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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whils

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whilst the 2nd referendum betting moves more to NO

Live Betfair exchange odds monitoring from Betdata.io

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    First!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Second by 230 votes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. B2, I demand a second thread, so the will of PB can be made known now that all the facts are in the public domain.

    The second referendum prices haven't changed much recently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    3% chance that ERG members get stuck at a champagne party?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    The only 2 outcomes I can see at the moment are us crashing out or us revoking...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited January 2019
    I've never placed a political bet in my life (so why have I been hanging out on here for 13 years you ask? ;) ) But I must say given No Deal Brexit is the default option for 29th March I am tempted to place £50 on Yes UK To Leave On 29th March! :D
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    GIN1138 said:

    I've never placed a political bet in my life (so why have I been hanging out on here for 13 years you ask? ;) ) But I must say given No Deal Brexit is the default option for 29th March I am tempted to place £50 on Yes UK To Leave On 29th March! :D

    You'd win £270 if you were right. But I wouldn't be tempted if I were you. It would be sad to lose £50 on your first ever bet.

    Leaving between July and December this year to win £180 I think is a better value bet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1085565732543377409
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    ERG won't crash the Govt. until such point as the 29th March is in the middle of the general election campaign, so that Parliment can't stop it.....

    What a fun campaign THAT would be....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    It won't be up to her.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. P, no. It'll rumble on for years regardless of what happens in the next few months.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The_Taxman said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!
    She has to have a plan B by Monday. Then the House gets to amend it and vote on it.

    That's gonna be fun.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

    Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. kle4, she'll be bringing a Plan B to Parliament on Monday. Unless she's been defenestrated beforehand, of course.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    I've never placed a political bet in my life (so why have I been hanging out on here for 13 years you ask? ;) ) But I must say given No Deal Brexit is the default option for 29th March I am tempted to place £50 on Yes UK To Leave On 29th March! :D

    Never bet on emotions!

    You have to separate out what you would like to happen from what might or might not happen. Many a punter makes the mistake of backing something because they want it to happen rather than on the probabilities of it not happening.

    You back Brexit on the 29th March if you can get good odds but don't be disappointed if it does not happen.


    I don't bet on politics anymore, I lost on it!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    edited January 2019
    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    grabcocque said:

    Second by 230 votes.

    It's just an amazing number isn't it? A real peak of non persuasion. A monument to May and her incompetence.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    148grss said:

    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

    Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?

    You're right, of course. Even if we stay in the SM+CU, it's unlikely the EEA organs will be available to us. We're known troublemakers, and the EU will insist on a much stricter bespoke mechanism to make sure we can't act as a wrecker or otherwise throw our weight around.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    If there is a Parliamentary majority for a negotiated solution, yet that self-same cohort of MPs permits a No Deal that they're terrified of to happen by default (allowing Jacob Rees-Mogg and Arlene Foster to triumph over the lot of them in the process,) then they might just as well take a running jump into the Thames with pockets full of lead weights.

    A purer example of perfect uselessness can scarcely be contemplated.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    grabcocque said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!
    She has to have a plan B by Monday. Then the House gets to amend it and vote on it.

    That's gonna be fun.
    Indeed, I think she looks at every extra day in power as a bonus. I suspect she conflates the national interest with her own. This is not a way to run a Government or Country.

    I wonder if she is going to surpass Spencer Perceval?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    His ratings are still horrible, though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    Her husband is an Investment Fund manager. It's a no-brainer.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    The_Taxman said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I've never placed a political bet in my life (so why have I been hanging out on here for 13 years you ask? ;) ) But I must say given No Deal Brexit is the default option for 29th March I am tempted to place £50 on Yes UK To Leave On 29th March! :D

    Never bet on emotions!

    You have to separate out what you would like to happen from what might or might not happen. Many a punter makes the mistake of backing something because they want it to happen rather than on the probabilities of it not happening.

    You back Brexit on the 29th March if you can get good odds but don't be disappointed if it does not happen.


    I don't bet on politics anymore, I lost on it!
    But one could take the position that one doesn't want No Deal, one thinks No Deal would be very damaging, but that an implied probability of 16% for Brexit on schedule offers an efficient way of insuring against the consequences of No Deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    grabcocque said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.
    I think you've got the wrong idea who is going to be undertaking those show trials.....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    148grss said:

    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

    Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?
    It shouldn't be hard to create something very like EFTA for a membership of one. The stumbling block is more fundamental. To reach that endpoint we are required to agree a Withdrawal Agreement first.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    Typical Leaver. You don’t like it up you.

