politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive ha
Comments
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He does what he wants.Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:0 -
Not quite, because the Murrison amendment would have required the EU to change the WA.Stereotomy said:By the way, wouldn't the Leigh & Baron amendments have essentially the same effect as the Murrison amendment?
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Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
What an incredibly stupid system we've created.TGOHF said:
He does what he wants.Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:0 -
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
Mind you, since the DUP were not on board, the Murrison amendment was dead anyway.0
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It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
It is already in law. Passing through Parliament took place when 498 mps voted for A50 without having a clue about the consequencesDanny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
It was never going to pass - but it might have been close.Richard_Nabavi said:Mind you, since the DUP were not on board, the Murrison amendment was dead anyway.
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Great work Agent Bercow. Two utterly nutty Hard Brexiter amendments selected to provide cover but neither Murrison or Swire which obscured matters rather than clarified - and helped the government. The whips shoukd have conceeded on Murrison earlier and got the head bangers to clear the order paper to head Bercow off.0
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You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
Whatever we need what we really don't need is a peoples vote campaign fronted by the same people who did such an inept job with the Remain campaign last time. Leaving the EU is a disaster in the making. However continuity remain are a pretty poor outfit.0
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Non adoption of the Mann amendment will put the small band of Labour leavers noses out of joint I think.
Does the Gov't simply say it won't lower standards now ? Will that be enough to get those few votes ?0 -
May should resign tonight and let Gove extend A50 and find a way out of this mess.
Wont happen of course.0 -
Because he thinks bollocks to brexit....Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:0 -
I very much doubt most of the nation will be watching.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonight is different. Most of the nation will be watching and if there is an open rebellion against Bercow it would be a disaster for politics, the nation, and of course Bercow himselfTGOHF said:
I think he showed last week he doesn't care a fig about MPs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He needs to allow all amendments or he risks mps openly defying him and causing chaosTGOHF said:
Yes - if Bercow allows it. He may not.DavidL said:
Is this the way through? If the ERG do likewise and May returns to Brussels saying that I can only get the WA through if there is a time limit on the backstop will they say yes? I think it would depend on the Irish but there seems to have been some real signs of panic there in the last couple of weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:Beth Rigby on Sky saying the DUP may back the Murrison amendment
I think that this is the amendment to watch.
For normal people, even the FA Cup replay between Blackburn and Newcastle probably holds more appeal.0 -
Bercow cannot up end the law no matter you may want him to.Danny565 said:
You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.
TM or a successor has to lay legislation to stop it0 -
The Speaker's job is to select which amendments are in order, effective and likely to command the support of the house. Most of the amendments were wrecking amendments, and wrecking amendments are never in order.
As for the Swire and Murrison amendments, they were both ineffective, as they tried to bind the EU to act in a certain way (which Parliament cannot do) or to attempt to redraft the WA to say something it does not (which directly contradicts the government's legal obligations and would therefore be unconscionable to do).
The Mann amendment was not selected due to lack of support in the house. After Labour, the ERG and the DUP all declined to support it, it would have been futile to put it to the house.
Once again, if the House finds fault with the way the Speaker selects amendments, they are welcome to move an early day motion and resolve that the house has no confidence in him and a new speaker would be elected.
But I think we all know the House would resolve it still very much has confidence in the Speaker.0 -
What's he going to do, forge May's signature on the revocation of A50?Danny565 said:
You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
pp it.Stereotomy said:
What's he going to do, forge May's signature on the revocation of A50?Danny565 said:
You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.0 -
We don't agree too often but I think that is a fair summarygrabcocque said:The Speaker's job is to select which amendments are in order, effective and likely to command the support of the house. Most of the amendments were wrecking amendments, and wrecking amendments are never in order.
As for the Swire and Murrison amendments, they were both ineffective, as they tried to bind the EU to act in a certain way (which Parliament cannot do) or to attempt to redraft the WA to say something it does not (which directly contradicts the government's legal obligations and would therefore be unconscionable to do).
The Mann amendment was not selected due to lack of support in the house. After Labour, the ERG and the DUP all declined to support it, it would have been futile to put it to the house.
Once again, if the House finds fault with the way the Speaker selects amendments, they are welcome to move and early day motion that the house has no confidence in him and a new speaker would be elected.
