politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum get
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He can speak to both sides of the Con party.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I understand Gove as a suggestion - but does he resolve anything?TGOHF said:
He also has the same IQ as most of the other candidates combined.AlastairMeeks said:
There are slim pickings. But it is time for someone else to be thrown in front of the Brexit juggernaut.Cyclefree said:
Thanks.AlastairMeeks said:
(a) Mystic Meeks ain't that good. On the grounds that the Conservatives will choose the worst but superficially most appealing choice, Dominic Raab.Cyclefree said:
Who do you (a) think will replace her; (b) want to replace her?AlastairMeeks said:
I repeat the question.Sean_F said:
Fear of getting worse.AlastairMeeks said:So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?
Theresa May is used up, like a squeezed lemon.
(b) Roughly 40 Conservative MPs are looking at themselves in the mirror today and perceiving the noble visage of the next First Lord of the Treasury.
Re (b) I was wondering what your personal preference for next Tory PM might be.
Raab is a nitwit. I hope it’s not him.
Despite being wildly unsuitable in many ways, I think the least bad choice is probably Michael Gove. He is both committed to Brexit and willing to compromise in the country's interest. Since he seems to be the only person occupying that position in the Venn diagram, I think it has to be him.
Could he get a deal - or optically get a deal at least - that wins the vote?
Add in Dominic Cummings as chief of staff in no 10 and anything is possible ..
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So... lets say May plans to hold the meaningful vote end of Feb or even in March (?!). Unplanned No Deal is the only alternative at that point. How do Labour vote? Do the ERG gamble that they can win the MV or do they have to make a move against May before then?0
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Bercow just likes to bloviateTheScreamingEagles said:
She’s right.JohnO said:The Govt will not allow a vote on the vote and bugger Bercow. So she’s at least doing something right.
That odious former Monday Club member deserves to be put in his place.0 -
Yes, they all need to act in the interests of the country, not their party and tell the people that the only acceptable deal overall is the one we already have, complete with its four opt-outs.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
F** the 'deal'; it means 5-10 more years of trade negotiations and damage to our economy with every piece of bad news.0 -
I have given up on watching the coverage.
We deserve a better political class - there is so little real talent in that House.0 -
What a mess. The ERG have probably prevented Brexit and destroyed their own government in the process. I really don't see how May can survive this. She has gambled recklessly that MPs might choose between the moon on a stick and what can actually be delivered. They are resolute, they will not.0
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But unplanned no deal will not the only alternative at any point. Thanks to the ECJ ruling revokation of article 50 will always be an alternative, and faced with unplanned no deal I am sure parliament would vote to revoke rather than go over the cliff.DanSmith said:So... lets say May plans to hold the meaningful vote end of Feb or even in March (?!). Unplanned No Deal is the only alternative at that point. How do Labour vote? Do the ERG gamble that they can win the MV or do they have to make a move against May before then?
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If people believe he was a leave voter I have a bridge to sell themwilliamglenn said:0 -
+1rural_voter said:
Yes, they all need to act in the interests of the country, not their party and tell the people that the only acceptable deal overall is the one we already have, complete with its four opt-outs.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
F** the 'deal'; it means 5-10 more years of trade negotiations and damage to our economy with every piece of bad news.
Five-Ten years of trade negotiations will screw up Business Investment decisions.
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Lord help us. But you're right in that although May has good qualities she is not helping things now Gove might not succeed but he's unpredictable enough that something could happen.AlastairMeeks said:
There are slim pickings. But it is time for someone else to be thrown in front of the Brexit juggernaut.Cyclefree said:
Thanks.AlastairMeeks said:
(a) Mystic Meeks ain't that good. On the grounds that the Conservatives will choose the worst but superficially most appealing choice, Dominic Raab.Cyclefree said:
Who do you (a) think will replace her; (b) want to replace her?AlastairMeeks said:
I repeat the question.Sean_F said:
Fear of getting worse.AlastairMeeks said:So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?
Theresa May is used up, like a squeezed lemon.
(b) Roughly 40 Conservative MPs are looking at themselves in the mirror today and perceiving the noble visage of the next First Lord of the Treasury.
Re (b) I was wondering what your personal preference for next Tory PM might be.
Raab is a nitwit. I hope it’s not him.
Despite being wildly unsuitable in many ways, I think the least bad choice is probably Michael Gove. He is both committed to Brexit and willing to compromise in the country's interest. Since he seems to be the only person occupying that position in the Venn diagram, I think it has to be him.
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He was and he wrote extensively about it at the time.Brom said:
If people believe he was a leave voter I have a bridge to sell themwilliamglenn said:
https://www.adamsmith.org/the-liberal-case-for-leave/0 -
Surely they only apply if "there is no agreement in principle in negotiations under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union" - which there is.david_herdson said:
I believe so. It's Sub-sections 13(7) to 13(12).Philip_Thompson said:
Do they? The HoC Twitter account said otherwise earlier.david_herdson said:
She can't. The Withdrawal Act 'No Deal' provisions kick in in late January.grabcocque said:
Nothing. Grieve's motion only comes into effect if the MV is lost. No MV, no Grieve.Pulpstar said:
What happens to Grieve's program motion ?grabcocque said:
She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.Philip_Thompson said:Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
May just needs to delay the MV to 28th March.
