politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general
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and Cameron chose to call the referendum because the thought he had it in the bag. I have no problem with this bar the endless obfuscation of Cameroons who just wont face up to this simple fact.TOPPING said:
A Labour government is a potential disaster, doesn't mean we shouldn't have general elections.Alanbrooke said:
@Topping sorry real life has an irritating habit of getting in the way of bloggingTOPPING said:
Yes - @Alanbrooke if you want to see someone who really believes there are little people (as in the ones who have to pay their taxes/declare things when they have to) - you should watch Boris' apology.grabcocque said:"Asked why he'd systematically and flagrantly violated commons standards by not declaring over 50K of income, the disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is reported to have made some pompous but irrelevant reference to a Greek poet he once read on Twitter."
wrt your earlier post
Cameron was under no obligation to call the referendum.
As was pointed out at the time if Leaving was such a potential disaster he should never have called the referendum.
Camron had other options0 -
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It's hard to see how a no deal wont create a lot of problems, the advantage is it will be like ripping off a sticky plaster and then we can just get on with it. But we will have businesses who lose customers they will never get back. We will have disruption to our just in time society, in which efficiency and logistics are more important than resilience.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,0 -
Honestly I'm surprised he wasn't counted before.Pulpstar said:
He's been bad-mouthing the deal on Twitter for weeks. Was frankly unconscionable to expect he'd support it.0 -
Think you can safely put Plaid in the opposition column. It would take some leap of logic to prop up the Tories.Sean_F said:Re VONC.
Labour can only win this if they first abstain on the MV. That leaves 314 Conservatives + Elphicke + Griffiths (after excluding speaker and one deputy)
323 non-Conservatives (after excluding two Deputy Speakers)
Labour + DUP + SNP+ Green have 303.
So it comes down to the Lib Dems, Plaid, Lady Hermon and 5 ex-Labour. Do they benefit from an early election or not?0 -
0
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He chose to offer it because he needed the Kippers' votes. They gave him the votes, and he then held it because we read his lips - he had offered it.Alanbrooke said:
and Cameron chose to call the referendum because the thought he had it in the bag. I have no problem with this bar the endless obfuscation of Cameroons who just wont face up to this simple fact.TOPPING said:
A Labour government is a potential disaster, doesn't mean we shouldn't have general elections.Alanbrooke said:
@Topping sorry real life has an irritating habit of getting in the way of bloggingTOPPING said:
Yes - @Alanbrooke if you want to see someone who really believes there are little people (as in the ones who have to pay their taxes/declare things when they have to) - you should watch Boris' apology.grabcocque said:"Asked why he'd systematically and flagrantly violated commons standards by not declaring over 50K of income, the disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is reported to have made some pompous but irrelevant reference to a Greek poet he once read on Twitter."
wrt your earlier post
Cameron was under no obligation to call the referendum.
As was pointed out at the time if Leaving was such a potential disaster he should never have called the referendum.
Camron had other options
Politics is sometimes quite simple.0 -
I certainly don't think they'd vote with the Tories. But in deciding whether to vote against, as opposed to abstain, each party needs to decide if a fresh election benefits them (I don't think a fresh election would help the SNP, but they're so viscerally anti-Tory that it won't matter).dixiedean said:
Think you can safely put Plaid in the opposition column. It would take some leap of logic to prop up the Tories.Sean_F said:Re VONC.
Labour can only win this if they first abstain on the MV. That leaves 314 Conservatives + Elphicke + Griffiths (after excluding speaker and one deputy)
323 non-Conservatives (after excluding two Deputy Speakers)
Labour + DUP + SNP+ Green have 303.
