politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in
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Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.0 -
Meanwhile a non-Brexit story that looks set to be front and centre for a lot of the public:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1084568861213638656?s=210 -
So later then, Bercow needs to have his fun after all, and it prolongs the agony for the government.TheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.0 -
Surely without a rescue plan it costs all the jobs?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile a non-Brexit story that looks set to be front and centre for a lot of the public:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1084568861213638656?s=210 -
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.0 -
Betfair most likely number voting Aye is around 225 implying around 390 voting No i.e. a majority against the government of around 165. This would be reduced by any abstentions.AlastairMeeks said:
He ranks about number 120 on my list of potential rebels. That implies just over 200 voting for the deal, so going down by more than 200.kle4 said:
It's being anticipated to be 150+ at least isn't it? The most optimistic I've seen was *around* 100 and many well over 200. How much bigger could it possibly get?AlastairMeeks said:
The only new name I’ve seen bruited who has not previously come out against is Tom Pursglove. If he comes out against, this sucker is going dahn bigstyle - he’d positioned himself till now very astutely to be able to vote for the deal with a heavy heart when required. If he’s not doing that, the defeat is likely to be bigger than anticipated.grabcocque said:Rumours circulating in Twitterland of at least 5 Tory PPSes planning to resign and vote against the deal.
I count another 13 Conservative MPs still unconfirmed. I’d assumed they’d all vote for the deal but that assumption now looks unsafe.0 -
Wild idea here, but does anything think the Cabinet have even coalesced around a plan B yet? Unofficially of course. It'd be nice to think May will at least be able to present a coherent plan B to the House pretty soon after the MV without yet more bloody resignations.0
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No doubt it will be blamed on Brexit, rather than the management being ineffective.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile a non-Brexit story that looks set to be front and centre for a lot of the public:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1084568861213638656?s=210 -
A glorious night indeed!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe a 'Norway' deal.Benpointer said:
It's an omen for Remain. United have their mojo back and Remain is going to win in the end.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No other manager for United, including Busby and Ferguson, have won their first six gamesDavid_Evershed said:Man United win away at Spurs.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with a sixth straight win,
The Norway solution is working - for Man U.
United have after all always been very pro Europe :-)
I was there when Ole scored in the Camp Nou (May 1999) and it topped nearly 50 years supporting the club with the treble, the only English club to achieve the feat.
Here's hoping that night proves a metaphor for Brexit, with Remain wining in injury time!
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So a mere 80-90 to flip to their side. Piece of cake.Barnesian said:
Betfair most likely number voting Aye is around 225 implying around 390 voting No i.e. a majority against the government of around 165. This would be reduced by any abstentions.AlastairMeeks said:
He ranks about number 120 on my list of potential rebels. That implies just over 200 voting for the deal, so going down by more than 200.kle4 said:
It's being anticipated to be 150+ at least isn't it? The most optimistic I've seen was *around* 100 and many well over 200. How much bigger could it possibly get?AlastairMeeks said:
The only new name I’ve seen bruited who has not previously come out against is Tom Pursglove. If he comes out against, this sucker is going dahn bigstyle - he’d positioned himself till now very astutely to be able to vote for the deal with a heavy heart when required. If he’s not doing that, the defeat is likely to be bigger than anticipated.grabcocque said:Rumours circulating in Twitterland of at least 5 Tory PPSes planning to resign and vote against the deal.
I count another 13 Conservative MPs still unconfirmed. I’d assumed they’d all vote for the deal but that assumption now looks unsafe.0 -
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.0 -
I agree and I think it is likely. I don't think May could propose that but I suspect she would be relived if "parliament took control" and proposed it, and she would facilitate it.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.0 -
Pretty girl with crabs?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile a non-Brexit story that looks set to be front and centre for a lot of the public:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1084568861213638656?s=21
...I'll get my coat.0 -
The BBC mentioned 7pm earlier, alsoBig_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.0 -
Lice to see you, to see you lice!Charles said:
Pretty girl with crabs?AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile a non-Brexit story that looks set to be front and centre for a lot of the public:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1084568861213638656?s=21
...I'll get my coat.
I had to go pubic with that one...