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2018/16/section/13
It could be that the HoC twitter feed was referring to the meaningful vote ratifying the WA. if so, that would be right, I think. However, what isn't possible is to get to March 29 without any vote in the Commons mandated by the Act on something or other.0 -
I would hope that Labour throw in a VoNC, but Corbyn seems incompetent to do even that, and I'd hope the 48 letters are going in (and then some) but the Conservatives seem incapable of doing that.Yorkcity said:grabcocque said:
She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.Philip_Thompson said:Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
I see no reason to delay the vote. Just run with it and lose. Delaying is just a storing up a disaster.
I hope either she, or this government, are gone by the end of the week. Early Christmas present for everyone.0 -
I think so but it seems unclear. Court case to come?Pulpstar said:
Doesn't it require primary legislation ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
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The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
Why ? He would lose it and look a bigger prat.TheValiant said:
I would hope that Labour throw in a VoNC,Yorkcity said:grabcocque said:
She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.Philip_Thompson said:Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
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Link doesn't work for me. I wouldn't trust anyone who blogs or tweets for attention.williamglenn said:
He was and he wrote extensively about it at the time.Brom said:
If people believe he was a leave voter I have a bridge to sell themwilliamglenn said:
https://www.adamsmith.org/the-liberal-case-for-leave/0 -
If Art 50 can be revoked by a backbench bill then the SNP might as well try for a UDI ambush when everyone is on holiday !kle4 said:
I think so but it seems unclear. Court case to come?Pulpstar said:
Doesn't it require primary legislation ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.0 -
That depends who replaces her. If it's Boris that's no good. If it's Corbyn sure some will be happy but the parliamentary maths don't make the task ahead easier even with that.TheValiant said:
I would hope that Labour throw in a VoNC, but Corbyn seems incompetent to do even that, and I'd hope the 48 letters are going in (and then some) but the Conservatives seem incapable of doing that.Yorkcity said:grabcocque said:
She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.Philip_Thompson said:Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
I see no reason to delay the vote. Just run with it and lose. Delaying is just a storing up a disaster.
I hope either she, or this government, are gone by the end of the week. Early Christmas present for everyone.0 -
You could call yourselves the Military Collegium of the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom.TheScreamingEagles said:I think Glen and myself will be applying for this job.
https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1072166252423061504?s=210 -
Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.0
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It makes no sense Corbyn moving a VoNC if it will not pass. He is biding his time.TheValiant said:
I would hope that Labour throw in a VoNC, but Corbyn seems incompetent to do even that, and I'd hope the 48 letters are going in (and then some) but the Conservatives seem incapable of doing that.Yorkcity said:grabcocque said:
She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.Philip_Thompson said:Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
I see no reason to delay the vote. Just run with it and lose. Delaying is just a storing up a disaster.
I hope either she, or this government, are gone by the end of the week. Early Christmas present for everyone.0 -
The ECJ ruling seems like forever ago0
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Lol hardly any of this is in the Tory party interest!murali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
He didn't. He was a fellow of the Adam Smith Institute.Brom said:
Link doesn't work for me. I wouldn't trust anyone who blogs or tweets for attention.williamglenn said:
He was and he wrote extensively about it at the time.Brom said:
If people believe he was a leave voter I have a bridge to sell themwilliamglenn said:
https://www.adamsmith.org/the-liberal-case-for-leave/0 -
No Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister.
BTW why do Labour MPs think asking for a Peoples for the 85th time will illicit a different answer than the first 84 times0 -
Certainly interesting times.....DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
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Of course it does. It puts pressure on.old_labour said:
It makes no sense Corbyn moving a VoNC if it will not pass. He is biding his time.TheValiant said:
I would hope that Labour throw in a VoNC, but Corbyn seems incompetent to do even that, and I'd hope the 48 letters are going in (and then some) but the Conservatives seem incapable of doing that.Yorkcity said:grabcocque said:
She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.Philip_Thompson said:Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
I see no reason to delay the vote. Just run with it and lose. Delaying is just a storing up a disaster.
I hope either she, or this government, are gone by the end of the week. Early Christmas present for everyone.
How many VoNC did Thatcher call before her ultimately successful one?0 -
While he is biased I think dan Hodges had a point criticising reports Corbyn is disengaged by this whole process. He's even praised for not really being interested in it.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
But it is very important, he should be leading more.0 -
Corbyn will not win a VoNC. He is right in not pushing for one at this time. It would distract from the difficulties the government is having.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
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EUref2 is now clearly the only way forward given the Commons have refused to back the only Deal on the table and it opposes No Deal0
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I don't actually see how what has happened today has put their interests above the country- I don't see that it was in anyone's interests, not even theirs.murali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
I think May is doing the right thing by trying to smoke out those who are voting against the deal without being straight about their real agenda.kle4 said:
While he is biased I think dan Hodges had a point criticising reports Corbyn is disengaged by this whole process. He's even praised for not really being interested in it.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
But it is very important, he should be leading more.0 -
Tory benches slowly depopulating. Are they all off to write their letters?0
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Corbyn had an open goal and made the most inept hash of it of any opposition leader in recent history, essentially telling May to renegotiate with the EU then admitting the EU will not offer anything moreDavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
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Mr. S, would you like some fries with that hate?0
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Delay, run the clock down, force the pontificating windbags and special pleaders in the HoC to ultimately embrace reality. I think it will work. One way or another we are signing this WA and leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. Cannot see any other viable outcome. Great betting opportunity for me because the consensus now says otherwise. My open position is already scary. Will I have the balls to double it?0
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You think? If he can marshall his own back benchers (big if, admittedly), the SNP, the Lib Dems, PC and the Greens will the DUP support May after today? Will the ERG? I honestly think if this went to a vote the government would fall tomorrow. Whether they could patch things up again in the time allowed by the FTPA may be more open to question but this government is now barely in office, let alone in power.old_labour said:
Corbyn will not win a VoNC. He is right in not pushing for one at this time. It would distract from the difficulties the government is having.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
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As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
The problem with your position is that when everyone's done "embracing reality", there won't be a majority to leave, but to revoke Article 50 (via a referendum).kinabalu said:Delay, run the clock down, force the pontificating windbags and special pleaders in the HoC to ultimately embrace reality. I think it will work. One way or another we are signing this WA and leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. Cannot see any other viable outcome. Great betting opportunity for me because the consensus now says otherwise. My open position is already scary. Will I have the balls to double it?
