politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now what?
Comments
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No, he wanted to be the centre of attention and grandstand by scoring some cheap points, when the vote was already won.Nigelb said:
Hardly.IanB2 said:
Classic Gove - it was a very good student union speech - but did fail utterly to take into account the government and country's strategic position.Scott_P said:
It was in the context of a confidence debate, in which both sides were slinging crap at each other. Not edifying in the least, but not exactly surprising, either.
Sure, he's essentially defending the indefensible - but equally, Corbyn proponents are in a position of proposing the indefensible.0 -
I bet you are a great parent:IanB2 said:
Dream on. She is pandering to the nutters behind her, not exercising any leverage over the EU.MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
"Go to bed!"
"No."
"OK....I'm taking go to bed off the table...."0 -
What makes you think Corbyn doesn’t want No Deal?Jonathan said:Jezza clearly made a mistake. He should have met her and said she refused to rule out no deal and that he was very concerned and wanted a more constructive approach. He doubts further talks would be useful until she updates her approach to the new reality.
To reject talks at that point was a massive own goal. He made her look reasonable. Quite an achievement. He now needs to swallow pride and talk.0 -
Most of us should be able to work out what the play is here..MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Corbyn hopes (and he might be right) that following No Deal the Tories would split and soak up all the opprobrium like a sponge. He could then win a VoNC in April-June, and would win the ensuing GE and implement a full, pure socialist programme in the UK. His dream for decades.
And, that is all in prospect for him *this year* if he ducks and dodges, and runs out the clock.0 -
0
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We once again have to return to the old question of 'a' customs union vs 'the' Customs Union.notme2 said:
A CU takes away some of the advantages of been an independent state outside of the EU. Of course it comes with its own advantages, but not an independent trade policy.BudG said:Why won't Tories accept a Customs Union, if it seems the way out of this impasse and allows a deal to leave the EU to be passed?
Is there any reason why they could not include withdrawal from that Customs Union, in a future GE manifesto and, if elected, enact that without the need for any future referendum on it?
As it stands currently we cannot remain in 'the' Customs Union if we are not a member of the EU. Unfortunately being in 'a' customs union like Turkey is an extremely bad position to be in as far as external trade goes.0 -
Parental advice, now? Is there no beginning to Leavers' talents?MarqueeMark said:
I bet you are a great parent:IanB2 said:
Dream on. She is pandering to the nutters behind her, not exercising any leverage over the EU.MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
"Go to bed!"
"No."
"OK....I'm taking go to bed off the table...."0 -
Scott_P said:
Peston gets it wrong again. Backbench Labour MPs might not want to meet Michael Gove for many reasons, but because he called out Corbyn’s diabolical record isn’t one of them.0 -
It appears he's losing it completely.TOPPING said:
Parental advice, now? Is there no beginning to Leavers' talents?MarqueeMark said:
I bet you are a great parent:IanB2 said:
Dream on. She is pandering to the nutters behind her, not exercising any leverage over the EU.MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
"Go to bed!"
"No."
"OK....I'm taking go to bed off the table...."
Tony Blair nailed that no deal argument completely in his interview this morning.0 -
That is very interesting.DavidL said:I very much agree with those downthread who state that the effects of deal, no deal and remain are all massively overstated. My principal concern with no deal is not any short term disruption, which I think will be absolutely minimal, but our longer term relationship with the EU. We want, in employment terms, to be good leavers not bad leavers. Bad leavers usually lose rights and opportunities that good leavers get to keep.
May's deal only deals with goods. This is quite bizarre for an economy which is 80% services but that is where we are. Once we leave we will need to negotiate service access which is a question of regulatory equivalence. There are work arounds, such as the Dublin plates again referred to down thread but regulatory equivalence for services is the absolute key of the transitional period. I just don't see us getting that if we do not have an agreed deal with the EU.
My further and increasing concern is that this incompetent government has not got the statutory framework in place for either deal or no deal. Given we have had 2 years this is pretty inexcusable. I can see the argument that we want to know what the deal was before the legislation was finalised but it would hardly be the first time we had legislation passed that didn't come into force.
