politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the third day of Christmas, our MPs sent to me – a general
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It's not all bad, looking on the bright side it's distracted the government and prevented them from doing other things.kle4 said:All this has been for nothing.
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The first post I have read this morning and very truealex. said:
I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.HYUFD said:
MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted downYellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?0 -
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after0 -
HYUFD said:
If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
For what it's worth, a referendum asking a choice between leave but stay in SM and CU or leave on the current deal would have a genuine legitimacy because it is not a re-run of 2016, and either answer delivers the actual mandate of 2016 (ie leaving the EU). Until that mandate is legally and actually delivered we can't move on.0 -
Chart of what happens if the May Deal goes down
https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/10705735176897617920 -
Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.IanB2 said:Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?
The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.
The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".
Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?0 -
Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote0
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Ha. Phew.edmundintokyo said:
It's not all bad, looking on the bright side it's distracted the government and prevented them from doing other things.kle4 said:All this has been for nothing.
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Mr. Me, yeah. Not fond of that sort of thing.
Mr. NorthWales, well, that at least is sensible. Had heard it'd be a few days later, which would've been rather silly.0 -
A General Election is surely inconceivable until or unless the Tories ditch May after her catastrophic failure in the last election. Once they’ve ditched her, a General Election makes eminent sense - let voters decide whether they want their current elected representatives who have made such a horlicks over Brexit and totally abandoned domestic policy to do it.0
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Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you goalex. said:
I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.HYUFD said:
MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted downYellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?
Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?0 -
The latest YouGov survey asks for a ranking of Deal, No Deal and No Brexit (at the end of a long survey about holidays) - it will be interesting to see how that comes out.0
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Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
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That'll keep those remainers fired up.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
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Except the fact it is the only option now with a likely Commons majority and it avoids the economic disaster of No Deal or the huge division and uncertainty of EUref2.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Even the DUP could vote for it if it applies to the whole UK, the SNP and LDs and most Labour MPs and Lucas and Hermon and probably around half of Tory MPs will vote for it if the Deal goes down0 -
An outrage! Every single post I've ever made is a lovingly hand crafted piece of pure originality!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The first post I have read this morning and very truealex. said:
I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.HYUFD said:
MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted downYellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?0 -
Given May's character, I can't see anything other than she will lose the vote and then announce she is going back to the EU in the New Year.algarkirk said:I wonder whether one could look at this the other way round, and start from the assumption that the HoC is not going to take any steps which involves a timetable of having actually to do anything or be anywhere particular, or cause special annoyance to the voting public, between about 23 December and 3 January. Maybe only after such a calculation can you try to discern the course of events.
This buys her one more Xmas in Downing Street.0 -
Which EU institutions would we be staying in, precisely?HYUFD said:
Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you goalex. said:
I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.HYUFD said:
MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted downYellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?
Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?
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So the amendment gets carried, as does the amended motion, everyone says "that's fair enough", 48 letters don't appear, no VONC, no GE, all the MPs go off for Xmas, and in the New Year the whole thing is sorted out quickly with the EU, agreed by Parliament, and Mrs M stays in post to implement it all? That sounds great, especially for my £/$ trade.HYUFD said:
Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you goalex. said:
I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.HYUFD said:
MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted downYellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?
Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?0 -
Except without a Commons majority for EUref2 there cannot be one and there is no Commons majority for EUref2 at the momentalgarkirk said:HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
For what it's worth, a referendum asking a choice between leave but stay in SM and CU or leave on the current deal would have a genuine legitimacy because it is not a re-run of 2016, and either answer delivers the actual mandate of 2016 (ie leaving the EU). Until that mandate is legally and actually delivered we can't move on.0 -
Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after0 -
I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?
The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.
If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.
So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.
