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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the whic

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,280
    Scott_P said:
    What use is switching on what passes for the brain of a bonehead who thinks he's Winston Churchill ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:
    More like Diamonique: superficially appealing, pushed by feather-headed loudmouths and essentially worthless.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Brexit has shown our entire political class - on both sides of the argument - to be unfit for purpose.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,280
    Talking of brains, this is a very impressive result for AI:
    https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

    Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
    With all due respect, David, the second option will not happen.
    In the event of No Deal the Eu has been made aware that neither Ireland nor the UK are prepared to instal infrastructure on the Ireland/NI border.

    Consequently their fallback position is to check goods coming into the EU from the UK and Ireland in the same way - both for tariffs and compliance with standards.

    The EU are not keen to publicise their position because it undermines their negotiating position of course, which is to weaponise the Irish border issue.
    Many Irish news sources for the above being considered including:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/prospect-of-border-checks-in-france-and-netherlands-downplayed-1.3767768


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/ireland-faces-isolation-with-britain-as-eu-border-mooted-899457.html
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Brexit has shown our entire political class - on both sides of the argument - to be unfit for purpose.
    Brexit has shown how fit for purpose the EU is. There is no way to deliver the same benefits without it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Did Brand not see Barnier's recent statement that the EU was [at last] looking at technical solutions to the Irish border issue.

    Also there are rumours in Ireland that the EUs solution in the event of No Deal is to have no checks on the Ireland/NI border but instead have them on the Ireland/EU border eg at Calais Rotterdam etc.
    With all due respect, David, the second option will not happen.
    In the event of No Deal the Eu has been made aware that neither Ireland nor the UK are prepared to instal infrastructure on the Ireland/NI border.

    Consequently their fallback position is to check goods coming into the EU from the UK and Ireland in the same way - both for tariffs and compliance with standards.

    The EU are not keen to publicise their position because it undermines their negotiating position of course, which is to weaponise the Irish border issue.
    Many Irish news sources for the above being considered including:

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/prospect-of-border-checks-in-france-and-netherlands-downplayed-1.3767768


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/ireland-faces-isolation-with-britain-as-eu-border-mooted-899457.html
    If you think that article suggests it is "being considered" you are clutching at straws.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Glenn, it's shown how one-sided Article 50, and how inept the Government is at negotiating.

    By your definition, Aron Ralston's dilemma proved how terrible his pen knife was, when the boulder provided him with a stable and certain situation.
  • Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Brexit has shown our entire political class - on both sides of the argument - to be unfit for purpose.

    Not sure if any classes have come out of it with any credit.

    Our media for one..

    https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1089868568701820928
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Talking of brains, this is a very impressive result for AI:
    https://deepmind.com/blog/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii/

    Google is throwing crazy amount of resources at DeepMinds. I was told by somebody who works there they have hired ~600 people in the past couple of years.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems like a bit of a non-issue, unless you think there is going to be no extradition treaty between the EU and UK in the future?
    But presumably like everything else it needs negotiating from scratch and won't just exist.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems like a bit of a non-issue, unless you think there is going to be no extradition treaty between the EU and UK in the future?
    But presumably like everything else it needs negotiating from scratch and won't just exist.
    Thankfully we are starting off in a position of rather good alignment on these issues.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    edited January 2019

    Mr. Glenn, it's shown how one-sided Article 50, and how inept the Government is at negotiating.

    The main thing Article 50 brings to the table is a cut-off point. The substance wouldn't have been any different without it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
    https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Thankfully we are starting off in a position of rather good alignment on these issues.

    We are totally aligned on almost everything right now, and still almost completely fucked...
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow

    What does that mean? Chose amendments that support the Maybot's deal? Or chose amendments that is give the UK the best options for weathering this self-inflicted storm.

    The two are not the same. "Fair" is a slippery word in politics.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    What compromise is this? Between them, a majority of MPs will settle only for no Brexit, or no Deal Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Brexit has shown our entire political class - on both sides of the argument - to be unfit for purpose.
    Brexit has shown how fit for purpose the EU is. There is no way to deliver the same benefits without it.
    That’s deranged. The EU certainly isn’t fit for purpose, and even most Remainers would probably concede that.