To take a simple example I am going to spend most of today considering whether I can sequestrate an EU national with assets in Scotland on the back of Dutch decrees when he is now allegedly resident elsewhere in the EU. At the moment we have the Brussels regulation and various regulations concerning insolvency which create a largely common rule book. What would be the position if we don't get this done by 30th March? The legislation in place provides that EU law effectively becomes our law on departure but that does not come close to addressing the problem because these laws are not domestic, they have international application. For them to work we not only need to provide that the Brussels regulation applies here but that it continues to apply to us from an EU perspective. Since the mutual enforcement of decrees is built on the idea that we are a MS I am really not sure how that is going to work unless the EU agrees it does which so far they haven't. Hopefully I will have a slightly better idea by 5.00pm!
Let us know how you get on.
(I think services account for around 25% of our exports, so the 80% figure you cite is a little misleading as the bulk of it is domestic. Nonetheless, the point is well made.)
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It makes it much harder. Justifying talks with Gove to your CLP would be tricky at the best of times. After his speech yesterday it would be nigh on impossible. Both frontbenches are playing politics. Neither is serious about finding a solution. That’s why No Deal is nailed on.Casino_Royale said:Scott_P said:
Peston gets it wrong again. Backbench Labour MPs might not want to meet Michael Gove for many reasons, but because he called out Corbyn’s diabolical record isn’t one of them.
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Hitachi have suspended work on Wylfa Newydd nuclear power station...0
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Doesn’t that depend on who you trade with and the win/lose balance of being in a CU? Would we gain more than we lose by not being in one?Richard_Tyndall said:
We once again have to return to the old question of 'a' customs union vs 'the' Customs Union.notme2 said:
A CU takes away some of the advantages of been an independent state outside of the EU. Of course it comes with its own advantages, but not an independent trade policy.BudG said:Why won't Tories accept a Customs Union, if it seems the way out of this impasse and allows a deal to leave the EU to be passed?
Is there any reason why they could not include withdrawal from that Customs Union, in a future GE manifesto and, if elected, enact that without the need for any future referendum on it?
As it stands currently we cannot remain in 'the' Customs Union if we are not a member of the EU. Unfortunately being in 'a' customs union like Turkey is an extremely bad position to be in as far as external trade goes.
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Corbyn would have to be even stupider than he is actually is to help May with her fucking shit deal.Casino_Royale said:
Most of us should be able to work out what the play is here..MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Corbyn hopes (and he might be right) that following No Deal the Tories would split and soak up all the opprobrium like a sponge. He could then win a VoNC in April-June, and would win the ensuing GE and implement a full, pure socialist programme in the UK. His dream for decades.
And, that is all in prospect for him *this year* if he ducks and dodges, and runs out the clock.0 -
I suspect it's the last tightrope Corbyn can walk between what he wants and what his party wants.MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
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PB Tories obsessing about one poll again?Jonathan said:
Careful. You could have said that last time.MarqueeMark said:
About that General Election you so desperately want, Mr Corbyn.....AndyJS said:
ElectoralCalculus gives Con 329, Lab 238, LD 20, SNP 41.MarqueeMark said:
That must deliver some chunky Tory gains off Labour? (Especially as UKIP (what % are they on?) won't have more than a handful of candidates and the Tory vote will get more of their second preferences than Labour....)AndyJS said:"Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 39 (-2)
LAB: 34 (-1)
LDM: 11 (=)
Via @YouGov, 11-12 Jan,
Changes w/ 6-7 Jan."
No comments yesterday on the poll that had Labour two points clear.
When will they ever learn?!0 -
I'm wondering if Blair might be on the road to being an acceptable voice again to an increasing number of the electorate.
The Iraq War began in 2003 - over 15 years ago. Memories fade and a lot of other political stuff has happened since then. It's hard to remember the Pre-Brexit era. The more the current parliament disgraces itself in the eyes of the public over Brexit, then the more possible it becomes for former sidelined statesmen to have an influence. It's pitiful how bereft of talent are the current crop of MPs.0 -
I know the Tories are shameless enough to blame everyone else for their endless failures every single time, but surely they can't think this risible ruse to launch sub-tabloid level tirades against their opponents all day and then complain when they are reticent to talk (why now? she could have been talking 18 months ago) in order to try and push the responsibility on to Labour is really going to wash with anyone except the most devoted of true believers?