We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.0 -
Would they need more deliberation and a longer written reasoning if they chose to contradict the EU AG than if they agreed his opinion? In other words, does the speed give any hint?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
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It is just amazing - the way things are going the ECJ will require the EU 27 states to agree unanimouslyAlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Not that I expect that - it seems logical the UK will be able to withdraw it upto the date of implementation
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That makes all the difference doesnt it. Letwin is a fully paid up member of the “managed decline club”.Dura_Ace said:
Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after0 -
It’s a two fingered salute to the electorate from MPs who think they know better even though most of them aren’t fit to hold the positions they do.HYUFD said:
Except the fact it is the only option now with a likely Commons majority and it avoids the economic disaster of No Deal or the huge division and uncertainty of EUref2.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Even the DUP could vote for it if it applies to the whole UK, the SNP and LDs and most Labour MPs and Lucas and Hermon and probably around half of Tory MPs will vote for it if the Deal goes down0 -
All that Friday fish & chips?OblitusSumMe said:
Yellow weather warning for wind for northern GB tomorrow.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Fiery sky outside. Clouds looked red as I walked the dog. Portents of doom... for someone.0 -
If there’s one red line I think may would never break it is the Freedom of Movement one. It’s crackers, and it almost certainly wouldn’t have a majority support in the House of Commons. Political journalists saying that are talking to a very narrow band of MPs and making some enormous assumptions. FoM is THE reason Preventing Labour MPs from coming out for remain on masse.Dura_Ace said:
Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
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The speed tells us merely that they think it's urgent. I wouldn't read anything too much into that.Pro_Rata said:
Would they need more deliberation and a longer written reasoning if they chose to contradict the EU AG than if they agreed his opinion? In other words, does the speed give any hint?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
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If the DUP are so insistent on being treated identically to GB can we look forward them to campaigning for 1967 abortion act to be applied in Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:
Except the fact it is the only option now with a likely Commons majority and it avoids the economic disaster of No Deal or the huge division and uncertainty of EUref2.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Even the DUP could vote for it if it applies to the whole UK, the SNP and LDs and most Labour MPs and Lucas and Hermon and probably around half of Tory MPs will vote for it if the Deal goes down0 -
Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10706023994615971840 -
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawalstodge said:
I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?
The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.
If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.
So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.
We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.0 -
Not sure but it would be surprising if it didn't confirm the AG opinionPro_Rata said:
Would they need more deliberation and a longer written reasoning if they chose to contradict the EU AG than if they agreed his opinion? In other words, does the speed give any hint?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
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I wonder what it would take for the remaining 6% to make up their mind?AlastairMeeks said:Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1070602399461597184
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Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.0 -
And we think TM has problemsAlastairMeeks said:Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10706023994615971840 -
That’s seriously impressive.AlastairMeeks said:Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1070602399461597184
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This feels like they're heading for the finale of Hamlet.edmundintokyo said:
Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.0 -
Meanwhile, in other undoubtedly-absolutely-nothing-to-do-with-Brexit-and-how-dare-you-suggest-that-they-draw-any-kind-of-inspiration-from-anti-immigration-populism-news:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46465903?ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social0 -
Busy day yesterday so little time for PB - catching up on Alastair’s very good header and then a cracker from David H, too.El_Capitano said:
Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.IanB2 said:Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?
The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.
The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".
Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
Another referendum seems so far down any path analysis as to be impossible to suggest as likely. After the MV, I can see three options:
Deal passes - unlikely, baring events
Deal fails big - May resigns
Deal fails small - May tries to tweak or has a plan B
Reading the tunes, I’d say something like 5%, 75% and 20% likelihood respectively, at present.0 -
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawalstodge said:
I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?
The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.
If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.
So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.
We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.0 -
he'll go lowerAlastairMeeks said:Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1070602399461597184
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2018/12/06/20002-20181206ARTFIG00051-routiers-agriculteurs-cheminots-la-contestation-se-propage.php
rail unions say they wont ask for fares from anyone wearing a yellow vest this weekend
truck drivers, unions, farmers, students are all calling for mass action this weekend
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Should probably chuck a potential King Charles into the mix.AlastairMeeks said:
This feels like they're heading for the finale of Hamlet.edmundintokyo said:
Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
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TM resigns just causes utter chaos and no matter the vote I expect her to continue until or unless she is vnocMortimer said:
Busy day yesterday so little time for PB - catching up on Alastair’s very good header and then a cracker from David H, too.El_Capitano said:
Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.IanB2 said:Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?
The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.
The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".
Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
Another referendum seems so far down any path analysis as to be impossible to suggest as likely. After the MV, I can see three options:
Deal passes - unlikely, baring events
Deal fails big - May resigns
Deal fails small - May tries to tweak or has a plan B
Reading the tunes, I’d say something like 5%, 75% and 20% likelihood respectively, at present.0 -
Hollande was lower, at 13% in September 2014.IanB2 said:
I wonder what it would take for the remaining 6% to make up their mind?AlastairMeeks said:Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10706023994615971840 -
Small issue of the Brexit Act (or whatever it was called)paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawalstodge said:
I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?
The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.
If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.
So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.
We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
0 -
Paddys have a market on next cabinet member to resign. May is 4/1 3rd fav after Mordaunt and Leadsom but on your analysis shes the one to be on. I agree but deadheat rules apply so.if loads go on same day it does mess things up.Mortimer said:
Busy day yesterday so little time for PB - catching up on Alastair’s very good header and then a cracker from David H, too.El_Capitano said:
Because places like Bedford and Worcester are where EUref2 will be won or lost.IanB2 said:Eight random residents of Bedford on R4 now; why Bedford of all places?
The media likes to have an away-day in Jaywick or Boston and indulge in hand-wringing about "left-behind Britain" and "forgotten small-town England" and all of that, but it's lazy journalism, just recycling stereotypes about the extremes. Jaywick will always vote Out and Oxford will always vote In. It's passable social commentary but doesn't tell you anything new. The current Guardian piece about Clacton is a prime example.
The Bedfords of England are the "battleground states".
Incidentally, on the header, David's point that "there are (as far as I can see) no intercity trains running on Boxing Day" is debatable. Southeastern are running their Highspeed service and that probably counts as intercity. Chiltern are running to Oxford Parkway, and if they get the 68s out then that's definitely intercity, though perhaps not if it's just 168s. Where's Sunil when you need him?
Another referendum seems so far down any path analysis as to be impossible to suggest as likely. After the MV, I can see three options:
Deal passes - unlikely, baring events
Deal fails big - May resigns
Deal fails small - May tries to tweak or has a plan B
Reading the tunes, I’d say something like 5%, 75% and 20% likelihood respectively, at present.0 -
I honestly do not know but in the circumstances I would hope sopaulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawalstodge said:
I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?
The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.
If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.
So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.
We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.0 -
by Christmas Macron will be aspiring to those dizzy heightsPulpstar said:
Hollande was lower, at 13% in September 2014.IanB2 said:
I wonder what it would take for the remaining 6% to make up their mind?AlastairMeeks said:Following on from @Alanbrooke's article yesterday:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10706023994615971840 -
edmundintokyo said:
Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
The final scenes of the Brexit season finale would cut to the credits just as a judge at the ECJ begins to read the verdict, and MPs start to queuing up to vote.0 -
Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.
0 -
Is she that catastrophically lacking self-awareness? She is part of the problem now. She has to know that after the way she has lied to and betrayed just about everyone involved in this tawdry, ignorant mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM resigns just causes utter chaos and no matter the vote I expect her to continue until or unless she is vnoc0 -
Len McCluskey of Unite has told labour Unite will not support a second referendum as it would have serious consequences in leave areas0
-
It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?0 -
Thankseek said:
It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?0 -
Paddys 5/1 we revoke by 30/03/2019.paulyork64 said:
Thankseek said:
It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?0 -
In a normal circumstances you are correct but these are far from normal, though I do not accept your description of her.Dura_Ace said:
Is she that catastrophically lacking self-awareness? She is part of the problem now. She has to know that after the way she has lied to and betrayed just about everyone involved in this tawdry, ignorant mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM resigns just causes utter chaos and no matter the vote I expect her to continue until or unless she is vnoc
TM resigning will not help the next few weeks and it is not in her nature. She will of course need the support of her cabinet and majority of her party0 -
Or alternatively force the PM auto invoke Article 51 and join the EU one second after Brexiteek said:
It has to be done by the Prime Minister or Government. However, were it the case that the only option was to revoke A50 I suspect we would rapidly have a new PM..paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?0 -
There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.0 -
I hope you are right. Many of us have said all along that nothing good will come of it. Whether Brexit dies or prevails, it has damaged our wealth and international prestige. Those public figures that endorsed this folly, and the useful idiots like Corbyn that allowed it to continue, need to be called to account.kle4 said:
There is nothing. If the first vote was close, maybe. But it wont be. The deal is dead and brexit dying. All this has been for nothing.YellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?0 -
After the credit we cut to a dark and rainy night on the South Bank. Boris is leaning against a lamp post and trying to have a piss. He is too drunk and is just pissing all over his trousers and shoes.not_on_fire said:edmundintokyo said:
Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.