    Further, there are other ways to deliver a fair balance of benefits and obligations that would be more to the UK’s taste but both the EU doesn’t want to put those on the table.

    Unfortunately, our MPs probably wouldn’t understand them even if they did.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Scott_P said:
    Oddbins went bust long before Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    Compromise with who? There is no alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement.
    I stand by what i said the other week.

    The ERG will work this out in about eighteen months time and, frustrated by the failure of Brexit (with some perhaps secretly pleased), will deftly move immediately onto blaming someone else.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Glenn, disagree entirely. More time means less of a cliff-edge as there's greater capacity to line up replacement trade deals, prepare for a potential no deal etc, etc. The short time span is there to deliberately help the EU.

    Mr. Royale, it's a real shame an associate membership position just isn't credible. But there we are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    Compromise with who? There is no alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement.
    I stand by what i said the other week.

    The ERG will work this out in about eighteen months time and, frustrated by the failure of Brexit (with some perhaps secretly pleased), will deftly move immediately onto blaming someone else.
    At what point will their more moderate allies realise they should have campaigned for Cameron's deal?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Oddbins went bust long before Brexit.
    Bloody boxed wine drinkers ;-)

    Didn't they previously go bust 4-5 years ago?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    May does not know how to compromise. Her style is to take decisions in private with a coterie of advisers/sycophants and then spring them on everybody else when it's too late for opponents to do anything about it. This served her quite well as Home Secretary but it's hopeless for something as controversial and divisive as Brexit.
  • Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow

    What does that mean? Chose amendments that support the Maybot's deal? Or chose amendments that is give the UK the best options for weathering this self-inflicted storm.

    The two are not the same. "Fair" is a slippery word in politics.
    Choose amendments that have support on either side of the divide and allow MPs to determine their outcome when voting. It would be ludicrous if either of the Brady or Cooper amendments weren't chosen despite both having likely polar-opposite support it isn't for the Speaker to choose one over the other.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Seems like a bit of a non-issue, unless you think there is going to be no extradition treaty between the EU and UK in the future?
    It used to be a real problem back in the day. It was one of the things that kept The Troubles going for 30 years and it is one of the reasons that the GFA was a hit with so many people. The EU provided the reasoning that the North was British (Unionists happy) and the North was part of the RoI via Europe (Nationalists happy).

    Brexiteers are in danger of reigniting a conflict that many people thought was over.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    At what point will their more moderate allies realise they should have campaigned for Cameron's deal?

    BoZo realized it the morning of the vote...

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Mr. Glenn, disagree entirely. More time means less of a cliff-edge as there's greater capacity to line up replacement trade deals, prepare for a potential no deal etc, etc. The short time span is there to deliberately help the EU.

    No-one else could or would negotiate a trade deal with us until we had decided what our relationship with the EU would be. It doesn't matter how long you make the negotiations.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    Compromise with who? There is no alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement.
    I stand by what i said the other week.

    The ERG will work this out in about eighteen months time and, frustrated by the failure of Brexit (with some perhaps secretly pleased), will deftly move immediately onto blaming someone else.
    At what point will their more moderate allies realise they should have campaigned for Cameron's deal?
    They’d have killed for this WA a few years ago.

    Others would have found it too eurosceptic and criticised it from the other side.
  • Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    What compromise is this? Between them, a majority of MPs will settle only for no Brexit, or no Deal Brexit.
    A deal without a backstop would be a genuine compromise.

    Otherwise its no compromise its just abject surrender.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
    It’s a hard journey. I never had the undiluted confidence and certainty of absolute convictions to be an MP.

    If I’m even more honest, I didn’t have the money to do it nor the inclination to spend all my free time pounding pavements either.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Scott_P said:
    I suppose if she really wants to avoid making a choice there's always the option of England north of the Trent leaving the EU while the rest of the UK remains.
  • Bercow needs to be seen to be fair tomorrow

    What does that mean? Chose amendments that support the Maybot's deal? Or chose amendments that is give the UK the best options for weathering this self-inflicted storm.

    The two are not the same. "Fair" is a slippery word in politics.
    Not really - needs to be seen to be a honest broker
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Piers Morgan - redeeming features?

