politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whatever you think of Bercow it is right that the executive ha

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Greetings from Sydney! Thought I’d get away from it all. Not a bit of it - Brexit and the likely outcome of the meaningful vote led the 6 o’clock news....

Malcolm Turnbull nailed it (or rather William Dalrymple did).

https://twitter.com/turnbullmalcolm/status/1084915377505677317?s=21

A year or so back, Australia produced a White Paper that was somewhat wistful about being on the wrong side of the world from the European Union.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1085089882429640706

In a tribute to Game of Thrones, can we have the Mountain throw those who vote against the deal out of the moon door?

Oh and Gove too....just for the shitz n giggles. "The look on your face....."

Tykejohnno said:

IanB2 said:

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

Oh the irony - the Speaker allowing the Legislature to take powers away from the Executive, solely so that the Legislature can rob the Voters of their voice - and in doing so, ensure the Legislature's own powers are massively diluted by Brussels.....

MP's are not delegates and as Conservatives MP's have shown in the past they are not bound by the majority view in a referendum.

And a people's vote on the deal is hardly robbing them of a voice.

It is when leave hasn't been implemented in the first place.

No, really it isn't. Pushing through a specific deal that people hadn't seen or known anything about three years ago is denying them a voice.

FF43 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Greetings from Sydney! Thought I’d get away from it all. Not a bit of it - Brexit and the likely outcome of the meaningful vote led the 6 o’clock news....

Malcolm Turnbull nailed it (or rather William Dalrymple did).

https://twitter.com/turnbullmalcolm/status/1084915377505677317?s=21

A year or so back, Australia produced a White Paper that was somewhat wistful about being on the wrong side of the world from the European Union.

If they asked to join, would they be refused? More money for the eastern states, a decent military, well-placed as a bridge to Asia...

I guess the French would veto.

SunnyJim said:

BudG said:

Problem with that is that it would also force the Tories to expose their GE position. Surely after over 100 of their sitting MP's have just voted against passing May's deal, it cannot be "Elect us and we will pass May's deal"

With an explicit manifesto commitment to implement then it would be up to current MP's to decide whether their views on the deal would allow them to stand as candidates.

Unfortunately in 2017 many stood on the manifesto without having any real intention of honouring it.

Democratically shameful in all honesty.

So 18 months on, you expect over 100 leopards to change their spots?

Roger said:

By 'cultural vandalism' I wonder if he's referring to the concept of restricting our ability to live and work in Florence Rome and Paris in return for keeping foreigners out of Stoke Hull and Hartlepool?

Wow.

This is why remain lost in one paragraph.

Interesting that the ERG prediction of 5 resigning PPSs has proved (so far) entirely false. Following their failures with the early attempts at a VONC, this suggests that someone (Steve Baker?) is motivated in not-for-attribution briefings more by hope than knowledge.

dots said:

Isn’t the bottom line of today’s vote completely obvious and very frightening?

Politicians who stood side by side to get the electorate to vote leave, now violently disagreeing about May’s deal? How do you disagree with that statement?
So, how is it anti democracy and not good democracy to also ask the voters, when, you voted leave, you had leave in your head, now this is negotiated and compromised and agreed, is this particular flavour of leave to your taste?

There’s an element here of switching between two different types of democracy, rather than being consistent what good democracy is?

It's politicians who stood side by side saying in their 2017 manifestos they would implement Brexit - and then not implementing it - that is obvious.

MarqueeMark said:

Alanbrooke said:

Going back to the theme of tax avoidance the Commission is proposing to remove states right of veto on tax affairs


https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187054320/EU-Bruessel-will-das-Veto-Recht-bei-Steuerfragen-kippen.html

"Do you want Brussels setting your tax rate?"

What the Commission proposes are what happens are not necessarily the same thing!

IanB2 said:

No, really it isn't. Pushing through a specific deal that people hadn't seen or known anything about three years ago is denying them a voice.

May's deal is very much on the soft side of Brexit so there isn't a credible argument to be had that voters are being denied a voice.

Or if they are, the denial is of the type of Brexit that had millions of words written and countless hours of television produced about it.

The truth of course is that we have a parliament with a majority of MP's who never intended to implement the will of the people if their verdict wasn't remain.

Tykejohnno said:

Roger said:

Thesesa May has chosen to lose her status as an honest broker and has become instead an evangelist for Brexit with the zeal of a new convert.

It's a very strange thing to have done both for her legacy and her party. Her reputation had become enhanced over the last few months and she she's now trashed it.