I'll get my white coat.0 -
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.0 -
The Betfair rule is "This market refers to the FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY. Any vote on amendments do not count." I don't really understand that so would be reluctant to bet on it.Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
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That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.0 -
I think the cabinet has, but Mrs May hasn't.kle4 said:Wild idea here, but does anything think the Cabinet have even coalesced around a plan B yet? Unofficially of course. It'd be nice to think May will at least be able to present a coherent plan B to the House pretty soon after the MV without yet more bloody resignations.
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The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.0 -
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.0 -
Strongly disagree. The stuff in the WA is the stuff the EU wants. Under "No Deal" deals, they would get it in exchange for uncommitted ad hoc arrangements instead of the framework that gives us much more certainty and value. Also No Deal will be chaotic Legally there's no basis for reinstating a "transition period", although the EU may find a way round out. All this makes abandoning Brexit much more likely.Wulfrun_Phil said:
That is why it shouldn't be described as "No Deal". "Deal Still to be Agreed" would be more accurate, whether it turns out to be comprehensive free trade deal or something that falls short of that.FF43 said:
Entirely possible. I'm pretty sure we won't like No Deal if we get it and there will be a scramble to agree something, anything, to get out of it.viewcode said:Am I correct in thinking that people on this board now all feel that no-deal is now dead? Because I disagree: I think that if(!) the vote is lost this week then no-deal is entirely possible.
The UK's negotiating position would also be far stronger in negotiating that deal if we have left before it is agreed. There would be no point from the EU's point of view in continuing to offer next to nothing at its own expense in the hope that the UK would have second thoughts about leaving. Instead, the EU would for the first time have to deal in the reality of making something work that had already happened.
I can't stress this enough: the transition period is the Brexiteer's bestest, bestest friend. It allows the UK to be out and for people to think nothing has changed.0 -
0
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If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
110 is value.0 -
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Bizarrely, Corbyn and May are two peas in a Brexit pod. If May hadn't insisted on pursuing a one-party Brexit, they'd've worked out a Brexit compromise together and we wouldn't have arrived at the current harmful stalemate.0
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May’s set piece statements usually contain the cube root of fuck all.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think an amendment for a confirmation referendum at this stage will not succeed because it will not have Labour support for the reasons you give.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
It is possible that the deal is brought back in Plan B with a confirmation referendum, or it is even just possible on Tuesday evening, when it is clear that the Deal is going down big time, that the government agrees to the amendment or allows a free vote on it so it passes, even without Labour support. This way, May has some chance of her Deal being agreed by the people over the heads of MPs.0 -
Thanks for your clarificationTheScreamingEagles said:
That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.0 -
Yawn. Until the Tories split they will never stop this nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:KABOOM
I know he's not alone.
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1084574926496022529
But she won't do that before it is defeated. Like so many of the other factions even if she/they are willing to consider another option, their rhetoric and posturing has ensured they cannot back down from their present position until X happens, in her case losing the MV by historic proportions and being utterly humiliated. She'd make a fool of so many of her supporters to cave on a referendum in advance, and she took them for fools too much when she pulled the MV in the first place.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.
.
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What plan B do you think the cabinet has coalesced around?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the cabinet has, but Mrs May hasn't.kle4 said:Wild idea here, but does anything think the Cabinet have even coalesced around a plan B yet? Unofficially of course. It'd be nice to think May will at least be able to present a coherent plan B to the House pretty soon after the MV without yet more bloody resignations.
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The advantage of a Deal contingent on a referendum is that it is cut and dried, which isn't the case for most of the other alternatives. If the referendum carries the deal is already enabled and if it fails, it just requires a letter to be sent to Brussels immediately cancelling Article 50.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B larks?
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
I don't expect it to happen for political reasons but it could be the only option available to May if the Deal falls and No Deal is prevented.0 -
Weird then that he voted to invoke A50 and himself voted for "No Deal" as the end point?TheScreamingEagles said:KABOOM
I know he's not alone.
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/10845749264960225290 -
The liaison committee is going to take control
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/10845744227810426880 -
Pivot to Norway for now.Benpointer said:
What plan B do you think the cabinet has coalesced around?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the cabinet has, but Mrs May hasn't.kle4 said:Wild idea here, but does anything think the Cabinet have even coalesced around a plan B yet? Unofficially of course. It'd be nice to think May will at least be able to present a coherent plan B to the House pretty soon after the MV without yet more bloody resignations.