    I will give it my best shot and revert at some point later in the week.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Scott_P said:
    Technological solutions? When the Government can't even make its settled status app work on iPhones? Give me strength.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    A deal without a backstop would be a genuine compromise.

    It wouldn't be a deal, it would be a unicorn.
  • Jonathan said:

    When will May get it that is she that has to compromise? Stop the chicanery,spin and tactics to force the deal and start work on a genuine plan B.

    Compromise with who? There is no alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement.
    I stand by what i said the other week.

    The ERG will work this out in about eighteen months time and, frustrated by the failure of Brexit (with some perhaps secretly pleased), will deftly move immediately onto blaming someone else.
    At what point will their more moderate allies realise they should have campaigned for Cameron's deal?
    They’d have killed for this WA a few years ago.

    Others would have found it too eurosceptic and criticised it from the other side.
    Including the backstop? Requiring us to stay forever aligned to both Single Market regulations and EU customs unless or until the EU for some bizarre reason chooses to release us from that commitment?

    I voted for us to be able to make our own laws and sign our own trade deals not be trapped forever in the EU's customs union. May as well stay in the EU if we're going to stay aligned to EU laws, regulations and customs. And if we stay in we can choose to leave again whenever we want with 2 years notice, there's no exit from the backstop.
  • Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
    https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

    Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

    In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.
  • Scott_P said:

    A deal without a backstop would be a genuine compromise.

    It wouldn't be a deal, it would be a unicorn.
    It would be a deal.

    A unicorn is thinking that once we're in the backstop the EU need ever release us from it unless we give away everything they want.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:
    Oddbins went bust long before Brexit.
    I thought they went years ago during the Great Recession.

    Majestic Wines, by contrast, are doing rather well.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited January 2019
    Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

    May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2019

    It goes without saying that these people do not know what they are talking about.

    https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1089879657871278082

    Perhaps Tesco, Aldi and Morrisons have signed up all the other no-EU suppliers by being smart business people.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
    https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

    Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

    In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.
    If the EU is a German superstate, why can't more of us speak German?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It would be a deal.

    Without the backstop there is no deal.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
    It’s a hard journey. I never had the undiluted confidence and certainty of absolute convictions to be an MP.

    If I’m even more honest, I didn’t have the money to do it nor the inclination to spend all my free time pounding pavements either.
    I know what you mean - and you have new priorities all of a sudden ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Scott_P said:

    A deal without a backstop would be a genuine compromise.

    It wouldn't be a deal, it would be a unicorn.
    It would be a deal.

    A unicorn is thinking that once we're in the backstop the EU need ever release us from it unless we give away everything they want.
    You've got the sequence back to front. The backstop doesn't give us everything we need, so we will concede (from your perspective) on the future relationship before it comes into effect to avoid a cliff edge for services, etc.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Kinabalu, a quote from The Adventures of Sir Edric*:
    “Neptunia, a foul witch, an appallingly ugly creature and a worker of the darkest magics. She’s also my sister-in-law. Still, she’s better than that rotten hag Esmerelda.”

    “But she’s your wife!” Colin protested. “Surely Esmerelda must have some virtues?”

    Sir Edric considered the matter for a moment. “Mortality.”


    *Available from all good retailers.
  • Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
  • Scott_P said:

    It would be a deal.

    Without the backstop there is no deal.
    Fine.

    But wait, the Irish want a deal. But with a backstop there's no deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, it's looking neck and neck. Theresa May's party management skills are dreadful and the Conservative party looks less like a single body and more like a collection of rubble loosely held together on an eccentric orbit, about to be put under intense gravitational pressure.

    One way or another, one group is going to be stupendously hacked off. The question is whether they move before or after Brexit, if Brexit occurs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    And when should she schedule the border poll?

    image
  • Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    There will be no hard border on the Ireland/NI border because the EU knows it can not impose it. It will be between Ireland and the Rest of the EU at Calais, Rotterdam etc.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

    May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.

