Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general election?
Poldark is not a documentary. As with many a period drama, it captures in the mirror as much of a picture of the era in which the adaptation was made as that in which it’s set. That’s not just true of the characters and their actions but of the world around them. To take one example, the ease and comfort with which they appear to nip up the 280 miles or so to London from Cornwall (or back) is more in keeping with taking the GWR than being cramped into a stagecoach for perhaps five days across dusty, rutted and/or muddy roads.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I said that I was not sure about the last part because there is likely to be more risk of MPs of other parties being physically unable to attend than Tories who still largely come from the south of England.
Am I not also right in thinking that May becomes even more vulnerable if her MV passes as she loses the DUP for good? And its not like it really helps her that much because she still has to pass other legislation. A tactical abstention by Labour followed by a VONC looks the most likely way to trigger a GE, albeit it is getting to the point you wonder if May could win the MV even if Labour did abstain.
I also wonder if the key vote now is the Benn amendment discussed last night. If that is passed then May's options become even more limited. It seemed to me to be wishing for something not in Parliament's gift, namely no no deal Brexit in the event that the MV is lost. How does the House come to discuss the deal again in that scenario?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Merz
This will only give TSE more ideas..
A bizarre article. In essence
“Parliament was cowed by the referendum, and for too long supine. We are a representative democracy and the sovereign parliament has the right to accept or reject Brexit as it sees fit. The ultimate proof that they understand their true role will be that they assert their pre-eminence by...
...calling for another referendum!”
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2018/12/05/01002-20181205ARTFIG00383-gilets-jaunes-macron-annule-la-hausse-des-taxes-et-corrige-philippe.php
Probably the best outcome from the deal being voted down would be a one year extension of Article 50, although that would require the unanimous agreement of the EU, and would still need someone to come up with a workable way forward. At least we would have a bit of breathing space. Until the next time.
There is a Labour case for not trying the VONC instantly, I think - possibly better to strike when she comes back with trivial changes than when the illusory cake is waiting in Brussels for her to collect.
But I do think a 2019 election is now odds on. Even if May gets her deal, confidence in her is shot. I'd anticipate a leadershiup election in spring and the new leader banking on a honeymood effect - "let me steer you through difficult times" etc. It's actually pretty much the only card the Tories have left, but it's not a bad one.
Polling still shows May as best PM, and the deal as the best one on offer. Don’t see why a new leader should get any sort of honeymoon.
gets my vote
OK for football, rugby (both) but how about motor racing, and especially cricket.
In all seriousness it is beyond me why the government has not already called bank holidays for that period now before it is too obvious that bank holidays will be needed for other reasons then.
And let’s ignore, um, Horse Racing.
PS Over here they're extending the normal Golden Week cluster of public holidays to a full 10 days, as a lot of the computer systems need to be taken offline to change emperors.
As German cities ban diesel vehicles many mobile home drivers appear trapped on their own driveways with vehicles they cant use
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/wohnmobile-und-diesel-fahrverbote-15902131.html
In this country, there are fears that new clean air laws may have strong effects on the country's heritage railways, as coal becomes much more expensive.
The DfE has admitted it had not considered the effects of the new law on steam railways. Hopefully they'll organise something.
(1) The backstop
(2) The fact the WA got published several days before the political declaration, and MPs decided what they thought of the latter based on the former
A shake up would require qualifying the backstop and underlining key parts of the political declaration to show just how detached the UK will be, using language like Canada plus.
I’m convinced that’d unlock about 50 backbench Tory MPs but their trust in May is very low so would need to be several trusted Brexiteers all saying the same thing too.
Regardless a hung parliament would be the last sort to repeal FTPA. FTPA removes the executive's nuclear option re the legislature, dissolution, and makes VoNC less nuclear and thus more useable. Both if these features shift power from the executive to the legislature. There is no way thus particular HoC is going to give up that sway.
If there was movement to be had on the backstop, I think we’d have seen it now. After all, it was the key remaining part of the negotiations back in Autumn. Any MP trying to convince themselves that the problem was that May wasn’t negotiating the backstop hard enough are going to meet reality soon, I think. She clearly did try and push back on it strongly. She didn’t get any further than the UK-wide solution.
The only way they'll vote for something is:
1) It doesn't require them to climb down a hill they've already marched up
2) At the point where they decide whether to climb up the hill, they think the alternative is less brexitty.
