Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
What is a 'Brexit supporting candidate' in this context? The ultra remainer Tories have been especially effective in some parliamentary wrangling, but neither the deal nor no deal would pass even if all of them were on board. They are not the biggest obstacle. The ERG won't go into an election promising they personally will vote for the deal, not the hard core of them at any rate. So nothing is gained even if the Tories somehow win unless those they gain are all moderate loyalists.
The Remainer Conservatives just voted with Labour in a couple of recent votes and are now the swing votes in parliament.
Hardly. They are swing on some issues. They could, theoretically, bring down the government. But your scenario was about Brexit supporting candidates for a GE, and that means passing some form of Brexit, and the biggest problem there is 100 Tory MPs who will not back the deal, and at least some number of the other 200 who will not back no deal.
There's no point in a GE for the Tories on the basis of supporting Brexit unless they agree on what Brexit they will back. And they cannot agree on that.
They might not have a choice. Given that the DUP won’t support May’s deal because of the backstop and Grieve and Co can’t very well plot to seize control of Gov business as he is reported to be trying once May loses, he and his rebels can hardly support the Gov in a VONC so Corbyn could well succeed.
He might. But an election still solves nothing unless the intractable in the party become tractable. Why would they? For the sake of Brexit? If that were all it took the deal would not be about to be so comprehensively humiliated.
If Grieve took control of Gov business he could attempt to revoke A 50 which is clearly his intention. In those circumstances he has done his job and I doubt he is worrying about the possibility a Corbyn Gov then. He would probably be indifferent to an election given his fractured relationship with his association.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
Interesting. Though Corbyn's VoNC will be a useful oppertunity to pledge loyalty. I bet every single Tory MP votes against it.
I think you're right about Corbyn's VoNC. It's what the Hard Remainers start doing next that will bring about the denouement for the Government.
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?
Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.
The common purpose in Switzerland is mostly the desire of the respective linguistic groups NOT to be their respective bigger neighbour. Although the issue in the French speaking part is or was about religion.
And note, the Swiss put a lot of effort into keeping linguistic tensions to a minimum.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
Interesting. Though Corbyn's VoNC will be a useful oppertunity to pledge loyalty. I bet every single Tory MP votes against it.
I think you're right about Corbyn's VoNC. It's what the Hard Remainers start doing next that will bring about the denouement for the Government.
How is that consistent with your prediction below? Seems incompatible to me. Not convinced you’re right about how Remainer rebels will vote. Can’t very well plot to seize control of Gov business and then support the Gov they have tried to neuter.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
She’s very slippery. She’s right that the protest she suffered probably moved over into a public order offence and was quite unpleasant and alarming. But she’s trying to conflate that with the loud protests on the green making it difficult for the broadcasters (on her last broadcast with sky news she called people who voted leave fascists and nazis). Because sky news are having difficulty getting the sound levels right does not make it some how a contravention or free speech, and does not mean that this is also some convoluted offence. Utter nonsense.
You obviously didn't see it. You'd be thrown out of a football match if you behaved like that.
Interesting observation from Betfair: The odds of there being no In/Out EU Referendum by the end of 2020 are exactly the same as the odds of Donald Trump being the GOP Nominee in 2020. Fair?
If I had to stake my house on one of those two things occurring I'd take Trump as nominee definitely. Neither are certain, but I'm just not convinced the impeachment/otherwise topple Trump prospects are as good as the People's Vote prospects - and I don't think we'll have a People's Vote.
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?
Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.
But to be fair Switzerland hardly have a Government at all.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Or solve the backstop
The EU show no sign of budging on that. It has not been solved after years of talking, it won't be solved in a few months.
No, it is time to decide whether we want no deal or remain and stop cocking about.
@Alanbrooke, you are not necessarily an ornament below the line, but your articles are good and I look forward to the next one. Well done and please continue.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
Sir John Major's line. Oh, but that's easy.
1. We are going to revoke A50 whilst we figure out what the hell is going on! 2. We have figured out that most of us never wanted Brexit in the first place, so it's cancelled 3. To guarantee that nobody tries this again, we are going to pass a law declaring Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman to be Gods, and consequently all future criticism of the European Union to be heresy punishable by burning at the stake
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
I don’t think Grieve wants Brexit passed. He clearly wants A 50 revoked and is prepared to stop Brexit. If he achieves that, the Tory Party splits and he doesn’t care about an election because Corbyn wins - either outright or propped up by the SNP.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Remain is not wanted either. Just fucking leave.
I was referring to what Parliament wants to do - people keep arguing against the deal, no deal, suggesting revocation 'so we can sort things out' and so on, which is all transparently stepping stones to remain.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
May needs to withdraw the whip from Wollaston, Suvry and Co and get local parties to select a Brexit supporting candidate. Than call a general election through a vote in parliament which Corbyn would never reject.
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
I don’t think Grieve wants Brexit passed. He clearly wants A 50 revoked and is prepared to stop Brexit. If he achieves that, the Tory Party splits and he doesn’t care about an election because Corbyn wins - either outright or propped up by the SNP.