So it comes down to the Lib Dems, Plaid, Lady Hermon and 5 ex-Labour. Do they benefit from an early election or not?0 -
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,0 -
He could have got back disaffected righties any time by offering bread and butter policies and toning back the rhetoric on his detox. he chose not to.TOPPING said:
He chose to offer it because he needed the Kippers' votes. They gave him the votes, and he then held it because we read his lips - he had offered it.Alanbrooke said:
and Cameron chose to call the referendum because the thought he had it in the bag. I have no problem with this bar the endless obfuscation of Cameroons who just wont face up to this simple fact.TOPPING said:
A Labour government is a potential disaster, doesn't mean we shouldn't have general elections.Alanbrooke said:
@Topping sorry real life has an irritating habit of getting in the way of bloggingTOPPING said:
Yes - @Alanbrooke if you want to see someone who really believes there are little people (as in the ones who have to pay their taxes/declare things when they have to) - you should watch Boris' apology.grabcocque said:"Asked why he'd systematically and flagrantly violated commons standards by not declaring over 50K of income, the disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is reported to have made some pompous but irrelevant reference to a Greek poet he once read on Twitter."
wrt your earlier post
Cameron was under no obligation to call the referendum.
As was pointed out at the time if Leaving was such a potential disaster he should never have called the referendum.
Camron had other options
Politics is sometimes quite simple.
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If we have a fresh election, I'd still expect the Tories to win 300 or so seats.0
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How different might Brexit have turned out if instead of sacking Osborne, May had made him Brexit secretary?0
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Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.0 -
Yeah I'm going to hold my nerve. Some tinkering perhaps, and loads more noise, but we leave on 29 March 2019 pretty much on these terms. To misquote Bergerac, when you eliminate the 'surely cannot happen' whatever is left, however implausible, must come to pass.TOPPING said:All roads lead to The Deal. I might top up but it does rely on people being halfway sensible.
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He wouldn't have been able to do the job.Scott_P said:How different might Brexit have turned out if instead of sacking Osborne, May had made him Brexit secretary?
He fundamentally disagrees with Brexit, he would have delivered BINO and that's not fair on the electorate.0 -
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
We'll have to agree to see it differently. 4m UKIP voters wanted one thing - an in/out EU referendum. Dave's was the only party (short of UKIP itself) to offer that and he thereby got the votes to form the next government. UKIP didn't want in particular a better NHS, more money spent on defence, or an end to Sure Start (they might of course have wanted all those things). They wanted an EU referendum and that's what they got.Alanbrooke said:
He could have got back disaffected righties any time by offering bread and butter policies and toning back the rhetoric on his detox. he chose not to.TOPPING said:
He chose to offer it because he needed the Kippers' votes. They gave him the votes, and he then held it because we read his lips - he had offered it.Alanbrooke said:
and Cameron chose to call the referendum because the thought he had it in the bag. I have no problem with this bar the endless obfuscation of Cameroons who just wont face up to this simple fact.TOPPING said:
A Labour government is a potential disaster, doesn't mean we shouldn't have general elections.Alanbrooke said:
@Topping sorry real life has an irritating habit of getting in the way of bloggingTOPPING said:
Yes - @Alanbrooke if you want to see someone who really believes there are little people (as in the ones who have to pay their taxes/declare things when they have to) - you should watch Boris' apology.grabcocque said:"Asked why he'd systematically and flagrantly violated commons standards by not declaring over 50K of income, the disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is reported to have made some pompous but irrelevant reference to a Greek poet he once read on Twitter."
wrt your earlier post
Cameron was under no obligation to call the referendum.
As was pointed out at the time if Leaving was such a potential disaster he should never have called the referendum.
Camron had other options
Politics is sometimes quite simple.
Politics.0 -
The funny thing about that Times "every possible outcome" spreadsheet is it's a long way from complete.
Some possibilities that are missed:
* May gets the MV passed, DUP VONC her government.
* Government gets an amendment to the MV saying MPs must have a vote on the backstop. EU points out that the WA doesn't say that. WA can't be ratified by the EU27 because May has derogated part of the text.
* May loses the MV, the Norwegians take control, we ask the Council for an extension to do Norway properly, Council says no, doesn't believe our pivot is in good faith.
* May loses the MV, remainers take control, force May to revoke A50. May VONCed. New Tory leader invokes A50 again. ECJ says the second invocation is abusive, refuses.0 -
Scott_P said:
How different might Brexit have turned out if instead of sacking Osborne, May had made him Brexit secretary?
Quite brilliant counter-factual idea.