    People like you have ruined the party and inflict untold damage on the country, worst of all inflict a Corbyn premiership.

    A period of quiet reflection from you be apt.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    There are several people on this forum who are weirdly obsessed with President Macron.

    They tend to be the very same people who are obsessed with Sadiq Khan and who despise the Tube scene in Darkest Hour.

    Beware encouraging them!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Never mind Brexit, this will cheer everyone who delivers leaflets;
    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2019-01-16/mps-bid-to-ban-low-level-letterboxes-gets-stamp-of-approval/
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Never mind Brexit, this will cheer everyone who delivers leaflets;
    https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2019-01-16/mps-bid-to-ban-low-level-letterboxes-gets-stamp-of-approval/

    A ban on political junk mail would cheer most of the public.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Lots of MPs still wanting to debate the Brexit deal and not the VONC/VNOC/VCON
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Anazina said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    There are several people on this forum who are weirdly obsessed with President Macron.

    They tend to be the very same people who are obsessed with Sadiq Khan and who despise the Tube scene in Darkest Hour.

    Beware encouraging them!
    I have never seen Darkest Hour (but despise the Tube scene as an historical abomination), find myself increasingly exasperated by Sadiq Khan's inability to do anything in London except to make Boris Johnson's tenure look better, but really could not give two hoots about the President of France.

    Do I win a cookie?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    Typical Leaver. You don’t like it up you.

    People like you have ruined the party and inflict untold damage on the country, worst of all inflict a Corbyn premiership.

    A period of quiet reflection from you be apt.
    LoL @ chance of 'quiet reflection'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Sean_F said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    His ratings are still horrible, though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency
    A recent bump upwards though, and still the most popular leader in the country.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083852789695041539?s=19

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Me, yes. But there will be no cookies outside the EU.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    Typical Leaver. You don’t like it up you.

    People like you have ruined the party and inflict untold damage on the country, worst of all inflict a Corbyn premiership.

    A period of quiet reflection from you be apt.
    When the Tories split will you two no longer be in the same party?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    The_Taxman said:

    grabcocque said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    She is concentrating on the confidence vote until that is over she continues to try to appeal to all! I watched the tedious PMQ's today and my abiding impression was that she was oscillating between the factions. This has got to come to a massive breaking point, what surprises me is every time we think the crunch is coming into view: something defers it that little bit longer!
    She has to have a plan B by Monday. Then the House gets to amend it and vote on it.

    That's gonna be fun.
    Indeed, I think she looks at every extra day in power as a bonus. I suspect she conflates the national interest with her own. This is not a way to run a Government or Country.

    I wonder if she is going to surpass Spencer Perceval?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
    No she isn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    Kisenosato, Japan's last remaining sumo champion, retires

    The only two wrestlers left at the elite level are both from Mongolia.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-46892222
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Anazina said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    There are several people on this forum who are weirdly obsessed with President Macron.

    They tend to be the very same people who are obsessed with Sadiq Khan and who despise the Tube scene in Darkest Hour.

    Beware encouraging them!
    No one brings up darkest hour more than you.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Anazina said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    There are several people on this forum who are weirdly obsessed with President Macron.

    They tend to be the very same people who are obsessed with Sadiq Khan and who despise the Tube scene in Darkest Hour.

    Beware encouraging them!
    I have never seen Darkest Hour (but despise the Tube scene as an historical abomination), find myself increasingly exasperated by Sadiq Khan's inability to do anything in London except to make Boris Johnson's tenure look better, but really could not give two hoots about the President of France.

    Do I win a cookie?
    No.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Lots of MPs still wanting to debate the Brexit deal and not the VONC/VNOC/VCON

    Haven't they had enough? The deal is dead, move on!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    148grss said:

    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

    Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?
    Exactly. MPs are still behaving as if Europe were a menu of options and all the UK has to do is make its choice and ask the EU to bring it to the table. The EU will have no confidence that this House of Commons, and certainly not this Prime Minister, can deliver on any new deal it might offer and therefore it has no reason to offer one.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Me, yes. But there will be no cookies outside the EU.

