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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in Brussels
For most of the modern era Italy has been treated as something of a lightweight in world affairs despite being one of the world’s largest economies. This has often been on the back of weak and unpredictable government which has stopped Italy taking a wider role.
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I hope Santa Grieve gets you all something nice.
I'll believe it when I see it. The EU has seen off the likes of Salvini in its time, I am sure.
If you believe that of any referendum, especially on a contentious topic in a divided nation, you are a gullibe twat and deserve everything you get.
This is what Manfred Weber said to David Cameron:
"The EU is based on an ever closer union of European peoples. That is set out in the treaties. It is not negotiable for us... We cannot sell the soul of Europe... if we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill."
Another interesting article, Mr. Brooke.
How about 43 years?
The average for OECD countries is 34%.
Bloody Italians not paying their taxes.
The ENF group on this polling increases in size from 40 to 60 - presumably due to Lega in Italy, and the ECR drops by over 20 seats due to the departure of the British conservatives. The UKIP/Five star EFDD group will presumably disappear as it will be unviable so 5 star will need to find new allies. And the other groups barely change - albeit the Liberals might go up a bit if En Marche join with them.
So while there will more populists the parliament will still be controlled by the EPP backed up by the socialists and Liberals sharing the jobs.
https://www.politico.eu/interactive/european-elections-2019-poll-of-polls/
https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1084372833965432833
There still hasn't.
Ireland’s for example has been artificially elevated so much in recent years that their debt to GDP has fallen from well over 100% to somewhere in the 60s, without any great improvement in their debt position.
Conversely, no one really has good figures on Italy’s grey/black economy.
Nonetheless, those figures are instructive.
But the historical data does I think indicate that Italy has long been well below the mean of Western European countries on this metric.
The issue being not the headline tax rates but the gap between what ought to be collected and what is collected.
Next week, Hungary?
I do hope so.
Co-operation between these various right-leaning parties is all about trying to bring the European institutions to heel, surely? I don't think we're going to see the declaration of the Polish-Italian Commonwealth any time soon.
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=en&mode=lst&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1297534
Guardian readers have been opening their weekend paper to find supplements wrapped in a compostable material made from potato starch. The paper says it ditched its polythene covers after feedback from readers.
Advice on the wrapping says it should not be recycled but disposed of on a compost heap or in a food waste bin.
The change, which the Guardian says will increase its production costs, has been introduced in London, Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Norfolk and Suffolk.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46849937
The reason that Brexit is floundering is rooted in the mixed motives of the Brexit coalition, the protectionist nativists like warnock, and the freewheeling globalists. Does anyone think Warnock cares about trade agreements? or indeed trade at all! Yet his is the voice that we hear in the shops, cafes and hospital waiting rooms.
I think the national leaders are happy to have EU leaders be relatively unknown functionaries. And that creates a tension between wanting the EU to be more democratic, and not wanting an EU demos to elect people who don't do what they're told.
What would be interesting is to know the split on black economy in any particular country between (i) the legal apart from the tax evasion aspect (construction, driving, catering etc) and (ii) the activities which are illegal, e.g. vice and drugs.
Because for (i) the problem is missing tax revenue, whereas with (ii) it is wider than that.
It is cited as a reference point - not that it is binding law on the UK in this context.
Future integration efforts will be done:
1) Via fiscal union for the Eurozone by fiscal compacts
2) Via "enhanced cooperation" procedure so that small groups of nations integrate further voluntarily without needing all member states to approve. France and Germany wish to use that for enhanced military cooperation.
3) The passerelle clause
But thankfully countered by the equally influential Jamie Carragher throwing himself behind the People's Vote.
A high scoring draw.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/theresa-may-rejecting-brexit-deal-would-be-unforgivable-breach-of-trust
Tax harmonisation.
That's where it's headed.
And if there is to be a second referendum, that's what should be on the ballot paper.
Merry old soul? ... Do hope so!
Italy and taxes - When I used to hang out there it was quite rare to meet somebody who DID pay tax. And what was striking was how little resentment there was from those who did against those who didn't. That's just the way we do things here, seemed to be the view.
