Yes the likelihood is the Commons either votes for May's Deal on the second vote or EEA and Customs Union
I can't see it voting for May's Deal. They're not going to trash it over and over, then vote for it. EEA is more likely.
EEA+CustomsUnion is not an alternative to May's Deal.
It is the sort of end state that would allow us to exit the backstop, or not trigger it in the first place.
However it cannot replace the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because it involves the agreement of third parties to the Withdrawal Agreement. So you are still relying on the EU abandoning the legal certainty of the backstop in favour of a political promise for another arrangement.
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.
OTH my mum has bought it daily since the 70s but she's a firm Remainer. She's says "oh, I don't pay any attention to all that politics rubbish".
Haha my mum is the same, buy's the Mail on Sunday and occasionally the Mail in the week. She's Labour Remain, but she likes the magazine and TV guide.
The mail on Sunday was a remain supporting newspaper.
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different battleground. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
Can a prediction ever be libellous?
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)
Yes the likelihood is the Commons either votes for May's Deal on the second vote or EEA and Customs Union
I can't see it voting for May's Deal. They're not going to trash it over and over, then vote for it. EEA is more likely.
EEA+CustomsUnion is not an alternative to May's Deal.
It is the sort of end state that would allow us to exit the backstop, or not trigger it in the first place.
However it cannot replace the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because it involves the agreement of third parties to the Withdrawal Agreement. So you are still relying on the EU abandoning the legal certainty of the backstop in favour of a political promise for another arrangement.
The backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement would likely be changed to permanent Customs Union and Single Market for NI rather than temporary Customs Union and partial Single Market under the Deal and of course Parliament would have voted for the same conditions to apply to GB which May appease the DUP, though it would infuriate most Leavers
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
The funny thing about that Times "every possible outcome" spreadsheet is it's a long way from complete.
Some possibilities that are missed:
* May gets the MV passed, DUP VONC her government.
* Government gets an amendment to the MV saying MPs must have a vote on the backstop. EU points out that the WA doesn't say that. WA can't be ratified by the EU27 because May has derogated part of the text.
* May loses the MV, the Norwegians take control, we ask the Council for an extension to do Norway properly, Council says no, doesn't believe our pivot is in good faith.
* May loses the MV, remainers take control, force May to revoke A50. May VONCed. New Tory leader invokes A50 again. ECJ says the second invocation is abusive, refuses.
This whole thing is spinning out of control now and is starting to feel like the ramifications are going to be bigger than just the fall of the government.
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
Can a prediction ever be libellous?
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)
Ah yes, but surely you are actually claiming I have been forging banknotes.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.
..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?
The only place Banks is going is to prison, for a very, very, very long time.
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
Can a prediction ever be libellous?
Firstly, the comment was not obviously made as a prediction; it was presented as a statement of fact.
And secondly, yes, I think so. The McAlpine claims - while dealing with more serious subject matter - were made against comments that were much less clear in their meaning.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
Can a prediction ever be libellous?
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)
Ah yes, but surely you are actually claiming I have been forging banknotes.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?
One can libel by way of innuendo. It would be libellous to say "Will X be shortly arrested for forging banknotes?"
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.
What happen to the idea that Benn's amendment might be disallowed as a 'wrecking motion'? Is that for Bercow to decide?
The funny thing about that Times "every possible outcome" spreadsheet is it's a long way from complete.
Some possibilities that are missed:
* May gets the MV passed, DUP VONC her government.
* Government gets an amendment to the MV saying MPs must have a vote on the backstop. EU points out that the WA doesn't say that. WA can't be ratified by the EU27 because May has derogated part of the text.
* May loses the MV, the Norwegians take control, we ask the Council for an extension to do Norway properly, Council says no, doesn't believe our pivot is in good faith.
* May loses the MV, remainers take control, force May to revoke A50. May VONCed. New Tory leader invokes A50 again. ECJ says the second invocation is abusive, refuses.
As I read it the ECJ (if the AG view is upheld) would refuse the original *revocation* not the second invocation
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.
If MPs overwhelmingly vote down May's deal, there's no reason to suppose they'd honour a referendum which backed it.
What happen to the idea that Benn's amendment might be disallowed as a 'wrecking motion'? Is that for Bercow to decide?
Yes. Wrecking amendments are typically out of order. If Bercow did select the amendment, I'd expect a point of order to be raised. Bercow will have to explain why he believes the motion to be effective, and thus in order.
Looks like the Deal would win, if only someone would make the case for it It needs to be up against just one alternative, and some MPs will need a face-saving device to walk back some of their comments.