But I think we all know the House would resolve it still very much has confidence in the Speaker.0 -
Revoke Article 50 then invoke it again on Thursday.TheValiant said:Can I ask the wonks if I am reading tonight correctly:
Parliament has only four options left:
Remain (revoke); Deal; No Deal; Don't decide - Second referedum
Problem I see is:
Parliament have ruled out no deal.
Parliament are likely to rule out the deal.
The Government have ruled out a second referendum.
The Government have ruled out revoke Article 50.
So the only REAL options are:
[1] Change of government, to one which would be prepared to entertain either a second referendum or revoke.
[2] Change the deal, to one more acceptable to Parliament.
[1] Requires EITHER the Prime Minister to go (And she’s being a bloody difficult woman and refusing to resign); OR the Governing Party to go.
[2] Requires the EU to make some concessions, and they have consistently said the legal text cannot change.
The Prime Minister won’t resign, and she’s safe from internal party mechanisms for another 11 months now after December’s failed internal VoNC in her.
The Government can’t change because Labour don’t have enough Parliamentary support.
The Labour party can’t get a VoNC through Parliament.
Even if they do, all it does is force a General Election, which may not change the Parliamentary numbers at all (And it takes at least three weeks)
The EU won’t change the deal.
Are we completely and utterly screwed?
Two more years!0 -
Except he can. Until last week, people were saying Bercow "couldn't" allow the House of Commons to amend business motions....until he did.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bercow cannot up end the law no matter you may want him to.Danny565 said:
You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.
TM or a successor has to lay legislation to stop it
If the House of Commons votes for one of the alternative options to "No Deal" (most likely an Article 50 extension) then the government will have no choice but to comply with it. The only question is whether the Commons does vote for that alternative.0 -
Not acceptable to the ECJAnazina said:
Revoke Article 50 then invoke it again on Thursday.TheValiant said:Can I ask the wonks if I am reading tonight correctly:
Parliament has only four options left:
Remain (revoke); Deal; No Deal; Don't decide - Second referedum
Problem I see is:
Parliament have ruled out no deal.
Parliament are likely to rule out the deal.
The Government have ruled out a second referendum.
The Government have ruled out revoke Article 50.
So the only REAL options are:
[1] Change of government, to one which would be prepared to entertain either a second referendum or revoke.
[2] Change the deal, to one more acceptable to Parliament.
[1] Requires EITHER the Prime Minister to go (And she’s being a bloody difficult woman and refusing to resign); OR the Governing Party to go.
[2] Requires the EU to make some concessions, and they have consistently said the legal text cannot change.
The Prime Minister won’t resign, and she’s safe from internal party mechanisms for another 11 months now after December’s failed internal VoNC in her.
The Government can’t change because Labour don’t have enough Parliamentary support.
The Labour party can’t get a VoNC through Parliament.
Even if they do, all it does is force a General Election, which may not change the Parliamentary numbers at all (And it takes at least three weeks)
The EU won’t change the deal.
Are we completely and utterly screwed?
Two more years!0 -
Or the house votes to give time to a PMB which passes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bercow cannot up end the law no matter you may want him to.Danny565 said:
You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.
TM or a successor has to lay legislation to stop it0 -
Deleted0
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Great speech by Cox, utterly demolishing no deal0
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All of Parliament's procedures are drafted around the assumption that the government command the confidence of the house. A situation where the government has de jure but not de facto confidence is clearly putting huge amounts of strain on the normal procedures of the house.Stereotomy said:
What an incredibly stupid system we've created.TGOHF said:
He does what he wants.Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:0 -
My good lady has had enough of the nonsense and has disappeared into our snug and I can hear the strains of wonderful classical music
I am off to join her and the tv is on mute0 -
Not going to happenDanny565 said:
Except he can. Until last week, people were saying Bercow "couldn't" allow the House of Commons to amend business motions....until he did.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bercow cannot up end the law no matter you may want him to.Danny565 said:
You really think, after the events of the past week, that Bercow is going to allow the government to just ignore what a vote in the House of Commons says?Slackbladder said:
It doesn't have to pass the commons. It is a consquence, not a decision.Danny565 said:
And how does that "hard Brexit" pass through the Commons (in the vote which Bercow will make sure takes place)?TGOHF said:
Means May has nothing to go back to the EU with to get a deal that may pass parly.rottenborough said:
Bercow has ushered in a hard Brexit.