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I think we now have little choice but to revoke Article 50 while a new way forward can be found.0
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The next best thing for the Brexiteers after actually getting a clean break from the EU this time is a direct vote by Parliament to rescind A50. It would present them with a huge grievance that they could exploit for years to come. Anyone doubting the power of a sovereignty movement equipped with grievances should look North of the Tweed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
One way or another they'll capture the Tory Party (or whatever's left of it,) and sooner or later they'll come to power and reverse the decision again. I think they'd probably do it even if there were a second referendum that went against them, but unilateral action by Parliament should help to accelerate the process.
We should all bear in mind that a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit would establish one convention - that referendums are worthless - and confirm another - that Parliament can do whatever it likes. A future Parliament that contains a Government elected with a working majority on a manifesto commitment to Brexit can dispense with the need for another referendum altogether, and act based on its own mandate alone.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a referendum requires an absolute majority of votes cast. A majority Government can, as was the case with Labour in 2005, be elected on as little as 35% of the vote. The only thing that could change that is if Labour came to power and pushed through PR for Westminster: I've always thought the two big parties had too much self-interest in the status quo ever to vote for that, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong some day?
Even if the Brexiteers lose this battle, there is still no reason why they can't win the war, and reason to suppose that they probably will eventually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.0 -
Have relations ever been so bad between govt and speaker before. Clear they hold each other in complete contempt0
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Cameron had his chance to get rid of Bercow and didnt take itPulpstar said:Have relations ever been so bad between govt and speaker before. Clear they hold each other in complete contempt
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If you ask a different question you still get the same answer so they may as well ask the same question.bigjohnowls said:No Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister.
BTW why do Labour MPs think asking for a Peoples for the 85th time will illicit a different answer than the first 84 times0 -
I don't think the markets would stand for that though.kinabalu said:Delay, run the clock down, force the pontificating windbags and special pleaders in the HoC to ultimately embrace reality. I think it will work. One way or another we are signing this WA and leaving the EU on 29 March 2019. Cannot see any other viable outcome. Great betting opportunity for me because the consensus now says otherwise. My open position is already scary. Will I have the balls to double it?
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The DUP said they will only support a VoNC if the deal passes.DavidL said:
You think? If he can marshall his own back benchers (big if, admittedly), the SNP, the Lib Dems, PC and the Greens will the DUP support May after today? Will the ERG? I honestly think if this went to a vote the government would fall tomorrow. Whether they could patch things up again in the time allowed by the FTPA may be more open to question but this government is now barely in office, let alone in power.old_labour said:
Corbyn will not win a VoNC. He is right in not pushing for one at this time. It would distract from the difficulties the government is having.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
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It would be a mistake to capture the Tory partyBlack_Rook said:
The next best thing for the Brexiteers after actually getting a clean break from the EU this time is a direct vote by Parliament to rescind A50. It would present them with a huge grievance that they could exploit for years to come. Anyone doubting the power of a sovereignty movement equipped with grievances should look North of the Tweed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
One way or another they'll capture the Tory Party (or whatever's left of it,) and sooner or later they'll come to power and reverse the decision again. I think they'd probably do it even if there were a second referendum that went against them, but unilateral action by Parliament should help to accelerate the process.
We should all bear in mind that a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit would establish one convention - that referendums are worthless - and confirm another - that Parliament can do whatever it likes. A future Parliament that contains a Government elected with a working majority on a manifesto commitment to Brexit can dispense with the need for another referendum altogether, and act based on its own mandate alone.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a referendum requires an absolute majority of votes cast. A majority Government can, as was the case with Labour in 2005, be elected on as little as 35% of the vote. The only thing that could change that is if Labour came to power and pushed through PR for Westminster: I've always thought the two big parties had too much self-interest in the status quo ever to vote for that, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong some day?
Even if the Brexiteers lose this battle, there is still no reason why they can't win the war, and reason to suppose that they probably will eventually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.
They need a new party full stop. The tories cant travel well in the North0 -
And if that happens the Con party will remove May before a VoNC - and the DUP will once again support it.old_labour said:
The DUP said they will only support a VoNC if the deal passes.DavidL said:
You think? If he can marshall his own back benchers (big if, admittedly), the SNP, the Lib Dems, PC and the Greens will the DUP support May after today? Will the ERG? I honestly think if this went to a vote the government would fall tomorrow. Whether they could patch things up again in the time allowed by the FTPA may be more open to question but this government is now barely in office, let alone in power.old_labour said:
Corbyn will not win a VoNC. He is right in not pushing for one at this time. It would distract from the difficulties the government is having.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
Dunno how anyone expects Corbyn to win a VoNC with the numbers he faces.0 -
To be quite frank PR may be what we need, then the ERG can finally leave the Tory Party and join UKIP and Farage and the Blairites and ultra Remainers in Labour can go off and join the LDs without risking their seats under a FPTP no longer fit for purposeBlack_Rook said:
The next best thing for the Brexiteers after actually getting a clean break from the EU this time is a direct vote by Parliament to rescind A50. It would present them with a huge grievance that they could exploit for years to come. Anyone doubting the power of a sovereignty movement equipped with grievances should look North of the Tweed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
One way or another they'll capture the Tory Party (or whatever's left of it,) and sooner or later they'll come to power and reverse the decision again. I think they'd probably do it even if there were a second referendum that went against them, but unilateral action by Parliament should help to accelerate the process.
