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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Italian Job – Part Two: Nessun Dorma – sleepless nights in

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    DanSmith said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184

    This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.

    How much are these amendments led by the person tabling them, or are some so collectively drafted that the tabler is picked almost at random I wonder? I am curious since he is my MP and it is now twice he has come up in reporting tonight.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!
    And if you've lost them you've lost everybody!
    Lord Falconer is hanging on in there
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!
    At this rate even Larry The Cat will be resigning. :D
    Larry knows his duty is to the nation, whoever is PM.

    I would advise the PM to take more of his advice though, it will probably work out better than the last 2 years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    DanSmith said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184

    This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.

    Isn't that amendment all about the backstop, or am I missing something?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!
    He's a PPS.

    Permanently pissed somewhere?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184

    This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.

    How much are these amendments led by the person tabling them, or are some so collectively drafted that the tabler is picked almost at random I wonder? I am curious since he is my MP and it is now twice he has come up in reporting tonight.
    The bottom of this link shows the list of amendments tgether with the supporters for each (albeit this latest amendment hasn't been added to the list yet):

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GIN1138 said:

    Reading that it sounds like she could be preparing the case for a general election?

    Obviously she know's her deal will be voted down but this reads like she's setting out the case fir why she's got to take her deal to the people as Parliament is being so unreasonable?
    I don't think she generally optimizes for things more than a day away, I wouldn't read anything into this apart from what side she thinks she can get votes on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    GIN1138 said:

    Ugh! What a drama queen. If he wanted to resign he could have done it weeks ago.

    Yes. People try to defend it as 'trying to change things from within' and all that, but come on, he's a PPS, he wasn't in at the highest level where any possibility of changing things was going to occur. Either he hadn't made up his mind yet, somehow, or he wanted to be more dramatic. Nevertheless, yet more proof of just how dead May's deal is, as people are still coming out against it.

    Given how certain a defeat it is, I do have to respect those opposition politicians backing it. There can be no personal benefit to them doing so after all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited January 2019
    Right, off to bed for me.

    Looking forward to a truly historic week ahead :smile:

    'Night all!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Half a league, half a league,
    Half a league onward,
    All in the valley of Death
    Rode the six hundred and fifty.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ugh! What a drama queen. If he wanted to resign he could have done it weeks ago.

    Yes. People try to defend it as 'trying to change things from within' and all that, but come on, he's a PPS, he wasn't in at the highest level where any possibility of changing things was going to occur. Either he hadn't made up his mind yet, somehow, or he wanted to be more dramatic. Nevertheless, yet more proof of just how dead May's deal is, as people are still coming out against it.

    Given how certain a defeat it is, I do have to respect those opposition politicians backing it. There can be no personal benefit to them doing so after all.
    Barron is backing it but only because of the electoral threat IMO. In fact the only reason in my mind why any opposition will back it is down to electoral politics. Even the LD guy is only backing it to prevent a backlash in Eastbourne.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I am half-tempted to hide from political news until this time next week.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!
    At this rate even Larry The Cat will be resigning. :D
    Larry knows his duty is to the nation, whoever is PM.

    I would advise the PM to take more of his advice though, it will probably work out better than the last 2 years.
    I think Larry the Cat has been replaced a few times now. For some reason the Cats don't last very long, they usually end up as mince meat on the main road after several buses have crushed them. At least the magpie's have something to eat!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    RobD said:

    DanSmith said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184

    This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.

    Isn't that amendment all about the backstop, or am I missing something?
    It isn't a backstop if it is time limited. So the EU wont agree to it.

    More time wasting crap.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    RoyalBlue said:

    I am half-tempted to hide from political news until this time next week.

    When you re-emerge French will be our official language and it will be required by law to wear lederhosen in public areas.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    TOPPING said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I am half-tempted to hide from political news until this time next week.

    When you re-emerge French will be our official language and it will be required by law to wear lederhosen in public areas.
    Rather than secretly at home.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Saying "I support the WA only subject to some criteria that the withdrawal agreement doesn't meet" is the same thing as saying "I don't support the withdrawal agreement".

    That said, it would be HILARIOUS if that amendment passed because then May would have to go back to the EU and explain herself to a furious Council.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Resign from what? According to Wikipedia he's just chair of the All-Party Beer Group!
    I have to admit I am not familiar with his name.

    More interested in the "others to follow"

    Sounds like we have been here before.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    We now go live to Brexit.

    "Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson’s plan to scare away Spanish vessels off Gibraltar by using paintballs"

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8185701/gavin-williamson-spanish-gibraltar-paintballs/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:
    Wildly off topic - in the industry I work in there was once a guy called Richard Head.........


  • William was right and you and I both know it. We know precisely what to expect if we pull Article 50 because it's identical to what we had before we invoked it. We don't know precisely or even generally what to expect if we go out because we are still arguing over what we want.

    I know that you and others don't really care what happens because the prize is leaving as a moral principle. A good friend of mine makes the same argument. The rest of us would quite like to know what is on the other side of the doorway before we step through

    That is simply deluded. The EU is evolving very quickly and it is beyond the ability of the UK to do anything about that. The idea that it would be the same if we just cancelled Brexit is fanciful.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Off to bed now, but can I heartily recommend going to see "Stan and Ollie". It is a great film, and amazing performances all round, heartwarming and poignant without being schmalzy. It has put me in a fine mood for the week.