I agree with you on that. In fact it would be quite ridiculous if he did not bring down the government to ensure Brexit, given how he clearly cares more about remain than the party. I wasn't arguing he did want Brexit passed. I was arguing that if leavers want to stop Grieve they have the numbers if they want it. Spend all their time arguing that it is not the right kind of Brexit and they will see Grieve win. It is up to them.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
We have no choice, folks, we have no choice.
Hey, any chance of the Grand Remainer Plot driven by Devious Grievious being fronted by Yvette Cooper?
I threw a few pennies on her ages ago at 600/1 to be next PM. My thinking back then was that the next GE might be a TM vs JC re-run and that this time Labour gets hammered - triggering a Labour move back to soft left - and therefore a new leader which (given their next one has to be female) probably means Yvette.
Not happening - that - but the bet still pays off if she becomes 'temporary just to cancel brexit' PM via this remainer insurrection.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
You know damn well that will never happen. Arguing for revocation is arguing for cancellation. Which is not an unworthy goal, indeed in some situations it might be for the best, but let us not pretend revocation is an intermediary step. It's an endstate.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
That just resets the clock running for another 2 years doesn’t it. Can’t see that working myself because I can’t see any common ground between the various groupings and nobody wants another 2 years plus of no domestic policy agenda because of Brexit. I think it more likely if we revoke A 50, Brexit dies and we have a general election.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
I don’t think Grieve wants Brexit passed. He clearly wants A 50 revoked and is prepared to stop Brexit. If he achieves that, the Tory Party splits and he doesn’t care about an election because Corbyn wins - either outright or propped up by the SNP.
I agree with you on that. In fact it would be quite ridiculous if he did not bring down the government to ensure Brexit, given how he clearly cares more about remain than the party. I wasn't arguing he did want Brexit passed. I was arguing that if leavers want to stop Grieve they have the numbers if they want it. Spend all their time arguing that it is not the right kind of Brexit and they will see Grieve win. It is up to them.
I don’t think Leavers actually do have the numbers. It would take Corbyn whipping Labour to oppose Grieve which isn’t going to happen. Corbyn will support any move that helps make an election happen.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
You know damn well that will never happen. Arguing for revocation is arguing for cancellation. Which is not an unworthy goal, indeed in some situations it might be for the best, but let us not pretend revocation is an intermediary step. It's an endstate.
Not for me.
I want us to Leave, I just don't want a disastrous no deal Brexit.
I spent some time last week with my father's former NHS colleagues and a few people that worked for the government between 2010 and 2016.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
Coming to a Brexit r tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
I don’t think Grieve wants Brexit passed. He clearly wants A 50 revoked and is prepared to stop Brexit. If he achieves that, the Tory Party splits and he doesn’t care about an election because Corbyn wins - either outright or propped up by the SNP.
I agree with you on that. In fact it would be quite ridiculous if he did not bring down the government to ensure Brexit, given how he clearly cares more about remain than the party. I wasn't arguing he did want Brexit passed. I was arguing that if leavers want to stop Grieve they have the numbers if they want it. Spend all their time arguing that it is not the right kind of Brexit and they will see Grieve win. It is up to them.
I don’t think Leavers actually do have the numbers. It would take Corbyn whipping Labour to oppose Grieve which isn’t going to happen. Corbyn will support any move that helps make an election happen.
It'd be closer with leave support, possibly enough with some labour rebels. They don't have to do that, but they can hardly complain if they take action which means remainers end up with more numbers.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Or solve the backstop
The EU show no sign of budging on that. It has not been solved after years of talking, it won't be solved in a few months.
No, it is time to decide whether we want no deal or remain and stop cocking about.
If we remain given that scenario we truly are a Vassal.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
We have no choice, folks, we have no choice.
Hey, any chance of the Grand Remainer Plot driven by Devious Grievious being fronted by Yvette Cooper?
I threw a few pennies on her ages ago at 600/1 to be next PM. My thinking back then was that the next GE might be a TM vs JC re-run and that this time Labour gets hammered - triggering a Labour move back to soft left - and therefore a new leader which (given their next one has to be female) probably means Yvette.
Not happening - that - but the bet still pays off if she becomes 'temporary just to cancel brexit' PM via this remainer insurrection.
600/1 !!
Am I right to feel a stirring of excitement?
Highly unlikely. But not 600-1 unlikely. TSEs Fallon bet is less plausible.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
I thought we weren't discussing fantasy scenarios?
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Opposing the deal is fine, it's whether they have realistic alternatives lined up which is the issue. In fairness to the remainers, they do have an alternative in mind and thanks to the ECJ decision it is actually viable as well. Out and out no dealers do at least have an alternative too, although given parliament wishes to block further preparation, the difficulties of that option are mounting. I'm just hoping unicorn supporters change their tune after Tuesday, regardless of what they back.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Parliament has delegated authority
The Executive wields what is left of the Royal Prerogative (the original source of sovereignty) but parliaments legitomacy comes from the voters - it’s not a thing that exists in its own right
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
You know damn well that will never happen. Arguing for revocation is arguing for cancellation. Which is not an unworthy goal, indeed in some situations it might be for the best, but let us not pretend revocation is an intermediary step. It's an endstate.
