politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whils
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I remember a while ago Angela Rayner got very ratty with people making fun of her accent.NeilVW said:Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner tells Huw that the PM may win the confidence vote due to the “supply and demand” of the DUP and that she has a strategy of “winding the clock down”. God help us in the event a Corbyn Government emerges from all this.
And I agree. You need to listen carefully to what she's actually saying. It's at that point you realise it really is vacuous rubbish.
(In fairness, she has some good ideas on Lifelong Learning, but on schools and universities she's barely saner than Cummings.)0 -
It is even more marked the other way round. A large minority voted for the opposite in that simplistic binary choice. Some months later, at the GE, very few of them indeed voted for the only party that most advocated Remain. Therefore they can't have been really, truly eager to follow through on their choice. Can they?Nigel_Foremain said:
Not by any clear majority though. The fun thing is this. The electorate had a referendum. A small majority voted on one of the simplistic binary choices. Some months later, the electorate had a GE and failed to endorse the one party that most advocated that choice.Therefore the will-o-the-people is about as clear as a 1950s smog that occupies the average Brexiteers nostalgia.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good try. There is an appetite for a hard brexit and to remain and indeed for a fair brexitNigel_Foremain said:
The electorate voted for a hung parliament, albeit unintentionally. The will-o-the-people is therefore what happened last night, i.e. no enthusiasm for Brexit. I'll get my coat!Black_Rook said:
I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.FF43 said:
Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.glw said:If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.
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So called austerity did not featherbed anyone.SandyRentool said:
You truly believe that? It was all just a scam to stiff the little guy while simultaneously featherbedding the fat cats.Nigel_Foremain said:
Nope, but it is not in anything like the same category, as there are many who believed it to be an economic necessity.SandyRentool said:
So you've forgotten about Cammo/Ozzie's austerity then?Nigel_Foremain said:
Well quite! Not many governments do something that they know all their advisors are telling them will damage the economy, unless they are extreme socialists or their name is Robert MugabeRecidivist said:I still have to pinch myself that the government is actively trying to take us out of the customs union. You can make an argument for anything, but it just seems totally deranged to leave something so advantageous.
Time after time they are able to take enough people for mugs to get away with it.
The government support for banks helped everyone but helped those with large deposits more than current account holders.0 -
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
You're missing two tellers for each side.
Following your logic should be 326 - 308 though if Flynn/Woodcock vote as you expect them to.0 -
Quite the contrast to the warm reception for moving certain types of letterbox.Beverley_C said:
I love the way that when anything crops up that might improve women's lives, someone on PB pops up to denounce it or trivialise it.David_Evershed said:
Good to know that the great issues of our time are being tackled.TheScreamingEagles said:Paging inappropriate gavels.
twitter.com/heartcambsnews/status/1085578358950428672?s=21
DINOSAUR!!!!!!0 -
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive, thorough, and possibly ultimately inconclusive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.0 -
Though I like him sometimes the praise is a bit overmuch, but this is a very apt summary
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1085589013333979137/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1085589013333979137&ref_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/468740490 -
Stop it.ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
Not sure, the voting is on the supporters of the confidence motion though so whether he abstains or votes with the government makes no odds to the betfair and SPIN markets.ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
0
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I'll withdraw...Anorak said:
Stop it.ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.0 -
Of course the SNP will back any VoNC in this Government.SandyRentool said:"SNP denies reports it will not back repeated motions of no confidence"
So fake news?
The entire SNP platform rests upon three legs, namely: independence is necessary; we will do the best job of standing up for Scotland; and we will fight the wicked Tories. Kick any one of the legs away and the whole thing falls over.0 -
If it is 309 you can send Woodcock a bunch of flowers!Pulpstar said:
I'mTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm in the same boat as you.Pulpstar said:
I'm not sure Hoyle and Winterton will wish to break convention to support Corbyn particularly ...TheScreamingEagles said:Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.