    You seem to have missed the Elephant In The Room - inaction leads to No Deal and you get your precious Brexit.
  • Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
    https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

    Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

    In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.
    If the EU is a German superstate, why can't more of us speak German?
    We've escaped assimilation into the Germanosphere by the skin of our teeth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Dunno - which is worse? A convicted felon remaining as an MP, or Nigel bloody Farage becoming an MP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    There will be no hard border on the Ireland/NI border because the EU knows it can not impose it. It will be between Ireland and the Rest of the EU at Calais, Rotterdam etc.
    If a hard border went up tomorrow, on which side would there be the bigger security challenge?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019

    Dunno - which is worse? A convicted felon remaining as an MP, or Nigel bloody Farage becoming an MP.
    Nigel won't win, he never wins when it comes to trying to become an MP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Looks like there is documentary on Brexit tonight.

    Just in case anyone hasn't had enough of this already.
  • Will the Court take note that over 12 months makes her unemployed as an MP?
  • Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    You are one side of an argument that is rapidly going pear shaped. TM will not back a no deal and neither will the HOC

    ERG are providing her with the cover to move to a more collegiate agreement across the HOC
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tezza picks the headbangers. Again...

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1089930545574875140
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Dunno - which is worse? A convicted felon remaining as an MP, or Nigel bloody Farage becoming an MP.
    Nigel won't win, he never wins when it comes to trying to become an MP.
    I hope he does win. The HoC deserves him.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Will the Court take note that over 12 months makes her unemployed as an MP?
    I think so; her failure to resign so far and lack of contrition (to put it mildly) so far are potentially aggravating factors.
  • Dunno - which is worse? A convicted felon remaining as an MP, or Nigel bloody Farage becoming an MP.
    Nigel won't win, he never wins when it comes to trying to become an MP.
    I hope he does win. The HoC deserves him.
    We want better MPs.....there is enough shit ones.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Dunno - which is worse? A convicted felon remaining as an MP, or Nigel bloody Farage becoming an MP.
    If your implication is that Nigel Farage is an unconvicted felon, that's a bit premature. We've yet to see what the Mueller inquiry turns up about him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019

    Will the Court take note that over 12 months makes her unemployed as an MP?
    I think so; her failure to resign so far and lack of contrition (to put it mildly) so far are potentially aggravating factors.
    I hope they through the book at her as she is showing a total lack of remorse. Two friggin trials, so much wasted time and money, over her bullshit mystery Russian story.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
  • Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    There will be no hard border on the Ireland/NI border because the EU knows it can not impose it. It will be between Ireland and the Rest of the EU at Calais, Rotterdam etc.
    So no need for a backstop then. But would be in UK and Irelands mutual interest to drop the bullshit and crack on with getting a mutually respectful and beneficial deal. And maybe a transition minus backstop that can lift that border.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Mr. Kinabalu, a quote from The Adventures of Sir Edric*:
    “Neptunia, a foul witch, an appallingly ugly creature and a worker of the darkest magics. She’s also my sister-in-law. Still, she’s better than that rotten hag Esmerelda.”

    “But she’s your wife!” Colin protested. “Surely Esmerelda must have some virtues?”

    Sir Edric considered the matter for a moment. “Mortality.”


    *Available from all good retailers.

    LOL!
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445

    Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

    May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.

    You seem to have missed the Elephant In The Room - inaction leads to No Deal and you get your precious Brexit.
    Not really, if you read and understood my comment. If MPs are successful in grabbing control of the parliamentary agenda, which I referred to up front, there won’t be a Brexit.
  • Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    And when should she schedule the border poll?

    image
    Same as the SNP and Tory polls. When a majority in an election goes to those backing a border poll in their manifesto.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    And when should she schedule the border poll?

    image
    I could be wrong but I suspect that nationalist vote for reunification is actually very soft. There's way too much swinging for the various options there.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Will the Court take note that over 12 months makes her unemployed as an MP?
    I think so; her failure to resign so far and lack of contrition (to put it mildly) so far are potentially aggravating factors.
    I hope they through the book at her as she is showing a total lack of remorse. Two friggin trials, so much wasted time and money, over her bullshit mystery Russian story.
    To be fair, the fact that it took two trials is hardly her fault.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited January 2019

    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    Nope - she's trying to keep the Tory party together by destroying the Country instead (see Williamglenn's border poll below).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
    It’s a hard journey. I never had the undiluted confidence and certainty of absolute convictions to be an MP.