Then tweak it for the long term.
This would require an extension/revocation of Article 50.0 -
You don’t understand the Tory party. It wouldn’t be tolerated.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:How about this for Plan B
1. Theresa May decides that the only way she can get a deal through Parliament is with Labour support.
2. May goes back to the EU and renegotiates a WA with a permanent customs union
3. May puts the new WA to the vote, Labour vote against it because it doesn't pass their six tests. Tories, furious at May's betrayal, vote against it.
4. New WA defeated by a far larger numbers than than the backstop WA.
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
110 is value.0 -
Are all those amendments going to get as far as a vote?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.0 -
The Betfair rule doesn't include amendments. That's why it is 110.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
110 is value.0 -
Sure, I also think she will most likely cave in after a humiliating defeat rather than before, but she may just want to skip the humiliation by going straight to a #peoplesvote on the Deal. I reckoned £2 at 110 on 340+ ayes is value, but it also covers a number of other scenarios causing a major Labour revolt such as permanent customs union.kle4 said:
Yawn. Until the Tories split they will never stop this nonsense.TheScreamingEagles said:KABOOM
I know he's not alone.
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1084574926496022529
But she won't do that before it is defeated. Like so many of the other factions even if she/they are willing to consider another option, their rhetoric and posturing has ensured they cannot back down from their present position until X happens, in her case losing the MV by historic proportions and being utterly humiliated. She'd make a fool of so many of her supporters to cave on a referendum in advance, and she took them for fools too much when she pulled the MV in the first place.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.
.0 -
Will they all be able to be booked for Westminster Hour in order to resign so dramatically?AlastairMeeks said:
I acknowledge I am a pessimistic sort, but truly, why would it change anything in advance of the MV? Absent some drastic new indisputable legal facts, the reasons why the backstop is necessary/ok/a terrible injustice but cannot be avoided or whatever, have been well advanced to MPs by now. If they are persuadable at all on the deal then they must be waiting to see if other options get ruled out, not some new non binding promise or clarification, and the hard core of leavers and remainers have their reasons for saying no which would be entirely unaffected since they have their reasons in already, such as needing the WA itself changed, or that the people have changed their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Depends on Parliament but I'd expect so.Benpointer said:
Are all those amendments going to get as far as a vote?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.0 -
Maybe Bercow won't accept some of th...ahahahahaah.Benpointer said:
Are all those amendments going to get as far as a vote?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.0 -
They wouldn't get it without the UK getting much more back in return. As things stand under the WA, we have got very little in return for throwing in all our best cards prior to the next two years of negotiations, in which the UK has been set up to get well and truly shafted.FF43 said:The stuff in the WA is the stuff the EU wants. Under "No Deal" deals, they would get it in exchange for uncommitted ad hoc arrangements instead of the framework that gives us much more certainty and value.
0 -
I think that's a nice dream, but Corbyn's imperative was to ensure we Brexit without Labour being involved in anyway so they take no blame. May should have tried, but it seems seriously unlikely it would have worked, since Corbyn would essentially have just come up with tests that ensured anything the Tories suggested could not work.Dadge said:Bizarrely, Corbyn and May are two peas in a Brexit pod. If May hadn't insisted on pursuing a one-party Brexit, they'd've worked out a Brexit compromise together and we wouldn't have arrived at the current harmful stalemate.
0 -
-
My understanding is on the MV, so it doesnt matter whether it is amended or not, though it would have to be proposed by the government.Barnesian said:
The Betfair rule doesn't include amendments. That's why it is 110.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:
Well she also wants the deal brought into force, and a public vote at the least risks that and more likely ensures it won't. If it is going to be rejected might as well have it be by parliament. She can then do the same thing later as Corbyn and co will do, and claim their Brexit plan would have worked out great, had parliament but given them the chance.Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
It doesn’t really matter what May says is her Plan B if the amendment allows MPs to put forward their own plans on an equal basis as the Gov’s to be voted on in the same binding manner.grabcocque said:
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
110 is value.0 -
I hope so as it will show who votes for which amendment and the strength of the amendmentTheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on Parliament but I'd expect so.Benpointer said:
Are all those amendments going to get as far as a vote?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.