Well I hope they don't lol
-£559 320-329
+£96 300-309
-£40 anything else0 -
The EU won't negotiate if A50 is revoked, so hard to see how that would be of any use.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive, thorough, and possibly ultimately inconclusive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.0 -
Fiona Onasanya to be sentenced on January 29th.0
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Given the Conservative membership is 70% Leave supporting, local associations will be seeking Leave supporting candidates for future general elections.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
Depends very much on circumstances: realignment (very unlikely) could lead to a mass departure of MPs; an act of desperation by the Hard Remainers (a little more likely, if the Parliamentary stalemate continues) could involve only a small handful, although they'd need at least ten MPs willing to vote down the Government to give themselves a reasonable chance of success.Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.Black_Rook said:
May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.David_Evershed said:
Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.TGOHF said:Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?
At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
It's not inconceivable that the ERG wing could peel off if May's resolve collapses, but there's no sign of that yet and besides they'd also need to be desperate before they'd contemplate breaking away: Brexit as an aim and ideology is widespread in the party membership and they have an excellent chance of seeing a sympathiser take over as leader when May finally goes.
Don't expect Wollaston and Soubry to be selecetd as candidates in future. Noticeable that Soubry trying to be visibly showing her support for the PM today.0 -
I think you are probably right. But as Kinabalu points out the Deal is the only real alternative. No Deal just aggravates the crisis and then you are back to the same issues (but with extra economic damage and no transition period).Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.0 -
So for two crucial weeks a stupid liar who made a brainless decision without a thought for the consequences is going to be making laws?TheScreamingEagles said:Fiona Onasanya to be sentenced on January 29th.
And after that it will just be 649 of them doing it?0 -
If the Judge is a Leave supporter he will give her more than 12 months so she is expelled from parliament.TheScreamingEagles said:Fiona Onasanya to be sentenced on January 29th.
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It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...0 -
We could at least decide on the priority of whatever red lines we would be negotiation on...RobD said:
The EU won't negotiate if A50 is revoked, so hard to see how that would be of any use.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive, thorough, and possibly ultimately inconclusive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.0 -
Fortunately there appear to be plenty of other aggravating factors to justify it too, so he/she will be in the clear.David_Evershed said:
If the Judge is a Leave supporter he will give her more than 12 months so she is expelled from parliament.TheScreamingEagles said:Fiona Onasanya to be sentenced on January 29th.
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What are the sentencing guidelines for such a crime?David_Evershed said:
If the Judge is a Leave supporter he will give her more than 12 months so she is expelled from parliament.TheScreamingEagles said:Fiona Onasanya to be sentenced on January 29th.
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Soubry is a basically loyal Conservative. Unlike weapons grade shits such as Duncan Smith.David_Evershed said:
Given the Conservative membership is 70% Leave supporting, local associations will be seeking Leave supporting candidates for future general elections.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
Depends very much on circumstances: realignment (very unlikely) could lead to a mass departure of MPs; an act of desperation by the Hard Remainers (a little more likely, if the Parliamentary stalemate continues) could involve only a small handful, although they'd need at least ten MPs willing to vote down the Government to give themselves a reasonable chance of success.Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.Black_Rook said:
May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.David_Evershed said:
Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.TGOHF said:Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?
At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
It's not inconceivable that the ERG wing could peel off if May's resolve collapses, but there's no sign of that yet and besides they'd also need to be desperate before they'd contemplate breaking away: Brexit as an aim and ideology is widespread in the party membership and they have an excellent chance of seeing a sympathiser take over as leader when May finally goes.
Don't expect Wollaston and Soubry to be selecetd as candidates in future. Noticeable that Soubry trying to be visibly showing her support for the PM today.0 -
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...0 -
Good on them too, get stuck right into the lying toerag scoundrelsBlack_Rook said:
Of course the SNP will back any VoNC in this Government.SandyRentool said:"SNP denies reports it will not back repeated motions of no confidence"
So fake news?