    If I’m even more honest, I didn’t have the money to do it nor the inclination to spend all my free time pounding pavements either.
    I know what you mean - and you have new priorities all of a sudden ;)
    Indeed I do! The great thing about it is that I don't care about anything else.
  • Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501

    Mr. Divvie, Piers Morgan is a moron. However, Greer may be 'courteous' but he's also the author of this, as you may've seen:
    https://twitter.com/Ross_Greer/status/1088871720382091264

    Churchill was certainly a white supremacist by today's lights. Mass murder, meh, however he was certainly careless with the lives of brown people in his beloved empire.

    In any case if I felt strongly about it I'd marshal a decent rebuttal rather than that 'you'd be speaking German' pish, and a better insult than 'ginger turd'. Hard to believe that use of words & language is actually the basis of Morgan's career.
    If the EU is a German superstate, why can't more of us speak German?
    We've escaped assimilation into the Germanosphere by the skin of our teeth.
    We do speak a sort of German.
  • Will the Court take note that over 12 months makes her unemployed as an MP?
    I think so; her failure to resign so far and lack of contrition (to put it mildly) so far are potentially aggravating factors.
    I hope they through the book at her as she is showing a total lack of remorse. Two friggin trials, so much wasted time and money, over her bullshit mystery Russian story.
    To be fair, the fact that it took two trials is hardly her fault.
    I wasn't blaming her for that, more just an expression of frustration.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
    Which is why I think ultimately there will probably be a new referendum. It will be borne out of politicians' failure to agree and sold as such.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

    May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.

    You seem to have missed the Elephant In The Room - inaction leads to No Deal and you get your precious Brexit.
    Not really, if you read and understood my comment. If MPs are successful in grabbing control of the parliamentary agenda, which I referred to up front, there won’t be a Brexit.
    I took the implication of your post to be that nothing will happen. As you say, MPs are deadlocked and the Maybot's programming does not allow her to make decisions and the Tories have made her invulnerable from deselection until the end of 2019.

    No Deal looks nailed on (as they say around this parish)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732

    Scott_P said:
    FFS that's pathetic. Truly the worst PM of my lifetime.

    The choice is simple, the UK voted to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). The manifesto was a commitment to leave (including Single Market and Customs Union). She pledged no deal was better than a bad deal.

    Do the one thing that might save her deal, commit to one simple change and commit to no deal if that change is refused (thus meaning that the Irish get the hard border immediately and not in many years time if there's a time-limited or no backstop).
    And when should she schedule the border poll?

    image
    Same as the SNP and Tory polls. When a majority in an election goes to those backing a border poll in their manifesto.
    It doesn't work that way. Under the Good Friday Agreement the NI Secretary is obliged to call a border poll if they believe a majority for unification is likely.

    The unionist majority in Stormont has already gone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Meeks, I did think we'd end up with another referendum, but I'm not so sure now. The mechanics might yet work that way but MPs have to, eventually, actually back it. Plus Corbyn remains anti-EU.

    Whoever compared his 'pro-EU' stance to Zeno's Paradox was spot on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,280

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
    It’s a hard journey. I never had the undiluted confidence and certainty of absolute convictions to be an MP.

    If I’m even more honest, I didn’t have the money to do it nor the inclination to spend all my free time pounding pavements either.
    I know what you mean - and you have new priorities all of a sudden ;)
    Indeed I do! The great thing about it is that I don't care about anything else.
    Until the disposable nappy shortage on the 1st April...

    (Actually, most of them are manufactured here.)
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
    Which is why I think ultimately there will probably be a new referendum. It will be borne out of politicians' failure to agree and sold as such.
    I'm hoping for a second referendum.

    It'll be hysterical in lots of ways. First of all it will be funny seeing the pyrotechnics from the Francois-types who realise they've pissed their Brexit up against the wall. Then it will be mega-funny when Leave wins by a bigger margin and Adonis, Femi and co have a mental breakdown.