TM or a successor has to lay legislation to stop it
If the House of Commons votes for one of the alternative options to "No Deal" (most likely an Article 50 extension) then the government will have no choice but to comply with it. The only question is whether the Commons does vote for that alternative.0 -
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.
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His ego is telling him he has a chance to be the hero who stopped Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:
He can then end his career ‘on a high’.0 -
Yes, in a sense it is. Not to announce No Deal as the new policy - that remains the Deal - but to make it clear that her priority is that we leave the EU on the due date.Stereotomy said:The thing is that your version is a pivot of a sort, because it makes it very clear that she'll go for No Deal over A50 extension, revocation, 2nd ref, etc., That may force the hand of some Tory MPs to resign the whip, though I don't see it being enough to pass a vonc.
In an ideal world I bet she would like to get the MV question out to the public by referendum - a simple yes/no to ratification - but it seems unlikely that she would be allowed to do this.
Otherwise, I think that talking up No Deal as the alternative - and making MPs believe it - gives her the best chance of survival as PM and her Deal the best chance of ultimate success.
That is where I am as we speak, you and I, at 1.15 pm on Tuesday 15th January anyway.
By 2 o'clock? Who knows.0 -
I think that the position now is that no amendments will pass, which in turn means that no MPs will be able to switch to supporting the final motion on the basis that an amendment has dealt with their concerns. Therefore I think we are heading for the lower estimates of the number of Ayes for the motion, and so I've sold on SPIN at 218.
DYOR, you might lose your shirt, etc.0 -
Only if achieved without losing too many Tory moderates, which seems a tall order.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
Getting the ERG and DUP on board without alienating any Tory remainers.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.
May going to find another bag of magic unicorns behind the sofa?0 -
Not when you lose the Tory wets at the same time.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
Which is the way out of this mess.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not quite, because the Murrison amendment would have required the EU to change the WA.Stereotomy said:By the way, wouldn't the Leigh & Baron amendments have essentially the same effect as the Murrison amendment?
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I think she is pointing out that they are implacable.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.
Half the ERG at least just want No Deal now. They are beyond reason and away with the unicorns.0 -
To be fair, I think @grabcoque's post at 1.11pm gives a pretty persuasive rationale for Bercow's choices.Casino_Royale said:
His ego is telling him he has a chance to be the hero who stopped Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:
He can then end his career ‘on a high’.0 -
Quite. I was thinking this morning that even if the Tories eventually do decide they want to remove May to move things forward in one way or another, there is nothing they can do about it, unless she resigns voluntarily, they support Labour in a VONC (unlikely and still doesn't get rid of May as leader but removes her as PM, but presumably she is leader in the following election!) or they all refuse to work with her. Unless any of these three happen she can just stick to her guns, or am I missing something.TheValiant said:Can I ask the wonks if I am reading tonight correctly:
Parliament has only four options left:
Remain (revoke); Deal; No Deal; Don't decide - Second referedum
Problem I see is:
Parliament have ruled out no deal.
Parliament are likely to rule out the deal.
The Government have ruled out a second referendum.
The Government have ruled out revoke Article 50.
So the only REAL options are:
[1] Change of government, to one which would be prepared to entertain either a second referendum or revoke.
[2] Change the deal, to one more acceptable to Parliament.
[1] Requires EITHER the Prime Minister to go (And she’s being a bloody difficult woman and refusing to resign); OR the Governing Party to go.
[2] Requires the EU to make some concessions, and they have consistently said the legal text cannot change.
The Prime Minister won’t resign, and she’s safe from internal party mechanisms for another 11 months now after December’s failed internal VoNC in her.
The Government can’t change because Labour don’t have enough Parliamentary support.
The Labour party can’t get a VoNC through Parliament.
Even if they do, all it does is force a General Election, which may not change the Parliamentary numbers at all (And it takes at least three weeks)
The EU won’t change the deal.
Are we completely and utterly screwed?0 -
You mean all 5 of them?SandyRentool said:
Not when you lose the Tory wets at the same time.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
And you need a lesson in spelling!Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.
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So if voting starts at 7, four amendments to reject before the main vote, then it will be around 8:15 when we get the result.
