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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive has less control over proceedings of the elected House
Like many I’ve often been irritated by John Bercow particularly at the lengthy interjections he likes to make at PMQs which can appear like grandstanding.
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Typo: Kowtow. I think cow-tow is to do with stuck-in-the-mud tractors ;-)
Thanks for the leader, Mike. Personally I think Bercow should have followed a more sensible policy on bosses credibly accused of bullying; he brings the whole place into disrepute. He should have been suspended as happens to normal abusive bosses whilst being investigated.
https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1085009675744145408
I don't mind the 4.2 for the 2020 nomination, if they want to win, it's her or Joe; she has generational change on her side. I'm going to have a bit of that.
Can you imagine May doing this? She'd probably pick the theme tune from the Antiques Roadshow for every category and then later lie about it.
.....with Rasmussen.
https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1074484167591780353
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/14/donald-trump-orders-fast-food-white-house-clemson-football
Bedford Behemoth Bolsters Bercow Brilliantly.
No cheques thanks Mike ...
I distinctly remember someone at work telling me why he voted Leave immediately after the referendum was held: "If we'd voted to stay in, we'd have been in the Euro within ten years, and our Parliament would've been abolished within twenty." For the record, the person concerned was a typical, non-politically active voter in his thirties. Not a Tory, or a bigot, or a 'gammon,' or 'low-information,' or any of the other silly little stereotypical groups into which some people have been trying to force half the electorate for the past two-an-a-half years.
Given what we've seen since - that most MPs appear not to want to leave the EU, and a great many say as much explicitly, that they worry acutely about loss of influence if not engaged with its projects, and that further integration appears to be the only long-term solution to resolving the problems of the Euro - I don't think that these were wholly unreasonable concerns to harbour. Certainly, if we do end up staying in the EU at the end of all of this then I don't think it'll be too many more years before a lot of politicians start pointing to the Eurocore and saying 'That's where all the decisions are being made now, if we want our say we have to join.'
As for some great expansion in the use of direct democracy, that would be a grave error. There's no point in having referendums over anything contentious, because the risk is that Parliament will simply overturn any result that it can't live with, with corrosive consequences. The campaigns themselves are divisive and nasty. They also involve elected representatives - whose job it is to spend all their working days analysing and finding solutions to difficult political problems - palming their work off on voters who receive neither the time not the recompense to be poring over international treaties, criminal sentencing policy, macroeconomics and God alone knows what else every five minutes.
One can advance a cogent argument for root-and-branch reform of the political system, but I don't think that a constant diet of referendums is the way forward. Letting well-paid politicians sit on their fat arses whilst we make all the hard choices for them really isn't on.
May’s total lack of collegiality and communication certainly created an exclusion vacuum and, over the last two years, both sides have huddled in their comfort groups and tacked to the extremes.
Social media has a big part to play in this, as it filters through the shriller views of those you already agree with, but it doesn’t really explain the density and ignorance of ex-ministers who were supposedly at the heart of Government.
For the vast majority of MP's there is/was no deal, short of remaining, that would satisfy them so there would never have been a consensus.
And even if we believe in the political fairies for a moment and parliament had agreed a shopping list to take to the EU what would have happened when the inevitable push back from Barnier meant the desired deal couldn't be accommodated?
It's a frankly ludicrous idea and one that is in no way grounded in the reality of the situation.
I genuinely cannot understand why anyone who took the trouble to read anything more about the EU than the headlines in the Mail or the Sun, can say this, any more, quite frankly, than I can understand someone saying that the earth is flat.
I've no problem with our Parliament being reformed within twenty years, but since every other EU member has some similar sort of representative democratic body, why on earth shouldn't we have.
What this comment does demonstrate is the failure of those of us who believe in the European project to communicate our optimism to our neighbours.
An honourable PM would resign in time for the 10 o'clock news.
OTOH if we are to avoid an elected dictatorship there must be opportunities for the opposition to be heard, to make the alternative case and, most importantly, to hold the government of the day to account. It is the only way of keeping the incompetence within normal bounds.
Since becoming PM May has treated Parliament with contempt. She has not engaged opposition day motions simply ignoring the results. She has tried to hide what she is doing in the Brexit negotiations from her own cabinet and DexEU Secretaries, let alone the Commons. She has not led. She has made no attempt to persuade or to build a consensus for the best part of 2 years. When she realised, finally, that she had to make her case the contempt continued seeking to use procedure to limit the scope of debate and options.
It is right that Bercow, any Speaker, should kick back against that. She has diminished Parliament and tried to make it less relevant. Tonight, finally, she will pay the price for that contempt. If she is still PM tomorrow it will be in a caretaker capacity. Her premiership will be amongst the most lamentable of modern times.