We should all bear in mind that a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit would establish one convention - that referendums are worthless - and confirm another - that Parliament can do whatever it likes. A future Parliament that contains a Government elected with a working majority on a manifesto commitment to Brexit can dispense with the need for another referendum altogether, and act based on its own mandate alone.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a referendum requires an absolute majority of votes cast. A majority Government can, as was the case with Labour in 2005, be elected on as little as 35% of the vote. The only thing that could change that is if Labour came to power and pushed through PR for Westminster: I've always thought the two big parties had too much self-interest in the status quo ever to vote for that, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong some day?
Even if the Brexiteers lose this battle, there is still no reason why they can't win the war, and reason to suppose that they probably will eventually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.0 -
One lives in hope but pre dinner drinks seems more likely.numbertwelve said:Tory benches slowly depopulating. Are they all off to write their letters?
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Slow learners - benefit of comprehensivesbigjohnowls said:No Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister.
BTW why do Labour MPs think asking for a Peoples for the 85th time will illicit a different answer than the first 84 times0 -
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Nigel Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Westminster leader:
"Frankly what the prime minister says today simply isn't credible, is it?
"The prime minister says she's listening, but she talks about assurances and reassurances. Does she not get it by now that the withdrawal agreement legally binding text is not accepted in this house?
"Please listen and amend the withdrawal agreement or it will be voted down."
This is the party that is going to resist a VonC?0 -
That's leaving aside the anti semitic sewer the party now swims in that Murali is perfectly happy to ignore.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!
Plus of course, Team trot want to leave - notwithstanding the views of Starmer and others.0 -
DUP want May gone - not surprising as she stabbed them in the back.DavidL said:Nigel Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Westminster leader:
"Frankly what the prime minister says today simply isn't credible, is it?
"The prime minister says she's listening, but she talks about assurances and reassurances. Does she not get it by now that the withdrawal agreement legally binding text is not accepted in this house?
"Please listen and amend the withdrawal agreement or it will be voted down."
This is the party that is going to resist a VonC?0 -
The DUP won't bring down the Government unless the deal actually passes. They backed Brexit, and seem entirely content to block the Government from getting the backstop through (which they loathe, of course) and allow the clock to run down.DavidL said:
You think? If he can marshall his own back benchers (big if, admittedly), the SNP, the Lib Dems, PC and the Greens will the DUP support May after today? Will the ERG? I honestly think if this went to a vote the government would fall tomorrow. Whether they could patch things up again in the time allowed by the FTPA may be more open to question but this government is now barely in office, let alone in power.old_labour said:
Corbyn will not win a VoNC. He is right in not pushing for one at this time. It would distract from the difficulties the government is having.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
Whether or not they would swallow a very, very soft, Norwayesque Brexit (so long as it treated NI exactly the same as the rest of the country) I don't know, but that's not on the table and there's hardly any time left to arrange it.
The big question is what happens to the Conservative Party if May (a) clings on and (b) goes for the People's Vote option. Even if the DUP agrees to that (and if one of the options was her Deal they would probably revolt and pull the plug on her Government) then dozens of Tories won't, which will mean she'll need a lot of Opposition support to put it through. Would the harder Brexiteers put up with that, or would there be a Tory schism - either immediately, or after the referendum if they didn't get what they wanted?
Right now, your guess is as good as mine.0 -
What is the point in sitting there listening to the same pointless questions being answered over and over again?AmpfieldAndy said:
One lives in hope but pre dinner drinks seems more likely.numbertwelve said:Tory benches slowly depopulating. Are they all off to write their letters?
Too many are saying that they aren't prepared to listen to reasoned debate - so what is the point of it all?0 -
oxfordsimon said:
I have given up on watching the coverage.
We deserve a better political class - there is so little real talent in that House.
Absolutely - but the “only muppets need apply” to party candidate selection in all parties seems to ensure that low standards will continue us. I’d settle for Civil Service reform first.0 -
While all eyes are on Mrs May spare a thought for poor Pres Macron who is scheduled to go and grovel in front of his mation in a couple of hours
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2018/12/10/01016-20181210LIVWWW00023-en-direct-gilets-jaunes-emmanuel-macron-blocages-manifestations-annonces.php0 -
She didn't stab them in the back. She maintained the UK and NI in the same Customs Area. There is still a gap in terms of goods regulations covered by the GFA, but she closed most of it.TGOHF said:
DUP want May gone - not surprising as she stabbed them in the back.DavidL said:Nigel Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Westminster leader:
"Frankly what the prime minister says today simply isn't credible, is it?
"The prime minister says she's listening, but she talks about assurances and reassurances. Does she not get it by now that the withdrawal agreement legally binding text is not accepted in this house?
"Please listen and amend the withdrawal agreement or it will be voted down."