We have a Labour branch meeting starting at 8:00. Hopefully someone will be following the news on their phone.0 -
There won't be any cross-party consensus.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
There's 5 of them in the cabinet!Mortimer said:
You mean all 5 of them?SandyRentool said:
Not when you lose the Tory wets at the same time.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
185 Tory MPs for Remain, and 128 for Leave. There's a lot more remainers on the payroll than leavers, for obvious reasons that leavers keep resigning, but if May suddenly tacked to Hard ERG the tide of resignations could quickly flow in the opposite direction.Mortimer said:
You mean all 5 of them?SandyRentool said:
Not when you lose the Tory wets at the same time.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?0 -
Cox is 50/1 to be next PM. Value to my mind given that he could be either an interim leader or a realistic candidate for the permanent job.IanB2 said:Great speech by Cox, utterly demolishing no deal
As always, the question with Con leadership elections is: how many people will vote to stop them? I could see Cox now getting enough initial support to make his campaign viable, and then being very transfer-friendly.0 -
Clearly you also need a lesson in maths.Mortimer said:
You mean all 5 of them?SandyRentool said:
Not when you lose the Tory wets at the same time.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
I couldn't agree more. There are so many people on here and elsewhere who bang on about how the "will of the people is this" or that.Anazina said:
I very much doubt most of the nation will be watching.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonight is different. Most of the nation will be watching and if there is an open rebellion against Bercow it would be a disaster for politics, the nation, and of course Bercow himselfTGOHF said:
I think he showed last week he doesn't care a fig about MPs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He needs to allow all amendments or he risks mps openly defying him and causing chaosTGOHF said:
Yes - if Bercow allows it. He may not.DavidL said:
Is this the way through? If the ERG do likewise and May returns to Brussels saying that I can only get the WA through if there is a time limit on the backstop will they say yes? I think it would depend on the Irish but there seems to have been some real signs of panic there in the last couple of weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:Beth Rigby on Sky saying the DUP may back the Murrison amendment
I think that this is the amendment to watch.
For normal people, even the FA Cup replay between Blackburn and Newcastle probably holds more appeal.
The genuine will of the people is that they don't give a shit unless it affects them directly. We could revoke A50 tomorrow and there would only be a tiny percentage of people who would get genuinely upset enough to try and do anything about it. The one strength about our system of "democracy" is that some people bother to vote, and they then accept that the people they have voted in will argue over the issues. The average voter is like the infamous Sun reader as described in "Yes Minister", or Brenda from Bristol. So, yes, the electorate voted, in a moment of insanity for Brexit. They then voted for a hung parliament to make it unlikely that it would be implemented0 -
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Its not. Corbyn wont allow it unless he ends up in No10 as a resultPulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?0 -
Pulpstar said:
I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Spot on.
Lucy P has been the most impressive of all MPs in recent times for this very reason.
It has made me look again at her as a possible leader.0 -
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?0 -
I’m now expecting 200-205 Ayes.Richard_Nabavi said:I think that the position now is that no amendments will pass, which in turn means that no MPs will be able to switch to supporting the final motion on the basis that an amendment has dealt with their concerns. Therefore I think we are heading for the lower estimates of the number of Ayes for the motion, and so I've sold on SPIN at 218.
DYOR, you might lose your shirt, etc.0 -
It's funny how quickly Cox's act has worn thin and now the emperor stands there completely naked.0
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I've been posting for a month how worried I was about the Benn amendment, so great news he's withdrawn it.
But the amendments selected are the cherry on the cake. No chance of Labour / SNPs passing, so just 2 Tory backbench motions about the UK withdrawing from their signed commitments if I've read them right.
Means that the Meaningful Vote really is - well done all concerned.0 -
It's the path the Gov't should probably take though. It isn't coming back with the same deal over and over - certainly satisfies the 3 day rule.... runs down the clock a bit moreSlackbladder said:
Its not. Corbyn wont allow it unless he ends up in No10 as a resultPulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
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Absolutely spot on.Nigel_Foremain said:
I couldn't agree more. There are so many people on here and elsewhere who bang on about how the "will of the people is this" or that.Anazina said:
I very much doubt most of the nation will be watching.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tonight is different. Most of the nation will be watching and if there is an open rebellion against Bercow it would be a disaster for politics, the nation, and of course Bercow himselfTGOHF said:
I think he showed last week he doesn't care a fig about MPs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He needs to allow all amendments or he risks mps openly defying him and causing chaosTGOHF said:
Yes - if Bercow allows it. He may not.DavidL said:
Is this the way through? If the ERG do likewise and May returns to Brussels saying that I can only get the WA through if there is a time limit on the backstop will they say yes? I think it would depend on the Irish but there seems to have been some real signs of panic there in the last couple of weeks.Big_G_NorthWales said:Beth Rigby on Sky saying the DUP may back the Murrison amendment
I think that this is the amendment to watch.