However, George can spot a stinking chalice of pure poison when he sees one. So a polite decline I would have thought.0 -
The people advocating (an effectively unplanned) no deal, at some point, will have to engage with and own the practicalities.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Having looked at this in a lot of depth / detail in the last two months, it is literally a complete disaster waiting to happen. And we will still need to - then urgently - negotiate a deal!0 -
Remain v Remain and join the Euro.Slackbladder said:
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
Not really. They can just do what Labour are doing, and claim that if they were in charge things would be so much better and work so easily...tottenhamWC said:
The people advocating (an effectively unplanned) no deal, at some point, will have to engage with and own the practicalities.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Having looked at this in a lot of depth / detail in the last two months, it is literally a complete disaster waiting to happen. And we will still need to - then urgently - negotiate a deal!0 -
Mrs May should have made Gove Brexit Secretary in July 2016.rottenborough said:Scott_P said:How different might Brexit have turned out if instead of sacking Osborne, May had made him Brexit secretary?
Quite brilliant counter-factual idea.
However, George can spot a stinking chalice of pure poison when he sees one. So a polite decline I would have thought.
But like Osborne, she had clashed with him, so she put vindictiveness ahead of the national interest.0 -
A nightmare is still a dream, yeah?williamglenn said:0 -
ITV vs BBCSean_F said:
Remain v Remain and join the Euro.Slackbladder said:
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
So many possibilities adding to total confusion.grabcocque said:The funny thing about that Times "every possible outcome" spreadsheet is it's a long way from complete.
Some possibilities that are missed:
* May gets the MV passed, DUP VONC her government.
* Government gets an amendment to the MV saying MPs must have a vote on the backstop. EU points out that the WA doesn't say that. WA can't be ratified by the EU27 because May has derogated part of the text.
* May loses the MV, the Norwegians take control, we ask the Council for an extension to do Norway properly, Council says no, doesn't believe our pivot is in good faith.
* May loses the MV, remainers take control, force May to revoke A50. May VONCed. New Tory leader invokes A50 again. ECJ says the second invocation is abusive, refuses.
I have come to terms with Que Sera Sera0 -
Had to google her.TheScreamingEagles said:Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.0 -
Since the first referendum decided we would leave , any second referendum would need to be a choice between two different ways of leaving WTO/managed no deal versus May's deal.Slackbladder said:
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
You notice the problem with the lack of quotes there?Andy_Cooke said:
First two lines of the article under the headline:TheJezziah said:
_____________________________________________TrèsDifficile said:TheJezziah said:Slackbladder said:
England will now play either Russia or Croatia in the World Cup 2018 semi-finals on Wednesday 11 July 2018.
_______________________________
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/england-world-cup-2018-semi-final-date-who-play-next-when-russia-croatia-vs-sweden-a8436431.html
Why doesn't the football writer want the English football team to have any team to prepare for possibly the biggest game we have had in decades?! (this article was pretty much straight after our quarter final)
He is as mad as Corbyn in his suggestion we should play the game right now!!
Even if we ignore the impracticality of the Croatia Vs Russia game having to finish before it even starts so our game against the winners can start.
This article is also written on the 7th July. He wants the team to play a game now which is on the 11th July. Somehow they have to bend time to make the 11th July immeadiate.
Either that or this professional journalist is employing a widely used use of the word now that is perfectly acceptable and widely understood and not used against him because there is no political benefit.
Admittedly it is more obvious the football journalist doesn't mean right now when he says now but those seeking political advantage can claim to know exactly what was meant.
"Jeremy Corbyn has said Article 50 must be invoked immediately and that a Leave vote prevailed because of anger against marginalisation and austerity.
He said the result of the poll means the exit clause – Article 50, which would give a two year period for Britain to leave – must be observed as soon as possible in an interview with the BBC"
Couldn't I have wrote a similar article regarding the independent football writer? IFW from here in.
IFW says England must play game against winners of Russia vs Croatia immediately.
IFW says England played well etc. won because players and manager.
He says the game should be played right now on the 11th july despite today being the 7th of July. He also claims the game should be played against the winners of Croatia vs Russia right now before they have even played their quarter final.
Edit:
There is a possibility both me and the other article would be wrong in our assumption that he IFW in my case and Corbyn in theirs meant right now when he said now...