    Just as well I have a stash of digestives then.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    IanB2 said:

    Lots of MPs still wanting to debate the Brexit deal and not the VONC/VNOC/VCON


    Can we debate gnu, gonu and guc in today's super soaraway initialism clash?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    His ratings are still horrible, though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency
    A recent bump upwards though, and still the most popular leader in the country.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083852789695041539?s=19

    French politicians are even less popular than our own.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Black_Rook said:

    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    If there is a Parliamentary majority for a negotiated solution, yet that self-same cohort of MPs permits a No Deal that they're terrified of to happen by default (allowing Jacob Rees-Mogg and Arlene Foster to triumph over the lot of them in the process,) then they might just as well take a running jump into the Thames with pockets full of lead weights.

    A purer example of perfect uselessness can scarcely be contemplated.
    About 70%+ of MPs are Remain/BINO. But something akin to EFTA would probably satisfy a majority of the country (assuming it was explained to them by someone without an axe to grind). Yet the default is Hard Brexit which even many of its proponents say will be very difficult, with the only likely alternative being a second referendum which is going to make about 17 million people very angry.

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Song, no deal is what happens if nothing else is agreed.

    Fortunately, MPs didn't recently vote to restrict no deal spending to mitigate the effects.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    logical_song said:

    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.
    No Deal will occur if enough MPs see advantage to it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    Your position is very clear. You want to Remain under any circumstances. The referendum result is invalid because you don't agree with it. I've no problems with that.

    You're not alone in your views, but can we call a re-run of the referendum a re-run? This Peoples' vote cobblers is embarrassing. Call it what it is. A rerun for those who lost?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Your position is very clear. You want to Remain under any circumstances. The referendum result is invalid because you don't agree with it. I've no problems with that.

    You're not alone in your views, but can we call a re-run of the referendum a re-run? This Peoples' vote cobblers is embarrassing. Call it what it is. A rerun for those who lost?

    .. and yet the question will be different and much more specific.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The thing is, there is no option which will get a majority until most of the other options (real and fictional) have been eliminated - and have been accepted as eliminated by MPs. How do we get there?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Sean_F said:

    logical_song said:

    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.
    No Deal will occur if enough MPs see advantage to it.
    ... which they won't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    logical_song said:

    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.
    I've tilted my book to

    +84 NOT on time exit/
    +235 On time exit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    Your position is very clear. You want to Remain under any circumstances. The referendum result is invalid because you don't agree with it. I've no problems with that.

    You're not alone in your views, but can we call a re-run of the referendum a re-run? This Peoples' vote cobblers is embarrassing. Call it what it is. A rerun for those who lost?

    Don’t lie.

    I’ve repeatedly said we’ve got to Leave in March. I’d prefer we left with the deal but if we Leave with no deal so be it.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I just hope some kind people are there tonight to help some of the ERG members through the right corridor come the vote...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    grabcocque said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.
    As a LEAVE voter yourself I'm not sure that's going work out very well...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    I've tilted my book to

    +84 NOT on time exit/
    +235 On time exit.

    Mine's quite similar:

    +£323 Q1
    +£220 Q2
    +£66 Later/not at all
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    GIN1138 said:

    grabcocque said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.
    As a LEAVE voter yourself I'm not sure that's going work out very well...
    Why not? I'm sure there's room for two in @grabcoque's loft.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    "I’ve repeatedly said we’ve got to Leave in March. I’d prefer we left with the deal but if we Leave with no deal so be it."

    I apologise for thinking you wanted to Remain. Welcome to the democracy club. You're a real gentleman.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    Her husband is an Investment Fund manager. It's a no-brainer.
    Careful! You'll have Carlotta after you.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1085562954496516096?s=21
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Song,

    "and yet the question will be different and much more specific."

    What will it be if there's a re-run?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,254
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I’ve repeatedly said we’ve got to Leave in March. I’d prefer we left with the deal but if we Leave with no deal so be it.

    Hesitate to provide a window into my tortured psyche but my order of preference on the possible outcomes is as below:

    (1) REVOKE
    (2) DEAL
    (3) NO DEAL
    (4) ANOTHER REFERENDUM
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The thing is, there is no option which will get a majority until most of the other options (real and fictional) have been eliminated - and have been accepted as eliminated by MPs. How do we get there?

