I think a good market would be "Will this vote break the record for a government defeat?" I'd say it's 50-50 either way, despite all the predictions of a 200+ majority.
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.
Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.
which way?
Selling.
Now down to 215-223.
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.
Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.
which way?
Selling.
Now down to 215-223.
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.
Guess we're too good for them. :-)
I wouldn't mind but their practical exposure is far less than ours, even with a 100 point stop loss. There always remains the outside possibility of a coup de theatre, but just shy of 200 MPs have given a clear steer that they're going to back the deal. This is not a bet to get rich on.
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th. 2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified. 3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar. 4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon. 5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension. 6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again. 7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum. 8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain. 9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?
I think it's more that Starmer is having to second guess his leader and genuinely does not know what Milne, McDonnell, McCluskey and Murray will tell Corbyn to do.
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th. 2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified. 3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar. 4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon. 5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension. 6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again. 7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum. 8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain. 9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?
On R4 he said it would be tabled when Jeremy decided but implied strongly that this would be pretty soon after this evenings vote.
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th. 2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified. 3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar. 4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon. 5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension. 6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again. 7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum. 8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain. 9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?
I think it's more that Starmer is having to second guess his leader and genuinely does not know what Milne, McDonnell, McCluskey and Murray will tell Corbyn to do.
Oh yes, the disconnect was evident. I'm amazed that anyone who is not one of the Gang of Five (plus Diane) ever gets onto the airways now.
Extending Article 50, or suspended it, is not a solution in itself. The options are still, Leave with no deal, Leave with a deal, Remain.
Maybe she'll go for a referendum, and manage to split both major parties.
Extending A50 only makes sense if we get rid of May and give someone else a go at the negotiation.
The only deal that can pass is either a) softer Brexit or b) includes a promise of a referendum with remain on the ballot or c) both.
Or d) a deal without a backstop.
You may argue that isn't available but it could.be if someone else has a go at the negotiations and the numbers are there to pass that.
Clear to me that's not on offer. But even if it was, I think there would be enough Tory rebels to stop it from passing.
Edit: 326 - 8 Tory MPs who have backed a second vote, and already she can't get the vote through. That's not including the various MPs who have concerns other than the backstop.
She needed a deal that could get some Labour support.
She can cope with 8 rebels she can't cope with one hundred. Without a backstop the DUP would be on board, plus Field the Lib Dem who backs the deal etc would be enough to see it over the line.
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th. 2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified. 3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar. 4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon. 5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension. 6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again. 7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum. 8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain. 9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?
I think it's more that Starmer is having to second guess his leader and genuinely does not know what Milne, McDonnell, McCluskey and Murray will tell Corbyn to do.
Oh yes, the disconnect was evident. I'm amazed that anyone who is not one of the Gang of Five (plus Diane) ever gets onto the airways now.
Starmer is very rarely allowed onto the airwaves. The Labour leadership prefers to send out the ludicrous Burgon and Gardiner to do the Brexit interviews. I wonder if Starmer has been freelancing today.
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling. Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
Is he not referring to the IRA and not the UVF? He is contrasting bureaucrats with the terrorists of the past (IRA) not putting himself on side of terrorists.
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,
I don't see how Melenchon gets ahead of Le Pen in Round One or ahead of Macron in a run-off.
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling. Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.
French letters are not meant to be read....
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)
The truth of course is that we have a parliament with a majority of MP's who never intended to implement the will of the people if their verdict wasn't remain.
Most of the people who will vote against the implementing the will of the people tonight are Brexiteers
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,
Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.
which way?
Selling.
Now down to 215-223.
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.
Guess we're too good for them. :-)
Politics is an area where insiders often pretty much KNOW what will happen, so caution is understandable. In this case nobody has a clue, so they could be more relaxed.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,
I don't see how Melenchon gets ahead of Le Pen in Round One or ahead of Macron in a run-off.
events, He has been much closers to LePen in the past, then lost it. The wide range of parties in France means anyone getting near 20% is in with a shout. the RN for example regularly has bust ups and splits, LePens achievement has been keeping most of the cats herded in the same direction.
Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.
Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
I'm not sure T May would be happy with no deal. She's risk averse to her fingertips. We shall see.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Thesesa May has chosen to lose her status as an honest broker and has become instead an evangelist for Brexit with the zeal of a new convert.
It's a very strange thing to have done both for her legacy and her party. Her reputation had become enhanced over the last few months and she she's now trashed it.
Just like remain and democracy.
Not true. Leave was never going to be a one word answer and the problem is that it's taken us two years to understand this. Perhaps we had to go through this process to realise what membership of the EU was. It's not and never has been what the SUN has been peddling. Bendy bananas benefit scroungers and a way for terrorists to flout the law. And now people have more understanding we should vote again.
Roger
I feel so utterly let down by you
today the we have social media letting fly on the Gillette advert and not a word from you.
youre too involved in Brexit wrangling to see whats happening in the real world.
You can take the man out of Hartlepool ........
Sorry I was travelling yesterday looking for some inspiration to pass onto you for your next header "The inevitable collapse of the EU." The bad news is that the sun is shining and there doesn't seem to be a cloud in the sky (I've even seen some smiling faces!). I thought I might have seen a gilet Jaune in Nice but it turned out to be a yellow Armani jacket.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?
Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.
which way?
Selling.
Now down to 215-223.
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.
Guess we're too good for them. :-)
Politics is an area where insiders often pretty much KNOW what will happen, so caution is understandable. In this case nobody has a clue, so they could be more relaxed.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?
Please refer to my previous post. You may be sure that there will not be a no deal.
Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.
On wine, as a teetotaler I know nothing - but the Good Lady Wifi say that the M&S Japanese 2016 Sol Lucet Koshu Kurambon Wine is immensely quaffable.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling. Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.
French letters are not meant to be read....
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)
You might poke fun but If it wasn't for the likes of me you wouldn't have a clue what toilet paper is the most absorbent
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
The truth of course is that we have a parliament with a majority of MP's who never intended to implement the will of the people if their verdict wasn't remain.
Most of the people who will vote against the implementing the will of the people tonight are Brexiteers
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
German debt to GDP ratio is over 64%. A lot higher than ours was before Brown's crash.
Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?
I have no idea what will happen - but I just don't see how the Commons can get to a position where No Deal is avoided if May's deal does not go through.
Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.
On wine, as a teetotaler I know nothing - but the Good Lady Wifi say that the M&S Japanese 2016 Sol Lucet Koshu Kurambon Wine is immensely quaffable.
Tried some Japanese wine at our Wine Group some time ago. Quaffable it wasn't!, as I recall.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling. Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.
French letters are not meant to be read....
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)
You might poke fun but If it wasn't for the likes of me you wouldn't have a clue what toilet paper is the most absorbent
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Just checked. To get there from London it's go to Newcastle and get a TransPennine.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Possibly enough of the trains don't stop? Its wildly more unpredictable than the preceding event, that is for sure.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.
I'm not an SJW and I think it's good. Be a positive role model.
Well, there's nowt wrong with the message, but Gillette should be advertising to sell razors.
I must be the only one on Earth who has no opinion on this. Who cares? They can advertise any way they like with reason and the law, whether it works or not is another (and much more interesting) question.
Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?
Please refer to my previous post. You may be sure that there will not be a no deal.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling. Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.
French letters are not meant to be read....
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)
You might poke fun but If it wasn't for the likes of me you wouldn't have a clue what toilet paper is the most absorbent
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
It could scupper your bet if this amendment passes - makes the Gov't defeat much less heavy.
If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
It could scupper your bet if this amendment passes - makes the Gov't defeat much less heavy.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...
When did you drop the G from the start of your name?
The expertise contained within these pixilated four walls never ceases to astonish.....
If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.
Yes the irony is that in trying to minimise the extent to which there will be alignment between the EU and GB&NI, they may end up with more alignment than is currently contained in the WA.
If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.
If that was the plan the vote could have been held in December and discussed then - so going back to Europe to remove the backstop can't be the plan...
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.