    Well, until Tuesday evening ........

    In all seriousness sounds like a good film
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Foxy said:

    Off to bed now, but can I heartily recommend going to see "Stan and Ollie". It is a great film, and amazing performances all round, heartwarming and poignant without being schmalzy. It has put me in a fine mood for the week.

    Wholly endorse that. (And I normally loathe Steve Coogan.)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Rumours are there's ~5 Tory PPSes planning to resign to vote against the MV.

    I'm still holding a candle for Penny Mordaunt to do the dirty. What's the lastest a cabinet minister could plausibly resign before the MV and still be within the spirit of the ministerial code?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    IanB2 said:

    At least she is at last talking down no deal.
    Its almost like - she never intended to leave......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Saying "I support the WA only subject to some criteria that the withdrawal agreement doesn't meet" is the same thing as saying "I don't support the withdrawal agreement".

    Well exactly
    Floater said:

    IanB2 said:

    At least she is at last talking down no deal.
    Its almost like - she never intended to leave......
    She would never have fought this hard for this long if she did not intend to leave.She doesn't have the competence to have had this mess be a part of the plan to enable remain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576

    Given that the next Labour government is in all likelihood going to be propped up by the SNP, I suggest that reaching out to Tory leavers is a mug's game and a half for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019

    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576

    I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position. Even this morning apparently leavers thought he threatened to remain and remainers that he would definitely leave. He's such a regular politician on this issue.

    Doesn't make the path to an outright majority easy, as that thread points out, but his delayed approach has been very effective to date.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576

    I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.
    You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...

    B L A I R I T E
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576

    I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.
    You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...

    B L A I R I T E
    Perish the thought.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    kle4 said:

    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576

    I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.
    You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...

    B L A I R I T E
    :lol:

    But surely Magic Grandpa isn't a triangulator?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited January 2019
    How likely is it that this liaison committee being talked about in the press could force the government into a second referendum with a choice on offer being only between mays deal and remain in the plot being hatched with nick boles and Oliver letwin
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    kle4 said:

    V interesting thread.

    "A marginal strategy requires Labour to appeal to Conservative Leavers."

    https://twitter.com/MarriottNigel/status/1084539848231448576

    I don't criticise Corbyn for his vague replies. He's a intentionally obfuscating, cynically partisan genius when it comes to his Brexit position.
    You might even go as far as to say his eternally triangulating, pragmatism-over-principle approach to trying to find a middle ground Brexit might even be called...

    B L A I R I T E
    He could be quite an effective politician if he cared as little about everything else as he does about brexit
  • Headline in tomorrow's Sunil:

    24 hours to save Brexit!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    kle4 said:

    DanSmith said:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1084585903316701184

    This will at least make people realise that its not just the backstop that is preventing this from getting a majority.

    How much are these amendments led by the person tabling them, or are some so collectively drafted that the tabler is picked almost at random I wonder? I am curious since he is my MP and it is now twice he has come up in reporting tonight.
    No, usually a lot of thought goes into the top 6 names on the list, as they appear more prominently on the order paper, and the lead person will usually be the one called to speak on it.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    What would stop May opting for a GE to clear the impasse?

    If it is made clear that any Conservative candidate standing at the election must be willing to vote for the deal as it will be explicitly promised in the manifesto that all candidates will support the deal.

    Those fervent remainer Conservative MP's would have the option then of making a decision to stand or not.

    If she gets a majority then the deal passes, if she doesn't then Corbyn can be invited to navigate the exit from the EU (or not).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Stopping g brexit requires primary legislation, it's entirely the government s gift still
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    kjohnw said:

    How likely is it that this liaison committee being talked about in the press could force the government into a second referendum with a choice on offer being only between mays deal and remain in the plot being hatched with nick boles and Oliver letwin

    Who would campaign for the deal?

    It would in all likelihood result in millions fewer voting and remain being the foregone conclusion.

    A result without any legitimacy.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    SunnyJim said:

    kjohnw said:

    How likely is it that this liaison committee being talked about in the press could force the government into a second referendum with a choice on offer being only between mays deal and remain in the plot being hatched with nick boles and Oliver letwin

    Who would campaign for the deal?
    TMay
    SunnyJim said:

    It would in all likelihood result in millions fewer voting and remain being the foregone conclusion.

    A result without any legitimacy.

    Dunno, Remain turnout would be through the roof and Leave turnout could go either way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    They did say "never seriously been questioned"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,734
    RobD said:

    They did say "never seriously been questioned"
    May herself voted against it after the referendum.
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1084620854498074625
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    edited January 2019
    The first of those was Mrs May voting for an amendment to the Bill. What was the amendment?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.

    Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
    As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
    On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.

    That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.

    It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
    I agree.

    The problem , as one journalist put it, is if you transformed water into wine for the ERG, they'd complain about the vintage.
    The ERG demonstrate the truth of the adage "don't let great be the enemy of good."
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.

    Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
    As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
    On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.

    That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.

    It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
    I agree.

    The problem , as one journalist put it, is if you transformed water into wine for the ERG, they'd complain about the vintage.
    The ERG demonstrate the truth of the adage "don't let great be the enemy of good."
    Except for the absence of anything great or good.

    NEW THREAD
This discussion has been closed.