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EEA+CustomsUnion is not an alternative to May's Deal.Slackbladder said:
It is the sort of end state that would allow us to exit the backstop, or not trigger it in the first place.
However it cannot replace the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because it involves the agreement of third parties to the Withdrawal Agreement. So you are still relying on the EU abandoning the legal certainty of the backstop in favour of a political promise for another arrangement.0 -
The mail on Sunday was a remain supporting newspaper.AllyPally_Rob said:
Haha my mum is the same, buy's the Mail on Sunday and occasionally the Mail in the week. She's Labour Remain, but she likes the magazine and TV guide.Benpointer said:
OTH my mum has bought it daily since the 70s but she's a firm Remainer. She's says "oh, I don't pay any attention to all that politics rubbish".AllyPally_Rob said:
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.0 -
Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different battleground. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.0 -
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.0 -
The backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement would likely be changed to permanent Customs Union and Single Market for NI rather than temporary Customs Union and partial Single Market under the Deal and of course Parliament would have voted for the same conditions to apply to GB which May appease the DUP, though it would infuriate most LeaversOblitusSumMe said:
EEA+CustomsUnion is not an alternative to May's Deal.Slackbladder said:
It is the sort of end state that would allow us to exit the backstop, or not trigger it in the first place.
However it cannot replace the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because it involves the agreement of third parties to the Withdrawal Agreement. So you are still relying on the EU abandoning the legal certainty of the backstop in favour of a political promise for another arrangement.0 -
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.notme said:Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.0 -
This whole thing is spinning out of control now and is starting to feel like the ramifications are going to be bigger than just the fall of the government.grabcocque said:The funny thing about that Times "every possible outcome" spreadsheet is it's a long way from complete.
Some possibilities that are missed:
* May gets the MV passed, DUP VONC her government.
* Government gets an amendment to the MV saying MPs must have a vote on the backstop. EU points out that the WA doesn't say that. WA can't be ratified by the EU27 because May has derogated part of the text.
* May loses the MV, the Norwegians take control, we ask the Council for an extension to do Norway properly, Council says no, doesn't believe our pivot is in good faith.
* May loses the MV, remainers take control, force May to revoke A50. May VONCed. New Tory leader invokes A50 again. ECJ says the second invocation is abusive, refuses.0 -
Ah yes, but surely you are actually claiming I have been forging banknotes.NickPalmer said:
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?0 -
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.Benpointer said:
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.notme said:Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.0 -
Firstly, the comment was not obviously made as a prediction; it was presented as a statement of fact.Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.grabcocque said:
The only place Banks is going is to prison, for a very, very, very long time.TheValiant said:
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
And secondly, yes, I think so. The McAlpine claims - while dealing with more serious subject matter - were made against comments that were much less clear in their meaning.0 -
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
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One can libel by way of innuendo. It would be libellous to say "Will X be shortly arrested for forging banknotes?"Benpointer said:
Ah yes, but surely you are actually claiming I have been forging banknotes.NickPalmer said:
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?0 -
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What happen to the idea that Benn's amendment might be disallowed as a 'wrecking motion'? Is that for Bercow to decide?tpfkar said:
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.Benpointer said:
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.notme said:Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.0 -
As I read it the ECJ (if the AG view is upheld) would refuse the original *revocation* not the second invocationgrabcocque said:The funny thing about that Times "every possible outcome" spreadsheet is it's a long way from complete.
Some possibilities that are missed:
* May gets the MV passed, DUP VONC her government.
* Government gets an amendment to the MV saying MPs must have a vote on the backstop. EU points out that the WA doesn't say that. WA can't be ratified by the EU27 because May has derogated part of the text.
* May loses the MV, the Norwegians take control, we ask the Council for an extension to do Norway properly, Council says no, doesn't believe our pivot is in good faith.