Morning all. Big big day! And how is this for commitment? My MP, Tulip Sadiq, has delayed giving birth in order to vote ‘No’. That is how eager she is to reject an orderly exit from the European Union on time and in accordance with the 2016 referendum. She is clearly far from alone in that sentiment. It does appear that the fact of defeat is certain, only the margin is a suitable topic of debate, on which btw I note no market from the pussies at Sporting Index, and of course what Plan B is going to be.
A word of caution from me, however, to those heavily invested, financially or emotionally, in there NOT being a smooth and timely exit from the EU. Consider the example of that other big ‘EU’ vote, one of my favourite events of the year, the Eurovision Song Contest. When that comes around all people of sound mind and good character are aware that it is a MASSIVE advantage to be the final act up. Why? Because your contribution is freshest in the minds of the electorate when they vote. So long as your contribution is strong you have an excellent chance of winning.
So who has the golden position in the MV debate? Who is slated to wind up? It’s a certain Theresa May, our Prime Minister, and what Eurovision teaches is that she can swing it if her speech is so powerful that it blows the House down. That is therefore the challenge for Mrs May. She needs to be Abba’s ‘Waterloo’ rather than, as has sadly been the case with her thus far, Gina G’s ‘Ooh Aah Just A Little Bit’. Can she deliver? Unlikely, but the possibility that she can, and hence the prospect of a negotiated exit from the EU on time and on budget and in accordance with the 2016 referendum, should not be discounted entirely.
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...
Where's Sunil when he's needed?
Working - I'm wrong btw there is a 2 hourly service from Transpenine express (it seems to stop at Chester-le-street rather than Darlington). Regardless of that the service is awful, you can go North in the morning to get to Newcastle but woe betide you if you miss the 18:15 going home.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
It could scupper your bet if this amendment passes - makes the Gov't defeat much less heavy.
I think this is a key point - the final tally will depend on what amendments have been passed.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.
"There is a way out, Angela....."
I think that these soft Brexiteer amendments are the key metric to watch tonight.
The number of switchers who vote down May's deal but support these amendments (assuming Bercow allows them to proceed to vote) could show the most likely way forward.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais back
personally I can do without it
Also, Calais would have to be turned into a fortress to keep the migrant hordes at bay as effectively as 21 miles of water.....
Of course what the Withdrawal Act and now the Grieve amendment require is a statement from a minister about what they intend to do next. It is possible, I suppose, that that statement will amount to, well, we will have another chat with the EU, see what we get and try again.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais back
personally I can do without it
I joked about that to some french Colleagues last week. Turns out neither us nor them actually want it...
Spent last weekend in Munich with a friend who is being transferred to China to run Siemens / Bosch design there. Had a leaving dinner with 20 or so German business people. They have lost interest in Brexit and it is not a big concern for them. They are more worried about China / USA fight and technology shifts. Bosch employs 400,000 staff worldwide of which 1% are in the UK. There is a lot of angst about immigrants and they are pleased Merkel is going.
The UK is kidding itself if they think the Germans are going to save us. They like us but in the end they are more worried about their own problems.
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais back
personally I can do without it
Aquitaine and Gascony on the other hand ..............
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais back
personally I can do without it
I joked about that to some french Colleagues last week. Turns out neither us nor them actually want it...
Of course what the Withdrawal Act and now the Grieve amendment require is a statement from a minister about what they intend to do next. It is possible, I suppose, that that statement will amount to, well, we will have another chat with the EU, see what we get and try again.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.
What's the worst that happens if May stands up and effectively says "nothing has changed"? Her Government gets held in contempt of Parliament? Again?
Of course what the Withdrawal Act and now the Grieve amendment require is a statement from a minister about what they intend to do next. It is possible, I suppose, that that statement will amount to, well, we will have another chat with the EU, see what we get and try again.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.
No, the Grieve amendment specifies more than just a statement, there has to be a motion tabled within three days (and that motion can, I think, be amended). So parliament will have the opportunity to actually decide something, should it so wish.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.
"There is a way out, Angela....."
The amendment is an opportunity for MPs to vote for a No Deal Brexit, nothing more.
If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.
If that was the plan the vote could have been held in December and discussed then - so going back to Europe to remove the backstop can't be the plan...
They are stupid enough for it to be the plan though. They don't know the difference between their arse and their elbow
Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.
