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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum get

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum gets tighter and tighter

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    First
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Second
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    third rate - like May
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    edited December 2018
    Fourth - like the referendum we'll have to have if the people keep getting the answer wrong.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited December 2018
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    First (backstop to)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited December 2018
    Six!

    Edit: and a wide.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Dodds saying the Withdrawal Agreement HAS to be changed.

    Assurances won't cut it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited December 2018
    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    Just heard about Mrs May's U-Turn. The English language is short of words for fiascos.

    Is this helpful from online thesaurus?
    blunder
    breakdown
    debacle
    disaster
    embarrassment
    failure
    farce
    flap
    flop
    mess
    stunt
    washout
    abortion
    error
    miscarriage
    route
    ruin
    screwup
    botched situation
    dumb thing to do
    dumb trick

    Thanks but still not nailed it. Extraordinary and humiliating failures call for extraordinary words
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Floater said:

    third rate - like May

    Are you sure you're not being very generous there..
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    I am not a number!

    If you are not a number, why did you start with One?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    This is so grim.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    I get the impression that after the 2017 GE she isn't ever again going to do an announcement that actually announces anything.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Surely Dodds statement means now zero point in May continuing.

    Whatever comes out of May discussions with EU, DUP will not support it.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I don't think the Conservative Party is a serious political project at the moment. They need a rest.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    MikeL said:

    Surely Dodds statement means now zero point in May continuing.

    Whatever comes out of May discussions with EU, DUP will not support it.

    It's possible that Corbyn might, of course, especially if he thinks it will lead to a Commons VONC.
  • Roger said:

    philiph said:

    Roger said:

    Just heard about Mrs May's U-Turn. The English language is short of words for fiascos.

    Is this helpful from online thesaurus?
    blunder
    breakdown
    debacle
    disaster
    embarrassment
    failure
    farce
    flap
    flop
    mess
    stunt
    washout
    abortion
    error
    miscarriage
    route
    ruin
    screwup
    botched situation
    dumb thing to do
    dumb trick

    Thanks but still not nailed it. Extraordinary and humiliating failures call for extraordinary words
    A Roger?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    I don't think the Conservative Party is a serious political project at the moment. They need a rest.

    For certain. And, in normal circumstances, we'd just put them out of their misery. But, the Opposition is not a serious project either.
  • So nothing is May's fault?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    For once I was correct May would pull the vote.
    Even though PB told me it could not be done.

  • Yorkcity said:

    For once I was correct May would pull the vote.
    Even though PB told me it could not be done.

    It may still happen after Bercow's intervention
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think the Conservative Party is a serious political project at the moment. They need a rest.

    For certain. And, in normal circumstances, we'd just put them out of their misery. But, the Opposition is not a serious project either.
    A Lib Dem/Labour/SNP coalition might work, on the understanding that no contentious legislation is proposed.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    In fairness they change their mind more than May so I'd take that with a pinch of salt.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Yorkcity said:

    For once I was correct May would pull the vote.
    Even though PB told me it could not be done.

    It may still happen after Bercow's intervention
    But it will be the most meaningless of meaningless votes.
  • This is so exciting.

    I’m not too fussed No Deal means the plebs suffer and we Rejoin by 2030.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    Well.. yes. Obvious in spite of all the unicorn Brexits - Norway +, Norway++, Canada-, Canada+++, Enhanced Brexit, Better Brexit, Mogg's Breakfast, Dog's Breakfast......

    This Deal appears to be dead on the UK side so, No Deal or Remain. What a shocker.
  • If they can’t get those 48 letters now they’re never going to get them
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Yorkcity said:

    For once I was correct May would pull the vote.
    Even though PB told me it could not be done.

    It remains to be seen if it can be done....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited December 2018
    Dennis Skinner sounds very old these days.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    What the fuck was that last intervention? lol
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Brom said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    In fairness they change their mind more than May so I'd take that with a pinch of salt.
    Yes. Something we could take advantage of if we had an effective government. The 'if' in that last sentence being the one that needs to be emphasised.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited December 2018

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    A slip from May in reply to Cooper "..ensure a smooth exit from Brexit"
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    May said No Deal prep was being stepped up further.
  • LOL, that's a good twist which most of us hadn't thought of!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Shit - I agree with May!! (re referenda never ending)
  • Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    So we can have more MPs like Jared O’Mara?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285
    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    You speak for perhaps 25% of the electorate.

    The only way to no deal is either antidemocratic filibuster, or another referendum.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    Well.. yes. Obvious in spite of all the unicorn Brexits - Norway +, Norway++, Canada-, Canada+++, Enhanced Brexit, Better Brexit, Mogg's Breakfast, Dog's Breakfast......