Just like remain and democracy.

Not true. Leave was never going to be a one word answer and the problem is that it's taken us two years to understand this. Perhaps we had to go through this process to realise what membership of the EU was. It's not and never has been what the SUN has been peddling. Bendy bananas benefit scroungers and a way for terrorists to flout the law. And now people have more understanding we should vote again.

SunnyJim said:

Roger said:

By 'cultural vandalism' I wonder if he's referring to the concept of restricting our ability to live and work in Florence Rome and Paris in return for keeping foreigners out of Stoke Hull and Hartlepool?

Wow.

This is why remain lost in one paragraph.

Yep.

I wonder why Roger never mentions places like Bradford which voted leave.

SunnyJim said:

IanB2 said:

No, really it isn't. Pushing through a specific deal that people hadn't seen or known anything about three years ago is denying them a voice.

May's deal is very much on the soft side of Brexit so there isn't a credible argument to be had that voters are being denied a voice.

Or if they are, the denial is of the type of Brexit that had millions of words written and countless hours of television produced about it.

The truth of course is that we have a parliament with a majority of MP's who never intended to implement the will of the people if their verdict wasn't remain.

Of course voters are being denied a voice. Because we don't have one (yet, perhaps).

A goodly proportion of those who will be bringing the Brexit deal down are MPs who claim always to have wanted it.

Roger said:

Not true. Leave was never going to be a one word answer and the problem is that it's taken us two years to understand this. Perhaps we had to go through this process to realise what membership of the EU was. It's not and never has been what the SUN has been peddling. Bendy bananas benefit scroungers and a way for terrorists to flout the law. And now people have more understanding we should vote again.

And if we were to remain you would have no issue with a 3rd referendum as the EU changes and peoples understanding of it changes with it?

Or is the vote again plan only valid until you get the particular answer you want?

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

Agree with this, we're seeing some quite unorthodox moves, but it's in response to a very unorthodox situation where by creating a delay for an obviously-bogus negotiation then trying to run down the clock, the Prime Minister is attempting a Denial of Service attack on her own parliament.

Very nicely put. When are you going to write some lead articles? Seriously - you're wasted by being only below the line.

Well, we have a number of others who are wasted when they post below the line. SeanT and Tim/Grabcocque both spring to mind.

Oh, you mean 'wasted' as in, 'not being used to full effectiveness?'

I hadn’t realised Grabcoque was Tim under a pseudonym! Really?

I backed Fewer than 200 MPs to back the deal yesterday at 8.2 (and 200-209 at 6.4) on Betfair. The lower band can be laid now at 5.2. The higher band is roughly the same.

However, 200-249 can be backed at 1.72 on Ladbrokes, which I've done. So if MPs supporting May's deal number 249 or lower, I'm green.

Edited extra bit: the 'boost' bumps that all the way to 1.75, so practically the same, but nicer numerically if you have a stake that's a multiple of four.

Morris_Dancer said:

I backed Fewer than 200 MPs to back the deal yesterday at 8.2 (and 200-209 at 6.4) on Betfair. The lower band can be laid now at 5.2. The higher band is roughly the same.

However, 200-249 can be backed at 1.72 on Ladbrokes, which I've done. So if MPs supporting May's deal number 249 or lower, I'm green.

Edited extra bit: the 'boost' bumps that all the way to 1.75, so practically the same, but nicer numerically if you have a stake that's a multiple of four.

You look very safe to me. I make it about 1.3 that it will be in the 200-249 band with almost all the risk on the lower number.

Anazina said:

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

Agree with this, we're seeing some quite unorthodox moves, but it's in response to a very unorthodox situation where by creating a delay for an obviously-bogus negotiation then trying to run down the clock, the Prime Minister is attempting a Denial of Service attack on her own parliament.

Very nicely put. When are you going to write some lead articles? Seriously - you're wasted by being only below the line.

Well, we have a number of others who are wasted when they post below the line. SeanT and Tim/Grabcocque both spring to mind.

Oh, you mean 'wasted' as in, 'not being used to full effectiveness?'

I hadn’t realised Grabcoque was Tim under a pseudonym! Really?

I don't think it does to look too closely at pseudonyms.

But in any case, Grabcoque is not Tim.

Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.

So Hillary Benn’s withdrawn his amendment.

That I think makes extension/revocation of Article 50 more likely.

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

Roger said:

Tykejohnno said:

Roger said:

Thesesa May has chosen to lose her status as an honest broker and has become instead an evangelist for Brexit with the zeal of a new convert.