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while report Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Or if only they'd tried to exit the EU so we could become an independent nation as voted for in the largest vote ever in the UK.
You seriously think that if it were possible to leave the EU including the customs union and single market, without a hard border in Ireland that May wouldn't have done it?
Unless you think a hard border is fine, in which case go ahead and say it. If not you simply run up against the same pesky facts that have lead us to this terrible but inevitable deal.
If it is a choice between a hard border or never properly exit the EU then I would choose a hard border if there was no possible alternative.
Of course we won't know if there was an alternative since the EU bullied the Irish into abandoning finding another solution.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
I have this strange aversion to NOT give the nutters what they want when they start mentioning Jo Cox quite frankly. The Tommy brigade will go wild whatever happens.
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.
Can a prediction ever be libellous?
Afraid so. If I say "I think you will soon be arrested for forging banknotes", people will conclude that I have some reason for thinking that you do, and it will damage your reputation. (If it happens to be credible, I believe that in some circumstances that can actually be more libellous - vaguely plausible accusations are worse libels than outlandish ones that nobody would believe.)
Ah yes, but surely you are actually claiming I have been forging banknotes.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?
One can libel by way of innuendo. It would be libellous to say "Will X be shortly arrested for forging banknotes?"
Of course. But would it be libellous to say "I think you will soon be arrested" whilst making no allegation about why? I think not (but I'm not about to try it )
So Delltapoll was only a slight outlier. At a constituency level, deal beats Remain easily, despite their being level-pegging. Presumably, Remain would continue to run up vast margins in Inner London and university cities.
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5 Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7 Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9 Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2 No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8 No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
I did that poll just this morning.
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
Calling leavers Nazis is a step up from the usual cries of ignorant and racist.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5 Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7 Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9 Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2 No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8 No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!
The numbers for the yougov poll will be very heartening for May, though being a opinion poll it won't become part of the new cycle.
Yes, May's deal winning on second prefs in an AV referendum, when over 600 constituencies choose remain as their first choice.
That would DEFINITELY be seen as a legitimate result that would settle the matter. /s
This is why we are never getting an AV (or some kind of Condorcet) referendum. Settles nothing, just causes more endless arguments.
Do the thing in 2 rounds ("which brexit" followed by "do it or not") and it probably works out OK, although you'll have excellent food-fights about funding limits and things.
On this polling Deal easily beats No Deal in the first round, then who knows what happens in the second round. On balance I think Remain probably wins because some of the No Deal enthusiasts believe the things their leaders have been spreading in the first round and stay at home in disgust, but it could go either way.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
Calling leavers Nazis is a step up from the usual cries of ignorant and racist.
It's really getting ridiculous now.
No, I'm calling Nazis Nazis. Nazis are a subset of leavers.
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5 Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7 Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9 Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2 No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8 No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!
They address that: "Given the sampling uncertainty associated with the data we have collected, the share supporting Remain in this hypothetical could be anywhere from 47.9 to 52.4% (95% interval estimate)"
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
Actually that is an argument for parliament letting the people decide by a Remain/Deal referendum. It wouldn't be a stitch-up, since it could go either way.
(Personally I think Remain would win in that scenario, because the Leavers have pre-trashed the deal, making it very hard for them to campaign for confirming leaving with the deal. But that was their decision).
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5 Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7 Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9 Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2 No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8 No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5 Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7 Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9 Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2 No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8 No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
So if there is a 2 stage referendum, no option wins on first preferences. Therefore "no deal" is marrowly eliminated and has its preferences redistributed. This then gives remain 50.0%, deal 49.9%!!!
They address that: "Given the sampling uncertainty associated with the data we have collected, the share supporting Remain in this hypothetical could be anywhere from 47.9 to 52.4% (95% interval estimate)"
Personally I would take some people's preference data with a pinch of salt - lower preferences might not endure once the first preference is removed. cf. some Brexiteers: "I'd rather Remain than back this Deal" and some Remainers: "this Deal is worse than No Deal".
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
Calling leavers Nazis is a step up from the usual cries of ignorant and racist.
It's really getting ridiculous now.
No, I'm calling Nazis Nazis. Nazis are a subset of leavers.
I'm sure there's a joke in there somewhere about Nazi's wanting to get out of Europe.
What happen to the idea that Benn's amendment might be disallowed as a 'wrecking motion'? Is that for Bercow to decide?
Yes. Wrecking amendments are typically out of order. If Bercow did select the amendment, I'd expect a point of order to be raised. Bercow will have to explain why he believes the motion to be effective, and thus in order.
Benn's amendment is clearly a wrecking amendment designed solely to give Labour MPs the illusion that they are united behind a common approach, when the logic of the wording is that they should simply oppose the motion. Or as individual MPs decide to support something more positive and decisive.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
I did that poll just this morning.