Did Bercow respond in the right way? Probably not. But 21 days for another go and due consideration would have been reasonable if the MV had been in December. In mid to late January 3 days may have to do. Too bad.
People are entitled to feel let down and lied to if they don't
Haven’t listened ... is Kamala Chameleon in there ?
http://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085078079511453699
This moves it on from “we don’t like Theresa May’s Brexit deal” to “we don’t like Theresa May and all her works”. It’s almost vindictive... even though I fully agree with the proposal.
The way it has unfolded isn’t ideal, but it has either to be done in haste, or not at all.
The constitutional innovations should have few repercussions for a government with a stable majority - and given the existence of the FTPA, it seems right that there be some brake on the executive excercising its extra-parliamentary powers during a period of minority government.
317 Conservative MPs.
262 Labour MPs
10 DUP MPs
589 out of 650. Elected on manifestos pledging to implement Brexit. No ifs, no buts. Brexit.
And they somehow have got themselves into a groupthink that voters won't wreak a horrible revenge at the next election.....
https://twitter.com/turnbullmalcolm/status/1084915377505677317?s=21
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-kamala-and-beto-have-more-upside-than-joe-and-bernie/
I have, although it doesn't consider the "Do they sound like a dyslexic person named a chocolate bar" angle.
It just seems quite a leap of logic from that to revoke, which is what the majority of the Commons is clearly trying to do.
I was wondering if the Lib Dems coming third and losing a number of seats could be taken as a similar sign that democratically they were correct to abandon the tuition fees pledge.
Of course, the consequences were unfortunate...
Oh, you mean 'wasted' as in, 'not being used to full effectiveness?'
If anyone's interested I could do a very betting-ish thing on crypto-economic betting platforms like Augur and Gnosis.
Remainers have become utterly unhinged.
I’m sure this will be popular.
I wonder what will be leading the news tonight...
Saint Bob
Funkadelic
A Tribe Called Quest
Too Short
Queen B
Salt-n-Pepa
The selection was scrupulously hip with a populist twist.
I still think Brexit is the Browne Report of today, although while Boris may be a serial liar and fornicator he hasn't so far as I know committed perjury to hide his penchant for cottaging.
Have a good morning.
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1084927547643781120?s=19
Though I also have 340+ at 110 in case of a dramatic late intervention that gets the opposition onside.
It's a very strange thing to have done both for her legacy and her party. Her reputation had become enhanced over the last few months and she she's now trashed it.
Assuming that you personally are the font of all wisdom and others are less able to judge situations is dictatorial, or have I missed something? The hard-left can be forgiven because they have always believed their policies are perfect, but liberals? Really?
It's been an eye-opener if nothing else.
Force Labour to expose their position.
For those who missed it, a repost from yesterday:
"And so, here is Morris Dancer's Roman defeat-o-meter for May's deal (emphasis on the tactical, not strategic, defeat):
Catalaunian Plains - shock victory against the odds - any majority at all for the deal
Teutoberg Forest - majority of 50 against May's deal
Adrianople - majority of 75 against May's deal
Lake Trasimene - majority of 100 against May's deal
Arausio - majority of 125 against May's deal
Carrhae - majority of 150 against May's deal
Cannae - annihilation, woe, doom, despair - majority of 175 against May's deal
Allia - Rome falls - majority of 200+ against May's deal
[NB Caudine Forks may apply if the PM instantly resigns due to the scale of humiliation]."
Lib Dem leaflet says 'it's too close to call'.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
The other uncommitted Conservative MPs I have are:
Adam Afriyie Windsor
Bob Blackman Harrow East
Graham Brady Altrincham and Sale West
Jack Brereton Stoke-on-Trent South
Kevin Foster Torbay
Eddie Hughes Walsall North
Ian Liddell-Grainger Bridgwater and West Somerset
Jonathan Lord Woking
Alan Mak Havant
Daniel Poulter Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Tom Pursglove Corby
Keith Simpson Broadland
Julian Sturdy York Outer
Till now I'd expected Theresa May would pick up substantially all of these. Now I expect she'll lose more than half.
Anybody think Labour REALLY wants an election that leaves them implementing Brexit though? It would be the ultimate "good election to lose"......
you should add Manzikert to that
it's like Cannae but theyve kicked the can down the road for several hundred years first
You’d need some primary legislation to replace/supercede the FTPA.
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187054320/EU-Bruessel-will-das-Veto-Recht-bei-Steuerfragen-kippen.html
52% of people two and a half years ago voted to 'Leave', now that we know what 'Leave' means in detail it appears that some have changed their minds. Also there are many new voters, those that will be most affected, let them have a voice.
Unfortunately in 2017 many stood on the manifesto without having any real intention of honouring it.
Democratically shameful in all honesty.