Especially when you consider he agreed with Daniel Hannan that we needed a strategy...
Presumably one that is formed in less time than right now entails?!0 -
For your calendars:
#Brexit: the ruling on the reversibility of #Article50 TEU (case C-621/18 Wightman) will be delivered on 10th December at 9 CET
https://twitter.com/EUCourtPress/status/1070594350948761600?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
Him.Dadge said:
Had to google her.TheScreamingEagles said:Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.
https://tinyurl.com/AlissonYouBeautifulBastard0 -
UKIP simply picked up a lot of the pissed off votersTOPPING said:
We'll have to agree to see it differently. 4m UKIP voters wanted one thing - an in/out EU referendum. Dave was the only party (short of UKIP itself) to offer that and he thereby got the votes to form the next government. UKIP didn't want in particular a better NHS, more money spent on defence, or an end to Sure Start (they might of course have wanted all those things). They wanted an EU referendum and that's what they got.Alanbrooke said:
He could have got back disaffected righties any time by offering bread and butter policies and toning back the rhetoric on his detox. he chose not to.TOPPING said:
He chose to offer it because he needed the Kippers' votes. They gave him the votes, and he then held it because we read his lips - he had offered it.Alanbrooke said:
and Cameron chose to call the referendum because the thought he had it in the bag. I have no problem with this bar the endless obfuscation of Cameroons who just wont face up to this simple fact.TOPPING said:
A Labour government is a potential disaster, doesn't mean we shouldn't have general elections.Alanbrooke said:
@Topping sorry real life has an irritating habit of getting in the way of bloggingTOPPING said:
Yes - @Alanbrooke if you want to see someone who really believes there are little people (as in the ones who have to pay their taxes/declare things when they have to) - you should watch Boris' apology.grabcocque said:"Asked why he'd systematically and flagrantly violated commons standards by not declaring over 50K of income, the disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is reported to have made some pompous but irrelevant reference to a Greek poet he once read on Twitter."
wrt your earlier post
Cameron was under no obligation to call the referendum.
As was pointed out at the time if Leaving was such a potential disaster he should never have called the referendum.
Camron had other options
Politics is sometimes quite simple.
Politics.
Daves plan was to move to the centre and be able to ignore the fruitcakes.
He took a risk and it didnt come off, that's life. It never ceases to amaze me why Cameronns can't accept this.0 -
Becker more decisive than Mercer.TheScreamingEagles said:Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.0 -
'Friends of Leadsom say a Javid-Leadsom leadership bid would be a "dream ticket"...'Harris_Tweed said:
A nightmare is still a dream, yeah?williamglenn said:
Friends of Javid are currently in intensive care from laughing so hard they might fucking die.0 -
John Woodcock would struggle to look his Margaret Thatcher poster in the eye if he let the left get power...Sean_F said:
I think that's correct. 317 votes for the government is probably the target to beat (unless Wollaston refuses to support the government).TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Lady Hermon will do everything to stop Corbyn becoming PM.Sean_F said:Re VONC.
Labour can only win this if they first abstain on the MV. That leaves 314 Conservatives + Elphicke + Griffiths (after excluding speaker and one deputy)
323 non-Conservatives (after excluding two Deputy Speakers)
Labour + DUP + SNP+ Green have 303.
So it comes down to the Lib Dems, Plaid, Lady Hermon and 5 ex-Labour. Do they benefit from an early election or not?
The Lib Dems are very much anti Brexit, but financially they don't have a pot to piss in, so really wouldn't welcome an early election, so they could go either way.
If you are looking for someone else to vote with the Tories he is the most likely.0 -
Remain vs planned, defined, legislated no deal. Parliament either defines a form of Brexit it can agree is deliverable and not catastrophic, which it’s therefore OK to put to the electorate, or if it really can’t identify any form of Brexit that is deliverable and not catastrophic, revokes A50 unilaterally because the referendum was not a choice between deliverable outcomes.Slackbladder said:
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
On a straight, Con against VONC, DUP abstain, everyone else for, that makes it 316-313. DUP for -> 316-323
The variables are few in number:
- unavoidable absences
- any Tory VoNCers: probably not
- Woodcock, O'Mara
- Lady Sylvia
Short of longer odds party oddities: LD demur, SNP get themselves chucked out, SF rock up: it looks to me very much like the DUP do indeed swing this.