Not for me.
I want us to Leave, I just don't want a disastrous no deal Brexit.
I spent some time last week with my father's former NHS colleagues and a few people that worked for the government between 2010 and 2016.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
That frightens me.
Hancock has already said that won’t happen though.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Or solve the backstop
The EU show no sign of budging on that. It has not been solved after years of talking, it won't be solved in a few months.
No, it is time to decide whether we want no deal or remain and stop cocking about.
If we remain given that scenario we truly are a Vassal.
If you say so. What of it? If the country won't no deal it doesn't look like anything else will plausibly manifest itself as an option.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
You know damn well that will never happen. Arguing for revocation is arguing for cancellation. Which is not an unworthy goal, indeed in some situations it might be for the best, but let us not pretend revocation is an intermediary step. It's an endstate.
Not for me.
I want us to Leave, I just don't want a disastrous no deal Brexit.
I spent some time last week with my father's former NHS colleagues and a few people that worked for the government between 2010 and 2016.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
That frightens me.
Hancock has already said that won’t happen though.
He's working on the premise there's no hold ups.
As I said that's assuming Chris Grayling displays a hitherto unknown level of competence.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
Details never matter, it's how they are framed. Death tax, dementia tax, vassal state brexit etc etc.
Vassal state will be the death knell for the deal if it ever goes before the people in a referendum. How many leavers will be reminded of all those vassal state comments by the remain campaign? Who would want to make themselves a vassal rather than a partner? Look at all these prominent leavers who say what a dreadful outcome that would be.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. The DUP and ERG have both said they oppose the deal but not the Gov so Grieve and his rebels are a bigger threat in pursuing their attempts to seize control of Gov business. They are also making it more likely that Corbyn will win the election.
Coming to a Brexit r tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
I agree with you on that. In fact it would be quite ridiculous if he did not bring down the government to ensure Brexit, given how he clearly cares more about remain than the party. I wasn't arguing he did want Brexit passed. I was arguing that if leavers want to stop Grieve they have the numbers if they want it. Spend all their time arguing that it is not the right kind of Brexit and they will see Grieve win. It is up to them.
I don’t think Leavers actually do have the numbers. It would take Corbyn whipping Labour to oppose Grieve which isn’t going to happen. Corbyn will support any move that helps make an election happen.
It'd be closer with leave support, possibly enough with some labour rebels. They don't have to do that, but they can hardly complain if they take action which means remainers end up with more numbers.
Except that it’s a hugely Remain dominated HoC which is why, despite my personal preference, I don’t believe Brexit will happen. If there was common ground, it would have been found by now.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It identifies two, one of whom must have known, and one of whom may (probably should) have known. The rest of them it is just a patent smear by association (oh they should have known, they worked in a similar environment a short while after)! I'm not quite sure why they or their legal staff think that a clever idea when the original story is bad enough.
This is how you get disasters like Operation Midland, which only interviewed one genuine paedophile and due to the awesome credibility loss of the detectives involved over their wild smearing of just about every politician with homosexual proclivities, he not only can't be prosecuted but can't be named.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. Till win the election.
Coming to a Brexit r tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
I agree with you on p to them.
I don’t think Leavers actually do have the numbers. It would take Corbyn whipping Labour to oppose Grieve which isn’t going to happen. Corbyn will support any move that helps make an election happen.
It'd be closer with leave support, possibly enough with some labour rebels. They don't have to do that, but they can hardly complain if they take action which means remainers end up with more numbers.
Except that it’s a hugely Remain dominated HoC which is why, despite my personal preference, I don’t believe Brexit will happen. If there was common ground, it would have been found by now.
200 Tories are backing leave via the deal. 100 more and the DUP are backing no deal leave or a unicorn deal leave. A handful of Labour and a LD back the deal leave. It might have been enough. Now, if the deal is just so crap for those 100 and the DUP fine, but that most MPs in the house voted leave doesn't mean it was never going to back leave. There were the numbers.
I agree with you I don't think there is now, particularly since the ECJ made remaining so much easier. If all that matters is leaving though, enough back various leave options to see it through. But they don't, and it won't.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Remain is not wanted either. Just fucking leave.
That’s where I am now. I thought the EEA alongside Norway was a sensible choice after May lost her majority if the Gov was going to focus on domestic policy but by focusing on Brexit and trying to push a special relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want, it’s now or never for Brexit even if it’s on a no deal basis.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
Let's leave aside for a moment the fact that the votes of the DUP and ERG probably couldn't get this Withdrawal Agreement through. They would make the result very much closer, but the Remain opposition on the Tory side would probably still be too much for May's Deal to get over the finishing line (and there's no point in expecting the DUP at least to vote for the Backstop under any circumstances.) Giving up on the Deal now is good strategy for the Brexiteers, if (as I suspect) this ends with the final capture of the Conservative Party by their cause and the departure of the Hard Remainers to boot.