* May loses the MV, remainers take control, force May to revoke A50. May VONCed. New Tory leader invokes A50 again. ECJ says the second invocation is abusive, refuses.0 -
If MPs overwhelmingly vote down May's deal, there's no reason to suppose they'd honour a referendum which backed it.tpfkar said:
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.Benpointer said:
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.notme said:Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.0 -
I do believe Susan Kramer may have put forward the worst argument in history for a 2nd referendum.0
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A dream fit Leadsom and nightmare for JavidHarris_Tweed said:
A nightmare is still a dream, yeah?williamglenn said:0 -
Fucking Hartlepool. LOL.grabcocque said:0 -
Yes. Wrecking amendments are typically out of order. If Bercow did select the amendment, I'd expect a point of order to be raised. Bercow will have to explain why he believes the motion to be effective, and thus in order.Benpointer said:
What happen to the idea that Benn's amendment might be disallowed as a 'wrecking motion'? Is that for Bercow to decide?0 -
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Looks like the Deal would win, if only someone would make the case for itgrabcocque said:
It needs to be up against just one alternative, and some MPs will need a face-saving device to walk back some of their comments. 0 -
If it is a choice between a hard border or never properly exit the EU then I would choose a hard border if there was no possible alternative.AllyPally_Rob said:
You seriously think that if it were possible to leave the EU including the customs union and single market, without a hard border in Ireland that May wouldn't have done it?Xenon said:
Or if only they'd tried to exit the EU so we could become an independent nation as voted for in the largest vote ever in the UK.AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while report Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Unless you think a hard border is fine, in which case go ahead and say it. If not you simply run up against the same pesky facts that have lead us to this terrible but inevitable deal.
Of course we won't know if there was an alternative since the EU bullied the Irish into abandoning finding another solution.0 -
Remain even led with Deltapoll on first preferences but the Deal beat Remain and No Deal head to headgrabcocque said:0 -
Very convenient that, thanks to global warming, all of Nodealia will be under water by 2070.Dura_Ace said:
Fucking Hartlepool. LOL.grabcocque said:
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The numbers for the yougov poll will be very heartening for May, though being a opinion poll it won't become part of the new cycle.0
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Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.80 -
I have this strange aversion to NOT give the nutters what they want when they start mentioning Jo Cox quite frankly. The Tommy brigade will go wild whatever happens.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.0 -
Of course. But would it be libellous to say "I think you will soon be arrested" whilst making no allegation about why? I think not (but I'm not about to try itSean_F said:
One can libel by way of innuendo. It would be libellous to say "Will X be shortly arrested for forging banknotes?"Benpointer said:
Ah yes, but surely you are actually claiming I have been forging banknotes.NickPalmer said:
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?) 0 -
Remain beats No Deal just 52% to 48% but Deal beats No Deal by a huge 62% to 38% with Yougov.Tissue_Price said:Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
Remain and Deal is tied on 50% each0 -
EU article 13 turning into even more of a clusterfuck,
https://torrentfreak.com/major-rightsholders-are-not-happy-with-article-13-either-181206/0 -
So Delltapoll was only a slight outlier. At a constituency level, deal beats Remain easily, despite their being level-pegging. Presumably, Remain would continue to run up vast margins in Inner London and university cities.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It’s on a knife edge.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes, May's deal winning on second prefs in an AV referendum, when over 600 constituencies choose remain as their first choice.Brom said:The numbers for the yougov poll will be very heartening for May, though being a opinion poll it won't become part of the new cycle.
That would DEFINITELY be seen as a legitimate result that would settle the matter. /s
This is why we are never getting an AV (or some kind of Condorcet) referendum. Settles nothing, just causes more endless arguments.0 -
Christchurch is one of the two! Maybe Chope will change his mind?!!!grabcocque said:0 -
You can see which party has the biggest problem - except for the fact that it's in Opposition!
Condorcet winner within each parliamentary constituency by MP party (Deal-Remain):
Con 260-57
Green 0-1
Lab 110-152
LD 0-12
Other 0-1
PC 0-4
SNP 0-350 -
Haha - how ironic!Mortimer said:
Christchurch is one of the two! Maybe Chope will change his mind?!!!grabcocque said:0 -
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!Tissue_Price said:Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.80 -
Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
0 -
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On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-464659030 -
I did that poll just this morning.grabcocque said:Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country?0 -
Calling leavers Nazis is a step up from the usual cries of ignorant and racist.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
It's really getting ridiculous now.0 -
When are white people going to do something about the radicalisation of their youth?AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-464659030 -
Will of the people!GarethoftheVale2 said:
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!Tissue_Price said:Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.80 -
Do the thing in 2 rounds ("which brexit" followed by "do it or not") and it probably works out OK, although you'll have excellent food-fights about funding limits and things.grabcocque said:
Yes, May's deal winning on second prefs in an AV referendum, when over 600 constituencies choose remain as their first choice.Brom said:The numbers for the yougov poll will be very heartening for May, though being a opinion poll it won't become part of the new cycle.
That would DEFINITELY be seen as a legitimate result that would settle the matter. /s
This is why we are never getting an AV (or some kind of Condorcet) referendum. Settles nothing, just causes more endless arguments.