The final scenes of the Brexit season finale would cut to the credits just as a judge at the ECJ begins to read the verdict, and MPs start to queuing up to vote.
"My word," he slurs. "I think there's blood in it."
FIN0 -
why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plotTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.0 -
You think Mays got problems , you want to try being a Saints fan.
They are second from bottom in the premiership, yet are third in the Premiership on the number of shots. Amazingly they have had more shots than Liverpool and 30 more than Arsenal. Saints have had 96 more shots than Brighton yet are 12 points behind them.
Last night they lost 3-1 to Spurs and guess who was the BBC's Man of the Match, Spurs Goalkeeper, Saints also hit the wordwork 3 times.0 -
The HoC does not have the capacity to instruct withdrawl; it is the legislature, not the executive. Only the executive can do that, so the only way the HoC could affect that would be to either pressure the executive, or replace the PM via a VONCstodge said:
Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.0 -
New from the BBC:
Theresa May says she "is talking to colleagues" about their concerns over the Northern Ireland "backstop" ahead of a crucial vote on her EU deal.
She suggested MPs could be "given a role" in deciding whether to activate the backstop, which is designed to stop the return of a physical border.But she told the BBC there could be no deal with the EU without a backstop.
It comes amid speculation Tuesday's Commons vote could be delayed to avoid a defeat for the prime minister.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46463326
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We may be outside the Parliament, Commission and Council but we would still be in the single market and customs union with free movement, no ability to do trade deals and required to adhere to European Court rulings. So in reality we would be in the orbit of the EU and little would changealex. said:
Which EU institutions would we be staying in, precisely?HYUFD said:
Given we would be staying in the EU institutions effectively and making the huge concession of free movement a transition a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period are much simpler as there will be no future trade relationship to negotiate, we will be in the orbit of the EU in all but name. So there you goalex. said:
I know most of us are guilty of repeating ourselves from time to time, but at least most of us try to say things in slightly different ways and from slightly different angles.HYUFD said:
MPs will vote to stay in the single market and customs union, we know that now after the big announcement yesterday Morgan and Letwin will propose that to the House using the Grieve amendment soon after the Deal is voted down, if it is voted downYellowSubmarine said:They have to pass this deal. If they don't we'll end up Remaining. It looks baked in that an initial rejection is necessery to trigger the crisis needed to secure subsequent passage. So the question is what is going to happen between the first and second votes to give cover to those MPs who's national duty it is to vote different ways on the biggest issue of their lives within a few days/weeks. That thing needs to be powerful but also symbolic as the deal isn't going to fundamentally change.
What will that thing be ?
Remind me once again, in case I missed it on the previous 50 times you posted this identical paragraph, how do we get to this outcome (even assuming EU agreement) without a Withdrawal agreement, transition period, and several months (at least) of further negotiations?0 -
We discussed this yesterday and I still don't see your point. To have a policy saying "X is fine" is straightforward. To have a policy saying "We definitely don't want X but we can't be sure if we can avoid it" is an inherently flawed proposal.alex. said:
Labour's policy is to make the backstop (aka customs union) permanent. The cheek of them yesterday describing the Legal advice that the backstop potentially trapped the UK in an endless cycle of talks as "the central flaw in May's deal" was something to behold.
Still waiting for somebody to reconcile these two positions.
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Mr alex,
"FoM is THE reason Preventing Labour MPs from coming out for remain on masse."
Let's be honest, FOM is the reason that Leave won the referendum. The rest is dancing on pin heads.
Brexit central (Boston) has had mass white immigration. Although the Baltic states are white, Christian, like a drink (hence the drink-drive convictions have shot up), they generally have Russian as their second language - hence integration is slow and schools crowded and under-funded.