(though it must be noted that the media, including sadly the BBC are as always willing co-conspirators in whatever the increasingly desperate and embarrassing Tory line du jour is)0 -
Ukip not far off the lib dems by that poll.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"0 -
Some elements are still too concerned about optics.IanB2 said:
Dream on. She is pandering to the nutters behind her, not exercising any leverage over the EU.MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
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That would be great, except that neither Norway nor Canada are acceptable to the EU for the UK.Nemtynakht said:
Listening to Blair this morning I did think tha May could offer a further referendum between Norway option and Canada option. This would be a People’s vote therefore spiking the argument that people won’t get a say but would respect the vote.Scott_P said:0 -
I was thinking that this morning. I have had little time for Blair since power and his relationship with Bush went to his head. Hearing his interview this morning it occurred to me that it was really the first time I had been willing to give him a hearing.stjohn said:I'm wondering if Blair might be on the road to being an acceptable voice again to an increasing number of the electorate.
The Iraq War began in 2003 - over 15 years ago. Memories fade and a lot of other political stuff has happened since then. It's hard to remember the Pre-Brexit era. The more the current parliament disgraces itself in the eyes of the public over Brexit, then the more possible it becomes for former statesmen to have an influence. It's pitiful how bereft of talent are the current crop of MPs.0 -
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.0 -
The world aint ending on 29th March.
And neither will the opportunity to make deals.
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That's the point. He doesn't want to help Theresa with her "fucking shit deal". He wants No Deal, the economic fallout, widespread anger, and take power off the back of it.Dura_Ace said:
Corbyn would have to be even stupider than he is actually is to help May with her fucking shit deal.Casino_Royale said:
Most of us should be able to work out what the play is here..MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Corbyn hopes (and he might be right) that following No Deal the Tories would split and soak up all the opprobrium like a sponge. He could then win a VoNC in April-June, and would win the ensuing GE and implement a full, pure socialist programme in the UK. His dream for decades.
And, that is all in prospect for him *this year* if he ducks and dodges, and runs out the clock.0 -
A customs union prevents you from making your own trade deals. There are only about 100 people in Britain who think making non-EU trade deals are going to work out better than piggy-backing off EU ones, but 50 of them are Conservative MPs. For them it's the whole point of Brexit.BudG said:Why won't Tories accept a Customs Union, if it seems the way out of this impasse and allows a deal to leave the EU to be passed?
Is there any reason why they could not include withdrawal from that Customs Union, in a future GE manifesto and, if elected, enact that without the need for any future referendum on it?
They're probably also aware that they only managed to get the voters behind their project with the help of the immigration angle, so it's going to be hard to get support for getting out of the customs union if they don't stay out now.0 -
Even under that poll, that 7% for UKIP is going somewhere..... You think to Corbyn?NickPalmer said:
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.0 -
Because Conservative leavers saw it as important to get away from?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Ref the excruciating interview with Rebecca Long-Bailey, who had no clue what a CU was or how it worked, but knew with absolute certainty that Labour were in favour of it.
If Mrs May offerered ‘a’ CU tomorrow, Corbyn would find some reason to be opposed to it.0 -
Maybe, utilising his experience in these matters, Tony Blair could nominate himself as House of Commons Peace Envoy?0
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Welcome here. Your contribution is....noted.DrCanard said:I know the Tories are shameless enough to blame everyone else for their endless failures every single time, but surely they can't think this risible ruse to launch sub-tabloid level tirades against their opponents all day and then complain when they are reticent to talk (why now? she could have been talking 18 months ago) in order to try and push the responsibility on to Labour is really going to wash with anyone except the most devoted of true believers?
(though it must be noted that the media, including sadly the BBC are as always willing co-conspirators in whatever the increasingly desperate and embarrassing Tory line du jour is)0 -
Lol - not the "UKIP are really Tories" line again.MarqueeMark said:
Even under that poll, that 7% for UKIP is going somewhere..... You think to Corbyn?NickPalmer said:
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.
Take a look at the run of local byelection results - many have previously strong UKIP showings but with no UKIP candidate this time.0 -
could they afford him ?TOPPING said:Maybe, utilising his experience in these matters, Tony Blair could nominate himself as House of Commons Peace Envoy?
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Well, he's certainly got a remarkable record in suckering Tories into supporting stuff.TOPPING said:Maybe, utilising his experience in these matters, Tony Blair could nominate himself as House of Commons Peace Envoy?
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....and so all that effort by civil servants to trash the competing Tidal Barrages was for naught....eek said:Hitachi have suspended work on Wylfa Newydd nuclear power station...
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Some of it will.MarqueeMark said:
Even under that poll, that 7% for UKIP is going somewhere..... You think to Corbyn?NickPalmer said:
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.0 -
A curiosity about ComRes's poll is that if you compare with the last ComRes poll (and because of house effects this is often a good idea), you find exactly zero change since the end of November, except that the LibDems are 1% down.