On this polling Deal easily beats No Deal in the first round, then who knows what happens in the second round. On balance I think Remain probably wins because some of the No Deal enthusiasts believe the things their leaders have been spreading in the first round and stay at home in disgust, but it could go either way.0 -
No, I'm calling Nazis Nazis. Nazis are a subset of leavers.Xenon said:
Calling leavers Nazis is a step up from the usual cries of ignorant and racist.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
It's really getting ridiculous now.0 -
Thats a bit of a mess. even a referendum might not solve this issue.grabcocque said:Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.0 -
Indecision 2019!0
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o2 are really boiling my piss today.
Off to the EE shop now.0 -
They address that: "Given the sampling uncertainty associated with the data we have collected, the share supporting Remain in this hypothetical could be anywhere from 47.9 to 52.4% (95% interval estimate)"GarethoftheVale2 said:
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!Tissue_Price said:Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.80 -
Actually that is an argument for parliament letting the people decide by a Remain/Deal referendum. It wouldn't be a stitch-up, since it could go either way.grabcocque said:Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
(Personally I think Remain would win in that scenario, because the Leavers have pre-trashed the deal, making it very hard for them to campaign for confirming leaving with the deal. But that was their decision).0 -
I asked about this some months ago:grabcocque said:
When are white people going to do something about the radicalisation of their youth?AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/05/the-sick-rose-the-disease-in-the-english-hard-right-and-the-failure-of-the-rest-of-the-right-to-confront-it/
Leavers were not willing to accept that they had any part to play in the development of this climate.0 -
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.0 -
Close to ‘overwhelming’ (within 2%).Benpointer said:
Will of the people!GarethoftheVale2 said:
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!Tissue_Price said:Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.80 -
Anyone looking at that YouGov poll and thinking a PV will solve anything is, frankly, a danger to themselves and others.0
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So, importantly (and not under the hugely flawed FPTP system):
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Personally I would take some people's preference data with a pinch of salt - lower preferences might not endure once the first preference is removed. cf. some Brexiteers: "I'd rather Remain than back this Deal" and some Remainers: "this Deal is worse than No Deal".Tissue_Price said:
They address that: "Given the sampling uncertainty associated with the data we have collected, the share supporting Remain in this hypothetical could be anywhere from 47.9 to 52.4% (95% interval estimate)"GarethoftheVale2 said:
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!Tissue_Price said:Central preference data is:
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.80 -
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.Andy_Cooke said:
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.0 -
I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere about Nazi's wanting to get out of Europe.grabcocque said:
No, I'm calling Nazis Nazis. Nazis are a subset of leavers.Xenon said:
Calling leavers Nazis is a step up from the usual cries of ignorant and racist.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
It's really getting ridiculous now.0 -
Benn's amendment is clearly a wrecking amendment designed solely to give Labour MPs the illusion that they are united behind a common approach, when the logic of the wording is that they should simply oppose the motion. Or as individual MPs decide to support something more positive and decisive.grabcocque said:
Yes. Wrecking amendments are typically out of order. If Bercow did select the amendment, I'd expect a point of order to be raised. Bercow will have to explain why he believes the motion to be effective, and thus in order.Benpointer said:
What happen to the idea that Benn's amendment might be disallowed as a 'wrecking motion'? Is that for Bercow to decide?0 -
No, the map is first preferences. This is the head-to-head map for Remain vs Deal:IanB2 said:
I did that poll just this morning.grabcocque said:Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country? 0 -
YouGov state Remain edges that 50/50, so is the Condorcet winner.grabcocque said:Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
The YouGov split down has this:
If considering only Labour voters in the 262 Lab held constituencies Remain wins Condorcet in 262 of them.
If considering only Tory voters in the 318 Tory held constituency, Deal wins Condorcet in all 318.
Playing with subsamples to emphasise a culture split but, just, wow!0 -
Why they doing analysis by seats, when seats are not a factor in a referendum? It all seems hugely misleading.0
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They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.Jonathan said:
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.Andy_Cooke said:
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.0 -
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleadingAndy_Cooke said:
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.Jonathan said:
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.Andy_Cooke said:
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.0 -
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.0 -
That YouGov poll in full:
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But they're not just modelling a referendum, they're modelling the overall political forces at work. You don't need a map for a referendum at all, just look at the headline numbers.Jonathan said:
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleadingAndy_Cooke said:
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.Jonathan said:
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.Andy_Cooke said:
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.0 -
See, if we had a backstop they wouldn't have been able to exclude Northern Ireland.grabcocque said:0 -
Interesting article IMO:
"Over the past 20 years, the old British trait of self-deprecation has been killed off. And in its place, boasting is booming.