I agree she can’t win over all her MPs but she should be able to get 290 votes. The rest depends on the DUP and how some of the Labour backbenches behave.
I think they’d be willing to look for practical qualifications on this. As, indeed, they already have.
Powerful because this is an unholy mess, symbolic because the deal isn't going to change very much and psychological because a good number of MPs are going to need a narrative to change the biggest vote of their lives within a matter of days/weeks.
I think the answer is Theresa May's resignation. She announces she's going in January as soon as a successor is in place. The second vote then passes under her premiership making her still the Moses of for Brexit but not the Joshua. It's a reasonable deal. She gets her legacy. MPs get their sacrificial lamb.
Another suggestion which I think was touted on a previous thread was give the people of Northern Ireland the right to cancel the backstop via a public vote if it is challenged. However under the various parties obligations to the people’s of the island of Ireland it is hard to imagine how you could impose that on the Republic unless there is also a similar vote from south of the border - ie both sides have to agree. Which obviously removes the unilateral element and gives voters in the republic control over the UKs internal policies.
Tis a very fine mess.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-referendum-overspending-high-court-brexit-legal-challenge-void-oxford-professor-a8668771.html
...and some quick number-crunching showing why this seems unlikely:
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1070578577467412480
http://britainelects.com/2018/12/05/previews-06-dec-2018/
The big one is Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh which is 1,190 square miles in size and includes the infamous ferry port of Ullapool.
It's just that nobody sane actually wants a crashout.
I'm still stunned that any MP could put forward a motion rejecting the only deal available and then saying we cannot leave without a deal.
Fiery sky outside. Clouds looked red as I walked the dog. Portents of doom... for someone.
Labour's policy is to make the backstop (aka customs union) permanent. The cheek of them yesterday describing the Legal advice that the backstop potentially trapped the UK in an endless cycle of talks as "the central flaw in May's deal" was something to behold.
Still waiting for somebody to reconcile these two positions.
What will that thing be ?
Any deal is better than no deal. Unless we don't like it.
1) Fix an end date when the trade talks should conclude by. If 7 years is average, your want shorter, say something like March 2023.
2) Commit the UK to full managed no deal investment, including developing a new solution for fhe ttechnical Irish border. This, I guess, would be in the couple of tens of billions range. UK also to contribute to the cost in neighbouring countries especially Ireland, again another couple of tens of billions.
3) A summit in, say, summer 2023 to either sign off the deal or sign off the actions for managed no deal, including a commitment to a minimum regulatory border with a go live date not more than 2 years in the future..
4) If the deal is ready, signed off and implementable earlier, spending on 2) could cease.
5) The current extension and backstop would survive, but would now be further bounded by the above.
Effectively, what I am musing here is putting the Trade Talks under A50 conditions, with No Deal threats continuing, but the development of the No Deal option fully funded by the UK.
Politics would continue much as now for the next 5 years.
And a variant on yesterday's ERG amendment would be in place.
And I'm wondering if something like this, that costs another £40bn, doesn't exclude No Deal and keeps us under A50 deadline pressure, might be the best outcome. This is what we are reduced to.
It's why I'm betting on a temporary PM while the Tory's hold a leadership election and article 50 being revoked - there is no other way out at the moment...
Edit. What I mean is that the EU would have to understand the extra time is needed to get MPs on board with the WA, while Conservative MPs are expecting changes to the WA. Meanwhile Labour wants political advantage for them.
Otherwise it's just a longer clock tick.
You're right that in a negotiating impasse a useful strategy is to widen the discussion to see if one or other party is willing to trade their agreement against concessions elsewhere. But our politicians are struggling to make sense of what they already have on their plate and I don't see anyone up for making a fist of an even bigger challenge?
It literally could mean anything. It's possible that the market could even react positively in the aftermath of the vote, because it may bring some clarity into what happens next. And what the markets like is clarity/certainty.
For the DUP being in a kingmaker position is great if they can influence the results. But if they can't prevent themselves from being disenfranchised forever they're not very powerful kingmakers. They should vote no confidence unless it is clear the backstop is dead. If May won't change it, make it clear if the Tories get a new leader by Boxing Day that will drop the backstop then they will restore confidence.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Perfect timing for them to take charge of the hen house.
Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?