politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another crazy day – the betting movements
Comments
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For Britpop, certainly.AndyJS said:
I think it was the early to mid 1990s.not_on_fire said:In hindsight, London 2012 was Peak Britain
I’m not up and with it on the latest music but rag’n’boneman really doesn’t cut it for me. Nor why so many young men seemingly want to imitate his beard and haircut.0 -
In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.0
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Not for a while, unfortunately, as Henry VIII said to Anne Boleyn.OldKingCole said:
Looks like you're getting demob happy. When do you finish?ydoethur said:0 -
We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".0 -
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).AlastairMeeks said:It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
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I’ve had some odd experiences, but I’ve never been able to make a comparison like that!Dura_Ace said:In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.
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Nothing new. See "The Cash Pussies - 99% is Shit"Donny43 said:
It could be that 99% of music in any era is awful and we just remember the other 1%.AndyJS said:
It could just be that 99% of music produced since about 1995 has been awful. Most people would rather listen to Abba and the Bee Gees than anything from the last 20 years or so.SeanT said:
What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.FrancisUrquhart said:
For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.Jonathan said:UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.
Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.
The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
From 1979.0 -
If sufficient numbers of conservatives are willing to accept the end of the party in its present form, with separate radical populist and pragmatist business movements emerging from the ashes, a no-deal could happen.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.0 -
... and half of our tradeMarqueeMark said:
We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".0 -
You shave your testicles? I mean, how else could you possibly know that?Dura_Ace said:In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.
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He shaved somebody elses?Beverley_C said:
You shave your testicles? I mean, how else could you possibly know that?Dura_Ace said:In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.
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That has for some time been the expected scenario though.ydoethur said:
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).AlastairMeeks said:It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
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Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.0 -
This is Ragnarok for the Tory Party. The rumblings started in the 1990s. There was always a good chance that the inevitable result of the divide on Europe was an existential war at some point.WhisperingOracle said:
If sufficient numbers of conservatives are willing to accept the end of the party in its present form, with separate radical populist and pragmatist business movements emerging from the ashes, a no-deal could happen.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.0 -
1945 was Peak Britain. 2012 was a testicle-sized blip on the long downslope.not_on_fire said:In hindsight, London 2012 was Peak Britain
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His Busted references are out of control.Beverley_C said:0 -
Expected, but not certain. There was always the chance of a sudden collapse followed by an election that left no time for a leadership contest. Now that scenario is pretty well played out from the look of it.AlastairMeeks said:
That has for some time been the expected scenario though.ydoethur said:
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).AlastairMeeks said:It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
I have to go. Have a good morning.0 -
The new Tory leader still has to command the confidence of the house to become PM, right? Depending on who is elected that is not a totally foregone conclusion, though a condensed leadership election is in prospect and that might tip the outcome.ydoethur said:
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).AlastairMeeks said:It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
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Run of the mill naval high jinks, probably.MarqueeMark said:
He shaved somebody elses?Beverley_C said:
You shave your testicles? I mean, how else could you possibly know that?Dura_Ace said:In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.
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There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.IanB2 said:Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.0 -
Won’t the badgers move the goalposts?IanB2 said:Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.0 -
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So Boris Johnson basically.0 -
He's joined the ranks of the seriously bonkers. For two minutes he sounded credible but then it all came pouring out. Mrs May should leave them to it. There's no way more than a small minority in parliament will follow these people so at least if the public see them full on they'll be laughed at and we might be able to move forwardIanB2 said:Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
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Also it might be the markets cottoning on to the fact that he seems to be happy to wait until capitalism collapses on its own contradictions before he makes a move.ydoethur said:
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).AlastairMeeks said:It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
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I get the impression they all know that but want somebody else to be the first to say it.philiph said:
There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.IanB2 said:Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
Edit/ I also got the impression he wants no deal but didn't want to say that either, expecting to get to late January and then shrug and say 'what could we do?'0 -
#1 There's no time for a member ballot. #2 The Tories are electing a PM not a LotO. #3 They are electing a PM who to become PM has to be acceptable enough to the DUP for the Palace to appoint them and let them be tested by the House.