    This Deal appears to be dead on the UK side so, No Deal or Remain. What a shocker.
    Remain it will be then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    So I've not been able to follow things- who has spoken the most sense so far and can they be our next pm, and who has been the biggest arse(my money's on Bercow)?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    Absolutely.

    We don't allow people to serve on juries past the age of 75. Seems reasonable as a limit for all parliamentarians as well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    LOL, that's a good twist which most of us hadn't thought of!
    They've been studying Grieve's homework !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2018
    Nigelb said:

    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    You speak for perhaps 25% of the electorate.

    The only way to no deal is either antidemocratic filibuster, or another referendum.
    Or a new Con leader who can do better than May.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Soubry - odious.
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 100
    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Which would have meant that Churchill would have been forced to retire in 1944.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Not looking pretty for the pound now.
  • Difficult to see how we get Brexit agreed in any form, or a second referendum until May is replaced and a general election held. May is not going to get her deal through Parliament even if she tries to renegotiate the backstop as she now proposes but she is going to block a second referendum.

    Difficult to see how the Tory Party holds together too. The positions of Grieve and Soubry are totally irreconcilable from the positions of Cash and Davis.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    So we can have more MPs like Jared O’Mara?
    We can't base any decision on Labour's poor selection processes
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TGOHF said:

    Nigelb said:

    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    You speak for perhaps 25% of the electorate.

    The only way to no deal is either antidemocratic filibuster, or another referendum.
    Or a new Con leader who can do better than May.
    HoHoHo
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    Yep. No Deal and try our best to have a pro-growth policy environment before Corbyn comes in in 2022 and screws us all. Well done Dominic Grieve, Chukka Umunna, Keir Starmer. You have destroyed all attempts at compromise and driven us to divisive, anger filled politics for a generation.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kle4 said:

    So I've not been able to follow things- who has spoken the most sense so far and can they be our next pm, and who has been the biggest arse(my money's on Bercow)?

    PM spoken most sense. Skinner biggest arse.

    Otherwise it's sun rises in east statements from everyone.
  • Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    So we can have more MPs like Jared O’Mara?
    We can't base any decision on Labour's poor selection processes
    Ok Ben Bradley as an example then.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Nigelb said:

    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    You speak for perhaps 25% of the electorate.

    The only way to no deal is either antidemocratic filibuster, or another referendum.
    Or a new Con leader who can do better than May.
    HoHoHo
    Conversely a new leader couldn't do much worse.
  • So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Goodness me, May's response to Skinner was tetchy. Rattled by an 86-year old quoting one of your predecessors as leader... not a good look.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,285
    TGOHF said:

    Nigelb said:

    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    You speak for perhaps 25% of the electorate.

    The only way to no deal is either antidemocratic filibuster, or another referendum.
    Or a new Con leader who can do better than May.
    Between now and next Spring ?
    Seems absurdly unlikely, especially given the potential candidates.
  • So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Sympathy for his overworked shredder?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    JSpring said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Which would have meant that Churchill would have been forced to retire in 1944.
    We aren't in 1944 now. And setting an upper limit now would be about going forward with a modern parliament.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Plaid: "May should take the threat of No Deal off the table."

    How stupid do you need to be?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Fear of the Boris ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Their candidate won't win and they could end up with JRM.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    The safety of the UK economy? Belief in basic democratic trust with the electorate?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited December 2018
    I need a fluffer. I can't keep up. :lol:
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Nigelb said:

    notme said:

    European Commission statement

    https://twitter.com/MarkJohnstonLD/status/1072131932757078016

    "We will not renegotiate. It's this deal, no deal or remain."

    That’s it. No Deal it is. The remainers and the leavers unwilling to compromise have took us to this point. I can’t see any way back. Let’s prepare and get on with it.
    You speak for perhaps 25% of the electorate.

    The only way to no deal is either antidemocratic filibuster, or another referendum.
    No, the way to no deal is to have no deal.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Both ridiculous suggestions, clearly ageist, and unnecessary.

    If the Bolsover CLP did their job properly, Skinner would not have been their candidate last time.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Both ridiculous suggestions, clearly ageist, and unnecessary.

    If the Bolsover CLP did their job properly, Skinner would not have been their candidate last time.
    Indeed.

    Ken Clarke shows why it is a silly idea.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Soubry - odious.

    That we can agree on
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    JSpring said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Which would have meant that Churchill would have been forced to retire in 1944.
    Well, it would have to be retirement at the first election after their 70th birthday, I suppose. Can't logically kick people out halfway through a term.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Fear of getting worse.
  • Pulpstar said:

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Fear of the Boris ?
    Ha ha ha.
    TGOHF said:

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Their candidate won't win and they could end up with JRM.
    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
    Theo said:

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    The safety of the UK economy? Belief in basic democratic trust with the electorate?
    Heading for no deal hardly honours either of those things.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Are MPs now incapable of asking an original question?