    Politics as pure bloodsport.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Fenster, if we did have another, I might just decide to stay up for the results...
  • Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
    Which is why I think ultimately there will probably be a new referendum. It will be borne out of politicians' failure to agree and sold as such.
    Like so much it is a torturous path to get to it and so divisive but you could be right

    And JRM just now rejects Graham Brady's amendment
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited January 2019
    Fenster said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
    Which is why I think ultimately there will probably be a new referendum. It will be borne out of politicians' failure to agree and sold as such.
    I'm hoping for a second referendum.

    It'll be hysterical in lots of ways. First of all it will be funny seeing the pyrotechnics from the Francois-types who realise they've pissed their Brexit up against the wall. Then it will be mega-funny when Leave wins by a bigger margin and Adonis, Femi and co have a mental breakdown.

    Politics as pure bloodsport.
    Voting Leave a second time does not unscramble the current Parliamentary impasse.

    If there were a second referendum if would need to be between Brexit options.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
    Which is why I think ultimately there will probably be a new referendum. It will be borne out of politicians' failure to agree and sold as such.
    Could be and that won't necessarily be a foregone conclusion.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Scott_P said:
    She's a total numpty. She has to reach a cross-party deal to get something to pass.
    But there is no cross party census
    There are enough May loyalists, Tory wets and Labour respecters of the referendum result to get a deal through.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Nigelb said:

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
    It’s a hard journey. I never had the undiluted confidence and certainty of absolute convictions to be an MP.

    If I’m even more honest, I didn’t have the money to do it nor the inclination to spend all my free time pounding pavements either.
    I know what you mean - and you have new priorities all of a sudden ;)
    Indeed I do! The great thing about it is that I don't care about anything else.
    Until the disposable nappy shortage on the 1st April...

    (Actually, most of them are manufactured here.)
    Ah, so the EU will be in the shit if there's No Deal.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    Nigelb said:

    Brexit has revealed like never before how extraordinarily dense most MPs are. They are just people who are good at sitting in endless meetings without falling asleep.

    I used to respect MPs for their ability to get selected, make speeches, debate, work all hours God sends and still be friendly and interesting. I assumed a level of sophisticated thinking underlay a clear philosophy with evidence based policy worked out by good and clear analysis.

    I was naive. Many are just over confident energetic bullshiters.
    Welcome to the light. Leaving the Dark Side is a good thing :D
    It’s a hard journey. I never had the undiluted confidence and certainty of absolute convictions to be an MP.

    If I’m even more honest, I didn’t have the money to do it nor the inclination to spend all my free time pounding pavements either.
    I know what you mean - and you have new priorities all of a sudden ;)
    Indeed I do! The great thing about it is that I don't care about anything else.
    Until the disposable nappy shortage on the 1st April...

    (Actually, most of them are manufactured here.)
    And they don't really rely on JIT delivery.

    Were they not available there are plenty of substitutes, albeit not as convenient.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Those of us who wish the U.K. to leave the EU and voted accordingly look likely to be disappointed. Too many MPs are content to be paid for simply doing as Brussels tells them and are currently seeking to seize hold of parliamentary business, for which they have no electoral mandate, to stick two fingers up to the electorate. The second is that Brexit has shown the entire British political class and civil service to be unfit for the task of governing Britain. For Leave, it means they have virtually no MPs in parliament capable of articulating what Brexit should look like. Remain supporting MPs don’t have that problem; Brussels simply tells them what to do.

    May is not going to resign so it’s hard to see her leaving until she is forced out by a vote of no confidence. The Tories will support her against Corbyn so she’s safe for about another year - another year in which absolutely nothing gets done but vast quantities of hot air get expended.

    You seem to have missed the Elephant In The Room - inaction leads to No Deal and you get your precious Brexit.
    Not really, if you read and understood my comment. If MPs are successful in grabbing control of the parliamentary agenda, which I referred to up front, there won’t be a Brexit.
    I took the implication of your post to be that nothing will happen. As you say, MPs are deadlocked and the Maybot's programming does not allow her to make decisions and the Tories have made her invulnerable from deselection until the end of 2019.

    No Deal looks nailed on (as they say around this parish)
    I'm betting on No Deal as much as personal insurance as for a political bet.

    At 6/1 on Betfair it's obvious value.
This discussion has been closed.