The Remainer consensus in Parliament might be able to intervene and foil Brexit now, but in the long run their manoeuvres will be for nothing if any future Conservative Government manages to win any kind of majority. Even a result the same as 2017, allied once again to the DUP vote, would be sufficient.
If Parliament intervenes to engineer BINO or Remain, contravening the spirit and possibly the letter of the 2016 referendum result, then this does two important things: it shows that Parliament can unpick a referendum decision if it disagrees with it (i.e. establishing the principle that they're advisory and, therefore, worthless,) and confirms that the law of the land is whatever Parliament says it is. So a Leaver majority in any future House of Commons can simply reinvoke A50 and leave under its own authority, without further consulting the electorate.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Remain is not wanted either. Just fucking leave.
That’s where I am now. I thought the EEA alongside Norway was a sensible choice after May lost her majority if the Gov was going to focus on domestic policy but by focusing on Brexit and trying to push a special relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want, it’s now or never for Brexit even if it’s on a no deal basis.
Yes, well, parliament won't allow that, so it's never. Not my preference, but there you go.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
Let's leave aside for a moment the fact that the votes of the DUP and ERG probably couldn't get this Withdrawal Agreement through. They would make the result very much closer, but the Remain opposition on the Tory side would probably still be too much for May's Deal to get over the finishing line.
I was factoring in the assumption a certain number of Labour waverers would back it, more than now if it had looked close, possibly enough to see it over the line.
Coming to a Brexit resolution is more important than who wins a GE. Grieve and co are indeed a threat to the government and Brexit, but the issue at hand is how does Brexit get passed. The Grievers cannot get Brexit passed even if they wanted, they are too few. The DUP and ERG could see it passed. Given parliament through the machinations of the Grievers will stop no deal, the DUP and ERG are tacitly accepting the loss of Brexit is preferable to the deal passing.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
Let's leave aside for a moment the fact that the votes of the DUP and ERG probably couldn't get this Withdrawal Agreement through. They would make the result very much closer, but the Remain opposition on the Tory side would probably still be too much for May's Deal to get over the finishing line (and there's no point in expecting the DUP at least to vote for the Backstop under any circumstances.) Giving up on the Deal now is good strategy for the Brexiteers, if (as I suspect) this ends with the final capture of the Conservative Party by their cause and the departure of the Hard Remainers to boot.
The Remainer consensus in Parliament might be able to intervene and foil Brexit now, but in the long run their manoeuvres will be for nothing if any future Conservative Government manages to win any kind of majority. Even a result the same as 2017, allied once again to the DUP vote, would be sufficient.
If Parliament intervenes to engineer BINO or Remain, contravening the spirit and possibly the letter of the 2016 referendum result, then this does two important things: it shows that Parliament can unpick a referendum decision if it disagrees with it (i.e. establishing the principle that they're advisory and, therefore, worthless,) and confirms that the law of the land is whatever Parliament says it is. So a Leaver majority in any future House of Commons can simply reinvoke A50 and leave under its own authority, without further consulting the electorate.
Leave won't rise again for a generation if defeated. If Tories are focusing on capturing control of the party over getting Brexit through now, they will never get it.
And frankly the end of Conservative government for quite a while is surely a good thing for the country anyway.
I'm going to stick my neck out and make a prediction.
The Tory Hard Remainers will have left the party, and the Conservatives will be in Opposition and looking for a new leader before the end of the month.
The end of this month? That's tight. Otherwise I don't think it implausible.
The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament.
The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks.
Oh FFS can everyone just stop delaying this issue. It's obvious there are not the votes for the deal, and no deal is not wanted. Just fucking remain already.
Remain is not wanted either. Just fucking leave.
That’s where I am now. I thought the EEA alongside Norway was a sensible choice after May lost her majority if the Gov was going to focus on domestic policy but by focusing on Brexit and trying to push a special relationship with the EU that the EU clearly don’t want, it’s now or never for Brexit even if it’s on a no deal basis.
Yes, well, parliament won't allow that, so it's never. Not my preference, but there you go.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. Till win the election.
I agree with you on p to them.
It'd be closer with leave support, possibly enough with some labour rebels. They don't have to do that, but they can hardly complain if they take action which means remainers end up with more numbers.
Except that it’s a hugely Remain dominated HoC which is why, despite my personal preference, I don’t believe Brexit will happen. If there was common ground, it would have been found by now.
200 Tories are backing leave via the deal. 100 more and the DUP are backing no deal leave or a unicorn deal leave. A handful of Labour and a LD back the deal leave. It might have been enough. Now, if the deal is just so crap for those 100 and the DUP fine, but that most MPs in the house voted leave doesn't mean it was never going to back leave. There were the numbers.
I agree with you I don't think there is now, particularly since the ECJ made remaining so much easier. If all that matters is leaving though, enough back various leave options to see it through. But they don't, and it won't.
Remain it is.