For normal people, even the FA Cup replay between Blackburn and Newcastle probably holds more appeal.
The genuine will of the people is that they don't give a shit unless it affects them directly. We could revoke A50 tomorrow and there would only be a tiny percentage of people who would get genuinely upset enough to try and do anything about it. The one strength about our system of "democracy" is that some people bother to vote, and they then accept that the people they have voted in will argue over the issues. The average voter is like the infamous Sun reader as described in "Yes Minister", or Brenda from Bristol. So, yes, the electorate voted, in a moment of insanity for Brexit. They then voted for a hung parliament to make it unlikely that it would be implemented0 -
Even if it were just five, which it isn’t, five would probably be enough.Mortimer said:
You mean all 5 of them?SandyRentool said:
Not when you lose the Tory wets at the same time.Mortimer said:
Lucy Powell leads a lesson in maths.rottenborough said:
Getting the ERG and DUP on board leads to a second vote passing.0 -
He's sugar coating it.grabcocque said:
If I was Attorney General I'd have been banned from the Commons for my language towards the ERG.0 -
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.0 -
Hmm, not sure. I think there is a fairly sizeable number of Labour MPs that would rather the Tories took the full blame for Brexit, and they hope against hope that Corbyn is replaced before they get a serious shot at power. Forlorn hope perhaps.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?0 -
Let's hope that anyone abstaining does so by not voting, rather than by voting in both lobbies!AlastairMeeks said:
I’m now expecting 200-205 Ayes.Richard_Nabavi said:I think that the position now is that no amendments will pass, which in turn means that no MPs will be able to switch to supporting the final motion on the basis that an amendment has dealt with their concerns. Therefore I think we are heading for the lower estimates of the number of Ayes for the motion, and so I've sold on SPIN at 218.
DYOR, you might lose your shirt, etc.0 -
I'm a Remainer but if I were the local Labour MP I'd be voting for May's agreement today. Politics is an art, not a game. Too many MPs are like kids in the playground.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
There's a bag-carrier whispering in May's ear. Now dashing away with instructions...0
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Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0 -
Just the Tory commentariat. Anyone listening to Labour / left folk 6 months ago would have realised how few Labour MPs were prepared to support the deal, even in principle. The Tories were blasé about Labour moderates not wanting to be in the same voting lobby as the ERG, or being too scared of no deal. Really naïve.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.0 -
That would effectively require a split of both parties to create 2 new parties. A good outcome, but highly unlikely.Anazina said:
Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0 -
Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
A gnu is the way forward!0 -
Yes, split in the Commons. They should go for it.Slackbladder said:
That would effectively require a split of both parties to create 2 new parties. A good outcome, but highly unlikely.Anazina said:
Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0 -
It won't happen. Labour want to be in government, with or without Corbyn.Anazina said:
Yes, split in the Commons. They should go for it.Slackbladder said:
That would effectively require a split of both parties to create 2 new parties. A good outcome, but highly unlikely.Anazina said:
Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0 -
We've all known white men like Geoffrey Cox. Who believe that simply saying everything in a BIG THEATRICAL VOICE is all you need, doesn't matter if the content is utter bollocks.
Basically all he does is pointing and shouting.
Wind your neck in Jeff mate, this act isn't fooling any fucker.0 -
So we're 70 odd days from when we're be able to torch the houses of Leavers for getting the UK into this mess.
So glad I'm not in the UK on Brexit day.0 -
On this occasion it really would be the strangest blooming animal in the zoo.Anazina said:Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
A gnu is the way forward!0 -
NPXMP called it a long time ago as up to six would vote for the deal. I see no reason to think that is underestimating the number.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.0 -
Brain Blessed made a career out of that and is a national treasure I'll have you know...grabcocque said:We've all known white men like Geoffrey Cox. Who believe that simply saying everything in a BIG THEATRICAL VOICE is all you need, doesn't matter if the content is utter bollocks.
0 -
It is true she ran a poor campaign for Ed Miliband, but that's clearly not where her strengths lie. I think she is a moderate, interesting MP, a good communicator – and a much better candidate for leader than perhaps first thought.Scott_P said:
Really?Anazina said:Spot on.
Lucy P has been the most impressive of all MPs in recent times for this very reason.