If a referendum on deal or remain won I would be content for TM to action it0 -
Not really news - we knew there was a statement coming tomorrow, and it would be odd if she didn't present it.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I know she is still working on trying to frighten the no dealers and unicorn dealers back on board, but that talk is only making the remain side stronger at the same time.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
0
-
Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?0
-
Sir Kevin Barron is backing Theresa May's deal.0
-
Another point I should have made. No Deal - really no deal - is only viable if the UK and EU don't have arrangements on anything at all, ever. Which is nonsense. The moment we say, we do actually need stuff is the moment when a bad deal is better than no deal.Wulfrun_Phil said:
They wouldn't get it without the UK getting much more back in return. As things stand under the WA, we have got very little in return for throwing in all our best cards prior to the next two years of negotiations, in which the UK has been set up to get well and truly shafted.FF43 said:The stuff in the WA is the stuff the EU wants. Under "No Deal" deals, they would get it in exchange for uncommitted ad hoc arrangements instead of the framework that gives us much more certainty and value.
0 -
At least she is at last talking down no deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
It probably won't, but it does provide handy cover for any leavers now inclined to fall in line.kle4 said:
Will they all be able to be booked for Westminster Hour in order to resign so dramatically?AlastairMeeks said:
I acknowledge I am a pessimistic sort, but truly, why would it change anything in advance of the MV? Absent some drastic new indisputable legal facts, the reasons why the backstop is necessary/ok/a terrible injustice but cannot be avoided or whatever, have been well advanced to MPs by now. If they are persuadable at all on the deal then they must be waiting to see if other options get ruled out, not some new non binding promise or clarification, and the hard core of leavers and remainers have their reasons for saying no which would be entirely unaffected since they have their reasons in already, such as needing the WA itself changed, or that the people have changed their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
Not that proof were needed, but Gavin Williamson is a bell end of the highest order.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10845766016926146560 -
The Betfair rule states "This market refers to the FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY. Any vote on amendments do not count.". Do you understand it? I don't.Foxy said:
My understanding is on the MV, so it doesnt matter whether it is amended or not, though it would have to be proposed by the government.Barnesian said:
The Betfair rule doesn't include amendments. That's why it is 110.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
.grabcocque said:
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
110 is value.
There will be a series of amendments, some of which may pass, (but do not count). The final vote will be either on the unamended motion if no amendments pass (FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY??) or the amended motion, ... but amendments don't count !?0 -
1) Caring about party unity more than Brexit would seem highly out of characterTOPPING said:Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?
2) Surely in order for a GE to seem on the cards enough to need to be avoided either the DUP or a bunch of Tories have to look like they would back a Labour vote of no confidence
3) Antidealers, not without justification, could say opposing the deal would be a vote winner, and a GE with a stronger brexit position would be a good thing
4) Why would no deal resignations prompt such action from anti dealers, many of whom resigned or supported the deal resignations. "I'm so against the deal I resigned/publicly backed those who resigned. But now some of my opponents might resign if their policy fails, I guess I better back it"0 -
Not really - likely knows the remainers will force through a referendum and do the work for herGIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
The churn of votes in his seat is something to behold, I think it explains his backing of the deal:TheScreamingEagles said:Sir Kevin Barron is backing Theresa May's deal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rother_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Possibly, but I think she really is trying to get the Headbangers on board. They are the ones not voting for her deal.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
It has been long assumed she would pivot to a referendum at the least, given most of her tactics have seemed to be talking to the country rather than trying to win over parliamentary factions (she has talked to them a whole bunch though), but it will be an epic u-turn.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?
The Tories are in no shape to fight a GE - 100 Tory MPs who voted down her deal would then stand under a promise to approve it after a GE? Or however many who would resign if no deal becomes policy would stand under a promise to go ahead without a deal?0 -
The Speaker will say "All those in favour say Aye. All against say No". If voices are raised for both Aye and No, the Speaker will say "Division" and a vote will be taken. If no-one shouts Aye (or No), then there is no need for a vote and the Ayes (or Noes) will have it. I suspect all the amendments will be contested so there will be a Division and vote on each of them.Benpointer said:
Are all those amendments going to get as far as a vote?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's when the first vote on the amendments takes place, there's so far 13 amendments that need to be voted on first.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky just said vote is 7.00pm tuesday nightTheScreamingEagles said:
Division is expected to be called at 10pm with the result due at circa 10.15pm.kle4 said:Any idea what time the Deal gets mullered on Tuesday? I doubt I'll be able to watch it live, but as many as can should do so, it will be a moment of history to see the first formal step toward us remaining.