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country?
No, the map is first preferences. This is the head-to-head map for Remain vs Deal:
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
YouGov state Remain edges that 50/50, so is the Condorcet winner.
The YouGov split down has this:
If considering only Labour voters in the 262 Lab held constituencies Remain wins Condorcet in 262 of them. If considering only Tory voters in the 318 Tory held constituency, Deal wins Condorcet in all 318.
Playing with subsamples to emphasise a culture split but, just, wow!
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading
But they're not just modelling a referendum, they're modelling the overall political forces at work. You don't need a map for a referendum at all, just look at the headline numbers.
"Over the past 20 years, the old British trait of self-deprecation has been killed off. And in its place, boasting is booming.
Last week, I was told by an 80-year-old Scottish businessman what a successful shipping tycoon he is, how wonderful his poems are, and why young women find him so attractive. Over a three-hour dinner, he never drew breath, never asked a question and only ever talked about his brilliant self.
Tycoon types have always shown off, but now the habit has migrated down the generations and from men — the traditional show-offs — to women. I can no longer face seeing one old friend in her thirties, because every time I see her she says: ‘You know what? I’m bloody good at my job.’
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading
I an sure Sir Christopher Chope would agree with you!
Ken Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, asks what McDonnell means by Labour collaborating with the single market. Is Labour advocating full regulatory convergence?
McDonnell says Labour wants a permanent customs union, with the UK having a say in future EU trade deals. He says Labour wants close collaboration with the single market. That would be its opening negotiating position, he says.
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
I did that poll just this morning.
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country?
No, the map is first preferences. This is the head-to-head map for Remain vs Deal:
What jumps out from the map is Wales - Wales voted Leave in 2016, yet detailed academic analysis of the result concluded that Wales was less 'leave' than would be expected from the age/education profile of its residents. This latest YouGov poll reveals that Wales is indeed less leavey than England.
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
?
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different background. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I don't think any MP is seriously suggesting we Remain without a further referendum.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
yes, and that's why I have no truck with those calling a further referendum anti-democratic. Divisive yes, but asking people to confirm once details known is an extension not a denial of democracy.
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.
If MPs overwhelmingly vote down May's deal, there's no reason to suppose they'd honour a referendum which backed it.
Fair point - perhaps you'd need a line in the referendum legislation that if a majority for Deal, it would be implemented. That's what there was for the AV referendum (as the Lib Dems though the Tories might just ignore a successful vote.)
Personally I think anyone refusing to implement such a specific deal on a referendum outcome would be on a hiding to nothing, but it's easily fixable within the referendum legislation.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.
I did have to chuckle that one of those identified in the bbc investigation answered the door in his neo nazi hoodie...going to be a bit difficult to claim no knowledge of this neo nazi group. It is a bit like an ISIS terrorist opening the door to reveal a massive ISIS flag and then try to claim nothing to do with them mate.
From that, we should definitely take the Deal. It's the Concordet winner in a majority of seats. It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
Seats are irrelevant. They certainly were in 2016.
They aren't when informing MPs for their decision.
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading
But they're not just modelling a referendum, they're modelling the overall political forces at work. You don't need a map for a referendum at all, just look at the headline numbers.
Modelling it such that a remain/deal/nodeal party wins the seat when they could be split quite evenly is not particularly useful and will just wind MPs up. The maps are unhelpful.
If you torture data enough it will tell you anything
"Over the past 20 years, the old British trait of self-deprecation has been killed off. And in its place, boasting is booming.
Last week, I was told by an 80-year-old Scottish businessman what a successful shipping tycoon he is, how wonderful his poems are, and why young women find him so attractive. Over a three-hour dinner, he never drew breath, never asked a question and only ever talked about his brilliant self.
Tycoon types have always shown off, but now the habit has migrated down the generations and from men — the traditional show-offs — to women. I can no longer face seeing one old friend in her thirties, because every time I see her she says: ‘You know what? I’m bloody good at my job.’
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading
Agree, but it would be good if this referendum proposal at least got put up for discussion, so we get to hear various Tories explain why FPTP is stupid.
What strikes me about the map is how most of the country simply wants to get on with it (Deal) whilst the strongest remain areas will never accept leaving the EU.
What strikes me about the map is how most of the country simply wants to get on with it (Deal) whilst the strongest remain areas will never accept leaving the EU.
As Margaret Beckett said, "It's a con! If we pass this deal, it won’t be over. The really serious stuff hasn't started. And it’s going to go on for years.”
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.