This is the party that is going to resist a VonC?0 -
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:0 -
How can there not be 48 letters after another nothing has changed performance?0
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Of course they do. And if they make support for the government conditional on her going she will go. Which would surely be a massive win for Corbyn? A new leader would be under intense pressure to give him his election. They would have no mandate and would be in a desperate situation. Alternatively, she maintains that nothing has changed or some other such nonsense and the government falls. It really is a no brainer.TGOHF said:
DUP want May gone - not surprising as she stabbed them in the back.DavidL said:Nigel Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Westminster leader:
"Frankly what the prime minister says today simply isn't credible, is it?
"The prime minister says she's listening, but she talks about assurances and reassurances. Does she not get it by now that the withdrawal agreement legally binding text is not accepted in this house?
"Please listen and amend the withdrawal agreement or it will be voted down."
This is the party that is going to resist a VonC?0 -
The fear is that TM wins and is there for 12 more monthsPhilip_Thompson said:How can there not be 48 letters after another nothing has changed performance?
0 -
Indeed Labour is split too and Corbyn's permanent Customs Union plan has no Commons majority eithrrFloater said:
That's leaving aside the anti semitic sewer the party now swims in that Murali is perfectly happy to ignore.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!
Plus of course, Team trot want to leave - notwithstanding the views of Starmer and others.0 -
Why not give her the chance to get humiliated in Brussels this week first ?Philip_Thompson said:How can there not be 48 letters after another nothing has changed performance?
0 -
Not really. They know Remainers are gullible fools that care about the right noises rather than tangible action. They will feel betrayed at the last minute, but at that point Corbyn will have already guaranteed No Deal and a likely Corbyn government, delayed to 2022.AmpfieldAndy said:
Slow learners - benefit of comprehensivesbigjohnowls said:No Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister.
BTW why do Labour MPs think asking for a Peoples for the 85th time will illicit a different answer than the first 84 times0 -
Yes yes, yesTGOHF said:
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:
We know all that - but that was only if the people gave the right result.
Only when the result is "right" will that be the end of the conversation - for them at least.0 -
Mr. Theo, there's to be a customs barrier within British sovereign (apparently) territory, down the Irish Sea.0
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Or alternatively Boris gets to the final 2 and wins the membership vote and ends up May's successor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The fear is that TM wins and is there for 12 more monthsPhilip_Thompson said:How can there not be 48 letters after another nothing has changed performance?
May knows she is also the Boris backstop too0 -
Tell that to the DUP. They, er, respectfully disagree.Theo said:
She didn't stab them in the back. She maintained the UK and NI in the same Customs Area. There is still a gap in terms of goods regulations covered by the GFA, but she closed most of it.TGOHF said:
DUP want May gone - not surprising as she stabbed them in the back.DavidL said:Nigel Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Westminster leader:
"Frankly what the prime minister says today simply isn't credible, is it?
"The prime minister says she's listening, but she talks about assurances and reassurances. Does she not get it by now that the withdrawal agreement legally binding text is not accepted in this house?
"Please listen and amend the withdrawal agreement or it will be voted down."
This is the party that is going to resist a VonC?0 -
Because any replacement would be doing the same thing - going back to the EU to try to renegotiate the backstop. And the EU will have more time for her than an ERGer who they will hate.Philip_Thompson said:How can there not be 48 letters after another nothing has changed performance?
0 -
Not so sure about the first point. As Dodds points out this mess has arisen because May does not listen.Black_Rook said:
The DUP won't bring down the Government unless the deal actually passes.DavidL said:
You think? If he can marshall his own back benchers (big if, admittedly), the SNP, the Lib Dems, PC and the Greens will the DUP support May after today? Will the ERG? I honestly think if this went to a vote the government would fall tomorrow. Whether they could patch things up again in the time allowed by the FTPA may be more open to question but this government is now barely in office, let alone in power.old_labour said:
Corbyn will not win a VoNC. He is right in not pushing for one at this time. It would distract from the difficulties the government is having.DavidL said:Can anyone remember a situation where we have a minority government who cannot rely on their own back benches, the leaders of various minority parties urging the leader of the Opposition to enroll a motion of no confidence and he has nothing to say? I really didn't think that this could get any more bizarre. Once again I have underestimated Mr Corbyn.
Right now, your guess is as good as mine.
Second point is very hard to disagree with!
0 -
Nobody knew what Leave meant last time, given a choice of Deal or No Deal Leave everyone will know this timeTGOHF said:
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:0 -
Agreed, just dust off the Jenkins report. More Tories apart from Hannan supporting PR could improve its prospects.HYUFD said:
To be quite frank PR may be what we need, then the ERG can finally leave the Tory Party and join UKIP and Farage and the Blairites and ultra Remainers in Labour can go off and join the LDs without risking their seats under a FPTP no longer fit for purposeBlack_Rook said:
The next best thing for the Brexiteers after actually getting a clean break from the EU this time is a direct vote by Parliament to rescind A50. It would present them with a huge grievance that they could exploit for years to come. Anyone doubting the power of a sovereignty movement equipped with grievances should look North of the Tweed.TheScreamingEagles said:
[del.]Gallowgate said:[del.]
One way or another they'll capture the Tory Party (or whatever's left of it,) and sooner or later they'll come to power and reverse the decision again. I think they'd probably do it even if there were a second referendum that went against them, but unilateral action by Parliament should help to accelerate the process.
We should all bear in mind that a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit would establish one convention - that referendums are worthless - and confirm another - that Parliament can do whatever it likes. A future Parliament that contains a Government elected with a working majority on a manifesto commitment to Brexit can dispense with the need for another referendum altogether, and act based on its own mandate alone.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a referendum requires an absolute majority of votes cast. A majority Government can, as was the case with Labour in 2005, be elected on as little as 35% of the vote. The only thing that could change that is if Labour came to power and pushed through PR for Westminster: I've always thought the two big parties had too much self-interest in the status quo ever to vote for that, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong some day?
