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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair a March 29th UK EU exit now just a 15% chance whils

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085608360001630209

    Which we noted this morning on here.
  • Have heard the same, and there's movement towards a/the customs union as well

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1085608360001630209

    I don’t think he’s going to dance.
    I think they are going to bypass Corbyn.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sweet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    He's right, but his comment about it solving anything is very wrong and misplaced.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Meeting with JC tonight....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:
    Where's old grabcoque.... something about cursed numbers?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.

    Just topped up a couple more quid on him.

    I think he is probably a Marmite politician. Personally, I think he is untrustworthy, shifty and insincere.
    He’s a massive contradiction... intelligent and occasionally witty but seemingly lacking charisma, massively liberal reformer on prisons but absolutely bowl-of-cold-sick to liberal educationalists. I guess those who want to like him see the good stuff, those who don’t see the bad stuff. Those of us who see more politics than most probably see both and don’t know what they think.

    That said, I bet most of the people behind him were wishing TM had managed an ounce of that passion in some of her performances.
    True, I saw David Cameron on the TV and thought his communication skills were better than anyone in the Cabinet at the moment to be honest. Politics puzzles me at the moment, not just UK politics but America as well. It seems people have forgotten the hard won peace and relative stability we have succeeded in creating post WWII and people have become impatient with the status quo and want something dynamic and different even if it means walking off a cliff. I think it is all bonkers and will end in tears!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    If all Tory MPs had all supported May last night as loyally as they’re going to tonight, May’s Deal would have passed by a majority of 6 and we’d be on the way to a smooth and steady transition to a relatively hardish and meaningful Brexit through a permanent FTA that was both realistic and honoured the referendum result.

    Something to remember over the coming months.

    Indeed. The ERG have a lot to answer for. As bad as Grieve and his ilk.
    Thought you were an ultra hard no-dealer? Have I misunderstood?
    Not in the slightest, I think some wires have been crossed. The deal was lamentable, but still the best of the options available.
    Fair enough. I thought it was an acceptable compromise. I thought the future political declaration was genuinely fair.
    Yes I agree with that, I think the PM could have done a lot better by not agreeing to any backstop in the first place.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    RobD said:

    306-325

    So gain Peterborough and the Tories don't need the DUP.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    325, exactly as expected. So who were the 3 or 4 abstentions on the opposition side?
  • Sweet.

    Don't forget to collect your fiver from Sporting Index.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Corbyn turning down the offer of talks with May.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited January 2019
    306-325

    Implies:
    - Govt got Hermon
    - 4 Lab / Ind Lab abstentions

    And note if DUP had voted against Govt then Govt would only have lost by one vote.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SNP also putting conditions on talks.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sweet.

    Don't forget to collect your fiver from Sporting Index.
    Hmph. You have to spoil the mood.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    MikeL said:

    306-325

    Implies:
    - Govt got Hermon
    - 4 Lab / Ind Lab abstentions

    And note if DUP had voted against Govt then Govt would only have lost by one vote.

    Oooooo, that'd been 1979 redux!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    That's very interesting and a bigger margin than expected. Who were the abstentions other than the Sinners, Speakers and Tellers? Looks like there were seven of them.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    And the LDs - also closed to talks without conditions.
  • Scott_P said:
    He's making a completely bonkers demand. She can't 'rule out' No Deal by herself, but the purpose of the talks is that she's trying to find a way of avoiding it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    That's not within her ability to rule out. It's an outcome from failure to agree, not necessarily a choice.
  • NEW THREAD

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Evening all :)

    Won't be lost on anyone had the DUP voted with the Opposition the motion would have carried 316-315.
  • Sweet.

    Don't forget to collect your fiver from Sporting Index.
    Hmph. You have to spoil the mood.
    I'm up all of £30, enough for a couple of glasses of champagne at a London restaurant.
  • RobD said:

    306-325

    48:52

    BANTER
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    My God, why isn't Gove selling the Tory party every day of the week.

    Just topped up a couple more quid on him.

    He is doing his leadership credentials no harm
    The only really black mark against him was him pulling his support for Boris post the Brexit ref - that was really quite poor form. I think there was some suggestion of the influence of Mrs Gove there. If that was the case then I hope she either doesn't intervene in the future, or he doesn't listen if she does.
    His disastrous exam reforms are not a black mark against him?
    Oh, he's made mistakes. I don't know the detail of the issue you raise, so I'll just take your word for it that it was a mistake. Perhaps it's a mistake too far for you. Mistakes though are one thing, and acting dishonorably is another. I'd rather avoid having as PM anyone that has ever acted that way. I'd certainly not exclude people that have made mistakes though.
    He's rendered all exam grades little better than guesses, due to deliberately over-ruling expert advice on content and assessment. He has also forced syllabi that are almost unteachable on us.

    And he did it so far as can be judged (and despite his many claims) not because he wanted to improve grades, but because he wanted to prove he could. I'd call that 'acting dishonourably.'

    With regard to this speech - which I haven't seen - what he says has never been an issue. I've always agreed with his outline plans on administrative reform, course content and assessment patterns. But I judge people by what they do, not what they say.

    On the basis of what he has done, I prefer a serial liar, racist, terrorist supporter and apologist for paedophilia to him. I think that tells you all you need to know about his electoral appeal.
    Well fair enough. I don't agree with your presumption as to his motives on education reform, but if that were true then it'd be a very black mark.

    I really don't want to see Corbyn allowed to do anything. He's about the worst person I know based on what he says, I can't imagine how bad him doing things would be. (Some want to allow someone that has done nothing for 50 years to be our doer-in-chief! A trial run surely would be best - stage 1: shoelaces - let him tackle them.)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will Grieve, Soubry and Heidi Allen be voting for May ?

    Yes. Up until May's official policy becomes No Deal.

    At which point they lose the party whip and find a different Conservative candidate in their constituency at the next general election.
    May's policy was her Deal, is her Deal and will be her Deal.

    Doesn't mean that there won't necessarily be an outright rebellion at some point, but certainly not today.
    If the Conservatives split, it will be interesting to see where the fault line runs.

    Will it be between 100 hard Brexiteers and the rest, or 50 anti-No Dealers and the rest?
    I saw a comparison which showed the correlation between those advocating No Deal and those opposed to same sex marriage.

    The split is much deeper than on the EU.
    Link?

    I suspect it’s going to be meaningless in terms of r2
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    May's problem is with the Withdrawal Agreement not the political declaration.

    Adopting Norway, Canada etc make no difference to the Withdrawal Agreement.

    The Withdrawal Agreement should have been negotiated with a Free Trade agreement so that the Irish brder issue would not arise. But it wasn't.

    The only solutions to the Irish backstop issue are either

    a) Remain

    b) Leave without an agreement and then negotiate a free trade agreement alongside a new withdrawal agreement. Neither the Irish nor the British will introduce checks at the border in the meantime.

    Ummm - how do I put this?

    If we leave without a deal, we don't need a Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is solely designed to smooth the process of leaving. Once we have withdrawn, with or without a withdrawal agreement, we can if we and the EU agree (which is something else I think too many people are overlooking) separately negotiate a new free trade agreement.

    The problem is we cannot leave without either some of withdrawal agreement, or massive disruption, which means it is slightly unfortunate that the third rate Oedipus complex sufferers in Parliament have just rejected the withdrawal agreement.
    The most suitable punishment would be that meted put to his daughter (or grand daughter?)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    MikeL said:

    306-325

    Implies:
    - Govt got Hermon
    - 4 Lab / Ind Lab abstentions

    And note if DUP had voted against Govt then Govt would only have lost by one vote.

    Oh, when's that bye election?
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