politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive ha
Comments
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I'm not an SJW and I think it's good. Be a positive role model.Dadge said:
Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.FrancisUrquhart said:Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-468746170 -
I think a good market would be "Will this vote break the record for a government defeat?" I'd say it's 50-50 either way, despite all the predictions of a 200+ majority.0
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What a bellend he is .......... thick as minceScott_P said:
“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.” – Michael Gove, April 2016.0 -
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.Alanbrooke said:
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.SouthamObserver said:The Gilets certainly seem to be losing support - which is no surprise given their recent antics.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-pres-d-un-francais-sur-deux-souhaite-desormais-l-arret-du-mouvement_3138621.html
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
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I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.AlastairMeeks said:
Now down to 215-223.AlastairMeeks said:
Selling.TheWhiteRabbit said:
which way?AlastairMeeks said:
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.trawl said:Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
Guess we're too good for them. :-)0 -
I'd argue that is entirely consistent with May having folded the cards and chosen the wrong path but he is standing by her.malcolmg said:
What a bellend he is .......... thick as minceScott_P said:
“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.” – Michael Gove, April 2016.0 -
In a world gone weird, Sammy Wilson becoming a go to talking head for the media is one of the weirder aspects.
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/10849627510873415690 -
Shows what a moron he and the other leavers are that they couldn't work out that this was a high probability event.Philip_Thompson said:
I'd argue that is entirely consistent with May having folded the cards and chosen the wrong path but he is standing by her.malcolmg said:
What a bellend he is .......... thick as minceScott_P said:
“The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.” – Michael Gove, April 2016.0 -
Mr. Dadge, quite. The Youtube video ratio is reminiscent of the Ghostbusters trailer.0
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I wouldn't mind but their practical exposure is far less than ours, even with a 100 point stop loss. There always remains the outside possibility of a coup de theatre, but just shy of 200 MPs have given a clear steer that they're going to back the deal. This is not a bet to get rich on.Peter_the_Punter said:
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.AlastairMeeks said:
Now down to 215-223.AlastairMeeks said:
Selling.TheWhiteRabbit said:
which way?AlastairMeeks said:
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.trawl said:Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
Guess we're too good for them. :-)0 -
I believe we aren’t allowed to say that the ghostbusters reboot was an utter pile of shit because that is sexist and racist.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dadge, quite. The Youtube video ratio is reminiscent of the Ghostbusters trailer.
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On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,SouthamObserver said:
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.Alanbrooke said:
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.SouthamObserver said:The Gilets certainly seem to be losing support - which is no surprise given their recent antics.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-pres-d-un-francais-sur-deux-souhaite-desormais-l-arret-du-mouvement_3138621.html
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.0 -
I think it's more that Starmer is having to second guess his leader and genuinely does not know what Milne, McDonnell, McCluskey and Murray will tell Corbyn to do.TOPPING said:
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?IanB2 said:
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.TOPPING said:A brief review to set us up for the day:
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th.
2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified.
3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar.
4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon.
5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension.
6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again.
7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum.
8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain.
9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...
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On R4 he said it would be tabled when Jeremy decided but implied strongly that this would be pretty soon after this evenings vote.TOPPING said:
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?IanB2 said:
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.TOPPING said:A brief review to set us up for the day:
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th.
2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified.
3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar.
4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon.
5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension.
6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again.
7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum.
8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain.
9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...0 -
Oh yes, the disconnect was evident. I'm amazed that anyone who is not one of the Gang of Five (plus Diane) ever gets onto the airways now.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's more that Starmer is having to second guess his leader and genuinely does not know what Milne, McDonnell, McCluskey and Murray will tell Corbyn to do.TOPPING said:
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?IanB2 said:
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.TOPPING said:A brief review to set us up for the day:
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th.
2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified.
3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar.
4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon.
5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension.
6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again.
7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum.
8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain.