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HE HAS A GIRL'S NAMETheScreamingEagles said:
Him.Dadge said:
Had to google her.TheScreamingEagles said:Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.
https://tinyurl.com/AlissonYouBeautifulBastard
(would though)0 -
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
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In fairness, they haven’t said what it is a dream ticket for. They’d be perfect guinea pigs for Mr Dancers Space Cannon.grabcocque said:
'Friends of Leadsom say a Javid-Leadsom leadership bid would be a "dream ticket"...'Harris_Tweed said:
A nightmare is still a dream, yeah?williamglenn said:
Friends of Javid are currently in intensive care from laughing so hard they might fucking die.0 -
Just send them all to Gibraltar. They can live with the monkeys.Scott_P said:0 -
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But would you stare into his eyes and see his Dad Malcolm staring back at you?TheScreamingEagles said:Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.0 -
Interesting idea, if anyone could get Sinn Fein to take their seats and do the dirty on the DUP, it would be Corbyn.Pro_Rata said:On a straight, Con against VONC, DUP abstain, everyone else for, that makes it 316-313. DUP for -> 316-323
The variables are few in number:
- unavoidable absences
- any Tory VoNCers: probably not
- Woodcock, O'Mara
- Lady Sylvia
Short of longer odds party oddities: LD demur, SNP get themselves chucked out, SF rock up: it looks to me very much like the DUP do indeed swing this.0 -
That would require courage on the part of our MPs, and that's where I think I've spotted the flaw in that plan.Polruan said:
Remain vs planned, defined, legislated no deal. Parliament either defines a form of Brexit it can agree is deliverable and not catastrophic, which it’s therefore OK to put to the electorate, or if it really can’t identify any form of Brexit that is deliverable and not catastrophic, revokes A50 unilaterally because the referendum was not a choice between deliverable outcomes.Slackbladder said:
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
Another interesting idea: Corbyn makes the DUP a better offer.
It's not inconceivable.0 -
unlikely theyve already painted themselves in to a cornergrabcocque said:
Interesting idea, if anyone could get Sinn Fein to take their seats and do the dirty on the DUP, it would be Corbyn.Pro_Rata said:On a straight, Con against VONC, DUP abstain, everyone else for, that makes it 316-313. DUP for -> 316-323
The variables are few in number:
- unavoidable absences
- any Tory VoNCers: probably not
- Woodcock, O'Mara
- Lady Sylvia
Short of longer odds party oddities: LD demur, SNP get themselves chucked out, SF rock up: it looks to me very much like the DUP do indeed swing this.
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/sinn-fin-should-resign-seats-in-westminster-ahead-of-brexit-vote-varadkar-37565881.html0 -
Maybe Corbyn will join the Orange Order.grabcocque said:Another interesting idea: Corbyn makes the DUP a better offer.
It's not inconceivable.0 -
In which case, Parliment should never have opened the Pandora's box of the referendum in the first place, but it did.....and that includes labour MPs which voted for it as well.Polruan said:
Remain vs planned, defined, legislated no deal. Parliament either defines a form of Brexit it can agree is deliverable and not catastrophic, which it’s therefore OK to put to the electorate, or if it really can’t identify any form of Brexit that is deliverable and not catastrophic, revokes A50 unilaterally because the referendum was not a choice between deliverable outcomes.Slackbladder said:
And thats the problem with a second referendum. There is no current decision for any binary choice in a referendum which will be respected by parliment.Roger said:
It doesn't much matter what the 'no-dealer' public think because it'll never get a majority in parliament. After Mark Carney's good work not even close.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the media reports from across the UK, the views of mps across parties, and the most recent polls it is hard not to see a comprehensive defeat for the deal
However, I am surprised at the extent of support for no deal and that we have to leave.