If May goes before the 20th when the recess freezes the VoNC process then we are in for a leadership contest more Magic Circle than pure election. I think it favours sitting Cabinet Members.0 -
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Can you explain the difference a managed no deal and an unmanaged one? Presumably May's putative replacement will do the managing and it will be all right?numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.0 -
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At last.0
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It could have been him, if he had been prepared to tell it straight as soon as he had accidentally won the referendum. On the Nixon in China argument he could have been the one to spell out the necessity for a staged, soft Brexit and bring everyone together. Yet he has spent most of his time since doing the precise opposite, and made himself unsuitable for the job.edmundintokyo said:
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So Boris Johnson basically.0 -
And so the old and nostalgic shall take over the earth. Spotify calls to say you’re wrong.AndyJS said:
It could just be that 99% of music produced since about 1995 has been awful. Most people would rather listen to Abba and the Bee Gees than anything from the last 20 years or so.SeanT said:
What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.FrancisUrquhart said:
For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.Jonathan said:UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.
Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.
The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE0 -
A leadership election transfers ownership of the current crisis firmly to the Conservative party, rather than the government or the wider nation. Political insanity and highly undemocratic to resolve Brexit in this way.
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As I understand it "managed" means striking a number of narrow and quick agreements with the EU to sign off some of the easier and/or more significant potential issues - for example continuing to recognise UK pet passports as an example of the former, keeping the planes flying as one of the latter. As far as our trading arrangements are concerned it's the same as no deal.FF43 said:
Can you explain the difference a managed no deal and an unmanaged one? Presumably May's putative replacement will do the managing and it will be all right?numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.0 -
BRADY SAYS 48 - BBC live now
VONC tonight0 -
Good morning. BBC: 48 letters reached. Contest tonight between 6pm and 8pm.0
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Literally being so much wolf crying over this that I'm not sure I believe it.Scott_P said:
Is this confirmed anywhere?0 -
And tonight she will be get the set - humiliated by her party.Scott_P said:0 -
It is confirmed now.Alistair said:
Literally being so much wolf crying over this that I'm not sure I believe it.Scott_P said:
Is this confirmed anywhere?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
https://news.sky.com/story/live-may-on-the-brink-of-a-leadership-challenge-115784790 -
I think we might need a new thread!0
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Raab C Brexit Off.0
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Brady could be crying wolf. I want a signed letter from god or Sir Clive Sinclair. Someone with gravitas that I can trust.IanB2 said:0 -
Now is the moment for Corbyn to call a VONC0
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I'm doing a comedy bit for people who aren't getting it.0
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It's on.
It's on, like Fat Pat's thong...0 -
15% threshold "exceeded".
I wonder by how much?0 -
Does she need a majority of Tory MPs to win, or just a majority of those who vote (excluding abstainers)?0
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Cue for loyalty tweets from The Cabinet.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1072759824142737408
Check which Tory MPs have appointments at the dentist0 -
3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today0
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You make a good point. Perhaps now the civil war is official it will kill off this incarnation of the Tory Party once and for all. It's a gift for Corbyn because he was getting nowhere. A penalty into an empty net. Can he hit the target?Jonathan said:A leadership election transfers ownership of the current crisis firmly to the Conservative party, rather than the government or the wider nation. Political insanity and highly undemocratic to resolve Brexit in this way.
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The rules are different to 1990 when the first round was a contest between candidates rather than a vote of confidence in the leader.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#First_ballot0 -
Deckchairs. Titanic. Fiddling while Rome burns.0
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£15,000 on offer at 2% on BEasjohnstone said:3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today
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Yes, more than 100 voting against would make things difficult.IanB2 said:
The latter. But the real question is the level at which her credibility as sunk below the point of no return (if indeed we aren't already there).AndyJS said:Does she need a majority of Tory MPs to win, or just a majority of those who vote (excluding abstainers)?