9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...0 -
Be fair; we always suspected. Strongly.Theuniondivvie said:In a world gone weird, Sammy Wilson becoming a go to talking head for the media is one of the weirder aspects.
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/10849627510873415690 -
She can cope with 8 rebels she can't cope with one hundred. Without a backstop the DUP would be on board, plus Field the Lib Dem who backs the deal etc would be enough to see it over the line.rkrkrk said:
Clear to me that's not on offer.Philip_Thompson said:
Or d) a deal without a backstop.rkrkrk said:
Extending A50 only makes sense if we get rid of May and give someone else a go at the negotiation.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Smith, but to what end?
Extending Article 50, or suspended it, is not a solution in itself. The options are still, Leave with no deal, Leave with a deal, Remain.
Maybe she'll go for a referendum, and manage to split both major parties.
The only deal that can pass is either a) softer Brexit or b) includes a promise of a referendum with remain on the ballot or c) both.
You may argue that isn't available but it could.be if someone else has a go at the negotiations and the numbers are there to pass that.
But even if it was, I think there would be enough Tory rebels to stop it from passing.
Edit: 326 - 8 Tory MPs who have backed a second vote, and already she can't get the vote through. That's not including the various MPs who have concerns other than the backstop.
She needed a deal that could get some Labour support.0 -
Starmer is very rarely allowed onto the airwaves. The Labour leadership prefers to send out the ludicrous Burgon and Gardiner to do the Brexit interviews. I wonder if Starmer has been freelancing today.TOPPING said:
Oh yes, the disconnect was evident. I'm amazed that anyone who is not one of the Gang of Five (plus Diane) ever gets onto the airways now.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's more that Starmer is having to second guess his leader and genuinely does not know what Milne, McDonnell, McCluskey and Murray will tell Corbyn to do.TOPPING said:
Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?IanB2 said:
Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.TOPPING said:A brief review to set us up for the day:
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th.
2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified.
3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar.
4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon.
5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension.
6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again.
7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum.
8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain.
9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.
And now we wait...
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French letters are not meant to be read....Alanbrooke said:
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.edmundintokyo said:
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.Alanbrooke said:Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.0 -
Sammy Wilson - 'Simply the best'...OldKingCole said:
Be fair; we always suspected. Strongly.Theuniondivvie said:In a world gone weird, Sammy Wilson becoming a go to talking head for the media is one of the weirder aspects.
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/10849627510873415690 -
Is he not referring to the IRA and not the UVF? He is contrasting bureaucrats with the terrorists of the past (IRA) not putting himself on side of terrorists.Theuniondivvie said:In a world gone weird, Sammy Wilson becoming a go to talking head for the media is one of the weirder aspects.
https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/10849627510873415690 -
I don't see how Melenchon gets ahead of Le Pen in Round One or ahead of Macron in a run-off.Alanbrooke said:
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,SouthamObserver said:
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.Alanbrooke said:
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.SouthamObserver said:The Gilets certainly seem to be losing support - which is no surprise given their recent antics.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-pres-d-un-francais-sur-deux-souhaite-desormais-l-arret-du-mouvement_3138621.html
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.
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I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)Roger said:
French letters are not meant to be read....Alanbrooke said:
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.edmundintokyo said:
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.Alanbrooke said:Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.0 -
Including the Labour Party?Scott_P said:
Most of the people who will vote against the implementing the will of the people tonight are BrexiteersSunnyJim said:The truth of course is that we have a parliament with a majority of MP's who never intended to implement the will of the people if their verdict wasn't remain.