It's a very strange thing to have done both for her legacy and her party. Her reputation had become enhanced over the last few months and she she's now trashed it.

Just like remain and democracy.

Not true. Leave was never going to be a one word answer and the problem is that it's taken us two years to understand this. Perhaps we had to go through this process to realise what membership of the EU was. It's not and never has been what the SUN has been peddling. Bendy bananas benefit scroungers and a way for terrorists to flout the law. And now people have more understanding we should vote again.

Roger

I feel so utterly let down by you

today the we have social media letting fly on the Gillette advert and not a word from you.

youre too involved in Brexit wrangling to see whats happening in the real world.

You can take the man out of Hartlepool ........

Morning all,

Momentous day in politics.

The Murrison amendment is unicorn chasing isn't it? Or am I missing something?

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Hillary Benn’s withdrawn his amendment.

That I think makes extension/revocation of Article 50 more likely.

Benn's proposal was politically illiterate.

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Isn't Macron's popularity on the rise as the Gilets lose support?

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

You cannot have a single market without freedom of movement.

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Such a wasted opportunity. France desperately needs some reforms and he was on the right track with some of them.

@AlastairMeeks Everything I know about Kevin Foster indicates he will be voting for the deal

Tykejohnno said:

IanB2 said:

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

Oh the irony - the Speaker allowing the Legislature to take powers away from the Executive, solely so that the Legislature can rob the Voters of their voice - and in doing so, ensure the Legislature's own powers are massively diluted by Brussels.....

MP's are not delegates and as Conservatives MP's have shown in the past they are not bound by the majority view in a referendum.

And a people's vote on the deal is hardly robbing them of a voice.

It is when leave hasn't been implemented in the first place.

I have some sympathy with that view.

We also have to recognise the reality of the situation. Leave had 52% support and are now divided over the form of Brexit. Leave had a slim majority when united, it stands to reason that once divided neither leave option has a majority. You have some leavers calling May's deal "traitorous" and others calling no deal "economic suicide".That is before you even discuss people changing their minds.

Basically then you are arguing that we have to embark on a major constitutional road which lacks majority support. It's not the leavers faults that is how it ended up that way (other than not having a plan they could unite behind) but it did and I can't honestly see what is "democratic" about proceeding on that basis. Difficult, major changes generally need the country behind them to succeed, this is a recipe for failure. A second vote really is needed to confirm where we go from here.

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Isn't Macron's popularity on the rise as the Gilets lose support?

Ive seen no evidence of that. The last poll had him gaining 1% and having only 22% of voters approving his record versus 60+% who dont.

Personally I thought the gilets jaunes would fizzle out after the attacks on strasbourg and the Christmas break, But last Saturday they were back stronger than ever. Macrons hope is that their leadership is showing the first signs of falling out among themselves, with two of the main instigators spatting on social media. Technically this should mean a loss of impetus, but its France so who knows ?

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Such a wasted opportunity. France desperately needs some reforms and he was on the right track with some of them.

France certainly needs it, but Macron appears to have gone out of his way to offend every segment of the population at once. His one big victory was facing down the rail union but that has been forgottn in the mess of the last 3 months.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Smith, but to what end?

Extending Article 50, or suspended it, is not a solution in itself. The options are still, Leave with no deal, Leave with a deal, Remain.

Maybe she'll go for a referendum, and manage to split both major parties.

Extending A50 only makes sense if we get rid of May and give someone else a go at the negotiation.

The only deal that can pass is either a) softer Brexit or b) includes a promise of a referendum with remain on the ballot or c) both.

Alanbrooke said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Such a wasted opportunity. France desperately needs some reforms and he was on the right track with some of them.

France certainly needs it, but Macron appears to have gone out of his way to offend every segment of the population at once. His one big victory was facing down the rail union but that has been forgottn in the mess of the last 3 months.

Indeed and it will likely be reversed now as the rail union no doubt smell blood.

rkrkrk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Smith, but to what end?

Extending Article 50, or suspended it, is not a solution in itself. The options are still, Leave with no deal, Leave with a deal, Remain.

Maybe she'll go for a referendum, and manage to split both major parties.

Extending A50 only makes sense if we get rid of May and give someone else a go at the negotiation.

The only deal that can pass is either a) softer Brexit or b) includes a promise of a referendum with remain on the ballot or c) both.

Or d) a deal without a backstop.

You may argue that isn't available but it could.be if someone else has a go at the negotiations and the numbers are there to pass that.

