go back on a decision, when they are seemingly willing for us to go back on the Brexit decision.
    I don't think they're trying to sell not going back on decisions as a general concept, so much as refusing to go back on this particular one
    Which would carry more weight if the whole thing might not collapse by refusing to do so. Cutting of the nose and so on (yes, we're doing it too)

    Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    Don't worry German car manufacturers will come to the rescue.
    Phew! Boy, they like to leave it late, those wacky pranksters.

    kle4 said:
    We agreed the backstop, now we don’t want it. What is the serious, viable alternative?

    I wasn't saying them refusing was unreasonable, I'm saying this smug attitude and continuing insistence they don't know what we want on this point is entirely phoney. We did not agree the backstop, the government did, and it is not getting through. I accepted it on the basis I think it's one of the prices of a deal, but parliament disagrees. The EU is not obliged to change their mind on what they consider a fair deal, but this game they play, and the EU have always done this, in pretending not to understand us (while also simultaneously speaking as if totally understanding us better than we do) is just needless gameplaying.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    They know what concessions we want, what are they talking about? That we negotiated the backstop is not of huge concern, it is now the thing which is the biggest stumbling block whoever came up with it.

    I really find the smug preening of the EU on this point rather baffling - is it making them feel better to know it will be our fault if we no deal? Perhaps they will get lucky and we will indeed cave one last time, but this self satisfaction that we're responsible for our own mess is odd when they will at the least catch some of the mess when we land in it, and they could so easily avoid it (or at least make it a lot closer to being avoided).
    But their frustration is understandable if May has insisted on including something that a large chunk of her own MPs won't accept.
    May knew their preferred option (NI only backstop) had less chance of passing

    BTW is it just me or have all the broadcast media been calling the backstop “an insurance policy” for the last few days. Almost as if someone wanted it to sound less threatening
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Oh FFS! Just revoke Article 50 and get on with it. Explain that there is no agreement in any party or Parliament on how to leave, that a No Deal exit is too uncertain and harmful to the country and that no responsible politician would inflict that on the country, even if the price is the loss of their job. Explain that there is no shame in changing one's mind when the facts change, referendum vote notwithstanding and that if the voters don't like it they can make their views known at the next election.

    For good measure, say that referenda for such questions are bloody silly ideas in a Parliamentary democracy. If we want to have referenda like the Swiss do, they we need to do a whole load of other things the Swiss do as well to make them work. We don't and haven't here. And it's clear that trying to force through a country-changing decision through bullying, Parliamentary chicanery, in a panic, at the last-minute, when we haven't prepared - and are not in a position to prepare - for one of the alternatives is the stupidest way possible to make a decision.

    So the Tory party gets destroyed. So bloody what? It is busy destroying itself at the moment. At least this way it doesn't take the country with it.

    If people want to leave the EU in the future, fine. At least they can learn some lessons from the shambles of the last 3 years about what they need to think about before doing so.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    And then what?

    You know what, I don’t think they’ve thought that far ahead. Just so long as the other lot take the damage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    They know what concessions we want, what are they talking about? That we negotiated the backstop is not of huge concern, it is now the thing which is the biggest stumbling block whoever came up with it.

    I really find the smug preening of the EU on this point rather baffling - is it making them feel better to know it will be our fault if we no deal? Perhaps they will get lucky and we will indeed cave one last time, but this self satisfaction that we're responsible for our own mess is odd when they will at the least catch some of the mess when we land in it, and they could so easily avoid it (or at least make it a lot closer to being avoided).
    But their frustration is understandable if May has insisted on including something that a large chunk of her own MPs won't accept.
    Frustration, yes, but the smug pretence they don't know what the problem is (and notably this is one thing it is not May's fault) is false, and just a chance for them to be sarcastic, which is pretty silly considering they are caught in the shit splash zone.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:
    I hope he has evidence for that accusation they are in breach of the Sherman Act
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh FFS! Just revoke Article 50 and get on with it. .

    Parliament doesn't have the balls for that. Baby steps toward revocation, but not yet, clearly.

    Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    And then what?

    Why would that concern the Tory and Labour leaderships?

    To borrow a phrase, they would both see this country burn if it meant they could rule over the ashes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    True Detective series 3 episode 4. Do. Not. Disturb......
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh FFS! Just revoke Article 50 and get on with it. Explain that there is no agreement in any party or Parliament on how to leave, that a No Deal exit is too uncertain and harmful to the country and that no responsible politician would inflict that on the country, even if the price is the loss of their job. Explain that there is no shame in changing one's mind when the facts change, referendum vote notwithstanding and that if the voters don't like it they can make their views known at the next election.

    For good measure, say that referenda for such questions are bloody silly ideas in a Parliamentary democracy. If we want to have referenda like the Swiss do, they we need to do a whole load of other things the Swiss do as well to make them work. We don't and haven't here. And it's clear that trying to force through a country-changing decision through bullying, Parliamentary chicanery, in a panic, at the last-minute, when we haven't prepared - and are not in a position to prepare - for one of the alternatives is the stupidest way possible to make a decision.