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The other risk is a Le Pen v Melenchron run off.Alanbrooke said:
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,SouthamObserver said:
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.Alanbrooke said:
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.SouthamObserver said:The Gilets certainly seem to be losing support - which is no surprise given their recent antics.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-pres-d-un-francais-sur-deux-souhaite-desormais-l-arret-du-mouvement_3138621.html
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.0 -
Politics is an area where insiders often pretty much KNOW what will happen, so caution is understandable. In this case nobody has a clue, so they could be more relaxed.Peter_the_Punter said:
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.AlastairMeeks said:
Now down to 215-223.AlastairMeeks said:
Selling.TheWhiteRabbit said:
which way?AlastairMeeks said:
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.trawl said:Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
Guess we're too good for them. :-)
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It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
events, He has been much closers to LePen in the past, then lost it. The wide range of parties in France means anyone getting near 20% is in with a shout. the RN for example regularly has bust ups and splits, LePens achievement has been keeping most of the cats herded in the same direction.SouthamObserver said:
I don't see how Melenchon gets ahead of Le Pen in Round One or ahead of Macron in a run-off.Alanbrooke said:
On your graph the next 3 politicians after Macron are all populists of one shade or another and they account for 44% of the vote. The traditional socialist party is on life support and Sarkozys lot are flatlining. As Italy showed the weakness in the assumption that the centre can play the two ends off against each other is when they decide to call the centres bluff. The major risk for Macron would be Melenchon in the run offs. I think that would be a tight race,SouthamObserver said:
Possibly. Both have a ceiling of support, though. And both would lose to Macron in a run-off for the presidency. If Macron is not to win again next time round someone has to emerge from the mainstream to challenge him. There is no sign of that happening yet. The Gilets certainly make that harder as they are very hard for a more mainstream centre left or centre right politician to support.Alanbrooke said:
if the GJs fall apart this is only good news for Marine Le pen and Luc Melenchon imo.SouthamObserver said:The Gilets certainly seem to be losing support - which is no surprise given their recent antics.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/transports/gilets-jaunes/gilets-jaunes-pres-d-un-francais-sur-deux-souhaite-desormais-l-arret-du-mouvement_3138621.html
Their leadership has been discussing standing as a neutral option in the Euro elections something both the RN and LFI didnt want.0 -
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.FrancisUrquhart said:Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
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pǝƃuɐɥɔ sɐɥ ƃuıɥʇouFrankBooth said:
I'm not sure T May would be happy with no deal. She's risk averse to her fingertips. We shall see.SouthamObserver said:Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
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Boxed wine?
.....
That sounds odd.0 -
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
Sorry I was travelling yesterday looking for some inspiration to pass onto you for your next header "The inevitable collapse of the EU." The bad news is that the sun is shining and there doesn't seem to be a cloud in the sky (I've even seen some smiling faces!). I thought I might have seen a gilet Jaune in Nice but it turned out to be a yellow Armani jacket.Alanbrooke said:
RogerRoger said:
Not true. Leave was never going to be a one word answer and the problem is that it's taken us two years to understand this. Perhaps we had to go through this process to realise what membership of the EU was. It's not and never has been what the SUN has been peddling. Bendy bananas benefit scroungers and a way for terrorists to flout the law. And now people have more understanding we should vote again.Tykejohnno said:
Just like remain and democracy.Roger said:Thesesa May has chosen to lose her status as an honest broker and has become instead an evangelist for Brexit with the zeal of a new convert.
It's a very strange thing to have done both for her legacy and her party. Her reputation had become enhanced over the last few months and she she's now trashed it.
I feel so utterly let down by you
today the we have social media letting fly on the Gillette advert and not a word from you.
youre too involved in Brexit wrangling to see whats happening in the real world.
You can take the man out of Hartlepool ........0 -
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?SouthamObserver said:Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
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Falling like a stone. Now 210-218.NickPalmer said:
Politics is an area where insiders often pretty much KNOW what will happen, so caution is understandable. In this case nobody has a clue, so they could be more relaxed.Peter_the_Punter said:
I got the same derisory restriction of £3.50 per point and I'm a regular punter with them. I phoned them to have a mild moan and it seems they have pretty strict guidelines on politics betting.AlastairMeeks said:
Now down to 215-223.AlastairMeeks said:
Selling.TheWhiteRabbit said:
which way?AlastairMeeks said:
I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.trawl said:Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?