I did have to chuckle that one of those identified in the bbc investigation answered the door in his neo nazi hoodie...going to be a bit difficult to claim no knowledge of this neo nazi group. It is a bit like an ISIS terrorist opening the door to reveal a massive ISIS flag and then try to claim nothing to do with them mate.
Colin Jordan attempted to form a "well-oiled Nazi machine" in 1962, when he was elected as World Fuhrer. Unwisely, he gave an interview about it to a Daily Mirror journalist, and spent time in jail. Eventually, he had to step down after being caught shoplifting knickers from M & S.
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
A PV that won by less than 52% would be absolute carnage, and is the only thing that could worsen our current state. If following that the UK continued to leave then there would be mass demonstrations. If a PV of 50-52% resulted in the UK not leaving then leavers will justifiably ask why, and that will lead to disorder. A PV's would be an utterly irresponsible choice.
Modelling a referendum by seats, forcing a binary fptp style view is hugely misleading
Agree, but it would be good if this referendum proposal at least got put up for discussion, so we get to hear various Tories explain why FPTP is stupid.
Seeing it all as starkly laid out as this, I have to say I regret my vote in the AV referendum. Although that was for parliamentary seats not this - but yes this clearly hows why AV is superior (Still STV or Schulz is superior)
A PV that won by less than 52% would be absolute carnage, and is the only thing that could worsen our current state. If following that the UK continued to leave then there would be mass demonstrations. If a PV of 50-52% resulted in the UK not leaving then leavers will justifiably ask why, and that will lead to disorder. A PV's would be an utterly irresponsible choice.
Colin Jordan attempted to form a "well-oiled Nazi machine" in 1962, when he was elected as World Fuhrer. Unwisely, he gave an interview about it to a Daily Mirror journalist, and spent time in jail. Eventually, he had to step down after being caught shoplifting knickers from M & S.
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril.
I'm so old that I can remember a time in UK politics where the default position was to oppose Nazis, not try to placate them.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
On a day when far right extremists have been arrested for plotting a terrorist attack, the danger is not a theoretical one, but Leavers are willing to stir up threats to civic society to get what they want.
The BBC recently had an academic expert who studies far right extremism and made it very clear that this isn’t anything new and those involved are extremely small.
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
They also tend to be extremely incompetent, unlike the Continental far right, or jihadists.
I did have to chuckle that one of those identified in the bbc investigation answered the door in his neo nazi hoodie...going to be a bit difficult to claim no knowledge of this neo nazi group. It is a bit like an ISIS terrorist opening the door to reveal a massive ISIS flag and then try to claim nothing to do with them mate.
Colin Jordan attempted to form a "well-oiled Nazi machine" in 1962, when he was elected as World Fuhrer. Unwisely, he gave an interview about it to a Daily Mirror journalist, and spent time in jail. Eventually, he had to step down after being caught shoplifting knickers from M & S.
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
The calibre of these people is not high.
Luckily nearly all of the ISIS terrorists have so far been about on par with that. Even the ones that have got through and killed, if had half a brain, could have killed a lot more.
Comments
It is the sort of end state that would allow us to exit the backstop, or not trigger it in the first place.
However it cannot replace the backstop in the Withdrawal Agreement, not least because it involves the agreement of third parties to the Withdrawal Agreement. So you are still relying on the EU abandoning the legal certainty of the backstop in favour of a political promise for another arrangement.
The sun is bang on the money with that leader. I have never tempted by overt direct action or violence, leave that to the trots and those who lack civility. But you defy this referendum. Do so at your peril. Im no talking ERG with any Brexit without a wall at Dover is a peril. I’m talking about the result of the referendum. We must leave. Our relationship after we left is a different battleground. But anyone seriously thinking that we should ignore the result, you are playing with fire.
I can see (and in fact agree with) the argument that it would be wrong to have a further referendum in the absence of a clear sea-change in opinion (which there is not). But if we did have a further referendum, Leavers could always defeat it.
If you just say "I think you will soon be arrested" what are you accusing me of?
If I was an MP, I think I would be putting pressure on Hilary Benn to withdraw his amendment. It may well squeak through, but will have the effect of preventing the Meaningful Vote taking place. So we will not get a true picture of those who support the deal, just those who oppose it from a Norway/remain angle. the key legal bit in there has already been achieved thanks to Dominic Grieve.
And secondly, yes, I think so. The McAlpine claims - while dealing with more serious subject matter - were made against comments that were much less clear in their meaning.
"It will enrage Nazis if we don't" is one of the worst arguments for why we must Brexit I have ever heard.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=brexit_deal_model
Of course we won't know if there was an alternative since the EU bullied the Irish into abandoning finding another solution.