    So the Tory party gets destroyed. So bloody what? It is busy destroying itself at the moment. At least this way it doesn't take the country with it.

    If people want to leave the EU in the future, fine. At least they can learn some lessons from the shambles of the last 3 years about what they need to think about before doing so.

    Way too sensible. And for our politicians, the third para simply won't compute.
  • True Detective series 3 episode 4. Do. Not. Disturb......

    No spoilers, I am behind...
  • IanB2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Oh FFS! Just revoke Article 50 and get on with it. Explain that there is no agreement in any party or Parliament on how to leave, that a No Deal exit is too uncertain and harmful to the country and that no responsible politician would inflict that on the country, even if the price is the loss of their job. Explain that there is no shame in changing one's mind when the facts change, referendum vote notwithstanding and that if the voters don't like it they can make their views known at the next election.

    For good measure, say that referenda for such questions are bloody silly ideas in a Parliamentary democracy. If we want to have referenda like the Swiss do, they we need to do a whole load of other things the Swiss do as well to make them work. We don't and haven't here. And it's clear that trying to force through a country-changing decision through bullying, Parliamentary chicanery, in a panic, at the last-minute, when we haven't prepared - and are not in a position to prepare - for one of the alternatives is the stupidest way possible to make a decision.

    So the Tory party gets destroyed. So bloody what? It is busy destroying itself at the moment. At least this way it doesn't take the country with it.

    If people want to leave the EU in the future, fine. At least they can learn some lessons from the shambles of the last 3 years about what they need to think about before doing so.

    Way too sensible. And for our politicians, the third para simply won't compute.
    Absolutely right, and absolutely not going to happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Seems like that guardian letter from the usual suspects backing up Venezuela was a clusterf##k. They included a peer as a supposed signature, but says she knew nothing about it and doesn’t agree. Then they claimed it was actually they meant another lady...who is dead.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    True Detective series 3 episode 4. Do. Not. Disturb......

    No spoilers, I am behind...
    The tall guy did it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited January 2019

    Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Velma from Scooby Do is the EU deputy negotiator? Did we get Shaggy?
    Unfortunately, the Conservative Party decided to split up and look for clues. They still don't have one.
    But they are sure there is a scary old allotment owner around frightening people away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Seems like that guardian letter from the usual suspects backing up Venezuela was a clusterf##k. They included a peer who says she didn’t agree to it, then they claimed it was actually another lady...who is dead.

    This sort of thing seems to happen a lot with these open letters, whoever is doing them. In this day and age is it really that hard to only include names of those who categorically confirm they back a drafted text?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
    No. Very hard tô see how May could engineer this - MPs will suggest Remain or delay as amendments and Bercow will allow them to be put. And delay would probably win.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Velma from Scooby Do is the EU deputy negotiator? Did we get Shaggy?
    Unfortunately, the Conservative Party decided to split up and look for clues. They still don't have one.
    But they are sure there is a scary old allotment owner around frightening people away.
    Brexit probably would have succeeded if it had not been for that pesky EU Commission and their running-dog negotiators....
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Velma from Scooby Do is the EU deputy negotiator? Did we get Shaggy?
    Unfortunately, the Conservative Party decided to split up and look for clues. They still don't have one.
    But they are sure there is a scary old allotment owner around frightening people away.
    Yesterday when I mentioned to my son that the Sunday papers were referring to the possibility of martial law being used in the event of riots etc, he responded by saying "And these people think we'll be scared when they say that Corbyn will turn us into Venezuela."

    He has a point. The Tories are not just making it more likely that Corbyn will be PM but they are undermining any argument they might want to make that his brand of left-wing politics will be no good for Britain.

    (For the record, my son has turned away from Corbyn precisely because he is doing nothing to stop Brexit.)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh FFS! Just revoke Article 50 and get on with it. Explain that there is no agreement in any party or Parliament on how to leave, that a No Deal exit is too uncertain and harmful to the country and that no responsible politician would inflict that on the country, even if the price is the loss of their job. Explain that there is no shame in changing one's mind when the facts change, referendum vote notwithstanding and that if the voters don't like it they can make their views known at the next election.

    For good measure, say that referenda for such questions are bloody silly ideas in a Parliamentary democracy. If we want to have referenda like the Swiss do, they we need to do a whole load of other things the Swiss do as well to make them work. We don't and haven't here. And it's clear that trying to force through a country-changing decision through bullying, Parliamentary chicanery, in a panic, at the last-minute, when we haven't prepared - and are not in a position to prepare - for one of the alternatives is the stupidest way possible to make a decision.

    So the Tory party gets destroyed. So bloody what? It is busy destroying itself at the moment. At least this way it doesn't take the country with it.

    If people want to leave the EU in the future, fine. At least they can learn some lessons from the shambles of the last 3 years about what they need to think about before doing so.