In addition it does look like a second referendum is losing ground and becoming less likely
Len McCluskey has put the boot in to those in labour seeking another referendum saying it would be a disaster in leave areas
I am surprised how it appears the demand to leave is growing and becoming a majority view
Or maybe not,
Parliment will reject both no deal, and will reject May's deal, so what would be referendum be on. Remain or ?????0 -
I blame the parents!grabcocque said:
HE HAS A GIRL'S NAMETheScreamingEagles said:
Him.Dadge said:
Had to google her.TheScreamingEagles said:Starting to develop a rather unhealthy fixation with Alisson Becker.
I haven’t had these feelings since Johnny Mercer.
https://tinyurl.com/AlissonYouBeautifulBastard
(would though)0 -
My man Burke quoth:Sean_F said:
That would require courage on the part of our MPs, and that's where I think I've spotted the flaw in that plan.
Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.
Government and legislation are matters of reason and judgment, and not of inclination; and what sort of reason is that, in which the determination precedes the discussion?
Amen sister.0 -
Yes the likelihood is the Commons either votes for May's Deal on the second vote or EEA and Customs UnionScott_P said:0 -
It is the PB law, almost #1. One must consider and then dismiss Sinn Fein turning up at every relevant point.grabcocque said:
Interesting idea, if anyone could get Sinn Fein to take their seats and do the dirty on the DUP, it would be Corbyn.Pro_Rata said:On a straight, Con against VONC, DUP abstain, everyone else for, that makes it 316-313. DUP for -> 316-323
The variables are few in number:
- unavoidable absences
- any Tory VoNCers: probably not
- Woodcock, O'Mara
- Lady Sylvia
Short of longer odds party oddities: LD demur, SNP get themselves chucked out, SF rock up: it looks to me very much like the DUP do indeed swing this.0 -
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.grabcocque said:
The only place Banks is going is to prison, for a very, very, very long time.TheValiant said:
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
0 -
Bannon has been plotting a new Brexit party in the UK for some timeTheValiant said:
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
0 -
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.0 -
is it any different than the voters are too stupid myth ?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while report Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.0 -
I think you've missed the point of the Grieve amendment. May won't now get a chance to put it to a second vote. Whatever Plan B she brings back, the Commons will salami slice it and amend it into whatever they want.HYUFD said:
Yes the likelihood is the Commons either votes for May's Deal on the second vote or EEA and Customs UnionScott_P said:
May gets one and only one chance to stop Parliament from taking back control, and that's winning the MV.0 -
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:0 -
Johnny Mercer has a man crush on AJ from Strictly based on his comments on 'Celebrity Hunted'TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Or if only they'd tried to exit the EU so we could become an independent nation as voted for in the largest vote ever in the UK.AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while report Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.0 -
I was wondering the same thing. I have no power to compel Arron Banks to go to prison, I just think it very likely.Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.grabcocque said:
The only place Banks is going is to prison, for a very, very, very long time.TheValiant said:
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
0 -
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?0 -
Oh great, we're now at the right wing press deliberately inciting gammon violence phase of Brexit.
Still, it's rather sweet in a way. There's still one single, solitary newspaper that hasn't figured out Brexit has failed yet.0 -
I once saw a march in Liverpool Riverside from the Adelphi Hotel, which is as safe a Labour seat as you'll get.Sean_F said:
Maybe Corbyn will join the Orange Order.grabcocque said:Another interesting idea: Corbyn makes the DUP a better offer.
It's not inconceivable.0 -
And you are surely entitled to express your opinion.grabcocque said:
I was wondering the same thing. I have no power to compel Arron Banks to go to prison, I just think it very likely.Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.grabcocque said:
The only place Banks is going is to prison, for a very, very, very long time.TheValiant said:
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
0 -
You seriously think that if it were possible to leave the EU including the customs union and single market, without a hard border in Ireland that May wouldn't have done it?Xenon said:
Or if only they'd tried to exit the EU so we could become an independent nation as voted for in the largest vote ever in the UK.AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while report Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Unless you think a hard border is fine, in which case go ahead and say it. If not you simply run up against the same pesky facts that have lead us to this terrible but inevitable deal.0 -
Of course not, no Boris story on the BBC headlines and Boris leads the latest ConHome Tory members poll by more than second placed Javid and Raab combinedTheScreamingEagles said:I remember when Jeremy Hunt was referred to the standards commissioner @HYUFD said that was the end of Hunt's leadership ambitions.