    I think they have to be tried and seen to fail one at a time.

    This is the other consequence of May not broadening the debate on negotiations with the EU at the early stage. As well as failing to win support for the compromises she concluded had to be made, it allowed everyone else to hold onto their fantasies.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Barnesian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. eek, what happens next might depend on whether May dislikes No Deal or No Departure more.

    Her husband is an Investment Fund manager. It's a no-brainer.
    Careful! You'll have Carlotta after you.
    Why?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,081
    anothernick said:

    148grss said:

    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

    Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?
    Exactly. MPs are still behaving as if Europe were a menu of options and all the UK has to do is make its choice and ask the EU to bring it to the table. The EU will have no confidence that this House of Commons, and certainly not this Prime Minister, can deliver on any new deal it might offer and therefore it has no reason to offer one.
    It's unlikely there will be a big change-over of most MPs, even with a GE.

    Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Pulpstar said:

    logical_song said:

    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.
    I've tilted my book to

    +84 NOT on time exit/
    +235 On time exit.
    No deal doesn't need to get through the HoC - it's the default that will happen unless the impasse is broken.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    logical_song said:

    Sean_F said:

    logical_song said:

    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    No deal is the default. Its where we end up on March 29th unless something changes.

    May doesn't want a second referendum because if remain win, it's the end of the Tory party. I'll certainly not be voting for them for a long, long time and I doubt I'm the only one.

    She doesn't want to call a general election because there is a good chance she will either lose or end up in an even worse position than before. The polls mean nothing. A Corbyn pivot to a second referendum position could easily give him a majority.

    So where does that leave us? With running down the clock. With a game of chicken to see who will blink first. The closer we get to March 29th with no deal in place, the more appealing May's deal looks. Perhaps she's betting enough MPs will be willing to back her deal at five minutes to midnight to avoid a hard Brexit to get her over the line. Or perhaps her gambit will fail. Either way, at better than 5/1 I'm putting a few quid on us leaving on March 29th.

    My logic too.

    May will survive.

    Today she has ruled out A50 revocation and a #peoplesvote.

    A50 extension would only be for a GE or referendum.

    So it looks like either No Deal or a last minute repeat of last night.

    Leaving 29/3 looks good value.



    No deal is not likely to get through the HoC, a repeat of last night will get a similar result. I have money on not leaving on 29th (at good odds) - although not much admittedly.
    No Deal will occur if enough MPs see advantage to it.
    ... which they won't.
    Well, there are 118 Conservatives who do, and plenty from opposition parties who see advantage to it.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    GIN1138 said:

    grabcocque said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is ridiculous.

    My winnings from yesterday and then some have been reinvested on us leaving at the end of March.

    Buckle up, 70 odd days until we Hard Brexit and we’re allowed to flay Leavers in public.

    Plus mass sterilisation for the ERG so their stupidity can’t pollute future generations.

    Your contributions of late have frankly been an embarrassment. Stop posting - unless you intend us to watch your very public emotional collapse.
    I tell you what, when the Brexit showtrials start and there are death squads rounding up and disappearing suspected leave collaborators, I promise I'll let you hide in my loft.
    As a LEAVE voter yourself I'm not sure that's going work out very well...
    Eh? Grabbo is a Leave voter???
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    His ratings are still horrible, though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency
    A recent bump upwards though, and still the most popular leader in the country.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083852789695041539?s=19

    French politicians are even less popular than our own.
    Perhaps, but it is also a feature of their two round electoral system. Macron has only ever had primary support in the twenties, but has been much more transfer friendly than Le Pen.

    On those figures it would be a Macron vs Le Pen second round again, and he would win.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited January 2019
    Why not have a convocation as has been suggested. A bread and water diet and we shoot one MP at random at the end of every decision-less day ... We could then say we're leaving it to God to decide.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    CD13 said:

    Why not have a convocation as has been suggested. A bread and water diet and we shoot one MP at random at the end of every decision-less day.. We could then sat we're leaving it to God to decide.

    As I commented yesterday why are we giving them bread and water. Your typical MP wouldn't be any more delusional than they currently are if we stopped feeding and watering them...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,155
    CD13 said:

    Why not have a convocation as has been suggested. A bread and water diet and we shoot one MP at random at the end of every decision-less day.. We could then sat we're leaving it to God to decide.