It has made me look again at her as a possible leader.
Her previous record makes Chris Grayling look competent0 -
Wish a GNU would happen, but while Corbyn is Labour/Momentum leader it will not happen, unless a coalition of the willing can be found from enough MPs on both sides that are willing to risk deselection. Ken Clark has the balls, but who else? I don't think there is the arithmetic that would make it work.Anazina said:
Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0 -
For now, yes.TOPPING said:
NPXMP called it a long time ago as up to six would vote for the deal. I see no reason to think that is underestimating the number.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
Question is: what do they do once all the other options have left the table and only Deal and No Deal remain?0 -
Brian Blessed for PM?FrancisUrquhart said:
Brain Blessed made a career out of that and is a national treasure I'll have you know...grabcocque said:We've all known white men like Geoffrey Cox. Who believe that simply saying everything in a BIG THEATRICAL VOICE is all you need, doesn't matter if the content is utter bollocks.
0 -
It's very easy playing with other people's jobs. It's a bit harder when it's your own on the line.Anazina said:
Yes, split in the Commons. They should go for it.Slackbladder said:
That would effectively require a split of both parties to create 2 new parties. A good outcome, but highly unlikely.Anazina said:
Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0 -
Hopefully everyone is stocked up on popcorn!0
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Ebay Netenyahu is never going to be leader.david_herdson said:
Cox is 50/1 to be next PM. Value to my mind given that he could be either an interim leader or a realistic candidate for the permanent job.IanB2 said:Great speech by Cox, utterly demolishing no deal
As always, the question with Con leadership elections is: how many people will vote to stop them? I could see Cox now getting enough initial support to make his campaign viable, and then being very transfer-friendly.0 -
https://twitter.com/reporterboy/status/1085167233205182466grabcocque said:
Brian Blessed for PM?FrancisUrquhart said:
Brain Blessed made a career out of that and is a national treasure I'll have you know...grabcocque said:We've all known white men like Geoffrey Cox. Who believe that simply saying everything in a BIG THEATRICAL VOICE is all you need, doesn't matter if the content is utter bollocks.
I didn't realize Brian Blessed was 82.0 -
I guess it would be no more ridiculous a proposition than Jeremy Corbyn!grabcocque said:
Brian Blessed for PM?FrancisUrquhart said:
Brain Blessed made a career out of that and is a national treasure I'll have you know...grabcocque said:We've all known white men like Geoffrey Cox. Who believe that simply saying everything in a BIG THEATRICAL VOICE is all you need, doesn't matter if the content is utter bollocks.
0 -
Only possibly a mass Cabinet revolt telling her she has to go or face numerous high-level resignations. Would be difficult to organise as they would be opposing her from differing sides, and, of course, they all have their eyes on the main prize, or a major promotion.kjh said:
Quite. I was thinking this morning that even if the Tories eventually do decide they want to remove May to move things forward in one way or another, there is nothing they can do about it, unless she resigns voluntarily, they support Labour in a VONC (unlikely and still doesn't get rid of May as leader but removes her as PM, but presumably she is leader in the following election!) or they all refuse to work with her. Unless any of these three happen she can just stick to her guns, or am I missing something.TheValiant said:Can I ask the wonks if I am reading tonight correctly:
Parliament has only four options left:
Remain (revoke); Deal; No Deal; Don't decide - Second referedum
Problem I see is:
Parliament have ruled out no deal.
Parliament are likely to rule out the deal.
The Government have ruled out a second referendum.
The Government have ruled out revoke Article 50.
So the only REAL options are:
[1] Change of government, to one which would be prepared to entertain either a second referendum or revoke.
[2] Change the deal, to one more acceptable to Parliament.
[1] Requires EITHER the Prime Minister to go (And she’s being a bloody difficult woman and refusing to resign); OR the Governing Party to go.
[2] Requires the EU to make some concessions, and they have consistently said the legal text cannot change.
The Prime Minister won’t resign, and she’s safe from internal party mechanisms for another 11 months now after December’s failed internal VoNC in her.
The Government can’t change because Labour don’t have enough Parliamentary support.
The Labour party can’t get a VoNC through Parliament.
Even if they do, all it does is force a General Election, which may not change the Parliamentary numbers at all (And it takes at least three weeks)
The EU won’t change the deal.