Last week, I was told by an 80-year-old Scottish businessman what a successful shipping tycoon he is, how wonderful his poems are, and why young women find him so attractive. Over a three-hour dinner, he never drew breath, never asked a question and only ever talked about his brilliant self.
Tycoon types have always shown off, but now the habit has migrated down the generations and from men — the traditional show-offs — to women. I can no longer face seeing one old friend in her thirties, because every time I see her she says: ‘You know what? I’m bloody good at my job.’
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/britain-has-become-a-country-of-braggarts-and-show-offs/0 -
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.FrancisUrquhart said:
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.0 -
I an sure Sir Christopher Chope would agree with you!Jonathan said:
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleadingAndy_Cooke said:
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.Jonathan said:
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.Andy_Cooke said:
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.0 -
God Bless Broxbourne.0
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FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
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From the Guardian live blog:
Ken Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, asks what McDonnell means by Labour collaborating with the single market. Is Labour advocating full regulatory convergence?
McDonnell says Labour wants a permanent customs union, with the UK having a say in future EU trade deals. He says Labour wants close collaboration with the single market. That would be its opening negotiating position, he says.
That's OK then.0 -
What jumps out from the map is Wales - Wales voted Leave in 2016, yet detailed academic analysis of the result concluded that Wales was less 'leave' than would be expected from the age/education profile of its residents. This latest YouGov poll reveals that Wales is indeed less leavey than England.Tissue_Price said:
No, the map is first preferences. This is the head-to-head map for Remain vs Deal:IanB2 said:
I did that poll just this morning.grabcocque said:Let's have a People's Vote, they said.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country?0 -
Fair point - perhaps you'd need a line in the referendum legislation that if a majority for Deal, it would be implemented. That's what there was for the AV referendum (as the Lib Dems though the Tories might just ignore a successful vote.)Sean_F said:
If MPs overwhelmingly vote down May's deal, there's no reason to suppose they'd honour a referendum which backed it.tpfkar said:
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.Benpointer said:
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.notme said:Benpointer said:
?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.
Personally I think anyone refusing to implement such a specific deal on a referendum outcome would be on a hiding to nothing, but it's easily fixable within the referendum legislation.0 -
I did have to chuckle that one of those identified in the bbc investigation answered the door in his neo nazi hoodie...going to be a bit difficult to claim no knowledge of this neo nazi group. It is a bit like an ISIS terrorist opening the door to reveal a massive ISIS flag and then try to claim nothing to do with them mate.Sean_F said:
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.FrancisUrquhart said:
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.0 -
Modelling it such that a remain/deal/nodeal party wins the seat when they could be split quite evenly is not particularly useful and will just wind MPs up. The maps are unhelpful.Tissue_Price said:
But they're not just modelling a referendum, they're modelling the overall political forces at work. You don't need a map for a referendum at all, just look at the headline numbers.Jonathan said:
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleadingAndy_Cooke said:
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.Jonathan said:
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.Andy_Cooke said:
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats.grabcocque said:
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
If you torture data enough it will tell you anything0 -
Project Fear surelygrabcocque said:FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
0 -
"Over the past 20 years, the old British trait of self-deprecation has been killed off. And in its place, boasting is booming.
Last week, I was told by an 80-year-old Scottish businessman what a successful shipping tycoon he is, how wonderful his poems are, and why young women find him so attractive. Over a three-hour dinner, he never drew breath, never asked a question and only ever talked about his brilliant self.
Tycoon types have always shown off, but now the habit has migrated down the generations and from men — the traditional show-offs — to women. I can no longer face seeing one old friend in her thirties, because every time I see her she says: ‘You know what? I’m bloody good at my job.’
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/britain-has-become-a-country-of-braggarts-and-show-offs/
I tried self deprecation, but I wasn't very good at it.0 -
Agree, but it would be good if this referendum proposal at least got put up for discussion, so we get to hear various Tories explain why FPTP is stupid.Jonathan said:
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading0 -
It's a worldwide phenomenon, honestly. UK stocks haven't been doing markedly worse than stocks anywhere, which is to say: pitifully.Benpointer said:
Project Fear surelygrabcocque said:FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
0 -
I think he means "was at, at the millenium". It's been a tough day on the markets but it's not dropped to about 4300!Benpointer said:
Project Fear surelygrabcocque said:FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
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What strikes me about the map is how most of the country simply wants to get on with it (Deal) whilst the strongest remain areas will never accept leaving the EU.0
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Well that's not true.grabcocque said:FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
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I misread.AlastairMeeks said:
Well that's not true.grabcocque said:FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
London’s FTSE 100 index sinks below where it *ended* the millennium, the worst drop since the day after the Brexit referendum0 -
grabcocque said:
FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
https://media.giphy.com/media/26n6ziTEeDDbowBkQ/giphy.gif 0 -
As Margaret Beckett said, "It's a con! If we pass this deal, it won’t be over. The really serious stuff hasn't started. And it’s going to go on for years.”Pulpstar said:What strikes me about the map is how most of the country simply wants to get on with it (Deal) whilst the strongest remain areas will never accept leaving the EU.