You could blame the government for not helping, but it's easier and cheaper to throw out accusations of racism than spend money. You reap what you sow..
PS there are racists everywhere, and in all communities including the immigrant ones. And the Labour party. All part of life's rich tapestry.
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My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.0 -
Just imagine what the Ken Burns Vietnam-style documentary of this will be like.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
0 -
Making it not a backstop and therefore not acceptable to the EU.IanB2 said:New from the BBC:
Theresa May says she "is talking to colleagues" about their concerns over the Northern Ireland "backstop" ahead of a crucial vote on her EU deal.
She suggested MPs could be "given a role" in deciding whether to activate the backstop, which is designed to stop the return of a physical border.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46463326
Could the SNP be bought off with something?0 -
The SNP and LDs about half of Tory MPs and most Labour MPs would vote for the Letwin amendment, Remainers as the next best option if they cannot get EUref2 through. If Labour MPs in Leave seats want to end free movement they must vote for the Dealalex. said:
If there’s one red line I think may would never break it is the Freedom of Movement one. It’s crackers, and it almost certainly wouldn’t have a majority support in the House of Commons. Political journalists saying that are talking to a very narrow band of MPs and making some enormous assumptions. FoM is THE reason Preventing Labour MPs from coming out for remain on masse.Dura_Ace said:
Oliver Letlabourwin likes it so there's that.AmpfieldAndy said:
Unrestricted immigration, no say on trading laws but being bound by them, having to pay for trade, no fisheries policy even though we would be out of the CFP, no ability to do independent trade deals etc - it’s got nothing going for it.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after0 -
I'm halfway through watching that. Am impressed muchly.Cyclefree said:
Just imagine what the Ken Burns Vietnam-style documentary of this will be like.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
0 -
There is that also. Which Tory party would you be voting for.Alanbrooke said:
why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plotTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.0 -
Well, quite but there's plenty of evidence from the past few days the executive isn't running the show at the moment and the legislature has "taken back control" so to speak.Nigel_Foremain said:
The HoC does not have the capacity to instruct withdrawl; it is the legislature, not the executive. Only the executive can do that, so the only way the HoC could affect that would be to either pressure the executive, or replace the PM via a VONCstodge said:
Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.0 -
I can't see a May-led government doing that.Richard_Tyndall said:
My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.0 -
Bloody hell that is a good series I have seen seven so far and am really looking forward to the remaining episodes.Cyclefree said:
Just imagine what the Ken Burns Vietnam-style documentary of this will be like.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
0 -
The only reason would be to stop a thick little anti-Semitic scarecrow who behaves like sixth form common room bore from holding the highest office of state in the land. That would be my reasoning.Alanbrooke said:
why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plotTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.0 -
Leaving without a Deal means the worst recession since the 1930s potentially.stodge said:
I can see why such a sequence of events would be attractive for you as it saves May, the Deal and her Government at the same time.HYUFD said:If May's Deal falls ironically her government will be secure as the DUP have confirmed they will still back the government on a VONC so a general election would be unlikely.
However with the huge announcement last night that following the Grieve amendment Letwin and Morgan will propose to the Commons the UK stays in the single market and customs union in the event May's Deal is voted down we now know what the end result is increasingly looking like ie BINO with full free movement and the UK unable to do trade Deals. All the reports suggest there is a Commons majority for the Letwin and Morgan amendment there is not for the Deal and EUref2 or No Deal.
May in my view once that amendment is passed will then effectively adopt that as her backup, warning the ERG and Labour MPs in Leave seats if they do not back her Deal on the second vote they will end up with BINO and the fury of Leave voters crying 'betrayal' will then be unleashed, probably with a new Farage and Bannon party started soon after
Life doesn't always work out how you want, though, does it?
The Morgan-Letwin BINO has no status - there is a Withdrawal Agreement which the EU and May have already agreed. That is in effect what is being debated and the EU have said there's no further negotiation so any other "plan" has no status.
If we don't agree the WA, the options are either to leave without a Deal in as ordered and managed a way as possible or seek to extend A50 for further negotiation. It doesn't matter for what there is or isn't a majority apart from the WA for which there is clearly no majority at present.