Are you a masochist? You seem very enthusiastic that your referendum vote will be vetoed without a democratic figleaf. I personally don’t think our politicians would do it. They haven’t got the testicular fortitude.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
You know damn well that will never happen. Arguing for revocation is arguing for cancellation. Which is not an unworthy goal, indeed in some situations it might be for the best, but let us not pretend revocation is an intermediary step. It's an endstate.
Not for me.
I want us to Leave, I just don't want a disastrous no deal Brexit.
I spent some time last week with my father's former NHS colleagues and a few people that worked for the government between 2010 and 2016.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
That frightens me.
Hancock has already said that won’t happen though.
I seem to remember lots of people saying the medicines story was, shall we say inflated.
Robert Sminthson of this parish included if I recall.
Are you a masochist? You seem very enthusiastic that your referendum vote will be vetoed without a democratic figleaf. I personally don’t think our politicians would do it. They haven’t got the testicular fortitude.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
I don't think they will do it either. And I am not enthusiastic about it at all. But if they have no intention of backing no deal or the deal, they might as well spare us the aggravation of a referendum campaign rather than swear that this time they will follow through.
And there is still a slight chance they will. We see this with the 'let's revoke and pretend we might leave again' fantasy that is pushed, usually by MPs who just want to remain.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
While we are in it.
I hope the stories are inflated, for all our sakes. No deal is still a high chance, along with remain.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. Till win the election.
I agree with you on p to them.
It'd be closer with leave support, possibly enough with some labour rebels. They don't have to do that, but they can hardly complain if they take action which means remainers end up with more numbers.
Except that it’s a hugely Remain dominated HoC which is why, despite my personal preference, I don’t believe Brexit will happen. If there was common ground, it would have been found by now.
200 Tories are backing leave via the deal. 100 more and the DUP are backing no deal leave or a unicorn deal leave. A handful of Labour and a LD back the deal leave. It might have been enough. Now, if the deal is just so crap for those 100 and the DUP fine, but that most MPs in the house voted leave doesn't mean it was never going to back leave. There were the numbers.
I agree with you I don't think there is now, particularly since the ECJ made remaining so much easier. If all that matters is leaving though, enough back various leave options to see it through. But they don't, and it won't.
Remain it is.
Are you a masochist? You seem very enthusiastic that your referendum vote will be vetoed without a democratic figleaf. I personally don’t think our politicians would do it. They haven’t got the testicular fortitude.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
Are you a masochist? You seem very enthusiastic that your referendum vote will be vetoed without a democratic figleaf. I personally don’t think our politicians would do it. They haven’t got the testicular fortitude.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
I don't think they will do it either. And I am not enthusiastic about it at all. But if they have no intention of backing no deal or the deal, they might as well spare us the aggravation of a referendum campaign rather than swear that this time they will follow through.
And there is still a slight chance they will. We see this with the 'let's revoke and pretend we might leave again' fantasy that is pushed, usually by MPs who just want to remain.
If you think the aggro that would result from a second referendum would be less than that resulting from parliamentary revocation, we will have to agree to disagree.
What MPs think of the second referendum result doesn’t matter. It will be legally binding.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
And leaves us likely forced to opt in to the least advantageous of those in any FTA.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
And leaves us likely forced to opt in to the least advantageous of those in any FTA.
No - because it commits the EU, legally and finally, to negotiate with us as equals in good faith, and specifically states that the deal is abrogated if they don't.
This is actually not a good deal for the EU. It's especially bad if the backstop is triggered because it might result in them having to concede porous borders without a FTA.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
On the contrary. It takes us out of CAP, CFP, the CJEU, the Single Market, the Customs Union, the Four Freedoms and the European Political system.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
Not really. The CFP will stay at least for the duration of the transitional period which kicks in if the WA is signedie until 2021. What happens after that depends on the trade negotiations where we will be on the back foot because of the backstop. Same for the Single Market rules and the Customs Union. FoM is up for negotiation too during the trade discussions as is Spain getting more control over Gibraltar. The CJEU is the ultimate arbiter of the transitional agreement and maybe longer.
With no way out of the backstop, May’s deal is white flag.
Are you a masochist? You seem very enthusiastic that your referendum vote will be vetoed without a democratic figleaf. I personally don’t think our politicians would do it. They haven’t got the testicular fortitude.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
I don't think they will do it either. And I am not enthusiastic about it at all. But if they have no intention of backing no deal or the deal, they might as well spare us the aggravation of a referendum campaign rather than swear that this time they will follow through.
And there is still a slight chance they will. We see this with the 'let's revoke and pretend we might leave again' fantasy that is pushed, usually by MPs who just want to remain.
If you think the aggro that would result from a second referendum would be less than that resulting from parliamentary revocation, we will have to agree to disagree.
Sure it will be more aggravating. But will be aggravated at our politicians, holding them to account for their decision, rather than them doing what they said they did not need to do and pass the buck back on to the public again.
It’s amazing the number of ‘Parliament is Sovereign’ Leavers who are now throwing a strop because it’s resisting Theresa’s vassal-state deal.
Have you read it? I'm guessing from your comment the answer is 'no,' btw.