Even if the Brexiteers lose this battle, there is still no reason why they can't win the war, and reason to suppose that they probably will eventually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.
By the way, Wikipedia says that the 1975 referendum was binding on that parliament and was 'expected to be politically binding on all future parliaments'. Why was it so easily overturned?
I was on the losing side but accepted the result, because of the 'binding' nature and because it was so decisive (67/33%).0 -
It really is but so it seems is he.DavidL said:
Of course they do. And if they make support for the government conditional on her going she will go. Which would surely be a massive win for Corbyn? A new leader would be under intense pressure to give him his election. They would have no mandate and would be in a desperate situation. Alternatively, she maintains that nothing has changed or some other such nonsense and the government falls. It really is a no brainer.TGOHF said:
DUP want May gone - not surprising as she stabbed them in the back.DavidL said:Nigel Dodds, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Westminster leader:
"Frankly what the prime minister says today simply isn't credible, is it?
"The prime minister says she's listening, but she talks about assurances and reassurances. Does she not get it by now that the withdrawal agreement legally binding text is not accepted in this house?
"Please listen and amend the withdrawal agreement or it will be voted down."
This is the party that is going to resist a VonC?0 -
You were comfortable enough with Leave's own brand of xenophobia.Floater said:
That's leaving aside the anti semitic sewer the party now swims in that Murali is perfectly happy to ignore.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!
Plus of course, Team trot want to leave - notwithstanding the views of Starmer and others.0 -
This is it. Finding the difference between May's Deal and Labour's ideal Deal is splitting hairs. Their opposition can only be explained by their prizing a GE over the good of the country.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
"We remain committed to the GFA", she says. But the government has to be - it's an international treaty with no equivalent of Lisbon's A50 or the NATO treaty's A13.0
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Afternoon all
An "interesting" day if febrile panic is your kind of interesting.
After this morning's (yes, that long ago!) assertion the vote would take place, May has clearly realised the reality of the defeat facing her and unlike Gladstone on Home Rule has decided the pre-Christmas dinner offering of humiliation followed by her head on a platter (tete farcie avec quarante-huit cahiers) wasn't that appealing.
For all the ERG were mocked on here last month during the coup that never was we now have a similar retreat from May but instead of condemnation we get obsequious admiration from the usual suspects. Let's be clear - May is not to be "admired", May is "not showing stamina", she's doing a job for which she is very well paid and a job she chooses to do. She reminds me more and more of Gordon Brown with an overactive sense of duty gland but the truth is she is like the lab animal in the cage running out of exits, time and road to kick a can down.
Moving on from the Prime Minister to the blunderings of her opponents outside the Conservative Party. Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister of a Labour Government - I get that, I really do but a VoNC in the Commons isn't going to achieve that because the DUP will at worst abstain or, much more likely, back the Conservatives.
In any case, there's no guarantee Corbyn will win a GE - he's a repulsive figure to many and his party's policies are either feared or scorned (delete as appropriate) by a significant group of the population.
Vince Cable has no business playing Labour's games - I'm not sure what a GE and change of Government would achieve at this time - and there's no mileage for the LDs in being seen to be too close to Corbyn. If I were Vince, I'd be talking to Nicola Sturgeon to see what a future bloc of 50+ MPs might be able to extract from the two main parties (assuming neither of them has split in the next few months).
Withy this morning's ECJ ruling we are effectively down to two options - revoke A50 (cancel Brexit) with all the political consequences that will flow from that or proceed to leave without a Deal on 29/3/19. That may have economic consequences (I think these are significantly overstated and can yet be mitigated as Prodi suggested yesterday) but would make political sense.
As of 30/3/19 anyone can advocate rejoining the EU as long as they make it clear the terms on which the UK could rejoin whether they be the 23/6/16 conditions or whether we would be obliged to, for example, join the Eurozone. The EU would need to make clear the conditions on which the UK would be allowed back.
As all this plays out, meanwhile, the overall economic picture darkens.0 -
FPTP, the power of incumbency, brand loyalty, demographics and the political cycle will all make it very hard for Brexiteers to win out in the long run. Added to that people get bored and the political dialectic moves on to other pressing points of contention as will events that are not currently even envisaged by electors.Black_Rook said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry. There’s a pro Remain majority in the Commons.Gallowgate said:This government is a complete disgrace. They've wasted two years and now normal people like myself are anxious about our future. There's no guarantee I will be able to get my medicine from Denmark or Netherlands past March next year. Disgrace.
They’ll vote to revoke a50 if No Deal looks likely.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a referendum requires an absolute majority of votes cast. A majority Government can, as was the case with Labour in 2005, be elected on as little as 35% of the vote. The only thing that could change that is if Labour came to power and pushed through PR for Westminster: I've always thought the two big parties had too much self-interest in the status quo ever to vote for that, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong some day?
Even if the Brexiteers lose this battle, there is still no reason why they can't win the war, and reason to suppose that they probably will eventually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.
Like MP expenses, the poll tax, tory sleaze and issues that have become prevalent down the ages, Brexit will once MPs force the decision to cancel diminish in importance as voters reflect on something new. If austerity ends in 2019 as Brexit is abandoned I can see very little trouble for the political system.