So in the end the final card is immigration - threatening the continuation of Freedom of Movement if the WA isn't agreed. It was all going to come down to this, wasn't it? The threats of which you speak to Labour and ERG MPs apply to Conservative MPs in pro-REMAIN areas so it cuts both ways.
We would of course end Freedom of Movement on 29/3/19 if we left without any kind of Deal but leaving without a Deal doesn't have to mean a disorderly exit and chaos. There's still time for the planning which you derided the other day to be done and for measures to be put in place - it's late and it will cost but chaos can be prevented without passing a Deal which so many find so unsatisfactory.
As a last resort the Letwin amendment ad it concedes free movement would make withdrawal not that difficult as we stay in the single market and customs union and abide by all the rules0 -
Im voting for the one that wants to smash the stateTOPPING said:
There is that also. Which Tory party would you be voting for.Alanbrooke said:
why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plotTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.
currently Im spoiled for choice :-)
SWP are simply nancy boy amateurs0 -
As Hislop said yesterday a general election solves nothing. Even if Corbyn becomes PM it would then just switch to Labour divisions and infighting, toing and froing from Brussels and still a likely hung parliamentTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.0 -
A surprising use of the word reasoning.Nigel_Foremain said:
The only reason would be to stop a thick little anti-Semitic scarecrow who behaves like sixth form common room bore from holding the highest office of state in the land. That would be my reasoning.Alanbrooke said:
why would anyone vote Tory ? They've lost the plotTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.0 -
Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.Richard_Tyndall said:
My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.0 -
Yes it does seem that the grown-ups (aka the moderates) seem to be making something of a come-back. I am still hopeful (though not optimistic) that there could be a realignment, with a unity figure chosen as a PM. Very unlikely of course, as our system means that any MP that backed such a move would probably be deselected by the headbangers in their respective partystodge said:
Well, quite but there's plenty of evidence from the past few days the executive isn't running the show at the moment and the legislature has "taken back control" so to speak.Nigel_Foremain said:
The HoC does not have the capacity to instruct withdrawl; it is the legislature, not the executive. Only the executive can do that, so the only way the HoC could affect that would be to either pressure the executive, or replace the PM via a VONCstodge said:
Yes, the ECJ judgement now looks absolutely critical and I agree the mood seems to be that leaving without a Deal would be the worst thing possible - I don't agree by the way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No deal depends on the A50 decision on monday. If A50 can be withdrawn by UK up to the 29th March the HOC large anti no deal majority will instruct its withdrawal
However, assuming the ECJ will rule kindly is to give a hostage to fortune - if the ruling is A50 cannot be withdrawn once invoked, we will be heading for an orderly exit without a Deal on 29/3/19.0 -
This is the problem with No Deal
https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665
Lots of people think it means Status Quo.0 -
A lot of people on here who seem to know a lot about it have been saying the MV cannot be used for it - in the same way it cannot be used to amend for a referendum - as it is not primary legislation and so cannot be used to amend primary legislation.eek said:
Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.Richard_Tyndall said:
My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.0 -
No it needs primary legislation to revoke and supersede the Withdrawal bill.eek said:
Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.Richard_Tyndall said:
My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
Now you might know better than a former clerk of the Commons, but I doubt it.0 -
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Boris in trouble with standards committee and he must apology to the HOC as soon as possible
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Well done Boris.Scott_P said:0 -
Our population is 2 people per square kilometre, twice as densely populated as the ward to the north of us. However our major claim to fame is that this is the biggest local government ward in the UK and probably Europe. To drive from one end, Reiff, to the other, Glenelg, is 126 miles. Ullapool is the biggest centre of population at 1900 souls and I'm off to cast my vote for our Green candidate Irene Brandt now. By the way Ullapool is a ferry port, but the ferry goes west to Stornoway not east to Inverness as HYFUD thinks.Verulamius said:Local by elections today.