Hunt was cleared but Boris was not.
Hopefully HYUFD will be consistent and say that today is the end of the disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake Boris Johnson's leadership ambitions.0 -
Though it is worth pointing out that at the next election, having stuck to his principles by voting against the wishes of his constituents, he was summarily ejected by the voters of Bristol. He also opposed extending the franchise on the basic grounds that the people were not bright enough to make decisions.grabcocque said:
My man Burke quoth:Sean_F said:
That would require courage on the part of our MPs, and that's where I think I've spotted the flaw in that plan.
Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.
Government and legislation are matters of reason and judgment, and not of inclination; and what sort of reason is that, in which the determination precedes the discussion?
Amen sister.
Not exactly a great advert for Parliamentary democracy.0 -
Mostly Leavers perhaps? They could always go and live in Stoke. If they don't like it, the A50 option to leave is somewhat easier.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:0 -
but how will they get back ?eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:
There will be no cars or planes or trains and even if they get here they can only eat soil for the rest of their lives etc.0 -
You know what they say: the best argument against representative democracy is a five minute convesation with Nadine Dorries.Richard_Tyndall said:
Though it is worth pointing out that at the next election, having stuck to his principles by voting against the wishes of his constituents, he was summarily ejected by the voters of Bristol. He also opposed extending the franchise on the basic grounds that the people were not bright enough to make decisions.
Not exactly a great advert for Parliamentary democracy.
At least I think that's how it goes.0 -
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.0 -
OTH my mum has bought it daily since the 70s but she's a firm Remainer. She's says "oh, I don't pay any attention to all that politics rubbish".AllyPally_Rob said:
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.0 -
Given they'll all be retired why would they need to move back to the south (and we mean the South East), the only advantage of which I can see are better employment prospects.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:
They might all move to one of the prettier but cheaper places without much employment. Pembrokeshire perhaps.0 -
Haha my mum is the same, buy's the Mail on Sunday and occasionally the Mail in the week. She's Labour Remain, but she likes the magazine and TV guide.Benpointer said:
OTH my mum has bought it daily since the 70s but she's a firm Remainer. She's says "oh, I don't pay any attention to all that politics rubbish".AllyPally_Rob said:
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.0 -
The Sun is losing around 7-8% of its readers every year, so if the purpose of the editorial line is to sell more papers, it clearly doesn't work.AllyPally_Rob said:
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.0 -
I think their hope is if they can get a few more MPs taken out then parliament will come to its senses and listen to their demands...grabcocque said:Oh great, we're now at the right wing press deliberately inciting gammon violence phase of Brexit.
Still, it's rather sweet in a way. There's still one single, solitary newspaper that hasn't figured out Brexit has failed yet.0 -
The A50 runs through Stoke (or the eastern part of it) so a good location for Leavers....Pro_Rata said:
Mostly Leavers perhaps? They could always go and live in Stoke. If they don't like it, the A50 option to leave is somewhat easier.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said: 0 -
Five minutes? Wow! That’s serious stamina.grabcocque said:
You know what they say: the best argument against representative democracy is a five minute convesation with Nadine Dorries.Richard_Tyndall said:
Though it is worth pointing out that at the next election, having stuck to his principles by voting against the wishes of his constituents, he was summarily ejected by the voters of Bristol. He also opposed extending the franchise on the basic grounds that the people were not bright enough to make decisions.
Not exactly a great advert for Parliamentary democracy.
At least I think that's how it goes.0 -
Maybe it's best, given the site, to term such predictions in betting terms. Quite what odds might be deemed libellous would be an interesting case. Is 3/1 (there's a chance) libellous? How about 5/6 (more likely than not)? What about 1/5 (really pretty likely)? Or 1/1000 (a virtual certainty)?Benpointer said:
Can a prediction ever be libellous?david_herdson said:
That is a potentially libellous comment and you or the moderators might want to think about amending or deleting it.grabcocque said:
The only place Banks is going is to prison, for a very, very, very long time.TheValiant said:
I've seen this already. Did you mean to say Farage and BANKS? Or do you really believe Steve Bannon is going to come here and help Farage?HYUFD said:..... probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after....