    This isn't holding the PM to account, it is making mini speeches to try to make themselves seem important.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    One by one May is ruling out all the things she might do when her deal is rejected, now or later.
  • So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Political cowardice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Are MPs now incapable of asking an original question?

    This isn't holding the PM to account, it is making mini speeches to try to make themselves seem important.

    This is the age of virtue signalling, for left and right. They might get noticed on the interwebs!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Clearly May sees herself as the hero of the 17.6 million. I think she'd rather run the clock out than hold a second referendum.
  • Are MPs now incapable of asking an original question?

    This isn't holding the PM to account, it is making mini speeches to try to make themselves seem important.

    Just asking for a second referendum over and over again is tedious. We know what her answer is and she isn't going to give a different one this afternoon.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    edited December 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Both ridiculous suggestions, clearly ageist, and unnecessary.

    If the Bolsover CLP did their job properly, Skinner would not have been their candidate last time.
    Correct. It is for electorates to decide who represents them, and for political parties - local and national - to determine who their candidates should be.

    An upper age limit of 70, apart from anything else, would have seen Churchill ejected from parliament in 1944, which would hardly have been helpful to the smooth governance of an even greater crisis than our present one.

    Like the US 22nd amendment, its the wrong answer because it's the wrong question.

    (Edit - worth also noting that Skinner has frittered a 27k majority in 1997 down to 5k now. Granted that some of that is demographic change and obviously some is national political change. All the same, some of it is likely to be personal too).
  • Sean_F said:

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Fear of getting worse.
    I repeat the question.

    Theresa May is used up, like a squeezed lemon.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Donny43 said:

    JSpring said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Which would have meant that Churchill would have been forced to retire in 1944.
    Well, it would have to be retirement at the first election after their 70th birthday, I suppose. Can't logically kick people out halfway through a term.
    Precisely, it is about setting an upper limit for the age of candidates. We already have a lower limit. An upper limit seems eminently reasonable.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited December 2018

    Are MPs now incapable of asking an original question?

    This isn't holding the PM to account, it is making mini speeches to try to make themselves seem important.

    The repeated questions to Theresa May about another referendum annoy me after she has already answered it although whether she means it or not is another matter.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Mrs May has an enviable temperament. As courteous as Blair in his early days. Think how ugly this shambles would be if we had some buffer like IDS or Johnson in charge.

    (*She's not looking too healthy though)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RoyalBlue said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Both ridiculous suggestions, clearly ageist, and unnecessary.

    If the Bolsover CLP did their job properly, Skinner would not have been their candidate last time.
    Not to mention of dubious legality now there is no retirement age.
  • kle4 said:

    Are MPs now incapable of asking an original question?

    This isn't holding the PM to account, it is making mini speeches to try to make themselves seem important.

    This is the age of virtue signalling, for left and right. They might get noticed on the interwebs!
    If I was cynical, I would say the hope is that if you ask enough times, eventually you get a shitty response, either it comes out wrong or sounds overly pissed off (because you have been asked it 300 times) and then you can splice it into a Insta / Facebook video.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited December 2018

    JSpring said:

    Donny43 said:

    Skinner is showing clear signs of senility with his sad contribution

    I think we need an upper age limit on MPs.
    I suggest 70.
    Which would have meant that Churchill would have been forced to retire in 1944.
    We aren't in 1944 now. And setting an upper limit now would be about going forward with a modern parliament.
    Trouble is that would also get rid of people like Ken Clarke. I suspect that there are few from either side of the debate who think losing him would improve the Commons.
  • SeanT said:

    £1 is now worth 41 Thai baht. That's the lowest, as far as I can remember, since I started visiting Thailand 33 years ago. Ouch.

    Another Brexit dividend?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pulpstar said:

    Clearly May sees herself as the hero of the 17.6 million. I think she'd rather run the clock out than hold a second referendum.

    She's not a ConHome user, then?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I thoroughly enjoyed the two articles by @Alanbrooke. Thank you.
  • Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Oh dear. Cable indicating his support for a Labour VoNC. The Lib Dems have just lost me as a voter.

    The stamina May shows is astonishing.
  • Plaid: "May should take the threat of No Deal off the table."

    How stupid do you need to be?

    They're Plaid. How stupid do you have to be to keep losing to Welsh Labour?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sean_F said:

    So what reason do avid Conservative Remainer MPs have to defer putting in their letters to Sir Graham now?

    Fear of getting worse.
    Feck me - what would the odds would be on that?

    Lowest of low bars
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Given the PM says again "nothing has changed" and the EU are insisting "nothing will change" what's the point in delaying the vote?

    She's gonna run down the clock. No MV until late March.
This discussion has been closed.