Not much happening, eh?0 -
To be fair to Mr Gove, the subject of yesterday’s debate wasn’t Brexit - it was Mr Corbyn’s motion to replace the current government for one led by himself.SouthamObserver said:
It makes it much harder. Justifying talks with Gove to your CLP would be tricky at the best of times. After his speech yesterday it would be nigh on impossible. Both frontbenches are playing politics. Neither is serious about finding a solution. That’s why No Deal is nailed on.Casino_Royale said:Scott_P said:
Peston gets it wrong again. Backbench Labour MPs might not want to meet Michael Gove for many reasons, but because he called out Corbyn’s diabolical record isn’t one of them.0 -
Corbo won't give a fuck about the polls. He hunted May down from 20 points behind in 2017 and he'll believe he can do it again.NickPalmer said:
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.
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It’s amazing so many intelligent people are unable to work this out.bookseller said:
That's the point. He doesn't want to help Theresa with her "fucking shit deal". He wants No Deal, the economic fallout, widespread anger, and take power off the back of it.Dura_Ace said:
Corbyn would have to be even stupider than he is actually is to help May with her fucking shit deal.Casino_Royale said:
Most of us should be able to work out what the play is here..MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Corbyn hopes (and he might be right) that following No Deal the Tories would split and soak up all the opprobrium like a sponge. He could then win a VoNC in April-June, and would win the ensuing GE and implement a full, pure socialist programme in the UK. His dream for decades.
And, that is all in prospect for him *this year* if he ducks and dodges, and runs out the clock.
The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.0 -
Corbyn messed up by rejecting talks outright. May is showing no signs that her offer of talks was genuine, she is sticking to all her red lines. So he should have gone and could have walked away after the talks broke down blaming her red lines as stubbornness. Be the bigger man etc. Instead he has managed to take the heat off of her and draw attention to his own intransigence over Brexit policy.0
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Everyone is mimicking that emoji with their hands on their faces in abject terror.NickPalmer said:A curiosity about ComRes's poll is that if you compare with the last ComRes poll (and because of house effects this is often a good idea), you find exactly zero change since the end of November, except that the LibDems are 1% down.
Not much happening, eh?0 -
SouthamObserver said:
It makes it much harder. Justifying talks with Gove to your CLP would be tricky at the best of times. After his speech yesterday it would be nigh on impossible. Both frontbenches are playing politics. Neither is serious about finding a solution. That’s why No Deal is nailed on.Casino_Royale said:Scott_P said:
Peston gets it wrong again. Backbench Labour MPs might not want to meet Michael Gove for many reasons, but because he called out Corbyn’s diabolical record isn’t one of them.
If you re-read my post, you’ll see I said backbenches not frontbenches.
I’d have thoughts the likes of Chuka Ummna would be first out of the blocks on this.0 -
Surely that is what is happening now, but the other way round. Corbyn has suggested CU and Theresa May has found some reason to be opposed to it.Sandpit said:
Because Conservative leavers saw it as important to get away from?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Ref the excruciating interview with Rebecca Long-Bailey, who had no clue what a CU was or how it worked, but knew with absolute certainty that Labour were in favour of it.
If Mrs May offerered ‘a’ CU tomorrow, Corbyn would find some reason to be opposed to it.0 -
Corbyn wants a CU so much he pulled his own amendment to get one
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I am making notes, Herr Doktor, and your name vill go on the list; and when we win the Brexit war you vill be brought to account.MarqueeMark said:
Welcome here. Your contribution is....noted.DrCanard said:I know the Tories are shameless enough to blame everyone else for their endless failures every single time, but surely they can't think this risible ruse to launch sub-tabloid level tirades against their opponents all day and then complain when they are reticent to talk (why now? she could have been talking 18 months ago) in order to try and push the responsibility on to Labour is really going to wash with anyone except the most devoted of true believers?