As far as it relates to the act of withdrawal "May's Deal" isn't vassalage. That's because the future relationship isn't dealt with beyond committing to retain some aspects of what is already there. It's a smart deal in that respect, but it's a bit Jesuitical, really.
Doesn't matter. Most leavers dislike it, they won't rally behind it in a public vote in enough numbers.
Of the Probables/Possibles on Con Home's list, I'd expect Selous, Halfon, Swire, Hayes, Elphicke to end up voting for it. Penning is definitely against. I"m not sure why Lee, Soubry, or Wollaston are put in that category as they are certainly against.
To be fair, as we've seen on EU mattters before, Wollaston can turn on a dime.....
Remain-supporting Conservative MPs are not a substantial problem for the Prime Minister right now.
They are if you believe today’s Sunday Times. I can’t see May agreeing that Grieve isn’t a major problem.
They're a problem. They're not the biggest problem.
They are unreliable. Till win the election.
I agree with you on p to them.
It'd be closer with leave support, possibly enough with some labour rebels. They don't have to do that, but they can hardly complain if they take action which means remainers end up with more numbers.
Except that it’s a hugely Remain dominated HoC which is why, despite my personal preference, I don’t believe Brexit will happen. If there was common ground, it would have been found by now.
Remain it is.
Are you a masochist? You seem very enthusiastic that your referendum vote will be vetoed without a democratic figleaf. I personally don’t think our politicians would do it. They haven’t got the testicular fortitude.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
I don't think I could bear that.
You just need a different mindset. British politics will be shifting from Barber’s Toccata Festiva to Stravinsky’s Rite of Spring. Both can be enjoyable, but not in the same way as the Messiah.
If Parliament revokes unilaterally, we’re into Messiaen territory.
Brexit is Global Thermonuclear War off War Games. The only way to win is not to play. The arguments on here and outside in the wider world are stuck in a loop going round and round. The screaming anger is there because remainers ask what does my tattoo say and get the answer "dude" and leavers ask what does my tattoo say and get the answer "sweet". And then the same question again and again and again until the answers are DUDE and SWEET and fisticuffs are imminent.
Brexiteers haven't a sodding clue what they want. Some want to leave the EU but think that a deal where we leave the EU isn't enough because we don't leave the EU properly or something. Some like me wanted Norway. Some wanted WTO and the recreated East India Company. Some wanted the foreigners to go home. Some wanted a job and some more cash for their hospital (presumably to pay to recruit replacements for all the foreigners who just went home)
The ONLY option with any certainty is Remain. We know how that works, what that looks like. Sure, we're going to get yellow vested wazzocks fighting in the streets and several new parties pledging to take back control from that evil parliament who took back control. There'll be protest marches. But we get all of those things whatever we do now.
Would love May to respond to her defeat on Tuesday with "anyone fancy a pint?"
I'm calling for a total and complete shutdown of Brexit until our country's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on.
How do achieve that with the A50 clock running. EU have already said they’ll only agree to postpone A 50 for the purposes of a 2nd referendum.
We can unilaterally revoke Article 50 then reinvoke it once we've worked out what the hell is going on.
You know damn well that will never happen. Arguing for revocation is arguing for cancellation. Which is not an unworthy goal, indeed in some situations it might be for the best, but let us not pretend revocation is an intermediary step. It's an endstate.
Not for me.
I want us to Leave, I just don't want a disastrous no deal Brexit.
I spent some time last week with my father's former NHS colleagues and a few people that worked for the government between 2010 and 2016.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
That frightens me.
Hancock has already said that won’t happen though.
One Matt in Hancock and the world's your oyster The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free You'll find a god in every Tory cloister And if you're lucky then the god's a she I can feel Theresa sliding up to me
One Matt in Hancock makes the Leavers humble Not much between Brexit and ecstasy One Matt in Hancock and Remainers tumble Can't be too careful with your company I can feel Theresa walking next to me
Brexit is Global Thermonuclear War off War Games. The only way to win is not to play. The arguments on here and outside in the wider world are stuck in a loop going round and round. The screaming anger is there because remainers ask what does my tattoo say and get the answer "dude" and leavers ask what does my tattoo say and get the answer "sweet". And then the same question again and again and again until the answers are DUDE and SWEET and fisticuffs are imminent.
Brexiteers haven't a sodding clue what they want. Some want to leave the EU but think that a deal where we leave the EU isn't enough because we don't leave the EU properly or something. Some like me wanted Norway. Some wanted WTO and the recreated East India Company. Some wanted the foreigners to go home. Some wanted a job and some more cash for their hospital (presumably to pay to recruit replacements for all the foreigners who just went home)
The ONLY option with any certainty is Remain. We know how that works, what that looks like. Sure, we're going to get yellow vested wazzocks fighting in the streets and several new parties pledging to take back control from that evil parliament who took back control. There'll be protest marches. But we get all of those things whatever we do now.
Would love May to respond to her defeat on Tuesday with "anyone fancy a pint?"
The need for a pure brexit is what will kill it in the end, if it is killed. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
ROFL
Got a better idea? Brexit is dying.