If Farage is no longer UKIP I can see him struggling to get traction in European Parliament elections only a few weeks after Brexit is cancelled in this scenario. Robert Kilroy-Silk can attest to new parties post UKIP not having the momentum to gain MEP seats, anyone remember Veritas?0 -
That is true - at no point were we told that Leave meant a BINO shit sandwich served up by Mrs May over 4 years.HYUFD said:
Nobody knew what Leave meant last timeTGOHF said:
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:
0 -
This is a bogus argument. Nobody knew what In meant in 1975 and the terms changed five times but we didn't get another referendum. It is simply about the political elite in Westminster rejecting democracy to get us to keep voting until we vote the way they want.HYUFD said:
Nobody knew what Leave meant last time, given a choice of Deal or No Deal Leave everyone will know this timeTGOHF said:
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:0 -
The EEC doesn't exist anymore?rural_voter said:
Agreed, just dust off the Jenkins report. More Tories apart from Hannan supporting PR could improve its prospects.HYUFD said:
To be quite frank PR may be what we need, then the ERG can finally leave the Tory Party and join UKIP and Farage and the Blairites and ultra Remainers in Labour can go off and join the LDs without risking their seats under a FPTP no longer fit for purposeBlack_Rook said:
The next best thing for the Brexiteers after actually getting a clean break from the EU this time is a direct vote by Parliament to rescind A50. It would present them with a huge grievance that they could exploit for years to come. Anyone doubting the power of a sovereignty movement equipped with grievances should look North of the Tweed.TheScreamingEagles said:
[del.]Gallowgate said:[del.]
One way or another they'll capture the Tory Party (or whatever's left of it,) and sooner or later they'll come to power and reverse the decision again. I think they'd probably do it even if there were a second referendum that went against them, but unilateral action by Parliament should help to accelerate the process.
We should all bear in mind that a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit would establish one convention - that referendums are worthless - and confirm another - that Parliament can do whatever it likes. A future Parliament that contains a Government elected with a working majority on a manifesto commitment to Brexit can dispense with the need for another referendum altogether, and act based on its own mandate alone.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a referendum requires an absolute majority of votes cast. A majority Government can, as was the case with Labour in 2005, be elected on as little as 35% of the vote. The only thing that could change that is if Labour came to power and pushed through PR for Westminster: I've always thought the two big parties had too much self-interest in the status quo ever to vote for that, but perhaps I'll be proved wrong some day?
Even if the Brexiteers lose this battle, there is still no reason why they can't win the war, and reason to suppose that they probably will eventually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.
By the way, Wikipedia says that the 1975 referendum was binding on that parliament and was 'expected to be politically binding on all future parliaments'. Why was it so easily overturned?
I was on the losing side but accepted the result, because of the 'binding' nature and because it was so decisive (67/33%).
Article 50 was added to introduce an exit mechanism thanks to Gordon Brown ratifying Lisbon?0 -
lolAlastairMeeks said:
You were comfortable enough with Leave's own brand of xenophobia.Floater said:
That's leaving aside the anti semitic sewer the party now swims in that Murali is perfectly happy to ignore.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!
Plus of course, Team trot want to leave - notwithstanding the views of Starmer and others.
I see that reaching out to Leavers is going well0 -
Yes I voted for AV and would now back PR. FPTP is an analogue voting system unsuited to the digital age, Grieve and Mogg and Umunna and Corbyn should not be in the same partyrural_voter said:
Agreed, just dust off the Jenkins report. More Tories apart from Hannan supporting PR could improve its prospects.HYUFD said:
To be quite frank PR may be what we need, then the ERG can finally leave the Tory Party and join UKIP and Farage and the Blairites and ultra Remainers in Labour can go off and join the LDs without risking their seats under a FPTP no longer fit for purposeBlack_Rook said:
The next best thing for the Brexiteers after actually getting a clean break from the EU this time is a direct vote by Parliament to rescind A50. It would present them with a huge grievance that they could exploit for years to come. Anyone doubting the power of a sovereignty movement equipped with grievances should look North of the Tweed.TheScreamingEagles said:
[del.]Gallowgate said:[del.]
One way or another they'll capture the Tory Party (or whatever's left of it,) and sooner or later they'll come to power and reverse the decision again. I think they'd probably do it even if there were a second referendum that went against them, but unilateral action by Parliament should help to accelerate the process.
We should all bear in mind that a Parliamentary vote to stop Brexit would establish one convention - that referendums are worthless - and confirm another - that Parliament can do whatever it likes. A future Parliament that contains a Government elected with a working majority on a manifesto commitment to Brexit can dispense with the need for another referendum altogether, and act based on its ually. All they need is sufficient votes in the right places, and it will no longer matter in the least whether or not the majority of the population is against them.
By the way, Wikipedia says that the 1975 referendum was binding on that parliament and was 'expected to be politically binding on all future parliaments'. Why was it so easily overturned?
I was on the losing side but accepted the result, because of the 'binding' nature and because it was so decisive (67/33%).0 -
That's a fair point.Alanbrooke said:It would be a mistake to capture the Tory party
They need a new party full stop. The tories cant travel well in the North
Of course, there are several ways this could play out, depending on and interacting with the Brexit outcome. The next leader pilots No Deal through the Commons and the Remainers sit on their hands because there's nowhere to go. May or her successor stop Brexit or ram through a referendum, the Brexiteers leave and start their own outfit. The pro-EU types in the Tories and Labour both leave their respective parties and form a National Government to stop Brexit. The Brexiteers sit on their hands, bide their time, and take over further down the line. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that the Tory Leavers could be left with a Brexit they hate or no Brexit at all and still trudge miserably alongside the Tory Remainers out of a common dread of Corbyn, although how that's meant to be sustainable in the long term I don't know.