However this may move if more amendments are accepted.
The final vote on the Meaningful Vote is scheduled for 10pm.0 -
Yeah I suppose so but while I know that the deal will pass before March 29 I still can't see how the fuck it happens.kle4 said:
1) Caring about party unity more than Brexit would seem highly out of characterTOPPING said:Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?
2) Surely in order for a GE to seem on the cards enough to need to be avoided either the DUP or a bunch of Tories have to look like they would back a Labour vote of no confidence
3) Antidealers, not without justification, could say opposing the deal would be a vote winner, and a GE with a stronger brexit position would be a good thing
4) Why would no deal resignations prompt such action from anti dealers, many of whom resigned or supported the deal resignations. "I'm so against the deal I resigned/publicly backed those who resigned. But now some of my opponents might resign if their policy fails, I guess I better back it"0 -
This has been her problem all along. She is telling two completely contradictory pack of lies to to different audiences. Whatever she says to pull one set closer to supporting her shit deal strengthens the other lot.kle4 said:
I know she is still working on trying to frighten the no dealers and unicorn dealers back on board, but that talk is only making the remain side stronger at the same time.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I don't think that a general election will solve anything, as most candidates would still be anti-Brexit (even if they are keeping it quiet). The chance of getting a majority of pro-Brexit MPs is vanishingly small. So any likely near future Parliament is likely to have a Remain/BINO majority, and we would be back to square one.GIN1138 said:Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
When you figure it out let me know, since I see no realistic path to it. But with Sir Kevin Barron on board May is about 1.2% of the way toward winning the vote on the deal, so maybe it is not so bad.TOPPING said:
Yeah I suppose so but while I know that the deal will pass before March 29 I still can't see how the fuck it happens.kle4 said:
1) Caring about party unity more than Brexit would seem highly out of characterTOPPING said:Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?
2) Surely in order for a GE to seem on the cards enough to need to be avoided either the DUP or a bunch of Tories have to look like they would back a Labour vote of no confidence
3) Antidealers, not without justification, could say opposing the deal would be a vote winner, and a GE with a stronger brexit position would be a good thing
4) Why would no deal resignations prompt such action from anti dealers, many of whom resigned or supported the deal resignations. "I'm so against the deal I resigned/publicly backed those who resigned. But now some of my opponents might resign if their policy fails, I guess I better back it"0 -
The dreamland Peoples Vote wishers don’t understand that a general election is much more likely - precisely because it is far easier to legislate for.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
I think she'd prefer a referendum to a GE, but she'll probably want a Deal versus No Deal referendum (to continue her blackmail strategy and honouring the first referendum) but it won't get a majority in parliament.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
I interpret that the MV vote is the one independent of whether any of the ammendments pass or fail the vote.Barnesian said:
The Betfair rule states "This market refers to the FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY. Any vote on amendments do not count.". Do you understand it? I don't.Foxy said:
My understanding is on the MV, so it doesnt matter whether it is amended or not, though it would have to be proposed by the government.Barnesian said:
The Betfair rule doesn't include amendments. That's why it is 110.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:
I don't understand this 'pass the deal contingent on a referendum to confirm it' suggestion for the MV. Leaving aside all the comments that a referendum would be a terrible idea, since of course the government would say that at this moment in time, how exactly is it better for them to pre-concede that? It doesn't seem more likely to guarantee the deal is on the ballot, since something has to go up against remain anyway, and given Labour are currently still following policy of pretending they can do a renegotiation why would they accept a deal confirmed by referendum before they've even gone through their motions of defeating the deal, then trying out a GE and so on?Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
.grabcocque said:
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
I presume that's why you consider it unlikely, but it seems really really unlikely because it cuts of political angles too soon.
110 is value.
There will be a series of amendments, some of which may pass, (but do not count). The final vote will be either on the unamended motion if no amendments pass (FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY??) or the amended motion, ... but amendments don't count !?