Guess we're too good for them. :-)0 -
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Well, there's nowt wrong with the message, but Gillette should be advertising to sell razors.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an SJW and I think it's good. Be a positive role model.Dadge said:
Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.FrancisUrquhart said:Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-468746170 -
Please refer to my previous post. You may be sure that there will not be a no deal.kjohnw said:
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?SouthamObserver said:Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
0 -
On wine, as a teetotaler I know nothing - but the Good Lady Wifi say that the M&S Japanese 2016 Sol Lucet Koshu Kurambon Wine is immensely quaffable.DavidL said:
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.FrancisUrquhart said:Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
0 -
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
You might poke fun but If it wasn't for the likes of me you wouldn't have a clue what toilet paper is the most absorbentAlanbrooke said:
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)Roger said:
French letters are not meant to be read....Alanbrooke said:
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.edmundintokyo said:
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.Alanbrooke said:Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.0 -
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
From the top down...Sunil_Prasannan said:
Including the Labour Party?Scott_P said:
Most of the people who will vote against the implementing the will of the people tonight are BrexiteersSunnyJim said:The truth of course is that we have a parliament with a majority of MP's who never intended to implement the will of the people if their verdict wasn't remain.
0 -
Cardbordeaux?Morris_Dancer said:Boxed wine?
.....
That sounds odd.0 -
German debt to GDP ratio is over 64%. A lot higher than ours was before Brown's crash.Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
I have no idea what will happen - but I just don't see how the Commons can get to a position where No Deal is avoided if May's deal does not go through.kjohnw said:
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?SouthamObserver said:Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
0 -
They are. We are all talking about them.Dadge said:
Well, there's nowt wrong with the message, but Gillette should be advertising to sell razors.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an SJW and I think it's good. Be a positive role model.Dadge said:
Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.FrancisUrquhart said:Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-468746170 -
2 blade Bics for me.Dadge said:
Well, there's nowt wrong with the message, but Gillette should be advertising to sell razors.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an SJW and I think it's good. Be a positive role model.Dadge said:
Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.FrancisUrquhart said:Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-468746170 -
Tried some Japanese wine at our Wine Group some time ago. Quaffable it wasn't!, as I recall.MarqueeMark said:
On wine, as a teetotaler I know nothing - but the Good Lady Wifi say that the M&S Japanese 2016 Sol Lucet Koshu Kurambon Wine is immensely quaffable.DavidL said:
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.FrancisUrquhart said:Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
0 -
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
you swineRoger said:
You might poke fun but If it wasn't for the likes of me you wouldn't have a clue what toilet paper is the most absorbentAlanbrooke said:
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)Roger said:
French letters are not meant to be read....Alanbrooke said:
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.edmundintokyo said:
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.Alanbrooke said:Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.
you have single handedly created fatbergs !0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Just checked. To get there from London it's go to Newcastle and get a TransPennine.0 -
Possibly enough of the trains don't stop? Its wildly more unpredictable than the preceding event, that is for sure.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Let me introduce you to Chathill:AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chathill_railway_station
"Although it is on the main line, the station is served by just two arrivals and departures per day, Mondays to Saturdays only"0 -
I must be the only one on Earth who has no opinion on this. Who cares? They can advertise any way they like with reason and the law, whether it works or not is another (and much more interesting) question.Dadge said:
Well, there's nowt wrong with the message, but Gillette should be advertising to sell razors.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an SJW and I think it's good. Be a positive role model.Dadge said:
Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.FrancisUrquhart said:Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-468746170 -
Not just a hangover but an M&S....TOPPING said:
Please refer to my previous post. You may be sure that there will not be a no deal.kjohnw said:
Southam Observer : you have always been pretty accurate in your past predictions during 2015 GE and 2016 referendum . So how confident are you on this?SouthamObserver said:Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.
0 -
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.0 -
Izal still got that fatwa on you?Roger said:
You might poke fun but If it wasn't for the likes of me you wouldn't have a clue what toilet paper is the most absorbentAlanbrooke said:
I was hoping you were about to reveal you were shooting an advert for Gillettes new male tampon range, but apparently not :-)Roger said:
French letters are not meant to be read....Alanbrooke said:
I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.edmundintokyo said:
It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.Alanbrooke said:Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php
it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.