Your ‘suggestion’ is equivalent to saying that we should switch off a dialysis machine for a patient with kidney failure while we pick the donor.
The deal is the best way to proceed, as Casino Royale and I have been boring on.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
ROFL
Got a better idea? Brexit is dying.
A once in a lifetime offer to the Shadow cabinet. Choose your own honour
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
ROFL
Got a better idea? Brexit is dying.
Your ‘suggestion’ is equivalent to saying that we should switch off a dialysis machine for a patient with kidney failure while we pick the donor.
The deal is the best way to proceed, as Casino Royale and I have been boring on.
Except the deal can likely not command a majority in Parliament.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
It may be crap deal but how do we get a better one given where we are....
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
If I was giving my *best* advice to Brexiters, I would argue that we should revoke A50, and reinvoke at our convenience around a Norway for now strategy.
ROFL
Got a better idea? Brexit is dying.
Your ‘suggestion’ is equivalent to saying that we should switch off a dialysis machine for a patient with kidney failure while we pick the donor.
The deal is the best way to proceed, as Casino Royale and I have been boring on.
Except the deal can likely not command a majority in Parliament.
Then GE or second referendum. For the GE, Tory candidates that won’t vote for the deal in the event a Tory majority is won don’t get the chance to be candidates. Same with second referendumites.
A Grand Strategy borrowed from the 18th century: honours for votes.
And we have the nerve to criticise Italian politicians!
John Redwood got a knighthood. If votes are being bought with honours it is doing a very poor job of it, and has bought off less than a handful in a vote to be lost by hundreds. Is it plausible?
It was a tongue in cheek comment. But happy to accept that Mr May is as rubbish as this as at everything else she does.
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?
Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.
Thanks. Interesting that it is one country where the people are closely involved in governing via frequent referenda. Plus all the Swiss I know speak at least one other of their 3 languages.
I don’t think the frequent referenda route is one that would work in a very much larger polity.
There is more to creating a demos than just these changes. Can you have a real demos without there being a common language say?
Sure. Switzerland. Three languages, very little sharing of media and distinctly different cultures too. But I never encountered any serious doubt when I lived there of a sense of common purpose, and linguistic misunderstandings of the kind you mention didn't in practice arise.
Isn't Switzerland a hotbed of sectarian violence where French and German speakers regularly bomb each other's homes and places of business?
It only really became ubiquitous in the 90s after Ford did it in the Escort although some Mercs had it in the 70s. It's still not universal; the 911 didn't get it until the 991 generation in 2002 which is yet another reason why it's the best car in the world.
Am I correct in thinking that people on this board now all feel that no-deal is now dead? Because I disagree: I think that if(!) the vote is lost this week then no-deal is entirely possible.
Am I correct in thinking that people on this board now all feel that no-deal is now dead? Because I disagree: I think that if(!) the vote is lost this week then no-deal is entirely possible.
Comments
And note, the Swiss put a lot of effort into keeping linguistic tensions to a minimum.
If you can repress my 100/1 tip in September 2017 on Sir Michael Fallon succeeding Mrs May that would be brilliant.
That's fine. But it is their choice, and they have the power to ensure Brexit happens.
If I had to stake my house on one of those two things occurring I'd take Trump as nominee definitely. Neither are certain, but I'm just not convinced the impeachment/otherwise topple Trump prospects are as good as the People's Vote prospects - and I don't think we'll have a People's Vote.
No, it is time to decide whether we want no deal or remain and stop cocking about.
1. We are going to revoke A50 whilst we figure out what the hell is going on!
2. We have figured out that most of us never wanted Brexit in the first place, so it's cancelled
3. To guarantee that nobody tries this again, we are going to pass a law declaring Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman to be Gods, and consequently all future criticism of the European Union to be heresy punishable by burning at the stake
Hey, any chance of the Grand Remainer Plot driven by Devious Grievious being fronted by Yvette Cooper?
I threw a few pennies on her ages ago at 600/1 to be next PM. My thinking back then was that the next GE might be a TM vs JC re-run and that this time Labour gets hammered - triggering a Labour move back to soft left - and therefore a new leader which (given their next one has to be female) probably means Yvette.
Not happening - that - but the bet still pays off if she becomes 'temporary just to cancel brexit' PM via this remainer insurrection.
600/1 !!
Am I right to feel a stirring of excitement?
https://youtu.be/h9dlG-iq3F8
I want us to Leave, I just don't want a disastrous no deal Brexit.
I spent some time last week with my father's former NHS colleagues and a few people that worked for the government between 2010 and 2016.
To avoid a medicines shortages under No Deal we're relying on Chris Grayling delivering an exceptional amount of competence to ensure things keep on running smoothly.
That frightens me.
But not 600-1 unlikely.
TSEs Fallon bet is less plausible.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1084030700716785664
The Executive wields what is left of the Royal Prerogative (the original source of sovereignty) but parliaments legitomacy comes from the voters - it’s not a thing that exists in its own right
As I said that's assuming Chris Grayling displays a hitherto unknown level of competence.