0 -
NB there seems to be no Northern Ireland in this dataset, which is unfortunate but probably a consequence of the modelling requirements.0
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Colin Jordan attempted to form a "well-oiled Nazi machine" in 1962, when he was elected as World Fuhrer. Unwisely, he gave an interview about it to a Daily Mirror journalist, and spent time in jail. Eventually, he had to step down after being caught shoplifting knickers from M & S.FrancisUrquhart said:
I did have to chuckle that one of those identified in the bbc investigation answered the door in his neo nazi hoodie...going to be a bit difficult to claim no knowledge of this neo nazi group. It is a bit like an ISIS terrorist opening the door to reveal a massive ISIS flag and then try to claim nothing to do with them mate.Sean_F said:
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.FrancisUrquhart said:
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
The calibre of these people is not high.
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UK stocks have been doing rather well in the past 18 months. For many of us investors the highs reached earlier this year will far outweigh any drops.0
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A PV that won by less than 52% would be absolute carnage, and is the only thing that could worsen our current state. If following that the UK continued to leave then there would be mass demonstrations. If a PV of 50-52% resulted in the UK not leaving then leavers will justifiably ask why, and that will lead to disorder. A PV's would be an utterly irresponsible choice.0
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Seeing it all as starkly laid out as this, I have to say I regret my vote in the AV referendum. Although that was for parliamentary seats not this - but yes this clearly hows why AV is superior (Still STV or Schulz is superior)edmundintokyo said:
Agree, but it would be good if this referendum proposal at least got put up for discussion, so we get to hear various Tories explain why FPTP is stupid.Jonathan said:
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading0 -
Most of the FTSE has nothing to do with UK economy. The stocks that do have been trashed.grabcocque said:
It's a worldwide phenomenon, honestly. UK stocks haven't been doing markedly worse than stocks anywhere, which is to say: pitifully.Benpointer said:
Project Fear surelygrabcocque said:FTSE drops below the lowest point its been this millennium.
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Define absolute carnage.Chameleon said:A PV that won by less than 52% would be absolute carnage, and is the only thing that could worsen our current state. If following that the UK continued to leave then there would be mass demonstrations. If a PV of 50-52% resulted in the UK not leaving then leavers will justifiably ask why, and that will lead to disorder. A PV's would be an utterly irresponsible choice.
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Given that BT are rapidly replacing the Huawei core network systems with Ericsson replacements are you sure that's a good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:o2 are really boiling my piss today.
Off to the EE shop now.0 -
Oh I dunno, he had good taste in knickers.Sean_F said:
Colin Jordan attempted to form a "well-oiled Nazi machine" in 1962, when he was elected as World Fuhrer. Unwisely, he gave an interview about it to a Daily Mirror journalist, and spent time in jail. Eventually, he had to step down after being caught shoplifting knickers from M & S.
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
The calibre of these people is not high.
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Luckily nearly all of the ISIS terrorists have so far been about on par with that. Even the ones that have got through and killed, if had half a brain, could have killed a lot more.Sean_F said:
Colin Jordan attempted to form a "well-oiled Nazi machine" in 1962, when he was elected as World Fuhrer. Unwisely, he gave an interview about it to a Daily Mirror journalist, and spent time in jail. Eventually, he had to step down after being caught shoplifting knickers from M & S.FrancisUrquhart said:
I did have to chuckle that one of those identified in the bbc investigation answered the door in his neo nazi hoodie...going to be a bit difficult to claim no knowledge of this neo nazi group. It is a bit like an ISIS terrorist opening the door to reveal a massive ISIS flag and then try to claim nothing to do with them mate.Sean_F said:
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.FrancisUrquhart said:
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.AlastairMeeks said:
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.grabcocque said:
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.notme said:
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
The calibre of these people is not high.0
This discussion has been closed.