But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php
He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.
Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.
The man is desperate and it shows.
EDIT: Not one of yours then?
http://wisewebwoman.blogspot.com/2013/10/leather-arse-or-how-i-survived-izal.html0 -
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...OldKingCole said:AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.0 -
It could scupper your bet if this amendment passes - makes the Gov't defeat much less heavy.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.0 -
If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.0 -
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.Alanbrooke said:
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.0 -
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
"There is a way out, Angela....."0 -
Where's Sunil when he's needed?eek said:
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...OldKingCole said:AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.0 -
I still don't see how this amendment passes..Pulpstar said:
It could scupper your bet if this amendment passes - makes the Gov't defeat much less heavy.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.0 -
When did you drop the G from the start of your name?eek said:
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...OldKingCole said:AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
The expertise contained within these pixilated four walls never ceases to astonish.....0 -
Yes the irony is that in trying to minimise the extent to which there will be alignment between the EU and GB&NI, they may end up with more alignment than is currently contained in the WA.RobinWiggs said:If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.0 -
If that was the plan the vote could have been held in December and discussed then - so going back to Europe to remove the backstop can't be the plan...RobinWiggs said:If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.0 -
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais backDavidL said:
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.Alanbrooke said:
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
personally I can do without it0 -
Morning all. Big big day! And how is this for commitment? My MP, Tulip Sadiq, has delayed giving birth in order to vote ‘No’. That is how eager she is to reject an orderly exit from the European Union on time and in accordance with the 2016 referendum. She is clearly far from alone in that sentiment. It does appear that the fact of defeat is certain, only the margin is a suitable topic of debate, on which btw I note no market from the pussies at Sporting Index, and of course what Plan B is going to be.
A word of caution from me, however, to those heavily invested, financially or emotionally, in there NOT being a smooth and timely exit from the EU. Consider the example of that other big ‘EU’ vote, one of my favourite events of the year, the Eurovision Song Contest. When that comes around all people of sound mind and good character are aware that it is a MASSIVE advantage to be the final act up. Why? Because your contribution is freshest in the minds of the electorate when they vote. So long as your contribution is strong you have an excellent chance of winning.
So who has the golden position in the MV debate? Who is slated to wind up? It’s a certain Theresa May, our Prime Minister, and what Eurovision teaches is that she can swing it if her speech is so powerful that it blows the House down. That is therefore the challenge for Mrs May. She needs to be Abba’s ‘Waterloo’ rather than, as has sadly been the case with her thus far, Gina G’s ‘Ooh Aah Just A Little Bit’. Can she deliver? Unlikely, but the possibility that she can, and hence the prospect of a negotiated exit from the EU on time and on budget and in accordance with the 2016 referendum, should not be discounted entirely.0 -
Working - I'm wrong btw there is a 2 hourly service from Transpenine express (it seems to stop at Chester-le-street rather than Darlington).OldKingCole said:
Where's Sunil when he's needed?eek said:
Chester-le-street isn't that well served as the only trains that stop there are Northern Rail local services and they've been timetabled out of service to provide more options for Transpenine, Cross Country and LNER services...OldKingCole said:AlastairMeeks said:
I'm agog to know what it could be about. It's on the main east coast line. It's hard to imagine that it's poorly served.DavidL said:
It would be appalling if the Chester-le-Street debate is held up by a PM resignation or VonC (please let's not have a repeat of yesterday about that) wouldn't it?AlastairMeeks said:
Looks from Wikipedia as though a) Mainline trains don't stop there and b) the company running the station (Chester le Track) has gone bust.
Regardless of that the service is awful, you can go North in the morning to get to Newcastle but woe betide you if you miss the 18:15 going home.0 -
I think this is a key point - the final tally will depend on what amendments have been passed.Pulpstar said:
It could scupper your bet if this amendment passes - makes the Gov't defeat much less heavy.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.0 -
I think that these soft Brexiteer amendments are the key metric to watch tonight.MarqueeMark said:
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
"There is a way out, Angela....."