Not saying that it can’t be done. Nor even that it might not be desirable. But it is much harder than people suppose. There is an obvious country we could look to as an example - the US. Understanding how a demos and the political culture and institutions which flowed from that happened and what lessons might be learnt would be a much more useful task than simply thinking that passing a Directive in Brussels and insisting that everyone must follow it is the answer.
On topic, a very interesting header from @Alanbrooke. Thank you.
Italians have generally been very keen on the EU because it was seen as:-
(a) generally much better than their own corrupt, venal and incompetent political class which, with rare exceptions, had generally been a failure and a disappointment since unification; and
(b) another source of money, goodies, posts and favours to be distributed to clients i.e. Italian clientilismo but on a European scale.
Now that same EU is seen as a bit of a trap which is not helping their own politicians make the changes that are needed. Italians know perfectly well that it is their politicians which are the problem but the EU is not providing the escape route which it previously did. And they have not been respected by other countries. That means a lot to them. Now others are having to pay attention to Italy.
Though to be perfectly fair, if the Prime Minister thinks her Withdrawal Agreement is the best option then there's nothing particularly wrong with not having an inferior option in reserve. Perhaps she intends to resign instead?
If it's obvious that her deal can't be saved (especially if the Speaker allows procedural innovations to enable the rebels to take over the Parliamentary timetable) then I think she probably ought to do so.
"So what's your expertise?" "I was once an understudy to an actor who played a statesman in a B-film. I played a surgeon once, shall I advise you on brain surgery? I think I might be quite good at it."
The Italian state has often been seen as an imposition - by the French during unification, by the North on the South (with a pretty nasty civil war following thereafter in the south, which is not much known about but still festers), by the US in post-war years. And as something which is corrupt and venal and therefore as a source of favours and goods. And as something whcih has at times been in hock to organised crime - see Andreotti. And very bureaucratic - which creates lots of job opportunities but also a lot of rules to get round.
Why then would you willingly hand over your money to such an organisation? Why would you trust it to operate fairly and honestly? No - you come to an arrangement with it: l’arte d’arrangiarsi. You find a way round it.
Chicken and egg of course because with such an attitude it is hard to see how you can ever establish a trustworthy state.
But, remember, it took a long time for our state to go from a court handing out favours to one with an honest and impartial administration and (generally) honest politicians.
Specifically, it was a goal that is not to be taken literally, that is accepted as not practical, but which is retained as a reminder of where our heart lies.
The United States of Europe is an 'aim' or a 'goal' for the EU in the same way.
One day they will do a Tony and replace it with something anodyne and meaningless.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1084469004838801409
Have a read.
Personally, I think the British public would roundly reject any referendum that tied us explicitly to a Euro army or surrendering tax powers to Brussels. But YMMV.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1084468612356808706
At the first vote, it looks more like the morgue versus the cemetery.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1084491855696404480
since you write articles yourself you are probably aware as to the difficulties of trying to keep articles to bite size chunks and struggling to stop them being novels.
In reading up on Italy what struck me vividly was the impact of EU austerity in Southern Europe. The more you look at it there is the danger of the whole social fabric unpicking.- high youth unemployment, crashing birth rates endemic poverty. Its a continent tragedy,
Yet - when it came to unification - Garibaldi was seen by the South as a maverick being used by the French to impose a distant Savoy king on them, much to their disgust. And they were then told how backward they were, despite Italy’s first railway having been built by the Bourbon Kings. So they saw the state as something to be plundered rather than anything more noble. And frankly so did the Italian political parties - and the rest of Italy. The Mani Pulite investigations in the early 1990’s revealed a rottenness at the heart of Italian public life, which the years since then have done little to improve.
But much tax is evaded by the non-declaration of economic activity. The effect of that is a lower tax take and (probably and ironically) a higher official tax as % of GDP than would otherwise be the case.
This has been a bigger problem for Italy than for almost any other OECD country.
Framing is absolutely key. If the Leave campaign runs on democracy and against the political class, it has a good chance. If it is seen as Theresa May’s deal and ERGers sabotage it by calling for a boycott, prospects are less favourable.
Put Cummings back in the saddle, and let’s see what happens.
‘Give the treasonous bast*rds a good kicking, vote leave”
“Informed consent. Leave means leave, even when they insist you really meant remain”