The entire SNP platform rests upon three legs, namely: independence is necessary; we will do the best job of standing up for Scotland; and we will fight the wicked Tories. Kick any one of the legs away and the whole thing falls over.0 -
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599218880954368
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599237444956162
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599241404383238
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599245208555524
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599248463233024
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599251789500416
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10855992553546383360 -
Isn't that a bit harsh.. How often do Tory Associations remove a sitting MP as a candidate....matt said:
Soubry is a basically loyal Conservative. Unlike weapons grade shits such as Duncan Smith.David_Evershed said:
Given the Conservative membership is 70% Leave supporting, local associations will be seeking Leave supporting candidates for future general elections.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
Depends very much on circumstances: realignment (very unlikely) could lead to a mass departure of MPs; an act of desperation by the Hard Remainers (a little more likely, if the Parliamentary stalemate continues) could involve only a small handful, although they'd need at least ten MPs willing to vote down the Government to give themselves a reasonable chance of success.Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.Black_Rook said:
May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.David_Evershed said:
Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.TGOHF said:Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?
At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
It's not inconceivable that the ERG wing could peel off if May's resolve collapses, but there's no sign of that yet and besides they'd also need to be desperate before they'd contemplate breaking away: Brexit as an aim and ideology is widespread in the party membership and they have an excellent chance of seeing a sympathiser take over as leader when May finally goes.
Don't expect Wollaston and Soubry to be selecetd as candidates in future. Noticeable that Soubry trying to be visibly showing her support for the PM today.0 -
Indeed.matt said:
Soubry is a basically loyal Conservative. Unlike weapons grade shits such as Duncan Smith.David_Evershed said:
Given the Conservative membership is 70% Leave supporting, local associations will be seeking Leave supporting candidates for future general elections.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
Depends very much on circumstances: realignment (very unlikely) could lead to a mass departure of MPs; an act of desperation by the Hard Remainers (a little more likely, if the Parliamentary stalemate continues) could involve only a small handful, although they'd need at least ten MPs willing to vote down the Government to give themselves a reasonable chance of success.Sean_F said:
If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.Black_Rook said:
May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.David_Evershed said:
Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.TGOHF said:Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?
At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
It's not inconceivable that the ERG wing could peel off if May's resolve collapses, but there's no sign of that yet and besides they'd also need to be desperate before they'd contemplate breaking away: Brexit as an aim and ideology is widespread in the party membership and they have an excellent chance of seeing a sympathiser take over as leader when May finally goes.
Don't expect Wollaston and Soubry to be selecetd as candidates in future. Noticeable that Soubry trying to be visibly showing her support for the PM today.
IDS liaised with Labour whips so to help ensure the Tory government repeatedly lost votes in the Commons.0 -
She must have been hoping for Good Friday...... Like JesusTheScreamingEagles said:Fiona Onasanya to be sentenced on January 29th.
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300-309 +166.90Pulpstar said:
I'mTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm in the same boat as you.Pulpstar said:
I'm not sure Hoyle and Winterton will wish to break convention to support Corbyn particularly ...TheScreamingEagles said:Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.
Well I hope they don't lol
-£559 320-329
+£96 300-309
-£40 anything else
310-319 -56.24
320-329 -69.80
Any other +12.40
I also have a sell of MPs on SPIN at 311 at £1 per MP.0 -
So, Labour are planning to take having no Brexit policy to new heights of absurdity?0
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Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.0
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Can we call it "Chope's Law"?TheScreamingEagles said:Paging inappropriate gavels.
https://twitter.com/heartcambsnews/status/1085578358950428672?s=210 -
Why, did he get them drunk in the Strangers' Bar?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.
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You having a snipe?ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
It is performance art.Richard_Nabavi said:So, Labour are planning to take having no Brexit policy to new heights of absurdity?
0 -
Thanks to him? Did he waylay them before they could get to the division lobby or something?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.
0 -
Has Frank Field revealed his hand yet? Or Ivan Lewis?0
-
Cut it out you pheasants.MarqueeMark said:
You having a snipe?ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
You're right that I forgot the tellers, of course, and you're probably right about Woodcock as well. So that takes it to 325 - 308.Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?
You're missing two tellers for each side.