    Welcome to my world..... ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    If Mrs May does manage to engineer a final at -the-death binary choice for parliament of her deal or no deal I wonder which way that would go?

    Can you imagine the suspense of that division if it comes to pass. Whole country watching, giant communal screens, the lot. Wow.

    Drama indeed. If we take people at their word, deal should win easily in such a scenario simply because far more claim to be determined to prevent no deal than deal which, despite its humongous defeat and the vast array of complaints, justified and otherwise, that people have with it, is at least palatable in parts to more of them, they are hardly going to be against the totality of it when, after all, the EU itself says it is a reasonable deal (notwithstanding that is evidence of its terribleness for some).

    Not quite sure how May would engineer it to be literally one of those two choices though.
    No. Very hard tô see how May could engineer this - MPs will suggest Remain or delay as amendments and Bercow will allow them to be put. And delay would probably win.
    I'm half convinced that really was May's only plan, that she was blindsided by the A50 case decision making revocation so much easier a prospect (previously it could not be certain to work even if we wanted to go down that route), and has simply never come up with another stratagem.
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s all about winning the blame game now.

    Don't worry German car manufacturers will come to the rescue.
    Nah, Mark Francois is going to head them off at the ports.
    Him and his dad.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited January 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Velma from Scooby Do is the EU deputy negotiator? Did we get Shaggy?
    Unfortunately, the Conservative Party decided to split up and look for clues. They still don't have one.
    But they are sure there is a scary old allotment owner around frightening people away.
    Yesterday when I mentioned to my son that the Sunday papers were referring to the possibility of martial law being used in the event of riots etc, he responded by saying "And these people think we'll be scared when they say that Corbyn will turn us into Venezuela."

    He has a point. The Tories are not just making it more likely that Corbyn will be PM but they are undermining any argument they might want to make that his brand of left-wing politics will be no good for Britain.

    (For the record, my son has turned away from Corbyn precisely because he is doing nothing to stop Brexit.)
    Mmmm. Certainly the "coalition of chaos" line won't play well next time
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Oh FFS! Just revoke Article 50 and get on with it. Explain that there is no agreement in any party or Parliament on how to leave, that a No Deal exit is too uncertain and harmful to the country and that no responsible politician would inflict that on the country, even if the price is the loss of their job. Explain that there is no shame in changing one's mind when the facts change, referendum vote notwithstanding and that if the voters don't like it they can make their views known at the next election.

    For good measure, say that referenda for such questions are bloody silly ideas in a Parliamentary democracy. If we want to have referenda like the Swiss do, they we need to do a whole load of other things the Swiss do as well to make them work. We don't and haven't here. And it's clear that trying to force through a country-changing decision through bullying, Parliamentary chicanery, in a panic, at the last-minute, when we haven't prepared - and are not in a position to prepare - for one of the alternatives is the stupidest way possible to make a decision.

    So the Tory party gets destroyed. So bloody what? It is busy destroying itself at the moment. At least this way it doesn't take the country with it.

    If people want to leave the EU in the future, fine. At least they can learn some lessons from the shambles of the last 3 years about what they need to think about before doing so.

    Welcome to my world..... ;)
    I have stocked up on Italian shoes. And food.

    Possibly not enough food. And then I will finally be slim - and elegantly shod. With nice Italian handbags. Which will come in handy when I have to handbag the morons in Westminster.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199

    The former CEO of coffee chain Starbucks has said he is "seriously considering" running for president. Howard Schultz, who stepped down as the firm's boss last year, says he is considering running as a centrist independent candidate in 2020.

    I am sure his companies record of aggressive tax efficiency won’t come up as an issue.

    Not has he got any chance of winning the rustbelt, at most he might pick up a few libertarian Republicans and centrist Democrats on the coasts
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is going swimmingly:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3vq4kkd53t/5News_BrexitMentalHealth_190118_w.pdf

    By 24:44 people think Brexit will make life worse, by 32:3 they think it has already made life worse. Not a single Remain voter from 2016 feels happy about Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mortimer said:

    Stubbornness leading to no deal?

    Weyand will get overruled.
    Velma from Scooby Do is the EU deputy negotiator? Did we get Shaggy?
    Unfortunately, the Conservative Party decided to split up and look for clues. They still don't have one.
    But they are sure there is a scary old allotment owner around frightening people away.
    Yesterday when I mentioned to my son that the Sunday papers were referring to the possibility of martial law being used in the event of riots etc, he responded by saying "And these people think we'll be scared when they say that Corbyn will turn us into Venezuela."

    He has a point. The Tories are not just making it more likely that Corbyn will be PM but they are undermining any argument they might want to make that his brand of left-wing politics will be no good for Britain.

    (For the record, my son has turned away from Corbyn precisely because he is doing nothing to stop Brexit.)
    No Deal Brexit and Corbyn are both two sides of the same coin, protest votes against globalisation, corporate capitalism and uncontrolled immigration
This discussion has been closed.