Remain > Deal > No Deal 37.5
Remain > No Deal > Deal 8.7
Deal > Remain > No Deal 5.9
Deal > No Deal > Remain 21.2
No Deal > Deal > Remain 22.8
No Deal > Remain > Deal 3.8
Remain and Deal is tied on 50% each
https://torrentfreak.com/major-rightsholders-are-not-happy-with-article-13-either-181206/
That would DEFINITELY be seen as a legitimate result that would settle the matter. /s
This is why we are never getting an AV (or some kind of Condorcet) referendum. Settles nothing, just causes more endless arguments.
Condorcet winner within each parliamentary constituency by MP party (Deal-Remain):
Con 260-57
Green 0-1
Lab 110-152
LD 0-12
Other 0-1
PC 0-4
SNP 0-35
They'll be able to resolve it when Parliament can't they said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903
The Remain v no deal result is way too close for comfort.
Edit/ Yet the position looks hugely different on YouGov's map than it does from the aggregate figures. Does Remain really have a wafer thin margin across most of the country?
It's really getting ridiculous now.
On this polling Deal easily beats No Deal in the first round, then who knows what happens in the second round. On balance I think Remain probably wins because some of the No Deal enthusiasts believe the things their leaders have been spreading in the first round and stay at home in disgust, but it could go either way.
Off to the EE shop now.
(Personally I think Remain would win in that scenario, because the Leavers have pre-trashed the deal, making it very hard for them to campaign for confirming leaving with the deal. But that was their decision).
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/05/the-sick-rose-the-disease-in-the-english-hard-right-and-the-failure-of-the-rest-of-the-right-to-confront-it/
Leavers were not willing to accept that they had any part to play in the development of this climate.
It also shows that Remain-versus-No Deal is nip and tuck; Remain-vs-Deal is a photo finish. Reinforcing the article from yesterday.
The YouGov split down has this:
If considering only Labour voters in the 262 Lab held constituencies Remain wins Condorcet in 262 of them.
If considering only Tory voters in the 318 Tory held constituency, Deal wins Condorcet in all 318.
Playing with subsamples to emphasise a culture split but, just, wow!
What has happened is they have changed into an online movement that regularly morphs into different “brands”. One different is these people state that violence is the only way to enact their aims (rather than BNP who would claim they could do it via the ballot box). However, while there is a definite hardcore involved in this scene, we are talking 10s of people, maybe 100+, but not much more.
"Over the past 20 years, the old British trait of self-deprecation has been killed off. And in its place, boasting is booming.
Last week, I was told by an 80-year-old Scottish businessman what a successful shipping tycoon he is, how wonderful his poems are, and why young women find him so attractive. Over a three-hour dinner, he never drew breath, never asked a question and only ever talked about his brilliant self.
Tycoon types have always shown off, but now the habit has migrated down the generations and from men — the traditional show-offs — to women. I can no longer face seeing one old friend in her thirties, because every time I see her she says: ‘You know what? I’m bloody good at my job.’
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/britain-has-become-a-country-of-braggarts-and-show-offs/
Ken Clarke, the Conservative former chancellor, asks what McDonnell means by Labour collaborating with the single market. Is Labour advocating full regulatory convergence?
McDonnell says Labour wants a permanent customs union, with the UK having a say in future EU trade deals. He says Labour wants close collaboration with the single market. That would be its opening negotiating position, he says.
That's OK then.
Personally I think anyone refusing to implement such a specific deal on a referendum outcome would be on a hiding to nothing, but it's easily fixable within the referendum legislation.
If you torture data enough it will tell you anything
"Over the past 20 years, the old British trait of self-deprecation has been killed off. And in its place, boasting is booming.
Last week, I was told by an 80-year-old Scottish businessman what a successful shipping tycoon he is, how wonderful his poems are, and why young women find him so attractive. Over a three-hour dinner, he never drew breath, never asked a question and only ever talked about his brilliant self.
Tycoon types have always shown off, but now the habit has migrated down the generations and from men — the traditional show-offs — to women. I can no longer face seeing one old friend in her thirties, because every time I see her she says: ‘You know what? I’m bloody good at my job.’
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/britain-has-become-a-country-of-braggarts-and-show-offs/
I tried self deprecation, but I wasn't very good at it.
London’s FTSE 100 index sinks below where it *ended* the millennium, the worst drop since the day after the Brexit referendum
Tony Malski was the Field Marshal of the National Socialist Action Party, based in Oxhey. The other members were neighbours who gave themselves military titles. They once tried to bomb the Notting Hill Carnival but got caught.
The calibre of these people is not high.