Are we completely and utterly screwed?0 -
It would be a darned sight less strange that the freak show of weirdos, crackpots, and whack-jobs that currently compose the frontbenches.AlastairMeeks said:
On this occasion it really would be the strangest blooming animal in the zoo.Anazina said:Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
A gnu is the way forward!0 -
It really is again for May a case of I wouldn't have started from here. Had May at the outset sought to involve Lab then although they may (perhaps ought to) have told her where to stick it, their cover for not voting for the deal now would be a lot less as she could appeal to her attempts at cross-party consensus, rejected at the time.david_herdson said:
For now, yes.TOPPING said:
NPXMP called it a long time ago as up to six would vote for the deal. I see no reason to think that is underestimating the number.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
Question is: what do they do once all the other options have left the table and only Deal and No Deal remain?0 -
Mother****** of Parliaments.Stereotomy said:
What an incredibly stupid system we've created.TGOHF said:
He does what he wants.Richard_Nabavi said:
How the hell did he reach that decision?Scott_P said:0 -
The 1922 could change the election rules. They could add a proviso that no PM can be challenged within 12 months of a VONC "unless the postbox receives letters for a VONC from 25% of the Parliamentary Party". For example.kjh said:
Quite. I was thinking this morning that even if the Tories eventually do decide they want to remove May to move things forward in one way or another, there is nothing they can do about it, unless she resigns voluntarily, they support Labour in a VONC (unlikely and still doesn't get rid of May as leader but removes her as PM, but presumably she is leader in the following election!) or they all refuse to work with her. Unless any of these three happen she can just stick to her guns, or am I missing something.TheValiant said:Can I ask the wonks if I am reading tonight correctly:
Parliament has only four options left:
Remain (revoke); Deal; No Deal; Don't decide - Second referedum
Problem I see is:
Parliament have ruled out no deal.
Parliament are likely to rule out the deal.
The Government have ruled out a second referendum.
The Government have ruled out revoke Article 50.
So the only REAL options are:
[1] Change of government, to one which would be prepared to entertain either a second referendum or revoke.
[2] Change the deal, to one more acceptable to Parliament.
[1] Requires EITHER the Prime Minister to go (And she’s being a bloody difficult woman and refusing to resign); OR the Governing Party to go.
[2] Requires the EU to make some concessions, and they have consistently said the legal text cannot change.
The Prime Minister won’t resign, and she’s safe from internal party mechanisms for another 11 months now after December’s failed internal VoNC in her.
The Government can’t change because Labour don’t have enough Parliamentary support.
The Labour party can’t get a VoNC through Parliament.
Even if they do, all it does is force a General Election, which may not change the Parliamentary numbers at all (And it takes at least three weeks)
The EU won’t change the deal.
Are we completely and utterly screwed?0 -
Backbone of empire. And indeed of my golf club. Sort of chaps who tend to mispronounce difficult names and are not remotely embarrassed by it.grabcocque said:We've all known white men like Geoffrey Cox. Who believe that simply saying everything in a BIG THEATRICAL VOICE is all you need, doesn't matter if the content is utter bollocks.
0 -
Sadly, too true. It is a very good argument for members of the legislature having a limitation on the number of times they can stand. That would have put pay to Mr Thicky ever having become Labour leaderdavid_herdson said:
It's very easy playing with other people's jobs. It's a bit harder when it's your own on the line.Anazina said:
Yes, split in the Commons. They should go for it.Slackbladder said:
That would effectively require a split of both parties to create 2 new parties. A good outcome, but highly unlikely.Anazina said:
Nobody is proposing propping up May – she is now done as she herself no doubt knows.grabcocque said:
The professional commentariat have been STUNNED to find this large group of Labour MPs they promised would be willing to commit career suicide to rush to the defence of a doomed Tory prime has utterly failed to materialise.Sean_F said:
10 maybe. Labour want a general election. They don't want to reach agreement with the government.Pulpstar said:I think Lucy Powell's proposal to reach across the house is sensible actually - better than no deal or no Brexit nonsense perpetuated by plenty of others.
With the DUP and ERG's wishes clearly incompatible to an agreement with the EU it is an avenue worth persuing.
How many Labour backbenchers can she bring along ?
Tells you all you need to know about how little the professional commentariat understand about anything.
A cross-party GNU would do the trick, without either the hopeless May or the useless Corbyn as leader. A Tory moderate might fit the bill – perhaps Grieve with several Labour higher-ups in the cabinet.0