The number of switchers who vote down May's deal but support these amendments (assuming Bercow allows them to proceed to vote) could show the most likely way forward.
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Also, Calais would have to be turned into a fortress to keep the migrant hordes at bay as effectively as 21 miles of water.....Alanbrooke said:
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais backDavidL said:
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.Alanbrooke said:
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
personally I can do without it0 -
Bercow should probably allow all amendments. OK Parliament might be there voting till 1 in the morning but it's important stuff.0
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Of course what the Withdrawal Act and now the Grieve amendment require is a statement from a minister about what they intend to do next. It is possible, I suppose, that that statement will amount to, well, we will have another chat with the EU, see what we get and try again.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1085100120679563264
Too busy with the allotment.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1085104373443805184
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I joked about that to some french Colleagues last week. Turns out neither us nor them actually want it...Alanbrooke said:
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais backDavidL said:
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.Alanbrooke said:
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
personally I can do without it0 -
Spent last weekend in Munich with a friend who is being transferred to China to run Siemens / Bosch design there. Had a leaving dinner with 20 or so German business people.
They have lost interest in Brexit and it is not a big concern for them. They are more worried about China / USA fight and technology shifts. Bosch employs 400,000 staff worldwide of which 1% are in the UK. There is a lot of angst about immigrants and they are pleased Merkel is going.
The UK is kidding itself if they think the Germans are going to save us. They like us but in the end they are more worried about their own problems.0 -
Aquitaine and Gascony on the other hand ..............Alanbrooke said:
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais backDavidL said:
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.Alanbrooke said:
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
personally I can do without it0 -
Northern Ireland-esque...eek said:
I joked about that to some french Colleagues last week. Turns out neither us nor them actually want it...Alanbrooke said:
I think HMG is still aspiring to get Calais backDavidL said:
In respect of IT have we finished paying for the Napoleonic wars yet? Must be due a review, surely.Alanbrooke said:
theres a rumbling debate in Germany about abolishing the solidarity tax. The tax was introduced on wages to pay East Germany being upgraded. It was meant to be a one off but has now been in place for 30 years. So far no government wants to hand people their own money back.DavidL said:
And a nuclear fall out shelter, just in case. Meanwhile, and inevitably given such hostile policies, the target 2 balance for Germany edges towards 1trn Euros: http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000004859Alanbrooke said:
they did thatn ages ago. Now theyre buildinmg a second roof.Philip_Thompson said:
Fixing the roof while the sun is shining.Alanbrooke said:
it's crazy. And Germany is defying the EU by racking up such huge surpluses. Sadly most of the german press have been reporting the politicians want to hang on to the cash - in case theres a recession - rather than boost demand and try to float some of the boats in Europe.DavidL said:
It really is incredibly frustrating. Germany and much of the rest of the EZ is teetering on the brink of recession because of a weakness in demand and the German surplus, yes surplus, is up to 60bn euros.Alanbrooke said:Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity
https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html
Any sane government would be significantly reducing tax or increasing spending or both to increase domestic demand and create a market that other parts of the EZ could export into. But while Germany shivers in self imposed chill much of the EZ is once again freezing solid with already dangerously high levels of unemployment and disillusionment.
personally I can do without it0 -
What's the worst that happens if May stands up and effectively says "nothing has changed"? Her Government gets held in contempt of Parliament? Again?DavidL said:Of course what the Withdrawal Act and now the Grieve amendment require is a statement from a minister about what they intend to do next. It is possible, I suppose, that that statement will amount to, well, we will have another chat with the EU, see what we get and try again.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.0 -
The government won't be happy with this tweet coming a few hours before the vote.
https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/10851217537293885440 -
No, the Grieve amendment specifies more than just a statement, there has to be a motion tabled within three days (and that motion can, I think, be amended). So parliament will have the opportunity to actually decide something, should it so wish.DavidL said:Of course what the Withdrawal Act and now the Grieve amendment require is a statement from a minister about what they intend to do next. It is possible, I suppose, that that statement will amount to, well, we will have another chat with the EU, see what we get and try again.