I thought it worth £2 at 110. There are other scenarios that might lead to lots of opposition MPs voting the Deal through.0 -
I think Barron is more concerned about No Brexit, If you add the 2017 figures for Tories and UKIP together they are almost a match for his vote. UKIP nearly got 30% of the vote in 2015! Barron is vulnerable to a No Brexit and he is just covering his arse!kle4 said:
When you figure it out let me know, since I see no realistic path to it. But with Sir Kevin Barron on board May is about 1.2% of the way toward winning the vote on the deal, so maybe it is not so bad.TOPPING said:
Yeah I suppose so but while I know that the deal will pass before March 29 I still can't see how the fuck it happens.kle4 said:
1) Caring about party unity more than Brexit would seem highly out of characterTOPPING said:Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?
2) Surely in order for a GE to seem on the cards enough to need to be avoided either the DUP or a bunch of Tories have to look like they would back a Labour vote of no confidence
3) Antidealers, not without justification, could say opposing the deal would be a vote winner, and a GE with a stronger brexit position would be a good thing
4) Why would no deal resignations prompt such action from anti dealers, many of whom resigned or supported the deal resignations. "I'm so against the deal I resigned/publicly backed those who resigned. But now some of my opponents might resign if their policy fails, I guess I better back it"0 -
Indeed.Mortimer said:
The dreamland Peoples Vote wishers don’t understand that a general election is much more likely - precisely because it is far easier to legislate for.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?0 -
It's not "trespassing". The Spanish Navy has every right under UNCLOS III to exercise non-disruptive passage through British territorial waters just has the RN has the same right in Spanish waters.TheScreamingEagles said:Not that proof were needed, but Gavin Williamson is a bell end of the highest order.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084576601692614656
If we do end up in a war I do hope some aide-de-camp has the presence of mind to turn his sidearm on The Fireplace Salesman as the opening salvo of the conflict.0 -
It sounds more like the whole argument is boiling away very quickly to be down to no deal or remain - no more, no less.0
-
That would also be covered in the 340+ band, if there were to be a GE as the price of Corbyn backing the Deal. It would have to be binding, so less likely than a #peoplesvote.Mortimer said:
The dreamland Peoples Vote wishers don’t understand that a general election is much more likely - precisely because it is far easier to legislate for.GIN1138 said:
Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?TheScreamingEagles said:
Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?
May likes a bit of a dramatic surprise.0 -
Of course the irony is that if the WA does pass that would in fact be leaving with no deal. We still need to negotiate that. 97.3% of the problem is that the idiots are confusing the WA with the final agreement.kle4 said:
When you figure it out let me know, since I see no realistic path to it. But with Sir Kevin Barron on board May is about 1.2% of the way toward winning the vote on the deal, so maybe it is not so bad.TOPPING said:
Yeah I suppose so but while I know that the deal will pass before March 29 I still can't see how the fuck it happens.kle4 said:
1) Caring about party unity more than Brexit would seem highly out of characterTOPPING said:Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?
2) Surely in order for a GE to seem on the cards enough to need to be avoided either the DUP or a bunch of Tories have to look like they would back a Labour vote of no confidence
3) Antidealers, not without justification, could say opposing the deal would be a vote winner, and a GE with a stronger brexit position would be a good thing
4) Why would no deal resignations prompt such action from anti dealers, many of whom resigned or supported the deal resignations. "I'm so against the deal I resigned/publicly backed those who resigned. But now some of my opponents might resign if their policy fails, I guess I better back it"0 -
Evening all.
I've been a bit busy over the weekend. Has this Brexit malarkey been sorted yet?0 -
I think Brenda had better brace herself - We could be in a general election by the end of the week!
0 -
Yup, we hold all the cardsRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all.