    I say this with respect but I do not think reference to shooting mps is at all appropriate
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr G,

    Perhaps you're right. Let's kill them with kindness, or just sack them.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    300-309 now the favourite seat band on Betfair for Ayes on the VoNC (and overall a general movement implying a lower expected number). Any reason, or have punters belatedly learned to count / realised lots of MPs don't want an election right now / think the Opposition whips have given up?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    CD13 said:

    Why not have a convocation as has been suggested. A bread and water diet and we shoot one MP at random at the end of every decision-less day ... We could then say we're leaving it to God to decide.

    There are only 72 days left to Brexit day so the chance of survival for each MP would be >88%.

    This doesn't provide a very strong incentive unless they like a lot of their colleagues.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1085562954496516096?s=21

    Another great example of the brains behind Brexit, and an example of why all MPs should have to pass an IQ test and score at least 100. This would probably rule out Nadine and the LOTO
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Endillion, now I feel silly for not backing that :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Endillion said:

    300-309 now the favourite seat band on Betfair for Ayes on the VoNC (and overall a general movement implying a lower expected number). Any reason, or have punters belatedly learned to count / realised lots of MPs don't want an election right now / think the Opposition whips have given up?

    309/310 is almost 50-50 so far as I can tell.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Soubry will.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr SumMe,

    I've also realised that the porkers will survive longest. Perhaps a little unfair on the ballerinas?


    Anyway, Que sera sera.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Soubry will.
    Heidi Allen will be, and I would assume Grieve also
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    CD13 said:

    Mr G,

    Perhaps you're right. Let's kill them with kindness, or just sack them.

    Tar and feather perhaps or even make them pay full price for drink and food
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    eek said:

    The only 2 outcomes I can see at the moment are us crashing out or us revoking...

    Correct!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,155
    Port of Dover release a statement with two ferry companies saying they are prepared for a no deal Brexit

    How long before ERG jump on that
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,692
    Paging inappropriate gavels.

    https://twitter.com/heartcambsnews/status/1085578358950428672?s=21
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    glw said:

    If nothing else we have learnt that out Parliament doesn't work very well and is not all that representative of the general public.

    Put to a public vote I wouldn't be surprised if the public rejected "May's Deal" by a similar margin to that in the HoC. Despite what Mrs May says, her deal is what essentially no-one voted for in June 2016.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    AnneJGP said:

    anothernick said:

    148grss said:

    grabcocque said:

    I'm willing to believe there's a majority in Parliament for Norway+, but it's nearly impossible to achieve because May is autistic, Corbyn is trying to maximise chaos, and the ERG will resign the whip and crash her government rather than let it happen.

    The issue with a Norway+ deal, even if our Parliament passed it; would the other countries want to be tied to us when we are obviously as nutty as a squirrel in a nutella factory?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

    Why would any other country trust us to be in a deal with them based on the way our government and parliament have acted through this whole thing?
    Exactly. MPs are still behaving as if Europe were a menu of options and all the UK has to do is make its choice and ask the EU to bring it to the table. The EU will have no confidence that this House of Commons, and certainly not this Prime Minister, can deliver on any new deal it might offer and therefore it has no reason to offer one.
    It's unlikely there will be a big change-over of most MPs, even with a GE.

    Is there any mechanism for discharging the whole lot and starting with a complete set of fresh faces, like dismissing a jury that can't reach a verdict?

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    The safe seat curse which is why we have to suffer most of these numpties in the first place.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    grabcocque said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Another poll in France showing a jump back to En Marche. This has been a pattern throughout January so far. It seems we may have got to the point where the Gilets Jaune are actively helping Macron.
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1085561628731559936

    Since he kicked off his citizens' assemblies roadshow and apology tour, his approval ratings have started to climb upwards.
    His ratings are still horrible, though.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency
    A recent bump upwards though, and still the most popular leader in the country.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1083852789695041539?s=19

    French politicians are even less popular than our own.
    They've an alphabet soup of parties though. If Parliament were elected by PR in this country then we might see the same kind of thing.

    The Tories and Labour aren't hovering around 40% in the polls because they are widely admired by the electorate. It's possible that most of the votes given to the two major parties in each election come from voters backing the least worst available option, or the candidate best placed to keep the worst possible option from winning, rather than as positive endorsements of the parties concerned.
This discussion has been closed.