Provided that the government does not lose a VonC there are limits to what the HoC can do.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, isn't that a daft amendment to allow, though? It's contrary to the withdrawal agreement.0
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The amendment is an opportunity for MPs to vote for a No Deal Brexit, nothing more.MarqueeMark said:
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
"There is a way out, Angela....."
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Mad-dog Milne and the Six-pack Twins?FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
They are stupid enough for it to be the plan though. They don't know the difference between their arse and their elboweek said:
If that was the plan the vote could have been held in December and discussed then - so going back to Europe to remove the backstop can't be the plan...RobinWiggs said:If she can get through the immediate aftermath of the vote tonight and retain control of the process (which is by no means certain) - then my prediction (for what it is worth) is that she will acknowledge (again!) that the main problem honourable members have expressed is with the backstop - and head back to Europe to have it removed/watered down with the ringing endorsement of a heavy defeat behind her.
Something more significant will be achieved at this late stage - but it will probably involve us conceding a form of customs union.
At which point the hardcore ERGonauts go full-on headbang, but it could peel enough away from the rebels and bring in enough Labour abstentions and perhaps even a few switchers with tacit Corbyn ambivalence to them not following the official line, to see her home at a second attempt.
But to be honest, anyone trying to predict what will follow defeat at 7pm tonight is a fool.0 -
Mark, have you never drunk or is being teetotal a decision you made later in life?MarqueeMark said:
On wine, as a teetotaler I know nothing - but the Good Lady Wifi say that the M&S Japanese 2016 Sol Lucet Koshu Kurambon Wine is immensely quaffable.DavidL said:
Very dangerous stuff in my experience. Far too easy to just have another glass. It is a saving for me that bottles have a bottom that is not too far from the top.FrancisUrquhart said:Anything much happening to day. I heard there is some insignificant business in the HoC, but other than that, not much. How about a discussion on boxed wine instead?
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BBC just now - "Germany's Forign Minister suggest new Brexit talks....."
EU blinking?0 -
This amendment makes absolutely no sense to me. Can someone explain it?AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
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thats been the state of affairs for the last year or so. Other countries have bigger fish to fry its only the Brits who think Brexit is the top of the worlds agenda. its now somewhere between of passing interest and just get on with it,.hamiltonace said:Spent last weekend in Munich with a friend who is being transferred to China to run Siemens / Bosch design there. Had a leaving dinner with 20 or so German business people.
They have lost interest in Brexit and it is not a big concern for them. They are more worried about China / USA fight and technology shifts. Bosch employs 400,000 staff worldwide of which 1% are in the UK. There is a lot of angst about immigrants and they are pleased Merkel is going.
The UK is kidding itself if they think the Germans are going to save us. They like us but in the end they are more worried about their own problems.0 -
It is an opportunity for MPs to highlight that there is a particular aspect of the current deal that is preventing them from supporting it.SouthamObserver said:
The amendment is an opportunity for MPs to vote for a No Deal Brexit, nothing more.MarqueeMark said:
Useful thing for May to stick under Mutti's nose.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
"There is a way out, Angela....."0 -
That's interesting.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1085065153035583488
Note the heavy overlap of signatories with my list of uncommitted MPs. This looks like a list of MPs who would like to be loyal but are struggling to do so.
I was impressed by Julian Sturdy's logic in the debate last night. He opposes No Deal, opposes a Second Referendum, and cannot therefore support the WA.0 -
The comparisons between this and the GE of 1997 are many.
Major knew he was going to lose and lose big as does May but they both couldn't and cant say anything.
The numbers will be almost identical 165 Tory vs around 418 lab
Led to complete meltdown for 9 years in Tory party..we could be heading there again.0