Sir Humphrey would say that's very brave.
Vassal state will be the death knell for the deal if it ever goes before the people in a referendum. How many leavers will be reminded of all those vassal state comments by the remain campaign? Who would want to make themselves a vassal rather than a partner? Look at all these prominent leavers who say what a dreadful outcome that would be.
Sounds very effective.
We only ever had two elements of leverage with the EU, timing and the trade in goods.
We folded on timing immediately by exercising A50, and ultimately the goods trade was used *against* us because we would not tolerate the disruption to our trading networks implied by leaving the customs union, having already committed to the red line of leaving the single market for immigration reasons.
All the WA does is allow us to exit without destroying the country, but it leaves us utterly beholden to the EU in any subsequent FTA negotiations.
This is why is right that the deal be voted down on Tuesday.
Brexiters - and May - should have done their homework.
This is how you get disasters like Operation Midland, which only interviewed one genuine paedophile and due to the awesome credibility loss of the detectives involved over their wild smearing of just about every politician with homosexual proclivities, he not only can't be prosecuted but can't be named.
I agree with you I don't think there is now, particularly since the ECJ made remaining so much easier. If all that matters is leaving though, enough back various leave options to see it through. But they don't, and it won't.
Remain it is.
The Remainer consensus in Parliament might be able to intervene and foil Brexit now, but in the long run their manoeuvres will be for nothing if any future Conservative Government manages to win any kind of majority. Even a result the same as 2017, allied once again to the DUP vote, would be sufficient.
If Parliament intervenes to engineer BINO or Remain, contravening the spirit and possibly the letter of the 2016 referendum result, then this does two important things: it shows that Parliament can unpick a referendum decision if it disagrees with it (i.e. establishing the principle that they're advisory and, therefore, worthless,) and confirms that the law of the land is whatever Parliament says it is. So a Leaver majority in any future House of Commons can simply reinvoke A50 and leave under its own authority, without further consulting the electorate.
And frankly the end of Conservative government for quite a while is surely a good thing for the country anyway.
We will probably vote again. It will be a circus, but without the fun.
Robert Sminthson of this parish included if I recall.
And there is still a slight chance they will. We see this with the 'let's revoke and pretend we might leave again' fantasy that is pushed, usually by MPs who just want to remain.
It gives me no comfort though to see the country so resounded humiliated in its only foreign policy of the past two years.
As I imply upthread, there *was* a decent strategy for Brexit, effectively “Norway for now”.
However it required leadership, conciliation and single minded focus from May - absolutely none of which she has been able to demonstrate.
Furthermore even if the deal is crap what proof does anyone have that a No Deal Brexit would be better than the crap deal? Going for No Deal could be little different than throwing a second lit firework into the house as the fire brigade hasn't arrived quickly enough to put the first fire out...
I hope the stories are inflated, for all our sakes. No deal is still a high chance, along with remain.
What MPs think of the second referendum result doesn’t matter. It will be legally binding.
That's pretty extensive with regard to the future relationship.
It's also one reason why everybody is obsessing about this ludicrous backstop - because it's the only stick to beat it with, even though in reality it's a feeble one that the EU certainly wouldn't want to be anything other than temporary.
https://twitter.com/PPOffers/status/1084538077027201029
This is actually not a good deal for the EU. It's especially bad if the backstop is triggered because it might result in them having to concede porous borders without a FTA.
With no way out of the backstop, May’s deal is white flag.
If Parliament revokes unilaterally, we’re into Messiaen territory.
Brexiteers haven't a sodding clue what they want. Some want to leave the EU but think that a deal where we leave the EU isn't enough because we don't leave the EU properly or something. Some like me wanted Norway. Some wanted WTO and the recreated East India Company. Some wanted the foreigners to go home. Some wanted a job and some more cash for their hospital (presumably to pay to recruit replacements for all the foreigners who just went home)
The ONLY option with any certainty is Remain. We know how that works, what that looks like. Sure, we're going to get yellow vested wazzocks fighting in the streets and several new parties pledging to take back control from that evil parliament who took back control. There'll be protest marches. But we get all of those things whatever we do now.
Would love May to respond to her defeat on Tuesday with "anyone fancy a pint?"
Mind is blown by this.
https://twitter.com/BeffernieBlack/status/1084052288510066688
The bars are temples but the pearls ain't free
You'll find a god in every Tory cloister
And if you're lucky then the god's a she
I can feel Theresa sliding up to me
One Matt in Hancock makes the Leavers humble
Not much between Brexit and ecstasy
One Matt in Hancock and Remainers tumble
Can't be too careful with your company
I can feel Theresa walking next to me
The deal is the best way to proceed, as Casino Royale and I have been boring on.
Neither hold any fear for me.
I don’t think the frequent referenda route is one that would work in a very much larger polity.
That would at least make Switzerland interesting!
(Sorry @NickPalmer!)
Who's there?
Is Len in?
No, he's advocating the inevitable triumph of the proletariat and the overthrow of the bourgeoisie.