I've been a bit busy over the weekend. Has this Brexit malarkey been sorted yet?0 -
Perhaps. In which case it would have been clearer if Betfair has said the FINAL MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY.Foxy said:
I interpret that the MV vote is the one independent of whether any of the amendments pass or fail the vote.Barnesian said:
The Betfair rule states "This market refers to the FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY. Any vote on amendments do not count.". Do you understand it? I don't.Foxy said:
My understanding is on the MV, so it doesnt matter whether it is amended or not, though it would have to be proposed by the government.Barnesian said:
The Betfair rule doesn't include amendments. That's why it is 110.Foxy said:
If May wants it passed, that is what she has to do, and she knows it.Mortimer said:
Dream on Foxy.Foxy said:
The vast majority of opposition MPs would back Deal subject to a #peoplesvote. The leadership would have to acquiesce.kle4 said:Foxy said:
I wouldn't rule out a dramatic concession such as a #peoplesvote to pass the deal with Labour votes.kle4 said:Foxy said:
If May wants the Deal passed, then all she needs to do is to make acceptance conditional on winning a #Peoplesvote. It would pass with a three figure majority. Simples.AmpfieldAndy said:
.grabcocque said:
Indeed I have just had the price of a pint on the Betfair Exchange at Ayes greater than 340 at 110. Sure it is unlikely, but not that unlikely.
110 is value.
There will be a series of amendments, some of which may pass, (but do not count). The final vote will be either on the unamended motion if no amendments pass (FIRST MEANINGFUL VOTE ONLY??) or the amended motion, ... but amendments don't count !?
I thought it worth £2 at 110. There are other scenarios that might lead to lots of opposition MPs voting the Deal through.0 -
Off to bed now, but can I heartily recommend going to see "Stan and Ollie". It is a great film, and amazing performances all round, heartwarming and poignant without being schmalzy. It has put me in a fine mood for the week.0
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That's true!TOPPING said:
Of course the irony is that if the WA does pass that would in fact be leaving with no deal. We still need to negotiate that. 97.3% of the problem is that the idiots are confusing the WA with the final agreement.kle4 said:
When you figure it out let me know, since I see no realistic path to it. But with Sir Kevin Barron on board May is about 1.2% of the way toward winning the vote on the deal, so maybe it is not so bad.TOPPING said:
Yeah I suppose so but while I know that the deal will pass before March 29 I still can't see how the fuck it happens.kle4 said:
1) Caring about party unity more than Brexit would seem highly out of characterTOPPING said:Evening all so as more no deal resignation threats surface does this give the previous anti-dealers sufficient cover to back the deal in the name of party unity and avoiding a GE?
2) Surely in order for a GE to seem on the cards enough to need to be avoided either the DUP or a bunch of Tories have to look like they would back a Labour vote of no confidence
3) Antidealers, not without justification, could say opposing the deal would be a vote winner, and a GE with a stronger brexit position would be a good thing
4) Why would no deal resignations prompt such action from anti dealers, many of whom resigned or supported the deal resignations. "I'm so against the deal I resigned/publicly backed those who resigned. But now some of my opponents might resign if their policy fails, I guess I better back it"0 -
Ugh! What a drama queen. If he wanted to resign he could have done it weeks ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
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I hear German car makers have red hot phones, and Italian prosecco exporters.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, we hold all the cardsRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all.
I've been a bit busy over the weekend. Has this Brexit malarkey been sorted yet?0 -
It was sorted, but we needed you to seal the deal, but you weren’t there and it fell apart.Richard_Nabavi said:Evening all.
I've been a bit busy over the weekend. Has this Brexit malarkey been sorted yet?0 -
Wha about Mike Hunt?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Shouldn't he wait a bit longer? It might be delayed again yet!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Time to wax...lyrically.Jonathan said:
Wha about Mike Hunt?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Be under no doubt: we can do deals with our trading partners, and we can do them quickly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, we hold all the cardsRichard_Nabavi said:Evening all.
I've been a bit busy over the weekend. Has this Brexit malarkey been sorted yet?0 -
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184
This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.0 -
He's a PPS.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
And if you've lost them you've lost everybody!NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
At this rate even Larry The Cat will be resigning.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
No - it is happening on tuesday and I think TM will be relieved to be over the vote and let the HOC take controlBenpointer said:
Shouldn't he wait a bit longer? It might be delayed again yet!TheScreamingEagles said:
That seems to be her message tonight but maybe she will say I have done my best, so farewell, its up to you now.
Mind you, that would be out of character0 -
He was a PPS at DIT at least some time ago.NickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Wood switches to cider in new blow to MayNickPalmer said:
Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!TheScreamingEagles said:0
This discussion has been closed.