Following your logic should be 326 - 308 though if Flynn/Woodcock vote as you expect them to.0 -
He did however liaise with Labour whips to ensure Labour won a vote in the Commons that they would otherwise have lost.TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
IDS liaised with Labour whips so to help ensure the Tory government repeatedly lost votes in the Commons.
Of course, as we saw with Miliband and Syria, that might have been a mixed blessing. But given the extent to which Blair had staked his premiership on it, it would probably have sliced him off at the knees.0 -
How did he achieve that?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.
0 -
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...0 -
Mr. Meeks, not a footballist, but I saw some of that on Twitter. Sounds quite entertaining.0
-
Well you know what Balliol boys are like.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why, did he get them drunk in the Strangers' Bar?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.
(He checked the records that the precedent is for Deputy Speakers to not vote in Confidence/No Confidence votes)0 -
Well, as a Welshman I am accused of many things, but 'having a snipe' is a new one on me!MarqueeMark said:
You having a snipe?ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
I remember the infamous evening where he, 'Neil' formerly of this parish, and I had a boozy dinner which culminated in @JohnO falling asleep on the train and ending up in Brighton.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well you know what Balliol boys are like.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why, did he get them drunk in the Strangers' Bar?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.
0 -
You having a grouse?IanB2 said:
Cut it out you pheasants.MarqueeMark said:
You having a snipe?ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.0 -
Four fences to replace the one!TheScreamingEagles said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599218880954368
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599237444956162
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599241404383238
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599245208555524
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599248463233024
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085599251789500416
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10855992553546383360 -
I know he said that, did he actually tweet that?TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Now, now, no need to grouse.IanB2 said:
Cut it out you pheasants.MarqueeMark said:
You having a snipe?ydoethur said:
Woodcock will flop?Pulpstar said:
Woodcock will abstain I think.Black_Rook said:
Assuming no abstentions, absentees (other than noted below) or other independents backing the Government:
Tory + DUP + Sylvia Hermon + John Woodcock = 329 votes, less one deputy Speaker = 328 votes
Everyone else = 313 votes, less two Deputy speakers, and Paul Flynn (due to illness) = 310 votes
Government majority = 18 - unless I'm missing anything else...?0 -
I doubt it, and he didn't on the date shown. But hardly worth him complaining about that when the statement is his.RobD said:0 -
They've got his measure in Spain.
El Pais ... says that May is not the only one in difficulty: the Labour leader ‘has received a poisoned gift from Parliament’: deciding what to do next.0 -
I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.0 -
Sgt. Sunil: Alright, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
0 -
At a time like this we should all wish we had a competent opposition leader to take over from this government. What terrible luck and judgement we all have to have ended up with the pair of them. And Vince Cable.geoffw said:They've got his measure in Spain.
El Pais ... says that May is not the only one in difficulty: the Labour leader ‘has received a poisoned gift from Parliament’: deciding what to do next.0 -
Norwegian Blue-Pluseek said:
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...0 -
Strange in politics that someone who once seemed a contender for the top, like Clive Lewis, not so long after seems wholly unsuited. How people's stars rise and fall.0
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.0 -
Well yes of course that is the question.eek said:
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yeof that rigmarole again.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...
We can't crash out. I can't see a straight revocation. Which leaves an extension. But for what? A second referendum? Not a GE surely. And I don't think the backstop is going anywhere. So that is the Deal.
Add in a (non permanent) CU to the backstop for the whole of GBNI and you're there.
It's only the withdrawal agreement after all.0 -
I'm depressed by many recent debates too, but I rather think that condemning the system itself as not fit for purpose is a proportionate reaction. Ultimately the present problem is MPs being brutally divided on the most critical issue of the day. Aspects of our system might well aggravate problems we have, but I don't see much to suggest the system itself is fundamentally flawed.oxfordsimon said:I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.0 -
Now, that’s political betting.AlastairMeeks said:
300-309 +166.90Pulpstar said:
I'mTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm in the same boat as you.Pulpstar said:
I'm not sure Hoyle and Winterton will wish to break convention to support Corbyn particularly ...TheScreamingEagles said:Second Deputy Speaker Michael Morris didn't vote in the 1993 confidence vote either.