(though it must be noted that the media, including sadly the BBC are as always willing co-conspirators in whatever the increasingly desperate and embarrassing Tory line du jour is)0 -
The backstop is a de facto CU anyway.............................0
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Of course. But his party in parliament (and beyond) mostly takes a more principled view (many of them of course not buying into his destination in the first place).Casino_Royale said:
It’s amazing so many intelligent people are unable to work this out.bookseller said:
That's the point. He doesn't want to help Theresa with her "fucking shit deal". He wants No Deal, the economic fallout, widespread anger, and take power off the back of it.Dura_Ace said:
Corbyn would have to be even stupider than he is actually is to help May with her fucking shit deal.Casino_Royale said:
Most of us should be able to work out what the play is here..MarqueeMark said:
No Deal still has leverage against the EU. Much as (most of us) don't really want it, we know they don't either. You don't give that up, just to have Magic Grandpa pop round for tea.not_on_fire said:
Can anyone explain why No-Deal Brexit is the Tories’ ditch?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Corbyn hopes (and he might be right) that following No Deal the Tories would split and soak up all the opprobrium like a sponge. He could then win a VoNC in April-June, and would win the ensuing GE and implement a full, pure socialist programme in the UK. His dream for decades.
And, that is all in prospect for him *this year* if he ducks and dodges, and runs out the clock.
The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one.0 -
a really stupid decision to stop SwanseaMarqueeMark said:
....and so all that effort by civil servants to trash the competing Tidal Barrages was for naught....eek said:Hitachi have suspended work on Wylfa Newydd nuclear power station...
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But the bulk of it not. My assessment would be if they are on 7%, UKIP might poll 1.5% of that, 3% Tories, 1% Labour, 1.5% won't vote. Which brings Labour down to level pegging.kle4 said:
Some of it will.MarqueeMark said:
Even under that poll, that 7% for UKIP is going somewhere..... You think to Corbyn?NickPalmer said:
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.0 -
May's biggest problem is that she doesn't have the political deftness to elide her position, and is heavily boxed in by the various factions behind her in any case.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely that is what is happening now, but the other way round. Corbyn has suggested CU and Theresa May has found some reason to be opposed to it.Sandpit said:
Because Conservative leavers saw it as important to get away from?MarqueeMark said:Can anyone explain to me why Customs Union is the ditch Labour wants to die in? (Apart, obviously, from having to find SOMETHING to place themselves from May's Deal being acceptable.)
Ref the excruciating interview with Rebecca Long-Bailey, who had no clue what a CU was or how it worked, but knew with absolute certainty that Labour were in favour of it.
If Mrs May offerered ‘a’ CU tomorrow, Corbyn would find some reason to be opposed to it.0 -
The polling is amazingly constant, albeit as you say with a considerable house effect between the different pollsters.NickPalmer said:A curiosity about ComRes's poll is that if you compare with the last ComRes poll (and because of house effects this is often a good idea), you find exactly zero change since the end of November, except that the LibDems are 1% down.
Not much happening, eh?0 -
More than that wont vote. And the extent to which there are Tory switchers depends heavily on the strength of the betrayal narrative. There are plenty of kippers on ConHome already swearing they will never vote Tory again.MarqueeMark said:
But the bulk of it not. My assessment would be if they are on 7%, UKIP might poll 1.5% of that, 3% Tories, 1% Labour, 1.5% won't vote. Which brings Labour down to level pegging.kle4 said:
Some of it will.MarqueeMark said:
Even under that poll, that 7% for UKIP is going somewhere..... You think to Corbyn?NickPalmer said:
As Marquee Mark was saying a couple of hours ago, the polls show that Corbyn's in trouble and the Conservatives would get chunky gains if there was an election.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
11h11 hours ago
UK, ComRes poll:
LAB-S&D: 39%
CON-ECR: 37%
LDEM-ALDE: 8% (-1)
UKIP-EFDD: 7% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 0%
+/- vs. 30/11/18 – 02/12/18
Field work: 14-15 January 2019
Sample size: 1,787"
Oh.0 -
This isn't exactly a revelation. Anyone with even a tangential interest in life and works of JC would know that he is a (j)EU-baiter of long standing and impeccable credentials.bookseller said:
That's the point. He doesn't want to help Theresa with her "fucking shit deal". He wants No Deal, the economic fallout, widespread anger, and take power off the back of it.0 -
Quite. It's a mistake. Not fatal. Will pride get in the way of fixing it, or will he dig in?Paristonda said:Corbyn messed up by rejecting talks outright. May is showing no signs that her offer of talks was genuine, she is sticking to all her red lines. So he should have gone and could have walked away after the talks broke down blaming her red lines as stubbornness. Be the bigger man etc. Instead he has managed to take the heat off of her and draw attention to his own intransigence over Brexit policy.