For TSE http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/01/15/gaming-a-three-way-people-s-vote

SouthamObserver said:

Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.

I'm not sure T May would be happy with no deal. She's risk averse to her fingertips. We shall see.

Alanbrooke said:

Germans get a burst of angst on economy. Major concern is slowdown in exports which to date have been engine driving prosperity


https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article187076370/Konjunktur-Deutsche-Wirtschaft-waechst-schwaecher-als-gedacht.html

Good job the EU's negotiators have ensured the German exports to the UK aren't at any risk of -

Oh.....

AlastairMeeks said:

trawl said:

Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?

I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.

which way?

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

trawl said:

Correction to post early this morning. SPIN do now have a market up currently 218 - 226. I donut know until what time that market will be tradeable; right up until the vote or just until the bloke on the politics desk there finishes work?

I was allowed a mighty £3.75 a point on that.

which way?

Selling.

IanB2 said:

OllyT said:

Tykejohnno said:

IanB2 said:

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

Oh the irony - the Speaker allowing the Legislature to take powers away from the Executive, solely so that the Legislature can rob the Voters of their voice - and in doing so, ensure the Legislature's own powers are massively diluted by Brussels.....

MP's are not delegates and as Conservatives MP's have shown in the past they are not bound by the majority view in a referendum.

And a people's vote on the deal is hardly robbing them of a voice.

It is when leave hasn't been implemented in the first place.

I have some sympathy with that view.

We also have to recognise the reality of the situation. Leave had 52% support and are now divided over the form of Brexit. Leave had a slim majority when united, it stands to reason that once divided neither leave option has a majority. You have some leavers calling May's deal "traitorous" and others calling no deal "economic suicide".That is before you even discuss people changing their minds.

Basically then you are arguing that we have to embark on a major constitutional road which lacks majority support. It's not the leavers faults that is how it ended up that way (other than not having a plan they could unite behind) but it did and I can't honestly see what is "democratic" about proceeding on that basis. Difficult, major changes generally need the country behind them to succeed, this is a recipe for failure. A second vote really is needed to confirm where we go from here.

Very well put. Leavers arguing for no turning back regardless of everything that has happened since are simply fearful that the public has had enough of their project.

So from the early 1970's when we voted to join the common market and 40 odd years later,the public never had enough of the project of the EU ?

Why didn't we get a vote on the EU years ago going by what you are posting ? Double standards pal.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, there's a new F1 market: fastest car in testing. Not touching it myself.

I would be tempted to put a few quid on Red Bull as they are the only team that may care...

TheWhiteRabbit said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Isn't Macron's popularity on the rise as the Gilets lose support?

Ive seen no evidence of that. The last poll had him gaining 1% and having only 22% of voters approving his record versus 60+% who dont.

Personally I thought the gilets jaunes would fizzle out after the attacks on strasbourg and the Christmas break, But last Saturday they were back stronger than ever. Macrons hope is that their leadership is showing the first signs of falling out among themselves, with two of the main instigators spatting on social media. Technically this should mean a loss of impetus, but its France so who knows ?

Last French polls I’ve seen:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1083852789695041539?s=21

https://twitter.com/lior_brownstein/status/1082734716736937985?s=21

That's not VI, though, just approval (for each person individually)

Of course. What the polls seem to indicate is that Macron is deeply unpopular - but less so than any of the alternatives.

FrankBooth said:

SouthamObserver said:

Comrades - we are heading towards a No Deal. That is the default position and there is no majority in Parliament for another one. A No Deal suits both party leaders: May gets to end freedom of movement for foreigners and Brits, her only guiding light; Corbyn gets an economic catastrophe, his only chance of electoral victory. Hold tight.

I'm not sure T May would be happy with no deal. She's risk averse to her fingertips. We shall see.

Sure, she will do everything she is capable of to pass some version of her deal instead, but I think she'd be less unhappy with a no deal Brexit then with any of the alternatives (referendum, general election, A50 extension, revocation).

This is why no deal opponents have to decide on an alternative and a PM who would implement that alternative. We'll see if they are capable of that soon.

Mr. eek, problem is testing times are unhelpful due to massive fuel effect, engine modes, and tyres. Plus, lower teams sometimes want flashy times to try and attract sponsors.

Red Bull could be top, but so could many others. Not a market that tempts me remotely.