Well I hope they don't lol
-£559 320-329
+£96 300-309
-£40 anything else
310-319 -56.24
320-329 -69.80
Any other +12.40
I also have a sell of MPs on SPIN at 311 at £1 per MP.0 -
Unless you're a hard brexiter if you voted for Art 50 then you simply must vote through the Withdrawal agreement. It's that simple really.oxfordsimon said:I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.0 -
To be fair, I think we are overly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing, regardless of Brexit. The almost routine invocations of Operation Stack in the years leading up to it demonstrated that.kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.
Our resilience in other port and airport infrastructure needs to be diversified and built up.0 -
300-309 caving on price. People able to count at last perhaps...0
-
Is rushing a referendum in 8 days a good idea? Practical considerations are secondary I would imagine. Particularly given the whinges that people did not know what they were voting for last time.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Anyway, I'm off. Good luck to those betting on the numbers. As I wrote this morning, was tempted by 3.8 on 300-309, but decided against it.0
-
-
It's flawed because Parliament isn't representative and because so many useless MPs sit with jobs for life in safe seats. Not to mention the Lords.kle4 said:
I'm depressed by many recent debates too, but I rather think that condemning the system itself as not fit for purpose is a proportionate reaction. Ultimately the present problem is MPs being brutally divided on the most critical issue of the day. Aspects of our system might well aggravate problems we have, but I don't see much to suggest the system itself is fundamentally flawed.oxfordsimon said:I have just watched a few contributions to this 'debate'
Creasy started off shouting and just got shriller as she went on - trying to be clever and just coming off as self-absorbed
No idea who Alison Thewlis is - but she is no orator. Most of the things she ranted about were Scottish matters that her own party could have addressed but haven't as the SNP are just obsessed with one issue.
What is the point of allowing 6 hours for pointless MPs to spew pointless nonsense? There is nothing to illuminate or elucidate. It is just posturing. And it does nothing to help anyone achieve anything.
I am far from convinced that our Parliamentary system is any longer fit for purpose. It certainly isn't working. Whether that is the system or the current inhabitants, I am not yet certain. But something needs to change.0 -
2019 is err this year.Scott_P said:0 -
To remind people what an idiot Cameron was for the way the first referendum was framed?kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.0 -
Bournemouth. Bugger Brighton.Richard_Nabavi said:
I remember the infamous evening where he, 'Neil' formerly of this parish, and I had a boozy dinner which culminated in @JohnO falling asleep on the train and ending up in Brighton.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well you know what Balliol boys are like.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why, did he get them drunk in the Strangers' Bar?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks to JohnO, the deputy Speakers didn't vote in the 1979 vote of no confidence.
0 -
Is that a Scottish once-in-a-generation-referendum or a UK once-in-a-generation-referendum Dave?kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.0 -
This debate is awful; when does it end?!0
-
Critics have a point when they blame Lisbon, A50 and EU politics for the hard rule sequencing of the talks, which are borderline idiotic, but we are where we are.FF43 said:
I think you are probably right. But as Kinabalu points out the Deal is the only real alternative. No Deal just aggravates the crisis and then you are back to the same issues (but with extra economic damage and no transition period).Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.0 -
And the last couple of elections showed us just what a reliable indicator that isTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It would only preach to the converted, not convert anyone, so go right ahead.kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.0 -
Yup, both lost general elections.Stereotomy said:
And the last couple of elections showed us just what a reliable indicator that isTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Honestly I think they would have trouble deciding they exist. But we know they do because they are irritating us so much.williamglenn said:0 -
I see no point in BINO. If that was on the table versus Remain, I’d spoil my ballet.SandyRentool said:
Norwegian Blue-Pluseek said:
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...0 -
From a meaningful vote last night, to a meaningless vote tonightMortimer said:This debate is awful; when does it end?!