http://britainelects.com/2018/12/05/previews-06-dec-2018/
The big one is Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh which is 1,190 square miles in size and includes the infamous ferry port of Ullapool.0 -
As a result of the Grieve amendment to the standing orders, it’s possible that the Commons can instruct the Government to introduce a vote. Not clear until tested. Parliament can definitely amend relevant legislation to amend that law, so in the absence of the Grieve option working it would depend what legislation the Government introduces.Richard_Tyndall said:
My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.0 -
Except the rest will never, ever be silence.AlastairMeeks said:
This feels like they're heading for the finale of Hamlet.edmundintokyo said:
Then there's the Mueller subplot waiting to drop as well. It's kind of like the Walking Dead seasons with Negan where they spent two full years just meandering around exploring all these different characters and tribes before finally bringing everything together in the last few weeks.AlastairMeeks said:
Whoever is scripting this crisis, you have to admire their sense of dramatic timing.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky just reported the ECJ ruling on A50 will be delivered on Monday, just in time for the vote
Although the finale wasn't that great tbh.0 -
I can already hear the cries of "you didn't know what you voted for" if the plebs vote for no deal in a referendum.Scott_P said:This is the problem with No Deal
https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665
Lots of people think it means Status Quo.0 -
I just guessed the opposite, but have no pretensions to know better than a former clerk - do you have a link for that and any more on the reasoning? I’m fairly sure there are precedents of finance bills being amended to change various tax acts which weren’t amended in the original drafting of the finance bill in question, though generally it would be clear that the ultimate outcome is in line with the overall intention of the bill.TheScreamingEagles said:
No it needs primary legislation to revoke and supersede the Withdrawal bill.eek said:
Nope, such a vote could be introduced in an amendment to any suitable act or motion and the meaningful vote is probably a suitable candidate.Richard_Tyndall said:
My understanding is that this is in two parts.paulyork64 said:
Can HoC revoke A50 by a simple majority vote?
It needs a legislative vote by the HoC to change the law that set A50 in motion. I think such a vote can only be introduced by the Government.
It then needs the Government to actually go and do the formal revoking bit by letter.
Now you might know better than a former clerk of the Commons, but I doubt it.0 -
A revelatory moment of Raab-like proportions for HYFUD.topherdawson said:By the way Ullapool is a ferry port, but the ferry goes west to Stornoway not east to Inverness as HYFUD thinks.
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I think this is the Corbyn Paradox - the more that Brexit goes wrong, the more likely he is to become PM BUT the harder it would be to get through his agenda while firefighting Brexit.HYUFD said:
As Hislop said yesterday a general election solves nothing. Even if Corbyn becomes PM it would then just switch to Labour divisions and infighting, toing and froing from Brussels and still a likely hung parliamentTOPPING said:There is no upside at all for the Cons to have a general election. If they win they are back where they started and if they lose, well then they will have lost.
The only benefit would be a back me or sack me plea to the electorate on the Deal. Because that is the only Cons policy right now and they don't have time to find a new leader and a new Brexit policy in the meantime.
But then that sounds a lot like a referendum given the option at a GE would likely be the deal or Lab staying in.
On the other hand if he helped May get the deal through then a PM Corbyn would have a clean slate to get his agenda through, BUT be less likely to win the election.0 -
That's the problem when you dismiss the benefits of the status quo as "Project Fear". People think any change retains those benefits.Scott_P said:This is the problem with No Deal
https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665
Lots of people think it means Status Quo.0 -
Probably best to make sure that it’s fully defined in any referendum question (‘the government has already enacted legislation mandating that in the event of no deal it will raise taxes by x, cut spending by £y and immediately begin the following preparations at a cost of £z’) to avoid that risk.Xenon said:
I can already hear the cries of "you didn't know what you voted for" if the plebs vote for no deal in a referendum.Scott_P said:This is the problem with No Deal
https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1070584871444209665
Lots of people think it means Status Quo.0 -
!topherdawson said:
Our population is 2 people per square kilometreVerulamius said:Local by elections today.
http://britainelects.com/2018/12/05/previews-06-dec-2018/
The big one is Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh which is 1,190 square miles in size and includes the infamous ferry port of Ullapool.
Are you voting for the Milkman/Postman/Teacher/Janitor
or the Mechanic/Electrician/Plumber/Taxi driver?
Even as someone who has lived in fairly small towns I can't imagine it. Greens are always a good choice hope they do well.
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