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid pro quo that gets poorer countries open their markets to richer countries. The poorer countries won't give that up with nothing in return, and the richer countries can't suddenly unilaterally rip up that bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comically vague aspirations, so he's come back at them with, "OK, what do you suggest we do specifically?" You want to cut taxes, which taxes do you want to cut, and what spending do you want to cut to pay for it? You're not happy with immigration - what do you suggest we do, have parliament set targets? What are you actually suggesting we do? This is not at all advocacy of everything he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Isn't Macron's popularity on the rise as the Gilets lose support?

Ive seen no evidence of that. The last poll had him gaining 1% and having only 22% of voters approving his record versus 60+% who dont.

Personally I thought the gilets jaunl media. Technically this should mean a loss of impetus, but its France so who knows ?

Last French polls I’ve seen:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1083852789695041539?s=21

https://twitter.com/lior_brownstein/status/1082734716736937985?s=21

if Macron gets as much as 21% of the vote at the Euros he'll consider it a success. As your graph shows France has a wide number of parties which means few governments have a truly popular base.

Last poll put him on 27.5%

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid prohat bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comihing he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Isn't Macron's popularity on the rise as the Gilets lose support?

Ive seen no evidence of that. The last poll had him gaining 1% and having only 22% of voters approving his record versus 60+% who dont.

Personally I thought the gilets jaunl media. Technically this should mean a loss of impetus, but its France so who knows ?

Last French polls I’ve seen:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1083852789695041539?s=21

https://twitter.com/lior_brownstein/status/1082734716736937985?s=21

if Macron gets as much as 21% of the vote at the Euros he'll consider it a success. As your graph shows France has a wide number of parties which means few governments have a truly popular base.

Last poll put him on 27.5%

the poll I am referring to is January 2019

Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46874617

I foresee Dollar Shave Club now running a load of ads taking the piss.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gillette faces backlash and boycott over '#MeToo advert'

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46874617

Although I'm a raging SJW, I don't know what possesses companies to do daft stuff like this.

Alanbrooke said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alanbrooke said:

edmundintokyo said:

Alanbrooke said:

Macron hints he will introduce immigration quotas

http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/14/01016-20190114ARTFIG00235-macron-ressuscite-le-debat-sur-l-instauration-de-quotas-migratoires-annuels.php

it does make you wonder just how bad Merkel and the Commissions judgement called it with Cameron. This is increasingly the european norm.

It's not up to them, freedom of movement is part of the basic quid prohat bit of the agreement.

But in any case Macron isn't hinting that he's going to do it. Read the letter the article is talking about:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/13/01002-20190113ARTFIG00156-grand-debat-national-la-lettre-aux-francais-d-emmanuel-macron.php

He's faced with a bunch of popular protests with a bunch of comihing he mentions in the letter.

I read the letter yesterday and the french reaction to it. Its bombed and Macron is struggling.
Not only struggling but reversing every piece of legislation he has proposed.

Yesterdays wheeze was to reverse the speed limit reduction and put the national limit back to 90km/h with his ministers saying the reduction didnt really do anything.

The man is desperate and it shows.

Isn't Macron's popularity on the rise as the Gilets lose support?

Ive seen no evidence of that. The last poll had him gaining 1% and having only 22% of voters approving his record versus 60+% who dont.

Personally I thought the gilets jaunl media. Technically this should mean a loss of impetus, but its France so who knows ?

Last French polls I’ve seen:

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1083852789695041539?s=21

https://twitter.com/lior_brownstein/status/1082734716736937985?s=21

if Macron gets as much as 21% of the vote at the Euros he'll consider it a success. As your graph shows France has a wide number of parties which means few governments have a truly popular base.

Last poll put him on 27.5%

the poll I am referring to is January 2019

Sorry I missed the "at the Euros" part. 21% would be a reasonable target

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

A brief review to set us up for the day:

1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is leaving the EU. It means we would leave on March 29th.
2. The WA is not the final trade agreement; that would be negotiated once the WA had been ratified.
3. We will not have no deal. Or a "managed no deal" or anything similar.
4. If the WA doesn't pass now it will come back to the HoC soon.
5. If it doesn't pass then, there will be an A50 extension.
6. If A50 is extended, the WA will come back and put to the HoC again.
7. If this fails, there will be a second referendum.
8. If there is a second referendum the question will be WA vs Remain.
9. There will be no No Deal option on a second referendum.

And now we wait...

Yep, that's pretty much it. You could factor Labour's immediate VONC and its failure tomorrow into there, as well.

Listening to Starmer this morning, I am none too sure they will trigger one. I am not at all sure why he wasn't able to be more emphatic. Do they wonder if the deal will pass?