0 -
The converted 52% you mean? Right-o.......Foxy said:
It would only preach to the converted, not convert anyone, so go right ahead.kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.0 -
I see no point in BINO. If that was on the table versus Remain, I’d spoil my ballet.SandyRentool said:
Norwegian Blue-Pluseek said:
It may be the only deal in town but how do you get 116+ MPs to change their minds when the EU aren't going to change anything?TOPPING said:
Except... the Deal is the only game in town. What a huge waste of time waiting for the HoC to realise that.eek said:
It may happen if the risk of the Tory party being destroyed by a No Deal exit becomes too high a risk.Anorak said:
That would be worth it just to see the froth explosion. The gammons would shift into beetroots, and then aubergines.FF43 said:
For the third time of (noone) asking, I will say the long grass is looking greener. Royal Commissions is how the British political class deals with intractable and embarrassing problems. Set up a Royal Commission to establish the best way to meet all stakeholder requirements, Revoke Article 50 and wait for several years while the expensive process deliberates.kinabalu said:
I would be a buyer in reckless size of Remain at 60 in that (no) contest. Ironically yesterday's brutal and very public rogering of the Deal renders it even less likely to ever see the light of day on a ballot paper.Black_Rook said:I wouldn't expect a Deal/Remain referendum to produce a landslide of that kind for Remain. If compelled to back a winner I would indeed pick Remain, but as the only form of Leave possible within that constrained choice it might do better than most people expect.
Not that anything is, IMO, and thank heaven for that. Putting aside the intractable problems of question and timing etc, I do not think there is the general will or, you know, energy to go through all of that rigmarole again.
No, Parliament have to sort this, and I am confident that they will. They just need time & space for some rumbustious activity, some votes, some meetings, some speeches, and then they will ratify the Treaty.
I'm not mad at them for delaying the inevitable. It is perfectly understandable. Mrs May has been extremely insular and secretive during the Brexit process and there is now pent up tension that has to be released. It's healthy.
Not going to happen though, too many people lashed to their particular masts to facilitate it.
As I said earlier the 2 options are revoke or No Deal - given that the Deal has been so comprehensively rejected I can see zero other options available...
So what options are left on the table beyond a deal that is as dead as a Norwegian Blue, crashing out or revoking...
0 -
Judging by the Worksop Guardian's facebook page, Bassetlaw is well up for a hard Brexit and John Mann is being painted as some sort of europhile.
Oh the lols.0 -
Well, if you want silliness just look at this:MarqueeMark said:
Is that a Scottish once-in-a-generation-referendum or a UK once-in-a-generation-referendum Dave?kyf_100 said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRowLjb0x48TheScreamingEagles said:
If there's a second referendum, Leave just has to play this on loop for six weeks until the vote.
I would favour two referendums held a couple of weeks apart, the first asking voters whether they wished to leave or remain. If leave won, the second referendum would seek a verdict on the terms of departure.
Professor Bogdanor is an Oxford don and probably a bit dim, but surely even he must have noticed the reason we're in this mess is we've already HAD the first of those?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/23/peoples-vote-brexit-mps-second-referendum0 -
And in 2015 Cameron wonTheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
Pulpstar said:
290-299 bizarrely coming into play !
That'll be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn himself.
Who in their right mind would want Corbyn anywhere near power?0 -
What is Watson on?
FFS0 -
If it wasn’t the source this time, I heartily recommend Hansard for the next such query...TheScreamingEagles said:It is hard to believe my former colleagues thought I had an obsession with (political) betting.
I mean I haven't spent most of today scouring the internet to see if Deputy Speakers vote in confidence votes so I can win a bet.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199293/cmhansrd/1993-07-23/Debate-13.html (Previous/Next links at the top and bottom to navigate through)0 -
TaHarris_Tweed said:
If it wasn’t the source this time, I heartily recommend Hansard for the next such query...TheScreamingEagles said:It is hard to believe my former colleagues thought I had an obsession with (political) betting.
I mean I haven't spent most of today scouring the internet to see if Deputy Speakers vote in confidence votes so I can win a bet.
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199293/cmhansrd/1993-07-23/Debate-13.html (Previous/Next links at the top and bottom to navigate through)0