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https://twitter.com/JBrokenshire/status/1072760829815201792 Another Cabinet Minister backs May.0
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At risk if she resigns first?IanB2 said:
£15,000 on offer at 2% on BEasjohnstone said:3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today
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He isn't. It's a secret ballot and he fancies his own chances.dr_spyn said:0 -
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The Conservative party is bringing this great country to its knees.
Be gone - pests!0 -
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.0
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May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU want a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
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Is the middle part Hunt's plea for a coronation? ... the last thing the country needs is a damaging and long leadership contest.dr_spyn said:Cue for loyalty tweets from The Cabinet.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1072759824142737408
Check which Tory MPs have appointments at the dentist0 -
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
Give it a rest.0 -
We have 12 hours to come up with a list of Tory MPs who've expressed discontent with Mrs May recently.0
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Corbyn should call a VONC the moment Brady announces the results of this.0
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That so many are prepared to consider the idea of Corbyn as PM shows how bad it is for the Tories.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
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The Conservative party now taking the biggest steps towards its irrevocable split. Just a question of who gets to keep the kids (or perhaps grandparents) now0
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Would that void the bet?MarqueeMark said:
At risk if she resigns first?IanB2 said:
£15,000 on offer at 2% on BEasjohnstone said:3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today
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She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.0 -
May’s true awfulness would have become apparent in a leadership election, Brow, no one has an excuse. The Labour Party knew what they were getting.philiph said:
There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.IanB2 said:Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
Cameron and Blair were both strengthened by the competitive process they endured.0 -
This is utterly diabolical and shameful.Casino_Royale said:
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
Give it a rest.
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AmpfieldAndy said:
May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU in a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
They will back her in a Commons VONC because to do so otherwise is to vote no confidence in a conservative government.
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Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?0 -
Remember how TMay needlessly rubbed George Osborne's face in it when she fired him?
If she gets through this, imagine how much she's going to enjoy making a deal to cut these bastards out of the loop and abort their beloved unborn baby brexit.0 -
John Pienaar: possible that Theresa May could lose the vote tonight.0
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With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.0
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Or the alternative, increasing still further the prospect of no Brexit at all.MarqueeMark said:Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?0 -
More pantomime from Gove too, I wonder, or will he avoid the humiliation of obsequiousness this time.
His stance may turn out to be important.0 -
After 13 years of Labour, with them having crashed the economy a second time, people realised that Labour couldn’t be trusted with the future of the country. In that respect at least “nothing has changed”.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
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She has form, she’ll resign just before the vote.0
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They're not hanging around, are they?Scott_P said:
In 1990, it took 6 days between Heseltine announcing his challenge and the first round ballot.0 -
That was her fateful move, certainly.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.Casino_Royale said:
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
Give it a rest.0 -
dr_spyn said:
https://twitter.com/JBrokenshire/status/1072760829815201792 Another Cabinet Minister backs May.
Brokenshire is only in the Cabinet as one of May’s yes-men. No surprise there.0 -
Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn0 -
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.rkrkrk said:She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.0 -
The danger of postponing the Commons vote was always that it would generate the extra 5 letters needed for tonight's VONC.numbertwelve said:
That was her fateful move, certainly.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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Nobody polls significantly better than May and most poll worseMarqueeMark said:Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?0 -
If she survives this she'll have much more space to respond to the loss of the vote than she would have had if they still had it hanging over her.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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Good morning, everyone.
Mildly surprised it's been called so quickly.
Once I've woken up a bit more I'll be checking the odds to see if any of my favoured contenders has shortened and May's odds on winning the vote.0 -
The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough0
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Betfair Exchange still taking bets on whether a vote will take place.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1514813780