On wine, as a teetotaler I know nothing - but the Good Lady Wifi say that the M&S Japanese 2016 Sol Lucet Koshu Kurambon Wine is immensely quaffable.
Mark, have you never drunk or is being teetotal a decision you made later in life?
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
This amendment makes absolutely no sense to me. Can someone explain it?
Spent last weekend in Munich with a friend who is being transferred to China to run Siemens / Bosch design there. Had a leaving dinner with 20 or so German business people. They have lost interest in Brexit and it is not a big concern for them. They are more worried about China / USA fight and technology shifts. Bosch employs 400,000 staff worldwide of which 1% are in the UK. There is a lot of angst about immigrants and they are pleased Merkel is going.
The UK is kidding itself if they think the Germans are going to save us. They like us but in the end they are more worried about their own problems.
thats been the state of affairs for the last year or so. Other countries have bigger fish to fry its only the Brits who think Brexit is the top of the worlds agenda. its now somewhere between of passing interest and just get on with it,.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.
"There is a way out, Angela....."
The amendment is an opportunity for MPs to vote for a No Deal Brexit, nothing more.
It is an opportunity for MPs to highlight that there is a particular aspect of the current deal that is preventing them from supporting it.
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
That's interesting.
I was impressed by Julian Sturdy's logic in the debate last night. He opposes No Deal, opposes a Second Referendum, and cannot therefore support the WA.
Comments
“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.” – Michael Gove, April 2016.
Guess we're too good for them. :-)
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/1084962751087341569
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
.....
That sounds odd.
you have single handedly created fatbergs !
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Just checked. To get there from London it's go to Newcastle and get a TransPennine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chathill_railway_station
"Although it is on the main line, the station is served by just two arrivals and departures per day, Mondays to Saturdays only"
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
EDIT: Not one of yours then?
http://wisewebwoman.blogspot.com/2013/10/leather-arse-or-how-i-survived-izal.html
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.
"There is a way out, Angela....."
The expertise contained within these pixilated four walls never ceases to astonish.....
personally I can do without it
A word of caution from me, however, to those heavily invested, financially or emotionally, in there NOT being a smooth and timely exit from the EU. Consider the example of that other big ‘EU’ vote, one of my favourite events of the year, the Eurovision Song Contest. When that comes around all people of sound mind and good character are aware that it is a MASSIVE advantage to be the final act up. Why? Because your contribution is freshest in the minds of the electorate when they vote. So long as your contribution is strong you have an excellent chance of winning.
So who has the golden position in the MV debate? Who is slated to wind up? It’s a certain Theresa May, our Prime Minister, and what Eurovision teaches is that she can swing it if her speech is so powerful that it blows the House down. That is therefore the challenge for Mrs May. She needs to be Abba’s ‘Waterloo’ rather than, as has sadly been the case with her thus far, Gina G’s ‘Ooh Aah Just A Little Bit’. Can she deliver? Unlikely, but the possibility that she can, and hence the prospect of a negotiated exit from the EU on time and on budget and in accordance with the 2016 referendum, should not be discounted entirely.
Regardless of that the service is awful, you can go North in the morning to get to Newcastle but woe betide you if you miss the 18:15 going home.
The number of switchers who vote down May's deal but support these amendments (assuming Bercow allows them to proceed to vote) could show the most likely way forward.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.
Too busy with the allotment.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1085104373443805184
They have lost interest in Brexit and it is not a big concern for them. They are more worried about China / USA fight and technology shifts. Bosch employs 400,000 staff worldwide of which 1% are in the UK. There is a lot of angst about immigrants and they are pleased Merkel is going.
The UK is kidding itself if they think the Germans are going to save us. They like us but in the end they are more worried about their own problems.
https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1085121753729388544
EU blinking?
I was impressed by Julian Sturdy's logic in the debate last night. He opposes No Deal, opposes a Second Referendum, and cannot therefore support the WA.
Major knew he was going to lose and lose big as does May but they both couldn't and cant say anything.
The numbers will be almost identical 165 Tory vs around 418 lab
Led to complete meltdown for 9 years in Tory party..we could be heading there again.