0 -
I leave via the A50 every day. I live in hope of a faster transport arrangement, or FTA for short.Beverley_C said:
The A50 runs through Stoke (or the eastern part of it) so a good location for Leavers....Pro_Rata said:
Mostly Leavers perhaps? They could always go and live in Stoke. If they don't like it, the A50 option to leave is somewhat easier.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:0 -
Maybe time to revoke your travel plans?Tissue_Price said:
I leave via the A50 every day. I live in hope of a faster transport arrangement, or FTA for short.Beverley_C said:
The A50 runs through Stoke (or the eastern part of it) so a good location for Leavers....Pro_Rata said:
Mostly Leavers perhaps? They could always go and live in Stoke. If they don't like it, the A50 option to leave is somewhat easier.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:
0 -
This doesn’t even make sense. It seems some remainers are suffering with the same derangement present in some brexiteeers.TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
I guilted my mum (not intentionally) into not buying the Daily Mail years ago, she's very left wing and doesn't get sky because of Rupert Murdoch so I didn't do much more than ask her why she does considering the stuff it prints I think she gave a similar answer about liking other parts.AllyPally_Rob said:
Haha my mum is the same, buy's the Mail on Sunday and occasionally the Mail in the week. She's Labour Remain, but she likes the magazine and TV guide.Benpointer said:
OTH my mum has bought it daily since the 70s but she's a firm Remainer. She's says "oh, I don't pay any attention to all that politics rubbish".AllyPally_Rob said:
If it echo's their readers it sells copies, that's pretty much the sole motivating factor with the tabloid press.Benpointer said:
What I find hard to comprehend is the mentality and motivation of the leader writers. Do they really believe this stuff? Do they think it echoes their readers' beliefs? Do they just not give a shit so long as it creates good copy?AllyPally_Rob said:
“Merely the result of a Remainer Government guided by a Europhile civil service, then crippled by an election disaster, conducting a half hearted and naive negotiation while keeping Cabinet Brexiteers in the dark”.williamglenn said:
Here you have it folks. The "stab in the back myth" is already up and running.
If only the cabinet had believed in Brexit more. If only they'd all worn union jack boxers and sung Rule Britannia at sun rise every morning.
God forbid that any of their readers believe this nonsense.
Related, is the DM still holiding the May Deal line?
Some of my extended family have been buying the Sun for over 20 years on a daily basis, and this line pretty much matches their opinion.0 -
Tissue_Price said:
I leave via the A50 every day. I live in hope of a faster transport arrangement, or FTA for short.Beverley_C said:
The A50 runs through Stoke (or the eastern part of it) so a good location for Leavers....Pro_Rata said:
Mostly Leavers perhaps? They could always go and live in Stoke. If they don't like it, the A50 option to leave is somewhat easier.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said: Good luck with that one 
0 -
Brexit Britain.
0 -
I don't think many people who live in France / Spain voted leave?Pro_Rata said:
Mostly Leavers perhaps? They could always go and live in Stoke. If they don't like it, the A50 option to leave is somewhat easier.eek said:
A lot of them (who came from the South) will discover that they cannot afford to return. I'm aware of a few people who looked into it and gave it up as a bad job...Scott_P said:0 -
Let me let you into a little secret...notme said:
This doesn’t even make sense. It seems some remainers are suffering with the same derangement present in some brexiteeers.TheScreamingEagles said:
... it's a joke.0 -
Jonathan said:
Five minutes? Wow! That’s serious stamina.grabcocque said:
You know what they say: the best argument against representative democracy is a five minute convesation with Nadine Dorries.Richard_Tyndall said:
Though it is worth pointing out that at the next election, having stuck to his principles by voting against the wishes of his constituents, he was summarily ejected by the voters of Bristol. He also opposed extending the franchise on the basic grounds that the people were not bright enough to make decisions.
Not exactly a great advert for Parliamentary democracy.
At least I think that's how it goes.
Most mps on all sides tend to be considered individuals who take their role very seriously.
0 -
A frisson ?TheScreamingEagles said:
0