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Unfortunately, due to sampling uncertainty, there's a non-trivial probability that there has been a modest change which has been randomly cancelled out. Tricksy things polls.NickPalmer said:A curiosity about ComRes's poll is that if you compare with the last ComRes poll (and because of house effects this is often a good idea), you find exactly zero change since the end of November, except that the LibDems are 1% down.
Not much happening, eh?0 -
I was thinking this, but on the other hand, this idea of "taking no deal off the table" is a pretty good one for everyone to be focused on from his point of view. It unites Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Greens, quite a few Tories, and the People's Vote crowd. None of which can be said for his own vague vision of Brexit.Paristonda said:Corbyn messed up by rejecting talks outright. May is showing no signs that her offer of talks was genuine, she is sticking to all her red lines. So he should have gone and could have walked away after the talks broke down blaming her red lines as stubbornness. Be the bigger man etc. Instead he has managed to take the heat off of her and draw attention to his own intransigence over Brexit policy.
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I hope that, better late than never, the tidal barrage/lagoon will now be resurrected.MarqueeMark said:
....and so all that effort by civil servants to trash the competing Tidal Barrages was for naught....eek said:Hitachi have suspended work on Wylfa Newydd nuclear power station...
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NEW THREAD
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WTAF is going on there?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I hadn't realised Labour had started the selection process in Barrow for a parliamentry candidate meaning there is no way back for Woodcock. No wonder he felt able to abstain in the VoNC. Seems a shortsighted move by a party trying to muster every vote in a Hung Parliament.0
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Taking No Deal off the table is an excellent Red Line for Corbyn to draw as it's probably the single most popular/least unpopular position in the Commons. Drawing it via refusing to talk to May ( he's a privy counsellor for Christ's sake ) is stupid and gives the Tories a process story. Will he correct his error quickly ?0
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You mean that without the immigration angle, not being in a customs union would be against the will of the people?edmundintokyo said:BudG said:Why won't Tories accept a Customs Union, if it seems the way out of this impasse and allows a deal to leave the EU to be passed?
Is there any reason why they could not include withdrawal from that Customs Union, in a future GE manifesto and, if elected, enact that without the need for any future referendum on it?
They're probably also aware that they only managed to get the voters behind their project with the help of the immigration angle, so it's going to be hard to get support for getting out of the customs union if they don't stay out now.
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Hinkley C, Wylfa and Sizewell C are unaffordable in relation to the amount of electricity they stand to generate. So's the lagoon that was proposed.OblitusSumMe said:
I hope that, better late than never, the tidal barrage/lagoon will now be resurrected.MarqueeMark said:
....and so all that effort by civil servants to trash the competing Tidal Barrages was for naught....eek said:Hitachi have suspended work on Wylfa Newydd nuclear power station...
Lagoons could be viable with a sound engineering company behind them but the chancer behind the UK scheme was featured in Private Eye and gave all the signs of merely trying to fiddle the figures to fleece the government. He might not be, er, a 'fit and proper person' to be a company director, although to their credit the government didn't cave.
Strangely, on Hinkley C, they did cave and agreed that billpayers would be liable for silly amounts of money. I wonder why.0 -
I've lis..ed les journals It's wall to wall Thierry Henry V Patrick Vieira. They wouldn't know Corbyn from a malfunctioning urinal and talking to my restaurateur friend Macron is OK.Alanbrooke said:
nah youre in France where its Macron versus LePen.Roger said:After the worst performance by a government and PM in living memory what is to-day's top story? Corbyn refusing to enter discussions. Who could have guessed?
We've almost certainly got the worst PM most of us can remember but to have the worst leader of the opposition at the same time is surely unique.
Lis les journaux Roger
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Morning all. Thanks for header. Vastly prefer option 1 to option 2. Another referendum should IMO be plan Z, a tragi-comic event not to be seriously contemplated. And I am a remainer, very much a remainer, so to this charge ...
Would it be unkind to suggest that there is a touch of fear in those who argue so fervently in favour of implementing one vote and equally fervently against asking the people to confirm that decision? A fear that perhaps the people might not do this, might not have been impressed by how their representatives have behaved, a fear that the Brexiteers’ vision might be found wanting.
... I plead NOT guilty.0 -
Got to say that both of Cyclefree's suggestions for a way forward would be unacceptable to the vast majority of Leavers as they both basically say that the vote was wrong and should be ignored. This is no way to uphold democracy.0