Really, almost anything could happen.0 -
Yet Labour still trail the Tories with Yougov today anywayKentRising said:
This is it. Finding the difference between May's Deal and Labour's ideal Deal is splitting hairs. Their opposition can only be explained by their prizing a GE over the good of the country.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
Ending Freedom of Movement already means the deal can not be described as BINO in any way, before you get to exit from CAP, CFP, huge membership fees, British courts sovereign and full service regulations returned. Anyone calling it BINO shows themselves to be a hack or an idiot.TGOHF said:
That is true - at no point were we told that Leave meant a BINO shit sandwich served up by Mrs May over 4 years.HYUFD said:
Nobody knew what Leave meant last timeTGOHF said:
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:0 -
One of your finest and fairest posts ever.stodge said:Afternoon all
An "interesting" day if febrile panic is your kind of interesting.
After this morning's (yes, that long ago!) assertion the vote would take place, May has clearly realised the reality of the defeat facing her and unlike Gladstone on Home Rule has decided the pre-Christmas dinner offering of humiliation followed by her head on a platter (tete farcie avec quarante-huit cahiers) wasn't that appealing.
For all the ERG were mocked on here last month during the coup that never was we now have a similar retreat from May but instead of condemnation we get obsequious admiration from the usual suspects. Let's be clear - May is not to be "admired", May is "not showing stamina", she's doing a job for which she is very well paid and a job she chooses to do. She reminds me more and more of Gordon Brown with an overactive sense of duty gland but the truth is she is like the lab animal in the cage running out of exits, time and road to kick a can down.
Moving on from the Prime Minister to the blunderings of her opponents outside the Conservative Party. Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister of a Labour Government - I get that, I really do but a VoNC in the Commons isn't going to achieve that because the DUP will at worst abstain or, much more likely, back the Conservatives.
In any case, there's no guarantee Corbyn will win a GE - he's a repulsive figure to many and his party's policies are either feared or scorned (delete as appropriate) by a significant group of the population.
Vince Cable has no business playing Labour's games - I'm not sure what a GE and change of Government would achieve at this time - and there's no mileage for the LDs in being seen to be too close to Corbyn. If I were Vince, I'd be talking to Nicola Sturgeon to see what a future bloc of 50+ MPs might be able to extract from the two main parties (assuming neither of them has split in the next few months).
Withy this morning's ECJ ruling we are effectively down to two options - revoke A50 (cancel Brexit) with all the political consequences that will flow from that or proceed to leave without a Deal on 29/3/19. That may have economic consequences (I think these are significantly overstated and can yet be mitigated as Prodi suggested yesterday) but would make political sense.
As of 30/3/19 anyone can advocate rejoining the EU as long as they make it clear the terms on which the UK could rejoin whether they be the 23/6/16 conditions or whether we would be obliged to, for example, join the Eurozone. The EU would need to make clear the conditions on which the UK would be allowed back.
As all this plays out, meanwhile, the overall economic picture darkens.
Well said!0 -
I do not think that parliament will sanction a 2nd referendum. Neither a chaotic exit. Which leaves the deal that has been negotiated. I know it seems unlikely right now but I think that ultimately and no doubt after mucho more posturing and hot air it passes due to the absence of alternatives. That's what I keep coming back to. TINA. Does the most committed vegan eat that pork chop when nothing else is on offer or ever will be? They almost certainly do. And if they have only been pretending to be vegan to impress their friends? Well then even more so.williamglenn said:The problem with your position is that when everyone's done "embracing reality", there won't be a majority to leave, but to revoke Article 50 (via a referendum).
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I wonder what the backstop will be re-branded as, the 'wicketkeeper' sounds less threatening to an Englishman.0
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I somehow don't get the impression they would get your vote if they were competent scum.....murali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!0 -
No in 1975 everyone knew we confirmed we joined the Common Market or stayed as we were before.Theo said:
This is a bogus argument. Nobody knew what In meant in 1975 and the terms changed five times but we didn't get another referendum. It is simply about the political elite in Westminster rejecting democracy to get us to keep voting until we vote the way they want.HYUFD said:
Nobody knew what Leave meant last time, given a choice of Deal or No Deal Leave everyone will know this timeTGOHF said:
I think the nation was told the last referendum would be the end of the conversation...HYUFD said:
Leave in 2016 had single market, trade deal or no deal types all voting for it0 -
At some point the more thoughtful Leavers (no sniggering at the back) will realise that Brexit is in grave difficulty precisely because they made no headway in reaching out to Remain voters. That was partly because they did not attempt to do so and partly because they were holed beneath the waterline by the way in which they won.Alanbrooke said:
lolAlastairMeeks said:
You were comfortable enough with Leave's own brand of xenophobia.Floater said:
That's leaving aside the anti semitic sewer the party now swims in that Murali is perfectly happy to ignore.HYUFD said:
As opposed to the pathetic Labour Party whose leader has a Deal plan virtually identical to May's but refuses to support it by putting party politics ahead of the national interestmurali_s said:The Tory party are a f*cking disgrace.
Utter, utter incompetent scum. They deserve to be out of power for a generation, if not forever.
The Tory party has shown once again that it will *always* put its' interests ahead of the national interest. Be gone - pests!
Plus of course, Team trot want to leave - notwithstanding the views of Starmer and others.
I see that reaching out to Leavers is going well
That doesn't seem to stop them opining on the moral failings of others.0
